Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: Allegion Plc, United Airlines Holdings, Will Group Inc, Norfolk Southern and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023
  • United Airlines: Are The Recent Delays & Safety Concerns A Major Factor That Could Slow Them Down? – Key Drivers
  • 3Q Follow-Up – WILL GROUP (6089 JP)
  • Norfolk Southern Corporation: A Tale Of Expansion & Investment in Intermodal Operations! – Major Drivers


Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • VIC pitch remains relevant as Allegion is undervalued compared to historical P/E ratio
  • Majority of sales from resilient aftermarket and institutional sectors make Allegion’s business more stable than perceived
  • Strong presence in North America provides solid revenue base with high margins, presenting a strong investment opportunity for long-term growth and value appreciation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


United Airlines: Are The Recent Delays & Safety Concerns A Major Factor That Could Slow Them Down? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • During the latest fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings for United Airlines Holdings, the management team expressed positive sentiments regarding operational trends and financial performance, despite multiple headwinds at the global level.
  • The airline’s 2023 performance was framed as a clear demonstration of its United Next plan’s effectiveness, buoied by diversified revenue streams and robust operational metrics.
  • United Airlines posted full-year EPS (earnings per share) above $10, meeting its initial United target range.

3Q Follow-Up – WILL GROUP (6089 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • WILL GROUP announced cumulative 3Q FY24/3 consolidated financial results on February 7, and held a results briefing on February 19 hosted by President Yuichi Sumi.
  • This reports examines the details and progress of 3Q results relative to initial plan.
  • Then on February 22, WILL GROUP announced that it has decided to sell all shares in specified subsidiary for Startups, Inc. (7089 TSE Growth, specialized in HR services for venture growth businesses and startup companies), in which it holds the majority stake of 54.1% (1,925,400 shares) as of September 30, 2023.

Norfolk Southern Corporation: A Tale Of Expansion & Investment in Intermodal Operations! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Norfolk Southern Corporation reported mixed results for its Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings.
  • The company experienced inconsistencies due to network disruptions and a persistently weak freight market, impacted further by a major train derailment in Eastern Ohio at the start of the year.
  • Despite these challenges, the company persevered, demonstrating resilience and commitment to both safety and service.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Allegion Plc, United Airlines Holdings, Will Group Inc, Norfolk Southern and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023
  • United Airlines: Are The Recent Delays & Safety Concerns A Major Factor That Could Slow Them Down? – Key Drivers
  • 3Q Follow-Up – WILL GROUP (6089 JP)
  • Norfolk Southern Corporation: A Tale Of Expansion & Investment in Intermodal Operations! – Major Drivers


Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • VIC pitch remains relevant as Allegion is undervalued compared to historical P/E ratio
  • Majority of sales from resilient aftermarket and institutional sectors make Allegion’s business more stable than perceived
  • Strong presence in North America provides solid revenue base with high margins, presenting a strong investment opportunity for long-term growth and value appreciation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


United Airlines: Are The Recent Delays & Safety Concerns A Major Factor That Could Slow Them Down? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • During the latest fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings for United Airlines Holdings, the management team expressed positive sentiments regarding operational trends and financial performance, despite multiple headwinds at the global level.
  • The airline’s 2023 performance was framed as a clear demonstration of its United Next plan’s effectiveness, buoied by diversified revenue streams and robust operational metrics.
  • United Airlines posted full-year EPS (earnings per share) above $10, meeting its initial United target range.

3Q Follow-Up – WILL GROUP (6089 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • WILL GROUP announced cumulative 3Q FY24/3 consolidated financial results on February 7, and held a results briefing on February 19 hosted by President Yuichi Sumi.
  • This reports examines the details and progress of 3Q results relative to initial plan.
  • Then on February 22, WILL GROUP announced that it has decided to sell all shares in specified subsidiary for Startups, Inc. (7089 TSE Growth, specialized in HR services for venture growth businesses and startup companies), in which it holds the majority stake of 54.1% (1,925,400 shares) as of September 30, 2023.

