Indonesia

• Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) remains one of the most interesting and dynamic staple players in Indonesia, with a leading position in yoghurt and growing strength in consumer foods. 
• CMRY continues to achieve strong top-line growth of +21% in 1H2023, with consumer foods driving growth and 50% of sales but we expect dairy to see better performance in 2H2023. 
• Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) continues to invest in marketing through digital channels, including TikTok. Valuations remain attractive relative to its growth prospects, with more than 20% 3-year EPS CAGR.

• Cinema XXI raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing at the bottom-end.
• Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Lippo Karawaci’s (LPKR) H1/23 results were much better than expected, and showed that the company was on track to achieve its turnaround goals. All business segments performed well, with healthcare again the largest contributor to revenue and earnings. Still, we note positively that the real estate segment’s performance was in line with guidance amid a challenging operating environment, with high and rising interest rates. Conversely, the financial risk profile remains weak, with elevated leverage ratios and thin fixed charge cover. Liquidity is barely adequate.

The healthcare segment continues to be LPKR’s key pillar, accounting for two-thirds of revenue and boasting strong (and improved) EBITDA. Moreover, we note that the segment should be relatively immune to the volatility in the economy.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Country Garden Holdings Co
• Pan Brothers
• Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT
• Sino-Ocean Service
• UPL Ltd

• Astra International (ASII IJ) released a solid set of numbers in 1H2023, with growth across most of its divisions from autos to heavy equipment, and infrastructure.
• 1H2023 was marked by a series of acquisitions across growth areas of the Indonesian economy including nickel, digital health, data centres, and classifieds.
• Astra International remains our top proxy pick for exposure to Indonesia, with recent acquisitions making the company all the relevant in new areas of growth.

• BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) booked a solid set of 1H2023 results that were marred by an operational blip, with 2Q2023 impacted but this is likely to abate in 2H2023.
• The company continues to stand out for its leading position in collateralized lending backed by 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, shophouses and property, with an accomplished 15-year track record
• BFI Finance Indonesia remains the top pick to play the increasing growth from multi-finance in Indonesia. It trades on 2x FY2023E PBV, forecast to book an ROE over 20%.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. 21Vianet Group
2. SK Hynix
3. Yuexiu Property
4. Nameson Holdings
5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…

• Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) delivered a steady Q2 2023 with revenues up 16.6% YoY and profits up 32% YoY, aided by revenue growth on alcoholic beverages of 20% YoY. 
• EBITDA margins expanded to 50% in Q2 2023 from 45% in Q1 2023 but remained flat YoY. We expect margins to continue expanding in subsequent quarters as revenues grow seasonally.
• Trading at 15.8x/13x FY23e/24e PE, with a 6.3%/7.7% dividend yield, we believe this is an excellent play on tourism recovery in Indonesia. 

• AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp up of sakes at JIIPE.
• JIIPE will become a more important contributor for AKR Corporindo, as it builds a critical mass of EV-battery-related tenants plus it benefits from increasing demand from smelters for chemicals
• AKR Corporindo remains a core industrial holding in Indonesia, through both its petroleum and chemicals business plus its industrial estate, which is a multi-year growth story. Valuations remain attractive. 

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Agung Podomoro Land

• Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
• There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 
• There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.

• Erajaya recently released its 1Q2023 results with net sales increasing by +29% YoY but with -20.5% decrease in net profit due to increased opex related to its expansion and inventory build.
• The company plans to add 400 new outlets this year, lower than last year’s 575, as it ramps up its newer stores, which should help to improve profitability in 2H2023.
• Erajaya continues to add to its stable of brands outside mobile handsets, including JD Sports, Wellings, Grand Lucky, The Face Shop, Paris Baguette, and has launched EraBlue with Mobile World.

• Ace Hardware‘s June SSSG confirmed very strong growth momentum and the positive impact of its BOOM sale, with headline SSSG at +10.7% YoY, after a flat post-Lebaran performance in May.
• The company’s strategy of using influencers to promote the company has been a great success for its #Bisakejadian campaign, and BOOM sale with foot traffic continuing to improve at stores.
• Ace Hardware plans to step up its store expansion and ramp up new store formats to drive growth, with up to 15 new stores this year. Valuations are attractive.

• Indonesia-based agritech firm Eratani has secured US$2 million in a seed extension round from SBI Ven Capital, Genting Ventures, Orvel Ventures, and Ascend Angels.
• This deal brings the total seed funding to US$5.8 million.
• The new investment comes about half a year after Eratani raised US$3.8 million from TNB Aura, Trihill Capital, BIG Ventures, and AgFunder.

• Indonesia’s aquaculture company eFishery has raised US$200 million in its Series D funding round led by Abu Dhabi-based global fund manager 42XFund.
• Malaysian public sector pension fund, Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP), Switzerland-based asset manager responsAbility, 500 Global, Northstar, Temasek, and SoftBank also joined.
• The funds will be used to expand the eFishery farming community, targeting to engage over 1 million aquaculture ponds in Indonesia by 2025 and increasing the transactions of fish feed and fresh fish on the platform.

• Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked some strong SSSG for June bringing its YTD number into line with its FY2023 projections after post Lebaran adjustment in May. 
• The company will embark on a more aggressive store rollout for this year with plans for 2,100 new stores, including 200 Alfamidi stores and 500 Lawson convenience stores. 
• Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) continues to grow its membership program under AlfaGift with 16.3m members, which helps to gather valuable data and grow sales. Valuations are attractive.  

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Agung Podomoro Land
• Azure Power Global Ltd

• The recent announcement that Indonesia will allow foreign doctors to operate in Indonesia should benefit listed healthcare players with Siloam International Hospitals being a key beneficiary of the move.
• The company has come out of the pandemic stronger and more profitable with an ongoing focus on increasing the complexity of treatments and the efficiency of operations. 
• Siloam International Hospitals will continue to open 1-2 new hospitals each year but it only utilises 3,000 out of 7,000 bed capacity leaving room for organic growth. Valuations are attractive.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Central China Real Estate
2. Anton Oilfield
3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
4. Agung Podomoro Land
5. Hopson Development

and more…