Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: SK Square and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Exploring Fresh Flow Trading Prospects for SK Square: Targeting Exclusion from KOSPI 200 IT


Exploring Fresh Flow Trading Prospects for SK Square: Targeting Exclusion from KOSPI 200 IT

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX did not acknowledge any business relevance between SK Square and the Semicon industry, leading to its exclusion from the KRX Semicon after the GICS change.
  • We should consider the strong possibility that this same approach will be applied in the upcoming December KOSPI 200 IT rebalancing.
  • If we observe a somewhat unusual downward trend in SK Square’s price from the 15th, this could be seen as a hint foretelling the announcement of SK Square’s exclusion.

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Daily Brief Industrials: SK Square and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Exploring Fresh Flow Trading Prospects for SK Square: Targeting Exclusion from KOSPI 200 IT


Exploring Fresh Flow Trading Prospects for SK Square: Targeting Exclusion from KOSPI 200 IT

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX did not acknowledge any business relevance between SK Square and the Semicon industry, leading to its exclusion from the KRX Semicon after the GICS change.
  • We should consider the strong possibility that this same approach will be applied in the upcoming December KOSPI 200 IT rebalancing.
  • If we observe a somewhat unusual downward trend in SK Square’s price from the 15th, this could be seen as a hint foretelling the announcement of SK Square’s exclusion.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Ventia, HNI Corp, Odyssey Marine Exploration and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains
  • Ventia Services Group Placement- Coming Ahead of Lockup but Is Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Ok
  • HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report
  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Exploring and Developing Seabed Resources Responsibly


Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s FQ2 earnings, released on October-31st, surpassed revenue and OP expectations, yet the company revised down its revenue and OP guidance by ¥8.8bn and ¥200m.
  • Despite this, the share price has surged over 10% in recent days, likely influenced by activist investor Palliser Capital’s interest and a significant 30% increase in annual dividend guidance.
  • However, during earnings, the company remained silent about the activist investor’s proposal to reduce its Oriental Land (4661 JP) ownership below 15%.

Ventia Services Group Placement- Coming Ahead of Lockup but Is Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Ok

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ventia (VNT AU) (VSG)’s two largest shareholders, Apollo Global Management and CIMIC Group, aim to raise around US$174m via selling 11.7% of the company.
  • The two investors have pared their stake thrice this year and this will be the final cleanup sale. All the past deals have done ok.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report

By Water Tower Research

  • We are raising our non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report on Tuesday, October 31, 2023.
  • Our sales estimates have moderated. Following the 3Q23 report, margins should be sustainably stronger.
  • HNI reported 3Q23 adjusted EPS of $0.93, $0.30 better than consensus. Sales were roughly in line. 

Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Exploring and Developing Seabed Resources Responsibly

By Water Tower Research

  • We hosted a fireside chat with Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors Mark D. Gordon.
  • This report contains a transcript of the fireside chat from October 12, 2023, which can be accessed on demand.
  • Deep roots and unique capabilities. Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. is a company with nearly 30 years of experience exploring and recovering deep-sea sites, amassing more than 24,000 hours of deep-sea experience, and exploring more than 74,000 square kilometers of the seafloor in the process.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Ventia, HNI Corp, Odyssey Marine Exploration and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains
  • Ventia Services Group Placement- Coming Ahead of Lockup but Is Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Ok
  • HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report
  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Exploring and Developing Seabed Resources Responsibly


Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s FQ2 earnings, released on October-31st, surpassed revenue and OP expectations, yet the company revised down its revenue and OP guidance by ¥8.8bn and ¥200m.
  • Despite this, the share price has surged over 10% in recent days, likely influenced by activist investor Palliser Capital’s interest and a significant 30% increase in annual dividend guidance.
  • However, during earnings, the company remained silent about the activist investor’s proposal to reduce its Oriental Land (4661 JP) ownership below 15%.

Ventia Services Group Placement- Coming Ahead of Lockup but Is Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Ok

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ventia (VNT AU) (VSG)’s two largest shareholders, Apollo Global Management and CIMIC Group, aim to raise around US$174m via selling 11.7% of the company.
  • The two investors have pared their stake thrice this year and this will be the final cleanup sale. All the past deals have done ok.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report

By Water Tower Research

  • We are raising our non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report on Tuesday, October 31, 2023.
  • Our sales estimates have moderated. Following the 3Q23 report, margins should be sustainably stronger.
  • HNI reported 3Q23 adjusted EPS of $0.93, $0.30 better than consensus. Sales were roughly in line. 

Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Exploring and Developing Seabed Resources Responsibly

By Water Tower Research

  • We hosted a fireside chat with Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors Mark D. Gordon.
  • This report contains a transcript of the fireside chat from October 12, 2023, which can be accessed on demand.
  • Deep roots and unique capabilities. Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. is a company with nearly 30 years of experience exploring and recovering deep-sea sites, amassing more than 24,000 hours of deep-sea experience, and exploring more than 74,000 square kilometers of the seafloor in the process.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Polycab India , Hanwha Corporation, Shenzhen International, ZTO Express Cayman , Paccar Inc, Waste Management, General Electric , Ask Automotive, Illinois Tool Works, 3M Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet
  • Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Big Step Forward
  • The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323
  • PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers
  • Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers
  • General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers
  • ASK Automotive Pre-IPO – Business Has Been Resilient, Although Concentration Risk Remains Elevated
  • Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers
  • 3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential NIFTY Index and/or Nifty Next 50 Index changes in March.
  • On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.

Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an updated NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation which is a holding company of the Hanwha Group. We argue that Hanwha Corp’s shares are trading excessively below its NAV. 
  • Hanwha Corp is down 10.5% YTD, underperforming Hanwha Aerospace (up 54.2% YTD). Hanwha Corp’s stake in Hanwha Aerospace is worth 1.9 trillion won (14% higher than Hanwha Corp’s market cap). 
  • Our NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) suggests NAV of 2.3 trillion won or NAV per share of 30,203 won which is 33% higher than current price.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Big Step Forward

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Shenzhen International (152 HK) has reached agreement with the government on the South China Logistics Park Phase I transformation and it will receive Rmb1.058bn compensation.
  • The sum equals a significant 9% of SZI’s market capitalisation. The agreement also kick-started the project’s long-term contribution, which may provide an income stream lasting 3-5 years.
  • The deal showcased SZI’s ability to realise the underlying value of its assets. The stock should not be valued on its earnings, and its 0.3x P/B is deeply undervalued.

The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins
  • The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3
  • SF fared better than ‘sort & transport’ names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag

PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PACCAR managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, with net income surging by 60% year-over-year to a historic $1.23 billion, accompanied by a 23% increase in revenues.
  • PACCAR Parts also played a pivotal role in the company’s success, with third-quarter revenues reaching $1.58 billion and Parts pretax profits increasing by 10% to $412 million.
  • PACCAR Financial achieved an impressive pretax income of $134 million in the financial sector in the third quarter.

Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Waste Management delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The solid waste business was the driving force behind this achievement, with organic revenue growth in collection and disposal aligning well with expectations.
  • The resilience of solid waste volumes, with positive trends in commercial volumes and special waste growth, stood out.

General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Electric Company delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • Orders increased by double digits, with services up by 15% and equipment up by 22%, driven primarily by the commercial aerospace sector.
  • The aerospace segment, in particular, experienced substantial growth, with commercial engines and services leading the way.

ASK Automotive Pre-IPO – Business Has Been Resilient, Although Concentration Risk Remains Elevated

By Clarence Chu

  • Ask Automotive (7175293Z IN) is looking to raise around US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • ASK Automotive (ASKA) is the largest manufacturer of brake-shoe and advanced braking (AB) systems for 2Ws in India, in terms of FY23 production volume for OEMs and the branded IAM.
  • As per CRISIL, it had an approximate 50% market share in said market. The IPO is expected to consist of 100% secondary shares, with promoters trimming their stakes.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illinois Tool Works delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • The company had relatively stable organic growth in the quarter, with a 2% increase on an equal-day basis.
  • Operating margin for the third quarter reached 26.5%, marking a 200-basis point increase compared to the previous year.

