Indonesia

• The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
• We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
• There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.

• Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) provides a well-rounded exposure to gold and copper, where it has significant expansion plans in place for both metals through developing new assets. 
• The company has exposure to the EV battery ecosystem through Merdeka Battery Materials, which has one of the world’s largest nickel deposits at its SCM mine, developed by Rio Tinto.
• Merdeka Battery Materials is developing multiple HPAL processing plants in partnership with leading battery material companies. Valuations for FY2025E and FY2026E look interesting as new projects start to kick in. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• Medco Energi
• Tata Motors ADR

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Biocon Ltd
2. Lippo Karawaci
3. Tata Motors Ltd
4. Softbank Group
5. Rakuten

and more…

• Astra International is well-positioned to fend off the challenge of incoming EV players to Indonesia, a country far more suited to Hybrid EVs, with little charging infrastructure.
• Despite new entrants, the company has maintained its market share at 57% YTD, with Chinese EV makers fighting amongst themselves and other Japanese ICE brands losing some share. 
• Astra continues to develop new HEV products, with a line up of 10 BEVs due by 2028 from Toyota but investments in the ecosystem are already underway. Valuations remain attractive.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lippo Karawaci

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in September 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Bharti Airtel
• Lippo Karawaci
• Softbank Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Medco Energi

• Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria. 
• The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.
• CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating. 

The Asia Trade Book for September 2024 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Vedanta Resources
2. Meituan
3. Yankuang Energy Group
4. Genting Bhd
5. Delhi International Airport Limited

and more…

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in August 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.

• Lippo Karawaci’s results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it reduced its Siloam stake and reduced its debt.
• Real estate marketing sales in 1H2024 made up 58% of FY2024 guidance, with affordable landed housing driving growth across multiple projects targeting first-time buyers utilising readily available mortgages.
• LPKR further reduced its holding in Siloam International Hospitals in September through the tender offer and will further reduce its debt with proceeds. LPKR is back on the investor radar.