Norfolk Southern Corporation: A Tale Of Expansion & Investment in Intermodal Operations! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Norfolk Southern Corporation reported mixed results for its Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings.
  • The company experienced inconsistencies due to network disruptions and a persistently weak freight market, impacted further by a major train derailment in Eastern Ohio at the start of the year.
  • Despite these challenges, the company persevered, demonstrating resilience and commitment to both safety and service.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Hanjin KAL Corp, Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha, World Holdings, AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings, Qunabox Group Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) – The OTHER Arb – That One Neat Trick And Its Weird Risks
  • Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?
  • Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • WORLD HOLDINGS (2429): Full-Year FY12/23 Update
  • AZ-COM MARUWA Holdings (9090): 1H FY03/24 Update
  • Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Outsourcing (2427) – The OTHER Arb – That One Neat Trick And Its Weird Risks

By Travis Lundy

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has been an “interesting” risk arb situation. It was launched as a Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low-Priced MBO. Some bumps after launch turned out to be BAU.
  • The stock has not traded above terms since early on in the trade. I expect people are happy to get out. But there is ANOTHER ARB to do here.
  • The OTHER ARB is something quite particular to high float, low activism risk arb trades. In some ways better than the traditional arb, but it has some risks.

Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air Lines.
  • It was also announced on 14 March that GS Retail purchased a 1% stake in Hanjin Kal. In addition, Korean Air Lines also purchased a 1.2% stake in GS Retail.
  • One of the growing probabilities of the changing shareholding structures is that KDB may be interested in selling its 10.6% stake in Hanjin Kal.

Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331 JP) provides engineering (design, procurement, and construction) services for the buildings of industrial, city gas, and sewage treatment plants.
  • In FY03/23, the company booked orders of JPY53.2bn, revenue of JPY44.6bn, operating profit of JPY2.5bn, OPM of 5.7%, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY3.0bn.
  • Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha, Ltd. announced a revision to its full-year FY03/24 earnings forecast.

WORLD HOLDINGS (2429): Full-Year FY12/23 Update

By Shared Research

  • World Holdings (2429 JP), established in 1993, primarily provides technical staffing and subcontracting services.
  • In FY12/23, revenue was JPY213.7bn, operating profit was JPY10.4bn, recurring profit was JPY10.3bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY6.2bn.
  • The company’s forecast for FY12/24 calls for revenue of JPY252.1bn, operating profit of JPY9.0bn, recurring profit of JPY8.6bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY4.7bn.

AZ-COM MARUWA Holdings (9090): 1H FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) is a logistics company specializing in services for retailers.
  • In FY03/23, revenue was JPY177.8bn, operating profit was JPY11.4bn, recurring profit was JPY11.9bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY7.8bn.
  • AZ-COM MARUWA Holdings Inc. announced that it has determined the number of shares to be issued  through a third-party allocation.

Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Qunabox Group Limited (QUNA HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is Haitong.
  • Qunabox Group Limited (Qunabox) is a marketing service provider in China, focusing on outdoor marketing for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).
  • As per CIC, the firm was the fifth largest FMCG outdoor marketing service provider in China in terms of 2022 sales, with a market share of 0.9%.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Hanjin KAL Corp, Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha, World Holdings, AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings, Qunabox Group Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) – The OTHER Arb – That One Neat Trick And Its Weird Risks
  • Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?
  • Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • WORLD HOLDINGS (2429): Full-Year FY12/23 Update
  • AZ-COM MARUWA Holdings (9090): 1H FY03/24 Update
  • Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Outsourcing (2427) – The OTHER Arb – That One Neat Trick And Its Weird Risks

By Travis Lundy

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has been an “interesting” risk arb situation. It was launched as a Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low-Priced MBO. Some bumps after launch turned out to be BAU.
  • The stock has not traded above terms since early on in the trade. I expect people are happy to get out. But there is ANOTHER ARB to do here.
  • The OTHER ARB is something quite particular to high float, low activism risk arb trades. In some ways better than the traditional arb, but it has some risks.

Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air Lines.
  • It was also announced on 14 March that GS Retail purchased a 1% stake in Hanjin Kal. In addition, Korean Air Lines also purchased a 1.2% stake in GS Retail.
  • One of the growing probabilities of the changing shareholding structures is that KDB may be interested in selling its 10.6% stake in Hanjin Kal.

Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331 JP) provides engineering (design, procurement, and construction) services for the buildings of industrial, city gas, and sewage treatment plants.
  • In FY03/23, the company booked orders of JPY53.2bn, revenue of JPY44.6bn, operating profit of JPY2.5bn, OPM of 5.7%, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY3.0bn.
  • Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha, Ltd. announced a revision to its full-year FY03/24 earnings forecast.

WORLD HOLDINGS (2429): Full-Year FY12/23 Update

By Shared Research

  • World Holdings (2429 JP), established in 1993, primarily provides technical staffing and subcontracting services.
  • In FY12/23, revenue was JPY213.7bn, operating profit was JPY10.4bn, recurring profit was JPY10.3bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY6.2bn.
  • The company’s forecast for FY12/24 calls for revenue of JPY252.1bn, operating profit of JPY9.0bn, recurring profit of JPY8.6bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY4.7bn.

AZ-COM MARUWA Holdings (9090): 1H FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) is a logistics company specializing in services for retailers.
  • In FY03/23, revenue was JPY177.8bn, operating profit was JPY11.4bn, recurring profit was JPY11.9bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY7.8bn.
  • AZ-COM MARUWA Holdings Inc. announced that it has determined the number of shares to be issued  through a third-party allocation.

Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Qunabox Group Limited (QUNA HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is Haitong.
  • Qunabox Group Limited (Qunabox) is a marketing service provider in China, focusing on outdoor marketing for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).
  • As per CIC, the firm was the fifth largest FMCG outdoor marketing service provider in China in terms of 2022 sales, with a market share of 0.9%.

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Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Techn, Cathay Pacific Airways, BQE Water , Qantm Intellectual Property, Duskin Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names
  • Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends
  • BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry
  • Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals
  • Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in June 2024 but there are some questions marks over the names leading the race to become ADDs.

Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation

By Neil Glynn

  • 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations but included a concerning step up in ex-fuel unit cost inflation.
  • We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 10% to HK$22.2bn, which drives net income down 21% to HK$6.6bn, leaving us well below consensus.
  • We revisit Cathay’s margin generation problems from the last cycle, illustrating structural problems which require structural solutions.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends

By Mohshin Aziz

  • FY23 net profit of HKD9.1b, easily beating the consensus forecast of HKD8.5b, and announced a surprise dividend, the first since 2019, signally pandemic effects are over 
  • Perfect execution from the team, leveraging on a strong market 
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+10% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE. We will update more after tuning in the 2 pm analyst briefing 

BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry

By Atrium Research

  • BQE’s recurring revenue is growing as a percentage of total revenue, making its business more predictable and stable.
  • The Company has major tailwinds from increasing environmental regulations on water discharge as well as increasing mining capex.
  • BQE’s EBITDA margins have been steadily improving over the past five years due to its asset-light model, reaching 22% in 2023E. 

Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27th Feb, Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) announced a NBIO from UK-based Rouse International; but opted not to disclose price, DD, or even if this was a cash/scrip Offer.
  • Then on the 12th March, Qantm announced a NBIO from Adamantem Capital, by way of a Scheme, of $1.817/share in cash or with a scrip election of up to 50%
  • Qantm secured a trading halt yesterday morning, presumably to flesh out the best Offer for shareholders. Will IPH Ltd (IPH AU) throw its hat into the ring, again?

Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Duskin Co Ltd (4665 JP) operates a Dust Control business where it rents mops and mats to residential and commercial customers through franchisees.
  • In FY03/23, Duskin posted revenue of JPY170.5bn, operating profit of JPY8.6bn, recurring profit of JPY11.4bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY7.2bn.
  • Duskin Co., Ltd. announced the cancellation of a portion of its treasury stock.

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Techn, Cathay Pacific Airways, BQE Water , Qantm Intellectual Property, Duskin Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names
  • Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends
  • BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry
  • Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals
  • Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in June 2024 but there are some questions marks over the names leading the race to become ADDs.

Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation

By Neil Glynn

  • 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations but included a concerning step up in ex-fuel unit cost inflation.
  • We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 10% to HK$22.2bn, which drives net income down 21% to HK$6.6bn, leaving us well below consensus.
  • We revisit Cathay’s margin generation problems from the last cycle, illustrating structural problems which require structural solutions.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends

By Mohshin Aziz

  • FY23 net profit of HKD9.1b, easily beating the consensus forecast of HKD8.5b, and announced a surprise dividend, the first since 2019, signally pandemic effects are over 
  • Perfect execution from the team, leveraging on a strong market 
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+10% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE. We will update more after tuning in the 2 pm analyst briefing 

BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry

By Atrium Research

  • BQE’s recurring revenue is growing as a percentage of total revenue, making its business more predictable and stable.
  • The Company has major tailwinds from increasing environmental regulations on water discharge as well as increasing mining capex.
  • BQE’s EBITDA margins have been steadily improving over the past five years due to its asset-light model, reaching 22% in 2023E. 

Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27th Feb, Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) announced a NBIO from UK-based Rouse International; but opted not to disclose price, DD, or even if this was a cash/scrip Offer.
  • Then on the 12th March, Qantm announced a NBIO from Adamantem Capital, by way of a Scheme, of $1.817/share in cash or with a scrip election of up to 50%
  • Qantm secured a trading halt yesterday morning, presumably to flesh out the best Offer for shareholders. Will IPH Ltd (IPH AU) throw its hat into the ring, again?

Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Duskin Co Ltd (4665 JP) operates a Dust Control business where it rents mops and mats to residential and commercial customers through franchisees.
  • In FY03/23, Duskin posted revenue of JPY170.5bn, operating profit of JPY8.6bn, recurring profit of JPY11.4bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY7.2bn.
  • Duskin Co., Ltd. announced the cancellation of a portion of its treasury stock.

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Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Kcc Corp, JD Logistics , Jetblue Airways, Nagase & Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity
  • KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group
  • StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish
  • Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results
  • JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations
  • Nagase (8012): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
  • I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
  • Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn’t. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.

KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group

By Douglas Kim

  • There is an increasing probability that KCC Corp is closer to separating the ownership structures of the three Chung brothers regarding the various KCC Group related companies.
  • KCC’s 9.17% stake in Samsung C&T is worth 2.8 trillion won. KCC’s stake in Samsung C&T is worth 117% of KCC’s own market cap. 
  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests NAV of 355,925 won per share, representing a 30% upside from current levels.

StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth & solid margin improvement
  • We analyze the impacts of JD.com & Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics’ Q423
  • Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view

JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • 1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.
  • Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.
  • We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier’s long-term prospects.

Nagase (8012): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Nagase & Co Ltd (8012 JP) is a trading company that specializes in chemicals.
  • FY03/23 results: Nagase reported full-year consolidated sales of JPY912.9bn, gross profit of JPY155.4bn, operating profit of JPY33.4bn, recurring profit of JPY32.5bn.
  • Nagase’s medium-term business plan, ACE 2.0, announced in May 2021, set key goal indicators for FY03/26 of consolidated operating profit of JPY35.0bn or above and ROE of 8.0% or above.

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
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Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Kcc Corp, JD Logistics , Jetblue Airways, Nagase & Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity
  • KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group
  • StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish
  • Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results
  • JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations
  • Nagase (8012): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
  • I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
  • Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn’t. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.

KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group

By Douglas Kim

  • There is an increasing probability that KCC Corp is closer to separating the ownership structures of the three Chung brothers regarding the various KCC Group related companies.
  • KCC’s 9.17% stake in Samsung C&T is worth 2.8 trillion won. KCC’s stake in Samsung C&T is worth 117% of KCC’s own market cap. 
  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests NAV of 355,925 won per share, representing a 30% upside from current levels.

StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth & solid margin improvement
  • We analyze the impacts of JD.com & Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics’ Q423
  • Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view

JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • 1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.
  • Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.
  • We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier’s long-term prospects.

Nagase (8012): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Nagase & Co Ltd (8012 JP) is a trading company that specializes in chemicals.
  • FY03/23 results: Nagase reported full-year consolidated sales of JPY912.9bn, gross profit of JPY155.4bn, operating profit of JPY33.4bn, recurring profit of JPY32.5bn.
  • Nagase’s medium-term business plan, ACE 2.0, announced in May 2021, set key goal indicators for FY03/26 of consolidated operating profit of JPY35.0bn or above and ROE of 8.0% or above.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nippon Express Holdings, CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd, Advantest Corp, Full Truck Alliance , Samhyun, Qantm Intellectual Property, Tocalo Co Ltd, IDEC Corp, Mitsuboshi Belting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang
  • CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer
  • Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted
  • CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!
  • Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS
  • Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817
  • TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP
  • IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That’s an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
  • Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
  • Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

By Arun George

  • CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
  • Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 

Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest has dropped back 11.5% from its recent high but is still up 43% year-to-date and up 2.3X from a year ago. Consolidation is likely to continue.
  • Demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for use with AI processors could lift sales, profits and profit margins to new highs within the next two years.
  • That could bring the projected P/E ratio down from 75.5x FY Mar-24 EPS guidance to 31x FY Mar-26 EPS in a favorable but not unreasonably optimistic scenario. 

CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28 November 2023, SOE-backed CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced a conditional H-share buyback at a $7.00/H-share, a paltry 8.6% premium to last close.
  • This Scheme-like Offer, with a tendering condition, secured SAFE approval late January. But last month CIMC announced a CBP investigation into the evasion of U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
  • Now CIMC has announced a firm Offer at HK$7.50/share. Terms are final. The majority of independent H-shareholders are supportive. This looks done. Possible completion late-May, early-June.

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
  • Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
  • Buyback update & Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus

Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Samhyun reported excellent IPO bookbuilding results. Samhyun’s IPO price has been determined at 30,000 won per share, which is 20% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 2,168 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 649 to 1. Samhyun will start trading on 21 March 2024. 
  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is implied market cap of 396 billion won or target price of 37,402 won, which is 25% higher than the IPO price.

Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that Adamantem Capital had submitted a non-binding indicative offer for Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) at A$1.817 per share, a 30.7% premium to the last close. 
  • In response to a previous AFR article, Qantm disclosed a non-binding indicative offer from Rouse but declined to reveal a price or the structure (cash or scrip). 
  • AFR reports that other potential interested parties, such as Quadrant Private Equity and IPH, are also in the running. Adamantem’s attractive offer sets a high bar for other potential bidders. 

TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP

By Shared Research

  • Tocalo Co Ltd (3433 JP) provides surface treatments that improve the performance of materials used across a range of industries by adding properties.
  • In FY03/23, sales were JPY48.1bn, operating profit  JPY10.6bn, recurring profit JPY11.0bn, and net  income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.4bn.
  • Tocalo Co., Ltd. has announced that it has been recognized with a B score in the Climate Change Report 2023 published by CDP.

IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • IDEC Corp (6652 JP) is a comprehensive manufacturer and vendor of control equipment, especially human-machine interface (HMI) devices such as switches.
  • For FY03/23, the company reported revenue of JPY83.9bn, operating profit of JPY14.0bn, recurring profit of JPY14.4bn, and net income of JPY10.1bn, with EPS of JPY348.4.
  • The company achieved its FY03/25 targets two years ahead of schedule, prompting management to announce upwardly revised targets for the same year in May 2023.

Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192 JP) manufactures power transmission belts for automobiles and general industrial machinery. The company belongs to a group of six or seven global leaders in this space.
  • In FY03/23, revenue was JPY82.9bn (+10.7% YoY), operating profit JPY9.0bn (+18.2% YoY), recurring profit JPY10.5bn (+22.4% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.1bn (+10.8% YoY).
  • In May 2022, the company announced the following targets as its vision for FY2030 (FY03/31): JPY100.0bn in revenue, operating profit of JPY13.0bn, and ROE of 10.0%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Nippon Express Holdings, CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd, Advantest Corp, Full Truck Alliance , Samhyun, Qantm Intellectual Property, Tocalo Co Ltd, IDEC Corp, Mitsuboshi Belting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang
  • CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer
  • Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted
  • CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!
  • Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS
  • Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817
  • TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP
  • IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That’s an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
  • Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
  • Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

By Arun George

  • CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
  • Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 

Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest has dropped back 11.5% from its recent high but is still up 43% year-to-date and up 2.3X from a year ago. Consolidation is likely to continue.
  • Demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for use with AI processors could lift sales, profits and profit margins to new highs within the next two years.
  • That could bring the projected P/E ratio down from 75.5x FY Mar-24 EPS guidance to 31x FY Mar-26 EPS in a favorable but not unreasonably optimistic scenario. 

CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28 November 2023, SOE-backed CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced a conditional H-share buyback at a $7.00/H-share, a paltry 8.6% premium to last close.
  • This Scheme-like Offer, with a tendering condition, secured SAFE approval late January. But last month CIMC announced a CBP investigation into the evasion of U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
  • Now CIMC has announced a firm Offer at HK$7.50/share. Terms are final. The majority of independent H-shareholders are supportive. This looks done. Possible completion late-May, early-June.

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
  • Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
  • Buyback update & Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus

Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Samhyun reported excellent IPO bookbuilding results. Samhyun’s IPO price has been determined at 30,000 won per share, which is 20% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 2,168 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 649 to 1. Samhyun will start trading on 21 March 2024. 
  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is implied market cap of 396 billion won or target price of 37,402 won, which is 25% higher than the IPO price.

Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that Adamantem Capital had submitted a non-binding indicative offer for Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) at A$1.817 per share, a 30.7% premium to the last close. 
  • In response to a previous AFR article, Qantm disclosed a non-binding indicative offer from Rouse but declined to reveal a price or the structure (cash or scrip). 
  • AFR reports that other potential interested parties, such as Quadrant Private Equity and IPH, are also in the running. Adamantem’s attractive offer sets a high bar for other potential bidders. 

TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP

By Shared Research

  • Tocalo Co Ltd (3433 JP) provides surface treatments that improve the performance of materials used across a range of industries by adding properties.
  • In FY03/23, sales were JPY48.1bn, operating profit  JPY10.6bn, recurring profit JPY11.0bn, and net  income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.4bn.
  • Tocalo Co., Ltd. has announced that it has been recognized with a B score in the Climate Change Report 2023 published by CDP.

IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • IDEC Corp (6652 JP) is a comprehensive manufacturer and vendor of control equipment, especially human-machine interface (HMI) devices such as switches.
  • For FY03/23, the company reported revenue of JPY83.9bn, operating profit of JPY14.0bn, recurring profit of JPY14.4bn, and net income of JPY10.1bn, with EPS of JPY348.4.
  • The company achieved its FY03/25 targets two years ahead of schedule, prompting management to announce upwardly revised targets for the same year in May 2023.

Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192 JP) manufactures power transmission belts for automobiles and general industrial machinery. The company belongs to a group of six or seven global leaders in this space.
  • In FY03/23, revenue was JPY82.9bn (+10.7% YoY), operating profit JPY9.0bn (+18.2% YoY), recurring profit JPY10.5bn (+22.4% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.1bn (+10.8% YoY).
  • In May 2022, the company announced the following targets as its vision for FY2030 (FY03/31): JPY100.0bn in revenue, operating profit of JPY13.0bn, and ROE of 10.0%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars