Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

By David Blennerhassett

  • Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative
  • Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 
  • Soho China (410 HK)‘s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone’s deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?

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Daily Brief Industrials: 51 Job Inc Adr, Arwana Citramulia, The Keepers Holdings, Inc., FedEx Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • 51job’s Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Polished Porcelain Performance
  • Keepers Holdings: 4.5x PE (Ex-Cash), Cash 50% of Mkt Cap, Structural Double Digit Growth
  • FedEx Corporation: Partnership With Boxed, Business Strategy & Key Drivers, inancial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

51job’s Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 1 March, 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) entered into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, down 22.8% from the initial terms.
  • This merger was approved at an EGM on the 27 April and became effective on the 6 May.
  • Court proceedings have commenced for dissenters, accounting for a staggering 30.9% of shares out. It’s not just “fair value” under the microscope; but the legality of the downward revision.

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Polished Porcelain Performance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia‘s latest 1H2022 numbers unline its prowess in navigating a difficult operating environment with growing production volumes and better margins as it continues to improve its product mix.
  • An ongoing shift to its higher-end products through line conversion to Digi Uno plus additional capacity for its ARNA porcelain tiles will underpin growth and pricing this year and next.
  • Arwana Citramulia continues to expand its distribution through Catur Sentosa and now through MITRA10, which now sells ARNA tiles. Valuations are attractive and analyst forecasts look shy of the mark.

Keepers Holdings: 4.5x PE (Ex-Cash), Cash 50% of Mkt Cap, Structural Double Digit Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM), the largest imported spirit distributor in the Philippines with >70% marketshare, now trades at 9.1x/7.6x FY22/FY23e with a 15-20% CAGR revenue/profit growth profile.
  • The company has almost 50% of its market capitalization in cash, and we believe it is at the cusp of making an acquisition, making it more integrated. 
  • We believe for the Q2 2022 results ( released before the 15th of August ), the company will continue to show a growth profit trajectory of >20% and execute well.

FedEx Corporation: Partnership With Boxed, Business Strategy & Key Drivers, inancial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • FedEx ended the 2022 fiscal year with its highest-ever revenue of $93.5 billion and adjusted operating income of $6.9 billion, both up 11% year over year, in the face of an increasingly difficult global backdrop.
  • After a successful turnaround effort, the company has been enjoying the fruits of a successful long-term strategy.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Industrials: 51 Job Inc Adr, Arwana Citramulia, The Keepers Holdings, Inc., FedEx Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • 51job’s Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Polished Porcelain Performance
  • Keepers Holdings: 4.5x PE (Ex-Cash), Cash 50% of Mkt Cap, Structural Double Digit Growth
  • FedEx Corporation: Partnership With Boxed, Business Strategy & Key Drivers, inancial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

51job’s Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 1 March, 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) entered into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, down 22.8% from the initial terms.
  • This merger was approved at an EGM on the 27 April and became effective on the 6 May.
  • Court proceedings have commenced for dissenters, accounting for a staggering 30.9% of shares out. It’s not just “fair value” under the microscope; but the legality of the downward revision.

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Polished Porcelain Performance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia‘s latest 1H2022 numbers unline its prowess in navigating a difficult operating environment with growing production volumes and better margins as it continues to improve its product mix.
  • An ongoing shift to its higher-end products through line conversion to Digi Uno plus additional capacity for its ARNA porcelain tiles will underpin growth and pricing this year and next.
  • Arwana Citramulia continues to expand its distribution through Catur Sentosa and now through MITRA10, which now sells ARNA tiles. Valuations are attractive and analyst forecasts look shy of the mark.

Keepers Holdings: 4.5x PE (Ex-Cash), Cash 50% of Mkt Cap, Structural Double Digit Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM), the largest imported spirit distributor in the Philippines with >70% marketshare, now trades at 9.1x/7.6x FY22/FY23e with a 15-20% CAGR revenue/profit growth profile.
  • The company has almost 50% of its market capitalization in cash, and we believe it is at the cusp of making an acquisition, making it more integrated. 
  • We believe for the Q2 2022 results ( released before the 15th of August ), the company will continue to show a growth profit trajectory of >20% and execute well.

