Industrials

Based on the last close, we expect Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) to replace Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP) in the MSCI Japan Index at the May QCIR.
Passive trackers will need to buy less than 1x ADV on Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) while selling over 5x ADV on Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP).
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) trades cheaper than its closest peers and there are some interesting market neutral trades there.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO Loses Ground to the Board’s New Five-Year Plan

The Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board has tried every tactic to delay YFO’s JPY1,000 tender offer. The Board’s new five-year medium-term management plan tilts the fight in its favour.
The Board’s new management plan, particularly the dividend payout, now provides shareholders with a credible alternative to accepting YFOs’ tender offer. The payout ratio for FY23-FY25 is set at 100%.
YFO’s primary tactic is to replace the Board at the June AGM, but shareholders have less reason to support it. Improving sentiment and the offer continue to underpin the shares.

Sinotrans (598 HK): We Are Concerned About the near Term Challenges

While we like Sinotrans (598 HK) in the long term, we are caution that 1Q23 result may be disappointing. Its 4Q22 earnings already showed 49.1% YoY and 73.3% QoQ decline.
Indicators including China’s PMI new export orders, export growth, container shipping freight rates (SCFI) and airfreight rates all showed that the recovery trend is weak.
9% of FY22 profit is from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated, and this may not happen again. Consensus forecast of just 10% decline in FY23 net profit seems overly optimistic.

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Apr 06

Daily Brief Industrials: Toyo Construction, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Sinotrans and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast – 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands
MSCI Japan May QCIR: Couple of Potential Changes
Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO Loses Ground to the Board’s New Five-Year Plan
Sinotrans (598 HK): We Are Concerned About the near Term Challenges

Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast – 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands

By Travis Lundy

Two weeks ago, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).
Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO’s ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO’s foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.
Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small.

MSCI Japan May QCIR: Couple of Potential Changes

Based on the last close, we expect Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) to replace Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP) in the MSCI Japan Index at the May QCIR.
Passive trackers will need to buy less than 1x ADV on Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) while selling over 5x ADV on Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP).
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) trades cheaper than its closest peers and there are some interesting market neutral trades there.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO Loses Ground to the Board’s New Five-Year Plan

The Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board has tried every tactic to delay YFO’s JPY1,000 tender offer. The Board’s new five-year medium-term management plan tilts the fight in its favour.
The Board’s new management plan, particularly the dividend payout, now provides shareholders with a credible alternative to accepting YFOs’ tender offer. The payout ratio for FY23-FY25 is set at 100%.
YFO’s primary tactic is to replace the Board at the June AGM, but shareholders have less reason to support it. Improving sentiment and the offer continue to underpin the shares.

Sinotrans (598 HK): We Are Concerned About the near Term Challenges

While we like Sinotrans (598 HK) in the long term, we are caution that 1Q23 result may be disappointing. Its 4Q22 earnings already showed 49.1% YoY and 73.3% QoQ decline.
Indicators including China’s PMI new export orders, export growth, container shipping freight rates (SCFI) and airfreight rates all showed that the recovery trend is weak.
9% of FY22 profit is from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated, and this may not happen again. Consensus forecast of just 10% decline in FY23 net profit seems overly optimistic.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Apr 05

Daily Brief Industrials: Avalon Technologies, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, JD Industrials, Masco Corp, Hunt (Jb) Transprt Svcs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Avalon Technologies IPO- Forensic Analysis
MSCI India May QCIR: Potential Changes & Special Treatment of Adani Group Stocks
JD Industrials Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Masco Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Acquisitions
Masco Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Developments

Avalon Technologies IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Avalon Technologies (6594468Z IN) has launched its Initial Public Offering.
The company states to have one of the highest ROCEs in the industry, one of the important reasons of high ROCE is unusual accounting treatment of capital reserve.
Other forensic concerns include lack of cash generation and some auditor discomforts.

MSCI India May QCIR: Potential Changes & Special Treatment of Adani Group Stocks

Currently, we see 1 high probability inclusion and 2 high probability deletions from the MSCI India Index at the May QCIR. Plus there are stocks close to the cutoffs.
There will be selling on two Adani Group stocks following a lowering of the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF). That could increase if one of them is deleted from the index.
As expected, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) has continued to move higher post the placement and there could be more buying in the weeks ahead.

JD Industrials Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

JD Industrials (2231713D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International.
JD Industrials (JDI) is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
JDI’s platform offers 48 product categories and approximately 42.5m SKUs as of FY22 (31st Dec 2022).

Masco Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Masco Corporation is a major player involved in the design, manufacture and distribution of home improvement and building products.
Over the year, DIY paint saw low single-digit growth which has impacted their growth.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Acquisitions

This is our first report on a J.B.
Hunt Transport, a major global transportation and logistics player.
Consolidated sales for the quarter 4% year over year, but operating income and GAAP earnings per share decreased by 13% and 16%, respectively.

