India

In today’s briefing:

IGI (India) IPO – Unique Exposure but Questionable Acquisition, and 4x Returns for PE in 18 Months
Sai Life Sciences IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special
Star Agriwarehousing and Collateral Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

IGI (India) IPO – Unique Exposure but Questionable Acquisition, and 4x Returns for PE in 18 Months

International Gemmological Institute (India) Limited (IGII) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
In this note, we will look at the company’s past performance and talk about the IPO valuations.

Sai Life Sciences IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) is looking to raise up to US$360m in its upcoming India IPO.
Sai Life Sciences is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation providing end-to-end services across drug discovery, development and manufacturing value-chain, for small to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

By Gaudenz Schneider

Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today’s opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President’s crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.

Star Agriwarehousing and Collateral Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Star Agriwarehousing and Collateral Management Ltd (0207140D IN) (SACM) is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are JMFin, Ambit, Equirius.
SACM is a technology-led integrated agricultural value-chain services platform that provides services such as procurement, trade facilitation, warehousing, collateral management, financing solutions, a digital marketplace, and data services.
According to the F&S report, the company was the largest by revenue and the most profitable technology-led integrated value chain services platform during the FY22 to FY24.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ReNew Energy
In the US, inflation data was benign and supported expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this month. The CPI inflation came in at 2.7% y-o-y in November (2.7% e / 2.6% p), while the core CPI inflation stood at 3.3% (3.3% e / 3.3% p).
US Treasury sold off across the curve, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively.

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Dec 12

Daily Brief India: Zomato, LG Electronics India, SAI Life Sciences, Vishal Mega Mart, Inventurus Knowledge Solutions and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 38 Changes; 65% Turnover; US$1.7bn Trade
LG Electronics India: IPO Details & Index Entry Timing
Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO – Portfolio Expansion and Increased Production Capacity to Drive Growth
Vishal Mega Mart IPO- Forensic Analysis
Inventurus Pre-IPO – Accelerating Growth with Major Aquity Acquisition

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 38 Changes; 65% Turnover; US$1.7bn Trade

There are 19 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. All names are exactly in line with our forecast.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 72.7bn (US$857m). There are 18 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes even after the end of the review period. There could be further upside heading into year-end and implementation of the changes.

LG Electronics India: IPO Details & Index Entry Timing

LG Electronics India (123D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 101.8m shares at a valuation of around US$12-13bn and raising around US$1.8bn in its IPO.
The draft RHP was filed on 6 December, so the IPO could complete in the first quarter of 2025.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances could commence in June/September next year depending on when the stock lists.

Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO – Portfolio Expansion and Increased Production Capacity to Drive Growth

By Akshat Shah

SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) is looking to raise up to US$360m in its upcoming India IPO.
Sai Life Sciences is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation providing end-to-end services across drug discovery, development and manufacturing value-chain, for small to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Vishal Mega Mart IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Vishal Mega Mart (1620871D IN) IPO worth INR 80 bn is about to open this week. The IPO constitutes entirely of OFS.
The company is one of the top 3 offline first retailers, the most diversified retailers and caters to middle income and lower income group, largely in Tier 2 locations.
As far as forensics are concerned, one must pay attention to exorbitantly high attrition levels, rising related party transactions, few puzzling line items noticed in books, etc.

Inventurus Pre-IPO – Accelerating Growth with Major Aquity Acquisition

By Nicholas Tan

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) is looking to raise up to US$295m in its upcoming India IPO.
IKS is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia. It is a one-stop shop designed to handle physicians administrative tasks.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Dec 11

Daily Brief India: Vishal Mega Mart, EAAA India Alternatives Ltd, Popular Vehicles and Services, Innova Captab, SAI Life Sciences and more

In today’s briefing:

Vishal Mega Mart IPO: IPO Details & Index Entry Timing
EAAA India Alternatives Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
The Beat Ideas: Popular Vehicles & Services, Cheapest Among Dealership Business
The Beat Ideas: Innova Captab Ltd, Jammu Capex Kicker, Margin Expansion
SAI Life Sciences IPO- Growing and Profitable Business; Aggressive Pricing Limits Upside Potential

Vishal Mega Mart IPO: IPO Details & Index Entry Timing

Vishal Mega Mart (1620871D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling INR 80bn (US$943m) of stock at a valuation of INR 352bn (US$4.15bn).
Anchor allocations were completed on 10 December, the IPO opens today, and the stock is expected to start trading on 18 December. Grey market premium is around 25%.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances should take place in May and June 2025.

