Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Honeywell International, Parker Hannifin, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Fortive , Rockwell Automation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Silver Lake, Ssangyong Cement, Vinda, Benefit One, Hollysys
  • Honeywell International – Heavy Investment in Aerospace & Other Futuristic Strategies Propelling Them Forward! – Major Drivers
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Increased Global Frontline Performance & Improved Margins Saving The Day? – Major Drivers
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide – Efforts Towards Cost Reduction For Offsetting Inflation Bearing Fruit? – Major Drivers
  • Fortive Corporation: Excellent Potential for Portfolio Durability through M&A! – Major Drivers
  • Rockwell Automation: Strong End-Market Demand & 5 Other Factors Driving Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Silver Lake, Ssangyong Cement, Vinda, Benefit One, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett


Honeywell International – Heavy Investment in Aerospace & Other Futuristic Strategies Propelling Them Forward! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The fourth quarter 2023 earnings for Honeywell International took place in a dynamic backdrop; the company delivered on its 2023 commitments despite this.
  • Honeywell’s Accelerator operating system and differentiated technologies allowed it to meet the full year guidance for organic growth, adjusted earnings per share, and free cash flow.
  • As a result of leadership changes, Vimal Kapur, CEO, has been elected to additionally serve as Chairman, starting from June after the current Executive Chairman, Darius Adamczyk, retires.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Increased Global Frontline Performance & Improved Margins Saving The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • With respect to Parker-Hannifin’s latest earnings, a few distinctive factors paint a broad picture of the company’s current status and future prospects.
  • With record sales of $4.8 billion in Q2, a 3% progression from the previous year, the company has expressed confidence in sustaining incrementals of over 100% and expanding upon the adjusted segment operating margin which stood at a record 24.5%, marking a 3% increase on a year-to-year basis.
  • This strong performance has primarily been driven by their Aerospace Systems, while both Industrial Silos also made valuable contributions.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide – Efforts Towards Cost Reduction For Offsetting Inflation Bearing Fruit? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • C.H. Robinson delivered mixed quarter four results for 2023 with gross profits of $618.6 million, down by 20% YoY due to a difficult freight market according to the company.
  • Total revenue was also down to $4.2 billion.
  • In terms of productivity initiatives, some improvements were made with a 17% improvement in North American Surface Transportation (NAST) and a 20% improvement in Global Forwarding.

Fortive Corporation: Excellent Potential for Portfolio Durability through M&A! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q4 and full year 2023 earnings call of Fortive Corporation, executives reported that Fortive delivered strong operational performance throughout 2023, displaying consistent performance amid a mixed macroeconomic environment.
  • Its adjusted operating margins approached 26%, a record high, pointing to the company’s resilience and successful execution of strategic planning.
  • Fortive also saw significant capital deployment across its segments.

Rockwell Automation: Strong End-Market Demand & 5 Other Factors Driving Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • In the Rockwell Automation results, it’s important to start by appreciating that the company registered first quarter growth, even amidst the challenging economic landscape.
  • Rockwell Automation registered a 3.6% year-over-year increase in total sales led by North America.
  • This performance is attributable partly to the company’s broad business portfolio which has helped spread risk.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Honeywell International, Parker Hannifin, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Fortive , Rockwell Automation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Silver Lake, Ssangyong Cement, Vinda, Benefit One, Hollysys
  • Honeywell International – Heavy Investment in Aerospace & Other Futuristic Strategies Propelling Them Forward! – Major Drivers
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Increased Global Frontline Performance & Improved Margins Saving The Day? – Major Drivers
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide – Efforts Towards Cost Reduction For Offsetting Inflation Bearing Fruit? – Major Drivers
  • Fortive Corporation: Excellent Potential for Portfolio Durability through M&A! – Major Drivers
  • Rockwell Automation: Strong End-Market Demand & 5 Other Factors Driving Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Silver Lake, Ssangyong Cement, Vinda, Benefit One, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett


Honeywell International – Heavy Investment in Aerospace & Other Futuristic Strategies Propelling Them Forward! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The fourth quarter 2023 earnings for Honeywell International took place in a dynamic backdrop; the company delivered on its 2023 commitments despite this.
  • Honeywell’s Accelerator operating system and differentiated technologies allowed it to meet the full year guidance for organic growth, adjusted earnings per share, and free cash flow.
  • As a result of leadership changes, Vimal Kapur, CEO, has been elected to additionally serve as Chairman, starting from June after the current Executive Chairman, Darius Adamczyk, retires.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Increased Global Frontline Performance & Improved Margins Saving The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • With respect to Parker-Hannifin’s latest earnings, a few distinctive factors paint a broad picture of the company’s current status and future prospects.
  • With record sales of $4.8 billion in Q2, a 3% progression from the previous year, the company has expressed confidence in sustaining incrementals of over 100% and expanding upon the adjusted segment operating margin which stood at a record 24.5%, marking a 3% increase on a year-to-year basis.
  • This strong performance has primarily been driven by their Aerospace Systems, while both Industrial Silos also made valuable contributions.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide – Efforts Towards Cost Reduction For Offsetting Inflation Bearing Fruit? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • C.H. Robinson delivered mixed quarter four results for 2023 with gross profits of $618.6 million, down by 20% YoY due to a difficult freight market according to the company.
  • Total revenue was also down to $4.2 billion.
  • In terms of productivity initiatives, some improvements were made with a 17% improvement in North American Surface Transportation (NAST) and a 20% improvement in Global Forwarding.

Fortive Corporation: Excellent Potential for Portfolio Durability through M&A! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q4 and full year 2023 earnings call of Fortive Corporation, executives reported that Fortive delivered strong operational performance throughout 2023, displaying consistent performance amid a mixed macroeconomic environment.
  • Its adjusted operating margins approached 26%, a record high, pointing to the company’s resilience and successful execution of strategic planning.
  • Fortive also saw significant capital deployment across its segments.

Rockwell Automation: Strong End-Market Demand & 5 Other Factors Driving Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • In the Rockwell Automation results, it’s important to start by appreciating that the company registered first quarter growth, even amidst the challenging economic landscape.
  • Rockwell Automation registered a 3.6% year-over-year increase in total sales led by North America.
  • This performance is attributable partly to the company’s broad business portfolio which has helped spread risk.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Regional Container Line, Cathay Pacific Airways, Copa Holdings SA, Japan Elevator Service Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)
  • Cathay Pacific – Strong Pax Momentum Suggests 2024 Can Outperform Expectations
  • Copa Holdings – A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?
  • Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Business Model Generating Value and Proving Resilient


Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)

By Douglas Kim

  • Regional Container Line is the largest container shipping company in Thailand. It has attractive valuations, strong balance sheet, and has a major tailwind of higher global shipping freight rates. 
  • RCL’s dividend yield averaged 9.6% from 2019 to 2022. The biggest factor driving higher shipping freight rates in 2024 has been the Suez crisis resulting from Houthi drone attacks. 
  • We used Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener system to find Regional Container Line (RCL TB).

Cathay Pacific – Strong Pax Momentum Suggests 2024 Can Outperform Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • Cathay Pacific’s strong end to 2023 has been well flagged but we think expectations are too low for 2024.
  • ANA, JAL and Korean Air have each seen unit pax revenue momentum accelerate into calendar 4Q23 which bodes well for 2024 prospects, particularly as manpower challenges slow capacity restoration.
  • Our 2024 EBITDAR is 5% ahead of consensus while we are 11% ahead at the net income level.

Copa Holdings – A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?

By Neil Glynn

  • Copa’s 2023 EBITDAR of $1,117m was achieved while growing unit revenues, while capacity expanded 13% with a 17% unit fuel cost tailwind. Not an easy feat.
  • In 2024, we expect only 5% EBITDAR growth on 10% capacity growth as unit revenues decline (following the emergence of this theme in 2H23) and EBITDAR-level unit costs grow.
  • We model Copa’s EBITDAR/ASM premium to 2019 down to a still-impressive 35% in 2024 but new route selection and efficiency will need to be strong to sustain these economics.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Business Model Generating Value and Proving Resilient

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Solid execution, high earnings visibility – Q1-3 FY3/2024 results demonstrated a continuation of positive developments in 1) sustained growth in maintenance and repair services, and 2) stronger than expected demand for modernization services.
  • We believe JES is providing in-demand high-quality services driven by secular growth as building owners convert to reputable independent providers for cost management, and structural demand driving modernization of aging elevators.
  • The company is on track to increase service capacity with the new JES Innovation Center Kansai (JIK) due to commence operations in April 2024.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Regional Container Line, Cathay Pacific Airways, Copa Holdings SA, Japan Elevator Service Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)
  • Cathay Pacific – Strong Pax Momentum Suggests 2024 Can Outperform Expectations
  • Copa Holdings – A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?
  • Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Business Model Generating Value and Proving Resilient


Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)

By Douglas Kim

  • Regional Container Line is the largest container shipping company in Thailand. It has attractive valuations, strong balance sheet, and has a major tailwind of higher global shipping freight rates. 
  • RCL’s dividend yield averaged 9.6% from 2019 to 2022. The biggest factor driving higher shipping freight rates in 2024 has been the Suez crisis resulting from Houthi drone attacks. 
  • We used Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener system to find Regional Container Line (RCL TB).

Cathay Pacific – Strong Pax Momentum Suggests 2024 Can Outperform Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • Cathay Pacific’s strong end to 2023 has been well flagged but we think expectations are too low for 2024.
  • ANA, JAL and Korean Air have each seen unit pax revenue momentum accelerate into calendar 4Q23 which bodes well for 2024 prospects, particularly as manpower challenges slow capacity restoration.
  • Our 2024 EBITDAR is 5% ahead of consensus while we are 11% ahead at the net income level.

Copa Holdings – A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?

By Neil Glynn

  • Copa’s 2023 EBITDAR of $1,117m was achieved while growing unit revenues, while capacity expanded 13% with a 17% unit fuel cost tailwind. Not an easy feat.
  • In 2024, we expect only 5% EBITDAR growth on 10% capacity growth as unit revenues decline (following the emergence of this theme in 2H23) and EBITDAR-level unit costs grow.
  • We model Copa’s EBITDAR/ASM premium to 2019 down to a still-impressive 35% in 2024 but new route selection and efficiency will need to be strong to sustain these economics.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Business Model Generating Value and Proving Resilient

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Solid execution, high earnings visibility – Q1-3 FY3/2024 results demonstrated a continuation of positive developments in 1) sustained growth in maintenance and repair services, and 2) stronger than expected demand for modernization services.
  • We believe JES is providing in-demand high-quality services driven by secular growth as building owners convert to reputable independent providers for cost management, and structural demand driving modernization of aging elevators.
  • The company is on track to increase service capacity with the new JES Innovation Center Kansai (JIK) due to commence operations in April 2024.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, Welbe Inc, Qantas Airways, Spirit Airlines, United Parcel Service Cl B, Otis Worldwide , Roper Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small
  • Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer
  • Welbe (6556 JP): Polaris Capital-Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,089
  • Get Your Pasona (2168 JP) Rump For Free
  • Qantas – 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control
  • Spirit Airlines – Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects
  • United Parcel Service (UPS): Accelerated digitization and e-commerce demand could propel them forward? – Major Drivers
  • Otis Worldwide Corporation: A Story Of New Equipment Sales and Margin Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Roper Technologies: Acquisition Of Procare Solutions & Improving M&A Pipeline! – Major Drivers


Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small

By Travis Lundy

  • Post-Close, the Nikkei carried a breathless headline that Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) had agreed a deal for Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s stake in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)
  • Not long afterwards, TDNet Filings provided Benefit One results, a change to BeneOne’s Opinion on the M3 Offer, and Board Resolution to Support/Recommend DIL’s TOB, now at ¥2,173 and ¥1,526/share.
  • Looks like a done deal. And this will also likely delay the start of the DIL Bid to 26-28 February timeframe.

Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced a TOB for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) having agreed a deal with Pasona Group (2168 JP) to sell into a buyback.
  • Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it announced the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.
  • At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that’s ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That’s ¥2,870/share. Then there’s the rest of the business.

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer

By Arun George

  • Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has recommended Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)’s revised offer of JPY2,173, a 2.4% and 90.1% premium to the previous offer and undisturbed price, respectively.
  • The Board and Pasona Group (2168 JP) secured the highest price. M3 Inc (2413 JP) tabled an alternative proposal but Pasona had concerns about the plan’s tax treatment.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 31.6% minority acceptance rate, achievable due to the high premium and the competitive bidding process.  

Welbe (6556 JP): Polaris Capital-Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,089

By Arun George

  • Welbe Inc (6556 JP) has recommended a Polaris Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY1,089 per share, a 30.0% premium to the undisturbed price (8 February). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 46.67% ownership ratio. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.1% minority acceptance rate. While a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable. 