3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • 3M Company delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • This success has positioned the company for a promising conclusion to the year 2023.
  • The company also addresses potential risk and uncertainty by resolving significant litigation matters, such as Combat Arms and PFAS litigation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Polycab India , Hanwha Corporation, Shenzhen International, ZTO Express Cayman , Paccar Inc, Waste Management, General Electric , Ask Automotive, Illinois Tool Works, 3M Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet
  • Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Big Step Forward
  • The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323
  • PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers
  • Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers
  • General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers
  • ASK Automotive Pre-IPO – Business Has Been Resilient, Although Concentration Risk Remains Elevated
  • Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers
  • 3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential NIFTY Index and/or Nifty Next 50 Index changes in March.
  • On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.

Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an updated NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation which is a holding company of the Hanwha Group. We argue that Hanwha Corp’s shares are trading excessively below its NAV. 
  • Hanwha Corp is down 10.5% YTD, underperforming Hanwha Aerospace (up 54.2% YTD). Hanwha Corp’s stake in Hanwha Aerospace is worth 1.9 trillion won (14% higher than Hanwha Corp’s market cap). 
  • Our NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) suggests NAV of 2.3 trillion won or NAV per share of 30,203 won which is 33% higher than current price.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Big Step Forward

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Shenzhen International (152 HK) has reached agreement with the government on the South China Logistics Park Phase I transformation and it will receive Rmb1.058bn compensation.
  • The sum equals a significant 9% of SZI’s market capitalisation. The agreement also kick-started the project’s long-term contribution, which may provide an income stream lasting 3-5 years.
  • The deal showcased SZI’s ability to realise the underlying value of its assets. The stock should not be valued on its earnings, and its 0.3x P/B is deeply undervalued.

The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins
  • The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3
  • SF fared better than ‘sort & transport’ names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag

PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PACCAR managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, with net income surging by 60% year-over-year to a historic $1.23 billion, accompanied by a 23% increase in revenues.
  • PACCAR Parts also played a pivotal role in the company’s success, with third-quarter revenues reaching $1.58 billion and Parts pretax profits increasing by 10% to $412 million.
  • PACCAR Financial achieved an impressive pretax income of $134 million in the financial sector in the third quarter.

Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Waste Management delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The solid waste business was the driving force behind this achievement, with organic revenue growth in collection and disposal aligning well with expectations.
  • The resilience of solid waste volumes, with positive trends in commercial volumes and special waste growth, stood out.

General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Electric Company delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • Orders increased by double digits, with services up by 15% and equipment up by 22%, driven primarily by the commercial aerospace sector.
  • The aerospace segment, in particular, experienced substantial growth, with commercial engines and services leading the way.

ASK Automotive Pre-IPO – Business Has Been Resilient, Although Concentration Risk Remains Elevated

By Clarence Chu

  • Ask Automotive (7175293Z IN) is looking to raise around US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • ASK Automotive (ASKA) is the largest manufacturer of brake-shoe and advanced braking (AB) systems for 2Ws in India, in terms of FY23 production volume for OEMs and the branded IAM.
  • As per CRISIL, it had an approximate 50% market share in said market. The IPO is expected to consist of 100% secondary shares, with promoters trimming their stakes.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illinois Tool Works delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • The company had relatively stable organic growth in the quarter, with a 2% increase on an equal-day basis.
  • Operating margin for the third quarter reached 26.5%, marking a 200-basis point increase compared to the previous year.

3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • 3M Company delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • This success has positioned the company for a promising conclusion to the year 2023.
  • The company also addresses potential risk and uncertainty by resolving significant litigation matters, such as Combat Arms and PFAS litigation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Polycab India , Fanuc Corp, AviChina Industry & Technology H, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Danaher Corp, Equifax Inc, HNI Corp, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies , United Airlines Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover
  • Fanuc (6954) | Not Out of the Woods Yet
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): No Way Its Parts Are Greater than the Sum
  • Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%
  • Danaher Corporation: Pioneering Global Health – The Road Ahead! – Major Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Unlocking the Power of Cloud Transformation! – Major Drivers
  • HNI Corporation – 3Q23 Margins Beat Expectations
  • Lockheed Martin: Its Portfolio Is Setting the Stage For Potential Growth! – Key Drivers
  • RTX Corporation: Navigating Turbulence in the Aerospace and Defense Industry! – Key Drivers
  • United Airlines: European Routes


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover

By Brian Freitas

  • Halfway through the review period, we see 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 15.26% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 24bn. There will be more than 2x ADV to sell on nearly all deletes.
  • There is a possibility of an index methodology change, but no news for the last 4 months could indicate pushback from users or more stocks added to the F&O market.

