Category

Healthcare

Daily Brief Health Care: Speedoc, Dr Lal PathLabs Ltd, Shanghai Tofflon Science A, Phyx44, Gilead Sciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Speedoc Snags US$28M to Bring Advanced Medical Care to Homes in SG, MY
  • Dr Lal PathLabs (DLPL IN): Q2FY23 Review- Volume Driven Sales Growth; Sequential Margin Improvement
  • Shanghai Tofflon Science Placement (300171.CH)-Industry Periodicity May Put Valuation Under Pressure
  • Better Bite Ventures, Shiok Meats CEO Invest in Animal-Free Dairy Startup Phyx44
  • Gilead Sciences: Acquisition of MiroBio & Other Drivers

Speedoc Snags US$28M to Bring Advanced Medical Care to Homes in SG, MY

By e27

  • Speedoc, a virtual clinic and healthcare solutions platform that brings advanced medical care to homes in Singapore and Malaysia, has announced closing its US$28 million pre-series B funding round.
  • Founded in 2017, Speedoc is a virtual clinic and healthcare solutions platform enabling users access to home-based medical care and services. 
  • It aims to drive medical care needs out of hospitals and clinics by delivering a full suite of healthcare services to homes.

Dr Lal PathLabs (DLPL IN): Q2FY23 Review- Volume Driven Sales Growth; Sequential Margin Improvement

By Tina Banerjee

  • Dr Lal PathLabs Ltd (DLPL IN) reported revenue growth of 7% y/y in Q2FY23, driven by 15% y/y growth in non-COVID business, which clocked highest ever quarterly revenue.  
  • Although business growth was mainly driven by a double-digit patient volume growth, average realization per patient also increased 3% y/y to INR746.
  • Amid rising competition, the company reported sequential improvement in bottom-line. Normalized EBITDA increased 20% compared to Q1FY23. Normalized EBITDA margin improved 310 basis points sequentially.

Shanghai Tofflon Science Placement (300171.CH)-Industry Periodicity May Put Valuation Under Pressure

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We analyzed three main factors to drive high performance growth of Tofflon in recent years, but these factors have become untenable. The remaining opportunity mainly lies in import substitution.
  • Every explosive growth of Tofflon benefits from positive industry trend, whose periodicity is obvious. It’s not a good investment opportunity for long run,but a staged investment opportunity in short term.
  • Tofflon is in the transition from explosive growth to steady growth. The change in industry demand would suppress valuation system. Buy low and sell high,rather than hold for long time.

Better Bite Ventures, Shiok Meats CEO Invest in Animal-Free Dairy Startup Phyx44

By e27

  • Phyx44, a biotech-enabled food science startup based in Bengaluru, India, has secured US$1.2 million in seed capital.

  • The startup will use the money to accelerate R&D, expand the team and work on the co-development of product formulation with key partners.

  • Founded in early 2021, Phyx44 develops animal-free milk proteins and fats for use in dairy products. It bets on microbial fermentation as the best way to replicate dairy.


Gilead Sciences: Acquisition of MiroBio & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Gilead Sciences delivered a good result with an all-around beat as its total product sales continued to grow sequentially.
  • The majority of the growth was driven by sales coming from oncology and HIV.
  • Gilead Sciences continues to strengthen its early-stage portfolio, thus adding a BTLA agonist for the inflammation of MicroBio, also an option for the bispecific antibody for MacroGenics for oncology.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607 HK): Stable Core Business; New Drug Approvals to Accelerate Growth
  • Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK)- Low Profitability Is Big Problem; Share Price Would Underperform

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607 HK): Stable Core Business; New Drug Approvals to Accelerate Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (2607 HK) reported strong result for the first nine months of 2022, with revenue increasing 8.5% to RMB174.6B. Notably, total revenue growth accelerated to 13% in 3Q22.
  • With a leading market positioning and nation-wide distribution network, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the sector tailwinds. Easing of restrictions will provide a major impetus to the company.
  • The company has been improving its innovative drug pipeline. It has 42 innovative products in its pipeline, six of which are in pivotal studies.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK)- Low Profitability Is Big Problem; Share Price Would Underperform

