Financials

• Blackstone (BX US) is looking to raise around US$834m through a secondary block deal. This will be a clean-up as Blackstone fully exits from Embassy Office Parks REIT (EMBASSY IN).  
• The deal is a large one to digest, at approximately 397.2 days of three month ADV and 20.7% of current mcap.  
• In this note, we will talk about the selldown and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Q3 2023 results for the Philippine Stock Exchange / (PSE PM) were uneventful. EBITDA margins were rock solid at>60%, and net margins were>40%. Revenues and profits were up 1.3%/51% YoY.
• Cash and Investments at 4.8 bn pesos account for 32% of the market capitalization. The cash will aid in acquiring the remaining 79% stake in PDS.
• Trading at 19x/17x FY23e/24e and a dividend yield of 5.3%/5.9%, there are several catalysts to drive earnings over the next few years (and investors are paid to wait). 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China South City

• KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB) will replace Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 29 December.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 0.55% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 455m. There is nearly zero funding flow on the other index members.
• Passive trackers will need to buy close to 1.2% of KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)‘s free float while selling around 1.6% of float in Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 

• We see Ueda’s pause on lifting its negative rates policy as temporary, and we expect that this policy change could occur as early as January
• Despite this monetary pause in tightening and the fall in 10Y JGB yields, we are encouraged by the rise in long term loan yields in the BoJ data to October-end
• We reiterate our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, MUFG and Concordia

• India Shelter Finance (0570670D IN) raised around US$144m from its India IPO.
• India Shelter Finance (ISF) is a retail-focused HFC targeting the self-employed customer with a focus on first time home loan takers in the low and middle income group.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 11 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
• Some stocks were added to global indices last month while some could be added in February. There are potential index implications for the NIFTY Index and Nifty Next 50 Index too.
• The upward migrations have continued to outperform the downward migrations. The largest recent outperformance has come from stocks expected to move from the Mid Cap to the Large Cap segment.

• While the profitability of Stylam Industries (SYIL IN) is growing healthily (>30% YoY) in H1 FY24 due to margin expansion, revenues are trending at -4.5% YoY.
• The company became net cash in H1 FY24 (73 crore INR)  and zero gross debt. A strong balance sheet would aid in the company’s expansion plans. 
• Trading at 23x/18x FY24e/25e, we see strong growth ahead for the company as it cements its position as one of India’s top laminate export players. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Yuexiu Property

• Muthoot Microfin (1363943D IN) is looking to raise up to US$116m in its Indian IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$163m.
• Muthoot Microfin (MMF) is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
• In our previous note, we looked at the company’s performance. In this note, we talk about the company’s RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comp and valuation.

• The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures’ spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.
• Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures’ calendar spread trading.
• Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.

In its update for the August to December period, S&U posted good growth in its net receivables balances in both Advantage and Aspen. Advantage reported a drop in live collections to 91% (H123: 94%), but bad debts and voluntary terminations remain below budget. Aspen continues to experience good volume with transactions improving in the quarter, while repayments remain above budget. Additionally, group borrowings reached £209m as S&U continues to fund its growth initiatives. Management announced that following a review by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), it has appointed a Skilled Person to help further align Advantage Finance’s processes with the FCA’s standards including the new Consumer Duty requirements.

In H124, Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) continued to benefit from robust occupier demand, underpinning earnings and dividends. Rents continued to grow and occupancy increased, with further near-term progress in sight, reflected in our increased EPRA earnings forecast. Asset management is also supporting capital values, although overall, following market trends, these continue to drift and NAV is modestly lower.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Meituan

• On 5 December, Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) – a holding company for two regional banks based in Tokushima Prefecture and Kagawa Prefecture – announced (gasp!) a NEW SHARE OFFERING. 
• It offered 28mm shares + 4.2mm greenshoe – a share count increase of 20%. At 0.27x book. This IS unusual. Especially when banks are being asked to produce better ROC. 
• The deal priced at ¥366. We’re there now. Banks have been sold. It is worth looking at where we are and what could happen next. It’s cheap.

• LICHF reported a decent Q2FY24 led by a strong NIM (3.04%). Growth has been somewhat subdued due to technical issues, however, these have been resolved and October is tracking well.
• LICHF reiterated its full-year FY24 NIM guidance at 2.6-2.8%. Credit cost, except for one-off item of INR 104cr in Q2FY24, continues to be below 50bp annualized.
• Despite a subdued H1FY24, LICHF has maintained its FY24 AUM growth guidance to 10%+. This implies that LICHF can grow AUM at 5%+ QoQ over the next two quarters.

• The S&P/ASX 200 INDEX is currently up 3 weeks and OVERBOUGHT, a correction is expected very soon, probably this week.
• The pullback is an opportunity to add LONG positions, the area to enter LONG is 7400-7300.
• If the rally continues after the pullback, it can continue into the end of January.

• Beijing and Shanghai laid out long waited stimulus policies on property market, include 1) lower property down payments ratio;2) lower mortgage loan rate;
• 3) lower recognition standard for ordinary home. The key is to encourage households to add leverage.
• We treat the financial stimulus as one-off positive shock to the home transaction markets in the two cities,  especially benefiting 1Q24 sales for Beike due to…

• Blockchain gaming peaks industry interest with unprecedented content quality. With the combined market cap of almost 200 leading projects being less than DOGE, there is ample room for future growth.
• In 2023, 133 deals closed, securing $1.1B in funding, marking a 66% drop from 2022. Anticipating a reversal in the next ~6 months due to increased attention and capital.
• High Web3 project costs drive competition for <1M gaming-inclined wallets. A battle for player liquidity will favor projects with versatile user bases, efficiently funneling between games for market dominance.

• We rate Japan Exchange as our 2024 high conviction buy in exchanges, for its attractive valuations, as well as its potential for increased market activity and big data revenue growth
• We believe that Japan Exchange is the exception to the rule that DM exchanges need to diversify their revenue bases, as it is under less de-regulatory pressure
• We also stick with Hong Kong Exchange as the deep value pick, as well as Deutsche Borse; we remain negative on Coinbase

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. NagaCorp Ltd
2. China Jinmao Holdings
3. Hopson Development
4. Greentown China
5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…

The Brunner Investment Trust (BUT) has two co-managers, Christian Schneider (CIO global growth) and Julian Bishop (global growth specialist), who are supported by deputy managers Simon Gergel (CIO UK equities, UK dividend and value specialist) and James Ashworth (global growth specialist). BUT may be considered as a ‘fund for all seasons’ given its steady outperformance in recent years in widely different market environments. The trust’s NAV performance also stands out positively compared with its 12 peers in the AIC Global sector, ranking first over the last three years, second over the last five and fourth over one year. BUT’s dual mandate of both income and capital growth and its straightforward portfolio of listed global equities may be an ideal way for investors to gain exposure to overseas companies.

The Merchants Trust (MRCH) manager, Simon Gergel at Allianz Global Investors, has been at the helm for the last 17 years during a variety of market environments. He has remained true to his investment process, seeking high-quality companies with solid fundamentals that are trading on reasonable valuations. The manager is very encouraged by the current valuation backdrop as, in aggregate, the UK market is trading at the low end of its 20-year range and within the market there is a wide dispersion of valuation multiples. A large proportion of UK stocks, including those of quality businesses, are trading on forward P/E multiples of less than 10x, providing Gergel with a large pond in which to fish. His approach has proved successful with mid- and long-term outperformance of MRCH’s broad UK market benchmark. With the trust’s dual mandate of income and capital growth, it offers an attractive 5.2% dividend yield and has grown its annual dividends for the last 41 consecutive years.

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Lendlease Global Commercial REIT’s CEO, Mr Kelvin Chow.

In the upcoming webinar, Kelvin will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. Angus will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

In the spirit of the festive season, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our lucky draw.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 9 January 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About Lendlease Global Commercial REIT

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT’s portfolio comprises two leasehold properties in Singapore, Jem (office and retail property) and 313@somerset (retail property), and three freehold Grade A office buildings, Sky Complex, in Milan. It has a total net lettable area of approximately 2.1 million square feet, with an appraised value of S$3.65 billion. Other investments include a stake in Parkway Parade and the development of a multifunctional event space on a site adjacent to 313@somerset.

