Category

Indonesia

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Mandiri Persero, Alam Sutera Realty and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends
  • Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Citicore Renewable Energy


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

By Victor Galliano

  • Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia
  • Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled
  • Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Citicore Renewable Energy

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry – Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits


Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry – Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

By Ethan Aw

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2024.
  • Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, and processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Big on Aspirations


Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Big on Aspirations

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) remains a laggard amongst the top 4 banks in Indonesia in valuation terms, with improving returns leading to some upward re-rating. 
  • The bank continues to grow its high-quality corporate loans and consumer banking with a dramatic increase in its mobile banking users, which is helping to grow its low-cost CASA. 
  • BBNI remains an interesting proxy for Indonesia’s economy, with digital banking helping to drive returns. Valuations remain below peers but the bank is now approaching fair value.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: MGM China Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lippo Karawaci, MGM China Holdings


Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lippo Karawaci, MGM China Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Mandiri Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!


BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • BMRI is more profitable than BBNI, less cyclical than BBRI  and less expensive than BBCA. This combination makes it an attractive play on the Indonesia credit growth story.
  • BMRI’s FY23 results are a strong beat with industry-leading loan growth and strong ROE; BMRI also has the potential to aggressively grow its retail portfolio which still is likely under-appreciated
  • BMRI still trades at a discount to BBRI and has the potential to re-rate by another 20% in the near term, apart from the compounding driven by strong loan growth.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Mandiri Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. 
  • The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.
  • Bank Mandiri‘s guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Rakyat Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Pushing the Margins of Profitability


Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Pushing the Margins of Profitability

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s results reflected its ability to offset a tighter liquidity environment with a higher margin loan mix as it continues to shift to commercial Kupedes microloans. 
  • The bank has also seen the benefit of increasing digitalisation benefitting costs with more BRILink agents and users of mobile banking through BRIMO, which has also helped to grow CASA.
  • Guidance for 2024 remains positive on loan growth, NIMs,  increasing leverage, and rising loan yields, with stable credit quality. Valuations look attractive relative to a forecast ROE of above 20%. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: DayaTani Digital Indonesia PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • DayaTani harvests $2.3m seed money to digitalize agriculture


DayaTani harvests $2.3m seed money to digitalize agriculture

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-based agritech startup DayaTani has raised US$2.3 million in a seed funding round led by Ascent Venture Group with participation from KBI Investment, MDI Ventures, Northstar Ventures, BRI Ventures, and Gentree Fund.
  • Founded in 2023, DayaTani works to enhance yields for Indonesian farmers, operating research and development sites across the Java island that focus on horticulture and grain crops.
  • The company is developing hardware and software including data science models for more accurate recommendations, such as what fertilizer to use, based on real-world conditions.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Completing the Circle


GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Completing the Circle

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) has legally completed the transaction to sell 75% of Tokopedia to TikTok, paving the way for higher growth and improving profitability, without the need to subsidise growth. 
  • The company will continue to benefit from the new Tokopedia’s core GMV growth without having to provide funding, with the benefit of a larger total addressable market. 
  • GoTo has achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in 4Q2023 beating expectations but financials should improve further in 2024 although resources will be focused on growing on-demand services, and especially food delivery.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Ultrajaya Milk, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – The Milkmaid Cometh
  • BBNI IJ Initiation: On a Rewarding Journey to 20% ROE


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – The Milkmaid Cometh

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. 
  • The company’s margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. 
  • Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.

BBNI IJ Initiation: On a Rewarding Journey to 20% ROE

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, with ambition to join the other three big Indonesian Banks already doing it. 
  • Although the current results are not on par with the other three, the bank has outlined its strategy to reach the target (1% credit cost; 37% CIR by 2028 exit)
  • Projecting a gradual re-rating to align with peers by 2028 and extrapolating book value growth over the 5-year period provides a shareholder return of 30% CAGR

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