Category

India

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Bharat FIH, Piramal Enterprises, Innova Captab, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC/​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Selling Leads to Higher Foreign Room
  • Bharat FIH Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not a Whole Lot to Show Yet
  • Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN): Demerger to Create a Differentiated and Niche Pharmaceutical Business
  • Innova Captab Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

HDFC/​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Selling Leads to Higher Foreign Room

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign selling has continued on HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and foreign room on the proforma merged entity is 17.23%.
  • Higher than 15% foreign room will require passive MSCI trackers to buy 209m shares (US$4.05bn) of HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) at the time of merger implementation.
  • If foreign selling continues and foreign room on the merged entity exceeds 20%, there will be buying from passive FTSE trackers as well.

Bharat FIH Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not a Whole Lot to Show Yet

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bharat FIH (BFIH) aims to raise around US$660m in its India IPO via selling a mix of both primary and secondary shares. BFIH is a subsidiary of Foxconn.
  • Its initial operations were focused on mobile phones, of late it has been expanding its portfolio to include mechanics, electric vehicles, televisions and hearables. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN): Demerger to Create a Differentiated and Niche Pharmaceutical Business

By Tina Banerjee

  • Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) obtained shareholders nod for demerging its pharma business and consolidated under Piramal Pharma Limited (PPL). Later, PPL will be listed on India stock exchange.
  • PPL has a differentiated pharmaceutical business model, with three business verticals. CDMO, the largest revenue contributor, has track record of consistent above-market growth due to its niche and complex capabilities.  
  • Listed as a separate entity, PPL will see multiple expansion and command premium valuation over other Indian generic drug makers, due to its niche and limited competition portfolio.

Innova Captab Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Innova Captab (1605221D IN)  is looking to raise about US$115m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI and JM Financial.
  • Innova Captab is an integrated pharmaceutical company in India with a presence across the pharmaceuticals value chain including research and development, manufacturing, drug distribution and marketing and exports. 
  • Its business includes a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) business providing manufacturing services to Indian pharmaceutical companies, a domestic branded generics business and an international branded generics business.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Walmart and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Walmart (WMT US) | Why Walmart Is Likely to Win in India’s ONDC World Compared to Amazon

Walmart (WMT US) | Why Walmart Is Likely to Win in India’s ONDC World Compared to Amazon

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • India’s Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) is expected to break duopolies across the digital commerce ecosystem including e-marketplaces like Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN) & Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)
  • We think it is the other way around. We expect them to thrive and become even more dominant in case the market expands as envisioned under ONDC. 
  • While it could be too early & premature, Walmart (WMT US) thanks to its investments in Flipkart and the path chosen by PhonePe is better placed compared to Amazon in India.

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Daily Brief India: Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC), Bharat FIH, Anton Oilfield and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks
  • Bharat FIH Pre-IPO – The Positives – A Whole Lot of Promise
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, China Datang Corp Renewable Power, Vedanta Resources

NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

By Brian Freitas


Bharat FIH Pre-IPO – The Positives – A Whole Lot of Promise

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bharat FIH (BFIH) aims to raise around US$660m in its India IPO via selling a mix of both primary and secondary shares. BFIH is a subsidiary of Foxconn.
  • Its initial operations were focussed on mobile phones, of late it has been expanding its portfolio to include mechanics, electric vehicles, televisions and hearables. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, China Datang Corp Renewable Power, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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India: Mahindra & Mahindra, Suprajit Engineering, Tata Consultancy Svcs and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Mahindra & Mahindra – Equity Infusion at a ‘Too Good’ to Be True Valuation
  • Suprajit Engineering – Replicating Indian Success on the Global Platform
  • Tata Consultancy Services – Steady as of Now but Visibility and Order Inflow Seem Challenges

Mahindra & Mahindra – Equity Infusion at a ‘Too Good’ to Be True Valuation

By Nirmal Bang

  • Demand trend and outlook: M&M is seeing strong demand for its products and expects this growth momentum to continue, backed by a robust order book (~170k). 
  • It has launched the new Scorpio N in June’22, which is further expected to propel overall bookings.
  • Furthermore, we expect tractor volume to grow at low single digits in FY23, driven by the good monsoon season and higher rural incomes.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Suprajit Engineering – Replicating Indian Success on the Global Platform

By Nirmal Bang

  • Exports to drive growth ahead of industry in Automotive Cables business: SEL is the market leader in Automotive Cables with a ~75% market share in 2W OEMs (48% of segment revenue) and ~32% in 4W OEMs (18% of segment revenue).
  • While we believe that in 2W and 4W OEMs, the company will grow in line with industry growth, the next leg of outperformance will be led by pick-up in exports.
  • Exports contribute ~18% to the Auto Cable revenue.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Tata Consultancy Services – Steady as of Now but Visibility and Order Inflow Seem Challenges

By Nirmal Bang

  • Macro not hitting demand yet: TCS indicated that order pipeline velocity and deal closures continue to be strong.
  • While client conversations at the CXO levels see great deal of discussions on the macro challenges, they have not translated into spending cuts yet.
  • TCS stated that it has been constantly polling clients to see whether there is an early indication of demand softening, and as of now there is none to speak of.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


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India: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India Channel Insight #41 | Haier, Samsung, Voltas

India Channel Insight #41 | Haier, Samsung, Voltas

By Pranav Bhavsar


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India: Allied Blenders & Distillers, Marico Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO Tear Sheet
  • Marico Ltd – Weak Consumption Trends Weigh on 1QFY23 Volume

Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO Tear Sheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • Allied Blenders and Distillers (ABD) is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ISec, Axis, JM Fin, Kotak and Equirus.
  • ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY21.
  • It had a market share of 8.2% in the IMFL market by sales volumes in FY21. Its products are retailed at over 64,000 outlets in India.