• The stage is set for a potential resurgence of NFTs in 2024. As crypto wealth increases, spending on NFTs for “flexing”, identity, and entertainment will rise.
• A few NFT Character Brands could explode into mainstream consciousness and grow exponentially. Others will remain as niche communities.
• Ethereum will lose market share in NFTs, and Solana could catch up.

• Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF) reported a decent Q2FY24. AUM growth came in at 33% YoY. Profitability was also strong with ROA and ROE at 5%+ and 24%+, respectively.
• While, the overall outlook remains robust, BAF may see some NIM pressure due to rising cost of funds. However, majority of this is likely to be offset by operating leverage.
• BAF’s initiative to enter into new segments like microfinance and new car financing is progressing well. New car financing expansion is already ahead of plan with presence in 85 locations.

• 3 main APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200 and ASX200) are very OVERBOUGHT.
• A WEEKLY pullback (1 week down) is expected this coming week, or the next.
• The pullback should be short-lived and last just 1 week, then the rally should resume.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust has launched a capped tender offer for its two outstanding USD notes: the 7.25% ’24s, with USD 231.8 mn outstanding; and the 7.5% ’26s, with USD 181.7 mn outstanding. The purchase prices will be 76.5 for the ’24s, and 66.5 for the ’26s. Funding for the tender offer would be from, and capped by the size of, an INR 2.5 tn (SGD 215 mn) secured amortising term loan facility.

We recommend that holders of the ’24s and ’26s tender their notes.

• The stock of Poly Development and Holdings Group Co. Ltd. jumped 7.6% Tuesday after the leading developer unveiled an up to 2-billion-yuan ($279 million) share buyback aimed at arresting its sliding equity price.
• Shares of Poly Development closed at 10.34 yuan in Shanghai Tuesday, compared with 9.61 yuan at Monday’s closing. The stock has nearly halved from the 18.59-yuan peak in April 2022 after the persistent downturn in the property market.
• Poly Development, China’s largest developer by sales this year, said late Monday that it plans to buy back 1 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan of its own shares in the next three months.

• Cash-strapped developer Dalian Wanda Group Co. Ltd. can breathe a temporary sigh of relief having reached an agreement with investors to avoid an immediate repayment of more than 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) for an unfulfilled flotation of its property management unit.
• Wanda faced having to repay a group of investors their 38-billion-yuan investments plus interest under a 2021 agreement if the developer failed to list its light-asset unit, Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group Co. Ltd., by the end of this year.
• As Zhuhai Wanda’s listing plan failed despite four attempts, the repayment obligation became a ticking time bomb hanging over the company, which is struggling with capital drains amid plunging sales.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust (BRGE) has two co-managers: Stefan Gries (since June 2017) and newly appointed Alexandra Dangoor (since September 2023). They highlight that Europe is very attractively valued and as the managers seek the best businesses that are based in Europe, investors do not need to have a positive view on the European economy to consider BRGE. The trust has outperformed the Europe ex-UK market over the last one, five and 10 years, and its NAV total returns also rank first compared with those of the other three funds with a growth mandate in the AIC Europe sector over these periods.

Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) posted a strong 18.1% NAV TR in FY23 (to end-September 2023), which more than offset the NAV TR loss in FY22 of c 13%. Its performance benefited from, among other factors, comparable multiples expansion and a successful year in terms of realisations (in contrast to the muted exit activity across the broad global PE market). Moreover, DBAG’s management decided to enter the fast-growing private debt market through the acquisition of a majority stake in ELF Capital, with DBAG making a €100m investment commitment to ELF Capital’s funds. We believe this may have contributed to the recent update to DBAG’s distribution policy, which now assumes a minimum dividend of €1.00/share versus the previous 2023–25 management target of €1.60/share.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in June 2024.
• At present, I see 10 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• India Shelter Finance (0570670D IN) is looking to raise US$144m from its India IPO.
• India Shelter Finance (ISF) is a retail-focused HFC targeting the self-employed customer with a focus on first time home loan takers in the low and middle income group.
• In this note, we will look at past performance, and share our thoughts on valuation.

