Industrials

Lyft, Inc. delivered significant results in the quarter.
Revenue increased by 3% year over year to $1.021 billion.
In July, Lyft saw sustained robust supply trends, with 25% more drivers using Lyft than the previous year and driver hours increasing by nearly 45% year over year.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Preview: Watching Order Trends, Margins in 1QFY24 Report

MillerKnoll reports 1QFY24 after market close on Tuesday, September 26. It will host its earnings conference call that afternoon, starting at 5:00 pm ET.
Our estimates are non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.20 on revenue of $889 million. Consensus is EPS of $0.21 on revenue of $896 million.
Management guidance is for revenue of $880-920 million and adjusted EPS of $0.18- 0.24.

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Sep 26

Daily Brief Industrials: Taiwan Secom, JSW Infrastructure, Toyo Construction, Kosaido, Lyft , MillerKnoll and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!
JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share
KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage
Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers
MillerKnoll, Inc. – Preview: Watching Order Trends, Margins in 1QFY24 Report

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
The estimate for one-way capping flow in December 2023 is US$1.2bn.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) will open up for its IPO subscription this week.
The company is into ports and maritime infrastructure and is the second largest commercial port operator in India in terms of cargo handling capacity.
While the company has grown rapidly, the financials do indicate few concerns such as critical dependence/high RPT with JSW group, high debt-high cash balance sheet, forex risk, etc.

YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share

By Travis Lundy

Last night Reuters teased a headline saying the Nintendo Family Office called YFO (and related entities) would raise its proposed takeover price for Toyo Construction to ¥1255/share.
Recently, the company had agreed to start an investigation and YFO had dropped its demands for an EGM. In Q1, the company reporetd Revenues +18.6%yoy, reasonably in-line with original guidance.
This new price comes at a 1% premium to previous close, and is meant to start discussions. The Board has indicated it will start deliberations tomorrow.

KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage

By Astris Advisory Japan

Robust barriers to entry and generating attractive returns – KOSAIDO Holdings is the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area, with a 70% market share in cremations.
The company’s robust economic moat is derived from its dominant market position as the primary operator of crematorium services in central Tokyo.
The low likelihood of new entrants due to stringent legal and political barriers further solidifies its competitive advantage.

Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers

Lyft, Inc. delivered significant results in the quarter.
Revenue increased by 3% year over year to $1.021 billion.
In July, Lyft saw sustained robust supply trends, with 25% more drivers using Lyft than the previous year and driver hours increasing by nearly 45% year over year.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Preview: Watching Order Trends, Margins in 1QFY24 Report

MillerKnoll reports 1QFY24 after market close on Tuesday, September 26. It will host its earnings conference call that afternoon, starting at 5:00 pm ET.
Our estimates are non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.20 on revenue of $889 million. Consensus is EPS of $0.21 on revenue of $896 million.
Management guidance is for revenue of $880-920 million and adjusted EPS of $0.18- 0.24.

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Industrials: Malaysia Airports Holdings, Lonking Holdings, S.F. Holding, Jyoti CNC Automation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Malaysia Airport (MAHB): Undervalued Tourism Play in SEA
Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)
Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Malaysia Airport (MAHB): Undervalued Tourism Play in SEA

By Henry Soediarko

Besides Thailand and Singapore, Malaysia is one of the countries in South East Asia that are popular tourists destination.
Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) is the airport operator that benefits from the tourism recovery in Malaysia.
Compared to Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Malaysia Airport is trading at a lower valuation, although it has recorded better operating numbers YTD.

Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By Osbert Tang, CFA

While valuations for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) do not appear expensive, there is a risk that the 2H23 earnings outlook is weaker than expected. This opens room for disappointment.
There is no sign that domestic sales have picked up and Jul-Aug was still down significantly. Meanwhile, the strong export in 1H23 has not sustained in the last two months.
The weaker A-share market so far in 2H23 also does not bode well for investment gains, which are important contributors to the impressive earnings rebound in 1H23.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)

Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies’ ASPs fell by far more
Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
We think SF Holding should outperform its “plain vanilla” express peers in medium-term

Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

Jyoti CNC Automation (0907734D IN) is looking to raise up to US$120m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Equirus, SBI Capital and ICICI Securities.
Jyoti CNC Automation is a manufacturer of simultaneous 5-Axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines with the second and twelfth largest market share in India and globally, respectively, according to F&S.
Its portfolio includes a range of CNC machines such as CNC Turning Centers, CNC Turn Mill Centers and CNC Vertical Machining Centers, amongst others.

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Industrials: Malaysia Airports Holdings, Lonking Holdings, S.F. Holding, Jyoti CNC Automation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Malaysia Airport (MAHB): Undervalued Tourism Play in SEA
Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)
Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Malaysia Airport (MAHB): Undervalued Tourism Play in SEA

By Henry Soediarko

Besides Thailand and Singapore, Malaysia is one of the countries in South East Asia that are popular tourists destination.
Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) is the airport operator that benefits from the tourism recovery in Malaysia.
Compared to Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Malaysia Airport is trading at a lower valuation, although it has recorded better operating numbers YTD.

Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By Osbert Tang, CFA

While valuations for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) do not appear expensive, there is a risk that the 2H23 earnings outlook is weaker than expected. This opens room for disappointment.
There is no sign that domestic sales have picked up and Jul-Aug was still down significantly. Meanwhile, the strong export in 1H23 has not sustained in the last two months.
The weaker A-share market so far in 2H23 also does not bode well for investment gains, which are important contributors to the impressive earnings rebound in 1H23.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)

Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies’ ASPs fell by far more
Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
We think SF Holding should outperform its “plain vanilla” express peers in medium-term

Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

Jyoti CNC Automation (0907734D IN) is looking to raise up to US$120m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Equirus, SBI Capital and ICICI Securities.
Jyoti CNC Automation is a manufacturer of simultaneous 5-Axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines with the second and twelfth largest market share in India and globally, respectively, according to F&S.
Its portfolio includes a range of CNC machines such as CNC Turning Centers, CNC Turn Mill Centers and CNC Vertical Machining Centers, amongst others.

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Sep 24

Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Robotics, Toshiba Corp, Steelcase Inc Cl A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Doosan Robotics Institutional Lockups Breakdown Leaked Pre-Disclosure: Analyzing Flow Schedule
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI
Steelcase, Inc. – Early 3Q Order Flow Rebounding; Raising Estimates

Doosan Robotics Institutional Lockups Breakdown Leaked Pre-Disclosure: Analyzing Flow Schedule

The immediate float rate on the listing date (October 5) has reached 19.25% as the institutional lockup volume is not as high as initially expected.
Even with a low institutional lockup level, there seems to be a possibility of a certain IPO day pop.
The first exit point we can look for in the short term would be the 1-month lockup release (1.44% of SO) one month after listing.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals this week: Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)‘s Scheme.
Key updates took place for: Costa Group (CGC AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Healius (HLS AU), Symbio (SYM AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM).

Steelcase, Inc. – Early 3Q Order Flow Rebounding; Raising Estimates

We are raising our estimates following an upbeat conference call and follow-up with SCS management.
Our adjusted 3QFY24 estimate, now at $0.25, is up from $0.21 and at the midpoint of guidance.
Full-year FY24 guidance is now $0.80-0.90. Our new FY24 EPS estimate is $0.88, up from $0.71 pre-release and near the top end of guidance.

