ACC has delivered 11% EBITDA/te CAGR over CY16-CY21E vs 7% for our coverage universe led by increased cost efficiencies. ACC’s EBITDA/te inched up to Rs1,127/te during 9MCY21E resulting in narrowing of the gap vs peers.
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The appointment of Mr. C V R Rajendran as MD and CEO in December 2016 set the tone for the transformation of the Bank
A slew of measures undertaken by the bank, coupled with capital infusion by new promoters, has strengthened its balance sheet
Demonetisation and imposition of GST, along with a general decline in the economic environment led to weakness in the bank’s asset quality
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Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.
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The strong growth potential of Indian non-life insurance remains the key investment argument of ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI). The company’s RoE and market share remains stable and there are several available levers which could potentially result in positive earnings cycle over next two years.
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We initiate coverage on Fino Payments Bank (Fino) with BUY rating and TP of Rs475. Fino is uniquely positioned to capture growing opportunities in rural India, led by deep-rural products like MATM (~51% market share as on Aug’21) & AEPS, tailor-made CASA accounts for under served population, and payment app called “FinoPay” targeting rural population
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Welspun India Ltd. (WIL) – a part of the Welspun Group of companies is one of the largest Indian Home Textile companies
It has a strong export presence in the USA and European markets with ~90% of the revenues contributed by exports
We recommend BUY with a TP of Rs 175/share
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eClerx Services (eClerx) provides business process management, automation and analytics services.
It caters to financial services, communications, retail, media, manufacturing, travel and technology companies
We roll over valuations to FY24E and value eClerx at Rs 2900 i.e. 21x P/E on FY24E EPS
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Indigo Paints (INDIGOPN) is the fifth largest company operating in the INR542b (USD7.2b) Paints industry in India
We expect INDIGOPN to continue with its robust strategy and thereby deliver a sales/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of ~28%/35%/41% over FY21–24E
We initiate coverage with a Buy rating, with TP of INR2,270 (55x FY24E EPS).
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Based on our channel checks, we believe Varun Beverages is likely to maintain strong double-digit volume growth, in line with earlier quarters. It has not yet raised prices of its products in spite of inflation in key raw materials such as sugar and PET (packaging material). It plans to focus on Eastern states and is on track to set up a new plant in Bihar.
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IDFC Ltd is registered with RBI as NBFC – Investments. Besides banking, it also has investments in diverse businesses such as asset management, and infrastructure debt fund.
IDFC Ltd has jumped over 11% with the reverse merger news coming in; while in the past one year, the stock has increased over 50%
In our SoTP, IDFC First Bank is valued at ~1.6x FY23E ABV and AMC business at 4% of AAUM to arrive at a revised target price of Rs 70 per share for IDFC Ltd
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Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
We initiate coverage on PCBL with a BUY rating and target price of Rs300, valuing the stock at 12x FY24E PE. PCBL has recalibrated after challenging times till FY14. It is strengthening its business model; re-innovated with an emphasis on R&D, and is seeing structural tailwind from reduced China concern.
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CA Grameen’s journey from being a project under T Muniswamappa Trust (TMT) in 1999, an NGO in South Bangalore, to becoming the largest NBFC-MFI in India as on Sep’21 with consolidated AUM of Rs133bn and borrower base of 3.75mn is testimony of its resilient business model. It has been successfully navigating many challenging events like AP crisis, demonetisation and two covid waves.
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Sun Pharmaceuticals is the largest Indian Pharma company.
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Burger King India (BURGERKI IN) (BKI) has ventured into the QSR industry in India, which is poised to grow a CAGR of 19% to INR 825 bn by F25.
The company has a well-defined restaurant rollout and development process with the aim of growing at a quick pace and leveraging the disruption at the McDonalds franchise in the north.
However looming threats of Omicron can put the company at a risk of getting cash strapped in the near future.
CA Grameen’s journey from being a project under T Muniswamappa Trust (TMT) in 1999, an NGO in South Bangalore, to becoming the largest NBFC-MFI in India as on Sep’21 with consolidated AUM of Rs133bn and borrower base of 3.75mn is testimony of its resilient business model. It has been successfully navigating many challenging events like AP crisis, demonetisation and two covid waves.
