Industrials

• On Friday, Pasona Group (2168 JP) announced its expected use of funds into the May 2024 results, including a special dividend plan, investment for growth, and “strengthening the operating platform.”
• The plan will disappoint. The stock may get hit hard. The truth is somewhere in the middle. This is where active stewardship matters. So get stewarding.
• A special div paid over 5yrs should be paid one-shot, now. If the company has plans worth supporting, set KPIs now, ask for money later. Good plans get good money.

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• On the IPO front, the focus remained on HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), even as Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial is gearing up to launch its IPO. 
• On the placement front, there were deals across India, South Korea and Australia.

• Orient Overseas International (316 HK) saw 27.2% QoQ freight rate uptick in 1Q24. This is a positive start and we should not be too concerned about the 12% YoY decline.
• Its overall load factor also expanded 0.9pp YoY in the quarter, and this is the first YoY improvement since 2Q22. A better utilisation level is good for unit costs.
• At end-FY23, net cash equals 62.4% of the share price, dragging ROE to 7.5% for the next three years. But with such solid financials, its 0.7x P/B is not expensive.

• On Friday, Pasona Group (2168 JP) announced its expected use of funds into the May 2024 results, including a special dividend plan, investment for growth, and “strengthening the operating platform.”
• The plan will disappoint. The stock may get hit hard. The truth is somewhere in the middle. This is where active stewardship matters. So get stewarding.
• A special div paid over 5yrs should be paid one-shot, now. If the company has plans worth supporting, set KPIs now, ask for money later. Good plans get good money.

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• On the IPO front, the focus remained on HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), even as Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial is gearing up to launch its IPO. 
• On the placement front, there were deals across India, South Korea and Australia.

• Orient Overseas International (316 HK) saw 27.2% QoQ freight rate uptick in 1Q24. This is a positive start and we should not be too concerned about the 12% YoY decline.
• Its overall load factor also expanded 0.9pp YoY in the quarter, and this is the first YoY improvement since 2Q22. A better utilisation level is good for unit costs.
• At end-FY23, net cash equals 62.4% of the share price, dragging ROE to 7.5% for the next three years. But with such solid financials, its 0.7x P/B is not expensive.

• The Supply/ Demand imbalance in tankers will persist for longer, supporting earnings
• A beneficiary of increased global tensions and higher oil and gas prices
• Proposed Stock option scheme incentives management in the right way

• Nitto Kogyo Corporation (Nitto Kogyo) is a leading manufacturer of distribution boards and panel boards for electrical and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as enclosures that house telecommunications and precision equipment.
• The company has 45 sales offices and nine factories in Japan, including the new Seto Plant, which will begin operating in spring, 2024, and is working to expand its business in ASEAN countries, with overseas production and sales bases in China, Thailand, and Singapore.
• In the renewable energy field, the company is focusing on EMS-related businesses such as solar power generation systems, EV recharging stations, and self-contained industrial solar power storage battery systems.

FY24 trading underpins Norcros’s compelling investment case, where its new product development initiatives, market positioning and self-help initiatives allow it to take market share in both the UK and South Africa. We believe that Norcros’s key strengths are underappreciated and that legacy issues have been resolved. Its rating is low at 5.6x FY24e P/E, which is attractive, especially when compared to its yield of 5.7% on its well-covered dividend. We retain our estimates and value the shares at 246p, implying c 40% upside.

• The Supply/ Demand imbalance in tankers will persist for longer, supporting earnings
• A beneficiary of increased global tensions and higher oil and gas prices
• Proposed Stock option scheme incentives management in the right way

• Nitto Kogyo Corporation (Nitto Kogyo) is a leading manufacturer of distribution boards and panel boards for electrical and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as enclosures that house telecommunications and precision equipment.
• The company has 45 sales offices and nine factories in Japan, including the new Seto Plant, which will begin operating in spring, 2024, and is working to expand its business in ASEAN countries, with overseas production and sales bases in China, Thailand, and Singapore.
• In the renewable energy field, the company is focusing on EMS-related businesses such as solar power generation systems, EV recharging stations, and self-contained industrial solar power storage battery systems.

FY24 trading underpins Norcros’s compelling investment case, where its new product development initiatives, market positioning and self-help initiatives allow it to take market share in both the UK and South Africa. We believe that Norcros’s key strengths are underappreciated and that legacy issues have been resolved. Its rating is low at 5.6x FY24e P/E, which is attractive, especially when compared to its yield of 5.7% on its well-covered dividend. We retain our estimates and value the shares at 246p, implying c 40% upside.

• In this insight, we highlight some of the important industry factors impacting HD Hyundai Marine Solution. 
• Eco-Friendly ships are high-value-added ships that require more parts than conventional ships and are mechanically more complex, so the unit cost of parts is higher than that of conventional ships. 
• Therefore, the ship AM (aftermarket) is a key industry that is expected to benefit from higher customer demand and increase service prices.