Masco Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Developments

This is our first report on Masco Corporation, a major global player involved in the design, manufacture and distribution of home improvement and building products.
Plumbing increased by 2% in local currency, with a 7% increase in overseas plumbing offsetting a 1% fall in North American plumbing.
Over the year, DIY paint saw low single-digit growth, while professional paint saw over 25% growth.

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Apr 05

Daily Brief Industrials: Avalon Technologies, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, JD Industrials, Masco Corp, Hunt (Jb) Transprt Svcs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Avalon Technologies IPO- Forensic Analysis
MSCI India May QCIR: Potential Changes & Special Treatment of Adani Group Stocks
JD Industrials Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Masco Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Acquisitions
Masco Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Developments

Avalon Technologies IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Avalon Technologies (6594468Z IN) has launched its Initial Public Offering.
The company states to have one of the highest ROCEs in the industry, one of the important reasons of high ROCE is unusual accounting treatment of capital reserve.
Other forensic concerns include lack of cash generation and some auditor discomforts.

MSCI India May QCIR: Potential Changes & Special Treatment of Adani Group Stocks

Currently, we see 1 high probability inclusion and 2 high probability deletions from the MSCI India Index at the May QCIR. Plus there are stocks close to the cutoffs.
There will be selling on two Adani Group stocks following a lowering of the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF). That could increase if one of them is deleted from the index.
As expected, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) has continued to move higher post the placement and there could be more buying in the weeks ahead.

JD Industrials Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

JD Industrials (2231713D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International.
JD Industrials (JDI) is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
JDI’s platform offers 48 product categories and approximately 42.5m SKUs as of FY22 (31st Dec 2022).

Masco Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Masco Corporation is a major player involved in the design, manufacture and distribution of home improvement and building products.
Over the year, DIY paint saw low single-digit growth which has impacted their growth.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Acquisitions

This is our first report on a J.B.
Hunt Transport, a major global transportation and logistics player.
Consolidated sales for the quarter 4% year over year, but operating income and GAAP earnings per share decreased by 13% and 16%, respectively.

Masco Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Developments

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

This is our first report on Masco Corporation, a major global player involved in the design, manufacture and distribution of home improvement and building products.
Plumbing increased by 2% in local currency, with a 7% increase in overseas plumbing offsetting a 1% fall in North American plumbing.
Over the year, DIY paint saw low single-digit growth, while professional paint saw over 25% growth.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Apr 04

Daily Brief Industrials: Visional and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down

HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down

This is the Fourth and Final of the HRTech Sector series and we will be discussing Ceridian, ADP, Recruit and Visional performance over the last quarter.
The remarkable growth spurt experienced post-Covid seems to be slowing down and margins and revenues have mostly returned to pre-COVID levels.
With digitisation of workplace, the market is expected to see further advancement in categories such as employee experience, talent intelligence, contract workforce management, etc.

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Apr 04

Daily Brief Industrials: Visional and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down

HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

This is the Fourth and Final of the HRTech Sector series and we will be discussing Ceridian, ADP, Recruit and Visional performance over the last quarter.
The remarkable growth spurt experienced post-Covid seems to be slowing down and margins and revenues have mostly returned to pre-COVID levels.
With digitisation of workplace, the market is expected to see further advancement in categories such as employee experience, talent intelligence, contract workforce management, etc.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 03

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Hyundai Elevator Co, Dongfang Electric, Hainan Meilan International Airport, Virgin Galactic Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) – Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius
Hyundai Elevator: Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-Eun Loses A Major Lawsuit Against Schindler Group
Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Heading Towards Another Fruitful Year
Meilan Airport (357 HK): Higher Visibility into Earnings Recovery Outlook
Space Race Reality Check

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) – Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo.
Lowest spreads Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP).

Hyundai Elevator: Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-Eun Loses A Major Lawsuit Against Schindler Group

By Douglas Kim

On 30 March, it was announced that Hyun Jeong-Eun (Chairwoman of the Hyundai Group) lost a final lawsuit against the Schindler Group.
The Supreme Court upheld an appeal court ruling that Chairwoman Hyun needs to pay 170 billion won (US$131 million) and delayed interest payments to Hyundai Elevator.
Although this major lawsuit loss for Chairwoman Hyun is a tremendous catalyst, the downturn in the construction sector and uncertainty in the reduction in Chairwoman’s stake remain key negatives.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Heading Towards Another Fruitful Year

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)‘s 35.1% increase in FY22 recurring earnings demonstrated its healthy operations. Slowdown in 4Q22 (+14.4% YoY) is more a result of pandemic disruption.
Record new orders of Rmb65.6bn were signed FY22 (+16.3% YoY), and 4Q22 even saw a 25% growth. End-FY22 backlog is estimated to be enough to cover 1.66x FY22 revenue.
DEC targets a 35% growth in power generation equipment production volume in FY23. Power storage, including pumped storage, and hydrogen energy are important engines going forward.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Higher Visibility into Earnings Recovery Outlook

By Eric Chen

FY22 results announced last week were in line excluding non-recurring items. The results provided latest evidence of monetization potential of its passenger traffic and insights into its cost base.
We trim 2023 net profit estimate by 10% to RMB520 million and maintain RMB1 billion net profit estimate for 2025. Expect 25%/150% return by 2023/25 respectively based on 20x P/E.
Duty-Free concession agreement renewal in 2025 is a key positive catalyst, but we also caution potential follow-on share issuance this year could be an overhang on stock price.

