Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Mobis, Teikoku Sen-i Co., Ltd., Grab Holdings , Pacific Basin Shipping, S.F. Holding, Verisk Analytics, International Consolidated Airlines Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)
  • Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)
  • Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers
  • European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in January and February 2024.
  • We provide a list of 22 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in the past two months.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Shinhan Financial, Hyundai Mobis, and Samick Musical Instruments. All three have outperformed the market. 

Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock

By Mark Chadwick

  • Teikoku, a stable disaster equipment leader, is undervalued due to excessive cash and cross-holdings.  
  • Regulatory pressure, industry trends, and potential Hulic asset sales create an opportunity to unlock hidden value.
  • Despite fair current pricing, potential share repurchases and improved capital allocation offer up to 40% upside.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to explore the outlook for 2024. 
  • The company announced both a US$500m Buyback and the potential for improving margins in its deliveries business plus several new initiatives to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. 
  • Grab Financial continue to grow its loan book through lending to drivers and merchants, which should help to improve margins plus its high-margin advertising income is becoming increasingly important.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) has a weaker-than-expected 2H23, but we are glad that its unit cost has come down. Also, FY24F and FY25F should be years of recovery.
  • Current spot rates as indicated by BDI are significantly higher than 1H23 and YTD average, suggesting an upside for realised rates in the rest of this year. 
  • Supply pressure will be alleviated by the issues at Panama and Suez Canals, while China may be a factor in YoY demand improvement. Net gearing of 2% is light. 

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
  • Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
  • International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars

Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verisk experienced a successful 2023 with strategic, organizational, and cultural changes, outstanding financial performance, and substantial value creation for clients and shareholders.
  • The company delivered 8.7% organic constant currency revenue growth in 2023, the highest rate since its initial public offering in 2009.
  • They exceeded the expectations set during the Investor Day in March.

European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG

By Neil Glynn

  • Following AF-KLM and IAG results we refresh our forecasts, and our detailed quarterly bridge analysis in 2024 suggests each can grow earnings this year.
  • IAG clearly differentiates itself from AF-KLM with strong FCF generation while AF-KLM is unlikely to generate positive FCF before 2025 as it pays obligations deferred through COVID.
  • ​Lufthansa continues to appear highest risk in 2024 given as capacity restoration catches up with peers.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Mobis, Teikoku Sen-i Co., Ltd., Grab Holdings , Pacific Basin Shipping, S.F. Holding, Verisk Analytics, International Consolidated Airlines Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)
  • Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)
  • Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers
  • European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in January and February 2024.
  • We provide a list of 22 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in the past two months.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Shinhan Financial, Hyundai Mobis, and Samick Musical Instruments. All three have outperformed the market. 

Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock

By Mark Chadwick

  • Teikoku, a stable disaster equipment leader, is undervalued due to excessive cash and cross-holdings.  
  • Regulatory pressure, industry trends, and potential Hulic asset sales create an opportunity to unlock hidden value.
  • Despite fair current pricing, potential share repurchases and improved capital allocation offer up to 40% upside.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to explore the outlook for 2024. 
  • The company announced both a US$500m Buyback and the potential for improving margins in its deliveries business plus several new initiatives to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. 
  • Grab Financial continue to grow its loan book through lending to drivers and merchants, which should help to improve margins plus its high-margin advertising income is becoming increasingly important.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) has a weaker-than-expected 2H23, but we are glad that its unit cost has come down. Also, FY24F and FY25F should be years of recovery.
  • Current spot rates as indicated by BDI are significantly higher than 1H23 and YTD average, suggesting an upside for realised rates in the rest of this year. 
  • Supply pressure will be alleviated by the issues at Panama and Suez Canals, while China may be a factor in YoY demand improvement. Net gearing of 2% is light. 

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
  • Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
  • International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars

Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verisk experienced a successful 2023 with strategic, organizational, and cultural changes, outstanding financial performance, and substantial value creation for clients and shareholders.
  • The company delivered 8.7% organic constant currency revenue growth in 2023, the highest rate since its initial public offering in 2009.
  • They exceeded the expectations set during the Investor Day in March.

European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG

By Neil Glynn

  • Following AF-KLM and IAG results we refresh our forecasts, and our detailed quarterly bridge analysis in 2024 suggests each can grow earnings this year.
  • IAG clearly differentiates itself from AF-KLM with strong FCF generation while AF-KLM is unlikely to generate positive FCF before 2025 as it pays obligations deferred through COVID.
  • ​Lufthansa continues to appear highest risk in 2024 given as capacity restoration catches up with peers.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, APM Human Services Internation, Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA), Tokyo Metro, Qantm Intellectual Property, Sinotrans, Ohba Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Beyond the Bubble: A Deep Dive into the Forces Behind the Nikkei Index Surge
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): CVC’s 141% Offer Premium
  • China Airports: Beijing Capital Airport Offers Best Risk/Return Payoff
  • Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID
  • APM (APM AU): CVC’s Revised Non-Binding Proposal at A$2.00
  • QANTM (QIP AU): Rouse Makes An Offer – But At What Price?
  • Sinotrans (598.HK), a Shining Example of SOE Reform
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP)


Beyond the Bubble: A Deep Dive into the Forces Behind the Nikkei Index Surge

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average has surged past its 1989 peak, fueled by global investor interest, corporate reforms, and innovative investment initiatives like the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA).
  • This resurgence marks a significant milestone in Japan’s economic landscape, reflecting renewed investor confidence, structural reforms, and potential growth opportunities in the market.
  • The Nikkei’s surpassing of its previous peak signals a shift in perception towards Japan’s market potential, prompting investors to reconsider the country’s economic trajectory and explore new avenues for investment.

APM Human Services (APM AU): CVC’s 141% Offer Premium

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 19th Feb, employment and disability services play APM Human Services Internation (APM AU) rejected PE-outfit CVC Asia Pacific’s A$1.60 proposal, a 93% premium to undisturbed.
  • Undeterred, CVC has returned with A$2.00/share indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, a 141% premium to undisturbed; yet a 44% discount to APM’s November 2021 IPO price of A$3.55/share.
  • APM has determined it will engage and provide CVC with a four-week period of exclusivity. 

China Airports: Beijing Capital Airport Offers Best Risk/Return Payoff

By Eric Chen

  • Recent newsflow and company results suggest China outbound travel is on track to recover to pre-pandemic level by the end of this year.
  • China airports have different exposures to outbound travel, which largely determines the scale of their duty-free shopping business and earnings upside amidst this recovery cycle.
  • Beijing Capital Airport offers best risk/return profile among listed China airports in our view as current valuation does not fully capture even a conservative scenario of recovery in outbound travel.

Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (TKYMETRO JP)’s shareholders, the Japanese and Tokyo Metropolitan Governments, could look to raise up to US$2bn by selling half of their stake via an IPO.
  • Tokyo Metro is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines.
  • In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

APM (APM AU): CVC’s Revised Non-Binding Proposal at A$2.00

By Arun George

  • APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)’s revised non-binding proposal from CVC is A$2.00 per share, a 141.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 per share (16 February).
  • CVC has been granted a four-week exclusivity period to 27 March. The proposal allows shareholders to receive scrip in an unlisted HoldCo. The Board will recommend a binding proposal.
  • While not a knockout offer, a concentrated and seemingly supportive shareholder register facilitates a binding proposal. At the last close, the gross spread was 25.0%.  

QANTM (QIP AU): Rouse Makes An Offer – But At What Price?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yesterday morning, Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) announced it had received a non-binding indicative proposal from UK-based Rouse International Holdings Limited.
  • In what only can be described as a (s)crappy announcement, no price was disclosed, nor the due diligence period. Not even if this was a cash/scrip Offer.
  • In any event, QANTM considers Rouse’s ops to be highly complementary in both geographic and service lines to QANTM. QANTM shares gained 17% yesterday to close at A$1.34.

Sinotrans (598.HK), a Shining Example of SOE Reform

By Rikki Malik

  • A Profit-Oriented State Owned Enterprise that is walking the walk.
  • Management incentives are aligned with shareholders, a rarity in China.
  • Plenty of upside remains despite the market outperformance to date

2Q Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • 2Q FY24/5 results showed a steady increase in orders and earnings, following the 1Q results.
  • The company has been securing orders for disaster prevention and mitigation, defense civil engineering, and other priority areas.
  • Given 1H results and an order backlog of ¥12.48 bn as of the end of November, SIR believes the Company’s chances of achieving its targets have improved considerably.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, APM Human Services Internation, Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA), Tokyo Metro, Qantm Intellectual Property, Sinotrans, Ohba Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Beyond the Bubble: A Deep Dive into the Forces Behind the Nikkei Index Surge
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): CVC’s 141% Offer Premium
  • China Airports: Beijing Capital Airport Offers Best Risk/Return Payoff
  • Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID
  • APM (APM AU): CVC’s Revised Non-Binding Proposal at A$2.00
  • QANTM (QIP AU): Rouse Makes An Offer – But At What Price?
  • Sinotrans (598.HK), a Shining Example of SOE Reform
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP)


Beyond the Bubble: A Deep Dive into the Forces Behind the Nikkei Index Surge

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average has surged past its 1989 peak, fueled by global investor interest, corporate reforms, and innovative investment initiatives like the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA).
  • This resurgence marks a significant milestone in Japan’s economic landscape, reflecting renewed investor confidence, structural reforms, and potential growth opportunities in the market.
  • The Nikkei’s surpassing of its previous peak signals a shift in perception towards Japan’s market potential, prompting investors to reconsider the country’s economic trajectory and explore new avenues for investment.

APM Human Services (APM AU): CVC’s 141% Offer Premium

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 19th Feb, employment and disability services play APM Human Services Internation (APM AU) rejected PE-outfit CVC Asia Pacific’s A$1.60 proposal, a 93% premium to undisturbed.
  • Undeterred, CVC has returned with A$2.00/share indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, a 141% premium to undisturbed; yet a 44% discount to APM’s November 2021 IPO price of A$3.55/share.
  • APM has determined it will engage and provide CVC with a four-week period of exclusivity. 

China Airports: Beijing Capital Airport Offers Best Risk/Return Payoff

By Eric Chen

  • Recent newsflow and company results suggest China outbound travel is on track to recover to pre-pandemic level by the end of this year.
  • China airports have different exposures to outbound travel, which largely determines the scale of their duty-free shopping business and earnings upside amidst this recovery cycle.
  • Beijing Capital Airport offers best risk/return profile among listed China airports in our view as current valuation does not fully capture even a conservative scenario of recovery in outbound travel.

Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (TKYMETRO JP)’s shareholders, the Japanese and Tokyo Metropolitan Governments, could look to raise up to US$2bn by selling half of their stake via an IPO.
  • Tokyo Metro is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines.
  • In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

APM (APM AU): CVC’s Revised Non-Binding Proposal at A$2.00

By Arun George

  • APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)’s revised non-binding proposal from CVC is A$2.00 per share, a 141.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 per share (16 February).
  • CVC has been granted a four-week exclusivity period to 27 March. The proposal allows shareholders to receive scrip in an unlisted HoldCo. The Board will recommend a binding proposal.
  • While not a knockout offer, a concentrated and seemingly supportive shareholder register facilitates a binding proposal. At the last close, the gross spread was 25.0%.  

QANTM (QIP AU): Rouse Makes An Offer – But At What Price?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yesterday morning, Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) announced it had received a non-binding indicative proposal from UK-based Rouse International Holdings Limited.
  • In what only can be described as a (s)crappy announcement, no price was disclosed, nor the due diligence period. Not even if this was a cash/scrip Offer.
  • In any event, QANTM considers Rouse’s ops to be highly complementary in both geographic and service lines to QANTM. QANTM shares gained 17% yesterday to close at A$1.34.

Sinotrans (598.HK), a Shining Example of SOE Reform

By Rikki Malik

  • A Profit-Oriented State Owned Enterprise that is walking the walk.
  • Management incentives are aligned with shareholders, a rarity in China.
  • Plenty of upside remains despite the market outperformance to date

2Q Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • 2Q FY24/5 results showed a steady increase in orders and earnings, following the 1Q results.
  • The company has been securing orders for disaster prevention and mitigation, defense civil engineering, and other priority areas.
  • Given 1H results and an order backlog of ¥12.48 bn as of the end of November, SIR believes the Company’s chances of achieving its targets have improved considerably.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Ecopro BM , Cathay Pacific Airways, MTAR Technologies, Comfortdelgro Corp, Air China Ltd (H), Illinois Tool Works and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB
  • Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer
  • Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI
  • Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages
  • MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis
  • Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists
  • Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?
  • Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified


Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB

By Travis Lundy

  • After an extension due to a European Foreign Subsidies Review filing, and a small ‘accident’ regarding the earnings release, we have a deal. 
  • The earnings release itself seemed more innocuous than articles and rumour suggested show the causes of impairments and so it seemed like there was little cause to walk/declare MAC.
  • Now it will be done in 20 days. I still think this is cheeky, opportunistic, and low, and it is up to the float to decide what to do.

Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • The schedule includes submitting the transfer listing application post-EGM on March 26th. KRX approval expected in 4-6 weeks due to Ecopro BM’s financial soundness. KOSPI listing follows in 2-3 weeks.
  • As for KOSDAQ 150 ad-hoc change, it will be replaced with the top reserved issue. The anticipated timing for this ad-hoc change is around mid or late May.
  • Following Feb 7 disclosure, stock surged over 10% in 2 days. Precedents show rallies pre-shareholder meetings, but KOSPI listing brings corrections. Today’s resolution could boost Ecopro BM short term.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).
  • Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.
  • The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.

Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

By Brian Freitas

  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s Board has approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and to list on the KOSPI market. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March. 
  • Historically, the KRX has taken an average of 64 days from application to approve the listing to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS) will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index on its last trading day and inclusion in the KOSPI 200 Index could take place in September.

Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 February, Ecopro BM (247540 KS) announced that it will switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
  • Ecopro BM currently has a market cap of 23.1 trillion won. It is the largest stock in KOSDAQ right now and it would be the 17th largest stock in KOSPI.
  • Lofty valuation is one of the main reasons why we continue to be bearish on Ecopro BM. It is trading at P/E of 203x in 2024 and 71x in 2025.

Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages

By Neil Glynn

  • We publish a deep dive on historical margin management at Cathay Pacific following Bloomberg reports that Air China is considering raising its 29.99% stake.
  • We see Cathay’s consistent underperformance of the global industry as due to structural disadvantages competing against lower cost competitors without the benefit of attractive joint ventures or M&A.
  • Our deep dive comparing margin generation to ten major global peers highlights weak pricing power without sufficient offset from staff cost/other cost efficiencies as the key problem.

MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH IN)  is a precision engineered company that caters to customers in clean energy, Space, Defense sectors, etc. 
  • The company has done well over the last few years in terms of securing business, however there are concerns on the margins end, working capital and cash generation. 
  • There also exists a high business risk in terms of customer concentration since more than 75% of the revenues (F23) come from one single entity.

Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists

By Henry Soediarko

  • Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) share price has underperformed its tourism related transport operator peers.
  • Key drivers are still strong, including the expected influx of Chinese tourists from visa-free travel arrangements.
  • Valuation is still compelling, and it is not too late to own it.

Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Speculations on Air China Ltd (753 HK) seeking control of Cathay Pacific (293 HK) reappeared recently. We think a change in CX’s ownership is just a matter of time.
  • CX has been a more important profit contributor to Air China after the pandemic, and depends on pricing, Air China is expected to benefit from such acquisition.
  • Both are trading on 0.5SD below their 5-year P/B average and we prefer CX in the short term, but Air China looks to be a better long-term choice. 

Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified

By Baptista Research

  • Generators and machine producer, Illinois Tool Works Inc.
  • (ITW) has reported a modest growth amidst the unique operational challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • In particular, the company confronted reduced demand for capital expenditure (CapEx), lean customer inventories and a strike within the automotive industry.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Ecopro BM , Cathay Pacific Airways, MTAR Technologies, Comfortdelgro Corp, Air China Ltd (H), Illinois Tool Works and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB
  • Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer
  • Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI
  • Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages
  • MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis
  • Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists
  • Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?
  • Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified


Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB

By Travis Lundy

  • After an extension due to a European Foreign Subsidies Review filing, and a small ‘accident’ regarding the earnings release, we have a deal. 
  • The earnings release itself seemed more innocuous than articles and rumour suggested show the causes of impairments and so it seemed like there was little cause to walk/declare MAC.
  • Now it will be done in 20 days. I still think this is cheeky, opportunistic, and low, and it is up to the float to decide what to do.

Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • The schedule includes submitting the transfer listing application post-EGM on March 26th. KRX approval expected in 4-6 weeks due to Ecopro BM’s financial soundness. KOSPI listing follows in 2-3 weeks.
  • As for KOSDAQ 150 ad-hoc change, it will be replaced with the top reserved issue. The anticipated timing for this ad-hoc change is around mid or late May.
  • Following Feb 7 disclosure, stock surged over 10% in 2 days. Precedents show rallies pre-shareholder meetings, but KOSPI listing brings corrections. Today’s resolution could boost Ecopro BM short term.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).
  • Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.
  • The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.

Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

By Brian Freitas

  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s Board has approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and to list on the KOSPI market. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March. 
  • Historically, the KRX has taken an average of 64 days from application to approve the listing to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS) will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index on its last trading day and inclusion in the KOSPI 200 Index could take place in September.

Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 February, Ecopro BM (247540 KS) announced that it will switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
  • Ecopro BM currently has a market cap of 23.1 trillion won. It is the largest stock in KOSDAQ right now and it would be the 17th largest stock in KOSPI.
  • Lofty valuation is one of the main reasons why we continue to be bearish on Ecopro BM. It is trading at P/E of 203x in 2024 and 71x in 2025.

Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages

By Neil Glynn

  • We publish a deep dive on historical margin management at Cathay Pacific following Bloomberg reports that Air China is considering raising its 29.99% stake.
  • We see Cathay’s consistent underperformance of the global industry as due to structural disadvantages competing against lower cost competitors without the benefit of attractive joint ventures or M&A.
  • Our deep dive comparing margin generation to ten major global peers highlights weak pricing power without sufficient offset from staff cost/other cost efficiencies as the key problem.

MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH IN)  is a precision engineered company that caters to customers in clean energy, Space, Defense sectors, etc. 
  • The company has done well over the last few years in terms of securing business, however there are concerns on the margins end, working capital and cash generation. 
  • There also exists a high business risk in terms of customer concentration since more than 75% of the revenues (F23) come from one single entity.

Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists

By Henry Soediarko

  • Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) share price has underperformed its tourism related transport operator peers.
  • Key drivers are still strong, including the expected influx of Chinese tourists from visa-free travel arrangements.
  • Valuation is still compelling, and it is not too late to own it.

Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Speculations on Air China Ltd (753 HK) seeking control of Cathay Pacific (293 HK) reappeared recently. We think a change in CX’s ownership is just a matter of time.
  • CX has been a more important profit contributor to Air China after the pandemic, and depends on pricing, Air China is expected to benefit from such acquisition.
  • Both are trading on 0.5SD below their 5-year P/B average and we prefer CX in the short term, but Air China looks to be a better long-term choice. 

Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified

By Baptista Research

  • Generators and machine producer, Illinois Tool Works Inc.
  • (ITW) has reported a modest growth amidst the unique operational challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • In particular, the company confronted reduced demand for capital expenditure (CapEx), lean customer inventories and a strike within the automotive industry.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Grab Holdings , Hyundai Electric & Energy, Superloop Ltd, Kier Group PLC, Alight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Surging Ahead of Expectations
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book
  • ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!
  • Alight Inc (ALIT) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023


StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric (9009 JP) has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares. It has now announced another buyback.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Surging Ahead of Expectations

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings reported nothing short of an impressive set of results for 4Q2023, booking another positive adjusted EBITDA but also an actual net profit and positive adjusted cash flow. 
  • The company saw its mobility GMV come in above pre-COVID levels and deliveries GMV growth reaccelerated, while also reaching positive adjusted EBITDA for a second quarter.
  • Grab aims to deepen its engagement with users through affordable and premium offerings and a laddered pricing approach, with additional focus on financial services and advertising to come in 2024.

KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.
  • We see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 new adds to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • On average, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have the lowest price to book value and have historically outperformed stocks migrating between other categories.

ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio

By David Blennerhassett

  • The hunter becomes the hunted. After Superloop (SLC AU) failed to clinch Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) last year, Aussie Broadband (ABB AU) has now made an Offer for Superloop.
  • ABB’s indicative Offer provides Superloop shareholders with 0.21 new ABB shares for each Superloop share held, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.95/share, a 33.2% premium to the three-month VWAP.
  • ABB has picked up 19.9% in Superloop, also at A$0.95/share. Superloop has yet to respond.  

