India

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 14 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 7 could see passive outflows in May.

• SEBI extends cross-margining discounts to correlated assets with different maturities – Dispersion trading & vol arb strategies to benefit. 
• In spite of upcoming tier-1 event risks the vol surface has flattened  dramatically. Current IV levels are supportive of a continued “High & Down” vol state.
• Curve steepening seen in Nifty50 IVs. Unusual kinked-shaped in BankNifty term structure has normalized – vol curve now has a uniform orientation.

• GBL was touted as a turnaround story as few investors have shown faith by infusing the funds for further expansion
• In a rare instance, one of the promoter member fraudlently took the loan of 45 crores in the name of the company
• What lies ahead is the case possible fund diversion and promoter family feud

• RBI has barred Kotak Bank from expanding its digital business and credit card issuance
• Rather than earnings damage (max -10%) there is more reputational damage to the bank taking away premium valuations it used to command
• The way ahead lies for the bank is the path of moderate growth 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Oil And Gas
• Continuum Green Energy
• Indika Energy

• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• SK Hynix
• Vedanta Resources

• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Reliance Industries

• The story of Hero is the story of persistence, collaboration and achieving goals that many would have regarded as impossible.
• From its humble roots of selling bicycles in 1956 Ludhiana Punjab, to becoming the world’s largest two wheeler company is an extraordinary feat.

• Maintaining the momentum, protecting its market share and setting sights towards ‘Future of Mobility’ is something special.

• Mr. Yashish Dahiya is an impatient man. In one of the interviews with The Ken, he narrated a story of how while in college he used to run home to Noida every Friday and back to college on a Monday morning (both 30kms in one direction) as he found public buses too slow for his liking.
• Mr. Dahiya, is also persistent and doesn’t give up easy – he is one of the few people in the world who has completed the grueling Ironman triathlon – an intense race that consists of swimming, bicycle ride and a marathon all raced in that order – widely considered one of the most difficult one-day sporting events in the world.
• It’s these qualities of impatience, persistence and continuously improving oneself that can be found in the business of PolicyBazaar or PBFinTech, the name of the parent company applying for IPO.

• As you set out for Ithaka hope your road is a long one, full of adventure, full of discovery.
• These are the first few lines to the poem ‘Ithaka’ written by C.P Cavafy .
• This is the poem, then shared by the daughter of founder and CEO, Falguni Nayar, that led to the birth of Nykaa.

• Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying & increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.
• Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode – yet.
• BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual “kink-in-the-curve”. Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT
• Vedanta Resources

• Marksans Pharma (MRKS IN) has done well in recent years, growing at 15.2% on a 5Y CAGR.  
• The company has a good balance sheet, strong cash generation and also witnessed a recent uptick on the margins side. UK business especially has been the cash cow.
• However, there are few impairment indicators; few subsidiaries are not audited while bad debts have appeared in the books lately. Company also has few disclosure issues.

• Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$600m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
• AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
• In this note, we look at the updates from the company’s recent filings.

• Canara Bank has seen stunning profit expansion over the past several years
• Lower NPLs can drive lower credit costs to support profit expansion further
• ROE moved from 11.7% to 17.3% over the past several years