EAAA India Alternatives Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

EAAA India Alternatives Ltd (1619210D IN) (EAAA) is planning to raise about US$177m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Axis Capital, Jefferies, Motilal Oswal, Nuvama.
EAAA is a fund management house with a diversified, multi-strategy platform in large, under-tapped, and fast-growing alternative asset classes, focusing on providing income and yield solutions to its clients.
As per CARE report, EAAA is one of the leading alternatives platforms in India, in terms of assets under management (AUM) of INR572.62bn (US$6.7bn) as of Sept 24.

The Beat Ideas: Popular Vehicles & Services, Cheapest Among Dealership Business

Popular Vehicles and Services (PVSL IN) are available at a 50% discount since IPO and available at 25%
PVSL plans to enter two new states by June 2025 and open multiple new facilities, including a NEXA Studio and service centers in Maharashtra and Kerala.
PVSL’s focus on geographic expansion, high-margin segments, and inventory normalization enhances its growth potential, making it a compelling value play with room for significant re-rating in the near future.

The Beat Ideas: Innova Captab Ltd, Jammu Capex Kicker, Margin Expansion

Innova Captab (1605221D IN)’s New Jammu facility to be commercialized by Q3 FY25, expanding capacity and product range.
Strong order pipeline, diversified segments (CDMO, branded generics), and high-margin segments to drive profitability.
Aiming for 25-30% revenue CAGR and 4-5% margin expansion in upcoming years.

SAI Life Sciences IPO- Growing and Profitable Business; Aggressive Pricing Limits Upside Potential

By Tina Banerjee

The IPO of SAI Life Sciences, a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization, is scheduled to open on December 11. The IPO consists of fresh issue as well as OFS.
Out of the fresh issue of proceeds, the company intends to use INR7.2B for repayment/prepayment of outstanding borrowings. As of September 30, 2024, total outstanding borrowing stands at INR7.6B.
We have high conviction on the growth prospect of SAI Life Sciences. Considering FY25 annualized post-IPO EPS of INR2.69, the company seeks a P/E valuation of 186.9–203.8x.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief India: Vishal Mega Mart, LG Electronics India, Trent Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Crompton Greaves and more

In today’s briefing:

Vishal Mega Mart IPO – Showcasing the Wrong Peers, Somewhat Limited Upside
LG Electronics India IPO Preview
Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | LGD Can Be the Next Catalyst
Farmers Pull Off A Price Hike In India Amid Favorable External Trend
LG Electronics India Pre-IPO Tearsheet
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

Vishal Mega Mart IPO – Showcasing the Wrong Peers, Somewhat Limited Upside

Vishal Mega Mart is planning to raise around US$950m through its upcoming IPO in India.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

LG Electronics India IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

LG Electronics India is getting ready to complete an IPO in India in the next several months. The IPO offering size is expected to be about US$1.8 billion.
LG Electronics (066570 KS) plans to sell 101.8 million shares, accounting for about 15% of the post-offer paid up equity capital shares of LG Electronics India.
If LGEI is valued at US$13 billion, then an 85% of this stake would be worth US$11.1 billion, which would be worth more than LG Electronics’s own market cap.

Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | LGD Can Be the Next Catalyst

By Pranav Bhavsar

Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is best positioned to capitalize on the growing market for lab-grown diamonds (LGD) and alter its business growth trajectory.
LGD disruptions seen in other markets are unlikely to be seen in India due to the positioning of Jewellery in Household asset allocation.
We also believe that Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) LGD potential is underrated while the impact on Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) is overrated.

