Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: Yamazen Corp, iMotion Automotive Technology, Yunda Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yamazen Secondary Offer (8150 JP) – 5 Banks Sell To Make This a Future Activism Target
  • IMotion Automotive Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Lack of Competitive Edge Starting to Show
  • Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao


Yamazen Secondary Offer (8150 JP) – 5 Banks Sell To Make This a Future Activism Target

By Travis Lundy

  • On Monday after the close, trading house Yamazen Corp (8051 JP) announced a secondary offering where five bank shareholders would sell ~6.7mm shares (including greenshoe). 
  • It appears as if most of the banks are selling everything, making it about US$50mm, 50 days of ADV, and about 7% of  shares out. 
  • But this should get swallowed pretty easily. The stock is DIRT CHEAP. The caveat? Crossholders and insiders will still own 45-48% post-offer. 

IMotion Automotive Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Lack of Competitive Edge Starting to Show

By Ethan Aw

  • IMotion Automotive Technology (1812706D CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • The company possesses advanced full-stack R&D capabilities including self-developed algorithms and hardware-software co-design capabilities. It provides two AD domain controller product lines, and the self-designed iDC series.
  • We had covered the company’s performance and PHIP updates in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its refiled PHIP updates.

Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express 
  • One reason could be Alibaba’s transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao
  • For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins

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Daily Brief Industrials: Yamazen Corp, iMotion Automotive Technology, Yunda Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yamazen Secondary Offer (8150 JP) – 5 Banks Sell To Make This a Future Activism Target
  • IMotion Automotive Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Lack of Competitive Edge Starting to Show
  • Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao


Yamazen Secondary Offer (8150 JP) – 5 Banks Sell To Make This a Future Activism Target

By Travis Lundy

  • On Monday after the close, trading house Yamazen Corp (8051 JP) announced a secondary offering where five bank shareholders would sell ~6.7mm shares (including greenshoe). 
  • It appears as if most of the banks are selling everything, making it about US$50mm, 50 days of ADV, and about 7% of  shares out. 
  • But this should get swallowed pretty easily. The stock is DIRT CHEAP. The caveat? Crossholders and insiders will still own 45-48% post-offer. 

IMotion Automotive Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Lack of Competitive Edge Starting to Show

By Ethan Aw

  • IMotion Automotive Technology (1812706D CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • The company possesses advanced full-stack R&D capabilities including self-developed algorithms and hardware-software co-design capabilities. It provides two AD domain controller product lines, and the self-designed iDC series.
  • We had covered the company’s performance and PHIP updates in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its refiled PHIP updates.

Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express 
  • One reason could be Alibaba’s transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao
  • For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins

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Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Visional , Benefit One Inc, ROHM Co Ltd, Japan Airport Terminal Co, Shenzhen International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (11 Dec) – Benefit One, Outsourcing, Tokyo Rakutenchi, CPMC, Weiqiao Textile
  • Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low
  • Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba
  • Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has recommended a Bain-backed preconditional MBO tender offer of JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December). 
  • The offer is light vs. peer and historical multiples and opportunistically takes advantage of the 20% price fall due to the disclosure of employment adjustment subsidies issues on 1 August. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 61.9% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance rate could prove challenging. The tender offer is to start by late January 2024. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names Visional (4194 JP) confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.
  • Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). 


Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.
  • It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. 
  • This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.

Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba

By Scott Foster

  • Rohm’s share price was up 6% on Friday, December 8, on the news that the Japanese government will subsidize its collaboration with Toshiba in power semiconductors.
  • The subsidy will amount to one-third of the ¥388.3 billion yen the two companies plan to invest in Silicon Carbide and Silicon devices for the electric vehicle and other industries.
  • Rohm hit bottom on October 31, management cut FY Mar-24 guidance on November 1 and the market is now looking to recovery. Toshiba will be delisted on December 20.

Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP) (JAT) has turnaround and set to resume its earnings growth trajectory thanks to Japan’s brisk air traffic recovery   
  • However, future growth is increasingly challenging as domestic traffic stalls, and international traffic growth relies on inbound tourists. What happens if tourists decide to go elsewhere?
  • Target price JPY5,364 (18% DOWNSIDE) based on 12.7x FY2024 EV/EBITDA (peer group average). SELL, grossly overvalued, Mexican and Chinese airports are far more attractive

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The REIT issuance of the Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics assets of Shenzhen International (152 HK) has entered the final stage, reflecting its ability to realise asset values.
  • We estimate SZI may book gain of around Rmb300m in 2H23, or more likely 1H24, and this will support good HoH and YoY rebound in its earnings. 
  • These assets only accounted for 8% and 5% of SZI’s total portfolio area and value, respectively, suggesting there is still immense room for capital gain from its remaining assets.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Visional , Benefit One Inc, ROHM Co Ltd, Japan Airport Terminal Co, Shenzhen International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (11 Dec) – Benefit One, Outsourcing, Tokyo Rakutenchi, CPMC, Weiqiao Textile
  • Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low
  • Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba
  • Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has recommended a Bain-backed preconditional MBO tender offer of JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December). 
  • The offer is light vs. peer and historical multiples and opportunistically takes advantage of the 20% price fall due to the disclosure of employment adjustment subsidies issues on 1 August. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 61.9% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance rate could prove challenging. The tender offer is to start by late January 2024. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names Visional (4194 JP) confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.
  • Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). 


Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.
  • It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. 
  • This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.

Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba

By Scott Foster

  • Rohm’s share price was up 6% on Friday, December 8, on the news that the Japanese government will subsidize its collaboration with Toshiba in power semiconductors.
  • The subsidy will amount to one-third of the ¥388.3 billion yen the two companies plan to invest in Silicon Carbide and Silicon devices for the electric vehicle and other industries.
  • Rohm hit bottom on October 31, management cut FY Mar-24 guidance on November 1 and the market is now looking to recovery. Toshiba will be delisted on December 20.

Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP) (JAT) has turnaround and set to resume its earnings growth trajectory thanks to Japan’s brisk air traffic recovery   
  • However, future growth is increasingly challenging as domestic traffic stalls, and international traffic growth relies on inbound tourists. What happens if tourists decide to go elsewhere?
  • Target price JPY5,364 (18% DOWNSIDE) based on 12.7x FY2024 EV/EBITDA (peer group average). SELL, grossly overvalued, Mexican and Chinese airports are far more attractive

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The REIT issuance of the Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics assets of Shenzhen International (152 HK) has entered the final stage, reflecting its ability to realise asset values.
  • We estimate SZI may book gain of around Rmb300m in 2H23, or more likely 1H24, and this will support good HoH and YoY rebound in its earnings. 
  • These assets only accounted for 8% and 5% of SZI’s total portfolio area and value, respectively, suggesting there is still immense room for capital gain from its remaining assets.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Keisei Electric Railway Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction
  • The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger


Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
  • The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits. 
  • Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

By David Blennerhassett


The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger

By Aki Matsumoto

  • In the long run, making Oriental Land, which is more profitable, a consolidated subsidiary through TOB would contribute to expanding Keisei’s corporate value.
  • Keisei’s foreign shareholder ratio is 27.4%. It seems premature for the rotating president to change at once the company’s tradition of maintaining 40-year relationship with Oriental Land as an affiliate.
  • Keisei should explain how it will develop its relationship with affiliate to increase corporate value, and what its business strategy would be if it were to sell its shareholding instead.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Keisei Electric Railway Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction
  • The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger


Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
  • The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits. 
  • Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

By David Blennerhassett


The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger

By Aki Matsumoto

  • In the long run, making Oriental Land, which is more profitable, a consolidated subsidiary through TOB would contribute to expanding Keisei’s corporate value.
  • Keisei’s foreign shareholder ratio is 27.4%. It seems premature for the rotating president to change at once the company’s tradition of maintaining 40-year relationship with Oriental Land as an affiliate.
  • Keisei should explain how it will develop its relationship with affiliate to increase corporate value, and what its business strategy would be if it were to sell its shareholding instead.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Pasona Group, Kosaido, Hamamatsu Photonics Kk, AerCap Holdings NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Pasona Is Up Bigly. More To Come
  • KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Showcasing Growth Through Competitive Advantage
  • Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Buy into Current Weakness
  • Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value


Pasona Is Up Bigly. More To Come

By David Blennerhassett

  • After M3 Inc (2413 JP) announced an intention to buy 51.16%-55.00% of Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) via a partial Tender Offer at ¥1,600, Pasona Group (2168 JP) took off. 
  • Now Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) has countered with an unsolicited ¥1,800/share Offer  of Equity Value; TOB followed by a Benefit One buyback to mop up Pasona’s stake.
  • The big news is how tax would be applied under Dai Ichi’s deal structure, which should see Pasona’s net proceeds significantly exceed those under M3’s Offer. 

KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Showcasing Growth Through Competitive Advantage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Capitalizing on growth opportunities – Q1-2 FY3/2024 results were ahead of company guidance, driven by the Funeral Services segment, as attendee numbers and refreshment sales grew, and new funeral hall openings saw higher than expected utilization rates.
  • We believe this indicates the strong competitive positioning the company has as the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
  • With effective cost control in the Information and HR segments, the company has high earnings visibility and raised FY3/2024 company guidance, as well as increasing the planned dividend payout ratio to 32.5% from 30%.

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Buy into Current Weakness

By Scott Foster

  • The shares are down 27% from their May high, largely discounting excessive inventory and a decline in profits that is likely to continue through next March or June.
  • Inventory adjustment, the revival of semiconductor, factory automation and medical related demand, plus the leveling off of depreciation, should enable a return to growth after that. 
  • Projected valuations are at the low end of their 10-year ranges. Buy into the current weakness, keeping in mind that 1Q results are likely to be weak.

Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value

By Mohshin Aziz

  • IBA (leading airline intelligence and appraisers) analysis suggests aircraft shortage will persist over the mid-term, pushing rates for newbuilds and especially mid-life assets much higher
  • Our TP of US$81.45 is premised on 0.94x 2024 P/BV, but it is evident that accounting book value is significantly below current market values, implying a higher fair value 
  • Stay invested, the upcoming 4Q23 results will uncover earnings boost from off-hire aircraft extension at premium rates, elevating Aercap’s attractiveness 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Pasona Group, Kosaido, Hamamatsu Photonics Kk, AerCap Holdings NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Pasona Is Up Bigly. More To Come
  • KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Showcasing Growth Through Competitive Advantage
  • Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Buy into Current Weakness
  • Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value


Pasona Is Up Bigly. More To Come

By David Blennerhassett

  • After M3 Inc (2413 JP) announced an intention to buy 51.16%-55.00% of Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) via a partial Tender Offer at ¥1,600, Pasona Group (2168 JP) took off. 
  • Now Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) has countered with an unsolicited ¥1,800/share Offer  of Equity Value; TOB followed by a Benefit One buyback to mop up Pasona’s stake.
  • The big news is how tax would be applied under Dai Ichi’s deal structure, which should see Pasona’s net proceeds significantly exceed those under M3’s Offer. 

KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Showcasing Growth Through Competitive Advantage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Capitalizing on growth opportunities – Q1-2 FY3/2024 results were ahead of company guidance, driven by the Funeral Services segment, as attendee numbers and refreshment sales grew, and new funeral hall openings saw higher than expected utilization rates.
  • We believe this indicates the strong competitive positioning the company has as the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
  • With effective cost control in the Information and HR segments, the company has high earnings visibility and raised FY3/2024 company guidance, as well as increasing the planned dividend payout ratio to 32.5% from 30%.

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Buy into Current Weakness

By Scott Foster

  • The shares are down 27% from their May high, largely discounting excessive inventory and a decline in profits that is likely to continue through next March or June.
  • Inventory adjustment, the revival of semiconductor, factory automation and medical related demand, plus the leveling off of depreciation, should enable a return to growth after that. 
  • Projected valuations are at the low end of their 10-year ranges. Buy into the current weakness, keeping in mind that 1Q results are likely to be weak.

Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value

By Mohshin Aziz

  • IBA (leading airline intelligence and appraisers) analysis suggests aircraft shortage will persist over the mid-term, pushing rates for newbuilds and especially mid-life assets much higher
  • Our TP of US$81.45 is premised on 0.94x 2024 P/BV, but it is evident that accounting book value is significantly below current market values, implying a higher fair value 
  • Stay invested, the upcoming 4Q23 results will uncover earnings boost from off-hire aircraft extension at premium rates, elevating Aercap’s attractiveness 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, O S Co Ltd, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International, Korean Air Lines, COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Braemar Shipping Services PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain
  • Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February
  • New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)
  • Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain

By Clarence Chu

  • The Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise US$155m from trimming a portion of its stake in Ircon International (IRCON IN), assuming the deal upsizes.
  • Assuming the deal upsizes, while it would represent 8% of the firm’s current shares outstanding, it would only represent 3.8 days of its three month ADV, given its strong liquidity.
  • Given that it isn’t the first time the GoI has sold its stake in IRCON, the selldown here should be expected, in our view.

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

By Neil Glynn

  • The European Commission has confirmed it aims to make a preliminary decision on the proposed Korean Air/Asiana merger by 14 February.
  • Plans to sell Asiana Cargo may struggle to find a buyer, while the US has also highlighted concerns regarding the merger, and Japan has yet to provide approval.
  • We continue to highlight there is a strong argument for Korean Air continuing alone, as Asiana continues to struggle to achieve profitability, with a stretched balance sheet.

New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One

By Travis Lundy

  • The deal from Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) appears language I did not get the first time around. The JPY 1800/share price is a proposed combined value.
  • The deal would then lower the TOB price to Pasona, and share the benefits from that lower price to Benefit One minorities. 
  • That suggests more upside to Benefit One than I originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona.

2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (COPRO) announced its 2Q FY24/3 results after market close on Tuesday, November 14, 2023.
  • Key consolidated figures included net sales of ¥11,137 mn (+28.5% YoY), operating profit of ¥737 mn (+56.9% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥810 mn (+71.8% YoY), and net income attributable to the parent company of ¥510 mn (+81.9% YoY).
  • Sales were largely in line with initial forecasts, while profits were 61.4% higher than initial forecasts, mainly due to lower back-office-related labor costs. 

Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar’s H124 results were in line with expectations with revenues up by 8%, but operating profits were down, having been hit by one-off costs. The underlying operations continue to expand and diversify, and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying revenue and operating profit estimates for FY24 and FY25 and retain our 520p per share valuation, offering c 85% upside.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, O S Co Ltd, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International, Korean Air Lines, COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Braemar Shipping Services PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain
  • Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February
  • New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)
  • Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain

By Clarence Chu

  • The Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise US$155m from trimming a portion of its stake in Ircon International (IRCON IN), assuming the deal upsizes.
  • Assuming the deal upsizes, while it would represent 8% of the firm’s current shares outstanding, it would only represent 3.8 days of its three month ADV, given its strong liquidity.
  • Given that it isn’t the first time the GoI has sold its stake in IRCON, the selldown here should be expected, in our view.

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

By Neil Glynn

  • The European Commission has confirmed it aims to make a preliminary decision on the proposed Korean Air/Asiana merger by 14 February.
  • Plans to sell Asiana Cargo may struggle to find a buyer, while the US has also highlighted concerns regarding the merger, and Japan has yet to provide approval.
  • We continue to highlight there is a strong argument for Korean Air continuing alone, as Asiana continues to struggle to achieve profitability, with a stretched balance sheet.

New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One

By Travis Lundy

  • The deal from Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) appears language I did not get the first time around. The JPY 1800/share price is a proposed combined value.
  • The deal would then lower the TOB price to Pasona, and share the benefits from that lower price to Benefit One minorities. 
  • That suggests more upside to Benefit One than I originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona.

2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (COPRO) announced its 2Q FY24/3 results after market close on Tuesday, November 14, 2023.
  • Key consolidated figures included net sales of ¥11,137 mn (+28.5% YoY), operating profit of ¥737 mn (+56.9% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥810 mn (+71.8% YoY), and net income attributable to the parent company of ¥510 mn (+81.9% YoY).
  • Sales were largely in line with initial forecasts, while profits were 61.4% higher than initial forecasts, mainly due to lower back-office-related labor costs. 

Braemar – Interims in line, growth strategy developing

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar’s H124 results were in line with expectations with revenues up by 8%, but operating profits were down, having been hit by one-off costs. The underlying operations continue to expand and diversify, and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying revenue and operating profit estimates for FY24 and FY25 and retain our 520p per share valuation, offering c 85% upside.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars