India

• BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) that operates FirstCry, India’s leading Online Mom and Child vertical, has launched a USD500 mn IPO that closes on August 8th.
• The IPO pricing suggest a post-money equity valuation of around USD 2.8 billion and an EV/Revenue multiple in the range of 3.5X-3.7X.
• Brainbees operates in an attractive online vertical noted for its high frequency purchases and long term customer relationship. However it has not built significant competitive advantages versus leading horizontal platforms.

• We highlight several red flags  with regard to BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) operations, business strategy and governance for investors’ careful consideration.
• At the announced IPO price band of Rs440 – Rs465, Brainbees implied EV/Revenues (FY24) works out to 3.5X – 3.7X – a significant discount to India listed online retail verticals.
• Despite seemingly inexpensive relative valuations, we do not see a compelling reason to invest in the company, specially given the several red flags discussed below.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Greentown China
• Medco Energi
• Vedanta Resources

• Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) demerged its stake in its Food FMCG business of Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN) to its shareholder.
• The demerger aims to comply with SEBI’s minimum public shareholding requirement, reducing promoter stake and enhancing public stake.
• This strategic move positions Adani Wilmar for focused growth, unlocking value for shareholders and reducing promoter selling pressure.

• Polyplex is the integrated packaging player with global manufacturing facilities catering global customers and wide industries with its wide product portfolios
• Polyplex saw a 70% jump in exports while there has been a significant jump in product prices and spreads
• Significant investment by an FMCG veteran into another packaging player at the bottom of the cycle further strengthens the thesis.

• Ola Electric (1700674D IN) plans to raise INR55bn through fresh issue of shares while existing shareholders will offer 84.9m shares at an indicative IPO price band of INR72-76 per share.
• We expect the company’s revenues to continue to expand and grow at much higher rates during the next few years compared to competitors in the Indian two-wheeler market.
• Our valuation analysis suggests that Ola Electric’s IPO is attractively priced compared to peers and we would suggest subscribing for the company’s IPO.

• JITF Infralogistics (JITFIN IN) sells its railway wagon business to Texmaco Rail And Engineering for Rs 465 crore.
• The sale marks a strategic shift towards focusing on water and urban infrastructure segments, leveraging growing market demands and government initiatives.
• JITF’s strategic sale and focus on infrastructure position it for substantial growth, driven by its robust order book and government support.

• In an attempt to cover more companies, we shift gears from individual companies to sectoral analysis, focusing on alcoholic beverages in this insight.
• Companies in focus are United Spirits (UNSP IN), Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN) , Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) & United Breweries (UBBL IN). 
• UNSP remains the best among the pack in terms of earnings quality, and SULA occupies the other extreme. RDCK is chasing growth, and UBBL is facing challenges. 

• Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) raised around US$222m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR679/share.
• Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.
• We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about demand and trading dynamics.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
• Indika Energy
• New World Development
• Tata Steel Thailand

• Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) reported strong 1Q2025 sales and earnings growth, driven by robust same-store sales growth (SSSG) and new store additions.
• Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN), the incumbent market leader, had a lacklustre performance for the quarter, highlighting Kalyan’s rapid growth.
• Expect Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) to outperform Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) , narrowing the steep relative valuation discount as it ramps up growth, improves performance metrics.

Tata Motors’ Q1/24-25 results were decent, with revenues and profit reaching record levels. However, net debt increased slightly following investment expenditure, preparations for the Range Rover EV launch and dividend payments. We share the company’s view that growth this year will likely be stable compared to the high base of FY 2023-24, due to: [1] consumer expectations surrounding the Range Rover EV launch and its initial revenue effects; and [2] the company’s profit margins decreasing slightly to cover the substantial initial costs for marketing, as well as the continuous quality improvements for new EV models. However, the company is confident about its FY 2025-26 target of a 10% EBIT margin. This may occur if the new electric models achieve stable quality rapidly, thus gradually reducing costs or even increasing the selling price.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• UPL Ltd

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, the coming week will see see the listing of Akums Drugs while books will  be open for Ola Electric, BrainBees Solutions and Black Sesame Technologies.
• On the placement front, there were two large deals in Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) and Adani Transmission (ADANIT IN). 

• BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, will launch an IPO to raise up to US$500 million.
• We previously discussed the IPO in Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case, Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case and Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Investment Case.
• Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs440-465 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

• Implied Volatilities (IVs) fell post-FOMC, but reversed course as market sentiment worsened late -week. IV-jump expected as Indian markets catch up to Friday’s U.S. price action 
• Vol-Regime Model still in a “High & Down” vol state. Will switch if large IV change on the open. Short Vega & Risk-Reversal positions will need to be reevaluated. 
• Low PCR, OI call bias & Skew compression: All point to unguarded downside in Nifty50. Next stop 24000.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: A8 New Media (800 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Sun Corp (6736 JP), Pacific Metals (5541 JP). 

• BrainBees Solutions is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
• FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

• Ola Electric (1700674D IN) is launching its IPO, consisting of fresh issue worth INR 5.5 bn and offer for sale upto 84.9 mn shares.
• The company delivered its first electric scooter in December 2021, and since then it has grown immensely to become a market leader with a share of 35%.
• As far as forensics go, one should look out for related party transactions with promoters, some accounting policies, constant losses, need for capex, trend of expenses, etc.

• BrainBees Solutions is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about its updated financials in the RHP.

• Ola Electric (1700674D IN) ‘s IPO appears attractive versus peers based on valuation analysis, supported by detailed sales and revenue projections.  
• Expect strong near-term revenue growth driven by its dominant market presence, e-mobility expansion, and potential entry into the e-motorcycle segment.
• With a significant head start in the rapidly growing e2W sector, Ola’s robust product lineup, competitive pricing, and strong brand make it a compelling EV play.

• BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, will launch an IPO to raise up to US$500 million.
• We previously discussed the IPO in Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case and Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case. In this note, we examine the RHP update.
• The RHP shows that positives (KPIs heading in the right direction, margin improvement, lower cash burn) offset the negatives (declining organic growth and deteriorating balance sheet).    

• Ola Electric is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with both technology and manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components (including battery packs, motors and vehicle frames).
• The company’s much awaited IPO is opening for subscription on Friday, and this insight focuses on new data points from the company’s latest Red Herring document (RHD).
• Our analysis shows that the company’s top line has continued to expand driven by volume while there has been significant reduction in operating losses in FY03/2024.

• India’s electric 2-wheeler sales nosedived after March 2024 as the government reduced incentives.
• The price gap between electric 2-wheelers and their ICE counterparts has widened significantly with lower incentives.
• Despite the overall slowdown, Ola Electric (1700674D IN) ‘s steep market share rise highlights its product prowess, competitive pricing capabilities, and strong brand.

• CMS Info Systems Ltd (CMSINFO IN) is the market leader in the Indian cash management and managed services industry. 
• The company has shown good growth in recent years, and this has mostly come from the managed services and card market.
• Among major forensic takeaways, the company has been taking continuous hit on its debtors which undermines the growth quality. Cautious must also be given to payables, depreciation rate and ESOPs.

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-March.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 12 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could see passive outflows in August.

• Ola Electric is now looking to raise about US$730m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s performance, undertook a peer comparison and talked about valuations. In this note, we look at the updates from its recent filings.

• Ola Electric (1700674D IN), the largest Indian player in electric two-wheel vehicles (E2W), is seeking to raise up to US$734 million. 
• We previously discussed the IPO in Ola Electric IPO: The Bull Case, Ola Electric IPO: The Bear Case and Ola Electric IPO: The Investment Case. 
• Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs72-76 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

• Ador Welding (AWL IN) is a renowned player in the business of manufacturing and trading of welding and related products.  
• The company sells welding consumables, equipments and also does preoject-engineering. While the company has seen recent growth in topline, there are few forensic checks that one must be cautious about.
• This relates to accounting policy relating to Flares segment, lack of conservatism relating to ECL provisioning and depreciation, troubles in generating cash, etc.

• Ola Electric is now looking to raise about US$730m in its India IPO.
• Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

• V-Mart Retail (VMART IN)  is an omni-channel value retailer, providing a range of products aimed at Bharat’s middle and lower middle class
• The company has implemented a cluster strategy that has supported its expansion across India. In FY24, V-Mart opened 46 new stores nationwide.
• Being over-indexed to value, V-MART has posted slower revenue growth compared to the recent past. New Warehouse and tigher control over inventory could boost cashflows further. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Vedanta Resources

• The Ola Electric (1700674D IN) IPO will see the company and existing shareholders sell 808.6m shares at a price range of INR72-76/share, valuing the company between US$3.79bn-US$4bn.
• Ola Electric (1700674D IN) will have a float of around 10% at the time of listing and that will increase to around 20% after the lock-up on anchor investors ends.
• Ola Electric (1700674D IN) could be added to global indices in February and March 2025, but inclusion in local indices with meaningful tracking assets will take longer.

• The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends in August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 27 September.
• Four potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn (US$80m).
• Three of the four potential deletions are due to a change in the index universe and there will be selling from other passive trackers too.

• Shares of Nazara Technologies (NAZARA IN) were rattled last week after the company had received show cause notice from the GST Department on 16th July.
• The GST liability pertained to two of its subsidiaries and summed up to INR 11.2 bn, which represents under 50% of consolidated net-worth.
• However because the GST for the industry is a delicate and debatable matter, the actual impact on the financials cannot be ascertained now, but company faces a high legal risk.

• Implied Volatilities (IVs) sold off dramatically post Budget Event – in spite of weaker underlying indices. Larger break of trading ranges likely needed to stall the slide in IVs.
• Wait-And-See approach to tactical decisions justified. Vol-Regime avoids a switch from “High & Down” state. Protracted grind lower in IVs projected.
• Vol Surface Smile has compressed alongside lower IVs. Skew remains unaffected by change in IV levels. Vol Term-structure has flattened.

• Ola Electric (1700674D IN) , India’s leading electric 2-wheeler backed by Softbank Group ‘s Vision Fund, will launch its USD 735 million IPO on Friday, August 2.
• The IPO pricing suggests a post-money equity valuation of around USD 4 billion, significantly lower than its earlier funding levels.
• Government incentives for EVs are being revised, with the current scheme valid only until the end of September, creating uncertainty that has possibly impacted valuations.

• Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRRD IN) had a good start to FY25, with a record high quarterly revenue of INR77B in Q1FY25, beating estimates.
• Increase in base business volume in the U.S. and revenue from Sanofi’s vaccine portfolio in India drove the revenue growth. Higher opex and effective tax rate impacted bottom line.
• The company will split its shares in the ratio of 1:5. This will be first time in last 20 years the company will be splitting its stocks.