India

• AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
• Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024, with the deals producing a mixed bag result.
• In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Continuum Green Energy
• Melco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines)
• West China Cement

• Hero FinCorp (HF) is looking to raise around US$438m in its upcoming India IPO.
• HF is a non-deposit taking NBFC. It offers a suite of financial products catering primarily to the retail segment and the MSME customer segment in India.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspets of the deal.

• Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
• Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)  has surged 75% from its IPO issue price. For investors wondering about potential upside, we present our base-to-bullish case valuation range for Ola Electric’s stock price.
• Sea (SE US) revised Shopee’s 2024 GMV growth outlook to the mid-20% range. Jollibee Foods(JFC PM)‘s  impressive June quarter results stand out against broader trend of weaker sales in QSR sector.

• Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)  launched its highly anticipated electric motorcycles, offering models from mass market to super premium.
• With entry-level e-bikes priced to compete directly with Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)’s popular models, Ola could disrupt India’s high-volume, competitive motorcycle market.
• Ola’s ebike volumes could ramp up quickly if its performance meets expectations of the value conscious customer base in the mass-end of the market.

• Prataap Snacks Ltd (DIAMOND IN)‘s acquisition of Avadh Snacks and recent manufacturing expansions, including new facilities in Kolkata, Jammu, and Rajkot, align with its growth strategy.
• PSL reported an 8.7% revenue increase in Q1 FY25, despite facing raw material cost inflation and rising overheads. The company has streamlined distribution and cost management to sustain margins.
• PSL’s focus on expanding high-margin segments and leveraging cost efficiencies positions it as a resilient and cheapest player in the snack industry.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lenovo
• Citicore Renewable Energy
• Vedanta Resources

• Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) is likely to get added at the March 2025 review following the lock-up expiry in November 2024 which increases the fcap way above the fcap threshold.
• Current fcap for February 2025 review is ~$1.2bn following the lock-up expiry in November 2024. Inclusion is based on whether fcap passes the prevailing fcap threshold.
• The lock-up expiry in February 2025, increases the probability of addition in May 2025 review if it fails inclusion in February. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lenovo
• Citicore Renewable Energy
• Vedanta Resources

• New CEO Suyog appointed in Q1 FY2025, who held leadership roles at Reliance Industries (RIL IN) and McKinsey & Company.
• Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) reported 28% revenue growth, 52% EBITDA growth and 95% PAT growth on YoY basis.
• Company become cautious about its FY25 EBITDA guidance of Rs. 1,450-1,700 crore, given global headwinds such as the Red Sea crisis and Chinese dumping.

• Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
• UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability 
• Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low

• ACME Solar Holdings (1700918D IN) is looking to raise US$360m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• ACME Solar (ACME) is a renewable energy firm with a portfolio of solar, wind, hybrid and firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) projects.
• In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

• Transformation of the company from Equity investment driven to Equity and stress business. 
• Complete restructuring of Reliance Capital and Reliance Home Finance into Authum and Focus on ARC and stressed assets.
• Recoveries in completely provided portfolios of Reliance Capital, Planned debt fundraise for further growth.

• Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) is looking to raise US$760m from selling some stake in Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN).
• Overall, while the deal would represent just 2.6% of the firm’s outstanding shares, the deal is a large one to digest at 41 days of the stock’s three month ADV.
• In this note, we take an early look at the deal, and comment on the deal dynamics.

• P N Gadgil Jewellers (1742652D IN) looking to raise up to US$132m in its upcoming India IPO.
• P N Gadgil Jewellers (PNGJ) is an Indian organized jewellery player. Its product offerings include traditional as well as modern and functional jewellery designs, in gold, diamond, silver and platinum.
• In this note, we look at the company’s historical performance.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd
• SK Hynix
• Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Guangzhou R&F Properties
• JSW Steel Ltd
• Yuexiu Property

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Bharti Airtel
• China Vanke
• China International Marine Containers A
• Vedanta Resources

• Hindenburg Research released a report on SEBI Chief Madhabi Puri Buch, accusing her of conflicts of interest, particularly about the Adani Group.
• Analysis of Responses given by Madhabi & Dhaval Buch, SEBI, 360 One and Adani.
• Analysis of events and allegations made by Hindenburg on Madhabi and critical assessment on that.

• BrainBees Solutions (FirstCry) raised around US$500m in its India IPO.
• FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• Ola Electric’s stock has surged since its Friday listing, despite a lukewarm IPO response. We look at a possible base-to-bullish case valuation range for Ola Electric’s stock price.
• With the e2W market up 96% YoY in July and Ola Electric’s sales soaring 114%, the momentum is strong. Likely catalyst on the horizon adds to investor optimism.
• Currently, on FY2026E EV/Revenue, Ola Electric trades on par with its closest Indian e2W peer.

• We focus on two electronics retailers Electronics Mart India (EMIL IN) & Aditya Vision (AVL IN) in this Narrative & Numbers for FY24. 
• EMIL is a leading player in the consumer electronics industry in India, with a strong presence in South India. 
• AVL is a leading player in the consumer electronics industry in India, with a strong presence in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh.

• IVs move higher in a controlled manner relative to U.S. markets. Combination of technical factors put a dampener on the Options Markets & IV turn lower by Week’s end.
• Many determining factors underwent changes in Vol-Regime Model  – but threshold to switch out of “High & Down” state not achieved.
• Smile & Skew characteristics blow out significantly on the open but settle at lower levels by week’s close.

• Rs. 1,000 crores allocated for growth, with Rs. 350 crores deployed. 25,000 spindles added by May 2025.
• Shift towards value-added products, including knitting, weaving, and dyed fabrics, with plans to double revenue in 3-5 years.
• Despite expansion and potential opportunities, capacity constraints and global demand shifts temper expectations in the short term.

• Aarti Industries (ARTO IN)  is planning a huge capex of 2500 Cr, which will increase their PPE by more than 50% from current CWIP and new capex.
• Company is targeting 1450 to 1700Cr EBITDA in next year which is almost 1.5x to 2x of the existing EBITDA.
• Introducing new products in the value chain, which has high-value added and high margins.

• Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, IIFL, JM Fin and SBI Caps. 
• Rubicon Research is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.
• It was ranked among the top 10 Indian companies, in terms of total Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) approvals, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).

• Ola Electric managed to raise around US$734m in its India IPO.
• Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• The Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) scheme of arrangement has received shareholder approval and regulatory approvals and should be implemented in the short-term.
• There will be small buying from global passive trackers while there will be much bigger buying from NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) trackers.
• In total, we estimate passive trackers will need to buy 25.2m shares (US$308m; 1.9x ADV) of Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) with buying coming in at different times. 

• Paras Healthcare Limited (0490145D IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, IIFL and Motilal Oswal.
• Paras Healthcare is the fifth largest healthcare provider, in terms of bed capacity in North India, Bihar and Jharkhand, with an aggregate of 2,135 beds, as of March 31, 2024.
• The company offers several clinical specialties across its hospitals including cardiac sciences, oncology, neuro sciences, gastro sciences and orthopedics and joint replacement.

• Suraksha Diagnostic (1481262D IN) is looking to raise up to US$230m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, Nuvama Wealth and SBI Capital.
• Suraksha Diagnostic is a full-service and integrated diagnostic chain. It offers a one-stop integrated solution for pathology and radiology testing, and medical consultation services to its customers.
• It has flagship central reference laboratory, eight satellite laboratories and 194 customer touchpoints, and 146 sample collection centres (primarily franchised) as of FY24, across certain states of India.

• We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
• We’re shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
• Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said “Japan’s TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse.”