FedEx Corporation: Partnership With Boxed, Business Strategy & Key Drivers, inancial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • FedEx ended the 2022 fiscal year with its highest-ever revenue of $93.5 billion and adjusted operating income of $6.9 billion, both up 11% year over year, in the face of an increasingly difficult global backdrop.
  • After a successful turnaround effort, the company has been enjoying the fruits of a successful long-term strategy.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hitachi Transport System, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, WCP, Yamato Holdings, Nordex SE, Brenntag AG, Brambles Ltd, Waste Management and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hitachi Transport (9086 JP): STILL Trading Too Wide
  • NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September
  • WCP IPO: Additional Important Considerations
  • Yamato Builds Courier Ecosystem
  • DAX/​MDAX/​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX
  • Mayar Capital Q1 2022 Letter To Partners
  • Cooper Investors Australian Equities Fund Quarterly Update – June 2022
  • Waste Management, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)
  • Waste Management, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Leadership, Macro, & Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)
  • Republic Services, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP): STILL Trading Too Wide

By Travis Lundy

  • Overnight we got news that the EU had cleared the purchase of Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) by the KKR bidco.
  • What started as an expected five-month process to gain regulatory clearances should now be down to two months. Risk arb is trading wide, but this is an “easy” deal.
  • Now trading at 10% annualised to the cash-out date implied by a 30-Sep start date, this is a “good risk.”


WCP IPO: Additional Important Considerations

By Douglas Kim

  • We remain Bearish on the WCP IPO. Our base case valuation of WCP is implied market cap of 3.0 trillion won and target price of 87,805 won per share.
  • In this insight, we highlight four additional important considerations to the WCP IPO including comparison to SK IE Technology, 1Q22 earnings comparison, higher IPO discount, and overly optimistic EBITDA estimates. 
  • We would categorize WCP as an excellent company but not exceptional as HPSP. Therefore, the weak market conditions will likely have a negative impact on the WCP IPO pricing.

Yamato Builds Courier Ecosystem

By Michael Causton

  • Yamato Transport is Japan’s largest courier service, owning nearly 50% share, but even the biggest player needs to race to keep up with booming demand for e-commerce. 
  • Over the past six years, it has gradually built an ecosystem of online tools and physical infrastructure to help vendors and customers, importing knowhow when needed.
  • So far, these measures have helped it stay on top of spiralling demand but there remain pressures.

DAX/​MDAX/​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.
  • While no names currently satisfy the requirements to move into or out of the DAX Index, there could be some changes for the MDAX and SDAX Index.
  • Below is a closer look at the recent price and volume performance of these names.

Mayar Capital Q1 2022 Letter To Partners

By Fund Newsletters

  • Mayar Capital provides investment management services to institutions, family offices, and high net-worth individuals.
  • For the three months ending March 31, 2021, Mayar Fund (Class A) was down 6.6% net of all expenses and fees.
  • Several of our SMA clients have chosen to switch their investment to the Fund, so we expect Fund assets to increase to approximately $170 million once the transfer is complete.

Cooper Investors Australian Equities Fund Quarterly Update – June 2022

By Fund Newsletters

  • Cooper Investors Pty Limited (“CI”) is a specialist equities fund manager with funds under management of approximately A$13 billion.
  • Both stocks and bonds performed poorly over the last 12 months, pulling back 10 year returns to single digit levels.
  • Only physical commodities offered respite, a function of the inflationary forces driving their prices higher.

Waste Management, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Waste Management Inc is the market leader in the waste management business with a dominant share in the U.S. market.
  • The company’s strong performance in the initial months of the year has set the tone for the remainder of 2022.
  • Among major developments, the seventeenth R&D plant in their network and the fifth created by Waste Management will be coming online shortly in Oklahoma.

Waste Management, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Leadership, Macro, & Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Waste Management Inc, the market leader in the waste management business.
  • Waste Management has also been working towards optimizing cost structures and reducing operating expenses.
  • Among major developments, the seventeenth R&D plant in their network and the fifth created by Waste Management will be coming online shortly in Oklahoma.

Republic Services, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Republic Services is a major player within the waste management and environmental services space.
  • The management has invested more than $900 million in acquisitions that increased free cash flow and enhanced the market position of the company.
  • Among major developments, Republic Services entered into a joint venture with Archaea Energy Inc. to develop 39 RNG projects over the U.S.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hitachi Transport System, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, WCP, Yamato Holdings, Nordex SE, Brenntag AG, Brambles Ltd, Waste Management and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hitachi Transport (9086 JP): STILL Trading Too Wide
  • NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September
  • WCP IPO: Additional Important Considerations
  • Yamato Builds Courier Ecosystem
  • DAX/​MDAX/​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX
  • Mayar Capital Q1 2022 Letter To Partners
  • Cooper Investors Australian Equities Fund Quarterly Update – June 2022
  • Waste Management, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)
  • Waste Management, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Leadership, Macro, & Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)
  • Republic Services, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP): STILL Trading Too Wide

By Travis Lundy

  • Overnight we got news that the EU had cleared the purchase of Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) by the KKR bidco.
  • What started as an expected five-month process to gain regulatory clearances should now be down to two months. Risk arb is trading wide, but this is an “easy” deal.
  • Now trading at 10% annualised to the cash-out date implied by a 30-Sep start date, this is a “good risk.”