• Despite YTD strengths in share price, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is still cheap at 5.7x PER and 0.9x P/B.
• VLCC is forecast to stay undersupplied in FY24 and FY25, supporting the rates and CSET’s profitability. YTD, the VLCC rates have recovered by 19.5%.
• LNG transportation generated 19% of FY23 earnings. With 40 more vessels on order, compared with a current fleet of 43, there is immense upside from this segment.

• Builders FirstSource focuses on value-added and specialty products
• Maintains industry-leading gross margins of 35%
• Expands reach and solidifies position through strategic acquisitions and strong customer base

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Sixt is focused on increasing its market share and expanding into key markets such as Germany and Europe
• The company’s strategy includes focusing on premium vehicles, strong relationships with OEMs, and utilizing franchise operations for global expansion
• The Sixt family’s involvement and significant ownership stake indicate a commitment to the company’s success and continuity in leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Market gaining confidence in DSGR’s management and growth strategy for potential multiple expansion
• Strong acquisition pipeline and track record of successful integrations positioning DSGR for long-term success
• DSGR offers an attractive investment opportunity with potential for significant upside due to recent developments and discounted valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In this insight, we highlight some of the important industry factors impacting HD Hyundai Marine Solution. 
• Eco-Friendly ships are high-value-added ships that require more parts than conventional ships and are mechanically more complex, so the unit cost of parts is higher than that of conventional ships. 
• Therefore, the ship AM (aftermarket) is a key industry that is expected to benefit from higher customer demand and increase service prices.

• Despite YTD strengths in share price, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is still cheap at 5.7x PER and 0.9x P/B.
• VLCC is forecast to stay undersupplied in FY24 and FY25, supporting the rates and CSET’s profitability. YTD, the VLCC rates have recovered by 19.5%.
• LNG transportation generated 19% of FY23 earnings. With 40 more vessels on order, compared with a current fleet of 43, there is immense upside from this segment.

• Builders FirstSource focuses on value-added and specialty products
• Maintains industry-leading gross margins of 35%
• Expands reach and solidifies position through strategic acquisitions and strong customer base

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Sixt is focused on increasing its market share and expanding into key markets such as Germany and Europe
• The company’s strategy includes focusing on premium vehicles, strong relationships with OEMs, and utilizing franchise operations for global expansion
• The Sixt family’s involvement and significant ownership stake indicate a commitment to the company’s success and continuity in leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Market gaining confidence in DSGR’s management and growth strategy for potential multiple expansion
• Strong acquisition pipeline and track record of successful integrations positioning DSGR for long-term success
• DSGR offers an attractive investment opportunity with potential for significant upside due to recent developments and discounted valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• The Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) Board has responded with several questions regarding AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s pre-conditional hostile offer of JPY3,000 per share.
• The Board questions the transaction’s schedule, terms and potential synergies. The Board has also used the ruse that due diligence access would justify a higher offer price.
• Expect several rounds of Q&A and a delay to the tender start. If shares continue trading through terms ahead of the tender start, AZ-COM Maruwa will likely have to bump. 

• BQE will be reporting Q4 & 2023 financial results in ~2 weeks, we are expecting proportional revenue of $4.2M, gross margin of 45%, and adj. EBITDA of $0.6M (14% margin).
• Metals prices have been rising steadily over the last month with copper up 9%.
• BQE’s China JV has leverage to the copper price as it sells recovered metals.

• The Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) Board has responded with several questions regarding AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s pre-conditional hostile offer of JPY3,000 per share.
• The Board questions the transaction’s schedule, terms and potential synergies. The Board has also used the ruse that due diligence access would justify a higher offer price.
• Expect several rounds of Q&A and a delay to the tender start. If shares continue trading through terms ahead of the tender start, AZ-COM Maruwa will likely have to bump. 

• BQE will be reporting Q4 & 2023 financial results in ~2 weeks, we are expecting proportional revenue of $4.2M, gross margin of 45%, and adj. EBITDA of $0.6M (14% margin).
• Metals prices have been rising steadily over the last month with copper up 9%.
• BQE’s China JV has leverage to the copper price as it sells recovered metals.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by marketcap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500. There is subjectivity.
• Here we look at potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300/500 rebalance in June 2024. With 93% of time passed, I expect 11 changes for CSI300, 50 for CSI 500. 
• Some names have changed since my last insight, but the long/short trades recommended eight weeks ago gained 11.26% since. We make small changes this time.

• Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, representing an 18% upside from the high end of the IPO price range.
• The company’s ROE averaged 67% in 2022 and 2023. In comparison, the comps’ ROE averaged 10.6% in the same period. [HD Hyundai Marine Solution > Comps]
• Our base case valuation is based on 24.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 178.7 billion won for the company in 2024. 

• ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has restarted its IPO process to raise US$500 million by listing on the NYSE.
• We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case and ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case. 
• The latest SEC filings reinforce the bear case due to weak industry sentiment, rapidly slowing growth, ongoing operating losses and volatile FCF. 

• Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) had 15.4% interest-bearing debt denominated in USD, vs. 21.3% for China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), making it less exposed to Rmb depreciation. 
• Recovery of international traffic and routes will help to lower unit costs. Air China’s unit costs for FY23 were Rmb4.0445, whereas CSA’s were only Rmb3.2000.
• There is more upside for Air China’s load factor which was down 7.8pp YoY in FY23, compared with -4.7pp for CSA. 

• TAL Education Group (TAL) reported net revenues of USD 373.5 million for its third quarter fiscal year 2024, exhibiting an increase of 60.5% and 63.7% in U.S. dollar and RMB terms.
• Despite the impressive revenue growth, profitability remained a concern with non-GAAP loss from operations and non-GAAP net loss attributable to TAL amounting to USD 10.2 million and USD 1.9 million, respectively.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Base Carbon reported 2023 results that highlight the milestone year for the company, which saw the first issuance of carbon credits from one of its projects, cash received from the sale of its credits to a third party, and the diversification into carbon removal projects.
• Net profit was $98.3 million, driven by $6.4 million realized and $104.7 million in unrealized gains in its carbon credit projects portfolio.
• Vietnam project expected to deliver ~$29.1 million in cash flow in 2024.

• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners are Jefferies, Nomura, ICICI Securities, SBI Capital, DAM Capital, and Nuvama Wealth.
• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
• As per the Fitch report, the firm was one of India’s largest international infrastructure companies as per the 2023 ENR top international contractors ranking, based on FY23 international revenue.

• UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023, despite falling slightly short of its annual target.
• The company’s sales and profit ranked as the third best in its nearly seven decades of operation.
• CEO Matt Missad and CFO Mike Cole laid out UFP’s achievements, plans for 2024, and long-term objectives in their earnings call.

ADS-TEC Energy operates in an emerging market serving the changing grid and power management requirements of an electrifying world. Its key market at present is for battery-buffered ultra-fast charging systems for electric vehicles (EVs). This is starting to produce tangible positive results, with the business EBITDA positive in Q423. Hence, ADS-TEC offers a de-risking investment into the electrification of the energy system, including the growth of EVs through the associated charging infrastructure.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by marketcap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500. There is subjectivity.
• Here we look at potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300/500 rebalance in June 2024. With 93% of time passed, I expect 11 changes for CSI300, 50 for CSI 500. 
• Some names have changed since my last insight, but the long/short trades recommended eight weeks ago gained 11.26% since. We make small changes this time.

• Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, representing an 18% upside from the high end of the IPO price range.
• The company’s ROE averaged 67% in 2022 and 2023. In comparison, the comps’ ROE averaged 10.6% in the same period. [HD Hyundai Marine Solution > Comps]
• Our base case valuation is based on 24.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 178.7 billion won for the company in 2024. 

• ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has restarted its IPO process to raise US$500 million by listing on the NYSE.
• We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case and ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case. 
• The latest SEC filings reinforce the bear case due to weak industry sentiment, rapidly slowing growth, ongoing operating losses and volatile FCF. 

• Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) had 15.4% interest-bearing debt denominated in USD, vs. 21.3% for China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), making it less exposed to Rmb depreciation. 
• Recovery of international traffic and routes will help to lower unit costs. Air China’s unit costs for FY23 were Rmb4.0445, whereas CSA’s were only Rmb3.2000.
• There is more upside for Air China’s load factor which was down 7.8pp YoY in FY23, compared with -4.7pp for CSA. 

• TAL Education Group (TAL) reported net revenues of USD 373.5 million for its third quarter fiscal year 2024, exhibiting an increase of 60.5% and 63.7% in U.S. dollar and RMB terms.
• Despite the impressive revenue growth, profitability remained a concern with non-GAAP loss from operations and non-GAAP net loss attributable to TAL amounting to USD 10.2 million and USD 1.9 million, respectively.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Base Carbon reported 2023 results that highlight the milestone year for the company, which saw the first issuance of carbon credits from one of its projects, cash received from the sale of its credits to a third party, and the diversification into carbon removal projects.
• Net profit was $98.3 million, driven by $6.4 million realized and $104.7 million in unrealized gains in its carbon credit projects portfolio.
• Vietnam project expected to deliver ~$29.1 million in cash flow in 2024.

• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners are Jefferies, Nomura, ICICI Securities, SBI Capital, DAM Capital, and Nuvama Wealth.
• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
• As per the Fitch report, the firm was one of India’s largest international infrastructure companies as per the 2023 ENR top international contractors ranking, based on FY23 international revenue.

• UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023, despite falling slightly short of its annual target.
• The company’s sales and profit ranked as the third best in its nearly seven decades of operation.
• CEO Matt Missad and CFO Mike Cole laid out UFP’s achievements, plans for 2024, and long-term objectives in their earnings call.

ADS-TEC Energy operates in an emerging market serving the changing grid and power management requirements of an electrifying world. Its key market at present is for battery-buffered ultra-fast charging systems for electric vehicles (EVs). This is starting to produce tangible positive results, with the business EBITDA positive in Q423. Hence, ADS-TEC offers a de-risking investment into the electrification of the energy system, including the growth of EVs through the associated charging infrastructure.