Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, O S Co Ltd, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International, Korean Air Lines, COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Braemar Shipping Services PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain
  • Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February
  • New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)
  • Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain

By Clarence Chu

  • The Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise US$155m from trimming a portion of its stake in Ircon International (IRCON IN), assuming the deal upsizes.
  • Assuming the deal upsizes, while it would represent 8% of the firm’s current shares outstanding, it would only represent 3.8 days of its three month ADV, given its strong liquidity.
  • Given that it isn’t the first time the GoI has sold its stake in IRCON, the selldown here should be expected, in our view.

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

By Neil Glynn

  • The European Commission has confirmed it aims to make a preliminary decision on the proposed Korean Air/Asiana merger by 14 February.
  • Plans to sell Asiana Cargo may struggle to find a buyer, while the US has also highlighted concerns regarding the merger, and Japan has yet to provide approval.
  • We continue to highlight there is a strong argument for Korean Air continuing alone, as Asiana continues to struggle to achieve profitability, with a stretched balance sheet.

New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One

By Travis Lundy

  • The deal from Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) appears language I did not get the first time around. The JPY 1800/share price is a proposed combined value.
  • The deal would then lower the TOB price to Pasona, and share the benefits from that lower price to Benefit One minorities. 
  • That suggests more upside to Benefit One than I originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona.

2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (COPRO) announced its 2Q FY24/3 results after market close on Tuesday, November 14, 2023.
  • Key consolidated figures included net sales of ¥11,137 mn (+28.5% YoY), operating profit of ¥737 mn (+56.9% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥810 mn (+71.8% YoY), and net income attributable to the parent company of ¥510 mn (+81.9% YoY).
  • Sales were largely in line with initial forecasts, while profits were 61.4% higher than initial forecasts, mainly due to lower back-office-related labor costs. 

Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar’s H124 results were in line with expectations with revenues up by 8%, but operating profits were down, having been hit by one-off costs. The underlying operations continue to expand and diversify, and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying revenue and operating profit estimates for FY24 and FY25 and retain our 520p per share valuation, offering c 85% upside.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, O S Co Ltd, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International, Korean Air Lines, COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Braemar Shipping Services PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain
  • Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February
  • New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)
  • Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain

By Clarence Chu

  • The Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise US$155m from trimming a portion of its stake in Ircon International (IRCON IN), assuming the deal upsizes.
  • Assuming the deal upsizes, while it would represent 8% of the firm’s current shares outstanding, it would only represent 3.8 days of its three month ADV, given its strong liquidity.
  • Given that it isn’t the first time the GoI has sold its stake in IRCON, the selldown here should be expected, in our view.

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

By Neil Glynn

  • The European Commission has confirmed it aims to make a preliminary decision on the proposed Korean Air/Asiana merger by 14 February.
  • Plans to sell Asiana Cargo may struggle to find a buyer, while the US has also highlighted concerns regarding the merger, and Japan has yet to provide approval.
  • We continue to highlight there is a strong argument for Korean Air continuing alone, as Asiana continues to struggle to achieve profitability, with a stretched balance sheet.

New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One

By Travis Lundy

  • The deal from Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) appears language I did not get the first time around. The JPY 1800/share price is a proposed combined value.
  • The deal would then lower the TOB price to Pasona, and share the benefits from that lower price to Benefit One minorities. 
  • That suggests more upside to Benefit One than I originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona.

2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (COPRO) announced its 2Q FY24/3 results after market close on Tuesday, November 14, 2023.
  • Key consolidated figures included net sales of ¥11,137 mn (+28.5% YoY), operating profit of ¥737 mn (+56.9% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥810 mn (+71.8% YoY), and net income attributable to the parent company of ¥510 mn (+81.9% YoY).
  • Sales were largely in line with initial forecasts, while profits were 61.4% higher than initial forecasts, mainly due to lower back-office-related labor costs. 

Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar’s H124 results were in line with expectations with revenues up by 8%, but operating profits were down, having been hit by one-off costs. The underlying operations continue to expand and diversify, and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying revenue and operating profit estimates for FY24 and FY25 and retain our 520p per share valuation, offering c 85% upside.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Harmonic Drive Systems, Japan Airlines, Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping Group Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering
  • Harmonic Drive Placement – Cleanup Share Sale Will Remove the Overhang
  • Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery
  • Shanghai Port’s Shipping Service Spinoff Surges 58.6% in Strong Debut


Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) in an overseas placement. 
  • This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.
  • Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. 

