India

• We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
• The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations and some stocks have seen large price moves over the last couple of weeks.
• Active managers would have started realigning their portfolios and that could continue for a couple of weeks. Unwind long positions into strength.

• Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) is a technology-driven affordable housing finance company (HFC) focused on first-time homebuyers in low and middle-income groups. 
• We believe access to finance is more relevant rather than quick TAT and hence question the relevance of wanting to be the fastest provider.
• Considering the fading competitive advantage, borrower profile and segment dynamics, HOMEFIRS may be the fastest but not necessarily the safest.

• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
• The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
• The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Bharat Petroleum Corp
• Meituan
• Pertamina Geothermal Energy

• What sets HDFC Bank apart from peers is stability, strength in profit, ROA, NPLs, NIM
• Peers see volatile, high NPL ratios, where HDFC Bank may see NPLs at less than 1% soon
• Amalgamation HDFC into HDFC Bank can see more interest, supported by fundamentals 

• Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) is a NBFC based in India, specializing in providing financial services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the informal and semi-formal sectors. 
• The focus on in-house sourcing, collection, and risk management aids in maintaining strong asset quality.
• In terms of valuations, FIVESTAR trades at a premium. However, considering its competitive moat and growth potential, any available opportunities should be capitalized upon.

• An interview with Deepak Parekh set a bunch of stocks on fire. Then came the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) exchange announcement that said the dates were still tentative.
• Indications are that the merger could be effective 1 July and HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)‘s last trading day would be 13 July.
• The merger will have an impact on both HDFC stocks and on other stocks that could be added to the NIFTY Index, NIFTYJR INDEX and SENSEX Index.

• Demand for green hydrogen – or hydrogen that is generated by renewable energy – is expected to climb in the coming years as governments push for a cleaner future.
• Newtrace, a climate tech firm based in India, is developing a new type of electrolyzer, which is used to create green hydrogen from renewable electricity.
• The company says its electrolyzers have lower costs and higher efficiency than what is commonly used in the market.

• IdeaForge Technology Limited (1475641D IN)‘s IPO opens for subscription this week. 
• The company is said to be the market leader in manufacturing of drones, an industry that is expected to grow rapidly in the next five years.
• However, there are several forensic takeaways that include disclosure errs relating to litigations, treatment of R&D, cash generation, etc.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Azure Power Global Ltd
• Sino-Ocean Service

• Rajiv Kaul had it all. By 2008, he had won the proverbial game of life.
• Armed with an engineering degree from BIT Mesra and an MBA from XLRI Jamshedpur, Rajiv joined Microsoft in 1992 and quickly rose the ranks to become its youngest managing director at the age of 33.
• After a stint of 14 years, Rajiv left the comfort and familiarity of Microsoft for the shores of Private Equity.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Central China Securities
• UPL Ltd

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. China Jinmao Holdings
2. Lifestyle International Holdings
3. Geely Auto
4. First Pacific Co
5. Tata Motors Ltd

and more…

• Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.
• Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.
• The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.

• KFin Technologies (1804170D IN) was listed on 29th Dec 2022, when it raised around US$180m in its India IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 24th Jun 2023.
• KFin Technology (KFin) is a technology driven financial services platform providing comprehensive services and solutions to the capital markets ecosystem.
• Coming up for six-month expiry is General Atlantic (the Promoter) and other pre-IPO shareholders. The Promoter had been the sole selling shareholder in the IPO.

• Western Carriers (1489172D IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial and Kotak. 
• The firm provides multi-modal logistics services which include road, railway, ocean/coastal/river and air logistics services. 
• It also provides chartering services to overseas destinations, stevedoring services at Indian ports and coastal movement of cargo within India. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• ENN Natural Gas
• Vedanta Resources

• Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.
• The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.
• In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

• Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) (TT) is looking to raise around US$600m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers. 
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about valuations.

• Ask Automotive (7175293Z IN) is looking to raise about US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis Capital, IIFL Securities, ICICI Securities and JM Financial.
• ASK Automotive is the largest manufacturer of brake-shoe and advanced braking (AB) systems for two-wheelers (2W) in India, according to CRISIL. 
• The company has been supplying safety systems and critical engineering solutions for more than three decades with in-house designing, developing and manufacturing capabilities. 

• Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN) plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN). 
• We have covered one of the past deals in HDFC AMC Placement/OFS – Forced to Sell, but It’s Not the Best of Times to Be Selling or Buying.
• In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

• Erstwhile Citibank India’s retail customers are high-income, high spending and demand excellent customer service
• In FY2022, as per the latest data, Axis Bank has the dubious distinction of becoming the customer complaints market leader in private sector banking
• If Axis Bank does not improve its customer service, erstwhile Citibank’s lucrative retail customers will flee to competitors