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.
  • There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for LXI REIT (LXI LN) and Network International Holdings (NETW LN) 

Alight Inc (ALIT) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Alight has experienced strong organic revenue growth through recurring revenue contracts and acquisitions
  • Concerns have been raised about stagnant gross margins, adjusted EBITDA margins, management turnover, and stakeholder selling
  • Accounting validation issues further complicate the company’s financial standing and could potentially impact the stock price negatively

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Grab Holdings , Hyundai Electric & Energy, Superloop Ltd, Kier Group PLC, Alight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Surging Ahead of Expectations
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book
  • ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!
  • Alight Inc (ALIT) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023


StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric (9009 JP) has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares. It has now announced another buyback.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Surging Ahead of Expectations

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings reported nothing short of an impressive set of results for 4Q2023, booking another positive adjusted EBITDA but also an actual net profit and positive adjusted cash flow. 
  • The company saw its mobility GMV come in above pre-COVID levels and deliveries GMV growth reaccelerated, while also reaching positive adjusted EBITDA for a second quarter.
  • Grab aims to deepen its engagement with users through affordable and premium offerings and a laddered pricing approach, with additional focus on financial services and advertising to come in 2024.

KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.
  • We see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 new adds to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • On average, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have the lowest price to book value and have historically outperformed stocks migrating between other categories.

ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio

By David Blennerhassett

  • The hunter becomes the hunted. After Superloop (SLC AU) failed to clinch Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) last year, Aussie Broadband (ABB AU) has now made an Offer for Superloop.
  • ABB’s indicative Offer provides Superloop shareholders with 0.21 new ABB shares for each Superloop share held, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.95/share, a 33.2% premium to the three-month VWAP.
  • ABB has picked up 19.9% in Superloop, also at A$0.95/share. Superloop has yet to respond.  

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.
  • There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for LXI REIT (LXI LN) and Network International Holdings (NETW LN) 

Alight Inc (ALIT) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Alight has experienced strong organic revenue growth through recurring revenue contracts and acquisitions
  • Concerns have been raised about stagnant gross margins, adjusted EBITDA margins, management turnover, and stakeholder selling
  • Accounting validation issues further complicate the company’s financial standing and could potentially impact the stock price negatively

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Superloop Ltd, Airbus , Millennium Services Group Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3
  • Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop
  • Airbus Se (EADSY) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023
  • Guidance and scheme of arrangement on track
  • Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track


Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

By Travis Lundy

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP)
  • Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a presentation by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.
  • Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. 

Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop

By Brian Freitas


Airbus Se (EADSY) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Honeywell CEO optimistic about strong performance of long-cycle Aero business, particularly aero cycle
  • Predicts double-digit growth in 2024 and sustained high growth rates until 2030
  • Airbus experiencing strong orders and growing backlog, production challenges in matching supply with demand indicate tight aircraft market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Guidance and scheme of arrangement on track

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has released its H1 FY24 interim result, with both revenue (pre-disclosed) and EBITDA in line with RaaS estimates.
  • Adjusted H1 FY24 EBITDA increased ~100% on the back of 15% revenue growth, a 20bps increase in gross margin and a well-controlled cost base.
  • Management has reiterated both revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY24 which are reflected in current RaaS estimates.

Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has released its H1 FY24 interim result, with both revenue (pre-disclosed) and EBITDA in line with RaaS estimates.
  • Adjusted H1 FY24 EBITDA increased ~100% on the back of 15% revenue growth, a 20bps increase in gross margin and a well-controlled cost base.
  • Management has reiterated both revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY24 which are reflected in current RaaS estimates. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Superloop Ltd, Airbus , Millennium Services Group Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3
  • Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop
  • Airbus Se (EADSY) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023
  • Guidance and scheme of arrangement on track
  • Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track


Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

By Travis Lundy

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP)
  • Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a presentation by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.
  • Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. 

Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop

By Brian Freitas


Airbus Se (EADSY) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Honeywell CEO optimistic about strong performance of long-cycle Aero business, particularly aero cycle
  • Predicts double-digit growth in 2024 and sustained high growth rates until 2030
  • Airbus experiencing strong orders and growing backlog, production challenges in matching supply with demand indicate tight aircraft market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Guidance and scheme of arrangement on track

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has released its H1 FY24 interim result, with both revenue (pre-disclosed) and EBITDA in line with RaaS estimates.
  • Adjusted H1 FY24 EBITDA increased ~100% on the back of 15% revenue growth, a 20bps increase in gross margin and a well-controlled cost base.
  • Management has reiterated both revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY24 which are reflected in current RaaS estimates.

Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has released its H1 FY24 interim result, with both revenue (pre-disclosed) and EBITDA in line with RaaS estimates.
  • Adjusted H1 FY24 EBITDA increased ~100% on the back of 15% revenue growth, a 20bps increase in gross margin and a well-controlled cost base.
  • Management has reiterated both revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY24 which are reflected in current RaaS estimates. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars