Financials

• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
• The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.
• In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Guangzhou R&F Properties
• JSW Steel Ltd
• Yuexiu Property

• As we noted in last week’s Crypto Crisp, we anticipated a gradual but steady recovery in the market to the levels seen before last weekend’s sharp decline.
• This prediction has proven accurate so far, with some recovery since last week, though we are still far from fully regaining those levels.
• We remain confident that it could take the rest of August to reach those levels again.

• The Board of Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN) and the CVC consortium finally agreed on the terms proposed in June (1,110p cash consideration + 30p dividend). Premium is a decent 54%.
• The non-binding indications and irrevocable commitments from the founders representing 25.5%, create a strong foundation for reaching the 75% shareholder approval needed. I set my TP at 1,100p.
• Taking the closing share price on 13 August, gross spread (to the Cash Offer of 1,140p) is  c.3.6% and the annualised return is c.7.4%. Long.

• Operating revenue decreased JPY1.1bn (-33.3% YoY) to JPY2.3bn, with gross profit increasing JPY378mn (+24.2% YoY) to JPY1.9bn.
• Recurring profit increased JPY28mn YoY to JPY506mn, driven by a JPY378mn rise in gross profit and JPY166mn in foreign exchange gains.
• Assets under management (AUM) expanded to JPY329.7bn, mainly through fundraising for Buyout Fund No. 2.

• Macquarie Korea Infra Fund (088980 KS) announced that it is proceeding with a rights offering capital increase of 500 billion won, which represents about 9.4% of its current market cap. 
• MKIF plans to use higher liquidity increase in the following main areas: Seoul East Underground Expressway – 215 billion won Acquisition of Hanam Data Center – 423 billion won
• In the next 6-12 months, we believe MKIF has a solid chance of outperforming KOSPI (on combined capital gains/dividends basis). 

• Giant Japan insurer reports staggering June 2024 quarter YoY growth, not only from securities gains, but also strong delta in core premiums written
• Weak life insurance premiums is more than offset with well controlled costs, non-life premium income, investment income
• Acceleration of cross-shareholding disposals can keep income high, with AFS totaling JPY13.8 trillion with unrealized gains of JPY2.8 trillion

• IVs move higher in a controlled manner relative to U.S. markets. Combination of technical factors put a dampener on the Options Markets & IV turn lower by Week’s end.
• Many determining factors underwent changes in Vol-Regime Model  – but threshold to switch out of “High & Down” state not achieved.
• Smile & Skew characteristics blow out significantly on the open but settle at lower levels by week’s close.

• Block, Inc., the parent company to Block and Cash App, delivered robust results in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong growth in key business areas aligned with strategic initiatives.
• The company reported a gross profit of $2.23 billion, marking a 20% year-over-year increase.
• The Cash App segment notably outperformed, contributing a gross profit of $1.3 billion, up 23% year-over-year, thanks to the robust performance of the Cash App Card, Cash App Borrow, and Buy Now, Pay Later services.

• Operating revenue increased by JPY11.9bn YoY to JPY65.4bn (+22.2% YoY), driven by growth in financial and real estate businesses.
• Operating profit decreased by JPY7.5bn YoY to JPY2.1bn (-78.4% YoY), with significant declines in the Real Estate Business.
• Profit attributable to owners of parent decreased by 83.6% to JPY2.8bn, impacted by deferred tax liabilities reversal and forex gains.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Longfor Group’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social score is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 

S&U’s H1 trading statement revealed similar trends to those in Q1. Advantage Finance remains in a consolidation phase amid industry discussions with the FCA on collections procedures and forbearance. The collection rate slipped slightly from 88% in Q1 to 87% for the half year. In contrast, Aspen Bridging continues to grow healthily with receivables up 13% since year-end, ‘excellent’ credit quality and a strong pipeline. Significantly, S&U describes the negotiations with the FCA as ‘nearing their conclusion’, which suggests there is potential for recovery at Advantage in H2. The latest 25bp base rate cut will also feed into H2 profitability as all debt is variable and unhedged. We maintain our estimates, which exclude any potential cost of redress, with more detail on the outlook likely to be disclosed at the half-year results on 8 October.

• Aviva plc is a United Kingdom-based insurance, wealth, and retirement business company.
• Its segments include UK & Ireland Insurance, General Insurance, and Aviva Investors, International investments, and Other Operations.

• Each fiscal year ending at December 31. | Year 2024: January to December 2024. | Year 2023: January to December 2023. | 6M 2024: January to June 2024

• Swire Properties (1972 HK) was trending lower on expectations of deletion from a global index in August. Short interest has jumped a lot over the last few months.
• The announcement of the buyback last week took the stock higher. The increased real float from the index deletion will be offset by the buyback.
• Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)‘s ownership of Swire Properties (1972 HK) will increase from 82% to 83.5% following the buyback and cancellation of the shares. Privatisation at some point?

• Lineage (LINE US) , with an IPO market cap of ~$18bn failed the fast-entry threshold of both main global indices with the threshold being more than ~$28bn. 
• Based on the listing date of 25 July 2024, its addition is forecasted for September 2024, December 2024 and February 2025 in US and Global indices.
• Lineage (LINE US) is expected to get added to the Top 1000 US companies index with forecasted demand of ~$340m and ~1.3 ADV at close of 20 September 2024.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• New World Development
• Rakuten
• Shui On Land

• Revenue decreased JPY2.2bn YoY (-26.0% YoY) to JPY6.4bn, with significant declines in the Insurance Agency and Media businesses.
• Operating loss decreased JPY26mn YoY to JPY610mn, with notable improvements in the Insurance Agency and Media businesses.
• Full-year forecast revised: Revenue JPY9.5bn, Operating profit JPY200mn, Recurring profit JPY100mn, Net income JPY70mn, EPS JPY3.19.

• Coinbase’s Q2 2024 earnings presentation revealed several vital insights into the company’s current financial health and its strategic initiatives moving forward.
• As an investment consideration, the company disclosed robust endeavors in regulatory clarity, product development, and a diversified revenue stream along with advances in subscription and services reaching an all-time high despite a decline in transaction revenue from the previous quarter.
• On the regulatory front, Coinbase continues to emphasize significant advancements, noting active participation in shaping cryptocurrency legislation—an undertaking likely to have profound effects on not only the company’s operations but also the broader crypto ecosystem.

• Intercontinental Exchange demonstrated strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2024, achieving record net revenues of $2.3 billion, which is a 7% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis.
• Adjusted operating expenses were controlled effectively, bringing them to a total of $947 million, which is only a 1% increase from the previous year, also on a pro forma basis.
• The company’s balance sheet showed resilience with adjusted leverage reducing from 3.9x at the end of the first quarter to 3.7x pro forma EBITDA by the end of the second quarter.

• Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK), 82%-held Swire Properties (1972 HK), and Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) all announced interim results this week. 
• Of interest was Swire Prop announcing a HK$1.5bn share buyback. Shares popped 12% on the news. 
• Swire Pac remains cheap on a look-through P/B of 0.34x. However, the implied stub and simple ratio (Pac/Props) have just rolled over from multi-year peaks. 

• Tracy and Joe discuss their favorite chat GPT and Claude prompts and how they use them for both serious and fun purposes
• They acknowledge the limitations and risks of using AI in professional settings, especially in large companies like Goldman Sachs
• Marco Argenti, Chief Information Officer at Goldman Sachs, explains his role in ensuring the smooth operation of technology within the company and the evolving use of AI in the financial industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• In a previous insight we forecasted a rally for the Hang Seng Index in August. The picture has not changed, a positive close above 17344.60 is still possible.
• Looking at our MRM SHORT WEEKLY model for the HSI we can see that it has not yet reached overbought levels, so it could rise further in the next weeks.
• Conversely a SHORT trade will be possible from the levels we will indicate below.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings

• Q1 FY03/25 revenue was JPY15.7bn (-15.0% YoY), operating profit JPY2.86bn (-32.6% YoY), net income JPY1.9bn (-40.1% YoY).
• Real Estate Revitalization business saw revenue JPY8.7bn (+13.2% YoY), profit JPY2.3bn (+14.7% YoY), profit margin 27.0% (+0.3pp YoY).
• Hotel and Tourism business reported revenue JPY3.7bn (-54.2% YoY), profit JPY845mn (-68.0% YoY), profit margin 23.0% (-9.9pp YoY).

• Timbercreek’s high dividend payout ratio is unsustainable and relies on one-time gains on sales, suggesting a future dividend cut may be necessary
• The company’s exposure to higher risk loans, particularly in Quebec, and a declining rate environment may lower its net interest margins and profitability
• These factors lead to a bearish outlook on Timbercreek, indicating that the stock’s current valuation may be overly optimistic

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• FY06/24 sales reached JPY28.0bn (+38.0% YoY), operating profit JPY2.7bn (+12.2% YoY), and net income JPY1.7bn (+17.5% YoY).
• Consolidation of K-nine in Q3 and early revenue recognition from projects boosted FY06/24 sales and profits.
• FY06/24 total assets were JPY47.0bn (+JPY2.7bn YoY), liabilities JPY31.9bn (+JPY2.9bn YoY), and net assets JPY15.1bn (+JPY128mn YoY).

• Solana, currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, has made a remarkable resurgence, particularly since the beginning of 2023.
• This comeback is extremely impressive given that many had written off Solana after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire in November 2022.
• FTX had been crucial in promoting Solana and establishing its vital network effect from the start.

• Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
• GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
• The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

• Revenue: JPY15.6bn (-0.3% YoY); Operating profit: JPY1.4bn (-62.3% YoY); Recurring profit: JPY1.3bn (-64.9% YoY); Net income: JPY885mn (-64.1% YoY).
• Asset Value Creation segment: Revenue decreased 3.5% YoY; Operating profit decreased 53.1% YoY; Operating profit margin fell 15.1pp YoY.
• Future Value Creation segment: Revenue increased 34.2% YoY; Operating loss: JPY382mn; Operating loss widened slightly from Q1 FY03/24.

• Unforeseen Volatility: Global risk markets plummeted, driven by external factors, showing crypto’s vulnerability to broader market trends.
• Unique Opportunity: Crypto’s market fundamentals remain strong, presenting unique investment opportunities amidst the global risk asset purge.
• Macro Influences: Japan’s carry trade unwind and weak jobs report led to extreme volatility, impacting both traditional and crypto markets significantly.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• SK Hynix
• Softbank Group
• Tata Motors ADR
• UPL Ltd
• Wynn Macau Ltd

Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) has published its Q125 NAV and trading update. With rental growth continuing, Q125 DPS (+9% vs Q124) is in line with the full year target of 6.0p and was fully covered. The dividend-driven quarterly NAV total return was 1.6%, while the share price yield is almost 8%. Property values appear to have stabilised and CREI expects a benefit from interest rate reductions.

• Consolidated operating revenue increased by JPY887mn YoY (+1.9% YoY) due to higher deferred installment income and reversal.
• Consolidated recurring profit fell JPY2.3bn YoY (-20.9% YoY) due to increased operating expenses and bad debt-related costs.
• JACCS revised its full-year FY03/25 forecast, lowering operating revenue to JPY189.0bn and net income to JPY16.5bn.

• The sharp Japanese market correction has hit the banks hard, and heightened market volatility is likely to remain a feature, at least in the very near term
• Nonetheless, the big five’s results in the first quarter to June-end paint a reassuring picture, and we see that BoJ is pausing on rate rises in these unsettled markets
• Among the big five Japanese bank shares, we highlight Resona and Mizuho in particular for their strong gearing to higher interest rates; we are also positive on SMFG and Concordia

• S&P Global demonstrated a robust performance in the second quarter of 2024, marking significant milestones and strategic advancements, achieved amidst a backdrop of market variability.
• The company reported a 16% increase in total revenue, adjusted for divestitures, with highlights including a notable spike in transaction revenue in the Ratings division by over 60%.
• This division’s success was propelled by increased activity in the public and private markets, notably a 70% boost in private market rating services.

• HLP malls, which focus on China luxury retail consumption, is facing headwind from slowing China economy and weaker consumption
• The retail sales in its malls slowed down and recorded -13% yoy growth for 1H 2024.  Dividend cut was a negative surprise
• However, market is forward looking and stock valuation is too cheap to ignore, we recommend long-term investors can look at this name

• PrimeTime Property Holdings operates a diversified portfolio of thirty properties, spread across Botswana, South Africa, and Zambia.
• The company is currently Botswana’s smallest listed property company in market capitalisation terms, despite having the fourth largest portfolio by asset value, but the company’s intrinsically fully let portfolio offers professionally managed, superior quality buildings, in desirable locations at a currently attractive valuation.
• Latest interim results have seen revenues increased by 6% compared to the prior year’s interim period.

• Aon plc has delivered a robust performance for the second quarter of 2024, marked by a clear focus on delivering on its three-dimensional, three-year strategic plan known as the “3×3 plan.” This approach underscores Aon’s commitment to strengthening offerings across risk capital and human capital solutions, all promoted through its Aon client leadership model.
• The acquisition of NFP, welcoming 7,700 new colleagues, has played a pivotal role, adding substantial scale and extending Aon’s capabilities in critical business areas.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• RDC Properties Limited is a variable loan stock company listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange.
• The company is currently Botswana’s second largest listed property company in market capitalisation terms, despite having the largest portfolio by asset value.
• It currently operates in Botswana, South Africa, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia, Croatia, and the United States of America.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Greentown China’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 

• Westaim aims to create value for shareholders through a recent secondary offering and potential sale of remaining shares in Skyward Specialty
• The company is set to increase its cash position and reduce its discount to intrinsic value, providing an attractive investment opportunity
• Investors can capitalize on Westaim’s near-cash assets and potential upside in the future.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Recurring revenue rose 11.1% YoY to JPY16.5bn, driven by increases in underwriting, investment, and other recurring revenue.
• Recurring profit increased 34.9% YoY to JPY1.6bn, aided by cost control and streamlined operations, with a 9.8% profit margin.
• E/I loss ratio increased 1.5pp YoY to 61.1%, while the operating expense ratio improved by 1.0pp YoY to 32.8%.

• Consolidated ordinary income was JPY14.0bn (-8.2% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY2.8bn (-18.5% YoY) and profit attributable to owners at JPY2.2bn (-9.4% YoY).
• Non-consolidated core gross profit increased to JPY9.7bn (+0.9% YoY), and core operating profit rose to JPY3.3bn (+3.0% YoY).
• Loans outstanding increased 0.6% YoY, while the loan-to-deposit ratio decreased to 77.5% from 77.8% a year ago.

• The market turmoil over the last few trading sessions has not been kind to a simple index rebalance strategy of buying the forecast adds and selling the forecast deletes.
• The overall returns and stock specific returns indicate that trades are more crowded in some indices as compared to others and traders should consider that when position sizing.
• Anecdotally, periods of negative returns are followed by periods of strong returns for the strategy as weak hands are shaken out of their positions.

• It has been a massive bloodbath across the financial markets, not just in crypto.
• The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index experienced its largest intraday percentage drop since 1987.
• The S&P 500 opened about 3.5% down, with the Magnificent Seven stocks plunging around 9% at the opening.

• In this update, we analyzed recent NWD’s corporate actions, which show their de-leveraging plan is on track
• NWD, having the highest gearing among HK RE names, will become the biggest beneficiary if Fed starts a new rate cut cycle
• Valuation is compelling.  There is ample upside assuming a bear case scenario.  It is a BUY

• We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
• We still believe the S&P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
• SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we’re not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Road King’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

• Flywire Corporation has been discussed as a potential acquisition target due to several leading factors that underline its attractiveness in the financial technology sector.
• Flywire’s substantial client base, marked by successful expansion to over 4,000 clients since its Initial Public Offering in 2021, signals strong company growth and market acceptance.
• Serving clients across more than 50 countries and capable of handling transactions in over 140 currencies, Flywire boasts significant global reach and operational capabilities in foreign exchange.

The completion of Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) £110.5m equity raise has reduced gearing, including repayment of its retail bonds, and provides additional flexibility to its capex and disposal programmes. With funding uncertainty lifted, investor attention is likely to refocus on operational performance and the wider outlook for the regional office sector. Robust occupier demand for good quality assets continues to generate rental growth and the tone of the investment market has begun to improve.

• Nikkei looking oversold on all daily, WEEKLY, and MONTHLY timeframes.
• KWEB records strong bullish engulfing candle on weak overall tape Monday.
• MELI versus AMZN ratio chart favoring the former. Technical complexion change.

• US-10 year treasury yield and Singapore 10-year bond yield are closely correlated
• Singapore real estate stocks’ trading performance are therefore related to expectation of a US rate cut
• We expect SG RE stocks will show stable industry fundamentals in upcoming results.  We like our trade idea to Long CLAR SP and SHORT Keppel REIT among S-REITs

• The S&P 500 INDEX is massively oversold WEEKLY (and DAILY).
• Our models indicate the index is trading in the “Tails” area of the LONG model, a reversal is probably imminent, but forecasts in this  price area are less reliable.
• Accumulation can start from Monday’s low prices (around 5100), the reversal will probably come next week.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
• Indika Energy
• New World Development
• Tata Steel Thailand

• The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX) has surged this year as the Artificial Intelligence hype boom has taken over.
• Short notional has risen too, more due to higher stock prices than due to increased shorting. However, there are stocks that have seen big changes in short interest YTD.
• The largest YTD increase in shorts have been in Novatek Microelectronics, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Lite On Technology, Acer, Wistron Corp, China Steel, Zhen Ding Technology Holding and Chailease Holding.

• Financial markets are a humbling mechanism.
• The past two weeks remind us just how difficult predicting the future can be.
• Since our market cycle indicator signalled a crypto slowdown on June 2nd, we have been risk-off.

• July saw 825 new Corporate Governance Reports filed and 8 new “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” policies filed. June saw 1,673 and 5, respectively. That’s 2500 cos.
• We created a tool show every report, provide links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
• We hope this tool will help. It is designed to be a shelf reference. We update the tool once a month, a couple of weeks ahead of the TSE.

• Implied Volatilities (IVs) fell post-FOMC, but reversed course as market sentiment worsened late -week. IV-jump expected as Indian markets catch up to Friday’s U.S. price action 
• Vol-Regime Model still in a “High & Down” vol state. Will switch if large IV change on the open. Short Vega & Risk-Reversal positions will need to be reevaluated. 
• Low PCR, OI call bias & Skew compression: All point to unguarded downside in Nifty50. Next stop 24000.