India

• Coforge (COFORGE IN) is looking to raise around US$386m in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
• In an announcement released on Saturday, Coforge had mentioned its board’s approval to raise up to INR32bn via a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 9.1%.
• The deal would be a large one to digest at 14 days of three month ADV. That being said, the company’s last selldown did well.

• In Q3FY24, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) reported revenue of INR 335Bn, a growth of 14.6% YoY on the back of higher realization and volume.
• EBITDA margin expanded 210bps YoY to 12.3% as higher volume, favorable commodity price played a role in tandem.
• The company is planning 2x increase in its annual production capacity to about 4Mn by 2030-31. Capacity expansion plans augur well for the company in medium to long term.

• Sudden resignation of Ravi Narayanan Group-Head in charge of retail branches, retail liabilities and third party products as he wishes to pursue entrepreneurship.
• Possible explanation is that the bank like other banks is finding it difficult to raise retail deposits and pressure is building up on senior management
• Bank has a high LDR and reportedly the banking regulator is demanding the bank to lower its LDR. This will have consequences on future loan growth or on NIM

• Rain Industries (RINDL IN) is one of the global leaders in coal tar pitch and calcined petroleum coke. The company also engages in cement manufacturing.
• The company has been facing heat lately especially business related. The fact that there are goodwill impairments, reversal of DTA and costly refinancing puts Rain in a worrying shape.
• The company also has seen impairment in fixed assets especially the CWIP. The company also faces high liability for its DB plan in Germany.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
• MGM China Holdings

• Promoters in Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSLAMC IN) are looking to raise US$189m via an offer for sale (OFS). This assumes that the over-allotment option is exercised.
• This appears to be done in a bid to meet SEBI’s 75% free-float requirement for listed firms in India. .
• News of the selldown had surfaced a week earlier leading to a correction in share price. As such, we would argue that the deal here is well flagged

• Edelweiss Financial Services (“Edelweiss”) reported a steady Q3FY24 led by robust profitability from across businesses except insurance, which is in gestation phase. All its businesses are scaling up well.
• Edelweiss’ credit business reported good traction in co-lending. 80% and 32% of the disbursals in the NBFC and the HFC businesses, respectively, came from co-lending. 
• Within the asset management vertical, the mutual fund business is growing well with 23% YoY growth in overall AUM and 47% YoY growth in equity AUM.

• Baazar Style Retail (1635104D IN) is the fastest growing value retailer in eastern and north- eastern India, with market leadership in West Bengal, Odisha, and Assam.
• The proposed IPO is a combination of fresh issue of equity shares worth INR1,850M and OFS of up to 16.9M equity shares by promoter group entities and other selling shareholders. 
• The company may consider raising INR370M in a pre-IPO placement round. If the pre-IPO placement is undertaken, the amount raised from such placement will be reduced from the fresh issue.

• Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”) has been seeing strong growth across all its businesses. Wealth management business is scaling up well. Capital markets business continues to benefit from the upbeat cycle.
• The asset management business is in its infancy but is scaling up well. Nuvama launched a new real estate fund via a 50:50 JV with Cushman & Wakefield.
• Given wealth management is still nascent in India; the growth potential is huge for Nuvama. At the current valuation, an investment in Nuvama has potential to more than triple.

• Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).
• The deal doesn’t appear to be well-flagged although it could be part of Tata Sons’ recent moves to avoid an RBI mandated listing next year.
• In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• ICICI Securities Shareholders will consider delisting proposal at the end of March-24 which will decide its fate
• Swap Ratio based on current prices offers limited downside for I-Sec Shareholders if delisting goes through.
• There could be potential upside of 20% if delisting fails.

• In Q3FY24, Larsen & Toubro (LT IN) witnessed order inflow of INR 760bn (up 25% YoY) bolstering the order book to INR 4.7tn at the end of December 2023.
• Margins continued to remain under pressure in 9MFY24 due to cost pressures in legacy jobs.
• Strong project execution and healthy order book are expected to drive future growth with margins reviving after bottoming out.

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• On the IPO front, Hong Kong appears to be heading towards its first US$100m+ IPO for the year.
• For placements, after a flurry of placements in the prior week, past week was relatively quiet with only the US$2bn ITC Ltd (ITC IN) block.

• Ceigall India (1605242D IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by IIFL Securities, JM Financial and ICICI Securities.
• Ceigall India is an infrastructure construction company with experience in undertaking specialized structural work such as elevated roads, flyovers, bridges, railway over bridges, tunnels, highways, expressways and runways. 
• Its principal business operations are broadly divided into EPC and hybrid annuity model (HAM) projects, which are spread across ten states in India.

• In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.
• As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index but there is room for these names to change during the remainder of the reference period.
• Separately, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and six ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.

• Recent RBI and SEBI actions unveil irregularities in JM Financial (JM IN) Products IPO financing, exposing risks in NBFC-led subscriptions.
• Ensuring market integrity and investor protection, regulatory scrutiny highlights governance lapses, urging transparency and accountability.
• Prompts investor caution, demanding rigorous scrutiny of financial intermediaries, and reinforcing the need for robust regulatory oversight.

• The NIFTY Index this week suddenly stopped its rally and started to correct.
• This week should close down and the next week may be also down, but if it is the odds are great for a LONG trade.
• Re-Enter the rally at prices between 21800 and 21150, this week or the next.

• We screen our coverage universe for earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental longs.
• Stocks discussed include TVS Motor (TVSL IN), Nestle India (NEST IN), and Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) 
• TVSL EVs could surprise, NEST offers the right safety in the current environment, and for HONASA there is a possibility of turning around. 

• In Feb 2024,  BAT’s management stated that they were reviewing their stake in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).  The news of a possible selldown by BAT was leaked again earlier today.
• BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.
• In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China South City
• Greenko Energy Holdings
• Road King Infrastructure

• Gopal Snacks (1592789D IN) IPO worth INR 6.5 bn is live on the bourses. 
• The company is a prominent snacks manufacturer in India, especially in the state of Gujarat. It boasts one of the highest fixed asset turnover ratio and high ROCEs. 
• On the flipside, caution must remain on its dull revenue growth post F22 and on its related party transactions, especially with promoter companies.

• Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
• In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been the most successful bank in India over the last two decades, delivering best-in-class performance consistently; Things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd.
• The negatives outweigh the positives in the near-term from the merger; the synergies, which are significant, are long-term in nature and hence would take time to play out.
• We remain long-term believers, but it is a “Short” in the short-term as we expect further -20% correction in valuations