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We initiate coverage on PCBL with a BUY rating and target price of Rs300, valuing the stock at 12x FY24E PE. PCBL has recalibrated after challenging times till FY14. It is strengthening its business model; re-innovated with an emphasis on R&D, and is seeing structural tailwind from reduced China concern.
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ITD Cementation India Ltd (ITDCIL) is one of the few pure-play infrastructure execution companies left in India, in the last decade the entire infra space in India has diversified into debt funded asset heavy infra ownership which has led to tremendous value destruction. The company is engaged in the construction of marine structures, highways, bridges & flyovers, metros, airports, hydro-tunneling, dams & canals, water & wastewater segment, industrial structures, buildings and specialist foundation engineering projects with presence across India. IDTCIL receives technological support from its parent company Italian-Thai Development Public Company Ltd (ITDPCL). ITDPCL has a presence across the globe and has expertise in the airport, Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS), high-speed bullet train projects, marine projects among others.
In the last 12 months, ITDCIL has grown at 24% with revenue at INR 25.9 bn. EBITDA and PAT stood at INR 3.34 bn and INR 1.18 bn receptively with EBITDA margin and PAT margin at 12.9% and 4.57% receptively. EBITDA margins contracted by 174 bps and PAT margin expanded by 109 bps. During the same period EBITDA grew by 9% and PAT increased by 62.4%.
The company’s order book as of Dec’18 stands at INR 95 bn with 45 bn order inflow between Jan’18 to Dec’18 its Book to Bill ratio is 3.73 times.
Drivers: India is an infra deficit country. In 2015, India spent about 5% of GDP on Infra and this expenditure needs to cost about 8.5% (Climate adjusted investment under high growth scenario of 7.8% GDP growth) over 2016-2030 and estimated infra spending though 2030 is expected to be USD 5.5 tn. Per the Global Competitive Index, India’s infrastructure score had increased from 3.4 out of 7 in 2008 to 4.2 points out of 7 in 2017. Being the fastest growing among large economies and infra deficit country, India offers enough opportunities for investment in the infrastructure sector.
ITDCIL has proven expertise in urban infra ( especially metro rail) and marine structures which are seeing a huge impetus in India with almost all major cities either building or planning to develop metro rails and significant investments going into developing port infrastructures and inland waterways through the Sagarmala, river cleaning through Namami Gange among others. The Government of India (GOI) is expected to spend about INR 8 trillion through Sagarmala and INR 200 bn through Namami Gange. ITD Cementation India Ltd is expected to be one of the beneficiary due to its experience in metro and marine segment.
The company is expected to grow at 65% in FY19 (15-month financial year) and is expected to register EBITDA margin of 12.4% and Profit margin of 4.26% with EBITDA at INR 4.3 bn and Profit at INR 1.57 bn. The company’s shares at the current price of INR 132 are trading at a PEx 19.21x its TTM EPS, 19.12x its FY19F EPS (calculated for 12 months) and 16.31x its FY20F EPS. The company’s ROE and ROA for the previous financial year stood at 11.81% and 3.05% respectively.
Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$680m in its India IPO. Of this, it has already raised around US$125m from Capital Group, who came in as a strategic investor. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of around US$4.5bn.
In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth and compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India:
In this insight, I’ll cover the deal dynamics, compare the revised forecast in the RHP with the earlier one from the DRHP, comment on the yield boost from the zero coupon debt and run the deal through our framework.
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ITD Cementation India Ltd (ITDCIL) is one of the few pure-play infrastructure execution companies left in India, in the last decade the entire infra space in India has diversified into debt funded asset heavy infra ownership which has led to tremendous value destruction. The company is engaged in the construction of marine structures, highways, bridges & flyovers, metros, airports, hydro-tunneling, dams & canals, water & wastewater segment, industrial structures, buildings and specialist foundation engineering projects with presence across India. IDTCIL receives technological support from its parent company Italian-Thai Development Public Company Ltd (ITDPCL). ITDPCL has a presence across the globe and has expertise in the airport, Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS), high-speed bullet train projects, marine projects among others.
