Indonesia

• Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. 
• Earlier, parent Heineken NV (HEIA NA)  had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.
• Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with >8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• CIFI Holdings
• Medco Energi

• Global Digital Niaga (BliBli) will issue new shares through a private placement to Djarum Group, underlining the strong support from its parent as it continues to expand its omnichannel business.
• The company is also close to completing a large-scale distribution centre in West Java to expand its logistics capacity and has also indicated expanding fintech exposure.
• BliBli saw sharp improvements in take rates and profitability in 1H2024 as it focused on improving product mix. Net profit profitability is expected in FY2025.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lippo Karawaci

• Requests for retraction in contracts by buyers 
• Oversupply of spot cargoes feeds pessimistic expectations

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Vedanta Resources
2. Longfor Properties
3. Anton Oilfield
4. Adani Green Energy
5. Reliance Industries

and more…

• • Production to date in October is 950 bbl/d, the same level as reported on 24 September.
• • The MGH-43 well has encountered 41 m of prospective gross sand intervals with good to excellent oil shows in the main TAF target that will now be perforated.
• Due to unstable hole conditions in MGH-43, Criterium was unable to conduct pressure testing and resistivity calculations on the zones of interest and therefore could not determine the estimated productivity rates.

• Siloam International Hospitals has continued to execute on bringing in more patients and increasing revenue intensity at its hospitals in Indonesia, with strong growth across numerous metrics.
• The company continues to lead its peers on average revenue per hospital bed and is an acknowledged leader across several specialities in Indonesia including cardiology, oncology, neurology, and orthopedics.
• CVC now controls a majority stake in Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) following recent disposals by Lippo Karawaci with the group being professionally managed. Valuations remain attractive versus peers.

• Pure nickel play PT Vale Indonesia, a leading global producer, could transform significantly over the next few years with plans to take stakes in projects more than doubling current output
• However, we see risks of a lull into 2025 as production is near capacity, the nickel price could potentially remain pressured from major global oversupply and operating costs could rise   
• Given the weak consensus 2025E ROE of 5%, a 1.6x P/B is not particularly inexpensive, although for longer-term investors considering the expansion potential this could be an entry point  

• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) has seen a sharp share price rebound recently with speculation over a tie up with Temu, which appears ill-founded, with the only newsflow being a Director resigning.
• The company swung back into a slight negative adjusted EBITDA in 2Q2024, mainly due to the seasonal impact of Lebaran on its O2O business and increased competition in virtual products.
• Bukalapak remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace, with increasing take rates ahead. Dealing with excess cash is a potential catalyst. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk
• Greentown China

• Broom, a tech startup empowering Indonesia’s used car showroom ecosystem, has closed a US$25 million Series A extension investment round led by Openspace Ventures.
• AC Ventures, Quona Capital, MUFG Innovation Partners, and PKSHA Capital also participated.
• Additionally, Broom has secured credit facilities from various institutions, including Komunal, Funding Societies Capital, Modalku Finansial Indonesia, Alami, Koinworks, Helicap, and DBS Indonesia, as well as support from several high-net-worth individual investors.

• The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
• We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
• There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.

• Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) provides a well-rounded exposure to gold and copper, where it has significant expansion plans in place for both metals through developing new assets. 
• The company has exposure to the EV battery ecosystem through Merdeka Battery Materials, which has one of the world’s largest nickel deposits at its SCM mine, developed by Rio Tinto.
• Merdeka Battery Materials is developing multiple HPAL processing plants in partnership with leading battery material companies. Valuations for FY2025E and FY2026E look interesting as new projects start to kick in. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• Medco Energi
• Tata Motors ADR

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Biocon Ltd
2. Lippo Karawaci
3. Tata Motors Ltd
4. Softbank Group
5. Rakuten

and more…