Airport connectivity in Indonesia has reached a milestone last year when they announced the airport express but has there been any improvements in the service and load factor? The management company, Railink, definitely tries its best to upkeep their service level and increase awareness. Indonesian usage of internet through smartphones also tells about how important smartphones as a center of their daily life.
Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) has gone creative when it comes to increase their online and offline presence; not only having an app that is comparable to Grab and Uber but also creating a dedicated taxi waiting area in a mall. Is Go-jek only a ride hailing app? My experience on Go-send tells otherwise.
How about the upcoming Presidential election? What will happen in a rematch between Jokowi vs Prabowo? Does Prabowo really have no economic policy? His answer when asked on what sort of supportive policies to help Unicorns grow shed some light on his understandings and knowledge on economic policy.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
The rapidly improving outlook in the LNG industry over the last few years, reinforced towards the end of 2017 by the unexpected growth of demand from China, has set off a proliferation of new LNG projects especially from the US (Exhibit 1).
In its latest LNG Outlook report, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) is projecting from 2023 onwards a significant gap between the future LNG demand and the existing supply including the capacity under construction that could require up to 100mtpa of new LNG project sanctions by 2023.
The race to gain market share in the projected LNG demand-supply gap has produced an aggregated capacity of proposed new projects of up to 475mtpa, a number larger than the total LNG traded volume in 2018 of 319mtpa and way above the capacity required to meet the future growth in LNG demand.
Exhibit 1: Funnel of proposed LNG projects getting bigger
Source: Energy Market Square, interpretation of data from Shell LNG Outlook 2019, public filings. Higher probability rating depending on oil majors backing, level of offtake agreements, positive news flow catalysts (e.g. regulatory approval, equity financing, EPC agreements). Demand projection assumes 90% capacity utilization. Bubble size proportional to project capacity. The position of the bubbles within the probability ranges is random.
Two new and credible polls show Widodo leading by margins of 18-19 percentage points over Prabowo. This mitigates — but does not entirely eliminate — risks surrounding the 17 April election outlook. Polls show PDI-P and Gerindra gaining at the expense of Islamic parties. The 4th debate on 30 March could help Prabowo draw slightly closer. The planned US$400 million relocation of a textile plant from China to Central Java bodes well, but whether central government policies are supportive remains to be seen. Two SOEs are under corruption scrutiny: Krakatau Steel Persero Tbk (KRAS IJ) and Pupuk Indonesia. A reasonable MRT tariff is in place.
Politics: Coordinating Security Minister Wiranto threatened to invoke the Terrorism Law on those who advocate abstaining on election day. He may believe that high turnout will benefit President Joko Widodo – but the draconian threat will harm Widodo’s image more than it helps (Page 2). The next presidential debate on 30 March will likely feature discussion of Widodo’s proposal to place active military officers in civilian bureaucratic posts (Page 2). Vice‑presidential nominee Sandiaga Uno promised fisheries operators that he and Prabowo Subianto would overturn a ban on dragnet trawling (p. 4). Constitutional Court justices will prioritize the resolution of legislative election disputes (p. 5).
Surveys: With less than three weeks remaining until the 17 April election day, two more new polls show the lead for President Joko Widodo remains intact. A poll by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) took place from 15-22 March; it shows Widodo ahead by 18 percentage points, with 15 percent undecided. Similarly, a poll by Charta Politik showed Widodo leading by 19 points; it also implies that Islamic and Islamic‑oriented parties will shrink by a third on aggregate. Both polls indicate that the reform‑minded Solidarity Party (PSI) is unlikely to pass the four‑percent threshold required to occupy parliamentary seats; incumbent parties at risk of falling short are Hanura, the National Mandate Party (Pan) and the United Development Party (PPP) (p. 6).
Justice: Investigators from the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) made arrests in cases involving the state enterprises PT Krakatau Steel Tbk and PT Pupuk (p. 10).
Jakarta: Policymakers finally decided upon a reasonable tariff for the new Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) – Rp10,000 per 10 kilometers, with a maximum fare of Rp14,000 (p. 11).
Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.
Delivered electronically every Friday, Reformasi Weekly is written by Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.
Reformasi Weekly is a product of PT Reformasi Info Sastra.
Economics: Plans to relocate a sizeable Chinese textile plant in Central Java send a positive signal about manufacturing – but whether central‑government policies will be adequately supportive remains to be seen (p. 12).
Outlook: Plentiful poll data shows that Widodo has a comfortable margin of 55‑60 percent, with few factors likely to alter circumstances in the final three weeks. But his opponent is brazen and risks therefore exist. Widodo winning by only a very narrow margin is a scenario with a low probability – but a high potential impact. Prabowo has a penchant for protesting angrily, hard‑line supporters can inundate Jakarta and the Constitutional Court has a protracted schedule for resolving disputes (its deadline is 8 August) (p. 14).
