Category

Indonesia

Daily Brief Indonesia: Criterium Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Sale of Bulu unlocks value and transforms the company’s balance sheet
  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Further improvements on Mont d’Or transaction terms


Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Sale of Bulu unlocks value and transforms the company’s balance sheet

By Auctus Advisors

  • • Criterium has signed a letter of intent to sell its 42.5% interest in Bulu for US$7.75 mm. • The company acquired the interest in Bulu for US$1.6 mm. • Criterium has previously announced a C$18.9 mm capital raise comprising a C$12.2 mm (~US$9 mm) convertible debt and C$6.7 mm (~US$4.5 mm) of new equity.

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Further improvements on Mont d’Or transaction terms

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The completion payment by Criterium on the closing of the Mont d’Or acquisition has been reduced by 60% to US$4.5 mm. • Only US$4.1 mm will now be repaid to Mont d’Or debt holders on completing the acquisition (US$9.6 mm previously) with US$0.5 mm being written down (US$4.3 mm previously). • On completion of the acquisition, Criterium is expected to hold US$25 mm of debt and US$8 mm in cash (including US$4.5 mm of new equity) resulting in US$17 mm in net debt (excluding US$3.0 mm of Mont d’Or residual debt to be converted into equity in 2025).

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Prodia, Bank Mandiri Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits
  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune


Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains Indonesia’s relatively undiscovered diagnostics leader, with a strong market position, long-term relationships with the medical community, and an increasingly digital edge through its MyProdia app. 
  • The compamy continues to experience a high-base effect from COVID but has seen a dramatic increase in tests per visit as patients become increasingly helath conscious. 
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) is significantly cheaper than its Indian comparables, trading on half the valuation, despite being a high-quality player tapping into a large increasingly health-conscious population.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stands out from its SOE peers in the progress it has made in digitising its business through the Livin’ mobile app and KOPRA for corporate customers.
  • The bank continues to outperform in terms of loan growth and risk management, which is reflected in a higher ROE and lower credit costs as LAR continue to decline.  
  • Bank Mandiri should see a strong finish to the year well within guidance, with a healthy outlook for 2024 given its healthy capital position and competitive cost base. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Kalbe Farma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – The End of a Long Transition


Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – The End of a Long Transition

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) continued to experience a high post-COVID base effect in 3Q2023, with consumer habits shifting to leisure versus health plus there was a softening of consumer demand.
  • The company also experienced higher raw material prices and higher operating expenses which depressed margins but expectations are for a recovery in margins in 4Q2023 and FY2024. 
  • Kalbe Farma stands out as Indonesia’s largest pharmaceutical company with strong exposure to consumer health and nutritional products with rising health consciousness amongst Indonesians. Valuations do not reflect impending recovery.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: XL Axiata and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Riding the Wave of Price Reparation and Convergence


XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Riding the Wave of Price Reparation and Convergence

By Angus Mackintosh

  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) continues to stand as the most direct way to play the data demand in Indonesia as well as being the most convergent of the listed telcos.
  • Although it saw some seasonal slowdown in 3Q, the solid growth trajectory remains intact for this year with the completion of the Link Net restructuring driving convergence growth.
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) raised data prices again in November and will continue to ride the wave of price reparation over the coming quarters in a more rational pricing environment. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) – A More Sustainable Cement Player


Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) – A More Sustainable Cement Player

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024. 
  • The company continues to grow its distribution reach to satisfy demand from IKN in Kalimantan, smelters in Sulawesi, and East Indonesia, with acquired Semen Grobogan feeding Central Java. 
  • Indocement (INTP IJ) continues to build on its sustainable credentials through the use of alternative fuels and reducing emissions and dust. Valauations are attractive trading on 6.8x FY2024E EV/EBITDA.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Plumbing for a More Certain Future


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Plumbing for a More Certain Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo senior management hosted an analyst call last week to provide further details on both the reasons behind the Tokopedia sale and the potential synergies and benefits of the move. 
  • After the deal completes, GoTo will cede all management control but will receive a revenue stream from core GTV, which excludes digital products and certain big-ticket items.
  • Plumbing for this deal effectively de-risks its exposure to e-commerce given it is not required to inject any new capital but it does take away future optionality on Tokpedia’s growth.  

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Rationalising the Lawson Buildout


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Rationalising the Lawson Buildout

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has decided to pare back the velocity of the expansion of Lawson convenience stores as it consolidates its leading position and maximises efficiencies.
  • 4Q2023 saw slower growth in November but December should be stronger, whilst its store expansion for 2023 reached 1,700 new stores, with plans for around 1,300 new stores in 2024.
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains the best way to play the minimarket space in Indonesia. 4Q 2023 numbers should provide a positive catalyst given it is the seasonally high quarter. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Indo Tambangraya Megah and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • ITMG IJ: A Healthy 15% Yield Despite the Coal Price Correction, With >50% Mkt Cap In Cash


ITMG IJ: A Healthy 15% Yield Despite the Coal Price Correction, With >50% Mkt Cap In Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Newcastle coal prices have normalized from the highs of USD 450/ton (in September 2022) to current levels of USD 145/ton (a 68% correction from the peak). 
  • From profits of 100 mn USD/month, we are now down to 90-100 mn USD/quarter. Despite this, the stock trades at 4.5x PE with a 15% dividend yield. 
  • An added buffer of 850 mn USD of net cash represents 50% of the market capitalization. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Ace Hardware Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Reinvigorated with Significant Upside


Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Reinvigorated with Significant Upside

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A meeting with Ace Hardware Indonesia revealed a newfound enthusiasm and confidence in the outlook for growth with new store formats and an omnichannel approach as key future drivers. 
  • The company will accelerate its store buildout in 2024 with plans for 20 new stores versus 13 in 2023 with new format stores taking the lead, with an emphasis ex-Java.
  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) will also accelerate the buildout of smaller-sized Ace Express stores with a pilot started this year.  Recent share price weakness looks unjustified.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, AKR Corporindo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Holistic Industrial Proxy


GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) announced on Monday a partnership with TikTok  which would combine former’s e-commerce biz Tokopedia with TikTok Shop Indonesia.
  • TikTok was forced to close its e-commerce services in Indonesia following regulations banning online shopping on social media platforms in September citing protection of smaller merchants and data privacy.
  • It seems TikTok will certainly be a winner if the deal is approved but surprised at GoTo’s move to retain a minority stake given e-commerce business is nearing profits.

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Holistic Industrial Proxy

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) recently hosted an analyst meeting where it provided some positive guidance for FY2024, with projections of double digit net profit growth with growth across all segments.
  • The core trading and distribution business is expected to see positive growth in 2024 with  the real kicker to come from its JIIPE industrial Estate plus recurrent income from utilities.
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) is an increasingly holistic play on Indonesia’s growth through its fuel and chemical distribution, which is being hosted by smelters and the EV battery complex.

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