Harmonic Drive Placement – Cleanup Share Sale Will Remove the Overhang

By Clarence Chu

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is looking to raise US$116m from selling its entire stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP).
  • Toyota Motors has indicated over the past one-two weeks that it will be looking to sell/trim its stakes in various entities as part of its exit from its multiple cross-holdings.
  • While the deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 10 days of ADV, Toyota Motors will be selling its entire stake, clearing the overhang.

Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Japan Airlines (9201 JP) (JAL) is making a positive recovery on strong domestic and international demand
  • Weak JPY is a big headwind and so is its 40% fuel hedge cover locked in at higher than-market price. These factors should reverse and unwind next year 
  • Target price JPY3,150 based on 1.65x FY24 P/BV – one standard deviation above its mean. Borderline attractive with 12% UPSIDE, and 2.3% dividend yield  

Shanghai Port’s Shipping Service Spinoff Surges 58.6% in Strong Debut

By Caixin Global

  • Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping Group Co. Ltd., the shipping business unit of Shanghai International Port Group, gained 58.6% in its trading debut in Shanghai after a 2.18 billion yuan ($306 million) initial public offering.
  • The container shipping service provider finished its first day of trading at 17.84 yuan a share, giving it a market cap of 23.1 billion yuan.
  • Jinjiang Shipping was spun off from the world’s largest container port operator for a separate listing on the mainboard of Shanghai stock exchange.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Harmonic Drive Systems, Japan Airlines, Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping Group Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering
  • Harmonic Drive Placement – Cleanup Share Sale Will Remove the Overhang
  • Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery
  • Shanghai Port’s Shipping Service Spinoff Surges 58.6% in Strong Debut


Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) in an overseas placement. 
  • This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.
  • Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. 

Harmonic Drive Placement – Cleanup Share Sale Will Remove the Overhang

By Clarence Chu

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is looking to raise US$116m from selling its entire stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP).
  • Toyota Motors has indicated over the past one-two weeks that it will be looking to sell/trim its stakes in various entities as part of its exit from its multiple cross-holdings.
  • While the deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 10 days of ADV, Toyota Motors will be selling its entire stake, clearing the overhang.

Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Japan Airlines (9201 JP) (JAL) is making a positive recovery on strong domestic and international demand
  • Weak JPY is a big headwind and so is its 40% fuel hedge cover locked in at higher than-market price. These factors should reverse and unwind next year 
  • Target price JPY3,150 based on 1.65x FY24 P/BV – one standard deviation above its mean. Borderline attractive with 12% UPSIDE, and 2.3% dividend yield  

Shanghai Port’s Shipping Service Spinoff Surges 58.6% in Strong Debut

By Caixin Global

  • Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping Group Co. Ltd., the shipping business unit of Shanghai International Port Group, gained 58.6% in its trading debut in Shanghai after a 2.18 billion yuan ($306 million) initial public offering.
  • The container shipping service provider finished its first day of trading at 17.84 yuan a share, giving it a market cap of 23.1 billion yuan.
  • Jinjiang Shipping was spun off from the world’s largest container port operator for a separate listing on the mainboard of Shanghai stock exchange.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Ps Mitsubishi Construction, US Global Jets ETF, China Airlines, Russell 2000 Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
  • JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base
  • China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges
  • Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

By Travis Lundy

  • The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
  • This hasn’t been a very “exciting” trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
  • Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.

JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base

By Mohshin Aziz


China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China Airlines (2610 TT) will deliver record profit in 2023 on strong passenger and rising cargo rates
  • Beyond 2023, hard to forecast due to high exposure (~30%) to volatile cargo, and it lacks brand recognition and customer loyalty evidenced by its weaker yields to local rival   
  • Target price of TWD23 based on 1.71x FY2024 P/BV ratio – one SD above mean. Limited 6% UPSIDE, with 3,9% dividend yield. Prefer Eva Airways (2618 TT) 

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

By Joe Jasper

  • Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
  • The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
  • Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish

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Daily Brief Industrials: Ps Mitsubishi Construction, US Global Jets ETF, China Airlines, Russell 2000 Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
  • JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base
  • China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges
  • Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

By Travis Lundy

  • The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
  • This hasn’t been a very “exciting” trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
  • Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.

JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base

By Mohshin Aziz


China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China Airlines (2610 TT) will deliver record profit in 2023 on strong passenger and rising cargo rates
  • Beyond 2023, hard to forecast due to high exposure (~30%) to volatile cargo, and it lacks brand recognition and customer loyalty evidenced by its weaker yields to local rival   
  • Target price of TWD23 based on 1.71x FY2024 P/BV ratio – one SD above mean. Limited 6% UPSIDE, with 3,9% dividend yield. Prefer Eva Airways (2618 TT) 

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

By Joe Jasper

  • Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
  • The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
  • Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish

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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Hankook & Company, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, Eva Airways, Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.,, Sanyo Trading, Norcros PLC, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
  • Elder Brother Cho Hyun-Sik Joins Hands With MBK Partners to Tender Offer Hankook & Co. Shares
  • Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals
  • Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23): Back to Net Buying Led by Autos, SZ Inovance, HSR
  • Eva Airways (2618 TT, BUY, TP:TWD34.90) The Best, but Not the Cheapest
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Aiming to Elevate to a Higher-Quality Business
  • Norcros – UK margins up materially, South Africa stabilising
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land


Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

By Travis Lundy

  • Since the announcement of the Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) partial offer, the stock has traded 16+mm shares in the market, which is about 40% of Real World Float.
  • Some of that has been traded multiple times. Looking only at that data would suggest a higher pro-ration, but I expect there is other data one must take into account.
  • Benefit One shares are currently trading at a level suggesting either lower participation OR higher back-end despite the earnings guidance downgrade at announcement.

Elder Brother Cho Hyun-Sik Joins Hands With MBK Partners to Tender Offer Hankook & Co. Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Cho Hyun-Sik has joined hands with MBK Partners to make a tender offer for shares of Hankook & Co for a minimum of 20.35% and maximum of 27.32% stake.
  • The tender offer price is 20,000 won which is 18.9% higher than the closing price of 16,820 won on Monday.
  • Chairman Cho Hyun-Bum may try to find a strategic ally to launch his own tender offer of Hankook & Co shares at even higher tender offer price than 20,000 won.

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023
  • We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024
  • Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights

Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today
  • Taiwan’s carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism
  • Investors seem to be pricing in a ’24 earnings collapse that probably won’t happen

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23): Back to Net Buying Led by Autos, SZ Inovance, HSR

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • Kweichow Moutai and Contemporary Amperex continue in the top 5 of gross flows but BYD and Chongking Changan Auto are now in the top 5 of nets and gross.
  • Last week, NORTHBOUND were net buyers of RMB 1.61bn. BYD, Wuxi Apptec, and Chongking Changan Auto were joined by Shenzhen Inovance and Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail in the top five.

Eva Airways (2618 TT, BUY, TP:TWD34.90) The Best, but Not the Cheapest

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Eva Airways (2618 TT) (EVA) is enjoying the perfect tailwind of strong demand from both inbound and outbound, capacity deficit, a resurgence in corporate travel, and rising cargo rates   
  • Consensus believes FY2023 will be peak earnings as 2024 capacity rollout will balance the demand-supply, but our observations suggest things will likely remain the same until the end of 1H24
  • Target price of TWD34.90 based on 13.4x FY2024 PE ratio – its long-term mean. Borderline attractive with a modest 11% UPSIDE, but 5.9% dividend yield is a sweetener  

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Aiming to Elevate to a Higher-Quality Business

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Business investment and targeting growth – we view Sanyo Trading’s new long-term plan as a step in the right direction for the company to become a higher-quality business.
  • Whilst investment activities and macro headwinds may limit short-term growth prospects, the company has indicated ¥20bn to ¥30bn 5-year cumulative allocation in human capital, DX implementation, and M&A, which should drive transformation into a more diversified and resilient business.
  • This commitment by management demonstrates its aim to drive higher returns by leveraging its core strengths of product differentiation, strong technical staff, and maintaining high customer success in new products and activities.

Norcros – UK margins up materially, South Africa stabilising

By Edison Investment Research

Norcros’s compelling investment case was underpinned at the half year where underlying operating profit was down less than 3% despite material revenue pressure. Group operating margins rose 60bp, the UK business reported record underlying profits and Norcros continued to take market share in both the UK and South Africa. We believe that Norcros’s key strengths are underappreciated and that legacy issues, notably the pension deficit, have been resolved. We retain our estimates and value the shares at 246p, implying c 50% upside.


Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Hankook & Company, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, Eva Airways, Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.,, Sanyo Trading, Norcros PLC, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
  • Elder Brother Cho Hyun-Sik Joins Hands With MBK Partners to Tender Offer Hankook & Co. Shares
  • Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals
  • Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23): Back to Net Buying Led by Autos, SZ Inovance, HSR
  • Eva Airways (2618 TT, BUY, TP:TWD34.90) The Best, but Not the Cheapest
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Aiming to Elevate to a Higher-Quality Business
  • Norcros – UK margins up materially, South Africa stabilising
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land


Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

By Travis Lundy

  • Since the announcement of the Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) partial offer, the stock has traded 16+mm shares in the market, which is about 40% of Real World Float.
  • Some of that has been traded multiple times. Looking only at that data would suggest a higher pro-ration, but I expect there is other data one must take into account.
  • Benefit One shares are currently trading at a level suggesting either lower participation OR higher back-end despite the earnings guidance downgrade at announcement.

Elder Brother Cho Hyun-Sik Joins Hands With MBK Partners to Tender Offer Hankook & Co. Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Cho Hyun-Sik has joined hands with MBK Partners to make a tender offer for shares of Hankook & Co for a minimum of 20.35% and maximum of 27.32% stake.
  • The tender offer price is 20,000 won which is 18.9% higher than the closing price of 16,820 won on Monday.
  • Chairman Cho Hyun-Bum may try to find a strategic ally to launch his own tender offer of Hankook & Co shares at even higher tender offer price than 20,000 won.

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023
  • We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024
  • Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights

Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today
  • Taiwan’s carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism
  • Investors seem to be pricing in a ’24 earnings collapse that probably won’t happen

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23): Back to Net Buying Led by Autos, SZ Inovance, HSR

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • Kweichow Moutai and Contemporary Amperex continue in the top 5 of gross flows but BYD and Chongking Changan Auto are now in the top 5 of nets and gross.
  • Last week, NORTHBOUND were net buyers of RMB 1.61bn. BYD, Wuxi Apptec, and Chongking Changan Auto were joined by Shenzhen Inovance and Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail in the top five.

Eva Airways (2618 TT, BUY, TP:TWD34.90) The Best, but Not the Cheapest

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Eva Airways (2618 TT) (EVA) is enjoying the perfect tailwind of strong demand from both inbound and outbound, capacity deficit, a resurgence in corporate travel, and rising cargo rates   
  • Consensus believes FY2023 will be peak earnings as 2024 capacity rollout will balance the demand-supply, but our observations suggest things will likely remain the same until the end of 1H24
  • Target price of TWD34.90 based on 13.4x FY2024 PE ratio – its long-term mean. Borderline attractive with a modest 11% UPSIDE, but 5.9% dividend yield is a sweetener  

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Aiming to Elevate to a Higher-Quality Business

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Business investment and targeting growth – we view Sanyo Trading’s new long-term plan as a step in the right direction for the company to become a higher-quality business.
  • Whilst investment activities and macro headwinds may limit short-term growth prospects, the company has indicated ¥20bn to ¥30bn 5-year cumulative allocation in human capital, DX implementation, and M&A, which should drive transformation into a more diversified and resilient business.
  • This commitment by management demonstrates its aim to drive higher returns by leveraging its core strengths of product differentiation, strong technical staff, and maintaining high customer success in new products and activities.

Norcros – UK margins up materially, South Africa stabilising

By Edison Investment Research

Norcros’s compelling investment case was underpinned at the half year where underlying operating profit was down less than 3% despite material revenue pressure. Group operating margins rose 60bp, the UK business reported record underlying profits and Norcros continued to take market share in both the UK and South Africa. We believe that Norcros’s key strengths are underappreciated and that legacy issues, notably the pension deficit, have been resolved. We retain our estimates and value the shares at 246p, implying c 50% upside.


Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Uber Technologies , Taiwan Secom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
  • Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st December 2023.
  • The index changes were mostly in line with our final expectations.
  • In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

By Brian Freitas

  • The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
  • There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
  • Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Uber Technologies , Taiwan Secom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
  • Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st December 2023.
  • The index changes were mostly in line with our final expectations.
  • In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

By Brian Freitas

  • The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
  • There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
  • Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars