Category

Financials

Daily Brief Financials: S&P 500 INDEX, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Apple Hospitality Reit, Binance Coin, BlackRock Greater Europe Inves, Royal Bank Of Canada, Toronto Dominion Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Forced Participation
  • Weekly Wrap – 16 Jun 2023
  • Apple (AAPL) – The Big Apple = Most Valuable Company on Planet Earth
  • Q2 Crypto Liquidity Update
  • BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust – Europe is undervalued and under-owned
  • Royal Bank of Canada: Is It Underperforming Versus Its Canadian Rivals? – Key Drivers
  • The Toronto-Dominion Bank: Failed Acquisition Of First Horizon A Positive For Shareholders? – Key Drivers


Forced Participation

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Explosive SPX upside is a result of funds having to chase as most have not participated in the rise above 4,200. 
  • Our 4,500 target may need to be upgraded with a fresh projection at 4,547. Bull energy slated to extend into late June and like buying dips.
  • Will A and H shares be the next rotation flavor? HSCEI 6,600 bull pivot. A50 13,200 resistance.

Weekly Wrap – 16 Jun 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Tata Motors Ltd
  3. Health And Happiness (H&H)
  4. Central China Real Estate
  5. Agile Property Holdings

and more…


Apple (AAPL) – The Big Apple = Most Valuable Company on Planet Earth

By Maverick Equity Research

  • First of all, Apple is the most valuable company on the planet with a $2.8 trillion market capitalisation and eying for the whooping $3 trillion: +41% in 2023 alone.
  • And that equates to a total return in the last 10 years of a whooping 1,266%! Note also it was not a smooth run with some big drawdowns which even they had: 2016: 32%, 2019: 39%
  • Key take-away: business ownership vs stock ticker mentality is key …

Q2 Crypto Liquidity Update

By Kaiko

  • While CeFi liquidity has been on a gradual decline this year, which will be the main focus of this article, DeFi is facing a liquidity crisis of sorts in the last few days as one of the most liquid pools in the space becomes heavily imbalanced, so we’ll start there.
  • After the latest round of fears surrounding Tether, the 3pool moved to a weight of 75% Tether in the last day, as users rushed out of crypto’s largest stablecoin at once.
  • This resulted in Tether depegging to a price of $0.996. This is the most imbalanced the Curve pool has been this year.

BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust – Europe is undervalued and under-owned

By Edison Investment Research

BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust (BRGE) is managed by Stefan Gries, who seeks to invest in the best wealth-creating businesses on a minimum three- to five-year view. The process has proved successful as the trust’s NAV has outperformed the Europe ex-UK market over the last one, three, five and 10 years. BRGE is one of seven funds in the AIC Europe sector, and its NAV total returns rank first over the last one, five and 10 years. It has also generated very acceptable double-digit absolute total returns over the last decade: NAV and share price are both +10.9% pa.


Royal Bank of Canada: Is It Underperforming Versus Its Canadian Rivals? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Royal Bank of Canada delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • Capital Markets had another solid quarter despite a challenging climate for global investment banking fee pools.
  • Besides, the entrenched benefits of their structural low-beta core deposit business persisted this quarter, indicating the latent impact of recent interest rate increases.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank: Failed Acquisition Of First Horizon A Positive For Shareholders? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toronto Dominion delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter with revenues above market expectations but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • During the last quarter, TD’s Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking segment showed steady progress, with increased net income and revenue.
  • Loan volumes and deposits saw modest growth, although there was a shift towards term deposits and higher-yielding investments.

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Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Property, Great Eagle Holdings, Abacus Storage King, JD Property, EURO/US DOLLAR, Bank of Montreal, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Heliad Equity Partners Gmbh and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Abacus Offers ASK – The Back End Trade Is Still Better
  • Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK): Copy That!
  • ASK Listing – Asset Quality Seems to Trump It’s Peer, However Settlement Period Is Long
  • JD Property Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation
  • JD Property IPO: The Bear Case
  • ECB Watch: 6 Charts on How EUR QT Impacts Markets
  • Bank of Montreal: Targeting The Immigrant Population Of Canada – Key Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties
  • Heliad Equity Partners – Plans to merge with FinLab


Abacus Offers ASK – The Back End Trade Is Still Better

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, Abacus Property (ABP AU) units were halted for trading and the Institutional Offer for Abacus Storage King (future ASK AU) units were launched. 
  • The Offer is underwritten by Barrenjoey and Morgan Stanley. The Institutional Offer will be completed by Friday, and results announced Monday 19 June, with trading halt lifted. 
  • Then the Retail portion of the Offer will be conducted til 27 July. EGM the same day. Delayed settlement trading of ASK and New ABP (ABG AU) will start 1Aug.

Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK): Copy That!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Ever since Lo Ying-shek, the founder of Great Eagle (41 HK) passed away in 2006, as invariably happens, family relations deteriorated as the children sought to assert control over GE.
  • Matters reached a crescendo when Lo’s wife brought legal action against HSBC International Trustee in 2016 as executor of a large % of shares into GE. 
  • That plaintiff action failed, as did subsequent appeals. The latest battle centers on a judge’s ruling which extensively incorporated (read copied) the defendant’s submission in his final decision. 

ASK Listing – Asset Quality Seems to Trump It’s Peer, However Settlement Period Is Long

By Clarence Chu

  • Abacus Property (ABP AU) is looking to de-staple Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) , its self-storage business. The offer will be underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Barrenjoey.
  • Offering 1 ASK share for every 5.6 ABP share, the REIT is looking to raise A$225m (US$153m) via offering 159.6m shares at a A$1.41-1.47/share price band.
  • The deal is effectively an IPO, and after having been in the making for some time now, it is well flagged as well.

JD Property Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • JD Property (JDP HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • JD Property (JDP) develops and manages modern infrastructure, consisting primarily of logistics parks, as well as business parks and other assets in China and in Asia.
  • We had looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes, in this note we will discuss our initial thoughts on valuation. 

JD Property IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • JD Property (JDP HK)/JDP, a leading modern infrastructure provider in Asia, has filed for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO. JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) owns a 74.96% stake.
  • In JD Property IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on the low Fund AUM mix, declining fee rate, EBITDA flattered by FV changes, EBITDA lagging revenue growth, and high cash burn.

ECB Watch: 6 Charts on How EUR QT Impacts Markets

By Andreas Steno

  • With EUR QT now increasing in speed we look at the ramifications
  • EUR liquidity matters for EUR markets and FX/Rates in particular
  • QT and TLTROs will now lead to declining liquidity in EUR 

Bank of Montreal: Targeting The Immigrant Population Of Canada – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bank of Montreal delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • Despite the changing climate, BMO produced strong results, benefiting from a full quarter of Bank of the West results.
  • The bank’s performance reflects the continued strength of its highly diversified business mix, with good PPPT growth in its Canadian and American Personal and Commercial Banking businesses, while weaker markets and lower client activity impacted the Wealth and Capital Markets businesses.

Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Heliad Equity Partners – Plans to merge with FinLab

By Edison Investment Research

Heliad Equity Partners (HEP) saw a decline in its NAV per share between end-2021 and end-March 2023 of c 48% to €7.35, mostly on the back of the de-ratings of listed holdings (in particular flatexDEGIRO), as well as an NAV dilutive share issue in March 2023. That said, the valuations of HEP’s private holdings have remained largely resilient during recent funding rounds, and Enpal even carried out a new round in Q422 at a significant uplift to its previous valuation. Moreover, flatexDEGIRO’s share price has rebounded by c 32% in the year to date. HEP recently announced its intention to enter into merger negotiations with FinLab (its major shareholder and owner of HEP’s investment manager).


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Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Property, State Bank Of India, Chiba Bank, SBFC Finance Limited, Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank, Sunac China Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value
  • CPSE / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in June
  • Chiba Bank – Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs
  • SBFC Finance Pre-IPO – Has Grown Fast While Maintaining Asset Quality
  • Vietnamese Banks Screener; Adding MBBank to Our Core Pick Techcombank
  • Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sunac China Holdings, Vedanta Resources


Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

By Arun George

  • Abacus Property (ABP AU) has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.
  • A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.
  • The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.

CPSE / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • The CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will have its quarterly rebalancing at the close on 29 June.
  • There are no constituent changes for the indices in June but there will be capping and float changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on many stocks.
  • Both indices have performed well over the recent past and active investors can take advantage of the passive flows to increase or decrease existing positions.

Chiba Bank – Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs

By Daniel Tabbush

  • If there is no relief on yield curve control (YCC) anytime soon, seek banks with low JGBs
  • Chiba Bank is one of few banks in Japan where JGBs are nearly a rounding error vs assets
  • A pure play on an improving Japan, focused next door to Tokyo, with falling NPLs

SBFC Finance Pre-IPO – Has Grown Fast While Maintaining Asset Quality

By Ethan Aw

  • SBFC Finance Limited (1547353D IN) is looking to raise up to US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold. 
  • Even through COVID-19, it had managed to more than double its AUM through its branch expansion efforts. However, its NIM declined over the track record period and profitability growth slowed. 

Vietnamese Banks Screener; Adding MBBank to Our Core Pick Techcombank

By Victor Galliano

  • We maintain Techcombank as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, given its attractive valuations, solid pre and post provision returns and its fortress balance sheet
  • We add MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations, premium ROE and sound balance sheet metrics; we are neutral on Vietcombank
  • VP Bank remains one to watch; its NPL ratio has worsened further to March 2023 and it is the negative outlier of the peer group on credit quality

Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sunac China Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Financials: Kenedix Office Investment Co, Kenedix Retail REIT, Hailan Holdings , Link REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Kenedix Office/Resi/Commercial Three-Way Merger – Size Matters and Index Flows Do Too
  • Kenedix Merger: Office, Residential, Retail & Index Implications
  • Hailan (2278 HK): Yeung Bets On Shareholder Apathy
  • Kenedix Office Investment (8972 JP): Merger with Kenedix Residential and Kenedix Retail REIT
  • LINK REIT – the Largest REIT in Asia, Firmly on a Post-Covid Recovery with Attractive Valuation


Kenedix Office/Resi/Commercial Three-Way Merger – Size Matters and Index Flows Do Too

By Travis Lundy


Kenedix Merger: Office, Residential, Retail & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Kenedix Office Investment Co, Kenedix Residential Investment and Kenedix Retail REIT have announced a three-way absorption merger to create Kenedix Realty Investment Corporation.
  • The increased size and liquidity of the merged entity will put the stock on the radar of active investors and there could be a re-rating higher.
  • There will be some passive flows into the merged entity at the time of merger implementation and this will help the stock outperform its peers.

Hailan (2278 HK): Yeung Bets On Shareholder Apathy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 8 May, small-cap PRC property play Hailan Holdings (2278 HK) announced a voluntary Offer from Yueng Man, Hailan’s controlling shareholder.
  • The Offer Price is HK$3.38/share, a miserly 5% premium to last close, and a 60% discount to the RNAV. The Composite Doc is now out
  • The key condition is Yueng getting 90% of disinterested shareholders to tender. That looks a stretch, yet minorities are disengaged. Not one has turned up at the last three AGMs.

Kenedix Office Investment (8972 JP): Merger with Kenedix Residential and Kenedix Retail REIT

By Arun George


LINK REIT – the Largest REIT in Asia, Firmly on a Post-Covid Recovery with Attractive Valuation

By Jacob Cheng

  • We conducted fundamental analysis on Link REIT, the largest REIT In Asia, who owns and operates retail assets, office buildings and logistics in the APAC region
  • Link REIT has strong track record for capital management, we expect that to continue.  In the LT, Link REIT is on the path to grow its fund management business
  • Link REIT is currently trading at 0.64x P/B and 6% dividend yield, which is attractive from a historical perspective

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Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Property, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Hailan Holdings , JD Property, DBS, HDFC Bank, Binance Coin, Intercontinental Exchange, Sino-Ocean Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
  • Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting
  • JD Property IPO: The Bull Case
  • DBS – Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined
  • Yet Another Instance of Toxic Work Culture in Private Sector Banks
  • Market Makers Flee Binance.US
  • JD Property Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Small Amongst Giants, and Sentiment Isn’t the Greatest
  • Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Noteworthy Success Of The Multi-Currency
  • Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sino-Ocean Service, Tata Motors ADR


Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

By Travis Lundy


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.7% resulting in a one-way trade of A$16.6m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
  • The largest inflows are on Scentre Group, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and Region Re, while the largest outflows are on Stockland, Mirvac Group, Dexus Property and Goodman Group.

Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting

By Arun George

  • Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)‘s voluntary conditional offer from its controlling shareholder at HK$3.36 per share is open. The IFA opines that the offer is fair and reasonable.
  • The offer is subject to a 90% minimum acceptance condition – the offeror holds at least 90% of the offer shares and the disinterested shares.
  • The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. The current gross spread of 5.0% equals the premium to the undisturbed price.  

JD Property IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • JD Property (JDP HK)/JDP, a leading modern infrastructure provider in Asia, has filed for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO. JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) owns a 74.96% stake.
  • JDP is the third and second largest modern infrastructure provider in Asia and China, respectively, in terms of GFA, according to JLL.
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, reducing dependence on JD Group, core business’ accelerating organic growth and improving margin.

DBS – Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Oil is down dramatically from USD83.26 in April this year to USD67.37 now
  • DBS saw a surge in NPLs in FY16 from the oil price decline in that time
  • There appears to be some correlation between DBS and oil prices

Yet Another Instance of Toxic Work Culture in Private Sector Banks

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Obnoxious video of bank official abusing staff for not meeting unrealistic sales targets
  • Issue is widely prevalent in the private sector financial system demonstrating poor leadership, communicational and motivational training
  • Setting aggressive sales target results in mis-selling, undermines confidence in the financial system and regulatory intervention may impact profitability.

Market Makers Flee Binance.US

By Kaiko

  • Binance.US is bleeding. One week after the SEC lawsuit, market makers and traders have fled the exchange en masse.
  • Liquidity, as measured by aggregated market depth for 17 tokens on the exchange, has fallen nearly 80% over the past week.
  • On June 4, the day before the SEC lawsuit, market depth was $34mn. Today, market depth is just $7mn.

JD Property Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Small Amongst Giants, and Sentiment Isn’t the Greatest

By Clarence Chu

  • JD Property (JDP HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • JD Property (JDP) develops and manages modern infrastructure, consisting primarily of logistics parks, as well as business parks and other assets in China and in Asia.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes, in this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Noteworthy Success Of The Multi-Currency

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Their interest rate markets also saw volume rise in the first quarter due to increased hedging activity from central bank activities and banking concerns.
  • Intercontinental Exchange also had significant volumes in its SONIA contract, up 12% from the previous year.

Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sino-Ocean Service, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Financials: Mason Group Holdings , Nikkei 225, Hongkong Land, Edelweiss Financial Services, Powerlong Real Estate Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Mason Group (273 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.0338 Per Share
  • Asia Macro Chart Trajectory
  • Hong Kong Land HKL SP – a Long-Term Value Play on Hong Kong Office Recovery
  • Mason (273 HK): Red Emerald’s Scheme
  • Edelweiss: Retail Credit Business Is Now Scaling Up | Rest of the Businesses Continue to Grow Strong
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings, Sunny Optical


Mason Group (273 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.0338 Per Share

By Arun George

  • Mason Group Holdings (273 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Red Emerald Capital at HK$0.0338 per share, a 20.7% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.0280 per share (30 May). 
  • The key conditions are SFC approval and the scheme being approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The offer price has not been declared final.
  • Four shareholders hold a blocking stake – three have provided irrevocables while the other will accept due to the attractive ROI. Therefore, there is a clear pathway to completion.

Asia Macro Chart Trajectory

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Macro charts for US 10yr yield, Nikkei (bull), Kospi 200 (bear), HSI (bear) and Nifty (bull) featured. Taiwan falls into the bull camp.
  • Cycle: Bullish above SPX 4,200 (rally failure if back below this pivot level). NDX trendline buy  support at 13,950. Risk that tech is stretched near term.
  • Asia is well positioned for gains once we get through some overbought readings. HK and Korea the weak links.

Hong Kong Land HKL SP – a Long-Term Value Play on Hong Kong Office Recovery

By Jacob Cheng

  • We explored the primary share price drivers for HKL, the prime office landlord in Hong Kong, including share buybacks, HK office recovery and as a reopening/ESG thematic play. 
  • HKL has been constantly evaluating its capital management strategy.  Despite interest rate environment has changed substantially, HKL still sees buyback (7% earnings yield) as a good option
  • Valuation remains attractive.  Part of the risks is priced in.  Although it can remain as a value trap, it can unlock its value and re-rate over the long term.

Mason (273 HK): Red Emerald’s Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • After broker Mason Group (273 HK) was suspended pursuant to Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code on the 31 May, it has now announced a privatisation by way of Scheme at HK$0.0338/share.
  • The Offer price is only a 20.7% premium to last close, and a 12.7% premium to the three-month average closing price. It has not been declared final.
  • The Offeror is Red Emerald. Shareholders with 47.55% of shares out have given irrevocables in support of the Scheme. 

Edelweiss: Retail Credit Business Is Now Scaling Up | Rest of the Businesses Continue to Grow Strong

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss reported a decent Q4FY23. Across businesses, Edelweiss reported strong growth. The credit business is also now scaling up with Q4FY23 disbursements at INR 400cr in housing finance.
  • The demerger of Nuvama Wealth Management is now complete with record date as Jun 2 2023. Nuvama is on track to list on the exchanges by the end of July.
  • Based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation, Edelweiss can be valued at INR 15000cr+. At the current market cap of INR 4400cr, it is trading at a huge discount of 70%+.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings, Sunny Optical

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Financials: Tian An China Investment, Stylam Industries, Hopson Development, RHB Capital Bhd, Rothschild & Co, Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties, Bancolombia Pref and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Tian An In AGL’s Crosshairs
  • Stylam (SYIL IN): Laminate Growth Play In India with 25% CAGR Growth
  • Weekly Wrap – 09 Jun 2023
  • Malaysian Banks March 2023 Results Screener; Maintaining RHB Bank and CIMB on Our Buy List
  • Concordia/Rothschild: Simplified Offer Filing
  • Wanda Group Expects to Pay $281 Million Note Due Saturday
  • Grupo Gilinski – Grupo Sura; The End of the BanColombia (CIB US) Affair


StubWorld: Tian An In AGL’s Crosshairs

By David Blennerhassett


Stylam (SYIL IN): Laminate Growth Play In India with 25% CAGR Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • Stylam Industries (SYIL IN) is a play on the Indian laminate space with a 25% CAGR growth predicated on growth in both international and domestic markets.
  • The stock trades at 23.6x/19x FY24e/25e. While this is not cheap by any stretch of the imagination, the company is a high grower/best in class amongst its competitors. 
  • Stylam Industries (SYIL IN)  is completing an expansion to increase capacity by 40% in FY24 and expanding in a new segment that can double its revenue over FY23-25e. 

Weekly Wrap – 09 Jun 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China SCE
  2. China Hongqiao
  3. Times China
  4. Greentown China
  5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…


Malaysian Banks March 2023 Results Screener; Maintaining RHB Bank and CIMB on Our Buy List

By Victor Galliano

  • Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we maintain RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list; we add funding and liquidity metrics to our screens
  • RHB Bank is our top pick for its strong post-provision profitability, its high CET1 ratio understating its ROE, and it is attractive valuations on PE multiples and PBV ratios
  • CIMB remains our deep value pick as we believe it has potential to improve post-provision returns; the constructive return outlook combines positively with CIMB’s modest valuations, including its PEG ratio

Concordia/Rothschild: Simplified Offer Filing

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Concordia has filed the draft offer memorandum and started acquiring Rothschild & Co (ROTH FP) shares in the market (limit c.8.2 million) to ensure success. All regulatory approvals have been obtained.
  • The adjusted offer price is €46.6/share, or €38.6/share (ex-extraordinary distribution, 7.6x NTM Fwd P/E, rather cheap, in my view), which will enable the concert to partly finance the offer. 
  • For comparison, Greenhill is being taken at 18.5x Fwd P/E. Nevertheless, I believe the offer will be accepted. Spread is 0.75%/2.78% (gross/annualised).

Wanda Group Expects to Pay $281 Million Note Due Saturday

By Caixin Global

  • Dalian Wanda Group Co.’s property management unit expects to scrape up enough cash to pay off a 2 billion yuan ($281 million) note due this Saturday, the company said.
  • But with 8.9 billion yuan of domestic notes and offshore bond due within two months, Dalian still needs to dump some of its shopping malls and hotels.
  • The troubled property-to-entertainment conglomerate was reported to be considering such moves earlier this week.

Grupo Gilinski – Grupo Sura; The End of the BanColombia (CIB US) Affair

By Victor Galliano

  • The agreement between Grupo Gilinski and the Grupo Empresarial Antioqueño (GEA) grants Gilinski control of food company Nutresa, whilst Gilinski exits from stakes in Grupo Sura and affiliate Grupo Argos
  • This deal implies the end of Grupo Gilinski’s ambition to control BanColombia and even marks the end of Gilinski exerting activist shareholder influence over the bank’s management
  • BanColombia’s fundamental outlook, having improved to 1Q23, now looks tougher, not least due to the heightened political risk of the populist Petro administration; use the share price bounce to sell

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Daily Brief Financials: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tian An China Investment, Binance Coin, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Kotak Placement – Has Sold Before, Stock Has Run-Up Recently but It Has Still Underperformed
  • Tian An China Investments (28 HK): Trading Halt, Privatisation by Allied Group?
  • The Data Behind the SEC’s Big Week
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development


Kotak Placement – Has Sold Before, Stock Has Run-Up Recently but It Has Still Underperformed

By Sumeet Singh

  • CPPIB aims to raise around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)
  • This is not the first time that CPPIB will be selling down some of its stake, the previous deal held up well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Tian An China Investments (28 HK): Trading Halt, Privatisation by Allied Group?