Get Your Pasona (2168 JP) Rump For Free

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dai Ichi (8750 JP) agreed with Pasona (2168 JP) for Pasona to sell its shares back to Benefit One (2412 JP) in a buyback after Dai-Ichi’s Tender Offer for Benefit.
  • This process gives Pasona a tax advantage versus selling into a Tender Offer at the same price.
  • What does Pasona take home? ~¥2,822/share versus its last price of ¥2,733/share. Then you have stubs ops (conservatively worth up to ~¥1,960/share) and Pasona’s stake in Bewith (9216 JP) (~¥360/share).

Qantas – 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control

By Neil Glynn

  • For 1H24 we model EBITDAR of A$2,396m, ahead of Visible Alpha consensus of A$2,273m, which represents an EBITDAR/ASK 35% higher than 1H19.
  • 1H24 will be important to help us better understand “normalised” unit cost levels, with inflation high to date, in part due to a 17% capacity deficit in 2H23.
  • Qantas has seen comparable inflation to the US majors but considerably higher profitability. This should enable it to invest in product, operational and customer service improvements while protecting margins.

Spirit Airlines – Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects

By Neil Glynn

  • Spirit Airlines finished 2023 as expected and highlights improving pricing momentum in early 2024 which should drive some margin recovery.
  • However, we still expect EBITDAR/ASM to finish 2024 down 72% on 2019, with a maximum 50% deficit required to avoid escalating debt. This drives a focus on Chapter 11 risk.
  • Management is adamant liquidity is sufficient to allow it to recover but significant margin gains, led by pricing expansion despite aggressive growth plans, are required for financial sustainability.

United Parcel Service (UPS): Accelerated digitization and e-commerce demand could propel them forward? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • United Parcel Service, Inc.
  • (UPS) shared its latest quarterly earnings results in a recent Investor Relations Fourth Quarter call.
  • In Q4 of 2023, the company’s average daily volume (ADV) dropped 7.5% from the previous year, a considerable improvement from the reported third-quarter performance.

Otis Worldwide Corporation: A Story Of New Equipment Sales and Margin Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Otis Worldwide Corporation, a leading manufacturer and service provider for elevators, escalators, and moving walkways, is entering 2024 with confidence attributed to its strong full-year performance in 2023.
  • Their service-driven business model facilitated a total organic sales growth of 5.6%, driven by Service, which saw a growth of 7.7%.
  • The growth in the industry-leading maintenance portfolio reached a record high of 4.2% for the year.

Roper Technologies: Acquisition Of Procare Solutions & Improving M&A Pipeline! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Roper Technologies had a strong 2023 performance with key takeaways revolving around 15% revenue growth, 16% EBITDA growth, and 32% free cash flow growth with free cash flow margins at 32%.
  • Organic revenue growth was 8%, setting up positive momentum for 2024.
  • The company deployed $2.1 billion in high-quality vertical software acquisitions in the past year, including Syntellis and Replicon.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, Welbe Inc, Qantas Airways, Spirit Airlines, United Parcel Service Cl B, Otis Worldwide , Roper Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small
  • Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer
  • Welbe (6556 JP): Polaris Capital-Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,089
  • Get Your Pasona (2168 JP) Rump For Free
  • Qantas – 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control
  • Spirit Airlines – Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects
  • United Parcel Service (UPS): Accelerated digitization and e-commerce demand could propel them forward? – Major Drivers
  • Otis Worldwide Corporation: A Story Of New Equipment Sales and Margin Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Roper Technologies: Acquisition Of Procare Solutions & Improving M&A Pipeline! – Major Drivers


Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small

By Travis Lundy

  • Post-Close, the Nikkei carried a breathless headline that Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) had agreed a deal for Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s stake in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)
  • Not long afterwards, TDNet Filings provided Benefit One results, a change to BeneOne’s Opinion on the M3 Offer, and Board Resolution to Support/Recommend DIL’s TOB, now at ¥2,173 and ¥1,526/share.
  • Looks like a done deal. And this will also likely delay the start of the DIL Bid to 26-28 February timeframe.

Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced a TOB for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) having agreed a deal with Pasona Group (2168 JP) to sell into a buyback.
  • Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it announced the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.
  • At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that’s ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That’s ¥2,870/share. Then there’s the rest of the business.

