Category

Healthcare

Jul 13
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Eisai Co Ltd, S&P 500, Huayiwang Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Eisai Co (4523 JP): Trying Another Luck for Alzheimer’s Disease; Strengthening Presence in Oncology
  • U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care
  • Pre-IPO Huayiwang Technology – The Business Model Is Reasonable, but There Are Also Challenges

Eisai Co (4523 JP): Trying Another Luck for Alzheimer’s Disease; Strengthening Presence in Oncology

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has been granted priority review by the FDA for its second Alzheimer’s disease drug candidate, lecanemab. Approval is expected in Q1 2023.
  • Lecanemab could become the first anti-amyloid antibody to obtain full approval for Alzheimer’s disease in the U.S. Eisai is aiming for submission of lecanemab in Japan and EU this fiscal.   
  • Anticancer agent Lenvima is the largest selling drug of Eisai. Revenue from Lenvima increased 44% in FY22. The drug has taken top share in hepatocellular carcinoma market.

U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
  • Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.
  • We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.

Pre-IPO Huayiwang Technology – The Business Model Is Reasonable, but There Are Also Challenges

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Huayiwang Technology (1985554D HK) is strong in its digital medical education solutions, which is the cornerstone business for the continuous expansion of other solution offerings and ecosystem.
  • HUAYIWANG charges service fees mainly from pharmaceutical companies, which could be a more sustainable profit model than charging from patients directly.
  • However, the increasing competition and potential risk of losing medical professionals could shake the foundations of HUAYIWANG’s business. 

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Jul 12
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Chugai Pharmaceutical, Cigna Corp, Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Rebalance: End-July Rebal Is $3.5bn One-Way – Some Big Sell Names
  • Blue Tower Asset Management Q2 2022 Commentary
  • MicroPort MedBot (2252.HK)- Lack an “anchor” for Valuation Due to Uncertainties in Commercialization

TOPIX Rebalance: End-July Rebal Is $3.5bn One-Way – Some Big Sell Names

By Travis Lundy

Blue Tower Asset Management Q2 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • Blue Tower Asset Management provides portfolio management services to individuals, financial advisers, and institutions.
  • With Q2 2022, the Blue Tower Global Value strategy composite returned 12.09% net of fees in the second quarter (12.41% gross) against a decline of -15.66% in the MSCI ACWI index.
  • The sanctions on Russian investments have dramatically increased the internal dispersion of our composite performance results.
  •  

MicroPort MedBot (2252.HK)- Lack an “anchor” for Valuation Due to Uncertainties in Commercialization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • To achieve massive sales expansion, surgical robots and consumables have to reduce price largely to enter NRDL reimbursement. This is at odds with expectations that they will generate high profits.
  • The actual market share gained and revenue generated by Medbot may fall far short of expectations, resulting in an inability to cover years of rapid growth in R&D/selling/administrative expenses.
  • Due to uncertainties on commercialization and profitability outlook, Medbot lacks an “anchor” for valuation.The large fluctuation in share price would continue. Surgical robots are not a good business for now.

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Jul 11
0

Health Care: Akeso Biopharma Inc, Lotus Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook
  • Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Ready for Next Phase of Growth with New Ownership and Product Launch

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The current stock price is not high. Akeso is reluctant to diluting its shareholders too much. So, it plans to raise just HK$576.65 million, which won’t bring any fundamental change.
  • Akeso (9926 HK)’s conservative management style, development mode, low cash balance and FDA’s “Guidance” on bispecific antibodies would limit the Company’s future development pace, commercialization, internationalization and valuation expansion prospects. 
  • We do not think Akeso is attractive at present, unless the Company could hit some big license-out deals, or IPO on SSE STAR Market to secure enough funds in advance. 

Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Ready for Next Phase of Growth with New Ownership and Product Launch

By Tina Banerjee

  • Aztiq and Innobic have formally become the leading shareholder of  Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT), with the controlling stake of 51%. New ownership will accelerate the growth and expansion of Lotus.
  • Lotus has created a niche for itself through its focus on oral oncology drug. Launch of Lenalidomide in 14 European countries drove 31% q/q growth in export revenue in Q1.
  • Continued strong uptake of the company’s newly acquired drug Cialis in Taiwan and bevacizumab biosimilar launch in Korea and Taiwan should boost its Asian business revenue.

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Jul 10
0

Health Care: Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Paramount Bed (7817 JP): Record High Revenue Clocked in FY22; New Management Target Announced

Paramount Bed (7817 JP): Record High Revenue Clocked in FY22; New Management Target Announced

By Tina Banerjee

  • Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) announced record high sales in FY22, driven by strong demand of hospital beds and achieved management target two year ahead of plan.
  • While near-term challenges including high input cost and semiconductor supply shortage negatively impact FY23 performance, Paramount aims to achieve 33% revenue growth and 50bps operating margin expansion during FY22–27.   
  • Paramount is a strong play on COVID recovery. The shares gained 15% since I published bullish note on the company on January 17, 2022. More stream is still left.   

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Jul 09
0

Health Care: Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): 2022 Started On a Weak Note; Lower ASP Is Industry Wide Phenomena

Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): 2022 Started On a Weak Note; Lower ASP Is Industry Wide Phenomena

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB) reported record high sales volume due to strong demand in existing markets and expansion into new markets.
  • However, lower ASP as a result of additional supply in the market, dragged down revenue and profitability of the company. No recovery in ASP is seen in near-term.
  • By leveraging on its locational advantage for NR glove, focusing on fast growing developing markets, and launching high-margin surgical glove in Thailand, STGT is well-positioned to outpace its Malaysian peers.

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Jul 08
0

Health Care: Supermax Corp, Assertio Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Supermax Corp (SUCB MK): Quickly Mending the Damage; Soft Demand Outlook Remains the Main Overhang
  • ASRT: Rolling Up with Buy Initiation

Supermax Corp (SUCB MK): Quickly Mending the Damage; Soft Demand Outlook Remains the Main Overhang

By Tina Banerjee

  • Supermax Corp (SUCB MK) is facing import ban from the U.S. and Canada. Recently, Norway wealth fund has put the investment in the company under observation for two years.
  • Since 2019, Supermax is being alleged for the poor living and working conditions experienced by its employees. Recently the company has aligned itself to the ILO standard.
  • However, COVID-driven demand of glove is cooling off. Even upon this, excess capacity is bringing down the average selling price, thereby making the earnings outlook uncertain for glove manufacturers.   

ASRT: Rolling Up with Buy Initiation

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ASRT is classic roll-up story where it is leveraging cash flow from one drug to create a portfolio of multiple drugs
  • ASRT has managed to stay under investor radars through acquisitions of drugs with small revenue streams. The revenue is starting to add up 
  • ASRT can use its digital marketing approach to grow earnings and free cash flow from each of the drugs it acquires

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Jul 07
0

Health Care: Medy Tox Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Medy Tox Inc (086900 KS): Legal Battle Continues; Muted Recovery in Export Revenue

Medy Tox Inc (086900 KS): Legal Battle Continues; Muted Recovery in Export Revenue

By Tina Banerjee

  • The U.S. International Trade Commission is starting an official investigation based on Medy Tox Inc (086900 KS)’s complaint against Hugel for the alleged theft of its botulinum toxin strain.  
  • The verdict is expected in H12023. Hugel is expected to receive FDA approval for botulinum toxin by the end of 2022, while Medytox plans to file to FDA in H12023.  
  • Medytox’s export revenue has still not recovered. However, Q1 sales jumped 25%, on the back of 89% increase in domestic revenue. Medytox shares has declined 20% YTD.

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Jul 06
0

Health Care: Shionogi & Co, Gaush Meditech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added
  • Pre-IPO Gaush Meditech – The “Middlemen” Have Many Challenges

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP), an established global name in infectious diseases, is banking on COVID-related products to achieve accelerated double-digit revenue growth in current fiscal.
  • Shionogi applied for the domestic marketing of its COVID-19 oral drug and signed a basic agreement with the government, which is expected to purchase 1 million courses immediately after approval.
  • It has a stable revenue stream from HIV franchise. Apart from infectious diseases, Shionogi has multiple late-stage candidates in psycho-neurological diseases and other new growth areas, including oncology and cardiology.

Pre-IPO Gaush Meditech – The “Middlemen” Have Many Challenges

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Gaush Meditech (GMT HK) is a leading total solution provider of ophthalmic medical devices industry.
  • The irreplaceability of Gaush in the whole industrial chain is actually not high based on its current business model.The proprietary product business may also need to face different policy risks.
  • Together with other uncertainties such as increasing market competition and medical reform policy in China, we are conservative about Gaush’s outlook at the current stage.  

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Jul 05
0

Health Care: Kids Clinic India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Kids Clinic India Pre-IPO – Losses Narrowing with Cluster Model Growth Strategy

Kids Clinic India Pre-IPO – Losses Narrowing with Cluster Model Growth Strategy

By Ethan Aw

  • Kids Clinic India (9890311Z IN) is looking to raise approximately US$160m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Kids Clinic India (KCI) is a super-specialty mother and baby-care provider, offering end-to-end coverage of all stages of the parenthood journey, beginning with fertility treatments, through maternity, neonatology and paediatrics.
  • KCI’s growth has been impressive, becoming operating EBITDA and CFO positive in recent years. However, it remains unclear as to which business segment or regions are KCI’s largest growth drivers.

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Jul 04
0

Health Care: Microport Scientific, Mani Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance
  • Mani Inc (7730 JP): Q2 Result Exceeds Expectation Aided by Demand Recovery; FY22 Guidance Reiterated

Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, Microport Scientific (853 HK)’s 2021 performance missed expectations. 
  • Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.
  • Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.

Mani Inc (7730 JP): Q2 Result Exceeds Expectation Aided by Demand Recovery; FY22 Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mani Inc (7730 JP) reported Q2FY22 revenue ahead of guidance, mainly driven by demand recovery in the surgical segment and positive effect of foreign exchange. However, profitability declined year-over-year.
  • Despite revenue beat in H1FY22, management reiterated FY22 guidance due to geographical risk. Outlook seems to be uncertain for China and India, which together contribute 33% of total revenue.
  • Mani shares plunged 20% since I published bearish note on the company in January 2022. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

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