Fanuc (6954) | Not Out of the Woods Yet

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q2 2023 results for FANUC Group showed a 3.7% decrease in consolidated net sales, a 24.5% drop in consolidated operating income, and mixed performance in its divisions.
  • Some positives: operating profit exceeding analyst expectations and an operating margin increase to 17.2%. However, declining robot orders, challenges in the US region, and high inventory remain concerns
  • We believe that the stock is currently trading around fair value (20x EV/EBIT). However, we still see risks to the downside given macro concerns

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): No Way Its Parts Are Greater than the Sum

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The A-share subsidiaries of AviChina Industry & Technology (2357 HK) have mostly posted solid 3Q23 results – aggregate earnings growth has accelerated to 50.2%, from 26.8% in 1Q23.
  • Their 9M23 result reached 64% of FY23 consensus forecast earnings for AviChina, vs. just 61% a year ago. This indicates the market is too conservative and suggests room for upgrade.
  • Valuations are cheap at 8.7x and 7.0x PERs for FY23 and FY24. Its market capitalisation equals just 46% of the total attributable market capitalisation of these subsidiaries.

Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

By Daniel Hellberg

  • For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy
  • In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September
  • In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view

Danaher Corporation: Pioneering Global Health – The Road Ahead! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Danaher Corporation delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Transformative achievements and consistent performance marked the final quarter for Danaher Corporation despite a challenging operating environment.
  • As a more focused life sciences and diagnostic innovator, Danaher is advancing human health through science and technology.

Equifax Inc.: Unlocking the Power of Cloud Transformation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • In Q3, Equifax reported revenue of $1.32 billion, representing a 6% increase on a reported basis.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

HNI Corporation – 3Q23 Margins Beat Expectations

By Water Tower Research

  • Before market open today, HNI reported 3Q23 adjusted EPS of $0.94, substantially ahead of our estimate of $0.64 and consensus of $0.63.
  • Positive surprises on the gross margin line accounted for the beat. Sales were roughly in line with expectations at $711.7 million versus our $713 million estimate.
  • Our pre-report concerns were answered with strong performance.

Lockheed Martin: Its Portfolio Is Setting the Stage For Potential Growth! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lockheed Martin Corporation delivered an all-around beat and has shown resilience in an uncertain market environment with its strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2023.
  • The company reported a 2% increase in sales year-over-year, reaching $16.9 billion, and delivered a robust free cash flow of $2.5 billion.
  • Lockheed Martin’s solid backlog of $156 billion reflects the relevance and importance of its portfolio in the face of increasing global geopolitical tensions.

RTX Corporation: Navigating Turbulence in the Aerospace and Defense Industry! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • RTX Corp managed an all-around beat in its latest result.
  • Additionally, the defense segment is benefiting from increased defense spending globally, driven by the current threat environment.
  • Furthermore, RTX is actively managing its portfolio by divesting non-core businesses, generating cash proceeds to support its strategic objectives.

United Airlines: European Routes

By Baptista Research

  • United Airlines reported strong financial results in the third quarter of 2023, with total revenue increasing by 12.5% and capacity growing by 15.7% year-over-year.
  • Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, United expects total revenue to be up approximately 10.5% on increased capacity, driven by strong demand in Atlantic and Pacific routes.
  • United’s prudent capacity planning and focus on cost management have positioned the company for sustainable growth.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Polycab India , Fanuc Corp, AviChina Industry & Technology H, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Danaher Corp, Equifax Inc, HNI Corp, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies , United Airlines Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover
  • Fanuc (6954) | Not Out of the Woods Yet
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): No Way Its Parts Are Greater than the Sum
  • Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%
  • Danaher Corporation: Pioneering Global Health – The Road Ahead! – Major Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Unlocking the Power of Cloud Transformation! – Major Drivers
  • HNI Corporation – 3Q23 Margins Beat Expectations
  • Lockheed Martin: Its Portfolio Is Setting the Stage For Potential Growth! – Key Drivers
  • RTX Corporation: Navigating Turbulence in the Aerospace and Defense Industry! – Key Drivers
  • United Airlines: European Routes


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover

By Brian Freitas

  • Halfway through the review period, we see 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 15.26% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 24bn. There will be more than 2x ADV to sell on nearly all deletes.
  • There is a possibility of an index methodology change, but no news for the last 4 months could indicate pushback from users or more stocks added to the F&O market.