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer

By Arun George

  • Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has recommended Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)’s revised offer of JPY2,173, a 2.4% and 90.1% premium to the previous offer and undisturbed price, respectively.
  • The Board and Pasona Group (2168 JP) secured the highest price. M3 Inc (2413 JP) tabled an alternative proposal but Pasona had concerns about the plan’s tax treatment.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 31.6% minority acceptance rate, achievable due to the high premium and the competitive bidding process.  

Welbe (6556 JP): Polaris Capital-Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,089

By Arun George

  • Welbe Inc (6556 JP) has recommended a Polaris Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY1,089 per share, a 30.0% premium to the undisturbed price (8 February). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 46.67% ownership ratio. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.1% minority acceptance rate. While a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable. 

Get Your Pasona (2168 JP) Rump For Free

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dai Ichi (8750 JP) agreed with Pasona (2168 JP) for Pasona to sell its shares back to Benefit One (2412 JP) in a buyback after Dai-Ichi’s Tender Offer for Benefit.
  • This process gives Pasona a tax advantage versus selling into a Tender Offer at the same price.
  • What does Pasona take home? ~¥2,822/share versus its last price of ¥2,733/share. Then you have stubs ops (conservatively worth up to ~¥1,960/share) and Pasona’s stake in Bewith (9216 JP) (~¥360/share).

Qantas – 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control

By Neil Glynn

  • For 1H24 we model EBITDAR of A$2,396m, ahead of Visible Alpha consensus of A$2,273m, which represents an EBITDAR/ASK 35% higher than 1H19.
  • 1H24 will be important to help us better understand “normalised” unit cost levels, with inflation high to date, in part due to a 17% capacity deficit in 2H23.
  • Qantas has seen comparable inflation to the US majors but considerably higher profitability. This should enable it to invest in product, operational and customer service improvements while protecting margins.

Spirit Airlines – Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects

By Neil Glynn

  • Spirit Airlines finished 2023 as expected and highlights improving pricing momentum in early 2024 which should drive some margin recovery.
  • However, we still expect EBITDAR/ASM to finish 2024 down 72% on 2019, with a maximum 50% deficit required to avoid escalating debt. This drives a focus on Chapter 11 risk.
  • Management is adamant liquidity is sufficient to allow it to recover but significant margin gains, led by pricing expansion despite aggressive growth plans, are required for financial sustainability.

United Parcel Service (UPS): Accelerated digitization and e-commerce demand could propel them forward? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • United Parcel Service, Inc.
  • (UPS) shared its latest quarterly earnings results in a recent Investor Relations Fourth Quarter call.
  • In Q4 of 2023, the company’s average daily volume (ADV) dropped 7.5% from the previous year, a considerable improvement from the reported third-quarter performance.

Otis Worldwide Corporation: A Story Of New Equipment Sales and Margin Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Otis Worldwide Corporation, a leading manufacturer and service provider for elevators, escalators, and moving walkways, is entering 2024 with confidence attributed to its strong full-year performance in 2023.
  • Their service-driven business model facilitated a total organic sales growth of 5.6%, driven by Service, which saw a growth of 7.7%.
  • The growth in the industry-leading maintenance portfolio reached a record high of 4.2% for the year.

Roper Technologies: Acquisition Of Procare Solutions & Improving M&A Pipeline! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Roper Technologies had a strong 2023 performance with key takeaways revolving around 15% revenue growth, 16% EBITDA growth, and 32% free cash flow growth with free cash flow margins at 32%.
  • Organic revenue growth was 8%, setting up positive momentum for 2024.
  • The company deployed $2.1 billion in high-quality vertical software acquisitions in the past year, including Syntellis and Replicon.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Kerry Logistics Network, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, L3Harris Technologies , Southwest Airlines Co, Frontier Group Holdings, FTC Solar , Union Pacific, Enovix , Northrop Grumman and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Kerry Express (KEX TB)’s MTO Update
  • CaiNiao’s FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers
  • L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!
  • Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers
  • Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets
  • Ftc Solar Inc (FTCI) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023
  • Union Pacific Corporation: Renewal Strategy for Locomotives – Major Drivers
  • Enovix (ENVX) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023
  • Northrop Grumman Corporation: A String Of Opportunities for Improvement and Growth! – Major Drivers


Kerry Express (KEX TB)’s MTO Update

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 29th December 2023, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).
  • Given S.F. Holding (002352 CH) holds a 51.5% stake in KLN, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie, triggering an unconditional MTO. The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. 
  • Thai SFC approval has now been satisfied.  The MTO should commence around the 13th Feb. with payment ~26th March. KLN, cum-entitlement to KEX, is the 19 Feb.

CaiNiao’s FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

By Daniel Hellberg

  • CaiNiao’s revenue growth remained strong, up +24% Y/Y in December quarter
  • EBITA turned positive from loss in prior year period, but margin < FYQ2
  • Overall, an impressive set of results that distinguishes CaiNiao from express peers

L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!

By Baptista Research

  • Through the fourth quarter 2023, earnings call at L3Harris Technologies showed healthy financial results accompanied by strong performance in its various portfolios.
  • The company reported a significant $23 billion in orders, marking a record increase, and a doubling of its backlog to $33 billion since the merger.
  • This growth trajectory was propelled by key U.S. Army awards and notable progress in satellite awards.

Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Southwest Airlines Co.’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings underscored some significant strides the company has taken over the past year, balanced by the ongoing challenges that the airline industry continues to face.
  • In terms of the positive highlights, CEO Bob Jordan commended the company for its impressive resilience, noting that they had successfully implemented a comprehensive winter weather action plan, fully staffed their operation, and restored their network following a disruptive winter storm in 2022.
  • Furthermore, the company saw improvement in almost every operational metric, maintained a 99% completion factor across the year, and secured nine labor agreements in a year.

Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

By Neil Glynn

  • Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.
  • Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.
  • We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to >$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC’s ability to thrive with higher costs.

Ftc Solar Inc (FTCI) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • FTCI’s stock price has dropped due to residential solar sector weakness and uncertainty regarding subsidies/tax credits, but the company still maintains a strong financial position with $30 million in cash and a backlog of $1.6 billion.
  • The company’s 2p tracker design is considered advantageous and has not experienced any known failures.
  • The author believes that a potential sale of FTCI could generate a price that is 3-4 times its market cap, thanks to its patented design, salesforce, and backlog, which contrasts with the struggling residential solar sector that heavily relies on aggressive sales tactics. Utility-scale solar is regarded as a more cost-effective option.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Union Pacific Corporation: Renewal Strategy for Locomotives – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The financial results of Union Pacific Corporation for Q4 2023, as well as for the full year, offer insights into the company’s operating performance.
  • Union Pacific reported a Q4 net income of $1.7 billion or $2.71 per share, up from $1.6 billion or $2.67 per share in Q4 2022.
  • While company revenue and costs remained flat year-over-year, Union Pacific saw an improvement in its operating ratio, which points to improved efficiency.

Enovix (ENVX) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Consumer electronic devices like smartphones and tablets increasingly rely on multiple sensors and components, such as touch screens and fingerprint sensors, that require energy to operate, which can decrease battery life.
  • Enovix has developed an advanced lithium-ion battery technology that offers higher energy density, allowing for longer operating times between charges.
  • This technology could help address the strain on battery life caused by the increasing number of hardware components in consumer electronics.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Northrop Grumman Corporation: A String Of Opportunities for Improvement and Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Northrop Grumman Corporation’s Q4 and year-end 2023 earnings call highlighted the company’s robust performance despite economic pressures.
  • They reported a revenue increase of over 7% and a new record backlog exceeding $84 billion, setting a solid foundation for future growth.
  • The company’s outlook documented in the call underlines strong operational performance generated at the high end of their guidance range and comfortably exceeding sales guidance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Kerry Logistics Network, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, L3Harris Technologies , Southwest Airlines Co, Frontier Group Holdings, FTC Solar , Union Pacific, Enovix , Northrop Grumman and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Kerry Express (KEX TB)’s MTO Update
  • CaiNiao’s FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers
  • L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!
  • Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers
  • Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets
  • Ftc Solar Inc (FTCI) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023
  • Union Pacific Corporation: Renewal Strategy for Locomotives – Major Drivers
  • Enovix (ENVX) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023
  • Northrop Grumman Corporation: A String Of Opportunities for Improvement and Growth! – Major Drivers


Kerry Express (KEX TB)’s MTO Update

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 29th December 2023, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).
  • Given S.F. Holding (002352 CH) holds a 51.5% stake in KLN, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie, triggering an unconditional MTO. The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. 
  • Thai SFC approval has now been satisfied.  The MTO should commence around the 13th Feb. with payment ~26th March. KLN, cum-entitlement to KEX, is the 19 Feb.