Farmers Pull Off A Price Hike In India Amid Favorable External Trend

By Vinod Nedumudy

NR prices stage a comeback but then undergo correction
Rubber Board convenes series of producer meets to tackle challenges
Rubber Board proposes a fee to issue NOC to import NR

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO Tearsheet

LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India IPO. The deal will be run by MS, JPM, Axis, BofA and Citi.
LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
LGEI has been the number one player in this industry for 13 consecutive years (CY11-CY23) as per the value market share in the offline channel in India, as per Redseer.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.

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Dec 09

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

By Sankalp Singh

Short-Date IVs reprice higher as active contract rolls over to 12.12.2024 expiry. Elevated risk-premia justified as contracts capture RBI rate decision & U.S. NFP event risks.
Re-Pricing of front-end IVs has kicked Vol term-structure into Backwardation. Monthly & Quarterly IVs remain unchanged. Current Vol curve shape is at odds with improving sentiment in underlying Index.
Strategic Implications: (1) Avoid Short Gamma exposure. (2) Continue allocation to Short Vega + Short Smile structures. (3) Look for Nifty50 trading range to stabilize as trigger for Skew harvesting.

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Dec 06

Daily Brief India: Varun Beverages , Vishal Mega Mart, Bombay Stock Exchange, Aditya Infotech Ltd, GMR Hyderabad International Airport and more

In today’s briefing:

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?
Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Positives – One-Stop Shop
Riding the Derivatives Wave: Can BSE Seize the Opportunity Presented by SEBI’s Circular?
Aditya Infotech Pre-IPO – Expanding Channel Network and Increased Production Capacity to Drive Sales
Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Negatives – No Online Presence, PE Overhang
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in December.
We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.

Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Positives – One-Stop Shop

Vishal Mega Mart is planning to raise around US$950m through its upcoming IPO in India.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Riding the Derivatives Wave: Can BSE Seize the Opportunity Presented by SEBI’s Circular?

Implementation of SEBI’s new F&O circular to remove weekly option contracts, is expected to significantly impact BSE’s market share in derivatives.
The new F&O circular is anticipated to considerably affect BSE’s topline and bottom line. Management believes the initiatives will ultimately enhance market efficiency and benefit investors.
With removal of weekly contracts, it is expected that volumes will increase in existing contracts, which will benefit more to BSE vs NSE.

Aditya Infotech Pre-IPO – Expanding Channel Network and Increased Production Capacity to Drive Sales

By Akshat Shah

Aditya Infotech Ltd (6596564Z IN) is looking to raise about US$155m in its upcoming India IPO.
Aditya Infotech is a CCTV/video surveillance provider offering a range of advanced video security and surveillance products, technologies and solutions for enterprise and consumer segments under its CP PLUS brand.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Negatives – No Online Presence, PE Overhang

Vishal Mega Mart is planning to raise around US$950m through its upcoming IPO in India.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
In this note, we talk about the not-so-good aspects of the deal.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, Rakuten Group
In the US, the ISM services index fell to 52.1 (55.7 e / 56.0 p). This was the slowest pace in three months, albeit the gauge remained in expansion territory for the ninth month this year. Meanwhile, the November (final) S&P services PMI rose to 56.0 (55.0 p), albeit below the preliminary estimate of 57.0.
The composite PMI climbed to 54.9 (54.1 p). Separately, the ADP employment survey showed that private sector job growth slowed to 146 k (150 k e / 184 k revised p).

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Dec 05

Daily Brief India: Zomato, Rain Industries, Aegis Logistics and more

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Inflows for Zomato and Jiofin in Dec 24 and Mar 25
The Beat Ideas: Rain Industries Ltd Analysis, A Cycle Play
2025 High Conviction Idea:Aegis Logistics-A Decade Track Record of 25% Growth in Profits & Dividends

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Inflows for Zomato and Jiofin in Dec 24 and Mar 25

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) could see index inflows during the December 2024 rebalance and March 2025 rebalance.

The Beat Ideas: Rain Industries Ltd Analysis, A Cycle Play

Rain Industries (RINDL IN) is the largest player of CTP and 2nd largest player of CPC in the world delivering loss due to downcycle in industry.
CAQM enabled the import of GPC and CPC improved the pricing and demand further and also has created an opportunity for Rain Industries to ramp up its SEZ plant.
Rain Industries is pivoting to future-ready sectors like EVs and batteries while addressing cyclical challenges. Focused debt reduction and strategic investments enhance its long-term growth potential despite near-term pressures.

2025 High Conviction Idea:Aegis Logistics-A Decade Track Record of 25% Growth in Profits & Dividends

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Aegis Logistics is India’s leading logistics player in Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG/Propane) and Chemicals.
It has demonstrated a stellar track record over past decade, delivering a 25% CAGR in EBITDA and Net profit, along with a 28% CAGR in dividend payouts.
Given the strength of its partnership with Vopak and various capital expenditure lined up in medium term, it should continue to deliver robust operational and financial performance.

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Dec 03

Daily Brief India: Persistent Systems, CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia), Bank Of Baroda, Quess Corp Ltd, Mouri Tech Limited and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade
Strategic Decision by MapMyIndia: Segregating B2C and B2B Businesses – A Detailed Analysis
Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps
Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?
Mouri Tech Pre-IPO – Growth Slowing, Customers and Employee Numbers Declining

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade

There could be 19 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. There are some stocks from the new F&O inclusions.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m).
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of July. The pace picked up over the last month as we neared the end of the review period.

Strategic Decision by MapMyIndia: Segregating B2C and B2B Businesses – A Detailed Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

MapmyIndia decided to hive off its B2C business to a promoter entity which will be funded and backed by the current listed entity.
Hiving off loss-making business will lead to margin improvement for the listed entity but will increase the cash burn to fund loss-making business
Departure of current CEO, taking funding from listed entity to fund this loss-making business where Promoter has the stake raises corporate governance issues.

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

By Victor Galliano

Our positive focus remains on three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Bandhan, Baroda and Union Bank of India (UBI); we stay negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
Bandhan has its NPL challenges, but its pre-provision returns have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains our favourite and UBI has delivered better profitability and credit quality
Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns continue to erode; ICICI is on premium valuations and we expect credit costs to go higher

Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Quess Corp Ltd (QUESS IN) will spinoff into 3 different companies, each representing a business vertical of its consolidated operations. All three companies are expected to be listed during Q1FY26.
It has received approval from the stock exchanges and is now awaiting the go ahead from National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT).
Improving business performance and sum-of-the-parts valuation of the three separate listed businesses indicate potential upside from the current valuation.

Mouri Tech Pre-IPO – Growth Slowing, Customers and Employee Numbers Declining

By Rosita Fernandes

Mouri Tech Limited (MT IN) is planning to raise about US$179m through its upcoming IPO in India. It is a provider of IT solutions, focusing on (iERP) and digital transformation services.
Mouri Tech operates in four main segments: iERP solutions, enterprise digital transformation, infrastructure services, and program management. Its iERP offerings include both on-premise and cloud-based systems.
The digital transformation services help organizations automate and modernize their processes. The infrastructure services include cloud engineering and cybersecurity solutions.

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Dec 02

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

In today’s briefing:

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.
Higher NR Prices Erode Profits Of Indian Tire Majors In Q2 FY25

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.

By Sankalp Singh

IV PercentRank metrics indicate middle-of-the-range Risk Premia. “High & Down” vol-state persists for the Vol Regime-Switching model.
Front-End IVs battered as Weekly options expire prior to Friday’s tier-1 event risks. IVs marked down -3.6 vols.
IV Term-Structure shifts drastically – from Backwardation to Kinked-Shape. Year-end calendar effects causing Vol-surface distortions.

Higher NR Prices Erode Profits Of Indian Tire Majors In Q2 FY25

By Vinod Nedumudy

Q2 FY 2025 sees NR prices hitting all-time high of INR 247/kg
Revenue of MRF, Apollo and CEAT goes up YoY; of JK Tyre dips
Tire prices hiked to mitigate impact of NR price rises

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Dec 01

Daily Brief India: Aster DM Healthcare Ltd, Bajaj Finance Ltd and more