Category

Healthcare

Jul 04
0

Daily Brief Health Care: BeiGene Ltd, Lutronic Corp, Healthway Medical Corp, Takara Bio Inc, Wuhan YZY Biopharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2023:  DDH1, Dali Foods, NWS Holdings, JSR Corp, Lutronic, Chindata
  • Healthway Medical (HMED SP): OUE Healthcare’s Delisting Offer
  • Takara Bio (4974 JP): Corona Cliff Set to Jeopardize FY24 Financial; Formulated FY26 Management Plan
  • Pre-IPO Wuhan YZY Biopharma – Both R&D and Commercialization Capabilities Have yet to Be Proven

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

By Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2023:  DDH1, Dali Foods, NWS Holdings, JSR Corp, Lutronic, Chindata

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of June, 13 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in June was 42%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Healthway Medical (HMED SP): OUE Healthcare’s Delisting Offer

By Arun George

  • Healthway Medical Corp (HMED SP) received a delisting proposal from OUE Lippo Healthcare (IHC SP) at S$0.048 per share, a 45.5% premium to the undisturbed price (28 June).
  • The key conditions are HMED shareholder approval and the offeror and concert parties representing >50% of voting rights (satisfied due to irrevocables).
  • The offer price is attractive. The EGM is likely to be held in late September. The current price of S$0.046 implies a gross spread of 4.3%.

Takara Bio (4974 JP): Corona Cliff Set to Jeopardize FY24 Financial; Formulated FY26 Management Plan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) is anticipating 32% YoY decline in revenue to ¥53B in FY24. Both operating and net profits are expected to decline more than 60% YoY in FY24.
  • The company has formulated the medium-term management plan 2026 for the three-year period ending in FY26, with the final-year quantitative targets being operating profit of ¥15 billion and ROE 8%.
  • Considering Takara Bio’s FY24 operating profit guidance of ¥8B, FY26 target seems to be aggressive and difficult to achieve.

Pre-IPO Wuhan YZY Biopharma – Both R&D and Commercialization Capabilities Have yet to Be Proven

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • YZY is a company that is serious about drug development However, there is actually high R&D risk of its pipeline candidates. So, YZY’s R&D capability has yet to be proven.
  • There are still many unanswered questions in the whole direction of bispecific antibody. If YZY’s candidates fail to prove better marginal clinical benefits, they won’t have good commercialization performance. 
  • YZY has a long way to go based on its pipeline situation. Considering Wuhan YZY Biopharma (YZY HK) has no product in commercialization stage, its valuation may not be high.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Health Care: ST Pharm Co Ltd, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Gracell Biotechnologies Inc, Sanofi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX’s Official Selection Results of SSF & SSO Adds/Deletes: New Rules & Trading Ramifications
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in December
  • Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – May Fail to Solve the Real Pain Points in CAR-T Field
  • Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

KRX’s Official Selection Results of SSF & SSO Adds/Deletes: New Rules & Trading Ramifications

By Sanghyun Park

  • The latest update will feature the addition of 25 single stock futures, as well as five single stock options from KOSPI. Eight single stock futures will be removed.
  • The selection will now take place twice a year, in March and September. Also, the selection requirement includes being included in the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ Global.
  • The shortened selection cycle and the significant potential for the change range to vary based on index review results can indeed have a notable impact.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.98% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.32bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) over the last five months, though there is some near-term underperformance.

Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – May Fail to Solve the Real Pain Points in CAR-T Field

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The latest data of GC012F/GC007g at ASCO/EHA drove up share price, but the current clinical data do not necessarily guarantee the final druggability. So, we advise investors to be rational.
  • Gracell’s pipeline may not solve the real pain points of CAR-T therapy. Until the global momentum of cell therapy is reversed, there’s no need to expect too much from Gracell.
  • Gracell’s stock price would continue to fluctuate with positive clinical data or progress. However, the liquidity of this stock isn’t good. In this situation, both ups and downs are meaningless. 

Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sanofi (SAN FP) earns more than 20% revenue from its key growth driver, Dupixent. With expanding indications, Dupixent is on track to record €10B revenue in 2023.
  • The company has added two new drugs in its portfolio this year. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanofi has reported five positive readouts for its pipeline.
  • Sanofi aims to reach €10B vaccine sales by 2030 from €7B in 2022, fueled by accelerated pace of innovation. The company plans to launch RSV vaccine for infants this winter.

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Jul 01
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Lunit , Lotus Pharmaceutical, Sosei Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in July 2023
  • Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement – Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged
  • Sosei Group (4565 JP): Hit Hard by Partner’s Clinical Trial Termination; Need Time to Recover

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in July 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in July 2023, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 35 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 41 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Lunit, Sungeel Hitech, KG Mobility, Enchem, and E&D Co. 

Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement – Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged

By Ethan Aw

  • Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)’s majority shareholder, Alvogen Emerging Markets Holdings (AEMH), aims to raise up to US$247m through an affiliated secondary block offering.
  • The deal is a small one to digest at only 2.4 days of three month ADV, despite being about 8.7% of current mcap. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sosei Group (4565 JP): Hit Hard by Partner’s Clinical Trial Termination; Need Time to Recover

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sosei Group (4565 JP) shares sold off heavily after a major setback in partner’s clinical trial. On June 26, Pfizer Inc (PFE US) decided to discontinue the development of lotiglipron (PF-07081532).
  • PF-07081532 is one of three clinical candidates nominated by Pfizer during its multi-target drug discovery collaboration with Sosei to research and develop potential new medicines.
  • As lotiglipron was the most advanced clinical candidate using Sosei’s drug discovery platform, the heavy sell-off seen in Sosei shares should not be considered as overreaction.

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Medikaloka Hermina, Daiichi Sankyo, Coeptis Therapeutics Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • PT Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) – Women & Children with Increasing Intensity
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline
  • Coeptis Therapeutics Inc. (COEP) YE22 1Q23 & DeSPAC 29062023

PT Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) – Women & Children with Increasing Intensity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) saw a strong recovery in patient volumes in 1Q2023, with margins starting to normalise from COVID highs and occupancy rates picking up. 
  • The company is back on an expansion track and recently secured the first hospital in the new capital next year with two new hospitals planned to open this year.
  • Medikaloka Hermina continues to focus on women & children and JKN patients but is also expanding into more intensive specialist treatments to drive profits. Valuations remain attractive versus peers.

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

  • In FY23, Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.
  • For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.
  • Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.

Coeptis Therapeutics Inc. (COEP) YE22 1Q23 & DeSPAC 29062023

By ACF Equity Research

  • C&CE 1Q23A $2.1m, burn 1Q $1.6m, S-1MEF filed for raise
  • YE22A Opex $34.2m vs. $14.1 y/y, Δ is redemptions/merger costs
  • Warrants booked as liabilities (SEC de-SPAC ruling Apr 12, 2021)

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Kelun Biotech, MariMed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO: Fairly Valued at Best
  • MariMed, Inc. – Management Series Report Cannabis

Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO: Fairly Valued at Best

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Kelun-Biotech is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. The company launched a deal to  raise up to US$200m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s product lines and provided a brief overview on the company’s valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the book building. We provide our quick thoughts on the valuation and deal dynamics.

MariMed, Inc. – Management Series Report Cannabis

By Water Tower Research

  • MariMed is a multi-state operator (MSO) in the US cannabis industry.
  • It has a national footprint spanning six states: Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Ohio, and Missouri.
  • MariMed focuses on limited-license markets and strives to be vertically integrated wherever possible. 

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Jun 28
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Celltrion Inc, Hugel Inc, Guangzhou Baiyunshan Phar-A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion Group Merger Announcement in July & Oversold Post Disappointing Exclusion by OptumRX?
  • Hugel: A Solid Turnaround Story With Resumption of Botulax Sales in China
  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Expanding Global Presence Provides Solace Amid Patent Tussle with Competitor
  • Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (874.HK) – When Valuation Is Low Enough, Drawbacks Are Tolerable

Celltrion Group Merger Announcement in July & Oversold Post Disappointing Exclusion by OptumRX?