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Sep 24

Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Robotics, Toshiba Corp, Steelcase Inc Cl A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Doosan Robotics Institutional Lockups Breakdown Leaked Pre-Disclosure: Analyzing Flow Schedule
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI
Steelcase, Inc. – Early 3Q Order Flow Rebounding; Raising Estimates

Doosan Robotics Institutional Lockups Breakdown Leaked Pre-Disclosure: Analyzing Flow Schedule

The immediate float rate on the listing date (October 5) has reached 19.25% as the institutional lockup volume is not as high as initially expected.
Even with a low institutional lockup level, there seems to be a possibility of a certain IPO day pop.
The first exit point we can look for in the short term would be the 1-month lockup release (1.44% of SO) one month after listing.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals this week: Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)‘s Scheme.
Key updates took place for: Costa Group (CGC AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Healius (HLS AU), Symbio (SYM AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM).

Steelcase, Inc. – Early 3Q Order Flow Rebounding; Raising Estimates

We are raising our estimates following an upbeat conference call and follow-up with SCS management.
Our adjusted 3QFY24 estimate, now at $0.25, is up from $0.21 and at the midpoint of guidance.
Full-year FY24 guidance is now $0.80-0.90. Our new FY24 EPS estimate is $0.88, up from $0.71 pre-release and near the top end of guidance.

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Sep 23

Daily Brief Industrials: SK Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

SK Inc: Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

SK Inc: Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 17.5 trillion won (NAV per share of 239,095 won), representing a 60% upside from current levels.
SK Inc has underperformed most other SK Group related companies YTD but this underperformance may be excessive and SK Inc could outperform as more value investors seek deeply discounted companies.
SK Inc’s dividend yield is 3.3%, which is higher than the dividend yields of most other major SK Group companies excluding SK Telecom which has a dividend yield of 6.5%.

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Sep 23

Daily Brief Industrials: SK Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

SK Inc: Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

SK Inc: Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 17.5 trillion won (NAV per share of 239,095 won), representing a 60% upside from current levels.
SK Inc has underperformed most other SK Group related companies YTD but this underperformance may be excessive and SK Inc could outperform as more value investors seek deeply discounted companies.
SK Inc’s dividend yield is 3.3%, which is higher than the dividend yields of most other major SK Group companies excluding SK Telecom which has a dividend yield of 6.5%.

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Sep 22

Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, Evergreen Marine Corp, Caterpillar Inc, Ametek Inc, Odyssey Marine Exploration , Paccar Inc, Trex Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)
Caterpillar Inc.: North America’s Construction Boom: How Caterpillar Is Capitalizing on It! – Major Drivers
AMETEK Inc.: Recent Acquisition Could Skyrocket Its Growth! – Major Drivers
Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Minerals for the Future
PACCAR Inc.: Road to Dominance: Profits
Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! – Major Drivers

A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal

We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.
Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.
Monitoring Doosan Robotics’s market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don’t offer much lift to earnings now
We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade
Shares of a few container shipping companies — including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan — have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector’s medium-term outlook

Caterpillar Inc.: North America’s Construction Boom: How Caterpillar Is Capitalizing on It! – Major Drivers

Caterpillar managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, with sales and revenues soaring by 22%, primarily driven by increased sales volume and price realization.
This remarkable growth extended across all three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation, with sales to users registering a substantial 16% increase year-over-year.
Energy & Transportation also witnessed a remarkable increase in sales to users across all applications, including oil and gas, power generation, industrial, and transportation.

AMETEK Inc.: Recent Acquisition Could Skyrocket Its Growth! – Major Drivers

AMETEK Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result, characterized by outstanding operational execution and significant results.
The company achieved strong sales growth, surpassing expectations and setting histories for sales, operating income, operating margins, earnings per share, and EBITDA.
AMETEK’s Electronic Instruments Group demonstrated exceptional performance with widespread sales growth across divisions, while the Electromechanical Group also reported strong sales growth.

Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Minerals for the Future

Initiating coverage of Odyssey Marine Exploration (OMEX), a pioneer in deep-ocean exploration that has pivoted away from exploring shipwrecks and is now using the vast experience accumulated over decades of undersea work to discover, validate, and develop subsea deposits rich in critical metals and minerals that are beneficial to society, including polymetallic nodules containing metals critical to battery production and phosphate, an important fertilizer component.
It’s all over but the waiting. Having completed the evidentiary phase and submitted post-hearing briefs in September 2022, OMEX is currently awaiting the decision of a NAFTA tribunal related to its arbitration against Mexico over what it believes was an illegal denial of an environmental permit to develop a phosphate resource located off the western coast of the country.
The potential for an award of monetary damages may exceed $2 billion and can provide longer-term project funding and development opportunities that would be made possible by such an infusion of capital.

PACCAR Inc.: Road to Dominance: Profits

PACCAR Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue and earnings.
PACCAR Parts reported double-digit revenue growth, accompanied by substantial pretax profit increases.
PACCAR Financial Services also contributed positively to the company’s strong quarter, benefiting from an excellent portfolio and favorable used truck results.

Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! – Major Drivers

Trex Company, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, demonstrating the durability of customer demand for its goods and the power of the outdoor living market.
Despite a slight sales dip compared to the significant second quarter of last year, Trex saw mid-single-digit growth in channel sell-through.
Trex unveiled the Trex Select T-Rail system in the quarter.

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Sep 22

Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, Evergreen Marine Corp, Caterpillar Inc, Ametek Inc, Odyssey Marine Exploration , Paccar Inc, Trex Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)
Caterpillar Inc.: North America’s Construction Boom: How Caterpillar Is Capitalizing on It! – Major Drivers
AMETEK Inc.: Recent Acquisition Could Skyrocket Its Growth! – Major Drivers
Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Minerals for the Future
PACCAR Inc.: Road to Dominance: Profits
Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! – Major Drivers

A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal

We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.
Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.
Monitoring Doosan Robotics’s market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don’t offer much lift to earnings now
We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade
Shares of a few container shipping companies — including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan — have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector’s medium-term outlook

Caterpillar Inc.: North America’s Construction Boom: How Caterpillar Is Capitalizing on It! – Major Drivers

Caterpillar managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, with sales and revenues soaring by 22%, primarily driven by increased sales volume and price realization.
This remarkable growth extended across all three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation, with sales to users registering a substantial 16% increase year-over-year.
Energy & Transportation also witnessed a remarkable increase in sales to users across all applications, including oil and gas, power generation, industrial, and transportation.

AMETEK Inc.: Recent Acquisition Could Skyrocket Its Growth! – Major Drivers

AMETEK Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result, characterized by outstanding operational execution and significant results.
The company achieved strong sales growth, surpassing expectations and setting histories for sales, operating income, operating margins, earnings per share, and EBITDA.
AMETEK’s Electronic Instruments Group demonstrated exceptional performance with widespread sales growth across divisions, while the Electromechanical Group also reported strong sales growth.

Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Minerals for the Future

Initiating coverage of Odyssey Marine Exploration (OMEX), a pioneer in deep-ocean exploration that has pivoted away from exploring shipwrecks and is now using the vast experience accumulated over decades of undersea work to discover, validate, and develop subsea deposits rich in critical metals and minerals that are beneficial to society, including polymetallic nodules containing metals critical to battery production and phosphate, an important fertilizer component.
It’s all over but the waiting. Having completed the evidentiary phase and submitted post-hearing briefs in September 2022, OMEX is currently awaiting the decision of a NAFTA tribunal related to its arbitration against Mexico over what it believes was an illegal denial of an environmental permit to develop a phosphate resource located off the western coast of the country.
The potential for an award of monetary damages may exceed $2 billion and can provide longer-term project funding and development opportunities that would be made possible by such an infusion of capital.

PACCAR Inc.: Road to Dominance: Profits

PACCAR Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue and earnings.
PACCAR Parts reported double-digit revenue growth, accompanied by substantial pretax profit increases.
PACCAR Financial Services also contributed positively to the company’s strong quarter, benefiting from an excellent portfolio and favorable used truck results.

Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! – Major Drivers