In the last 12 months, ITDCIL has grown at 24% with revenue at INR 25.9 bn. EBITDA and PAT stood at INR 3.34 bn and INR 1.18 bn receptively with EBITDA margin and PAT margin at 12.9% and 4.57% receptively. EBITDA margins contracted by 174 bps and PAT margin expanded by 109 bps. During the same period EBITDA grew by 9% and PAT increased by 62.4%.
The company’s order book as of Dec’18 stands at INR 95 bn with 45 bn order inflow between Jan’18 to Dec’18 its Book to Bill ratio is 3.73 times.
Drivers: India is an infra deficit country. In 2015, India spent about 5% of GDP on Infra and this expenditure needs to cost about 8.5% (Climate adjusted investment under high growth scenario of 7.8% GDP growth) over 2016-2030 and estimated infra spending though 2030 is expected to be USD 5.5 tn. Per the Global Competitive Index, India’s infrastructure score had increased from 3.4 out of 7 in 2008 to 4.2 points out of 7 in 2017. Being the fastest growing among large economies and infra deficit country, India offers enough opportunities for investment in the infrastructure sector.
ITDCIL has proven expertise in urban infra ( especially metro rail) and marine structures which are seeing a huge impetus in India with almost all major cities either building or planning to develop metro rails and significant investments going into developing port infrastructures and inland waterways through the Sagarmala, river cleaning through Namami Gange among others. The Government of India (GOI) is expected to spend about INR 8 trillion through Sagarmala and INR 200 bn through Namami Gange. ITD Cementation India Ltd is expected to be one of the beneficiary due to its experience in metro and marine segment.
The company is expected to grow at 65% in FY19 (15-month financial year) and is expected to register EBITDA margin of 12.4% and Profit margin of 4.26% with EBITDA at INR 4.3 bn and Profit at INR 1.57 bn. The company’s shares at the current price of INR 132 are trading at a PEx 19.21x its TTM EPS, 19.12x its FY19F EPS (calculated for 12 months) and 16.31x its FY20F EPS. The company’s ROE and ROA for the previous financial year stood at 11.81% and 3.05% respectively.
Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$680m in its India IPO. Of this, it has already raised around US$125m from Capital Group, who came in as a strategic investor. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of around US$4.5bn.
In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth and compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India:
In this insight, I’ll cover the deal dynamics, compare the revised forecast in the RHP with the earlier one from the DRHP, comment on the yield boost from the zero coupon debt and run the deal through our framework.
The weak January industrial production data and benign inflation data for February reinforce the belief that the economy has hit a soft patch. With the government in election mode, public spending is likely to slowdown. Monetary policy is thus likely to turn accommodative to support growth given that inflation is likely to remain well inside the MPC’s target of 4%. Indeed odds are increasing for continuation of monetary easing beyond April, especially if the forecast is for a normal monsoon.
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ITD Cementation India Ltd (ITDCIL) is one of the few pure-play infrastructure execution companies left in India, in the last decade the entire infra space in India has diversified into debt funded asset heavy infra ownership which has led to tremendous value destruction. The company is engaged in the construction of marine structures, highways, bridges & flyovers, metros, airports, hydro-tunneling, dams & canals, water & wastewater segment, industrial structures, buildings and specialist foundation engineering projects with presence across India. IDTCIL receives technological support from its parent company Italian-Thai Development Public Company Ltd (ITDPCL). ITDPCL has a presence across the globe and has expertise in the airport, Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS), high-speed bullet train projects, marine projects among others.
In the last 12 months, ITDCIL has grown at 24% with revenue at INR 25.9 bn. EBITDA and PAT stood at INR 3.34 bn and INR 1.18 bn receptively with EBITDA margin and PAT margin at 12.9% and 4.57% receptively. EBITDA margins contracted by 174 bps and PAT margin expanded by 109 bps. During the same period EBITDA grew by 9% and PAT increased by 62.4%.
