Financials

• SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
• It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying…
• But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess New World Development’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Environmental score, while the Social and Governance scores are “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

Target Healthcare REIT has sold four of its care homes for £44.5m to the incumbent tenant, modestly ahead of the carried value. The homes have performed well since being acquired as part of the significant portfolio transaction in late 2021, but their sale enhances key portfolio average metrics such as age, floor space and unexpired lease term, has been completed at a lower yield than the portfolio average and enables the company to reduce exposure to more expensive debt.

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies (OCTP), Britvic (BVIC), Ultimovacs (ULTI), DFR Gold (DFR), The Merchants Trust (MRCH), PB Holding (PBH) and Biodexa Pharmaceuticals (BDRX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.

• As we step into July, anticipation surrounds the distribution of 141,686 bitcoins from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange to its creditors, most of whom are former clients.
• Despite the looming release of these bitcoins, which have been locked away for over a decade, the crypto market saw an uptick over the weekend.
• This rise occurred even after the German government transferred an additional $94 million worth of bitcoins to exchanges this morning.

On 27 June, Moody’s upgraded Alpha Bank’s long-term senior-unsecured debt rating by two notches to Baa3 (Ba2 previously), its long- and short-term deposit ratings by one notch to Baa3/P-3 (Ba1/NP previously) and its long- and short-term counterparty credit risk (CCR) rating by one notch to Baa2/P-2 (Baa3/P-3 previously). The move takes Moody’s key ratings on Alpha to investment grade for the first time in 14 years. This is a further positive development for Alpha as it continues to execute its strategy and demonstrate recurring profitability and capital generation. S&P, Fitch and Capital Intelligence currently assign BB- (sub-investment grade) long-term debt ratings to Alpha Bank.

• We review Citibank’s upcoming division of CitiBanamex and the forthcoming legacy Banamex IPO; given the market’s recent wobbles, we shave down the Banamex IPO valuation
• Sector trends to January show continued loan growth; although funding costs have not risen to April, credit costs are worsening, with some evidence of rising NPL ratios
• BanBajio generates an ROE of 27%, whilst well capitalized and on very modest multiples; we are now neutral on Banorte, from being cautious, due to its less demanding valuation

• While the street is getting excited about Bandhan Bank (assuming a change in management, end of a bad asset cycle, and lower valuations), we are not.
• We believe the next set of problems for the bank are yet to be unleashed, and a change in management will only intensify the challenges ahead.
• We believe the worst is yet to come for the bank. 

• Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”)  continues to report strong growth with Q4FY24 revenue at INR 596cr, a growth of 35% YoY. Q4FY24 PAT grew 57% YoY to reach INR 181cr. 
• Overall, FY24 revenue and PAT ended strong at INR 2063cr (YoY growth of 31%) and INR 597cr (YoY growth of 62%), respectively.
• FY24 growth was led by the capital markets (revenue grew 64% YoY) segment, aided by favorable cycle and market-share gains. Wealth and asset management segments are also scaling up well.

• Implied Volatilities (IVs) continued to rise as the underlying index tried to break above critical resistance – marking a break-down of usual spot-vol correlations.
• Vol surface smile & skew characteristics held steady at the 25-Delta point of curve, while dynamics at the 10-Delta zone extended further.
• Nifty50 Back-end Term Structure is in Backwardation as Monthly options enjoy markups based on July-end Indian Budget release.   

• Metalpha is a small-cap Chinese supply chain company that has transitioned into an OTC underwriter focused on crypto derivatives through a reverse-merger.
• Despite being one of the smallest market cap crypto companies, it is not perceived as a “crypto” play by investors leading to low trading volume and lack of visibility.
• As the company gains recognition and the team continues to deliver results, it is expected to see a significant increase in valuation, potentially offering 4-17x returns to shareholders in the next 24-36 months.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) have seen a significant correction on the back of concerns over credit quality, as provisions increased in 1Q2024, the bank addressed its problem micro-loans
• The bank is addressing these loans with some further provisions likely over the coming quarter but special mention loans should plateau in July signifying a turn. 
• Bank Rakyat Indonesia will slow micro-lending and grow corporate loans this year to address the cost of credit. Profits will likely be flat and dividend payout up. Valuations are attractive.