The US-China trade dispute simmers on. Regardless of the outcome of talks between the two largest economies on earth, the damage to the existing world manufacturing trading order has already been done. China plus one is no longer a preferential industrial location strategy for multinational companies, it is an imperative. Like Brexit, companies are beginning to relocate out of China even before the dispute is either settled or escalated. Profits can’t wait for governments to behave sensibly.
But where to go? Indonesia and Vietnam are the most obvious potential beneficiaries of the fallout from the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. There are a number of alternatives but Indonesia and Vietnam both have large, youthful working populations (and really here we are talking about the accessible workforces on Java and in Vietnam) and both are located within easy reach of the existing Asian supply chain. But are both equally ready and equally keen to pick up the China baton? Vietnam is the obvious winner in this contest. Unfortunately, for institutional equity investors the market isn’t included in Asia-Pacific or emerging market benchmarks.
The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.
On Friday, March 15th, an estimated 1.6 million students in over 120 countries (source: Time magazine) walked out of classrooms and took to streets demanding radical climate action. Climate change activism rarely grabbed headlines or wider public attention as it is doing now. Rising climate activism will continue to train the spotlight on industries/businesses associated with carbon-emission making it increasingly difficult for them to expand capacities or secure funding. Large institutional investors – sovereign funds, pension funds, insurance companies – have begun toincorporate climate risk into investment policy and are limiting exposure to sectors that directly contribute to carbon emissions – primarily coal, crude oil producers and power plants based on them. Expect sector devaluation; active investors may well look beyond juicy near term earnings and dividend yield.
Even as scientists and meteorological organisations keep warning of dire consequences unless concrete action is taken to limit carbon emissions to stall climate change, political establishment/regulators in most countries are in denial while others are doing little more than lip service. If so, should corporates care? even though businesses are the ones that play a direct role in escalating carbon emissions. With rising consumer awareness and activism, several industries associated with carbon emissions are already facing operational and funding challenges; we believe, it pays for all businesses to be above par on ‘climate action’ – it would be in their own self-interest, not just general good. And do Investors bother?Under the aegis of Climate Action 100+, an investor initiative with 320 signatories having more than USD33 trillion in assets collectively under management, they have been engaging companies on improving governance, curbing emissions and strengthening climate-related financial disclosures. It has listed out Oil & Gas, Mining, Utilities and Auto manufacturers as target sectors. Investors have already been making an impact – by vote or exit. It sure makes logical sense to effect positive change and minimise climate risk when you have a long term investment horizon.
In the detailed note below we
discuss how rising consumer/investor activism and/or political/regulatory changes are posing challenges to key sectors –Coal, Oil & Gas, Automobiles/Aviation, Consumer goods – that are associated with carbon emissions.
analyse how rising climate activism is negatively impacting growth prospects and valuation of companies in these sectors.
highlight the opportunities for businesses to capitalise on changing consumer preferences for products that minimise carbon footprint and differentiate themselves by being on the right side of climate action.
present a quick primer on climate change and lay down the key facts and data on climate change as presented by World Meteorological Organisation, NASA and IPCC.
However, the report does NOT discuss potential risks to businesses from the aftermath of Climate change. Unlike our recently released report Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Bewarethat looked into sector’s environmental violations and attempted to estimate potential earnings/growth/valuation downside as leading textile players adopt sustainable practices, we believe the impact of unpredictable climate change poses a threat that is not easy to identify or quantify.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
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Two new and credible polls show Widodo leading by margins of 18-19 percentage points over Prabowo. This mitigates — but does not entirely eliminate — risks surrounding the 17 April election outlook. Polls show PDI-P and Gerindra gaining at the expense of Islamic parties. The 4th debate on 30 March could help Prabowo draw slightly closer. The planned US$400 million relocation of a textile plant from China to Central Java bodes well, but whether central government policies are supportive remains to be seen. Two SOEs are under corruption scrutiny: Krakatau Steel Persero Tbk (KRAS IJ) and Pupuk Indonesia. A reasonable MRT tariff is in place.
Politics: Coordinating Security Minister Wiranto threatened to invoke the Terrorism Law on those who advocate abstaining on election day. He may believe that high turnout will benefit President Joko Widodo – but the draconian threat will harm Widodo’s image more than it helps (Page 2). The next presidential debate on 30 March will likely feature discussion of Widodo’s proposal to place active military officers in civilian bureaucratic posts (Page 2). Vice‑presidential nominee Sandiaga Uno promised fisheries operators that he and Prabowo Subianto would overturn a ban on dragnet trawling (p. 4). Constitutional Court justices will prioritize the resolution of legislative election disputes (p. 5).
Surveys: With less than three weeks remaining until the 17 April election day, two more new polls show the lead for President Joko Widodo remains intact. A poll by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) took place from 15-22 March; it shows Widodo ahead by 18 percentage points, with 15 percent undecided. Similarly, a poll by Charta Politik showed Widodo leading by 19 points; it also implies that Islamic and Islamic‑oriented parties will shrink by a third on aggregate. Both polls indicate that the reform‑minded Solidarity Party (PSI) is unlikely to pass the four‑percent threshold required to occupy parliamentary seats; incumbent parties at risk of falling short are Hanura, the National Mandate Party (Pan) and the United Development Party (PPP) (p. 6).
Justice: Investigators from the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) made arrests in cases involving the state enterprises PT Krakatau Steel Tbk and PT Pupuk (p. 10).
Jakarta: Policymakers finally decided upon a reasonable tariff for the new Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) – Rp10,000 per 10 kilometers, with a maximum fare of Rp14,000 (p. 11).
Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.
Delivered electronically every Friday, Reformasi Weekly is written by Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.
Reformasi Weekly is a product of PT Reformasi Info Sastra.
Economics: Plans to relocate a sizeable Chinese textile plant in Central Java send a positive signal about manufacturing – but whether central‑government policies will be adequately supportive remains to be seen (p. 12).
Outlook: Plentiful poll data shows that Widodo has a comfortable margin of 55‑60 percent, with few factors likely to alter circumstances in the final three weeks. But his opponent is brazen and risks therefore exist. Widodo winning by only a very narrow margin is a scenario with a low probability – but a high potential impact. Prabowo has a penchant for protesting angrily, hard‑line supporters can inundate Jakarta and the Constitutional Court has a protracted schedule for resolving disputes (its deadline is 8 August) (p. 14).
The US-China trade dispute simmers on. Regardless of the outcome of talks between the two largest economies on earth, the damage to the existing world manufacturing trading order has already been done. China plus one is no longer a preferential industrial location strategy for multinational companies, it is an imperative. Like Brexit, companies are beginning to relocate out of China even before the dispute is either settled or escalated. Profits can’t wait for governments to behave sensibly.
But where to go? Indonesia and Vietnam are the most obvious potential beneficiaries of the fallout from the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. There are a number of alternatives but Indonesia and Vietnam both have large, youthful working populations (and really here we are talking about the accessible workforces on Java and in Vietnam) and both are located within easy reach of the existing Asian supply chain. But are both equally ready and equally keen to pick up the China baton? Vietnam is the obvious winner in this contest. Unfortunately, for institutional equity investors the market isn’t included in Asia-Pacific or emerging market benchmarks.
The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.
On Friday, March 15th, an estimated 1.6 million students in over 120 countries (source: Time magazine) walked out of classrooms and took to streets demanding radical climate action. Climate change activism rarely grabbed headlines or wider public attention as it is doing now. Rising climate activism will continue to train the spotlight on industries/businesses associated with carbon-emission making it increasingly difficult for them to expand capacities or secure funding. Large institutional investors – sovereign funds, pension funds, insurance companies – have begun toincorporate climate risk into investment policy and are limiting exposure to sectors that directly contribute to carbon emissions – primarily coal, crude oil producers and power plants based on them. Expect sector devaluation; active investors may well look beyond juicy near term earnings and dividend yield.
Even as scientists and meteorological organisations keep warning of dire consequences unless concrete action is taken to limit carbon emissions to stall climate change, political establishment/regulators in most countries are in denial while others are doing little more than lip service. If so, should corporates care? even though businesses are the ones that play a direct role in escalating carbon emissions. With rising consumer awareness and activism, several industries associated with carbon emissions are already facing operational and funding challenges; we believe, it pays for all businesses to be above par on ‘climate action’ – it would be in their own self-interest, not just general good. And do Investors bother?Under the aegis of Climate Action 100+, an investor initiative with 320 signatories having more than USD33 trillion in assets collectively under management, they have been engaging companies on improving governance, curbing emissions and strengthening climate-related financial disclosures. It has listed out Oil & Gas, Mining, Utilities and Auto manufacturers as target sectors. Investors have already been making an impact – by vote or exit. It sure makes logical sense to effect positive change and minimise climate risk when you have a long term investment horizon.
In the detailed note below we
discuss how rising consumer/investor activism and/or political/regulatory changes are posing challenges to key sectors –Coal, Oil & Gas, Automobiles/Aviation, Consumer goods – that are associated with carbon emissions.
analyse how rising climate activism is negatively impacting growth prospects and valuation of companies in these sectors.
highlight the opportunities for businesses to capitalise on changing consumer preferences for products that minimise carbon footprint and differentiate themselves by being on the right side of climate action.
present a quick primer on climate change and lay down the key facts and data on climate change as presented by World Meteorological Organisation, NASA and IPCC.
However, the report does NOT discuss potential risks to businesses from the aftermath of Climate change. Unlike our recently released report Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Bewarethat looked into sector’s environmental violations and attempted to estimate potential earnings/growth/valuation downside as leading textile players adopt sustainable practices, we believe the impact of unpredictable climate change poses a threat that is not easy to identify or quantify.
Energy Transfer LP (ET US) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) have signed a Project Framework Agreement to further develop a large-scale LNG export facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana and move toward a potential final investment decision (FID). They have started actively engaging with LNG Engineering, Procurement and Contracting (EPC) companies with a plan to issue an Invitation to Tender (ITT) in the weeks ahead. We look at the potential contract size and winners and also the other US LNG projects that could be negatively impacted. More detail on the LNG project queue for this year in: A Huge Wave of New LNG Projects Coming in the Next 18 Months: Positive for The E&C Companies.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
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INDO Snippets brings together substantive and significant on the ground chatter that may potentially have a meaningful impact on the Indonesian Equity Market.
Today on INDO Snippets:
The second presidential debate was held last Sunday in Jakarta. Key moments are discussed below.
Today, the shares go ex-rights for shareholders looking to both vote on March 26th and, assuming the vote goes through, to elect to receive cash of IDR 9,590 instead of continuing to hold shares. BDMN shares are trading down, as expected.
During recent earnings calls memory chip makers have postulated that the market will return to higher margins once price elasticity causes demand to increase. This popular myth needs to be treated with great skepticism since, as this Insight will reveal, short-term price elasticity has a negligible impact upon memory chip sales if it has any impact at all.
Airport connectivity in Indonesia has reached a milestone last year when they announced the airport express but has there been any improvements in the service and load factor? The management company, Railink, definitely tries its best to upkeep their service level and increase awareness. Indonesian usage of internet through smartphones also tells about how important smartphones as a center of their daily life.
Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) has gone creative when it comes to increase their online and offline presence; not only having an app that is comparable to Grab and Uber but also creating a dedicated taxi waiting area in a mall. Is Go-jek only a ride hailing app? My experience on Go-send tells otherwise.
How about the upcoming Presidential election? What will happen in a rematch between Jokowi vs Prabowo? Does Prabowo really have no economic policy? His answer when asked on what sort of supportive policies to help Unicorns grow shed some light on his understandings and knowledge on economic policy.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
This week’s offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarmais filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.
In Part 5 of a Smartkarma Originals series, Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow – Part 5 – Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Jessica Irenelooks in detail at this leading township developer. The company has over 40 years of track record and a combined development area of over 2,700ha. The company benefits from its exposure to the popular Serpong district, but an over-expansion, coupled with tightening property regulations caused its balance sheet to suffer in the following years. Earnings have declined by -19% Cagr over the past five years as a consequence of lower margins and burgeoning debt levels. The company has plans to divest its retail mall division, which can serve as a positive catalyst in the near term. Improving sentiment and better interest rate environment, as well as positive regulatory tailwinds, should be a driver to SMRA’s share price this year. We see a 44% upside to our target price of IDR1,408 per share.
In Singapore Real Deals (Issue 5): The Largest Condominium in Singapore, Anni Kum presents a fortnightly property digest that takes you through the peculiarities of Singapore’s real estate market. In this issue, she looks at the launch of Treasure at Tampines in District 18, the largest condominium in Singapore to-date. (Official launch last weekend).
In this series under Smartkarma Originals, CrossASEAN insight providers AngusMackintosh and Jessica Irene seek to determine whether or not we are close to the end of the rainbow and to a period of outperformance for the property sector. Our end conclusions will be based on a series of company visits to the major listed property companies in Indonesia, conversations with local banks, property agents, and other relevant channel checks.
The fifth company that we explore is Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ), a township developer with over 40 years of track record and a combined development area of over 2,700ha. The company benefits from its exposure to the popular Serpong district, but an over expansion, coupled with tightening property regulations caused its balance sheet to suffer in the following years. Earnings have declined by -19% Cagr over the past five years as a consequence of lower margins and burgeoning debt levels.
The company has plans to divest its retail mall division, which can serve as a positive catalyst in the near term. Improving sentiment and better interest rate environment, as well as positive regulatory tailwinds should be a driver to SMRA’s share price this year. We see a 44% upside to our target price of IDR1,408 per share.
Summary of this insight:
The success of SMRA’s first township, Kelapa Gading, paved way for the next six township development. The same township model is replicated to its Serpong, Bekasi, Bandung, Karawang, Makassar, and soon Bogor.
During the height of the property boom, every cluster launch in the Serpong area is 2-3x oversubscribed. Buyers were a mix of speculators and end-users, and both were happy customers benefiting from over 400% land price appreciation over the course of 2009-2013. Land ASP in 2009 was just below IDR3mn versus IDR12-15mn in 2013.
