Category

Indonesia

Dec 31
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Cisarua Mountain Dairy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Rising Star in Staples

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Rising Star in Staples

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy stands out as a rising star amongst consumer staples in Indonesia driven by strong growth in both dairy through Cimory and premium foods through the Kanzler brand.
  • The company will continue to benefit from lower raw material costs, as it buys six months ahead and is investing in promotions to drive the growth of new products.
  • CMRY has launched Cimory Bites and Crispy Nuggets Spicy which will drive near terns growth, along with a focus on General Trade and MCM channels. Valuations are attractive versus growth.

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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Primed for Profitable Growth in 2025

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Primed for Profitable Growth in 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) looks well set for a strong finish to the year boosted by seasonal factors and a higher quarter for supplier rebates making it the peak quarter.
  • The company should be able to surpass its guidance for new store build-out in 2024, emphasising Alfamart and Alfamidi outlets, as it consolidates its Lawson rollout. 
  • Alfamart saw strong growth from online sales through Alfagift at +45% YoY, with Alfamart members reaching 20m, with 65% shopping every week. Valuations remain attractive with strong growth in 2025.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Barbell Strategies and Fintech to Dominate in 2025

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Barbell Strategies and Fintech to Dominate in 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia remains optimistic for the coming year, with increasing focus on converting hemat users to take up more premium products and it expands its suite of fintech offerings. 
  • Focus on profitability will remain core, with an emphasis on product-led initiatives such as GoFood Plus and GoFood Express, and increasing emphasis on growing its fintech offering across products. 
  • GoTo is increasingly using AI to improve both the customer experience and improve efficiencies. Advertising will increasingly become a tool to improve take rates with Tokopedia providing valuable cash flow.  

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Dec 27
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Vale Indonesia Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Vale Indonesia: First New Project Guidance, Rating Upgrade

Vale Indonesia: First New Project Guidance, Rating Upgrade

By Graeme Cunningham

  • Vale Indonesia has released the first guidance for its new projects with nickel matte to shift from 100% of revenue to 49% by 2029E, with nickel ore rising to 48%
  • S&P has upgraded the company’s credit rating to BB+ from BB, placing it ahead of Indonesia’s BB- country rating and below the BBB rating of parent company Vale   
  • We expect a weak nickel price will weigh on the shares in early 2025, although there could be considerable long-term upside from new projects and multiples remain low 

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Erajaya Swasembada and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Set up for a Stronger 2025

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Set up for a Stronger 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Erajaya Swasembada booked a strong performance in 3Q2024 but 4Q2024 is likely to be the peak seasonal quarter for sales, even with no sales of iPhone 16.
  • Chinese brands have accelerated the availability of affordable handsets, which should help to drive sales. JD Sports will be consolidated in December and Grand Lucky is performing well. 
  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) will continue to expand Erajaya Digitial in 2025, Erablue stores already be at 76 stores by November. Valuations remain attractive along with a strong growth profile. 

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Dec 19
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia), Indo Tambangraya Megah and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Mr DIY Indonesia IPO Trading – Recent Indo Listings Trade with Limited Liquidity
  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 12% Yield

Mr DIY Indonesia IPO Trading – Recent Indo Listings Trade with Limited Liquidity

By Clarence Chu

  • PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (2517930D IJ) raised US$296m from its Indonesia IPO.
  • Mr DIY Indonesia (MRDIYI) is a home improvement retailer. The entity is the Indonesian entity under the Mr DIY group’s list of subsidiaries.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 12% Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) recently had a decent move when it reported strong 3Q 2024 earnings in November. Despite that, it trades at a 12% dividend yield (65% payout).
  • In our last insight, we flagged an increase in mine life to 19 years (vs 14 years), further clarifying high-margin cash flows for longer. 
  • The company has 926 mn USD in net cash, ~50% of its market capitalization, and is trading at 5.5x PE (assuming 350 mn USD profits vs. 9MFY24 273 mn USD).

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Dec 18
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Delta Dunia Makmur and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Dunia Makmur – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Delta Dunia Makmur – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

  • PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (BUMA) is a holding company with an operational entity, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, which is one of the largest coal-mining contractors in Indonesia by production volume.
  • Its two other subsidiaries, PT Banyubiru Sakti and PT Pulau Mutiara Persada, are non-active entities which held coal exploration permits.
  • Formerly a textile business, BUMA was transformed into a real estate company in 2008 following the sale of the erstwhile business. 

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Indosat Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A conversation with Indosat (ISAT IJ) managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel’s recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. 
  • 2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. 
  • Indosat‘s move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp‘s GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Speeding the Horses to Profitability

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Speeding the Horses to Profitability

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A recent meeting with Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) looking at its longer-term strategy confirmed its differentiated standing, with a keen focus on an omnichannel strategy across key verticals.
  • The restructuring of its 1P business is yielding positive returns and higher margins, whilst its 3P business is being driven by strong performance from tiket.com, with offline stores performing well.
  • BELI recently opened a new 100,000 sqm distribution centre, which will further underpin its logistics excellence and improve delivery times even further. Valuations are attractive with profitability ahead in FY2025.

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Dec 12
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Mitra Adiperkasa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Strong Finisher

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, despite a lingering drag from Starbucks even with the boycott being lifted.
  • MAPI continues to expand its store network with 650 new stores targeted this year, with 400 under MAP Aktif and ongoing regional expansion. MAPI’s omnichannel strategy is also driving growth. 
  • Inventory levels are higher due to higher store count and ahead of various festive seasons. Inditex brands continue to drive fashion with MAPA showing the fastest growth. Valuations remain attractive. 

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