The company’s order book as of Dec’18 stands at INR 95 bn with 45 bn order inflow between Jan’18 to Dec’18 its Book to Bill ratio is 3.73 times.
Drivers: India is an infra deficit country. In 2015, India spent about 5% of GDP on Infra and this expenditure needs to cost about 8.5% (Climate adjusted investment under high growth scenario of 7.8% GDP growth) over 2016-2030 and estimated infra spending though 2030 is expected to be USD 5.5 tn. Per the Global Competitive Index, India’s infrastructure score had increased from 3.4 out of 7 in 2008 to 4.2 points out of 7 in 2017. Being the fastest growing among large economies and infra deficit country, India offers enough opportunities for investment in the infrastructure sector.
ITDCIL has proven expertise in urban infra ( especially metro rail) and marine structures which are seeing a huge impetus in India with almost all major cities either building or planning to develop metro rails and significant investments going into developing port infrastructures and inland waterways through the Sagarmala, river cleaning through Namami Gange among others. The Government of India (GOI) is expected to spend about INR 8 trillion through Sagarmala and INR 200 bn through Namami Gange. ITD Cementation India Ltd is expected to be one of the beneficiary due to its experience in metro and marine segment.
The company is expected to grow at 65% in FY19 (15-month financial year) and is expected to register EBITDA margin of 12.4% and Profit margin of 4.26% with EBITDA at INR 4.3 bn and Profit at INR 1.57 bn. The company’s shares at the current price of INR 132 are trading at a PEx 19.21x its TTM EPS, 19.12x its FY19F EPS (calculated for 12 months) and 16.31x its FY20F EPS. The company’s ROE and ROA for the previous financial year stood at 11.81% and 3.05% respectively.
Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$680m in its India IPO. Of this, it has already raised around US$125m from Capital Group, who came in as a strategic investor. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of around US$4.5bn.
In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth and compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India:
In this insight, I’ll cover the deal dynamics, compare the revised forecast in the RHP with the earlier one from the DRHP, comment on the yield boost from the zero coupon debt and run the deal through our framework.
The weak January industrial production data and benign inflation data for February reinforce the belief that the economy has hit a soft patch. With the government in election mode, public spending is likely to slowdown. Monetary policy is thus likely to turn accommodative to support growth given that inflation is likely to remain well inside the MPC’s target of 4%. Indeed odds are increasing for continuation of monetary easing beyond April, especially if the forecast is for a normal monsoon.
For the beleaguered non-bank finance company (NBFC) sector, banks are the single largest component of external funding. This source peaked at the end of September 2018, in the aftermath of the default of IL&FS, a private unlisted infrastructure developer and financer. However, in the beginning of the last quarter of the financial year ended March 31, 2019 (4QFY2019), when bank credit in the economy normally peaks, bank credit to NBFCs (as on January 18, 2019) has declined as compared with the previous month. The sharp spurt in bank credit at end-September probably indicates that NBFCs utilised their sanctioned limits with the banks, and top-rated NBFCs took on excessive bank loans to tide over their asset-liability mis-matches in that period. Subsequently, by early January 2019, banks may not have renewed or rolled over the NBFC bank limits, which led to a drawing down of bank credit. It therefore appears that bank finance will continue to remain tight for NBFCs in the last quarter of FY2019, as they sell their assets to banks and restrict asset growth in order to remain liquid.
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As payment providers move up from pure transactions to more value-added services like Wealth Management & Offline payments, we also suggest possible channel checks for the focus companies with a view of understanding economics and competitive intensity.
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) approval of the selection of Amitabh Chaudhry, the then HDFC Standard Life Insurance Chief Executive Officer (CEO), as the Axis Bank CEO on August 8, 2018, and his taking charge on January 1, 2019, were celebrated by the market. Analysts and the media were also favourably inclined towards his lateral new hires in the senior management, all of whom had spent many years in HDFC Bank. Unfortunately, these developments actually revealed a strategic fault line in the organisation. The Axis Bank board in its quarter century of existence has not only failed to groom internal candidates for the top-most job, but also recently has been unable to nurture or to trust internal candidates being appointed as executive directors and other critical posts (exception of Chief Risk Officer) in senior management. Recently, it has announced a voluntary retirement scheme which is virtually devoid of benefits to the retiring personnel; over 50 senior management personnel are being eased out at the end of April 2019 with little more than Mediclaim and unexercised stock options to show for their years of service. Such a step is likely to send demoralising tremors down the entire organisation. When the board of Axis Bank believes that only outsiders can be trusted in critical posts in senior management, and these posts are denied to the in-house cadre, how can the bank achieve the present CEO’s performance objectives of a sustainable ROE of 18% and doubling the market capitalisation?
In our latest Asian Tower Trends report, Chris Hoare looks at the listed telecom tower industry across the region. During 4Q18, we became more optimistic on the Asian tower space.
China: Last December, we upgraded what is by far the largest towerco globally, China Tower (788 HK), after it became clear the story was much better than disclosed at the time of the IPO (still a mystery as to why this happened),
The Indian tower business has been buffeted by rapid industry consolidation but we think it is now near a bottom, and recently raised Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN) to Neutral, and
Growth is improving in Indonesia with increased investment ex Java from the smaller operators. Protelindo (TOWR IJ) our preferred name, but Tower Bersama (TBIG IJ) has lagged badly recently and may be due some catch up.
With the 5G investment cycle a key theme for coming years, we are now more constructive on the telecom tower space in general.
China’s current efforts to gain prominence in the semiconductor market targets memory chips – large commodities. This three-part series of insights examines how China determined its strategy and explains which companies are the most threatened by it.
This second part of the series explains how China chose commodity semiconductors (DRAM and NAND flash memory chips) as the best technology to pursue.
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Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$680m in its India IPO. Of this, it has already raised around US$125m from Capital Group, who came in as a strategic investor. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of around US$4.5bn.
In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth and compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India:
In this insight, I’ll cover the deal dynamics, compare the revised forecast in the RHP with the earlier one from the DRHP, comment on the yield boost from the zero coupon debt and run the deal through our framework.
The weak January industrial production data and benign inflation data for February reinforce the belief that the economy has hit a soft patch. With the government in election mode, public spending is likely to slowdown. Monetary policy is thus likely to turn accommodative to support growth given that inflation is likely to remain well inside the MPC’s target of 4%. Indeed odds are increasing for continuation of monetary easing beyond April, especially if the forecast is for a normal monsoon.
For the beleaguered non-bank finance company (NBFC) sector, banks are the single largest component of external funding. This source peaked at the end of September 2018, in the aftermath of the default of IL&FS, a private unlisted infrastructure developer and financer. However, in the beginning of the last quarter of the financial year ended March 31, 2019 (4QFY2019), when bank credit in the economy normally peaks, bank credit to NBFCs (as on January 18, 2019) has declined as compared with the previous month. The sharp spurt in bank credit at end-September probably indicates that NBFCs utilised their sanctioned limits with the banks, and top-rated NBFCs took on excessive bank loans to tide over their asset-liability mis-matches in that period. Subsequently, by early January 2019, banks may not have renewed or rolled over the NBFC bank limits, which led to a drawing down of bank credit. It therefore appears that bank finance will continue to remain tight for NBFCs in the last quarter of FY2019, as they sell their assets to banks and restrict asset growth in order to remain liquid.
Following three years of share price declines, Chris Hoare has started to moderate his negative view on Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN). Our thesis, that Infratel would struggle as the market consolidated to three players, has largely played out. We remain wary of the viability of Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) at current tariff levels but the ongoing capital raising at IDEA puts off the day of reckoning, while IDEA’s exit penalties (as they consolidate with Vodafone) are being paid quarterly which will flatter revenues/cash flow. We think earnings forecasts have probably bottomed for the time being and raise our recommendation to Neutral and upgrade our price target to INR270 (from INR220).
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