Category

India

Daily Brief India: TVS Motor and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

By Brian Freitas

  • It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.
  • The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.
  • There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) ETF.

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Daily Brief India: Tata Motors Ltd, ABM Investama and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 02 Jun 2023
  • Asia HY Monthly – May 2023 – Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap – 02 Jun 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. China Jinmao Holdings
  3. Lifestyle International Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…


Asia HY Monthly – May 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.


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Daily Brief India: Coal India Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Coal India Follow-On – Recent Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Haven’t Done Much
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR

Coal India Follow-On – Recent Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Haven’t Done Much

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Government of India is looking to raise up to US$540m via selling around 3% of Coal India.
  • This will be the third divestment by the Government since 2015 and the past two deals didn’t end up doing much.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Nesco Ltd, Kolte Patil Developers, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – FY 2022-23 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Nesco: BEC Business Is Now Beyond Pre-COVID Level | Foods Business Is Expanding Into New Horizons
  • Kolte Patil: Strong Q4FY23 In Line With The Optimistic Expectations
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – FY 2022-23 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone’s (APSEZ) FY 2022-23 results were in line with expectations, with revenue and EBITDA exceeding management’s guidance. That said, cargo volume growth slightly missed estimates. Leverage was largely stable (despite heavy outlays for acquisition and capex), thanks to strong earnings improvement. For FY 2023-24, we anticipate the company will generate FCF of INR 50-60 bn, assuming APSEZ does not make any material new acquisitions.

Management reiterated that the company’s priority is to deleverage in FY 2023-24, and guided for Net Debt/EBITDA to improve to 2.5x (from 3.1x in FY 2022-23). There are recent media reports that the Adani Group has committed to USD 10 bn of investments in Vietnam. Management clarified that the investments are meant to be carried out over the medium to long term.

We believe the fallout for Adani Group from Hindenburg Research’s short-sell report in late January 2023 is largely over. We view positively that the group has been addressing some of Hindenburg’s allegations by reducing leverage and raising equity to repay share-backed loans.


Nesco: BEC Business Is Now Beyond Pre-COVID Level | Foods Business Is Expanding Into New Horizons

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • As projected, Nesco’s BEC business has completely normalized and clocked INR 45cr+ revenues in Q4FY23. With this, Nesco clocked FY23 PAT of INR 290cr+, well above our INR 250cr+ estimate.
  • Alongside the BEC business, Nesco’s foods business has also seen significant recovery led by footfalls from the BEC. Independent of BEC also, Nesco Foods is growing significantly on its own.
  • Nesco is on track to earn PAT of INR 320cr+ for FY24, suggesting that at the current market cap of INR 4250cr, it is valued attractively at 13x P/E.

Kolte Patil: Strong Q4FY23 In Line With The Optimistic Expectations

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Kolte Patil delivered on the optimistic expectations for Q4FY23 which led to a stellar close for FY23 with all-time-high pre-sales and robust deliveries.
  • Its flagship project, Life Republic, was at an inflection point as outlined in our original thesis. It contributed immensely in FY23 and is now all set for accelerated growth.
  • Despite high base of FY23, Kolte Patil is all set to post a strong FY24 with 25% pre-sales growth, led by new launches and strong sustenance sales.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Polycab India , LIC Housing Finance, Fosun International and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped
  • LICHF: Q4FY23 Earnings Better than Expected; Asset Quality Worsened Optically But Nothing Worrisome
  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Vedanta Resources

NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped

By Brian Freitas

  • NSE Indices have started a market consultation on dropping stocks that are not a part of the Futures & Options segment from the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)
  • This will be done in two phases with a weight reduction for non-F&O stocks in June and deletion from the index in September.
  • That will result in 11 inclusions to the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September and bring in a lot of flow to the stocks.

LICHF: Q4FY23 Earnings Better than Expected; Asset Quality Worsened Optically But Nothing Worrisome

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • LICHF reported a strong Q4FY23 with a PAT of INR 1180cr. This takes the FY23 PAT to INR 2891cr, well above our estimate of INR 2700cr.
  • Asset quality worsened as Stage 2 assets increased to 5.25% vs 3.92%. However, this is temporary due to one-off interest rate hike related technical issues in EMI payments.
  • LICHF has guided for a strong FY24, led by margin expansion and AUM growth. As credit costs remain benign, profitability should jump significantly.

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Zomato, Azure Power Global Ltd, Multi Commodity Exchange India, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN) | The Big Picture
  • Morning Views Asia: Azure Power Global Ltd
  • MCX Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Specialty Business Drove Q4 Revenue; Propose to Acquire 100% of Taro

Zomato (ZOMATO IN) | The Big Picture

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • The street is excited about Zomato (ZOMATO IN) ‘s profitability, we are not.
  • Zomato’s execution is strong, driving improved profitability despite the margin-dilutive Gold offering.
  • Caution warranted due to market dynamics: slow growth, margin pressure, and increased competition.

Morning Views Asia: Azure Power Global Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


MCX Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Multi Commodity Exchange India (MCX IN) has been having troubles at the bottom-line due to transaction fees, delay of commodity derivatives platform, etc. which is not totally within its control.  
  • However what warrants attention is the investment yield that has dropped considerably in FY22, coupled with the non-traceable interest income from the bank deposits, which has affected the margins.
  • Other forensic takeaways include no-provisioning of doubtful debts and misstatement of cash flows.

Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Specialty Business Drove Q4 Revenue; Propose to Acquire 100% of Taro

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) recorded 14% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY23, driven by 21% growth in U.S. formulation business. Adjusted net profit for Q4FY23 was INR21.6B, up 36% YoY.
  • Global specialty business continues to maintain strong momentum. Adjusted for milestone received, global specialty contributed 18% of Q4FY23 overall sales and grew 28% YoY to $244M.
  • Sun Pharma has proposed to acquire the remaining stake in Taro Pharmaceutical for a purchase price of $38 per share in cash. Management expects high single-digit revenue growth in FY24.

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Daily Brief India: Tata Motors Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan, Tata Motors ADR

Morning Views Asia: Meituan, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Rajshree Polypack and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • RPPL: Q4 Weaker than Expected But On Track for Strong Earnings Growth Through FY25

RPPL: Q4 Weaker than Expected But On Track for Strong Earnings Growth Through FY25

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Rajshree Polypack’s (RPPL’s) Q4FY23 came in weaker than expected on both the sales volume and the margins front. Higher depreciation and interest costs led by capex further dampened the profitability.
  • However, RPPL is executing well on its revenue growth targets led by regular capex led investments. It is on track to do INR 450cr revenues by FY25.
  • RPPL has potential to post a PAT of INR 30cr+ by FY25, suggesting that RPPL is available at around 6x P/E on a base of FY25E PAT.

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Daily Brief India: Bank Of Baroda, Tata Motors Ltd, Golden Eagle Retail and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality
  • Tata Motors – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 26 May 2023

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality

By Victor Galliano

  • We add value play Bank of Baroda to the peer group, and to our buy list; we also add liquidity and funding screens and a PEG ratio valuation metric
  • We keep HDFC Bank as our higher quality bank, with its strong balance sheet, especially on NPA coverage, and further positive momentum from the upcoming HDFC merger
  • We remain negative on State Bank of India, and we are also cautious on ICICI Bank; Axis bank remains a name to watch, although valuations are far from compelling

Tata Motors – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Tata Motors’ ESG as “Adequate”, with “Adequate” Governance and Social pillars, while its Environmental pillar is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Weekly Wrap – 26 May 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lenovo
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Lifestyle International Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…


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Daily Brief India: LTIMindtree, ABM Investama, ABB India Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications
  • Asia HY Trade Book – May 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB, SIEM, HAVELLS, POLYCAB

HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


Asia HY Trade Book – May 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for May 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB, SIEM, HAVELLS, POLYCAB

By Pranav Bhavsar


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