Category

Healthcare

Daily Brief Health Care: Zydus Lifesciences Ltd, ClouDr Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong Start of FY24 Riding on US Formulation Business
  • ClouDr Group (9955.HK) 23H1 – Turning Losses into Profits Is Within Reach


Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong Start of FY24 Riding on US Formulation Business

By Tina Banerjee

  • Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) recorded 30% YoY growth in revenue to INR51B in Q1FY24, driven by 57% YoY growth in US formulation business. India business revenue grew 6% YoY.
  • US business growth was driven by new product launches and improvement in base business. The company has launched four new products in the US during the quarter.
  • Zydus Lifesciences expects double-digit growth in India branded formulation business to continue and the U.S. business to grow on a formidable base of FY23 going forward.

ClouDr Group (9955.HK) 23H1 – Turning Losses into Profits Is Within Reach

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • When we discovered that JD Health’s growth could face a downturn crisis, we hope to find a suitable substitute. ClouDr has such potential due to its good performance/reasonable business model.
  • The current anti-corruption campaign could bring new opportunities to ClouDr, who can rely on “hospital first” strategy to take the upper hand, but it should be based on some prerequisites.
  • ClouDr’s business is expected to keep strong growth momentum in 2023. The Company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2024. Investors could see good stock price performance at that time.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Olympus Corp, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Coeptis Therapeutics Holdings, Mckesson Corp, Waters Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Slow Start of FY24; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Continues to Hurt Business
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 23H1 – Has the Turning Point of Performance Really Arrived?
  • Coeptistx (COEP) Deverra Deal Flash Note 21082023
  • McKesson Corporation: Decoding the Success Behind Their Broad-Based Momentum! – Major Drivers
  • Waters Corporation: New Line of SEC Columns & Other Major Developments


Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Slow Start of FY24; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Continues to Hurt Business

By Tina Banerjee

  • Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced muted Q1FY24 result. Revenue increased 8% YoY to ¥208B, while operating profit declined 50% YoY to ¥22B. A one-time gain has inflated the net profit.
  • Revenue missed about 3% compared to the plan. Product shipment hold and parts supply shortages represented about 1.5% points out of the total miss of 3%.
  • Olympus has reiterated FY24 guidance and expects FY24 revenue of ¥914B (+4% YoY) and operating profit of ¥163B (-13% YoY). In FY23, the company missed operating profit guidance.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 23H1 – Has the Turning Point of Performance Really Arrived?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Hengrui’s performance recovery in 23H1 (especially 23Q2) was due to the low base last year caused by pandemic/lockdown. Increasing innovative drugs revenue proportion also reduced the negative impact of VBP.
  • People think the turning point of Hengrui’s performance has arrived, but we hold different opinions.Some big varieties haven’t entered VBP. It would take some time to achieve breakthrough in internationalization.
  • The negative impact of 23H2 anti-corruption hasn’t been reflected in interim report.Even if Hengrui’s performance growth could be back to 20-25% YoY in 2025/2026, over 60 PE/TTM is already expensive. 

Coeptistx (COEP) Deverra Deal Flash Note 21082023

By ACF Equity Research

  • Deverra deal adds two patented assets to COEP product pipeline;
  • Reduces COEP risk profile and so contributes to our valuation range;
  • DVX201 – Unmodified NKC therapy from pooled donor CD34+ cells.

McKesson Corporation: Decoding the Success Behind Their Broad-Based Momentum! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • McKesson Corporation managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • McKesson’s core distribution businesses, particularly pharmaceutical distribution, exhibited broad-based momentum with solid growth across customer channels.
  • We give McKesson Corporation a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Waters Corporation: New Line of SEC Columns & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Waters Corporation delivered an all-around beat in its most recent quarterly result, with organic constant currency growth of 3%.
  • Their organic performance in constant currency was driven by excellent growth in the Industrial segment and the academic and governmental sectors.
  • We give Waters Corporation a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H, Eoflow , Celltrion Healthcare , Novartis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Sinopharm (1099 HK) Added, Country Garden (2007 HK) Deleted
  • Eoflow’s US Subsidiary (Nephria Bio)’s Technology in MXene Advanced Material
  • HSI Sep23 Index Review/​Flows – Sinopharm (1099) IN, CoGard (2007) OUT; 100 Names a Loooong Way Off
  • Weekly Deals Digest (20 Aug) – Celltrion, Sanei, T&K Toka, Costa, DDH1, Tesserent, VinFast
  • Novartis: The Beginning Of A Turnaround Story


Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Sinopharm (1099 HK) Added, Country Garden (2007 HK) Deleted

By Brian Freitas


Eoflow’s US Subsidiary (Nephria Bio)’s Technology in MXene Advanced Material

By Douglas Kim

  • Eoflow (294090 KS)’s shares rose 2.7% to 27,000 won on 18 August with 1.4 million shares traded, which was 5.7x higher than the previous three days of trading.
  • The main reason for this was due to the local news flow on Eoflow’s US subsidiary’s (Nephria Bio) technology on the advanced material MXene.
  • This news flow on MXene is likely to put further positive boost to Eoflow’s share price closer to the tender offer price (or at least limit further downside risk). 

HSI Sep23 Index Review/​Flows – Sinopharm (1099) IN, CoGard (2007) OUT; 100 Names a Loooong Way Off

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, Hang Seng Indices announced the changes to the benchmark Hang Seng Index, the index in the family with the largest AUM.
  • Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK) is ADDED, Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK) – in no surprise, is deleted. 
  • I see HK$4bn a side to trade, and the only “compelling” trade by ADV here is Sinopharm, but correlations with a Peer Basket are low.

Weekly Deals Digest (20 Aug) – Celltrion, Sanei, T&K Toka, Costa, DDH1, Tesserent, VinFast

By Arun George


Novartis: The Beginning Of A Turnaround Story

By Alexis Dwek

  • With its new more focused strategy implemented 18 months ago, Novartis continues to streamline its business activities
  • Novartis’ pipeline has improved, and a new wave of promising drug candidates is coming and represents a major opportunity to regain momentum
  • A strong H1 2023 gives confidence that we are at the beginning of a turnaround story. The Company screens cheap trading on 12x 2024e EPS (post Sandoz).

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Daily Brief Health Care: China Resources Sanju Mdcl & Phrm, Celltrion Inc, Mayne Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18) – TCM Formula Granules VBP, Global Financing Rebound, CR Sanjiu
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Sale of Retail Generic Portfolio Shifts Focus on US Women’s Health and Derma


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18) – TCM Formula Granules VBP, Global Financing Rebound, CR Sanjiu

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For a considerable period of time, the industry has been speculating about when the large-scale VBP of TCM formula granules will officially begin. Now, here it comes. 
  • Primary market and other financing except IPO in European and US biopharma industry shows a significant signal of recovery. However, IPOs remain stagnant. 
  • We analyzed key points about China Resources Sanjiu. Sanjiu is expected to have better performance in 2023 than 2022, but we advise investors to allow a sufficient margin of safety.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

By David Blennerhassett


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Sale of Retail Generic Portfolio Shifts Focus on US Women’s Health and Derma

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) divested its retail generic portfolio. The divestment is part of the transformation strategy which refocused the company on the U.S. women’s healthcare and dermatology markets.
  • Mayne Pharma will announce FY23 result on August 25. With business restructuring and cost management, the company is expected to cut net loss significantly and turn EBITDA positive from FY24.
  • Mayne Pharma announced a share buyback for up to 10% of issued capital, which will be funded through cash reserves. As of April 30, Mayne Pharma held A$239M in cash.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Celltrion Healthcare , Global Health (Medanta), Immix Biopharma Inc, Abbvie Inc, Abbott Laboratories, Johnson & Johnson and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion Inc/Healthcare Merger. Pharm Is Next
  • Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare (Phase I First)
  • Global Health (MEDANTA IN): Record High Quarterly Revenue in Q1; New Hospital Plan Announced
  • Immix Biopharma – Progressing as expected on all fronts
  • AbbVie Inc.: Interesting Advancements In Several Preclinical & Early-stage Clinical Assets – Key Drivers
  • Abbott Laboratories: Can The Acquisition Of Cardiovascular Systems Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers
  • Johnson & Johnson: Unpacking Its Recent Performance Through 4 Key Drivers – Financial Forecasts


Celltrion Inc/Healthcare Merger. Pharm Is Next

By David Blennerhassett

  • It’s finally happening:  biopharmaceuticals developer and producer Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) will acquire Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS).  
  • Inc will issue 0.4492620 new shares for each share in Healthcare. The swap prices of ₩148,853 for Inc and ₩66,874 for Healthcare are firm. 
  • Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) is excluded from the original three-way merger plan, but is expected to be merged with the enlarged Inc/Healthcare entity around July 2024.

Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare (Phase I First)

By Douglas Kim

  • On 17 August, Celltrion Inc announced that it will merge with Celltrion Healthcare. The merger ratio is 0.449262 Celltrion Inc share for each share of Celltrion Healthcare.
  • There was a negative surprise which was that Celltrion Pharm will not be included as part of the three companies merger which has been promised in the past several years. 
  • Overall, we believe that this merger will have a positive impact on Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare’s share prices. 

Global Health (MEDANTA IN): Record High Quarterly Revenue in Q1; New Hospital Plan Announced

By Tina Banerjee

  • Global Health (Medanta) (MEDANTA IN) delivered robust revenue growth and profitability in Q1FY24. Revenue grew 27% YoY and 9% sequentially to INR7.9B. EBITDA margins expanded 250 bps YoY to 25.1%.
  • All the key operating metrics including inpatient and outpatient volume, ARPOB, and ALOS improved. However, occupancy declined to 58.1% in Q1FY24 from 60% in Q1FY23 on increased bed capacity.   
  • Medanta and DLF will develop a 400 bed multi-specialty hospital in Delhi. Ongoing expansion projects are on track to increase the bed capacity to 3,500–4,000 in FY25 from 2,725.

Immix Biopharma – Progressing as expected on all fronts

By Edison Investment Research

Immix reported Q223 results, which were largely as expected. Operational highlights included rolling positive newsflow for CAR-T therapy NXC-201 and interim results for IMX-110 in colorectal cancer patients. With the ramp-up in clinical activity, mainly the NEXICART-1 trial, as well as the two ongoing Phase Ib/IIa trials for IMX-110, management reported R&D expenses of $2.2m, notably higher than $0.6m in the previous year. At end June 2023, cash was $12.7m, supported by a $5m (gross) at-the-market fund-raise in H123. Based on our estimated cash burn, we continue to forecast an operating cash runway into Q224, consistent with management guidance. As we update our FY23 and FY24 expense estimates based on the H123 run rate, roll forward our model and update the net cash figure, our valuation adjusts to $81.1m versus $83.3m previously.


AbbVie Inc.: Interesting Advancements In Several Preclinical & Early-stage Clinical Assets – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AbbVie managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Skyrizi and Rinvoq are exhibiting exceptional growth in immunology, with sales for both treatments increasing over the previous year.
  • Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now approved across ten significant indications and are projecting combined revenue growth this year.

Abbott Laboratories: Can The Acquisition Of Cardiovascular Systems Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Abbott Laboratories managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of analysts.
  • Organic sales showed steady growth, led by solid performances in Medical Devices, Established Pharmaceuticals, and Nutrition.
  • Abbott’s various segments, such as Nutrition, Established Pharmaceuticals, Diagnostics, and Medical Devices, reported solid growth and significant achievements in product innovations.

Johnson & Johnson: Unpacking Its Recent Performance Through 4 Key Drivers – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Johnson & Johnson managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • It was a strong quarter for Johnson & Johnson, with market-leading performance and significant advances in their innovative Pharmaceutical and MedTech pipelines.
  • The company reported solid sales and earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023, raising expectations for the year.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare , WuXi XDC Cayman Inc, Concord Biotech Ltd, Shanghai United Imaging Health, Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co, Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion Merger: Index Implications
  • Celltrion Merger Swap: Conditions & Schedule
  • Celltrion (068270 KS) Merger with Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)
  • WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Bottlenecks Have Held Margins Back. Receivables Ballooning
  • Concord Biotech IPO Trading – Strong Subscription Rates, Peers Have Moved up Since Last Note
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: US$2.5bn One-Way Turnover; Some Changes to Expectations
  • Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Robust Performance Across All Segments Drove Q2 Result
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – A strong start to FY23 across the board


Celltrion Merger: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


Celltrion Merger Swap: Conditions & Schedule

By Sanghyun Park

  • The swap prices, ₩148,853 for Celltrion Inc and ₩66,874 for Celltrion Healthcare, specified below are not tentative prices but confirmed prices. So, the merger ratio has been determined as 1:0.4492620.
  • The key focus now is the appraisal rights exercise. Both offer attractive spreads. Yet, the ₩1T combined ceiling might seem restricted considering potential dissenting Celltrion Inc shareholders exceeding expectations.
  • Nonetheless, considering the strong determination of the company towards this merger, we should consider a strategy of approaching this spread aggressively while keeping the cancellation risk in mind.

Celltrion (068270 KS) Merger with Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)

By Arun George

  • Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) will merger with Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS). Celltrion Healthcare shareholders will receive 0.4492620 Celltrion shares per Celltrion Healthcare share. 
  • The merger requires shareholder (approval by at least two-thirds of the votes of the shareholders present representing at least one-third of the outstanding shares) and Fair Trade Commission approval.
  • The merger ratio, based on regulations, is attractive compared to historical VWAP exchange ratios and multiples. At last close prices, Celltrion Healthcare shares are trading broadly at terms. 

WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Bottlenecks Have Held Margins Back. Receivables Ballooning

By Clarence Chu

  • WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Concord Biotech IPO Trading – Strong Subscription Rates, Peers Have Moved up Since Last Note

By Clarence Chu

  • Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) raised US$188m in its India IPO.
  • Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
  • In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: US$2.5bn One-Way Turnover; Some Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
  • I currently expect 14 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. 

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Robust Performance Across All Segments Drove Q2 Result

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) recorded 23% YoY increase in revenue from hospital operation to THB6 billion in 2Q23, mainly driven by 29% YoY revenue growth from non-Thai patients.
  • Revenue from Thai patients increased 14% YoY and contributed 35% of total revenue. Revenues from Thai and Expat exceeded pre-COVID levels since 3Q20 and continued to grow.
  • Despite an increase in SG&A expenses, EBITDA increased 40% YoY to THB2 billion in 2Q23, with an EBITDA margin of 38.9% in 2Q23 compared to 34.4% in 2Q22.

Basilea Pharmaceutica – A strong start to FY23 across the board

By Edison Investment Research

Basilea announced strong H123 results, including revenues for Cresemba, and in August submitted a new drug application (NDA) to the US FDA for Zevtera. The company continues to engage in discussions with potential (in-licensing and acquisition) partners with the aim of re-filling the clinical development pipeline to bolster its portfolio of anti-infectives. Total Cresemba- and Zevtera-related revenue was CHF80.5m in H123 and grew by 57.2% from the previous year. We increase our valuation for Basilea to CHF797.8m or CHF66.6 per share (from CHF785.0m or CHF65.7 per share previously), largely driven by reduced net debt, foreign exchange considerations and rolling our model forward.


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Daily Brief Health Care: WuXi XDC Cayman Inc, Mirxes Holding, Green Cross and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – The Positives – Sales Have Surged Leading to Market Share Gains
  • Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding Company – The Profit Model in the Post Pandemic Era Needs to Be Verified
  • Green Cross (006280 KS): Turns Profitable in Q2; All Eyes on the Maiden US Approval of Blood Product


WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – The Positives – Sales Have Surged Leading to Market Share Gains

By Clarence Chu

  • WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding Company – The Profit Model in the Post Pandemic Era Needs to Be Verified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although Mirxes has already commercialized its products, its total revenue fluctuated greatly. When the market demand for COVID-19 testing kits sharply declined, the Company’s financial position deteriorated immediately.
  • With the highest incidence rate of gastric cancer worldwide, PRC market is important to Mirxes. How to gain recognition from doctors and enter hospital market is a challenge for GASTROClear.
  • Mirxes is facing survival problem and eager for an IPO. Before Mirxes establishes a clear/visible path to commercialization and a successful profit model in post-COVID era, we would remain cautious. 

Green Cross (006280 KS): Turns Profitable in Q2; All Eyes on the Maiden US Approval of Blood Product

By Tina Banerjee

  • Green Cross (006280 KS) reported decent Q2 performance, with revenue and operating profit increasing 2% and 81%, YoY, respectively. Vaccine and blood products business remained the major growth drivers.
  • The company has re-submitted marketing application for GC5107, a blood derivative product to the FDA, which has accepted it with a target action date of January 13, 2024.
  • If approved, the company aims to enter the U.S. market in 2H24. Supply shortage amid increasing demand makes the U.S. an attractive market for the company’s blood products.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Value Added Technologies, Grifols SA, Kaken Pharmaceutical, AmerisourceBergen Corp, Aspira Women’s Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance Preview: VAT Could Replace Lutronic
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report
  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Q1 Revenue Is Flat; Profit Falls; Bleak Outlook for FY24
  • AmerisourceBergen Corporation: 4 Pillars Behind Their Revenue Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Reports In-Line 2Q23


KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance Preview: VAT Could Replace Lutronic

By Brian Freitas


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 at same level).
  • Spreads could further widen in the short-term. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Q1 Revenue Is Flat; Profit Falls; Bleak Outlook for FY24

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) reported muted operating performance for Q1FY24. Revenue was flat compared to year-ago quarter, while operating profit declined 19% YoY. Net profit decreased 14% YoY.
  • The company has reiterated FY24 guidance of flat revenue and 5% YoY decline in operating profit. However, net profit is expected to increase 23% YoY in FY24 on low base.
  • Kaken is not expected to see any immediate respite as the contribution from the new products will not compensate for the revenue loss from its top selling products.

AmerisourceBergen Corporation: 4 Pillars Behind Their Revenue Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • AmerisourceBergen Corporation managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street in the last quarter.
  • The company observed continued progress across its businesses in the quarter, producing significant revenue growth.
  • We give AmerisourceBergen Corporation a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Reports In-Line 2Q23

By Water Tower Research

  • Aspira Women’s Health reported in-line 2Q23 financial results. Revenues in the quarter were $2.5 million, below our estimate of $3.2 million.

  • EPS for the quarter was ($0.28), above our estimate of ($0.66).

  • AWH continues its good expense control, showing its ability to continue to grow revenue and test volumes, while keeping expenses well under control.


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Daily Brief Health Care: ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai), EMIS Group PLC, Shionogi & Co, Respiri Ltd, Astrazeneca Plc Spons Adr, OpGen , Bristol Myers Squibb Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Pre-IPO ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Slow Development Progress and Gloomy Outlook
  • UnitedHealth/​​EMIS: Provisional Clearance, Estimated Timeline
  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated
  • Respiri – Raise anticipated to fund the Access acquisition
  • AstraZeneca PLC: What Is The Blueprint For Their Recent Performance? – Key Drivers
  • OpGen – Cash concerns dampen active Q2
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb Company: Can Opdualag’s Launch Save Its Market Position? – Key Drivers


Pre-IPO ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Slow Development Progress and Gloomy Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • ImmuneOnco’s execution/R&D efficiency is far from satisfactory. After about seven years since the establishment in 2015, there are no candidates entering phase III trials or close to market launch.
  • The biggest concerns are druggability and safety profile of CD47-targeted candidates. There could be potential R&D failure risks. The pipeline layout around CD47 also makes it hard to diversify risks.
  • It’s challenging for ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) (IOB HK) to hit high-quality license-out deals with reputable big pharma, leading to uncertainties on internationalization. We’re conservative about the outlook. 

UnitedHealth/​​EMIS: Provisional Clearance, Estimated Timeline

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The CMA provisionally found that the acquisition of EMIS Group PLC (EMIS LN) may not result in a substantial lessening of competition. Final decision to be published on 5 October.
  • The Court sanctioning could take place on 16 October. The scheme would become effective on 17 October. Assuming settlement by 31 October, spread is 0.99%/4.81% (gross/annualised).
  • Assuming a break of 1,292p, the market is pricing a 97% probability of deal completion (vs. 6% by 15 June).

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q1FY24, Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) recorded 52% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of co-development and co-commercialization license for ADHD drugs.  
  • Shionogi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company expects FY24 revenue of ¥450B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥150B (up 1% YoY), and net profit of ¥155B (down 16% YoY).
  • Despite competition, Xocova captured a 60% market share of the treatment group patients in Japan. Over a six-month period since emergency approval, more than 70K patients have used Xocova.

Respiri – Raise anticipated to fund the Access acquisition

By Edison Investment Research

Following the proposed acquisition of Access Managed Services in May 2023, Respiri announced that it has raised the A$3m as planned as part of the share purchase plan (SPP), which we believe are the funds needed to close the acquisition (10 August scheduled closing date). The company has raised a total of A$4.35m (including a convertible note with Obsidian Global) to cover the upfront payment (US$1.25m) for the acquisition, working capital to accelerate US commercialisation and the US$0.25m acquisition purchase consideration due three months post-close. Also, in Q423 (ending June 2023), Respiri signed three new remote patient monitoring (RPM) agreements, increasing the total contracted healthcare customers to 13 (across eight US states), while also bolstering its sales pipeline. The acquisition of the Access platform is a key component of management’s commercialization strategy and we anticipate Respiri to be on track to reach break-even in mid-CY24.


AstraZeneca PLC: What Is The Blueprint For Their Recent Performance? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AstraZeneca PLC managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue and earnings.
  • The first half of the year saw a rise in total revenue.
  • We give AstraZeneca PLC a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

OpGen – Cash concerns dampen active Q2

By Edison Investment Research

Despite the active second quarter with developments across all operational fronts, OpGen’s cash concerns have increased the risk of the company as a going concern. With a cash balance of $3.2m at end Q223, OpGen has a cash runway into September 2023, meaning the need for immediate financing will be critical. Key quarterly highlights included the extension of the FIND R&D collaboration, a non-exclusive distribution agreement with Fisher Healthcare and new commercial contracts for both Unyvero and ARES services. While topline growth was a little subdued year-on-year due to one-off income in Q222, the operating loss for the period slightly improved to $5.2m (vs $5.3m in Q222), reflecting tighter cost controls and low clinical activity. If management is able to bridge the funding gap, its efforts in building the commercial groundwork could benefit the second half of the year across Unyvero, Acuitas and ARES. Due to the funding announcement, we have put our estimates and valuation on hold and will reassess as financing updates become available.


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company: Can Opdualag’s Launch Save Its Market Position? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The second quarter’s total company sales were boosted by the sustained strength of its in-line and new product portfolio.
  • Several of their major products throughout the portfolio, including Reblozyl, their cell treatments Breyanzi and Abecma, as well as Camzyos and Zeposia, were responsible for this impressive result.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Eoflow and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (14 Aug) – Eoflow, Chindata, OreCorp, Origin, Estia, InvoCare, Daiken, Kyoden


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