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In today’s briefing:
- ResApp’s Revised Offer from Pfizer Still Faces Headcount Test Risk
- Biocytogen (百奥赛图) Pre-IPO: Prospectus and Valuation Updates
- Moderna (MRNA US): Better-Than-Expected Q2 Result; Guidance Reiterated; $3B Share Buyback Announced
- Opthea Ltd (OPT AU): Lead Asset for Highly Prevalent Retinal Disease Moving Toward Commercialization
- Pre-IPO Cali Biosciences – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns
ResApp’s Revised Offer from Pfizer Still Faces Headcount Test Risk
- Pfizer Inc (PFE US) upped its Resapp Health (RAP AU) offer from A$0.146 per share to A$0.208 per share, in line with the independent expert’s preferred value of A$0.208 per share.
- The NO vote camp from defiant retail shareholders forced Pfizer to up its offer. Unfortunately, a vocal NO camp is still present despite Pfizer’s revised higher offer.
- At the last close, the gross spread is 9.5%. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable as ResApp is a highly-held retail stock, posing a headcount test risk to the scheme.
Biocytogen (百奥赛图) Pre-IPO: Prospectus and Valuation Updates
- Biocytogen, a China-based pre-clinical research and biopharmaceutical company, will pre-market its IPO to raise USD 25m, which is a significant downsize from the previous USD 300m fundraising target.
- In our previous note, we covered the company’s fundamentals and compared its business with its peers.
- We will provide an update on its latest prospectus and its peer performance in this note.
Moderna (MRNA US): Better-Than-Expected Q2 Result; Guidance Reiterated; $3B Share Buyback Announced
- Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported strong Q2 results, with both revenue and EPS surpassing consensus. Profitability was negatively impacted by one-off inventory write-down charge.
- Management has reiterated advance purchase agreements for expected delivery of ~$21 billion in 2022. Assuming an endemic situation, Moderna’s commercial infrastructure is prepared for a 2023 commercial market.
- The Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program for $3 billion in August 2022, with no expiry. Moderna shares have gained 27% in last three months.
Opthea Ltd (OPT AU): Lead Asset for Highly Prevalent Retinal Disease Moving Toward Commercialization
- Opthea Ltd (OPT AU) is developing OPT-302, a first-in-class investigational drug. With improved efficacy, OPT-302 has the potential to be the next transformative step in the treatment of wet AMD.
- Pivotal phase 3 trials are ongoing for OPT-302, with topline data expected in mid-2024. OTP-302 is expected to be launched in 2025. OPT-302 represents a multi-billion-dollar peak sales opportunity.
- As of December 2021, Opthea had cash balance of A$88 million and no debt. Over the trailing 12 months, the company had cash burn of A$56 million.
Pre-IPO Cali Biosciences – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns
- Both the postoperative pain management and the expansive application of anesthetics in various fields would increase the market demand for ropivacaine.
- Cali Biosciences (CALI HK)’s core product, the ropivacaine long-acting analgesic injection drug candidate CPL-01, would have to face the challenges of fierce competition, uncertain market acceptance, and negative policy impact.
- Together with other concerns such as slow development progress, “not rich enough” pipeline and potential liquidity risk, we are conservative about Cali’s outlook at the current stage.
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