By Douglas Kim

  • Invest Chosun recently reported that the three Celltrion Group companies including Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, and Celltrion Pharm are close to announcing a merger in July.
  • Although Celltrion was not included this time as suppliers of Humira biosimilar products by OptumRX, there is still a potential for Cigna Express Scripts to include Celltrion’s product this year.
  • We think Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare’s share prices are oversold. 

Hugel: A Solid Turnaround Story With Resumption of Botulax Sales in China

By Douglas Kim

  • Hugel is a solid turnaround story. The recent resumption of its Botulax product sales in China is likely to boost the company’s sales and profits in 2023 and 2024.
  • Despite this important catalyst, Hugel continues to face potential legal battle with Medytox over the botulinum toxin-related patent in the United States.
  • The overall valuation on Hugel remains attractive and it is trading at EV/EBITDA of 7.1x and P/E of 18.2x in 2023.

Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Expanding Global Presence Provides Solace Amid Patent Tussle with Competitor

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS) is expected to start shipment of Botulax to China this month. Moreover, the company will launch its HA filler in China by middle of 2023.
  • Hugel plans to focus on expanding into the global market in 2H23. The company began full-scale sales of Botulax in Australia in April and plans to enter Canada this year.
  • Preliminary ruling regarding legal dispute in US is expected in November, while final ruling will come in March 2024. Hugel pushed back its US entry to 2025.  

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (874.HK) – When Valuation Is Low Enough, Drawbacks Are Tolerable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Baiyunshan is not a typical TCM company. As Great Commerce accounts for the majority of revenue, it clearly drags down the quality of total assets and growth expectation for valuation.
  • As Jin Ge and Wang Lao Ji are facing different challenges, the overall growth/profitability of Baiyunshan is under pressure.Due to uncompetitive product line, Baiyunshan’s future growth appears to lack momentum.
  • The valuation of Baiyunshan-A share is still expensive, but Baiyunshan-H share is attractive. After all, the future consumption recovery would be beneficial for boosting Baiyunshan’s valuation. Then, trading opportunity occurs. 

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Jun 27
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Sartorius AG, Medley, Alphamab Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: A SHORT Sartorius LONG Merck Trade Might Be Interesting
  • Medley (4480 JP): 2023 Started on Strong Note; Full-Year Guidance Reaffirmed; Mid-Term Plan Revised
  • Alphamab Co Ltd (9966.HK) – Valuation Is Already Low, but Many Issues Hinder the Bullish View

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: A SHORT Sartorius LONG Merck Trade Might Be Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.
  • Software AG (SOW GR)‘s takeover situation could result in intra-review index changes prior to the September 2023 rebalance. 
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME GR) and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GR) are close to becoming DAX ADDs as they require very small price gains to trigger Fast Entry additions.

Medley (4480 JP): 2023 Started on Strong Note; Full-Year Guidance Reaffirmed; Mid-Term Plan Revised

By Tina Banerjee

  • Medley (4480 JP) started 2023 on a strong note, with 1Q23 revenue increasing 56% YoY to ¥4.4B, mainly driven by 83% YoY revenue growth in medical platform business.
  • Despite better-than-usual progress in Q1 result, Medley did not change 2023 guidance. However, the company sees a strong possibility of surpassing 2023 profit targets at the EBITDA level and below.
  • Medley has revised its mid-term target and brough forward the timeline for achievement of the goals by one year. The company now aims to achieve revenue of ¥23B in 2024.

Alphamab Co Ltd (9966.HK) – Valuation Is Already Low, but Many Issues Hinder the Bullish View

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • KN046’s commercialization prospects is limited if it doesn’t demonstrate better results than PD-1 in head-to-head trial. The value of KN046 still lies in its potential to treat PDAC not sqNSCLC.
  • KN026 is difficult to become a blockbuster variety. JSKN003 may not have good opportunity in front of DS-8201. Many investors are unhappy with Alphamab’s credibility and information disclosure quality.
  • Alphamab’s valuation is already at low level. However, considering the current pessimistic sentiment towards biotech in HKEX, investors are advised to remain cautious, and just short-term trade is recommended.

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Jun 26
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Eoflow , Lunit , Eisai Co Ltd, Deshengtang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (26 Jun) – Eoflow, ENM, Estia, InvoCare, United Malt, Arclands, Chindata
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: A Dozen Potential Changes from Now to December
  • Eisai Co (4523 JP): Alzheimer’s Drug Approaching Full FDA Approval; Other Countries to Follow Soon
  • Pre-IPO Deshengtang Pharmaceutical – Benign Development Momentum, but Still Face Some Risks

Merger Arb Mondays (26 Jun) – Eoflow, ENM, Estia, InvoCare, United Malt, Arclands, Chindata

By Arun George

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: A Dozen Potential Changes from Now to December

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly a third of the way through the review period, we see 12 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance.
  • There could be one change to the index in July/August following Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS)‘s transfer from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and there could be further outperformance as we go through the review period.

Eisai Co (4523 JP): Alzheimer’s Drug Approaching Full FDA Approval; Other Countries to Follow Soon

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) is expected to receive full approval from the FDA for Alzheimer’s disease drug, Leqembi, as FDA advisory committee voted unanimously in support of the drug.  
  • Leqembi application has been granted Priority Review, with PDUFA action date of July 6. Once the FDA grants traditional approval, broader Medicare coverage for Leqembi would begin the same day.
  • Leqembi is expected to receive approval in Japan, EU, and China in FY24. With these approvals, Leqembi is expected to become the top selling Alzheimer’s disease drug globally.

Pre-IPO Deshengtang Pharmaceutical – Benign Development Momentum, but Still Face Some Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to COVID-19, the consumption pattern of customers has changed.The rapid development period of pharmacies is coming to an end and the industry has entered a new era of integration.
  • The essence of Deshengtang’s business model is more like traditional retail offline pharmacies, relying heavily on selling drugs. The Company’s healthy gross margin gives hope for an early turnaround. 
  • However, no matter from which field to seek expansion, Deshengtang would encounter strong competitors.It remains to see if Deshengtang can survive in the industry rather than be acquired by competitors.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Hua Medicine Ltd, Thonburi Healthcare Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.23) – National TCM VBP Results, CDE Changes Game Rule, Hua Medicine
  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): Improving Core Operation and Future Expansion to Drive Growth

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.23) – National TCM VBP Results, CDE Changes Game Rule, Hua Medicine

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The results of National TCM VBP were released, with average price reduction of 49.36%, involving multiple large varieties with sales over RMB1 billion and exclusive products from many listed companies.
  • CDE will move closer to the FDA’s standard for approving new drugs. So, pharmaceutical companies need to update clinical strategies timely according to the situation, otherwise unexpected events may occur.
  • We analyzed some key points about Hua Medicine Ltd (2552 HK). We think its core drug Dorzagliatin still has many uncertainties that are worth investors’ attention.

Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): Improving Core Operation and Future Expansion to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB) recorded 23% YoY increase in non-COVID medical services revenue in 1Q23, mainly driven by higher pay per bed and utilization of inpatient division.
  • With the recovery in core healthcare services, THG expects its revenue to grow 10% YoY this year, accelerating from 6% revenue growth recorded in 2022.
  • In the next 3 years, THG plans to increase 195 outpatient rooms and 419 beds and is set to spend nearly THB5 billion on capex during 2023–2025.

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Jun 24
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Celltrion Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion Merger Announcement in July: Trading Angles Utilizing Appraisal Rights Exercise Dynamics

Celltrion Merger Announcement in July: Trading Angles Utilizing Appraisal Rights Exercise Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • According to Invest Chosun, Celltrion plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.
  • Given that the approximate timing of the merger registration statement submission has already been exposed to the market, we can track the difference between the spot and exercise prices.
  • Celltrion Inc will likely attempt to minimize the appraisal rights price. We can consider capitalizing on this possibility by shorting Celltrion Inc while going long on the other two companies.

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