Driven by the positive momentum of the property boom, SMRA ambitiously launched three new townships at the trough of the property market (2015-2018), growing its total township development area by more than a third. Poor cashflow management, stemming from the over-expansion during the property downturn took a massive toll on the balance sheet. SMRA turned from net cash in 2013 to holding IDR8.6tn of debt in 9M18 (1.2x gearing) with interest costs making up a chunky 49% of EBIT.
We have also seen a massive shift to the end-user market since 2014, as the company started to sell more smaller houses and affordable apartments rather than land lots and shophouses. At the peak, shophouses and land lots made up more than 50% of the company’s development revenues. As of 9M18, that number has declined to a mere 7% of revenues, while 93% comes from houses and apartments. Housing units launched in 2016-2017 are 36% cheaper than units launched in 2011-2014, as the company downsized in the area.
SMRA has the second biggest retail mall portfolio in our coverage after Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) with 258,000sqm net leasable area (NLA). The three malls generate about IDR1.3tn revenue per year, returning 42% EBITDA margin. About 40% of tenants in Bekasi and Serpong are up for a rental renewal in the next three years, and this could serve as a potential upside on the average rental rates.
Pros: Bank Indonesia (BI)’s move to loosen mortgage regulations last year, and plans to reduce luxury taxes and allow for friendlier foreign ownership scheme should give a breath of fresh air over the medium term. SMRA targets 18% presales growth in 2019, but they have been missing their presales target by an average of 22% over the past three years. We expect a more modest 5% presales recovery this year.
Pros: Margin on houses show a massive improvement from 51% in 2014 to 59% in 9M18. The improvement brings up the consolidated property development margin by 600bps YoY. As a segment, this is the first margin uptick since 2014, leading to 44% YoY EBIT growth and 115% YoY NPAT growth in 9M18.
Cons: The stellar property development growth, however, is diluted by the poor performances from the investment property division that recorded 14% YoY EBIT decline. Despite some improvements on the gross margin level and healthy topline growth, opex has doubled YoY, leading to 700bps reduction in the EBITDA margin.
Recommendation & catalyst: SMRA has underperformed the JCI by a steep 71% over the past 36 months as earnings and presales continue to disappoint. Discount to NAV, PE, and PB valuation are standing at -1 standard deviation below mean. Improving risk appetite for high beta stocks, better interest rate environment, accomodative policies from the government, and potential pick up of activity after the election are a few of the key catalysts for the stock and sector re-rating. The divestment of its retail arm should also help to clear some debt off the balance sheet and unlock value. We have a BUY recommendation.
The presidential race is unchanged as data from a premier polling firm, SMRC, shows a 26 percentage point lead for Widodo. Thus far only one poll has shown a narrow lead — 12 percent, according to Kompas — but until other data corroborates this, it appears to be an outlier that does not change the outlook. Widodo is heavily touting the MRT opening, but provincial leaders are struggling to set a tariff rate — it will therefore still be free when it opens for public use on 25 March. The Religion Ministry appointments-graft scandal threatens to implicate the minister. Trade acrimony with the EU is escalating. West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, a 2024 presidential contender, garnered negative publicity for appointing relatives. Legislators and stakeholders are clamoring for government progress on a draft Bill on Personal Data Protection.
Politics: Eager to maximize advantages from the imminent commercial start of Jakarta’s Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) line, President Joko Widodo claimed credit for having made a “political decision” to take on the project’s cost. In fact, the magnitude of those costs to the province remains unclear: three days from the start of operations, policymakers have yet to set the tariff for riders (Page 2). The corruption scandal enveloping the Islamic United Development Party (PPP) – at the worst possible time in the election cycle – could further depress the clout of Islamic interests in the next parliament (p. 3). West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil invited criticism by appointing two relatives to a high-profile Development Acceleration Team (TAP) under his aegis (p. 4).
Surveys: The large lead for President Joko Widodo appears intact, based on findings from three recent polls, although one reputable agency produced divergent results. Widodo has a lead of at least 19 percentage points according to three surveys in late February and March: in addition to the Survey Network (LSI) and Alvara Research (discussed in recent Ref Wkly editions), new data has emerged from Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) placing Widodo’s margin over Prabowo at 26 percentage points. A poll conducted simultaneously by Kompas measured the lead at only 12 percentage points – but until other polling corroborates this, it constitutes an outlier that lacks significance. In any event, even if Widodo’s lead has shrunk as much as Kompas claims, he would still enjoy a comfortable cushion (p. 4).
Justice: Religion Minister Lukman Saefuddin is under scrutiny after investigators discovered Rp600 million in cash in his office desk drawer. Meanwhile, former PPP Chair Romahurmuziy failed to appear for questioning as a suspect (p. 7).
Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi. For subscription info please contact: <[email protected]>.
Policy News: Public officials clamored for a long-awaited Bill on Protecting Personal Data (RUU PDP) (p. 8). Energy Minister Ignatius Jonan welcomed a parliamentary suggestion to subsidize the higher-octane petroleum product Pertamax, rather than Premium – but he remained noncommittal about implementation (p. 9).
Infrastructure: Jakarta’s governor rejected suggestions from provincial legislators that the MRT should be free, or at least free for Jakarta residents (p. 10).
International: Policymakers denounced the European Union (EU) for allegedly discriminating against biodiesel from crude palm oil (CPO). The planned Comprehensive Partnership Agreement with Europe (IEU‑Cepa) could be at risk (p. 11).
The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth.
The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum.
Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low.
US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support for the USD, and further support safe havens like gold.
Canadian real long term yields have fallen more abruptly than in the USA, into negative territory, suggesting the outlook for the Canadian economy has deteriorated more than most. This may relate to concern over a peaking in the Canadian housing market. The fall in real yields suggests further downside risk for the CAD.
Long term inflation breakevens have fallen in Australia sharply since September last year to now well below the RBA’s 2.5% inflation target.
Australian leading indicators of the labour market have turned lower, albeit from solid levels, and may be enough, combined with broader evidence of weaker growth, for the RBA to announce an easing bias as soon as April.
Asian trade data and flash PMI data for major countries point to ongoing and significant weakness in global trade.
US: Fed Sees Tailwinds from Global Growth Shifting to Headwinds from China and Europe.
Greece: Growth supported by ‘Golden Visa’ (5-year visa for investing 250,000 Euro) and strong tourism arrivals. 2.3% GDP in 2020.
Thailand: Sunday election between Shinawatra-linked Pheu Thai Party and military backed Palang Pracharat Party. Too close to call.
Brazil: Former Brazilian President Michel Temer has been arrested in São Paulo as part of the Car Wash corruption investigation. Brazil stocks fell on the news.
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The US-China trade dispute simmers on. Regardless of the outcome of talks between the two largest economies on earth, the damage to the existing world manufacturing trading order has already been done. China plus one is no longer a preferential industrial location strategy for multinational companies, it is an imperative. Like Brexit, companies are beginning to relocate out of China even before the dispute is either settled or escalated. Profits can’t wait for governments to behave sensibly.
But where to go? Indonesia and Vietnam are the most obvious potential beneficiaries of the fallout from the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. There are a number of alternatives but Indonesia and Vietnam both have large, youthful working populations (and really here we are talking about the accessible workforces on Java and in Vietnam) and both are located within easy reach of the existing Asian supply chain. But are both equally ready and equally keen to pick up the China baton? Vietnam is the obvious winner in this contest. Unfortunately, for institutional equity investors the market isn’t included in Asia-Pacific or emerging market benchmarks.
The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.
On Friday, March 15th, an estimated 1.6 million students in over 120 countries (source: Time magazine) walked out of classrooms and took to streets demanding radical climate action. Climate change activism rarely grabbed headlines or wider public attention as it is doing now. Rising climate activism will continue to train the spotlight on industries/businesses associated with carbon-emission making it increasingly difficult for them to expand capacities or secure funding. Large institutional investors – sovereign funds, pension funds, insurance companies – have begun toincorporate climate risk into investment policy and are limiting exposure to sectors that directly contribute to carbon emissions – primarily coal, crude oil producers and power plants based on them. Expect sector devaluation; active investors may well look beyond juicy near term earnings and dividend yield.
Even as scientists and meteorological organisations keep warning of dire consequences unless concrete action is taken to limit carbon emissions to stall climate change, political establishment/regulators in most countries are in denial while others are doing little more than lip service. If so, should corporates care? even though businesses are the ones that play a direct role in escalating carbon emissions. With rising consumer awareness and activism, several industries associated with carbon emissions are already facing operational and funding challenges; we believe, it pays for all businesses to be above par on ‘climate action’ – it would be in their own self-interest, not just general good. And do Investors bother?Under the aegis of Climate Action 100+, an investor initiative with 320 signatories having more than USD33 trillion in assets collectively under management, they have been engaging companies on improving governance, curbing emissions and strengthening climate-related financial disclosures. It has listed out Oil & Gas, Mining, Utilities and Auto manufacturers as target sectors. Investors have already been making an impact – by vote or exit. It sure makes logical sense to effect positive change and minimise climate risk when you have a long term investment horizon.
In the detailed note below we
discuss how rising consumer/investor activism and/or political/regulatory changes are posing challenges to key sectors –Coal, Oil & Gas, Automobiles/Aviation, Consumer goods – that are associated with carbon emissions.
analyse how rising climate activism is negatively impacting growth prospects and valuation of companies in these sectors.
highlight the opportunities for businesses to capitalise on changing consumer preferences for products that minimise carbon footprint and differentiate themselves by being on the right side of climate action.
present a quick primer on climate change and lay down the key facts and data on climate change as presented by World Meteorological Organisation, NASA and IPCC.
However, the report does NOT discuss potential risks to businesses from the aftermath of Climate change. Unlike our recently released report Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Bewarethat looked into sector’s environmental violations and attempted to estimate potential earnings/growth/valuation downside as leading textile players adopt sustainable practices, we believe the impact of unpredictable climate change poses a threat that is not easy to identify or quantify.
Energy Transfer LP (ET US) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) have signed a Project Framework Agreement to further develop a large-scale LNG export facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana and move toward a potential final investment decision (FID). They have started actively engaging with LNG Engineering, Procurement and Contracting (EPC) companies with a plan to issue an Invitation to Tender (ITT) in the weeks ahead. We look at the potential contract size and winners and also the other US LNG projects that could be negatively impacted. More detail on the LNG project queue for this year in: A Huge Wave of New LNG Projects Coming in the Next 18 Months: Positive for The E&C Companies.
Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) (LHI) plans to raise up to US$400m in its Malaysian IPO. LHI is one of the largest integrated poultry producer in Southeast Asia.
LHI was listed on Bursa Malaysia from 1990 to 2012. Since delisting, it has consolidated its Southeast Asia operations under a single entity and is now looking to relist the larger entity.
While revenue has been growing steadily, margins have been volatile. In addition, its difficult to pinpoint which products are performing well in which geographies. The feedmills business seems to be a more consistent performer as compared to the livestock business. It’s also a larger revenue contributor in the faster growing regions.
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The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.
On Friday, March 15th, an estimated 1.6 million students in over 120 countries (source: Time magazine) walked out of classrooms and took to streets demanding radical climate action. Climate change activism rarely grabbed headlines or wider public attention as it is doing now. Rising climate activism will continue to train the spotlight on industries/businesses associated with carbon-emission making it increasingly difficult for them to expand capacities or secure funding. Large institutional investors – sovereign funds, pension funds, insurance companies – have begun toincorporate climate risk into investment policy and are limiting exposure to sectors that directly contribute to carbon emissions – primarily coal, crude oil producers and power plants based on them. Expect sector devaluation; active investors may well look beyond juicy near term earnings and dividend yield.
Even as scientists and meteorological organisations keep warning of dire consequences unless concrete action is taken to limit carbon emissions to stall climate change, political establishment/regulators in most countries are in denial while others are doing little more than lip service. If so, should corporates care? even though businesses are the ones that play a direct role in escalating carbon emissions. With rising consumer awareness and activism, several industries associated with carbon emissions are already facing operational and funding challenges; we believe, it pays for all businesses to be above par on ‘climate action’ – it would be in their own self-interest, not just general good. And do Investors bother?Under the aegis of Climate Action 100+, an investor initiative with 320 signatories having more than USD33 trillion in assets collectively under management, they have been engaging companies on improving governance, curbing emissions and strengthening climate-related financial disclosures. It has listed out Oil & Gas, Mining, Utilities and Auto manufacturers as target sectors. Investors have already been making an impact – by vote or exit. It sure makes logical sense to effect positive change and minimise climate risk when you have a long term investment horizon.
In the detailed note below we
discuss how rising consumer/investor activism and/or political/regulatory changes are posing challenges to key sectors –Coal, Oil & Gas, Automobiles/Aviation, Consumer goods – that are associated with carbon emissions.
analyse how rising climate activism is negatively impacting growth prospects and valuation of companies in these sectors.
highlight the opportunities for businesses to capitalise on changing consumer preferences for products that minimise carbon footprint and differentiate themselves by being on the right side of climate action.
present a quick primer on climate change and lay down the key facts and data on climate change as presented by World Meteorological Organisation, NASA and IPCC.
However, the report does NOT discuss potential risks to businesses from the aftermath of Climate change. Unlike our recently released report Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Bewarethat looked into sector’s environmental violations and attempted to estimate potential earnings/growth/valuation downside as leading textile players adopt sustainable practices, we believe the impact of unpredictable climate change poses a threat that is not easy to identify or quantify.
Energy Transfer LP (ET US) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) have signed a Project Framework Agreement to further develop a large-scale LNG export facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana and move toward a potential final investment decision (FID). They have started actively engaging with LNG Engineering, Procurement and Contracting (EPC) companies with a plan to issue an Invitation to Tender (ITT) in the weeks ahead. We look at the potential contract size and winners and also the other US LNG projects that could be negatively impacted. More detail on the LNG project queue for this year in: A Huge Wave of New LNG Projects Coming in the Next 18 Months: Positive for The E&C Companies.
Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) (LHI) plans to raise up to US$400m in its Malaysian IPO. LHI is one of the largest integrated poultry producer in Southeast Asia.
LHI was listed on Bursa Malaysia from 1990 to 2012. Since delisting, it has consolidated its Southeast Asia operations under a single entity and is now looking to relist the larger entity.
While revenue has been growing steadily, margins have been volatile. In addition, its difficult to pinpoint which products are performing well in which geographies. The feedmills business seems to be a more consistent performer as compared to the livestock business. It’s also a larger revenue contributor in the faster growing regions.
This week’s offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarmais filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.
In Part 5 of a Smartkarma Originals series, Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow – Part 5 – Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Jessica Irenelooks in detail at this leading township developer. The company has over 40 years of track record and a combined development area of over 2,700ha. The company benefits from its exposure to the popular Serpong district, but an over-expansion, coupled with tightening property regulations caused its balance sheet to suffer in the following years. Earnings have declined by -19% Cagr over the past five years as a consequence of lower margins and burgeoning debt levels. The company has plans to divest its retail mall division, which can serve as a positive catalyst in the near term. Improving sentiment and better interest rate environment, as well as positive regulatory tailwinds, should be a driver to SMRA’s share price this year. We see a 44% upside to our target price of IDR1,408 per share.
In Singapore Real Deals (Issue 5): The Largest Condominium in Singapore, Anni Kum presents a fortnightly property digest that takes you through the peculiarities of Singapore’s real estate market. In this issue, she looks at the launch of Treasure at Tampines in District 18, the largest condominium in Singapore to-date. (Official launch last weekend).
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Today, the shares go ex-rights for shareholders looking to both vote on March 26th and, assuming the vote goes through, to elect to receive cash of IDR 9,590 instead of continuing to hold shares. BDMN shares are trading down, as expected.
During recent earnings calls memory chip makers have postulated that the market will return to higher margins once price elasticity causes demand to increase. This popular myth needs to be treated with great skepticism since, as this Insight will reveal, short-term price elasticity has a negligible impact upon memory chip sales if it has any impact at all.
Airport connectivity in Indonesia has reached a milestone last year when they announced the airport express but has there been any improvements in the service and load factor? The management company, Railink, definitely tries its best to upkeep their service level and increase awareness. Indonesian usage of internet through smartphones also tells about how important smartphones as a center of their daily life.
Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) has gone creative when it comes to increase their online and offline presence; not only having an app that is comparable to Grab and Uber but also creating a dedicated taxi waiting area in a mall. Is Go-jek only a ride hailing app? My experience on Go-send tells otherwise.
How about the upcoming Presidential election? What will happen in a rematch between Jokowi vs Prabowo? Does Prabowo really have no economic policy? His answer when asked on what sort of supportive policies to help Unicorns grow shed some light on his understandings and knowledge on economic policy.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
During recent earnings calls memory chip makers have postulated that the market will return to higher margins once price elasticity causes demand to increase. This popular myth needs to be treated with great skepticism since, as this Insight will reveal, short-term price elasticity has a negligible impact upon memory chip sales if it has any impact at all.
Airport connectivity in Indonesia has reached a milestone last year when they announced the airport express but has there been any improvements in the service and load factor? The management company, Railink, definitely tries its best to upkeep their service level and increase awareness. Indonesian usage of internet through smartphones also tells about how important smartphones as a center of their daily life.
Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) has gone creative when it comes to increase their online and offline presence; not only having an app that is comparable to Grab and Uber but also creating a dedicated taxi waiting area in a mall. Is Go-jek only a ride hailing app? My experience on Go-send tells otherwise.
How about the upcoming Presidential election? What will happen in a rematch between Jokowi vs Prabowo? Does Prabowo really have no economic policy? His answer when asked on what sort of supportive policies to help Unicorns grow shed some light on his understandings and knowledge on economic policy.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
During recent earnings calls memory chip makers have postulated that the market will return to higher margins once price elasticity causes demand to increase. This popular myth needs to be treated with great skepticism since, as this Insight will reveal, short-term price elasticity has a negligible impact upon memory chip sales if it has any impact at all.
Airport connectivity in Indonesia has reached a milestone last year when they announced the airport express but has there been any improvements in the service and load factor? The management company, Railink, definitely tries its best to upkeep their service level and increase awareness. Indonesian usage of internet through smartphones also tells about how important smartphones as a center of their daily life.
Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) has gone creative when it comes to increase their online and offline presence; not only having an app that is comparable to Grab and Uber but also creating a dedicated taxi waiting area in a mall. Is Go-jek only a ride hailing app? My experience on Go-send tells otherwise.
How about the upcoming Presidential election? What will happen in a rematch between Jokowi vs Prabowo? Does Prabowo really have no economic policy? His answer when asked on what sort of supportive policies to help Unicorns grow shed some light on his understandings and knowledge on economic policy.
Volatility set to rise as Thailand, Indonesia and India all Face ElectionsRussia: Michael Calvey, a US citizen and one of Russia’s most prominent foreign investors, has been detained.
Indonesia: Incumbent President and his challenger from the military are trying to outdo each other in spending largesse targeting rural poor ahead of the May election.
South Africa: Recent inflation readings have been the lowest in a long time on lower fuel expenses. Expected to stay low.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
