Industrials

Toshiba (6502 JP) investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and others. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) is cheap. It appears to be running at 6x 2022 earnings. This is not abnormal for a cyclical at the end of the cycle.
Westpac Banking (WBC AU) confirms its interest in Tyro Payments (TYR AU), but still nothing firm.

FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Countryside Deletion and Many Other Intra-Review Changes in Nov

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.
There are multiple FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 constituents involved in M&A situations and there could be around five intra-review changes during 4Q 2022.
Most interestingly, some of the names leading the race to become intra-review replacement ADDs seem to have decent volume impact.

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Oct 23

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Senior PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, United Tractor, Recruit, Tyro Payments, DTAC/True, Bank Of Kyoto
FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Countryside Deletion and Many Other Intra-Review Changes in Nov

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, United Tractor, Recruit, Tyro Payments, DTAC/True, Bank Of Kyoto

Toshiba (6502 JP) investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and others. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) is cheap. It appears to be running at 6x 2022 earnings. This is not abnormal for a cyclical at the end of the cycle.
Westpac Banking (WBC AU) confirms its interest in Tyro Payments (TYR AU), but still nothing firm.

FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Countryside Deletion and Many Other Intra-Review Changes in Nov

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.
There are multiple FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 constituents involved in M&A situations and there could be around five intra-review changes during 4Q 2022.
Most interestingly, some of the names leading the race to become intra-review replacement ADDs seem to have decent volume impact.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Oct 22

Daily Brief Industrials: Textron Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Textron Inc: New Product Launches & Other Developments

Textron Inc: New Product Launches & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

Textron has its results just around the corner and there is a good chance that the company may deliver an all-around beat.
It had a solid previous quarter with strong execution and higher revenues that resulted in segment profit margin.
On the innovation front, Textron delivered the foremost Cessna SkyCourier to its launch customer FedEx and the foremost XLS Gen2 aircraft.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Oct 22

Daily Brief Industrials: Textron Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Textron Inc: New Product Launches & Other Developments

Textron Inc: New Product Launches & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

Textron has its results just around the corner and there is a good chance that the company may deliver an all-around beat.
It had a solid previous quarter with strong execution and higher revenues that resulted in segment profit margin.
On the innovation front, Textron delivered the foremost Cessna SkyCourier to its launch customer FedEx and the foremost XLS Gen2 aircraft.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Oct 19

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Recruit Holdings, Bobst Group SA, Berli Jucker, China Energy Engineering and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News
Recruit Buyback – A Temporary Support to Falling Share Price
Bobst’s Minorities Takeout: Additional Acceptance Period
Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name
Energy China (3996 HK): Positive Developments in All Fronts

Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

A week after JIP gets preferred status and we had rumoured bid prices, we now have an article saying JIC/Bain is still in it, and a new article today.
Today’s “new” article says JIP’s bid price is what the first leak suggested, which is below ¥6,000/share. Other articles suggest bidders are finding that securing financing is tough.
Investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and most others. It matters. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.

Recruit Buyback – A Temporary Support to Falling Share Price

Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) announced a buyback yesterday for a maximum of 42m (2.55% of total shares outstanding) shares for an aggregate of JPY150bn from the market.
Recruit’s shares closed at JPY4,257 per share at the end of yesterday’s trading, and shares have moved up almost 5% during today’s trade following the buyback announcement.
This is Recruit’s second buyback in 2022 where some of its shareholders reduced their stakes during the previous buyback (tender offer agreements) in January this year.

Bobst’s Minorities Takeout: Additional Acceptance Period

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JBF now controls 63.66% of the share capital of Bobst. Tendered shares represent just c.10.3%. The additional acceptance period runs until 21 October.
The CHF 78/share offer represents 6.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA vs. 7.5x for Swiss industrial machinery peers. Unsurprisingly, the shares have been trading slightly above terms since the (opportunistic) offer announcement.
If 3.01% of shares are tendered during the reopened period, JBF could potentially delist the company. Although this could be challenged in courts, buying above the offer price seems risky.

Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) between now and the December 2022 Rebalance.
There is an ongoing market consultation with significant implications for constituent selection and there is also a potential intra-review change due to the DTAC-TRUE merger.
Based on the latest available data, there could three or four index changes during the December 2022 Rebalance depending on the outcome of the DTAC-TRUE merger.

Energy China (3996 HK): Positive Developments in All Fronts

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China Energy Engineering (3996 HK) witnessed a good acceleration in quarterly new contracts in this year. We estimate current backlog equals to 6.4x its FY21 revenue.
It is well geared towards China’s new energy development, as reflected by a 108.3% YoY surge in new energy contracts. Its pumped storage new contract value leaped 144x in 1H22.
The spin-off of Gezhouba Explosive in the A-share market is progressing well with approval from shareholders in Sep. The stock’s 4.1x PER and 0.33x P/B look undemanding.

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Oct 19

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Recruit Holdings, Bobst Group SA, Berli Jucker, China Energy Engineering and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News
Recruit Buyback – A Temporary Support to Falling Share Price
Bobst’s Minorities Takeout: Additional Acceptance Period
Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name
Energy China (3996 HK): Positive Developments in All Fronts

Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

A week after JIP gets preferred status and we had rumoured bid prices, we now have an article saying JIC/Bain is still in it, and a new article today.
Today’s “new” article says JIP’s bid price is what the first leak suggested, which is below ¥6,000/share. Other articles suggest bidders are finding that securing financing is tough.
Investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and most others. It matters. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.

Recruit Buyback – A Temporary Support to Falling Share Price

Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) announced a buyback yesterday for a maximum of 42m (2.55% of total shares outstanding) shares for an aggregate of JPY150bn from the market.
Recruit’s shares closed at JPY4,257 per share at the end of yesterday’s trading, and shares have moved up almost 5% during today’s trade following the buyback announcement.
This is Recruit’s second buyback in 2022 where some of its shareholders reduced their stakes during the previous buyback (tender offer agreements) in January this year.

Bobst’s Minorities Takeout: Additional Acceptance Period

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JBF now controls 63.66% of the share capital of Bobst. Tendered shares represent just c.10.3%. The additional acceptance period runs until 21 October.
The CHF 78/share offer represents 6.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA vs. 7.5x for Swiss industrial machinery peers. Unsurprisingly, the shares have been trading slightly above terms since the (opportunistic) offer announcement.
If 3.01% of shares are tendered during the reopened period, JBF could potentially delist the company. Although this could be challenged in courts, buying above the offer price seems risky.

Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) between now and the December 2022 Rebalance.
There is an ongoing market consultation with significant implications for constituent selection and there is also a potential intra-review change due to the DTAC-TRUE merger.
Based on the latest available data, there could three or four index changes during the December 2022 Rebalance depending on the outcome of the DTAC-TRUE merger.

Energy China (3996 HK): Positive Developments in All Fronts

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China Energy Engineering (3996 HK) witnessed a good acceleration in quarterly new contracts in this year. We estimate current backlog equals to 6.4x its FY21 revenue.
It is well geared towards China’s new energy development, as reflected by a 108.3% YoY surge in new energy contracts. Its pumped storage new contract value leaped 144x in 1H22.
The spin-off of Gezhouba Explosive in the A-share market is progressing well with approval from shareholders in Sep. The stock’s 4.1x PER and 0.33x P/B look undemanding.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Oct 18

Daily Brief Industrials: Recruit Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Recruit (6098) Launches ANOTHER Big Buyback

Recruit (6098) Launches ANOTHER Big Buyback

In January 2022, Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) launched a Tender Offer buyback to buy back shares from NTT Data, Hakuhodo, and TBS.
Today, Recruit announced another buyback of up to 42mm shares (2.57% of shares out) spending up to ¥150bn, to go from now until 14 March 2023 (5mos).
This time the buyback should have better traction and market impact, but it is not overwhelming, and the impact will likely lessen at higher share prices.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Oct 18

Daily Brief Industrials: Recruit Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Recruit (6098) Launches ANOTHER Big Buyback

Recruit (6098) Launches ANOTHER Big Buyback

In January 2022, Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) launched a Tender Offer buyback to buy back shares from NTT Data, Hakuhodo, and TBS.
Today, Recruit announced another buyback of up to 42mm shares (2.57% of shares out) spending up to ¥150bn, to go from now until 14 March 2023 (5mos).
This time the buyback should have better traction and market impact, but it is not overwhelming, and the impact will likely lessen at higher share prices.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Oct 16

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Samsung C&T, Taiwan Glass Industry, Golden Energy & Resources, Concord New Energy, Far Eastern New Century and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: Renault/Nissan, Toshiba, Golden Energy, Bilibili, Shinsei, Macau Casinos
Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage
FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: New Methodology! Massive Flow Implications!
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Elmo Software; Golden Energy, Kingston Financial, Pushpay
Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 14th Oct: Lion Rock, VCredit, Zhongsheng, Concord New Energy
FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Greatek Facing Div+ Index Deletion

Last Week In Event SPACE: Renault/Nissan, Toshiba, Golden Energy, Bilibili, Shinsei, Macau Casinos

In April, reportedly Renault (RNO FP) might sell Nissan (7201 JP) shares to support EV investments. We have news talks are coming to a head. The results won’t be pretty.
The Nikkei says the JIP consortium is the “Preferred Bidder” for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). That is a stalking horse. The proposed price of ¥2.5trn is also a stalking horse
Reportedly the Widjaja Family may be looking to take Indonesian/Australian energy/met coal play Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP) private.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.
In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.
We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.

FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: New Methodology! Massive Flow Implications!

On 20th September 2022, FTSE Russell commenced a market consultation with a goal of increasing the constituent count of the FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index from 30 to 50.
On 13th October 2022, FTSE Russell confirmed that the number of constituents in the FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index will be increased from 30 to 50.
In this insight, we take a look at the updated Ground Rules and Quiddity’s expectations for index flows during the December 2022 Rebalance.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Elmo Software; Golden Energy, Kingston Financial, Pushpay

There are 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new (possible) deals discussed this week: KKR’s tilt for Elmo (ELO AU); Widjaja Family’s move on Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Chu’s bid for Kingston Financial (1031 HK)
Key updates took place for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB), and PTB Group (PTB AU).

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 14th Oct: Lion Rock, VCredit, Zhongsheng, Concord New Energy

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Lion Rock (1127 HK), VCredit (2003 HK), Zhongsheng (881 HK), and Concord New Energy (182 HK).

FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Greatek Facing Div+ Index Deletion