By Arun George

  • Tian An China Investment (28 HK) and Allied (373 HK) entered a trading halt “pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” Allied owns 55.72% of Tian An.
  • It is likely that Allied Group is seeking to privatise its subsidiary Tian An. Tian An’s other substantial shareholders have a history of sell-downs which facilitate an offer.
  • Allied Properties (H.K.) (56 HK)/APL’s partial offer for Tian An in 2011 and Allied’s privatisation of APL in 2020 point to a 20.8%-34.3% premium or HK$5.01-5.57 per share offer.

The Data Behind the SEC’s Big Week

By Kaiko

  • This has been perhaps the single most consequential week for crypto in the U.S., as the SEC charged Coinbase with operating an unregistered securities exchange and charged Binance, Binance.US, and CEO Changpeng Zhao (“CZ”) with a variety of securities law violations. 
  • Just two months ago, we chronicled the CFTC’s charges against Binance and CZ, which primarily focused on Binance’s alleged efforts to onboard high-volume U.S. traders onto Binance, rather than Binance.US (for simplicity, “Binance” will refer to the international exchange and “Binance.US” its U.S. affiliate).
  • This analysis showed that despite the creation of Binance.US in 2019, Binance’s trading had actually become more skewed towards U.S. hours, in fact resembling U.S.-based exchanges like Coinbase.

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Financials: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Capital One Financial, Times China, China Jinmao Holdings, CNY and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Trailing A Share Weakness
  • US Banks – A Closer Look at Office Exposure and Revisiting Capital Adequacy
  • Times China – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, China Jinmao Holdings, Greentown China, Times China
  • China Recovery – Industrial

HSI Trailing A Share Weakness

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI has been our top short bet where we locked in some short gains at 18,100/300 and now see this bounce as an opportunity to re set the HSI short.
  • Underlying weakness in China A shares sets the tone for HK.
  • Trend and price resistance at 19,300/500 stand out as a key turn zone with a little help from an SPX give back sequence.

US Banks – A Closer Look at Office Exposure and Revisiting Capital Adequacy

By Victor Galliano

  • Credit quality risks are rising in US commercial real estate (CRE) and specifically in office property; furthermore, the prospect of increasing US Treasury bond issuance may heighten T-bond volatility
  • We screen for US banks that have strong capital ratios, that can deliver premium returns and can confront the rising credit quality challenges, especially in CRE
  • We maintain buys on M&T Bank and Western Alliance, adding Capital One with its healthy capital ratios and low office exposure; we recommend profit taking on First Horizon

Times China – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Times China’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, China Jinmao Holdings, Greentown China, Times China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


China Recovery – Industrial

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The industrial sector is exhibiting signs of a prolonged slowdown, similar to Real Estate and Household trends.
  • This Note is the third in a series on China’s econChina’scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.
  • Qingdao City on Friday reduced the deposit requirement for purchasing homes, following a trend set by several other cities.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG), Amman Mineral Internasional, Cons Tomoka Land Co Florida, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • No Foreigner ID/Trade Report Obligation Starting Dec 14: Impact on Event Trading in Korea
  • MUFG – What if No Yield Curve Control Relief?
  • Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights
  • CTO Realty Growth: One Of The Few Investable REITs Out There
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Yuexiu Property

No Foreigner ID/Trade Report Obligation Starting Dec 14: Impact on Event Trading in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The abolition of the foreign investor registration system was approved in a Cabinet meeting. They will be promulgated on June 13th and implemented starting December 14th of this year.
  • This change is not just about reducing administrative tasks, as it also eliminates the reporting obligations of foreign investors, thereby reducing their position exposure risk.
  • This could improve event outcome and price prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is crucial to keep a close eye on event trading when this measure takes effect in December.

MUFG – What if No Yield Curve Control Relief?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There may be no imminent yield curve control relief in Japan
  • MUFG market capitalization is up 2-3x and at a near decade peak level
  • Without YCC relief maybe the bank’s 60% rise in NPLs in the past 4 years is better noticed

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


CTO Realty Growth: One Of The Few Investable REITs Out There

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • CTO Realty Growth, Inc. possesses the necessary characteristics to outperform the market.
  • Diminishing credit spreads and more predictable inflation could result in tailwinds for best-in-class cyclical REITs such as CTO.
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REITs”) situated in the United States have underperformed the S&P 500 (SP500) by approximately 10% during the past year, which should not be a surprise as factors such as rising credit

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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