WCP IPO: Additional Important Considerations

By Douglas Kim

  • We remain Bearish on the WCP IPO. Our base case valuation of WCP is implied market cap of 3.0 trillion won and target price of 87,805 won per share.
  • In this insight, we highlight four additional important considerations to the WCP IPO including comparison to SK IE Technology, 1Q22 earnings comparison, higher IPO discount, and overly optimistic EBITDA estimates. 
  • We would categorize WCP as an excellent company but not exceptional as HPSP. Therefore, the weak market conditions will likely have a negative impact on the WCP IPO pricing.

Yamato Builds Courier Ecosystem

By Michael Causton

  • Yamato Transport is Japan’s largest courier service, owning nearly 50% share, but even the biggest player needs to race to keep up with booming demand for e-commerce. 
  • Over the past six years, it has gradually built an ecosystem of online tools and physical infrastructure to help vendors and customers, importing knowhow when needed.
  • So far, these measures have helped it stay on top of spiralling demand but there remain pressures.

DAX/​MDAX/​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.
  • While no names currently satisfy the requirements to move into or out of the DAX Index, there could be some changes for the MDAX and SDAX Index.
  • Below is a closer look at the recent price and volume performance of these names.

Mayar Capital Q1 2022 Letter To Partners

By Fund Newsletters

  • Mayar Capital provides investment management services to institutions, family offices, and high net-worth individuals.
  • For the three months ending March 31, 2021, Mayar Fund (Class A) was down 6.6% net of all expenses and fees.
  • Several of our SMA clients have chosen to switch their investment to the Fund, so we expect Fund assets to increase to approximately $170 million once the transfer is complete.

Cooper Investors Australian Equities Fund Quarterly Update – June 2022

By Fund Newsletters

  • Cooper Investors Pty Limited (“CI”) is a specialist equities fund manager with funds under management of approximately A$13 billion.
  • Both stocks and bonds performed poorly over the last 12 months, pulling back 10 year returns to single digit levels.
  • Only physical commodities offered respite, a function of the inflationary forces driving their prices higher.

Waste Management, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Waste Management Inc is the market leader in the waste management business with a dominant share in the U.S. market.
  • The company’s strong performance in the initial months of the year has set the tone for the remainder of 2022.
  • Among major developments, the seventeenth R&D plant in their network and the fifth created by Waste Management will be coming online shortly in Oklahoma.

Waste Management, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Leadership, Macro, & Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Waste Management Inc, the market leader in the waste management business.
  • Waste Management has also been working towards optimizing cost structures and reducing operating expenses.
  • Among major developments, the seventeenth R&D plant in their network and the fifth created by Waste Management will be coming online shortly in Oklahoma.

Republic Services, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Republic Services is a major player within the waste management and environmental services space.
  • The management has invested more than $900 million in acquisitions that increased free cash flow and enhanced the market position of the company.
  • Among major developments, Republic Services entered into a joint venture with Archaea Energy Inc. to develop 39 RNG projects over the U.S.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Bharat FIH, Nidec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) Update – Shares Down Since Last Look, “News” Isn’t Really. IRR Grid.
  • Toshiba – The Bidders Emerge
  • Bharat FIH IPO: Rife with Bottlenecks
  • Nidec (6594) | The Number One EV Play in Japan

Toshiba (6502) Update – Shares Down Since Last Look, “News” Isn’t Really. IRR Grid.

By Travis Lundy

  • Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update “Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
  • Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
  • Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for “measures to enhance corporate value” and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 

Toshiba – The Bidders Emerge

By Mio Kato

  • The Nikkei reported yesterday that Toshiba had winnowed the pool of potential partners down to four candidates. 
  • All four names (Bain, CVC, Brookfield and Japan Industrial Partners/Japan Investment Corp) have been connected to Toshiba previously. 
  • We wonder whether this pool of candidates points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full buyout.

Bharat FIH IPO: Rife with Bottlenecks

By Arun George

  • Bharat FIH (BFIH IN) is India’s largest Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) provider and the largest mobile phone manufacturing and assembly services provider to Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)
  • It has received Sebi approval for an IPO to raise Rs50,038 million (US$625 million), split equally between a primary and secondary raise. The offer will launch in August. 
  • The fundamentals are challenged due to its reliance on Xiaomi, market share pressure, glacial revenue diversification, low margin and cash burn. We would pass on the IPO.

Nidec (6594) | The Number One EV Play in Japan

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported 1Q earnings with clear evidence that near-turn earnings have bottomed. Now the market can focus on what matters, E-Axles 
  • The E-Axle outlook strong than ever across demand, production, and profitability  
  • We are bullish on the stock at 30x forward earnings versus the 5-year average of 55x, especially as China accelerates policies to drive EV adoption

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Bharat FIH, Nidec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) Update – Shares Down Since Last Look, “News” Isn’t Really. IRR Grid.
  • Toshiba – The Bidders Emerge
  • Bharat FIH IPO: Rife with Bottlenecks
  • Nidec (6594) | The Number One EV Play in Japan

Toshiba (6502) Update – Shares Down Since Last Look, “News” Isn’t Really. IRR Grid.

By Travis Lundy

  • Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update “Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
  • Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
  • Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for “measures to enhance corporate value” and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 

Toshiba – The Bidders Emerge

By Mio Kato

  • The Nikkei reported yesterday that Toshiba had winnowed the pool of potential partners down to four candidates. 
  • All four names (Bain, CVC, Brookfield and Japan Industrial Partners/Japan Investment Corp) have been connected to Toshiba previously. 
  • We wonder whether this pool of candidates points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full buyout.

Bharat FIH IPO: Rife with Bottlenecks

By Arun George

  • Bharat FIH (BFIH IN) is India’s largest Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) provider and the largest mobile phone manufacturing and assembly services provider to Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)
  • It has received Sebi approval for an IPO to raise Rs50,038 million (US$625 million), split equally between a primary and secondary raise. The offer will launch in August. 
  • The fundamentals are challenged due to its reliance on Xiaomi, market share pressure, glacial revenue diversification, low margin and cash burn. We would pass on the IPO.

Nidec (6594) | The Number One EV Play in Japan

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported 1Q earnings with clear evidence that near-turn earnings have bottomed. Now the market can focus on what matters, E-Axles 
  • The E-Axle outlook strong than ever across demand, production, and profitability  
  • We are bullish on the stock at 30x forward earnings versus the 5-year average of 55x, especially as China accelerates policies to drive EV adoption

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Industrials: Nidec Corp, Adani Enterprises, Sebit Chem, Bangkok Expressway and Metro, Dredging Corp Of India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions – 3 In, 3 Out
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement
  • Sebit Chem IPO Preview – A Major Competitor to Sungeel Hitech in Rechargeable Batteries Recycling
  • BEM : Expect 2Q22 Earnings to Hit 11 Quarter High
  • Sebit Chem Valuation Analysis
  • Dredging Corp Of India: Lapse of Governance Controls

Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions – 3 In, 3 Out

By Travis Lundy

  • The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.
  • I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).
  • The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. 

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

By Brian Freitas


Sebit Chem IPO Preview – A Major Competitor to Sungeel Hitech in Rechargeable Batteries Recycling

By Douglas Kim

  • Sebit Chem is getting ready to complete its IPO in early August. The IPO price range is from 25,000 won to 30,000 won.
  • The IPO base deal size is from US$21 million to US$25 million. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 126 billion won to 151 billion won.
  • Sebit Chem is one of the competitors to Sungeel Hitech which completed a very successful IPO book building. Sebit Chem is also likely to enjoy strong demand among many investors. 

BEM : Expect 2Q22 Earnings to Hit 11 Quarter High

By Pi Research

  • Maintain BUY recommendation for BEM with a target price of Bt9.50.We expect the company to report 2Q22 net profit at Bt577m,the highest level in the past 11 quarter, mainly supported
  • Strong recovery in earnings in2Q22 and 2H22 2Q22 Revenue shall be reported at Bt3.3bn (+36%YoY +6%QoQ) supported by solid rebound in daily average MRT ridership to 231k trips (+94%YoY +23%QoQ) 
  • We anticipate average daily MRT ridership to recover substantially in 2H22 to around 310k trips by end of this year,the level last time we have seen in Nov’21. However, pre-COVID

Sebit Chem Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Sebit Chem IPO is target price of 50,775 won which is 69% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Sebit Chem’s business is now mainly composed of recycling waste rechargeable batteries and waste acid (mostly from semiconductor and LCD related products).
  • Our base case valuation is based on 23.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 10.8 billion won in 2023. 

Dredging Corp Of India: Lapse of Governance Controls

By Nitin Mangal

  • Dredging Corp Of India (DCIL IN) has been seeing a heavy churn in top personnel lately, including the most critical sacking of MD and CEO, Mr. G.Y.V Victor.
  • It was reported that there has been suppression of facts, material misrepresentation of facts and false claims in support of his experience criteria submitted by GYV Victor.
  • This is a key governance red flag and the fact that the investigation was made after one year of his appointment indicates loopholes in the governance and recruitment controls.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nidec Corp, Adani Enterprises, Sebit Chem, Bangkok Expressway and Metro, Dredging Corp Of India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions – 3 In, 3 Out
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement
  • Sebit Chem IPO Preview – A Major Competitor to Sungeel Hitech in Rechargeable Batteries Recycling
  • BEM : Expect 2Q22 Earnings to Hit 11 Quarter High
  • Sebit Chem Valuation Analysis
  • Dredging Corp Of India: Lapse of Governance Controls

Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions – 3 In, 3 Out

By Travis Lundy

  • The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.
  • I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).
  • The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. 

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

By Brian Freitas


Sebit Chem IPO Preview – A Major Competitor to Sungeel Hitech in Rechargeable Batteries Recycling

By Douglas Kim

  • Sebit Chem is getting ready to complete its IPO in early August. The IPO price range is from 25,000 won to 30,000 won.
  • The IPO base deal size is from US$21 million to US$25 million. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 126 billion won to 151 billion won.
  • Sebit Chem is one of the competitors to Sungeel Hitech which completed a very successful IPO book building. Sebit Chem is also likely to enjoy strong demand among many investors. 

BEM : Expect 2Q22 Earnings to Hit 11 Quarter High

By Pi Research

  • Maintain BUY recommendation for BEM with a target price of Bt9.50.We expect the company to report 2Q22 net profit at Bt577m,the highest level in the past 11 quarter, mainly supported
  • Strong recovery in earnings in2Q22 and 2H22 2Q22 Revenue shall be reported at Bt3.3bn (+36%YoY +6%QoQ) supported by solid rebound in daily average MRT ridership to 231k trips (+94%YoY +23%QoQ) 
  • We anticipate average daily MRT ridership to recover substantially in 2H22 to around 310k trips by end of this year,the level last time we have seen in Nov’21. However, pre-COVID

Sebit Chem Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Sebit Chem IPO is target price of 50,775 won which is 69% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Sebit Chem’s business is now mainly composed of recycling waste rechargeable batteries and waste acid (mostly from semiconductor and LCD related products).
  • Our base case valuation is based on 23.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 10.8 billion won in 2023. 

Dredging Corp Of India: Lapse of Governance Controls

By Nitin Mangal

  • Dredging Corp Of India (DCIL IN) has been seeing a heavy churn in top personnel lately, including the most critical sacking of MD and CEO, Mr. G.Y.V Victor.
  • It was reported that there has been suppression of facts, material misrepresentation of facts and false claims in support of his experience criteria submitted by GYV Victor.
  • This is a key governance red flag and the fact that the investigation was made after one year of his appointment indicates loopholes in the governance and recruitment controls.

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Daily Brief Industrials: LG Energy Solution, Nidec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Largest Lockup Release of the Lot at US$3bn
  • Nidec (6594) | Q1 to Beat on Falling Raw Material Costs

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Largest Lockup Release of the Lot at US$3bn

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Energy Solution (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO. The stock was listed on 27th Jan 22. Its six-month lockup is set to expire soon.
  • LGES is the EV battery unit of LG Chem. The company is a major supplier to customers including Tesla and General Motors.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Nidec (6594) | Q1 to Beat on Falling Raw Material Costs

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec share price has declined by 32% YTD on the temporary impact of inflation and lockdowns 
  • We expect a Q1 beat (tomorrow) as lower raw material input costs and the weak yen boost operating profits 
  • We are bullish on the stock at 31x forward earnings versus the 5-year average of 55x, especially as China accelerates policies to drive EV adoption  

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