Category

Industrials

Daily Brief Industrials: Atlas Arteria, Moya Holdings Asia, Volkswagen (Pref), CALB, Hyundai Heavy Industries, China Conch Venture Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Atlas Arteria Placement – How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder
  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): Acquisition, ANREO & ASX50 Inclusion
  • Moya Holding’s S$0.092 Delisting Offer
  • Moya Holdings: Anthoni Salim’s Exit Offer
  • EQD | Volkswagen (VOW3 GY): Porsche IPO Could Unlock Value-We Look at the Best Derivative Trades
  • CALB Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans
  • CALB IPO: Solid PHIP Results Offset by Further Market Downturn
  • Hyundai Heavy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups with Employees Coming Free
  • Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

Atlas Arteria Placement – How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

By Sumeet Singh

  • Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.
  • Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): Acquisition, ANREO & ASX50 Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) is acquiring 66.67% in Skyway Concession Company LLC, the concessionaire of the Chicago Skyway for an equity value of US$2.013bn (A$3.098bn).
  • The acquisition will be funded by a fully underwritten 1:1.95 ANREO to raise A$3.098bn. The offer price of A$6.3/share is a 13.7% discount to TERP and 19.3% discount to last.
  • The increase in market cap could result in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) being added to the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the December rebalance.

Moya Holding’s S$0.092 Delisting Offer

By Arun George

  • Moya Holdings Asia (MHAL SP) received a delisting proposal from Tamaris Infrastructure (a 72.84% shareholder) at S$0.092 per share, a 41.5% premium to the undisturbed price (8 September).
  • The key condition is shareholder approval. Gateway Partners, which holds a blocking stake, will likely use the offer as an opportunity to exit an underperforming investment.
  • The offer price is attractive. At the last close price, the gross and annualised spread for a year-end effective date is 3.4% and 11.5%, respectively.

Moya Holdings: Anthoni Salim’s Exit Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Indonesian water treatment play Moya Holdings Asia (MHAL SP) has announced an Exit Offer from Tamaris Infrastructure, an Anthoni Salim-controlled entity.
  • The Offer price is S$0.092/share, a 41.5% premium to last close. The Offer price will not be increased.
  • The Offer requires approval from 75% of disinterested shareholders. Tamaris and its concert parties hold 72.84%.

EQD | Volkswagen (VOW3 GY): Porsche IPO Could Unlock Value-We Look at the Best Derivative Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Volkswagen are planning to IPO Porsche in order to address company valuation and to raise funds to further expand into the EV market.
  • The stock looks attractive on a valuation basis and the company has the potential to transform and future proof the business and gain a more favourable P/E ratio.
  • We look at the Derivatives Market for the best risk reward strategies.

CALB Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.
  • In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about the company’s expansion plans.

CALB IPO: Solid PHIP Results Offset by Further Market Downturn

By Douglas Kim

  • CALB’s revenue surged by 266% YoY to reach 3.9 billion RMB in 1Q 2022. Its  operating profit also increased by 43.5% YoY in 1Q 2022, respectively. 
  • CALB also had the highest sales growth rate of 266.5% YoY in 1Q 2022 versus 154% growth YoY for CATL and 63% growth YoY for BYD in 1Q 2022.
  • CALB is one of the most interesting large cap IPOs globally in 2022. Despite horrible market conditions, the company is trying to complete its IPO in the next several weeks.

Hyundai Heavy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups with Employees Coming Free

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) was listed on Korea Exchange on 17th September, 2021. Its one year lock-up will expire on 17th Sep, 2022.
  • Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) is a South Korean shipbuilder. The company is majority owned by Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) after the latter’s spin-off in 2019.
  • In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry, along with recent updates.

Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is now at negative stub value, the low-end since 2020. This is despite a 16.4% growth in 1H22 core earnings to Rmb542m.
  • The company’s waste-to-energy (WTE) capacity will increase by 25% in FY23 and its internal target calls for an earnings CAGR of 33% between FY21 and FY25 for WTE segment.
  • We should not underestimate the potential from new business initiatives including cathode and anode materials and lithium battery recycling. They have good medium-to-long term exposure to China’s new energy industry.

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Daily Brief Industrials: San Miguel, CALB, WCP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes
  • CALB Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Growth Picking up Further, Margins Turnaround
  • WCP IPO – 2Q22 Updates and Valuation Refresh

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • From December 2022, the minimum free float requirement to be a part of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) increases from 15% to 20%.
  • This could result in three deletions from the index which will result in three stocks being added to the index. Passive trackers selling the deletes will push the stocks lower.
  • The three current constituents could remain in the index if they sell stock to increase the free float. That would in turn put downward pressure on the stocks.

CALB Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Growth Picking up Further, Margins Turnaround

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products. 
  • In this note, we talk about the updates from the company’s recent PHIP filings.

WCP IPO – 2Q22 Updates and Valuation Refresh

By Sumeet Singh

  • WCP aims to raise around US$690m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO. Its demand forecasting is slated to take place today and tomorrow.
  • WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries
  • In this note, we will talk about the updates from the revised filing, and re-look at valuations.

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Daily Brief Industrials: San Miguel, CALB, WCP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes
  • CALB Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Growth Picking up Further, Margins Turnaround
  • WCP IPO – 2Q22 Updates and Valuation Refresh

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • From December 2022, the minimum free float requirement to be a part of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) increases from 15% to 20%.
  • This could result in three deletions from the index which will result in three stocks being added to the index. Passive trackers selling the deletes will push the stocks lower.
  • The three current constituents could remain in the index if they sell stock to increase the free float. That would in turn put downward pressure on the stocks.