Marico Ltd – Weak Consumption Trends Weigh on 1QFY23 Volume

By Nirmal Bang

  • Tepid demand leads to mid-single-digit volume decline in India business: MRCO’s domestic business (~77% of revenue) saw mid-single-digit volume decline in 1QFY23, largely dragged by a sharp drop in Saffola Oils, which had high in-home consumption in the base quarter and also witnessed significant downtrading from super premium to mass segment in Edible Oils.
  • Gross margins to stay flat sequentially: Trends seen in certain key raw materials for MRCO in 1QFY23: (i) Copra prices remained soft, (ii) Edible and crude oil prices cooled off to some extent towards the end of the quarter.

  • View & Valuation: Barring the recent quarters (affected by overall deceleration in market demand), MRCO’s core portfolio has delivered a strong performance and the company continues to make efforts towards meeting its medium-term growth aspirations.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


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India: Kids Clinic India, ABM Investama and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Kids Clinic India Pre-IPO – Losses Narrowing with Cluster Model Growth Strategy
  • Asia HY Monthly – June 2022 – Lucror Analytics

Kids Clinic India Pre-IPO – Losses Narrowing with Cluster Model Growth Strategy

By Ethan Aw

  • Kids Clinic India (9890311Z IN) is looking to raise approximately US$160m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Kids Clinic India (KCI) is a super-specialty mother and baby-care provider, offering end-to-end coverage of all stages of the parenthood journey, beginning with fertility treatments, through maternity, neonatology and paediatrics.
  • KCI’s growth has been impressive, becoming operating EBITDA and CFO positive in recent years. However, it remains unclear as to which business segment or regions are KCI’s largest growth drivers.

Asia HY Monthly – June 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.


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India: Swiggy, Powerlong Real Estate Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India Food Delivery – Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)
  • Weekly Wrap – 01 Jul 2022

India Food Delivery – Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • The near term impact of ONDC on OFD platforms like Zomato & Swiggy is limited, longer term they will have to move from platform to a network centric model.
  • An external shock will be required to drive faster ONDC adaption as we have seen in the case of UPI.
  • Logistics companies especially the ones with express capabilities are likely beneficiaries in case ONDC scales up rapidly. 

Weekly Wrap – 01 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Sunac China Holdings
  2. Shimao Property Holdings
  3. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings
  4. JSW Steel Ltd
  5. Tata Steel Ltd

and more…


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India: Zomato, Max Healthcare Institute and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Zomato Blinkit Deal: Stains Get More Murky
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): 4QFY22 Review- Continued Growth Momentum; Better Profitability

Zomato Blinkit Deal: Stains Get More Murky

By Nitin Mangal

  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN) ‘s announcement to acquire Blinkit (BCPL) for all-stock deal worth INR 44.5 bn has rattled the market price of the stock in the trading sessions that followed.
  • While the management focuses on the cost synergies and the bigger picture, the acquisition has left several doubts, including the valuation and cash burning nature of Blinkit.
  • More importantly, it is the corporate governance that should be looked at, especially since this is an indirect RPT, as mentioned in our earlier report Zomato’s Investments Game: Stain on Governance.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): 4QFY22 Review- Continued Growth Momentum; Better Profitability

By Tina Banerjee

  • Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) reported Q4FY22 results in-line with expectations, with 12% revenue and 58% net profit growth. The EBITDA margin improved 70 basis points to 24.8% during Q4FY22.
  • Despite the Omicron, the average occupancy for the quarter stood at 68%, partly fueled by the international medical tourism bouncing back to ~90% of the pre-covid levels in March 2022.
  • The company plans to add over 2,800 beds in the next five years. For context, it has current bed capacity of 3,400. Capex will be funded through internal accrual.

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India: Hitachi Home & Life Solutions India Ltd, Dish TV India, Ultratech Cement and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Johnson Controls-Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Irreparable Loss in Market Share
  • Dish TV: Promoters Left in the Dark, or Is There Something Else?
  • UltraTech Cement Ltd – Steep Correction Has Made Valuations Reasonable

Johnson Controls-Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Irreparable Loss in Market Share

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Our checks suggest Hitachi Home & Life Solutions India Ltd (JCHAC IN) has lost market share this season. 
  • Market share loss has come on the back of poor product quality due to focus on costs and competition, which is irreparable in spite of the strong dealer network. 
  • Poor capital allocation, high receivables and low-profit margins, all warrant attention. 

Dish TV: Promoters Left in the Dark, or Is There Something Else?

By Nitin Mangal

  • The legal tussle between promoters of Dish TV India (DITV IN) and Yes Bank (YES IN) has again entered into the limelight.
  • The promoters of Dish TV, after repeatedly attempting to block Yes Bank from voting, have been left in the dark by the Bombay High Court’s verdict. 
  • However, Mr. Goel still continues to sit on the board which irked several investors. This indicates that the story is not over and there are still some grey areas.

UltraTech Cement Ltd – Steep Correction Has Made Valuations Reasonable

By Nirmal Bang

  • Market share gains for Ultratech will be difficult going forward
  • Sizeable improvement in EBITDA/mt for Adani possible: Holcim group’s aggregate EBITDA/mt is ~Rs200/mt lower than Ultratech’s for the past three years or so.

  • Valuation multiples have room to grow for the combined ACC-Ambuja entity

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


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