• Kolte Patil reported a muted Q4FY24 with sales value flattish at INR 743cr vs INR 746cr QoQ. However, overall FY24 ended strong with sales value growing at 25%+ YoY.
• New project acquisition ended FY24 at INR 6000cr+, which was below the guidance of INR 8000cr. However, Kolte Patil remains upbeat and has guided to do INR 8000cr in FY25.
• Even with lower than expected project acquisitions, Kolte Patil is well positioned with INR 25000cr worth of projects portfolio. It has guided for 25% CAGR in sales value through FY25-27.

• White Mountains Insurance Group, LTD was founded by Byrne in Bermuda
• The company has shown consistent growth in book value and stock price, with an average annual return of around 10% since 2001
• WTM operates as a smaller version of Berkshire Hathaway, with a market cap of $4.55 billion and a focus on prudent acquisitions and management

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• The Nikkei 225 Index rallied last week, and closed the week up.
• Although slightly overbought, our models are not pointing to a SHORT opportunity here.
• If the index pulls back this coming week, it may be a good idea to BUY, in order to take advantage of a possible reprise of the rally.

• The new excitement of the MS&AD story is the company’s commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends.
• ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends.
• Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.

• The recent news on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) was director Elizabeth Kan narrowly getting re-elected. Of interest, ISS recommended shareholders vote AGAINST. Glass Lewis was FOR re-election.
• The key takeaway here is that the majority of the minorities want change. The next development may occur in the lead up to the management agreement renewal in November. 
• In addition, Argyle Street Management, CMSCI’s key shareholder activist, is also requesting the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV. 

• ASX is seeing the number of listed companies in decline, although there are some positives with average daily turnover and secondary listings.
• Higher costs are keeping positives from reaching the bottom line fully, with costs to revenue are now 40% in 1H24 where this was 29% in recent interim periods.
• Capex plans for ASX and sticky inflationary figures on staff costs, the current year and following year net profit can see reasonable pressure.

• The company’s targets are underwhelming given the opportunity but low expectations built in
• A revamped strategy to increase profitability and shareholder returns is “radical” for this old-school company
• Execution is key for certain parts of the plan, but the market can do the rest

• Atour recorded steep product sales growth during 618. We raised our C2Q24 revenue by 7.5% and full year by 5.1%, driven by (1) stronger pillow sales during the 618 promotions; 
• Thanks to retail, Atour’s RevPAR after including retail sales maintained positive growth of 1.7% YoY, although pure hotel RevPAR dropped 2.9% YoY due to a decline in hotel price.
• We raise TP by US$1 to US$36/ADS and keep the rating as BUY, factoring in the strong growth momentum of Atour’s retail business.

• Just over a month ago, on May 23, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved U.S.-based Ethereum spot ETFs.
• However, these ETFs have not yet launched because the SEC still needs to approve the necessary S-1 filings, in addition to the already approved 19b-4 filings from May 23.
• This final approval is largely a formality, suggesting that a launch is imminent.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• New World Development
• Softbank Group

• In an unusual move, property developer Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)  announced the In-Specie distribution of its core ops, either in unlisted scrip, or HK$5.90/share in cash. 
• As this is considered a “very substantial disposal“, a Scheme-like vote from independent shareholders is required at an EGM. And controlling shareholders – with 81.13% – are required to abstain. 
• The EGM will be held on the 2 September, with the cash payment expected on (or before) the 18 October. The question is: what is the Rump worth?

• On 25 June, Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).
• The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).
• Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group’s estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.

• Despite the recent rally in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), the stock should be deleted from the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) in September.
• Canara Bank (CBK IN) should be added to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) and passive trackers will need to buy 1x ADV and over 2x delivery volume.
• Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) is safe for now but could be deleted from a large global index in the next few months on further underperformance.