Space Race Reality Check

By subSPAC

This week, space launch company Virgin Galactic’s funding woes escalated as emergency talks with potential investors fell through.
As a result, the company announced a staggering 85% workforce reduction and paused operations until further funding is secured.
Since going public in 2021 with a $3.7 billion valuation, Virgin Orbit’s value has plummeted by 99% as of its last close, highlighting the realities of space investing.

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 03

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Hyundai Elevator Co, Dongfang Electric, Hainan Meilan International Airport, Virgin Galactic Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) – Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius
Hyundai Elevator: Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-Eun Loses A Major Lawsuit Against Schindler Group
Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Heading Towards Another Fruitful Year
Meilan Airport (357 HK): Higher Visibility into Earnings Recovery Outlook
Space Race Reality Check

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) – Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo.
Lowest spreads Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP).

Hyundai Elevator: Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-Eun Loses A Major Lawsuit Against Schindler Group

By Douglas Kim

On 30 March, it was announced that Hyun Jeong-Eun (Chairwoman of the Hyundai Group) lost a final lawsuit against the Schindler Group.
The Supreme Court upheld an appeal court ruling that Chairwoman Hyun needs to pay 170 billion won (US$131 million) and delayed interest payments to Hyundai Elevator.
Although this major lawsuit loss for Chairwoman Hyun is a tremendous catalyst, the downturn in the construction sector and uncertainty in the reduction in Chairwoman’s stake remain key negatives.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Heading Towards Another Fruitful Year

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)‘s 35.1% increase in FY22 recurring earnings demonstrated its healthy operations. Slowdown in 4Q22 (+14.4% YoY) is more a result of pandemic disruption.
Record new orders of Rmb65.6bn were signed FY22 (+16.3% YoY), and 4Q22 even saw a 25% growth. End-FY22 backlog is estimated to be enough to cover 1.66x FY22 revenue.
DEC targets a 35% growth in power generation equipment production volume in FY23. Power storage, including pumped storage, and hydrogen energy are important engines going forward.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Higher Visibility into Earnings Recovery Outlook

By Eric Chen

FY22 results announced last week were in line excluding non-recurring items. The results provided latest evidence of monetization potential of its passenger traffic and insights into its cost base.
We trim 2023 net profit estimate by 10% to RMB520 million and maintain RMB1 billion net profit estimate for 2025. Expect 25%/150% return by 2023/25 respectively based on 20x P/E.
Duty-Free concession agreement renewal in 2025 is a key positive catalyst, but we also caution potential follow-on share issuance this year could be an overhang on stock price.

Space Race Reality Check

By subSPAC

This week, space launch company Virgin Galactic’s funding woes escalated as emergency talks with potential investors fell through.
As a result, the company announced a staggering 85% workforce reduction and paused operations until further funding is secured.
Since going public in 2021 with a $3.7 billion valuation, Virgin Orbit’s value has plummeted by 99% as of its last close, highlighting the realities of space investing.

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✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 02

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Quanta Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba
Quanta Services Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
Quanta Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Recent Developments

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

There are 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Albemarle (ALB US)‘s Liontown Resources (LTR AU) tilt; Malteries Soufflet’s United Malt (UMG AU) Offer; Bain Capital’s Estia (EHE AU) Offer.
Key updates took place for Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), andGolden Energy & Resources (GER SP).

Quanta Services Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Quanta Services is a key player providing infrastructure solutions for the electric and gas utility, renewable energy, communications, and pipeline and energy industries across the globe.
Its revenues for Electric Power Infrastructure Solutions reached significant levels, maintained margins, and grew market share.
In addition, their subsurface utility and infrastructure solutions division continually delivered a strong performance.

Quanta Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Recent Developments

This is our first report on Quanta Services, a major provider of infrastructure solutions for the electric and gas utility, renewable energy, communications, and pipeline and energy industries.
Its revenues for Electric Power Infrastructure Solutions reached significant levels, maintained margins, and grew market share.
In addition, their subsurface utility and infrastructure solutions division continually delivered a strong performance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 02

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Quanta Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba
Quanta Services Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
Quanta Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Recent Developments

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

There are 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Albemarle (ALB US)‘s Liontown Resources (LTR AU) tilt; Malteries Soufflet’s United Malt (UMG AU) Offer; Bain Capital’s Estia (EHE AU) Offer.
Key updates took place for Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), andGolden Energy & Resources (GER SP).

Quanta Services Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Quanta Services is a key player providing infrastructure solutions for the electric and gas utility, renewable energy, communications, and pipeline and energy industries across the globe.
Its revenues for Electric Power Infrastructure Solutions reached significant levels, maintained margins, and grew market share.
In addition, their subsurface utility and infrastructure solutions division continually delivered a strong performance.

Quanta Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Recent Developments