Fanuc (6954) | Not Out of the Woods Yet

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q2 2023 results for FANUC Group showed a 3.7% decrease in consolidated net sales, a 24.5% drop in consolidated operating income, and mixed performance in its divisions.
  • Some positives: operating profit exceeding analyst expectations and an operating margin increase to 17.2%. However, declining robot orders, challenges in the US region, and high inventory remain concerns
  • We believe that the stock is currently trading around fair value (20x EV/EBIT). However, we still see risks to the downside given macro concerns

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): No Way Its Parts Are Greater than the Sum

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The A-share subsidiaries of AviChina Industry & Technology (2357 HK) have mostly posted solid 3Q23 results – aggregate earnings growth has accelerated to 50.2%, from 26.8% in 1Q23.
  • Their 9M23 result reached 64% of FY23 consensus forecast earnings for AviChina, vs. just 61% a year ago. This indicates the market is too conservative and suggests room for upgrade.
  • Valuations are cheap at 8.7x and 7.0x PERs for FY23 and FY24. Its market capitalisation equals just 46% of the total attributable market capitalisation of these subsidiaries.

Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

By Daniel Hellberg

  • For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy
  • In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September
  • In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view

Danaher Corporation: Pioneering Global Health – The Road Ahead! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Danaher Corporation delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Transformative achievements and consistent performance marked the final quarter for Danaher Corporation despite a challenging operating environment.
  • As a more focused life sciences and diagnostic innovator, Danaher is advancing human health through science and technology.

Equifax Inc.: Unlocking the Power of Cloud Transformation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • In Q3, Equifax reported revenue of $1.32 billion, representing a 6% increase on a reported basis.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

HNI Corporation – 3Q23 Margins Beat Expectations

By Water Tower Research

  • Before market open today, HNI reported 3Q23 adjusted EPS of $0.94, substantially ahead of our estimate of $0.64 and consensus of $0.63.
  • Positive surprises on the gross margin line accounted for the beat. Sales were roughly in line with expectations at $711.7 million versus our $713 million estimate.
  • Our pre-report concerns were answered with strong performance.

Lockheed Martin: Its Portfolio Is Setting the Stage For Potential Growth! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lockheed Martin Corporation delivered an all-around beat and has shown resilience in an uncertain market environment with its strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2023.
  • The company reported a 2% increase in sales year-over-year, reaching $16.9 billion, and delivered a robust free cash flow of $2.5 billion.
  • Lockheed Martin’s solid backlog of $156 billion reflects the relevance and importance of its portfolio in the face of increasing global geopolitical tensions.

RTX Corporation: Navigating Turbulence in the Aerospace and Defense Industry! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • RTX Corp managed an all-around beat in its latest result.
  • Additionally, the defense segment is benefiting from increased defense spending globally, driven by the current threat environment.
  • Furthermore, RTX is actively managing its portfolio by divesting non-core businesses, generating cash proceeds to support its strategic objectives.

United Airlines: European Routes

By Baptista Research

  • United Airlines reported strong financial results in the third quarter of 2023, with total revenue increasing by 12.5% and capacity growing by 15.7% year-over-year.
  • Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, United expects total revenue to be up approximately 10.5% on increased capacity, driven by strong demand in Atlantic and Pacific routes.
  • United’s prudent capacity planning and focus on cost management have positioned the company for sustainable growth.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Teraoka Seisakusho, Nihon M&A Center, Trimas Corp, Uponor OYJ and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Offensively Low-Priced MBO for Teraoka Seisakusho (4987) – Yet Another SmallCap Governance Disaster
  • Nihon M&A: Earnings Show Some Recovery; but Could Miss Full-Year OP Guidance
  • TRS: Scaled for Free Cash Flow
  • Aliaxis Condedes Defeat


Offensively Low-Priced MBO for Teraoka Seisakusho (4987) – Yet Another SmallCap Governance Disaster

By Travis Lundy

  • A small specialty adhesives maker – Teraoka Seisakusho (4987 JP) has had an MBO proposed and approved. At 0.54x book. NetCash+securities+2.5mos of net A/R+inventory = 99% of Takeover Market Cap.
  • Borrow 2x EBITDA, pay out the cash and securities, and this is being done at <0.3x remaining book. The takeover is 100+% bank funded. It’s ridiculous.
  • For this to get stopped, however, someone has to go activist on a smallcap where retail owns the entire float and friends and family own 55% to start.

