Indonesia

• A recent conversation with Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) which operates Alfamart and AlfaMidi mini-markets in Indonesia further cemented a positive view on the outlook for the company.
• The company should easily surpass its target for 1,000 new stores this year, with increasing basket sizes and fee-based income and some new features such as BeanStop potentially improving returns. 
• Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains a core retail holding with an increasing investor following after MSCI inclusion. Valuations remain attractive versus history and ROE at 25% is higher than pre-COVID levels.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Pakuwon Jati
2. Softbank Group
3. Lenovo
4. China SCE
5. Kwg Property Holding

and more…

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Central China Securities
• Pakuwon Jati

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Bharti Airtel
• Guangzhou R&F Properties
• Indika Energy

• Bukalapak‘s recent 1Q2022 results provided further evidence that the company is moving along the road to profitability with growth in TPV being outpaced significantly by revenue growth.
• The company saw very significant improvements in take-rates for its marketplace and Mitra businesses plus a better contribution margin and we expect this to continue into the 3Q.
• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) looks cheap, especially when considering its stake in Allo Bank Indonesia and its IDR20tn cash pile, which means you are paying only US$50m for its core businesses.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adaro Minerals
• China Hongqiao
• Gajah Tunggal
• Sino-Ocean Service

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Pan Brothers
• Sino-Ocean Service
• Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Evergrande
• China Vanke
• Indika Energy
• Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
• China Datang Corp Renewable Power

• BFI Finance Indonesia continued to see rapid momentum behind its recovery with new bookings in 2Q2022 hitting all time highs and spreads improving to 13.5% with NPFs declining.
• The company’s growth is driven by the non-dealer used vehicle market with new bookings coming mainly through agents and repeat customers, and digital initiatives in place to improve origination.
• BFIN is the best quality multifinance player in Indonesia, with an ROE now above 21%. There will be more collaboration and synergies with Bank Jago going forward further driving growth.

• Unilever Indonesia booked a strong rebound in 1H2022 profits despite rising commodity prices with aggressive cost savings and an improving product mix. 
• The company suffered during the pandemic given that personal care does have a discretionary element but that is now being reversed with great mobility and reflected in new product launches. 
• Unilever Indonesia has the potential for a re-rating as growth momentum returns, helped by a new management team. Valuations are still well-below its 5-year average of 40x forward PER.

• Bank Central Asia booked an encouraging set of results in 1H2022, with especially strong growth in 2Q2022 for corporate loans and especially working capital loans as mobility returns.
• Transactions grew by +40% YoY driven by mobile banking and increased customer numbers, which also helped to drive CASA up by +17% YoY supporting its low cost of funds. 
• Bank Central Asia‘s leading position in transactional banking continues to be cemented by its digital capabilities and the bank looks interesting in valuation terms from a historical basis. 

• Bank Jago recently released its 2Q2022 results. It again registered a quarterly profit, down on 1Q2021, and a victim of its own success but preparing well for future growth.
• The bank continues to grow its KYC’d customers, which reached 3.3m in 2Q2022, with 300k-400k new customers a month as a result of improvements in the onboarding process. 
• Bank Jago‘s future is all about its ecosystem and it has only started to scratch the surface of synergies but investors need to look to the long term for returns.

• Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) reports another positive set of results confirming the success of its ongoing transformation with the promise of an even stronger quarter ahead.
• Footwear and menswear continued to lead but womenswear, cosmetics, and babywear were also strong, with private labels Nevada Sports, Nevada Denim, Coles, and New Connections booking vibrant sales.
• Matahari Department Stores omnichannel initiatives are bearing fruit with another marketplace soon to come on stream whilst store opening and renovations will accelerate 2H2022, helping to drive growth.

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.