CALB Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Growth Picking up Further, Margins Turnaround

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products. 
  • In this note, we talk about the updates from the company’s recent PHIP filings.

WCP IPO – 2Q22 Updates and Valuation Refresh

By Sumeet Singh

  • WCP aims to raise around US$690m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO. Its demand forecasting is slated to take place today and tomorrow.
  • WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries
  • In this note, we will talk about the updates from the revised filing, and re-look at valuations.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Vietjet Aviation Jsc, WCP, United Tractors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes
  • WCP IPO: Valuation Uncompelling
  • United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – One Month To Go

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • Hagl Jsc (HAG VN) is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.
  • There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.
  • There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.

WCP IPO: Valuation Uncompelling

By Arun George


United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – One Month To Go

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-July, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a buyback of up to 5 trillion rupiah, buying back “up to 20% of shares out.”  
  • In United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – Sure to Be Impactful I said the buyback would be smaller than the headlines, but still likely quite impactful. 
  • On Day 1, shares rose 5% to IDR 28,275. Since then the stock is up an additional 22%. Now we have a month left. There may be more juice still. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Vietjet Aviation Jsc, WCP, United Tractors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes
  • WCP IPO: Valuation Uncompelling
  • United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – One Month To Go

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • Hagl Jsc (HAG VN) is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.
  • There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.
  • There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.

WCP IPO: Valuation Uncompelling

By Arun George


United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – One Month To Go

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-July, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a buyback of up to 5 trillion rupiah, buying back “up to 20% of shares out.”  
  • In United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – Sure to Be Impactful I said the buyback would be smaller than the headlines, but still likely quite impactful. 
  • On Day 1, shares rose 5% to IDR 28,275. Since then the stock is up an additional 22%. Now we have a month left. There may be more juice still. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: CALB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • CALB IPO Preview

CALB IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB) is getting ready for an IPO in Hong Kong.
  • In the past several days, CALB received the approval from the Hong Kong stock exchange for an IPO.
  • In the next two years, CALB expects its production capacity for lithium batteries to increase to about 55 GWh which is more than 6x the capacity at end of 2021. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: CALB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • CALB IPO Preview

CALB IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB) is getting ready for an IPO in Hong Kong.
  • In the past several days, CALB received the approval from the Hong Kong stock exchange for an IPO.
  • In the next two years, CALB expects its production capacity for lithium batteries to increase to about 55 GWh which is more than 6x the capacity at end of 2021. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Enphase Energy, Sunrun Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Enphase Energy: The GreenCom Networks Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Sunrun Inc: New Level 2 EV Charger & Other Drivers

Enphase Energy: The GreenCom Networks Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Enphase had a good quarter and managed to exceed Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • Its total revenue for the second quarter was $530.2 million, an increase of 20% from the previous quarter.
  • In the third quarter, they supplied microinverters rated at about 1,213 megawatts DC and actuators rated at 132.4-megawatt hours.

Sunrun Inc: New Level 2 EV Charger & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sunrun delivered a solid result, surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • The company exceeded its volume projection and had almost 34,400 additional customers in the second quarter, including over 25,000 new subscribers.
  • Sunrun’s subscriber additions increased from almost 72% in Q1 to nearly 74% of its overall customer additions for the time period.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Enphase Energy, Sunrun Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Enphase Energy: The GreenCom Networks Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Sunrun Inc: New Level 2 EV Charger & Other Drivers

Enphase Energy: The GreenCom Networks Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Enphase had a good quarter and managed to exceed Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • Its total revenue for the second quarter was $530.2 million, an increase of 20% from the previous quarter.
  • In the third quarter, they supplied microinverters rated at about 1,213 megawatts DC and actuators rated at 132.4-megawatt hours.

Sunrun Inc: New Level 2 EV Charger & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sunrun delivered a solid result, surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • The company exceeded its volume projection and had almost 34,400 additional customers in the second quarter, including over 25,000 new subscribers.
  • Sunrun’s subscriber additions increased from almost 72% in Q1 to nearly 74% of its overall customer additions for the time period.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Dongfang Electric, Model Solution, Cummins Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): At Full Throttle
  • Model Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Cummins Inc: The Meritor Acquisition & Other Drivers

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): At Full Throttle

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Strong new orders in 2H22 and FY23 are the drivers for Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) after it posted a 31.6% earnings growth and new orders of Rmb36.7bn in 1H22.
  • Demand outlook for its major products including coal-fired, gas turbine, renewable, pumped storage and hydrogen energy are all very encouraging. 
  • We estimate order backlog will equal to 1.6x FY22F revenue by year-end. Despite solid outperformance, DEC is still cheap at 12.6x and 9.8x PERs for FY22 and FY23.

Model Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Model Solution is implied market cap of 156 billion won and target price of 24,417 won. 
  • The IPO valuation range is from 24,000 won to 27,000 won and our target price would be close to the low end of the IPO price range.
  • Given the low upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO. 

Cummins Inc: The Meritor Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cummins delivered a third consecutive all-around beat in a quarter that was marked by a number of significant developments including many ke partnerships.
  • The company announced partnerships with Daimler Truck, Scania, and North America for delivering fuel cell electric powertrains for heavy-duty truck applications, with Komatsu on developing haulage equipment zero-emission which includes hydrogen fuel cell solutions for the large mining haul truck applications.
  • It also achieved a significant milestone in the quarter related to two acquisitions, namely Meritor and Jacobs Vehicle Systems.

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