CaiNiao’s FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

By Daniel Hellberg

  • CaiNiao’s revenue growth remained strong, up +24% Y/Y in December quarter
  • EBITA turned positive from loss in prior year period, but margin < FYQ2
  • Overall, an impressive set of results that distinguishes CaiNiao from express peers

L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!

By Baptista Research

  • Through the fourth quarter 2023, earnings call at L3Harris Technologies showed healthy financial results accompanied by strong performance in its various portfolios.
  • The company reported a significant $23 billion in orders, marking a record increase, and a doubling of its backlog to $33 billion since the merger.
  • This growth trajectory was propelled by key U.S. Army awards and notable progress in satellite awards.

Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Southwest Airlines Co.’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings underscored some significant strides the company has taken over the past year, balanced by the ongoing challenges that the airline industry continues to face.
  • In terms of the positive highlights, CEO Bob Jordan commended the company for its impressive resilience, noting that they had successfully implemented a comprehensive winter weather action plan, fully staffed their operation, and restored their network following a disruptive winter storm in 2022.
  • Furthermore, the company saw improvement in almost every operational metric, maintained a 99% completion factor across the year, and secured nine labor agreements in a year.

Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

By Neil Glynn

  • Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.
  • Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.
  • We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to >$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC’s ability to thrive with higher costs.

Ftc Solar Inc (FTCI) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • FTCI’s stock price has dropped due to residential solar sector weakness and uncertainty regarding subsidies/tax credits, but the company still maintains a strong financial position with $30 million in cash and a backlog of $1.6 billion.
  • The company’s 2p tracker design is considered advantageous and has not experienced any known failures.
  • The author believes that a potential sale of FTCI could generate a price that is 3-4 times its market cap, thanks to its patented design, salesforce, and backlog, which contrasts with the struggling residential solar sector that heavily relies on aggressive sales tactics. Utility-scale solar is regarded as a more cost-effective option.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Union Pacific Corporation: Renewal Strategy for Locomotives – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The financial results of Union Pacific Corporation for Q4 2023, as well as for the full year, offer insights into the company’s operating performance.
  • Union Pacific reported a Q4 net income of $1.7 billion or $2.71 per share, up from $1.6 billion or $2.67 per share in Q4 2022.
  • While company revenue and costs remained flat year-over-year, Union Pacific saw an improvement in its operating ratio, which points to improved efficiency.

Enovix (ENVX) – Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Consumer electronic devices like smartphones and tablets increasingly rely on multiple sensors and components, such as touch screens and fingerprint sensors, that require energy to operate, which can decrease battery life.
  • Enovix has developed an advanced lithium-ion battery technology that offers higher energy density, allowing for longer operating times between charges.
  • This technology could help address the strain on battery life caused by the increasing number of hardware components in consumer electronics.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Northrop Grumman Corporation: A String Of Opportunities for Improvement and Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Northrop Grumman Corporation’s Q4 and year-end 2023 earnings call highlighted the company’s robust performance despite economic pressures.
  • They reported a revenue increase of over 7% and a new record backlog exceeding $84 billion, setting a solid foundation for future growth.
  • The company’s outlook documented in the call underlines strong operational performance generated at the high end of their guidance range and comfortably exceeding sales guidance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Samhyun, Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis
  • GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing


Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is target price of 28,106 won, which is 25% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range (22,500 won).
  • Given the moderate upside, we have a Positive view of Samhyun IPO. Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 34.6x net profit of 8.6 billion won in 2023.
  • Samhyun developed one of the world’s first CVVD (Continuously Variable Valve Duration) technology for automobile engines, which improves fuel efficiency by controlling the engine’s valve opening time.

GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing

By Neil Glynn

  • GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.
  • We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.
  • We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Samhyun, Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis
  • GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing


Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is target price of 28,106 won, which is 25% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range (22,500 won).
  • Given the moderate upside, we have a Positive view of Samhyun IPO. Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 34.6x net profit of 8.6 billion won in 2023.
  • Samhyun developed one of the world’s first CVVD (Continuously Variable Valve Duration) technology for automobile engines, which improves fuel efficiency by controlling the engine’s valve opening time.

GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing

By Neil Glynn

  • GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.
  • We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.
  • We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars