Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

1. OUE C-REIT, OUE H-TRUST – First Thoughts on Merger Scenario
2. Last Week in GER Research: Huya, Bilibili and Qutoutiao
3. Telecom Review (April 2019): DTAC Calls for Truce With CAT
4. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions
5. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut

1. OUE C-REIT, OUE H-TRUST – First Thoughts on Merger Scenario

Last evening, Wall Street Journal reported that Oue Commercial Real Estate Investment Tr (OUECT SP) and Oue Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP) are in discussions to merge in a cash and stock deal. OUE Commercial will offer to buy OUE Hospitality to create a single entity that will remain listed on the SGX.

The enlarged entity will have a combined portfolio value of S$6.7 bil, propelling the enlarged entity to become one of the biggest REITs in Singapore in terms of portfolio size. 

Based on last traded prices, the combined entity will have an enlarged market capitalization of S$2.83 bil, making it the 11^th biggest S-REIT in terms of market capitalization.

For OUE C-REIT, it enjoys fewer benefits from enlarged portfolio but a merger will alleviate concern on the CPPU timebomb.

For OUE H-TRUST, unitholders benefit more from an improve asset/sector diversification and also a potential cash payout.

For sponsor OUE LTD, it will find it easier to recycle assets in an enlarged REIT.

OUE C-REIT and OUE H-TRUST have announced trading halts this morning pending release of announcements. A clarification announcement on the merger is likely to be issued.

2. Last Week in GER Research: Huya, Bilibili and Qutoutiao

Below is a recap of the key IPO/placement research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on the bevvy of placements offered by various companies. After placements by Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) , we saw more offerings from HUYA Inc (HUYA US) , Bilibili Inc (BILI US) and Qutoutiao Inc (QTT US). We update on these three offerings and perhaps big picture, this could reflect a signalling inflection point in these shares. More details below 

In addition, we have provided an updated calendar of upcoming catalysts for EVENT driven names below. 

Best of luck for the new week – Arun, Venkat and Rickin

3. Telecom Review (April 2019): DTAC Calls for Truce With CAT

On April 4, we attended the DTAC shareholders’ meeting and listened to how management defended their strategic decisions in various areas such as legal settlements, marketing, and spectrum bidding. This is our take on their responses to various issue:

• Settlement with CAT. DTAC plans to do a further settlement worth Bt9.05bn nett with CAT to resolve all past bilateral issues, but will resume paying dividends in H2’19.
• Spectrum. Since they still have less spectrum than both AIS and True Move, we can’t really fault them for bidding for the 900MHz spectrum, especially since competition has come down considerably.
• Marketing. Like AIS, they are looking beyond just voice airtime. Mobile gaming is one area they will look at. DTAC’s subsidy on game-centric iPhones and the data airtime that comes with it is significantly more than both True Move and AIS.
• Others. They also managed to get a raise for the Chairman and do finishing touches on the PaySabai  (a payment platform) consolidation. In our view, these are really formalities at this phase, since PaySabai is pretty much wholly owned.

4. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions

• Organo has rebounded from December’s sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. 
• New orders for water treatment systems from the semiconductor and other industries were up 22% year-on-year and exceeded sales by 33% in the nine months to December.
• According to management, orders continued to exceed sales in the three months to March, but are likely to drop below sales in 1H of FY Mar-20 due to the downturn in memory ICs.
• But the situation is not dire, as overall silicon wafer shipments and demand for image sensors both continue to rise, while foundry is doing better than memory.
• Longer term, management expects growth driven by IIoT, power devices,  electric vehicles, and a cyclical recovery in memory. The biggest uncertainty is Chinese domestic demand.
• Some orders have been deferred by one or two quarters, but the company has so far not suffered any cancellations. With a one-year lag from order to revenue recognition for larger projects, management believes it has sufficient visibility to predict improvement in 2H.
• Management has no plans to revise FY Mar-19 guidance, which is for a 14.9% increase in sales, a 43.9% increase in operating profit and a 33.1% increase in net profit to ¥322.5 per share. At ¥3,200 (Friday, April 5 closing price), this translates into a P/E ratio of 9.9x.
• In our estimation, this is cheap enough to be of interest to long-term investors. In the meantime, the calculations of Japan Analytics show upside to a no-growth valuation. Little or no growth appears to be the most likely scenario for FY Mar-20.

• Organo is Japan’s second-ranking industrial water treatment company after Kurita Water Industries (6370). Both provide ultra-pure water processing equipment and related products and services to the semiconductor industry. Kurita ranks first in Japan and Korea, Organo ranks first in Taiwan, and both companies compete in China.

5. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut

• LVS at $64 has runway to $80 by Q4 this year with more core catalysts than many peers.
• Just announced Singapore expansion solidifies LVS first mover MICE advantage as developer of choice in other jurisdictions.
• Singapore outlook adds credibility to LVS pole position in race for Japan IR license before year’s end, adding ballast to our PT.

In this briefing:

1. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Trading Update – Low Free Float, Poor Liquidity
2. SMC (6273 JP): Profit Decline Accelerates
3. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

1. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Trading Update – Low Free Float, Poor Liquidity

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) (NCH) raised about US$136m at HK$16.50 per share, just slightly below the mid point of its IPO price range. We have previously covered the IPO in:

• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

2. SMC (6273 JP): Profit Decline Accelerates

Downturns in the semiconductor, auto and other user industries have caught up with SMC. Sales were down 4.0% year-on-year in the three months to December (the first decline in more than two years) and the decline in profits accelerated, with gross profit down 5.4%, operating profit down 10.6% and net profit down 18.8%. Year-on-year comparisons are likely to remain difficult for at least another two quarters.

In December, we wrote: “Management reports that semiconductor-related demand is down in all markets and that auto-related demand is down in the U.S. Auto sales are also declining in China.” (SMC (6273 JP): Profits Start to Decline ) Last week, WSTS reported the first decline in semiconductor sales in 30 months and the Nikkei newspaper reported that “Japanese chipmaker Renesas Electronics will temporarily halt work at 13 of the company’s 14 production facilities, including all nine domestic plants, due to high inventory levels and possible impact as Chinese demand for automotive and machinery tools plummets.” On Friday, March 8, SMC’s share price dropped by 3%. 

SMC has left FY Mar-19 guidance unchanged, implying a 4.1% decline in sales and a 2.9% decline in operating profit in 4Q. In view of current trends, this looks over-optimistic. The shares are now selling at 17.8x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-19 and 18.6x our estimate for FY Mar-20. These multiples compare with a 5-year historical P/E range of 13.8x – 28.5x. 

3. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
• Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
• Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
• Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
• Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
• Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
• PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Lyft IPO Preview
• Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
• LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
• Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
• Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

In this briefing:

1. Last Week in GER Research: Huya, Bilibili and Qutoutiao
2. Telecom Review (April 2019): DTAC Calls for Truce With CAT
3. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions
4. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut
5. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

1. Last Week in GER Research: Huya, Bilibili and Qutoutiao

Below is a recap of the key IPO/placement research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on the bevvy of placements offered by various companies. After placements by Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) , we saw more offerings from HUYA Inc (HUYA US) , Bilibili Inc (BILI US) and Qutoutiao Inc (QTT US). We update on these three offerings and perhaps big picture, this could reflect a signalling inflection point in these shares. More details below 

In addition, we have provided an updated calendar of upcoming catalysts for EVENT driven names below. 

Best of luck for the new week – Arun, Venkat and Rickin

2. Telecom Review (April 2019): DTAC Calls for Truce With CAT

On April 4, we attended the DTAC shareholders’ meeting and listened to how management defended their strategic decisions in various areas such as legal settlements, marketing, and spectrum bidding. This is our take on their responses to various issue:

• Settlement with CAT. DTAC plans to do a further settlement worth Bt9.05bn nett with CAT to resolve all past bilateral issues, but will resume paying dividends in H2’19.
• Spectrum. Since they still have less spectrum than both AIS and True Move, we can’t really fault them for bidding for the 900MHz spectrum, especially since competition has come down considerably.
• Marketing. Like AIS, they are looking beyond just voice airtime. Mobile gaming is one area they will look at. DTAC’s subsidy on game-centric iPhones and the data airtime that comes with it is significantly more than both True Move and AIS.
• Others. They also managed to get a raise for the Chairman and do finishing touches on the PaySabai  (a payment platform) consolidation. In our view, these are really formalities at this phase, since PaySabai is pretty much wholly owned.

3. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions

• Organo has rebounded from December’s sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. 
• New orders for water treatment systems from the semiconductor and other industries were up 22% year-on-year and exceeded sales by 33% in the nine months to December.
• According to management, orders continued to exceed sales in the three months to March, but are likely to drop below sales in 1H of FY Mar-20 due to the downturn in memory ICs.
• But the situation is not dire, as overall silicon wafer shipments and demand for image sensors both continue to rise, while foundry is doing better than memory.
• Longer term, management expects growth driven by IIoT, power devices,  electric vehicles, and a cyclical recovery in memory. The biggest uncertainty is Chinese domestic demand.
• Some orders have been deferred by one or two quarters, but the company has so far not suffered any cancellations. With a one-year lag from order to revenue recognition for larger projects, management believes it has sufficient visibility to predict improvement in 2H.
• Management has no plans to revise FY Mar-19 guidance, which is for a 14.9% increase in sales, a 43.9% increase in operating profit and a 33.1% increase in net profit to ¥322.5 per share. At ¥3,200 (Friday, April 5 closing price), this translates into a P/E ratio of 9.9x.
• In our estimation, this is cheap enough to be of interest to long-term investors. In the meantime, the calculations of Japan Analytics show upside to a no-growth valuation. Little or no growth appears to be the most likely scenario for FY Mar-20.

• Organo is Japan’s second-ranking industrial water treatment company after Kurita Water Industries (6370). Both provide ultra-pure water processing equipment and related products and services to the semiconductor industry. Kurita ranks first in Japan and Korea, Organo ranks first in Taiwan, and both companies compete in China.

4. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut

• LVS at $64 has runway to $80 by Q4 this year with more core catalysts than many peers.
• Just announced Singapore expansion solidifies LVS first mover MICE advantage as developer of choice in other jurisdictions.
• Singapore outlook adds credibility to LVS pole position in race for Japan IR license before year’s end, adding ballast to our PT.

5. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Changliao AKA 派派(Hong Kong, ~US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Leong Hup – comeback sunny side up
• Polycab India eyes to raise around Rs 1,345 crore through IPO
• Carlyle-backed Metropolis Healthcare’s IPO nears halfway mark on second day
• Eagle Hospitality Trust eyes Singapore IPO to raise up to US$575m
• Cancer Treatment Firm Plans Hong Kong IPO
• Goldman-Backed Chinese Online Pet Store Boqii Plans IPO
• China drone maker EHang delays IPO plan, eyes private funding-sources

This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Map Aktif Follow-On Offering – Lace up for a Potential Long Run
• Zhongliang (中梁地产) Pre-IPO Review – Incredible Growth Bogged Down by Related Party Transactions
• CIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
• PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
• Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained

In this briefing:

1. SMC (6273 JP): Profit Decline Accelerates
2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

1. SMC (6273 JP): Profit Decline Accelerates

Downturns in the semiconductor, auto and other user industries have caught up with SMC. Sales were down 4.0% year-on-year in the three months to December (the first decline in more than two years) and the decline in profits accelerated, with gross profit down 5.4%, operating profit down 10.6% and net profit down 18.8%. Year-on-year comparisons are likely to remain difficult for at least another two quarters.

In December, we wrote: “Management reports that semiconductor-related demand is down in all markets and that auto-related demand is down in the U.S. Auto sales are also declining in China.” (SMC (6273 JP): Profits Start to Decline ) Last week, WSTS reported the first decline in semiconductor sales in 30 months and the Nikkei newspaper reported that “Japanese chipmaker Renesas Electronics will temporarily halt work at 13 of the company’s 14 production facilities, including all nine domestic plants, due to high inventory levels and possible impact as Chinese demand for automotive and machinery tools plummets.” On Friday, March 8, SMC’s share price dropped by 3%. 

SMC has left FY Mar-19 guidance unchanged, implying a 4.1% decline in sales and a 2.9% decline in operating profit in 4Q. In view of current trends, this looks over-optimistic. The shares are now selling at 17.8x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-19 and 18.6x our estimate for FY Mar-20. These multiples compare with a 5-year historical P/E range of 13.8x – 28.5x. 

2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
• Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
• Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
• Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
• Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
• Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
• PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Lyft IPO Preview
• Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
• LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
• Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
• Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

In this briefing:

1. Telecom Review (April 2019): DTAC Calls for Truce With CAT
2. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions
3. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut
4. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle
5. Japan Post Insurance Placement – 3x the IPO Size – Basics and Index Impact

1. Telecom Review (April 2019): DTAC Calls for Truce With CAT

On April 4, we attended the DTAC shareholders’ meeting and listened to how management defended their strategic decisions in various areas such as legal settlements, marketing, and spectrum bidding. This is our take on their responses to various issue:

• Settlement with CAT. DTAC plans to do a further settlement worth Bt9.05bn nett with CAT to resolve all past bilateral issues, but will resume paying dividends in H2’19.
• Spectrum. Since they still have less spectrum than both AIS and True Move, we can’t really fault them for bidding for the 900MHz spectrum, especially since competition has come down considerably.
• Marketing. Like AIS, they are looking beyond just voice airtime. Mobile gaming is one area they will look at. DTAC’s subsidy on game-centric iPhones and the data airtime that comes with it is significantly more than both True Move and AIS.
• Others. They also managed to get a raise for the Chairman and do finishing touches on the PaySabai  (a payment platform) consolidation. In our view, these are really formalities at this phase, since PaySabai is pretty much wholly owned.

2. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions

• Organo has rebounded from December’s sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. 
• New orders for water treatment systems from the semiconductor and other industries were up 22% year-on-year and exceeded sales by 33% in the nine months to December.
• According to management, orders continued to exceed sales in the three months to March, but are likely to drop below sales in 1H of FY Mar-20 due to the downturn in memory ICs.
• But the situation is not dire, as overall silicon wafer shipments and demand for image sensors both continue to rise, while foundry is doing better than memory.
• Longer term, management expects growth driven by IIoT, power devices,  electric vehicles, and a cyclical recovery in memory. The biggest uncertainty is Chinese domestic demand.
• Some orders have been deferred by one or two quarters, but the company has so far not suffered any cancellations. With a one-year lag from order to revenue recognition for larger projects, management believes it has sufficient visibility to predict improvement in 2H.
• Management has no plans to revise FY Mar-19 guidance, which is for a 14.9% increase in sales, a 43.9% increase in operating profit and a 33.1% increase in net profit to ¥322.5 per share. At ¥3,200 (Friday, April 5 closing price), this translates into a P/E ratio of 9.9x.
• In our estimation, this is cheap enough to be of interest to long-term investors. In the meantime, the calculations of Japan Analytics show upside to a no-growth valuation. Little or no growth appears to be the most likely scenario for FY Mar-20.

• Organo is Japan’s second-ranking industrial water treatment company after Kurita Water Industries (6370). Both provide ultra-pure water processing equipment and related products and services to the semiconductor industry. Kurita ranks first in Japan and Korea, Organo ranks first in Taiwan, and both companies compete in China.

3. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut

• LVS at $64 has runway to $80 by Q4 this year with more core catalysts than many peers.
• Just announced Singapore expansion solidifies LVS first mover MICE advantage as developer of choice in other jurisdictions.
• Singapore outlook adds credibility to LVS pole position in race for Japan IR license before year’s end, adding ballast to our PT.

4. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Changliao AKA 派派(Hong Kong, ~US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Leong Hup – comeback sunny side up
• Polycab India eyes to raise around Rs 1,345 crore through IPO
• Carlyle-backed Metropolis Healthcare’s IPO nears halfway mark on second day
• Eagle Hospitality Trust eyes Singapore IPO to raise up to US$575m
• Cancer Treatment Firm Plans Hong Kong IPO
• Goldman-Backed Chinese Online Pet Store Boqii Plans IPO
• China drone maker EHang delays IPO plan, eyes private funding-sources

This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Map Aktif Follow-On Offering – Lace up for a Potential Long Run
• Zhongliang (中梁地产) Pre-IPO Review – Incredible Growth Bogged Down by Related Party Transactions
• CIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
• PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
• Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained

5. Japan Post Insurance Placement – 3x the IPO Size – Basics and Index Impact

Yesterday, post-market close, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)(JPH) announced that it will sell 185m shares (including over-allotment) or 30.8% of Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)(JPI) amounting to US$4bn. JPI plans to buy back up to 50m shares out of these, leaving around US$3.1bn worth of stock to be placed. Out of these 185m shares, 30% will be placed with foreigners.

The selldown is part of the government’s plan for privatization under which JPH is supposed to reduce its stake in JPI and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)(JPB) to around 50%. This was highlighted in the IPO of the three entities in 2015. Thus, the deal is not totally unexpected but the timing of it was never certain. For people interested in more about the history and background, we’ve covered the IPO and JPH sell down in the below series of insights:

• All three IPOs: When the bank is cheap and holdco discount makes the mothership cheaper, then who needs insurance?
• JPI IPO: Three’s a crowd – A minnow amongst giants risks getting lost in the chatter
• JPB IPO: Dividend yield looks enticing versus JGBs yield, while risks are similar
• JPH IPO: Final call to board the mothership. They don’t come much cheaper than this.
• JPH Placement: Japan Post Holdings Placement – Similar Reasons, Similar Price Will Probably Yield Similar Returns

In this insight, I’ll comment on some of the deal dynamics and index weighting impact.

In this briefing:

1. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

1. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
• Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
• Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
• Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
• Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
• Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
• PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Lyft IPO Preview
• Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
• LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
• Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
• Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

In this briefing:

1. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas
2. M: Trimmed 2019-20E Earnings Forecast by 12% and 19%

1. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
• Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
• Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
• Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
• Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
• Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
• PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Lyft IPO Preview
• Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
• LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
• Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
• Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

2. M: Trimmed 2019-20E Earnings Forecast by 12% and 19%

M had 4Q18 net profit of Bt606m (+11%YoY, -10%QoQ). The 2018 earnings was 10% lower than our forecast but in line with our expectation.

• Excluding impairment cost from employee benefit, 4Q18 core earnings grew 26.4%YoY to Bt690m. Meanwhile, gross margin remains flat at 68.3%, close to past four quarters level.
• The 2018 earnings increases 6% driven by gross profit margin expansion to 68.4% from 67.8% in 2017 and 4.3% growth in sales to Bt16bn due mainly to branches expansion and lower raw material costs respectively.
• We maintain our positive view toward its 2019-2020 outlook backed by SSSG recovery and branch expansion plan. However, we cut our 2019-20E earnings forecast by 12% and 19% respectively to factor in weak sales and margin than our previous expectation.

We maintain our BUY rating based on a new target price of Bt88 (27.4xPE’19) or down 8% from our previous target to follow earnings cut.

In this briefing:

1. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions
2. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut
3. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle
4. Japan Post Insurance Placement – 3x the IPO Size – Basics and Index Impact
5. Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – Inflow Turned Cautious in March but MSCI Adjustment Ahead

1. Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions

• Organo has rebounded from December’s sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. 
• New orders for water treatment systems from the semiconductor and other industries were up 22% year-on-year and exceeded sales by 33% in the nine months to December.
• According to management, orders continued to exceed sales in the three months to March, but are likely to drop below sales in 1H of FY Mar-20 due to the downturn in memory ICs.
• But the situation is not dire, as overall silicon wafer shipments and demand for image sensors both continue to rise, while foundry is doing better than memory.
• Longer term, management expects growth driven by IIoT, power devices,  electric vehicles, and a cyclical recovery in memory. The biggest uncertainty is Chinese domestic demand.
• Some orders have been deferred by one or two quarters, but the company has so far not suffered any cancellations. With a one-year lag from order to revenue recognition for larger projects, management believes it has sufficient visibility to predict improvement in 2H.
• Management has no plans to revise FY Mar-19 guidance, which is for a 14.9% increase in sales, a 43.9% increase in operating profit and a 33.1% increase in net profit to ¥322.5 per share. At ¥3,200 (Friday, April 5 closing price), this translates into a P/E ratio of 9.9x.
• In our estimation, this is cheap enough to be of interest to long-term investors. In the meantime, the calculations of Japan Analytics show upside to a no-growth valuation. Little or no growth appears to be the most likely scenario for FY Mar-20.

• Organo is Japan’s second-ranking industrial water treatment company after Kurita Water Industries (6370). Both provide ultra-pure water processing equipment and related products and services to the semiconductor industry. Kurita ranks first in Japan and Korea, Organo ranks first in Taiwan, and both companies compete in China.

2. Las Vegas Sands: Singapore Expansion Impacts Our Valuation Now, Long Before Projected 2025 Debut

• LVS at $64 has runway to $80 by Q4 this year with more core catalysts than many peers.
• Just announced Singapore expansion solidifies LVS first mover MICE advantage as developer of choice in other jurisdictions.
• Singapore outlook adds credibility to LVS pole position in race for Japan IR license before year’s end, adding ballast to our PT.

3. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Changliao AKA 派派(Hong Kong, ~US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Leong Hup – comeback sunny side up
• Polycab India eyes to raise around Rs 1,345 crore through IPO
• Carlyle-backed Metropolis Healthcare’s IPO nears halfway mark on second day
• Eagle Hospitality Trust eyes Singapore IPO to raise up to US$575m
• Cancer Treatment Firm Plans Hong Kong IPO
• Goldman-Backed Chinese Online Pet Store Boqii Plans IPO
• China drone maker EHang delays IPO plan, eyes private funding-sources

This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Map Aktif Follow-On Offering – Lace up for a Potential Long Run
• Zhongliang (中梁地产) Pre-IPO Review – Incredible Growth Bogged Down by Related Party Transactions
• CIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
• PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
• Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained

4. Japan Post Insurance Placement – 3x the IPO Size – Basics and Index Impact

Yesterday, post-market close, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)(JPH) announced that it will sell 185m shares (including over-allotment) or 30.8% of Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)(JPI) amounting to US$4bn. JPI plans to buy back up to 50m shares out of these, leaving around US$3.1bn worth of stock to be placed. Out of these 185m shares, 30% will be placed with foreigners.

The selldown is part of the government’s plan for privatization under which JPH is supposed to reduce its stake in JPI and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)(JPB) to around 50%. This was highlighted in the IPO of the three entities in 2015. Thus, the deal is not totally unexpected but the timing of it was never certain. For people interested in more about the history and background, we’ve covered the IPO and JPH sell down in the below series of insights:

• All three IPOs: When the bank is cheap and holdco discount makes the mothership cheaper, then who needs insurance?
• JPI IPO: Three’s a crowd – A minnow amongst giants risks getting lost in the chatter
• JPB IPO: Dividend yield looks enticing versus JGBs yield, while risks are similar
• JPH IPO: Final call to board the mothership. They don’t come much cheaper than this.
• JPH Placement: Japan Post Holdings Placement – Similar Reasons, Similar Price Will Probably Yield Similar Returns

In this insight, I’ll comment on some of the deal dynamics and index weighting impact.

5. Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – Inflow Turned Cautious in March but MSCI Adjustment Ahead

In our Discover SZ/SH Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of northbound trades via the Shanghai Connect and Shenzhen Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by offshore investors in the past seven days.

We split the stocks eligible for the northbound trade into three groups: those with a market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, and those with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion.

We note that in March, northbound inflows turned more cautious vs strong inflows in February (link to our Feb note) and January (link to our Jan note). Nevertheless we see strong inflows into Healthcare sector, led by Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., (600276 CH). We also highlight Universal Scientific Industrial Shanghai (601231 CH 环旭电子) in the mid cap space that attracted strong northbound inflows.

In this briefing:

1. M: Trimmed 2019-20E Earnings Forecast by 12% and 19%
2. UUUM (3990) Phenomenal Growth but at a Price.

1. M: Trimmed 2019-20E Earnings Forecast by 12% and 19%

M had 4Q18 net profit of Bt606m (+11%YoY, -10%QoQ). The 2018 earnings was 10% lower than our forecast but in line with our expectation.

• Excluding impairment cost from employee benefit, 4Q18 core earnings grew 26.4%YoY to Bt690m. Meanwhile, gross margin remains flat at 68.3%, close to past four quarters level.
• The 2018 earnings increases 6% driven by gross profit margin expansion to 68.4% from 67.8% in 2017 and 4.3% growth in sales to Bt16bn due mainly to branches expansion and lower raw material costs respectively.
• We maintain our positive view toward its 2019-2020 outlook backed by SSSG recovery and branch expansion plan. However, we cut our 2019-20E earnings forecast by 12% and 19% respectively to factor in weak sales and margin than our previous expectation.

We maintain our BUY rating based on a new target price of Bt88 (27.4xPE’19) or down 8% from our previous target to follow earnings cut.

2. UUUM (3990) Phenomenal Growth but at a Price.

This has been a fantastic performer. Since our buy note one year ago, the shares are up just over 3 times. Earnings growth has been very strong, and much better than we had anticipated. The story is even better now than it was then. Unfortunately, the valuations are not! The company is very focussed on growing revenue for the time being. If one is happy to buy a very fast growing new business, then this is still worth looking at.

In this briefing:

1. M: Trimmed 2019-20E Earnings Forecast by 12% and 19%
2. UUUM (3990) Phenomenal Growth but at a Price.
3. Speedcast: Back on Track

1. M: Trimmed 2019-20E Earnings Forecast by 12% and 19%

M had 4Q18 net profit of Bt606m (+11%YoY, -10%QoQ). The 2018 earnings was 10% lower than our forecast but in line with our expectation.

• Excluding impairment cost from employee benefit, 4Q18 core earnings grew 26.4%YoY to Bt690m. Meanwhile, gross margin remains flat at 68.3%, close to past four quarters level.
• The 2018 earnings increases 6% driven by gross profit margin expansion to 68.4% from 67.8% in 2017 and 4.3% growth in sales to Bt16bn due mainly to branches expansion and lower raw material costs respectively.
• We maintain our positive view toward its 2019-2020 outlook backed by SSSG recovery and branch expansion plan. However, we cut our 2019-20E earnings forecast by 12% and 19% respectively to factor in weak sales and margin than our previous expectation.

We maintain our BUY rating based on a new target price of Bt88 (27.4xPE’19) or down 8% from our previous target to follow earnings cut.

2. UUUM (3990) Phenomenal Growth but at a Price.

This has been a fantastic performer. Since our buy note one year ago, the shares are up just over 3 times. Earnings growth has been very strong, and much better than we had anticipated. The story is even better now than it was then. Unfortunately, the valuations are not! The company is very focussed on growing revenue for the time being. If one is happy to buy a very fast growing new business, then this is still worth looking at.

3. Speedcast: Back on Track

Speedcast International (SDA AU) recently reported FY18 (Dec YE) results which showed a solid recovery in 2H. That has allowed the stock to start to recover from a torrid 1H18 performance which saw targets missed. The strong recovery in operating performance in 2H18 has allowed Ian Martin to reset forecasts and he now looks for the EBITDA margin to increase steadily as acquisitions are bedded down. By FY20, we expect Speedcast to be in a much stronger position as rising cash flow leads to lower debts. We have a new 12m target price of A$4.40 based on 11.7x FY20F EPS. We expect SpeedCast to be in a materially better operating position as it moves into FY20, and good cash flow will be used to reduce debt through the year. Operating execution in 1H19 is crucial.