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The majority revenue of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals comes from pharmaceutical distribution business, but the pharmaceutical manufacturing business has much higher gross margin,which drives up the overall profit margin of the Company.
  • Due to VBP, profit margin is under pressure. Weak demand for COVID-19 vaccines, decreasing long-term profitability and concerns on synergistic effect of cooperation with Yunnan Baiyao cast doubt on outlook.
  • Compared with peers, the valuation of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals doesn’t show decent upside potential. High valuation expectations cannot be supported due to industry trend. Its share prices could underperform.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Takeda Pharmaceutical, Cipla Ltd, Bionote, Shockwave Medical Inc, Eli Lilly & Co, Abbvie Inc, Pfizer Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Takeda: A Deep Dive into Takeda’s Dengue Vaccine
  • 2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth
  • Bionote Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Continued Triple-Digit Sales Growth in Q3; 2022 Guidance Raised
  • Eli Lilly & Co: The Akouos Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • AbbVie Inc: The DJS Antibodies Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) – What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

Takeda: A Deep Dive into Takeda’s Dengue Vaccine

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda’s dengue vaccine TAK-003/QDENGA has been approved in Indonesia and is awaiting consent from the EU. The company is also seeking approval from the US, Latam and other Asian countries.
  • The company plans to launch the vaccine in December or early next year which will become the industry’s first immunisation against dengue after the problems faced by Sanofi’s Dengvaxia.
  • In this insight, we take a look at Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) ‘s decade long journey into its dengue vaccine and its potential.

2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.
  • The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.
  • Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.

Bionote Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • Bionote (377740 KS) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its Korean IPO. The IPO would consist of both a primary and secondary selldown.
  • Bionote is an integrated producer of diagnostics test products and biocontent products. 
  • In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.

Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Continued Triple-Digit Sales Growth in Q3; 2022 Guidance Raised

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) reported strong 3Q22 result, with revenue growing 102% y/y to 131.3 million, beating consensus by $7.5 million. EPS stood at $0.92, beating consensus by 35%.
  • Revenue growth was driven by the launch of Shockwave C2, in the U.S. in February 2021, continued recovery from the pandemic impact, and increased adoption of Shockwave products.
  • Shockwave now expects 2022 revenue of $483–488 million, representing 104–106% y/y growth. This compares to previous revenue guidance of $465–475 million and current consensus of $478.9 million.

Eli Lilly & Co: The Akouos Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly’s stock has been on a roll off-late in a relatively challenging market environment and the company supported it with a solid result surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • They have continued to invest in expanding their manufacturing base to fulfill the rising demand for their products and prepare for upcoming launches.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

AbbVie Inc: The DJS Antibodies Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AbbVie’s results for the past quarter were mixed and the company failed to meet Wall Street expectations with respect to its revenues but managed an earnings beat.
  • The management also observed a persistently strong double-digit operational sales growth from several other significant products, including Botox Cosmetic, Vraylar, Venclexta, and Botox Therapeutic.
  • This market growth is anticipated to primarily affect Juvederm and AbbVie’s body contouring portfolio products, which have higher consumer price points.

Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) – What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. 
  • We haven’t seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.
  • We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Akeso Biopharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) – The Recent Business Progress, the Valuation and the Challenges

Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) – The Recent Business Progress, the Valuation and the Challenges

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Akeso has made some business progress. We analyzed the commercialization outlook/concerns on its late stage products. Akeso still stays at the level of biotech, a long way from becoming biopharma.
  • The core challenge is whether bispecific antibody can bring better marginal clinical benefits than the combination of two mab, and why patients are willing to pay higher price for them?
  • The sales forecast of Akeso’s late stage products could be RMB2 billion to RMB3 billion. The market value by the end of Nov 4 was just reasonable but not undervalued.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Launch Aided Q2 Result; Rich Pipeline Lends Visibility

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Launch Aided Q2 Result; Rich Pipeline Lends Visibility

By Tina Banerjee

  • Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRRD IN) reported strong Q2FY23 results, with revenue growing 9% y/y, mainly driven by North America business due to launch of gRevlimid in the US market.
  • GRevlimid is not a one-off opportunity and will contribute meaningfully over the next few quarters as well. Price erosion in the base business continues to be within normal range.
  • Adjusted for the covid product sales during Q2 FY22, and the brand divestment income in Q1 FY23, Indian business has grown in mid-teens year-over-year and mid-single digit sequentially.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Moderna Inc, Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred
  • Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): Revised Capacity Expansion Plan to Arrest Downfall in ASP

Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

By Tina Banerjee

  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  
  • With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.

Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): Revised Capacity Expansion Plan to Arrest Downfall in ASP

By Tina Banerjee

  • As continued strong market competition and excess capacities from major players have capped upward trajectory for ASP, key global glove manufacturers have revised their capex plans lower.
  • To reflect the current industry climate, Sri Trang expects to reach an annual production capacity of 56.6 billion pieces in 2024 from 81.9 billion pieces earlier.
  • The company aims to launch surgical gloves, which command a high margin, in the domestic market in Q4 2022.

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Daily Brief Health Care: CanSino Biologics Inc, M3 Inc, Singapore Medical, Bionote, Bristol Myers Squibb Co, Johnson & Johnson, Biomarin Pharmaceutical, Novavax Inc, Abbott Laboratories and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long
  • M3: Covid Related Trials and Yen Depreciation Support Earnings Beat
  • Singapore Medical: TTW Bumps To S$0.40
  • Bionote Pre-IPO Peer Comp – Larger Segment Leads in Margins, but Trend Could Be Reversing
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Turning Point Acquisition & Oncology Expansion
  • Johnson & Johnson: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers
  • BioMarin Corp: Key Drivers
  • Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor
  • Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The fake news about China reopen and the COVID-19 vaccine business are the major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price. However, such rally would not last long.
  • CanSino didn’t perform well in Q3 and 2022 would be a difficult year for CanSino. The major turning point of CanSino performance still lies in MCV4, not COVID-19 vaccines. 
  • CanSino’s H-share valuation has become more reasonable,but the downside risk in HKEX is hard to predict. Investors could consider offload and secure the gains. There’s better opportunity to long ahead.

M3: Covid Related Trials and Yen Depreciation Support Earnings Beat

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP)  reported 2QFY03/2023 results yesterday. Revenue grew 10.6% YoY to JPY56.7bn (vs consensus JPY54.7bn) while OP increased 31.5% YoY to JPY17.9bn (vs consensus JPY17.0bn).
  • The company’s earnings were mainly driven by Covid-19 related trials and a weaker Yen which mainly helped the overseas business post strong results.
  • M3’s growth prospects remain stagnant and the company’s valuation multiple is still expensive as earnings expectation has started to decline.

Singapore Medical: TTW Bumps To S$0.40

By David Blennerhassett

  • I should have stuck to my guns.  Singapore Medical (SMG SP)‘s original Exit Offer was low-balled. The IFA all but conceded this. I mused that TTW probably needed to bump.
  • And now TTW has, bumping the Offer by 8.1% to S$0.40/share, and declaring the terms final.
  • The Offer remains subject to TTW holding 90% (with 77.42% in the bag already). The Offer has been extended to the 5 December. 

Bionote Pre-IPO Peer Comp – Larger Segment Leads in Margins, but Trend Could Be Reversing

By Clarence Chu

  • Bionote (377740 KS) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its Korean IPO. The IPO would consist of both a primary and secondary selldown.
  • Bionote is an integrated producer of diagnostics test products and biocontent products. Based on its unique recombinant antigen and antibody manufacturing technology, the firm researches and develops diagnostic reagent products. 
  • In this note, we look at peers and undertake a peer comparison.

Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Turning Point Acquisition & Oncology Expansion

By Baptista Research

  • Bristol-Myers delivered another all-around beat as the management continued to make an effort to expand its new product range and inline franchise.
  • In this quarter, the inline and new product portfolio grew by 13%, and the company managed to deliver non-GAAP EPS growth of 3%.
  • Revenues in the third quarter were approximately $11.2 billion and the inline and new product portfolio grew strongly up to 13%.

Johnson & Johnson: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Johnson & Johnson has shown some recovery in its stock price which was backed by a solid result across its business segments.
  • Pharmaceutical growth was determined by robust commercial execution and access that enabled Johnson & Johnson to continue to deliver growth in operational growth.
  • We provide the stock of Johnson & Johnson with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revised target price.

BioMarin Corp: Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BioMarin delivered a disappointing set of results for the third quarter with revenues and earnings well below Wall Street expectations.
  • The company’s Kuvan offering continues to have a declining market share of prophylaxis exclusivity in the United States.
  • Along with new patients from reported new markets, the team continues to see patient growth in European markets similar to what they saw in the prior quarter.

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
  • The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
  • Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor

Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The strength of Abbott’s diversified business strategy and execution allowed it to deliver another solid quarter that greatly outperformed expectations despite the challenging environment.
  • Since the beginning of last year, EPD has seen double-digit organic sales growth, driven by a consistent cadence of new product releases and great commercial execution.
  • Additionally, during the quarter, they changed the leadership at their Sturgis location as well as in their previous organization.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Singapore Medical, Pfizer Inc, SanBio Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Medical’s VGO: Revised Offer of S$0.40 Is Good to Go
  • Pfizer Inc (PFE US): Stellar Q3 Performance; Despite Unfavorable Fx Impact, Raises 2022 Guidance
  • SanBio (4592 JP): Remains Unlucky for Second-Time; Delay in First Product Approval Weighs Heavily

Singapore Medical’s VGO: Revised Offer of S$0.40 Is Good to Go

By Arun George

  • Singapore Medical (SMG SP)‘s voluntary conditional offer from management (chairman, CEO, exec director) has been increased from S$0.37 to S$0.40 per share (share option unchanged). 
  • The revised offer is final unless there is a competitive situation. The offeror came to the realisation that a bump was required to meet the 90% minimum acceptance condition.
  • Acceptances stand at 77.42% of outstanding shares. The revised offer is now reasonable and should be sufficient to nudge holdouts to accept. At last close, the gross spread is 5.3%.

Pfizer Inc (PFE US): Stellar Q3 Performance; Despite Unfavorable Fx Impact, Raises 2022 Guidance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Pfizer Inc (PFE US) reported beat-and-raise Q3 results. Revenue declined 2% operationally to $22.6 billion, beating consensus by $1.5 billion. Adjusted EPS of $1.78 was ahead of consensus of $1.40.
  • Pfizer raised its 2022 financial guidance, on an operational basis, for revenue and adjusted EPS by approximately $1.7 billion and $0.19, respectively.
  • The company aims to launch 19 new products or indications, of which more than two thirds have the potential to be blockbusters, in the market over the next 18 months.

SanBio (4592 JP): Remains Unlucky for Second-Time; Delay in First Product Approval Weighs Heavily

By Tina Banerjee

  • In March, SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP) completed the application filing for approval for its investigational product SB623, as a treatment for chronic motor deficit from traumatic brain injury.
  • With a priority review designation, SB623 approval was expected in September. SanBio is expecting a delay in the approval. SB623 is now expected to be approved next year. 
  • For FY23, the company is now expecting operating expenses of ¥8.1 billion, which exceeds the earlier expectations by ¥2.2 billion due to an anticipated increase in manufacturing-related expenses.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Singapore Medical, WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Medical’s VGO: Acceptances at 77.37%, Closing Date Now 15 Nov
  • Singapore Medical Extends Offer As Tendering Surprises
  • WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 22Q3- It’s Too Early to Think That The Past Rapid Growth Has Resumed

Singapore Medical’s VGO: Acceptances at 77.37%, Closing Date Now 15 Nov

By Arun George

  • Singapore Medical (SMG SP)‘s voluntary conditional offer from management (chairman, CEO, exec director) has received acceptances of 77.37% of outstanding shares, below the 90% minimum acceptance condition.
  • The closing date has been extended to 15 November. To hit the 90% minimum acceptance condition, the offeror requires a 55.8% acceptance rate from the remaining holdout minorities.
  • The IFA previously declared the offer “not fair but reasonable.” The gross spread of 1.4% is not an attractive risk/reward profile. We continue to recommend taking profits.

Singapore Medical Extends Offer As Tendering Surprises

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 14 September, healthcare provider Singapore Medical (SMG SP) announced a  voluntary MBO from TLW at S$0.37/share.  The IFA concluded the Offer was “not fair but reasonable”. 
  • The Offer is conditional on 90% of shares out held by the Offeror, and the TLW shareholders plus irrevocables hold 51.67% all-in. This 90% conditionality is firm. 
  • As of the first close, TLW now has 77.37%. The Offer has been extended by a fortnight. The Offer price has NOT been declared final.

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 22Q3- It’s Too Early to Think That The Past Rapid Growth Has Resumed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi AppTec’s 2022Q3 results beat the market expectations. The Company’s performance showed good recovery from the prior pandemic/lockdown, but it has not yet entirely reversed the trend of slowing growth.
  • Wuxi AppTec has a problem of decreasing future gross margins. Although the Q3 results could bring short-term catalyst for WuXi AppTec’s share price, such rebound may not last long.
  • We further analyzed WuXi AppTec’s business, and we remain to be conservative on the Company, because the whole outlook and investment logic of CXO have changed. 

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Daily Brief Health Care: SillaJen Inc, Global Health (Medanta), Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk, Asahi Intecc, Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, AMI Organics Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 54 Companies in Korea in November 2022
  • Global Health IPO – Small Player but Attractive
  • Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals
  • Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) – Higher Volumes Lower Intensity
  • Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Stellar Performance in FY22 Likely to Accelerate in FY23
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – The New Acquisition Is Hard to Turn Things Around
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific: New Technology For Cell Culture Harvesting & Other Drivers
  • Ami Organics Ltd: Forensic Analysis

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 54 Companies in Korea in November 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 54 stocks in Korea in November 2022, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 52 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 54 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in November and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 54 stocks, the top 5 market cap stocks include Enchem, Sebit Chem, DearU, Sillajen, and Sampyo Cement. They could be exposed to greater selling pressures in November. 

Global Health IPO – Small Player but Attractive

By Ethan Aw

  • Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN) is looking to raise approximately US$268m in its upcoming India IPO.  
  • Global Health (GH) is a hospital network that operates under the Medanta brand. The firm currently has five hospitals in operation and one more planned for development.
  • We have looked at the background of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we will talk about the peer comparison and valuations.

Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).
  • Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).
  • The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) – Higher Volumes Lower Intensity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Keluarga‘s 3Q2022 results reflected the changing environment with patient volumes higher and back above COVID levels but treatment intensity came down YoY in 3Q2022 given last year’s Delta base.
  • MIKA continues to expand its hospital numbers through greenfield and brownfield expansions with three new hospitals due to open in the next 12 months plus it is open to M&A.
  • Mitra Keluarga’s treatment intensity should start to improve over the next few quarters given management’s focus on this plus easier YoY comparisons. Valuations remain attractive versus historical levels. 

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Stellar Performance in FY22 Likely to Accelerate in FY23

By Tina Banerjee

  • Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported better-than-expected FY22 results, driven by overseas sales primarily in Europe and China mainly due to market recovery and a weaker yen versus other major currencies.
  • Asahi has raised FY23 revenue guidance to ¥89.3 billion (+15% y/y) from ¥83.5 billion earlier. However, with weakening yen, another beat is on card.
  • Although Asahi shares have strong upside potential, continued hospital staff shortages in the U.S. and COVID-related restrictions in China are the main downside risks.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – The New Acquisition Is Hard to Turn Things Around

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In 2022H1, Ping An Health’s losses narrowed and gross profit margin increased, with various financial indicators showing an improving trend. The Company also announced a new acquisition recently.
  • In the process of turning from 2C business to 2B business, Ping An Health hopes to expand B-end users who can contribute higher margin, but this transformation would encounter difficulties.
  • If the payment method in China is not changed (still dominated by national medical insurance payment, with small portion of commercial insurance), it’s difficult to improve the profitability qualitatively.

Thermo Fisher Scientific: New Technology For Cell Culture Harvesting & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Thermo Fisher Scientific had a positive quarterly result as it surpassed Wall Street expectations on all counts and continued to drive market share gains.
  • Thermo Fisher strengthened its market position during this quarter as it advanced its industry-leading Thermo Scientific Orbitrap portfolio and launched the Orbitrap Ascend Tribrid mass spectrometer during the International Mass Spectrometry Conference.
  • We provide the stock of Thermo Fisher with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Ami Organics Ltd: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • AMI Organics Ltd (AMIORG IN)  is engaged in business of drugs intermediate chemicals and related activities.
  • Key forensic takeaways include bizarre accounting especially pertaining to JV, no provisioning on debtors and working capital woes, and mystery towards transfer from CWIP.
  • There are governance related concerns surrounding related parties, churn in top management, etc that should also not be overlooked.

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