• India Shelter Finance (0570670D IN) (ISFC) IPO worth INR 12 bn opens for subscription this week. The issue comprises INR 8 bn fresh issue and INR 4 bn OFS. 
• ISFC has been generating high growth in AUM and disbursements in the last few years. The company has also improved its NPAs and stability.
• However, there are few cautions regarding employee productivity and on the opex side. Also, slippages have increased in H1F24.

• IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)  has built a banking franchise that holds the best promise among the mid-sized banks in India for long-run outperformance.
• A high-yielding and retail-oriented loan book, track record of pristine asset quality, superior funding profile boosting best-in-class retail deposit base, and incrementally improving unit economics.
• We value the stock as a long-term Buy, with 35% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• OUE Commercial REIT (OUECT SP) is one of Singapore’s best-quality commercial REITs, with a well-diversified and high-quality portfolio of assets across office, hospitality, and retail.
• A recent Smartkarma webinar with the management revealed a positive outlook for the company’s portfolio across the office, retail, and especially hospitality with some well-times asset enhancement initiatives bearing fruit.
• OUE Commercial REIT has strong sustainability credentials, both through its green-certified buildings, and an increasing portion of sustainable finance, with some well-timed recent financing. 

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust (BGCG) invests in China, focusing on innovative, rapidly growing companies best positioned to benefit from China’s still favourable long-term economic outlook and the structural trends that should drive equity markets for years to come. Key portfolio themes include e-commerce, food delivery, domestic brands, semiconductors, robotics and automation, and renewable energy. The trust’s relaunch in September 2020 coincided with a series of challenges for the Chinese economy, investor confidence and the growth companies BGCG favours, so performance has lagged the benchmark. However, the operational performance of most of BGCG’s holdings is strong, their prospects are very positive, and the trust’s managers believe that it is only a matter of time until confidence returns and share prices more accurately reflect these robust fundamentals.

We believe China South City’s (CSC) proposed bond extension is overall acceptable to bondholders. The company plans to continue paying coupons in cash, albeit at a reduced coupon rate. In addition, the absence of a haircut would preserve bondholders’ claims.

We note negatively that the amortisation payments would only begin in 2026. This reflects the company’s very tight liquidity, considering its failure to pay the coupon in November 2023 and the dismal H1/23-24 results. Moreover, CSC is not proposing to add new credit enhancement measures, even though the latest extension has demonstrated the failure of the existing keepwell deed and asset pledge to ensure offshore debt repayment.

CSC has ceased disclosure of quarterly contracted sales since 2022, and we believe it has now fully shifted business focus to commercial properties. However, the company’s commercial properties were affected by a depressed macro market and lower demand for leasing, and we do not foresee a related turnaround in the near future. Liquidity was extremely weak, with Cash/ST Debt of only 9% as of end-September.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China South City
• NagaCorp Ltd

In H124, Record posted steady management fee growth of 3% y-o-y to £19.6m as the company benefited from a higher assets under management equivalent (AUME) base. Total revenues, however, were down 3% as performance fees in H123 outweighed those earned in H124. Profit before tax was down 17% y-o-y to £6.3m as Record incurred costs related to its expansion and modernisation initiatives. In line with its progressive dividend policy, Record increased its dividend by 5% y-o-y to 2.15p per share. After four years as CEO, Leslie Hill announced her retirement and will be succeeded by Dr Jan Witte (CEO of the subsidiary Record Currency Management) at the end of FY24 in March. He has also been appointed to the board as executive director with effect from 1 January 2024. Leslie will maintain her share ownership in Record and will assist senior management in Record’s transition phase.

• SES AI Corp. will be hosting its third annual Battery World event on December 12, 2023, at 9:00 am ET.
• SES develops and produces high-performance, Li- Metal rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) and other applications.
• During Battery World, the company is expected to announce the world’s inaugural B-sample Joint Development Agreement with a prominent automotive OEM.