Nihon M&A: Earnings Show Some Recovery; but Could Miss Full-Year OP Guidance

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP) ’s 2Q revenues decreased YoY while OP remained flat. However, both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates driven by improvement in revenue per M&A transaction.
  • There was strong improvement in revenue per transaction driven by enhanced efforts and growth in no. of large deals, however, M&A revenues declined due to drop in no. of deals.
  • Nihon has so far achieved only 36% of its OP target and it seems unlikely for the company to reach its full-year OP guidance, suggesting there is further downside.  

TRS: Scaled for Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TRS reported third quarter results where the packaging business continues to stabilize from inventory destocking while the aerospace segment continues to grow as fast as possible
  • The packaging business has gone through restructuring that should lead to higher profit margin as customers begin to increase their order activity
  • Improved supply chains are aiding the sales growth in aerospace. The growth in aerospace should help push cash flow higher and offset the softness in packaging

Aliaxis Condedes Defeat

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The offer period for white-knight Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW)‘s acquisition of Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH) will end, unless extended, on 31 October. Aliaxis, which put Uponor in play, concedes defeat.
  • The waiting game has ended. Aliaxis will tender its 20% stake with €90 million capital gains (pre-tax) as consolation. GF will obtain at least 53.9% acceptances, possibly a lot more.
  • The spread has been positive for most days since mid-July, on expectations of an offer sweetening. That won’t happen now. Gross spread is +0.14%. Recommendation is tender.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Daily Brief Industrials: Teraoka Seisakusho, Nihon M&A Center, Trimas Corp, Uponor OYJ and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Offensively Low-Priced MBO for Teraoka Seisakusho (4987) – Yet Another SmallCap Governance Disaster
  • Nihon M&A: Earnings Show Some Recovery; but Could Miss Full-Year OP Guidance
  • TRS: Scaled for Free Cash Flow
  • Aliaxis Condedes Defeat


Offensively Low-Priced MBO for Teraoka Seisakusho (4987) – Yet Another SmallCap Governance Disaster

By Travis Lundy

  • A small specialty adhesives maker – Teraoka Seisakusho (4987 JP) has had an MBO proposed and approved. At 0.54x book. NetCash+securities+2.5mos of net A/R+inventory = 99% of Takeover Market Cap.
  • Borrow 2x EBITDA, pay out the cash and securities, and this is being done at <0.3x remaining book. The takeover is 100+% bank funded. It’s ridiculous.
  • For this to get stopped, however, someone has to go activist on a smallcap where retail owns the entire float and friends and family own 55% to start.

Nihon M&A: Earnings Show Some Recovery; but Could Miss Full-Year OP Guidance

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP) ’s 2Q revenues decreased YoY while OP remained flat. However, both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates driven by improvement in revenue per M&A transaction.
  • There was strong improvement in revenue per transaction driven by enhanced efforts and growth in no. of large deals, however, M&A revenues declined due to drop in no. of deals.
  • Nihon has so far achieved only 36% of its OP target and it seems unlikely for the company to reach its full-year OP guidance, suggesting there is further downside.  

TRS: Scaled for Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TRS reported third quarter results where the packaging business continues to stabilize from inventory destocking while the aerospace segment continues to grow as fast as possible
  • The packaging business has gone through restructuring that should lead to higher profit margin as customers begin to increase their order activity
  • Improved supply chains are aiding the sales growth in aerospace. The growth in aerospace should help push cash flow higher and offset the softness in packaging

Aliaxis Condedes Defeat

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The offer period for white-knight Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW)‘s acquisition of Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH) will end, unless extended, on 31 October. Aliaxis, which put Uponor in play, concedes defeat.
  • The waiting game has ended. Aliaxis will tender its 20% stake with €90 million capital gains (pre-tax) as consolation. GF will obtain at least 53.9% acceptances, possibly a lot more.
  • The spread has been positive for most days since mid-July, on expectations of an offer sweetening. That won’t happen now. Gross spread is +0.14%. Recommendation is tender.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars