Category

Healthcare

Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Mankind Pharma Ltd, Remegen Co Ltd, Jenscare Scientific, Access Bio Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) 22H1 – Mr. Market’s “Misjudgment” Brings Opportunities to Make Money
  • Jenscare (宁波健世科技) Pre-IPO:  Massive Delays After Missing the Boat
  • Access Bio (950130 KS): COVID-19 Rapid Tests Demand Lose Sheen Sending Share Prices Down to Lows

Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Mankind Pharma Ltd (6596876Z IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, Axis Capital, IIFL Securities, Jefferies and JPM. 
  • Mankind Pharma (MK) is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products. 
  • It is mainly focused on the domestic market. 18 of its brands were among the 300 highest selling brands in the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM), according to IQVIA.

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) 22H1 – Mr. Market’s “Misjudgment” Brings Opportunities to Make Money

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For RC18, it depends on whether RemeGen can seize this short period of strategic opportunities to further establish its leading position. The situation faced by RC48 is much more complex.
  • From the current situation, it’s very challenging for RemeGen to evolve into biopharma.That is to say, RemeGen’s future positioning is still likely to remain a biotech, which limits valuation expansion.
  • Even based on conservative forecast, there’s still decent upside potential. We’re bullish on RemeGen. Due to unfriendly macro, investors may need to consider the potential downside risks when going long.

Jenscare (宁波健世科技) Pre-IPO:  Massive Delays After Missing the Boat

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jenscare, a China based structural heart disease focused medical device company, plans to raise up to USD 30m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous insight, we discussed that there have been many TAVR companies listed in Hong Kong but we think Jenscare has a differentiated portfolio.
  • In this note, we will look at updates in its latest filing and highlight massive delays in its product candidates. We also provide a quick thought on its valuation.

Access Bio (950130 KS): COVID-19 Rapid Tests Demand Lose Sheen Sending Share Prices Down to Lows

By Tina Banerjee

  • Access Bio Inc (950130 KS) has been reporting triple-digit revenue growth since 2020, thanks to massive demand for the COVID-19 tests. The performance continued in this year too.
  • Going forward, the stellar revenue growth is not expected to be replicated as demand for COVID-19 tests looks uncertain beyond 2022. Revenue from the company’s malaria test is declining.
  • Access Bio has developed monkeypox tests. However, monkeypox does not seem be a large and attractive market opportunity, which can compensate for the revenue loss from COVID-19 tests.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Aier Eye Hospital Group, Agilent Technologies, Pfizer Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Aier Eye Hospital (300015.CH) 22H1 – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist
  • Agilent Technologies: New Launches In Mass Spectrometry & Other Drivers
  • Pfizer Inc.: The Global Blood Therapeutics Acquisition & Other Drivers

Aier Eye Hospital (300015.CH) 22H1 – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The fundamental changes in the population structure will lead to a decline in the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods. The long logic doesn’t exist.
  • Aier has hit a growth ceiling. As the endogenous demand will be stepped downward gradually, the performance of Aier will further decline. The downward elasticity of valuation is greater.
  • It is still difficult for healthcare sector to have its own independent growth logic. The bottom of healthcare sector would appear after the collapse of Aier’s valuation.

Agilent Technologies: New Launches In Mass Spectrometry & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Agilent Technologies delivered an excellent quarterly result with earnings and revenue exceeding market expectations significantly.
  • The strong results were led by strength in its biggest markets i.e., chemical, energy, and pharma.
  • We provide the stock of Agilent Technologies with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Pfizer Inc.: The Global Blood Therapeutics Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • While operating in a difficult foreign exchange environment, Pfizer maintained a good operational performance in the second quarter and delivered an all-around beat, exceeding Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • The chance of a future variety that combines the severity of the original virus with the contagiousness of Omicron nevertheless persists.
  • Among major updates, Pfizer went on to acquire Global Blood Therapeutics to strengthen its commitment to sickle cell disease.

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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Imugene Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX
  • Imugene (IMU AU) Placement: Extended Runway for Clinical Programs Pipeline at Modest Equity Dilution

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX

By Brian Freitas

Imugene (IMU AU) Placement: Extended Runway for Clinical Programs Pipeline at Modest Equity Dilution

By Tina Banerjee

  • Imugene Ltd (IMU AU) announced A$80 million institutional placement at A$0.20/ share, representing 11.1% discount to last close on September 9, 2022. Shares issued represent just 6.8% of existing shares.
  • The company will have a pro-forma cash position of ~A$175 million on completion of the Placement, funding the company’s broad clinical pipeline of three platform technologies.
  • For every two new shares subscribed for under the placement, Imugene intends to issue one free new option. The options issued will provide A$66 million in funding, if fully exercised.

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Sep 17
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Ajanta Pharma, Grifols SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Branded Generics Focus Ensures Consistent Growth
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September ‘22 Report

Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Branded Generics Focus Ensures Consistent Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN) has a well-diversified business model in terms of markets and therapies. The company’s largest revenue contributing segment, branded generics is seeing healthy double-digit revenue growth.
  • Ajanta focuses on limited competition product in US. Going forward, the US business will see accelerated growth, driven by new launches. Ajanta plans to file 10–12 ANDAs during FY23.
  • Ajanta has taken 1% price increase across all its market, which should drive margin improvement in coming quarters. The company has guided for EBITDA margin of 26–27% for FY23.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September ‘22 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-August, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards tightening (with the exception of German shares, which have generally widened).
  • Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB Svenska Stal.
  • Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Lepu Medical Technology A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Lepu Medical GDR Listing – Financials Improved Sequentially, However, Price Momentum Has Been Weak

Lepu Medical GDR Listing – Financials Improved Sequentially, However, Price Momentum Has Been Weak

By Clarence Chu

  • Lepu Medical Technology A (300003 CH) is looking to raise up to US$550m in its Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC, Citic Securities, and Credit Suisse.
  • The firm has earlier secured CSRC’s approval to list a maximum 36.09m GDRs (or 180.46m A-shares, at a 1:5 conversion). 
  • As per media reports, Lepu Medical will look to launch its Swiss GDR offering soon and the eventual deal size might amount to US$300m.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Ramsay Health Care, Singapore Medical, Jenscare Scientific, Biocon Ltd, Modern Dental Group, Giant Biogene Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit
  • Singapore Medical’s Light VGO Offer from Top Management
  • Singapore Medical: Management’s Low-Balled Buyout
  • Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results
  • Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN): Stake Sale in Subsidiary Is a Step in Right Direction
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe
  • Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness
  • Giant Biogene (巨子生物) Pre-IPO: Visits to Beauty Stores and Online Apps

Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit

By Arun George

  • KKR cannot improve the terms of its offer but left the door open by stating that a deal can be quickly closed if the Board is willing to reset expectations.
  • The transaction is stuck in an impasse as Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) will not recommend KKR’s offer until it is improved, and KKR says it cannot improve terms.
  • The peers’ shares have been, on average, flat since the undisturbed date. The shares are trading slightly below the undisturbed price and are attractive on fundamentals.

Singapore Medical’s Light VGO Offer from Top Management

By Arun George

  • Singapore Medical (SMG SP) received a voluntary conditional offer from management (chairman, CEO, exec director). The offer is cash (S$0.37) or scrip (1 new share in the offeror per share).
  • The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition. Irrevocables, which will take the scrip option, represent 51.67% of outstanding shares.
  • The offer is light, but the offeror reserves the right to reduce the acceptance condition to a lower level (above 50%). Therefore, this offer will likely turn unconditional. 

Singapore Medical: Management’s Low-Balled Buyout

By David Blennerhassett

  • Healthcare provider Singapore Medical (SMG SP) has announced a voluntary conditional general offer from TLW Success, an entity equally controlled by three senior members of management.
  • TLW is offering A$0.37/share, a 13.8% premium to last close. Shareholders are afforded an unlisted scrip option.
  • TLW shareholders hold 16.49%. Irrevocables another 35.18%, or 51.67% all-in. The Offer is conditional on 90% of shares out held by the Offeror. The acceptance level condition may be reduced. 

Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The main bottleneck in this market in China is the severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals to carry out such surgery, leading to lower-than-expected market penetration/sales performance.
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK)’s products have to face fierce competition, without obvious advantage of development progress, or the progress has already lagged behind the competitors. 
  • Overall, good valuation cannot be supported without promising commercialization outlook. We are not sure whether Jenscare can finally achieve the ideal return in the case of unfriendly external environment.

Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN): Stake Sale in Subsidiary Is a Step in Right Direction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN) divested 5.4% stake in Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN) and raised INR12.2B. The proceed will be used to finance Biocon’s acquisition of biologics business of Viatris.
  • Biocon is still working on the equity-debt split of Viatris deal, and a final decision on the same will be announced soon.
  • The strategic deal with Viatris will transform Biocon Biologics into a leading vertically integrated global biologics company, with one of the broadest and deepest commercialized biosimilars portfolio in the industry.

Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe

By Tina Banerjee

  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) is developing interventional products for the treatment of structural heart diseases. Its core product LuX-Valve is expected to become the first commercialized TTVR product in China.
  • With its comprehensive portfolio and early mover advantage, Jenscare is well-positioned to capitalize on large and underpenetrated China’s structural heart diseases treatment market worth of RMB20.3 billion in 2030.
  • Jenscare Scientific plans to raise $30 million (HKD234 million) in its third application for a Hong Kong IPO, with CICC and Citigroup being the joint sponsors.

Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to better-than-expected VBP results, we saw a decent rally of MDG’s share price last Friday. However, all the medical products that are covered by VBP begin to lose logic. 
  • Backwardness in R&D is a bottleneck restricting MDG’s future growth. MDG is more like a manufacturing/processing plant relying on labor dividends than a technology company with high product added value.
  • Multiple risks (e.g.pandemic, depreciation of exchange rate against US dollar, economic downturn, etc.) will add more uncertainties to MDG’s 2022 performance. MDG’s share price could remain tepid after temporary rally. 

Giant Biogene (巨子生物) Pre-IPO: Visits to Beauty Stores and Online Apps

By Ming Lu

  • Giant Biogene (GB) has a large sales network of physical distributors.
  • We believe GB’s large capacity packages have price advantage over domestic competitors.
  • But we also believe GB should strengthen or outsource its studio for live broadcasting sales.

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Sep 14
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Genscript Biotech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) 22H1 – The Outlook and the Risks Behind

Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) 22H1 – The Outlook and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Genscript’s four business segments are the horizontal and vertical extension based on gene synthesis technology. There is also synergy between Genscript and its subsidiaries, which can promote each other’s development.
  • If only from the business level, GenScript is a worthy target for investment. It has the exponential growth potential in valuation and could reach a new high in the future.
  • However, our biggest worry lies in the “black swans events” . We don’t know what “new surprises” GenScript will bring us in the future. 

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Sep 13
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December
  • Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096.HK) 22H1 – Gloomy Outlook and Risks in Profits

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly 90% of the way through the review period, we see 4 changes using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.
  • There are overlaps in the inclusions using 6/12 month minimum listing history, so there is less risk if the index committee switches from 6 to 12 months at the review.
  • Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,795m.

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096.HK) 22H1 – Gloomy Outlook and Risks in Profits

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Simcere’s profit was mainly driven by the income of non-recurring items (investment business). Due to unfriendly external environment, investors are recommended to be prepared for further decline in net profit. 
  • The overall quality of Simcere’s pipeline is not high, which would be difficult to bring decent revenue in the next few years. Simcere’s transformation is not as smooth as expected.
  • In fact, over the years, Simcere’s strongest capability lies in the sales rather than R&D. Since the game rule changes, we are bearish on Simcere.

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Sep 12
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Incannex Healthcare, Innovex Medical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Incannex Healthcare (IHL AU): Attractive Idea Backed by Niche Focus on Cannabinoid Pharmaceuticals
  • Pre-IPO Innovex Medical – A Comprehensive Product Portfolio Underpins Future Growth Prospects

Incannex Healthcare (IHL AU): Attractive Idea Backed by Niche Focus on Cannabinoid Pharmaceuticals

By Tina Banerjee

  • Incannex Healthcare (IHL AU) has a differentiated product portfolio, addressing unmet global medical needs. With cash balance of A$37.5 million, Incannex is well-resourced to fund its activities for ~2.5 years.
  • Recently completed acquisition of APIRx Pharmaceuticals has strategically expanded intellectual property portfolio to 28 clinical programs, the world’s largest portfolio of patented medicinal cannabinoid drug formulations and psychedelic treatment protocols.
  • The combined annual global market size of the targeted indications is over $420 billion. The company’s strategy of combining cannabinoids with FDA-approved generic drugs calls for shorter regulatory pathway.

Pre-IPO Innovex Medical – A Comprehensive Product Portfolio Underpins Future Growth Prospects

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • As one of the few companies in the world that could provide one-stop solutions including all major medical devices used in non-vascular interventional surgery, Innovex’s outlook is promising.
  • About 30% overseas revenue indicates that the Company’s internationalization is on track, which could help to “hedge” negative domestic policy risks.
  • In terms of the valuation, Innovex’s valuation should be higher than Scivita but lower than Aohua. However, Innovex has the potential to surpass Aohua in the future.

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Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Lupin Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Muted Q1FY23 Results as The US Sales Dipped Significantly

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Muted Q1FY23 Results as The US Sales Dipped Significantly

By Tina Banerjee

  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN) reported muted Q1FY23 performance, with revenue declining 15% y/y and 7% q/q to INR36 billion. Revenue from North America is down 24% y/y and 29% q/q.
  • Price erosion in the U.S. coupled with shelf stock adjustment on the higher trade inventory are creating a dent to the quarterly numbers.
  • We would like to see a sustainable revival in the company’s North America revenue performance and margin improvement, before taking any position in the stock.

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