• Exceeding our upgraded FY24 PAT estimate of INR 350cr+, Nesco reported PAT of INR 363cr, led by Q4Y24 PAT of INR 105cr, a rise of 24% YoY and 12%+ QoQ.
• Q4FY24 revenues grew 6%+ QoQ and 20%+ YoY. Growth was driven by BEC where revenues grew 6% QoQ and 31%+ YoY. IT Park revenue grew 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.
• For FY25, we estimate that Nesco could post a PAT of INR 420cr+. Per our FY25 exit P/E of 26x+, Nesco could be valued at around INR 11000cr.

We view New World Development (NWD) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company is one of the leading Hong Kong-based property developers and the flagship real estate arm of the Chow Tai Fook (CTF) group. NWD has an established property-development track record in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as a sizeable and growing portfolio of investment properties (under the premium K11 brand) in both regions. In addition, it has a large land bank (particularly in Hong Kong), which would support its development pipeline.

Overall, we believe NWD’s credit profile is underpinned by expectation of support from the CTF group, as well as its high quality and mostly unencumbered investment property portfolio. That said, the company has high leverage and weak financial metrics.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on NWD is “Negative”. This is mainly on account of the challenging industry environment, which has pressured the company’s property development contracted sales and margins. Going forward, NWD is likely to gradually grow its rental income from investment properties, supported by contributions from newly completed assets. Positively, management has communicated a deleveraging plan, albeit this may hinge on the company’s ability to carry out further non-core asset disposals.  

Controversies are “Immaterial”. In 2021, NWD had to demolish and rebuild two out of seven blocks at The Pavilia Farm Phase 3 project, after the building contractor found construction defects during concrete strength tests. That said, the company adequately compensated affected homebuyers and commissioned an independent third party to carry out tests on the project’s Phase 1 and 2 sections. In 2008, NWD became the subject of a minor controversy after it appointed a former top civil servant (Leung Chin-man, who was Hong Kong’s Permanent Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands from 2002 to 2005) as deputy MD and ED of NWCL. The appointment was subsequently rescinded after a public outcry. Overall, the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. 

We initiate coverage on NWD with a “Hold” recommendation on the NWDEVL notes. We believe investors with a higher risk appetite can consider investing in the three NWDEVL perpetual securities that contain coupon step-ups (in the event of non-call at their respective first call dates), considering the attractive YTC. 

• eXp World Holdings is a cloud-based real estate brokerage business with a stock price of $9.91 and a market cap of $1,562 million
• The company offers agents an 80% commission retention through a revenue share agreement, a significant improvement over the industry standard
• eXp World Holdings operates without physical offices, providing a cost-effective and innovative alternative to traditional real estate brokers.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Freshworks, a prominent software development company, showcased a robust financial performance in the first quarter of 2021, achieving a notable 20% year-over-year revenue growth, bringing its total revenue to $165.1 million.
• This impressive growth was complemented by a strong free cash flow of $38.7 million, reflecting a free cash flow margin of 23%.
• The company’s strategic initiatives highlight its dedication to innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), which has significantly enhanced efficiency and customer satisfaction across its product offerings.

• DFIN offers software solutions with potential for revenue growth
• Strong balance sheet and focus on recurring revenue provide stability and growth potential
• Target price range of $80 – $100 per share indicates significant upside potential for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Molten Ventures saw a stabilisation and recovery in portfolio valuations in H224, as well as a pick-up in realisation processes, with two agreed exits (Endomag and Perkbox) at valuations modestly above last carrying values. Consequently, management now expects around £100m of realisation proceeds in FY25 (to end-March 2025). Its updated capital allocation policy assumes a focus on attractively priced primary and secondary investments (with an emphasis on the latter), as well as a minimum of 10% of realisation proceeds earmarked for share buybacks.

CoinShares International (CS) är en pionjär och en väletablerad aktör i den framväxande och snabbväxande branschen för digitala tillgångar. Bolaget införde nyligen en utdelningspolicy att betala ut mellan 20 % och 40 % av det sammanlagda totalresultatet justerat för valutaomräkningsdifferenser. Detta underbyggs av stabila intäkter från förvaltningsavgifter och aktiviteter inom kapitalmarknadsinfrastruktur, inklusive belöningar från insättning av digitala tillgångar, framför allt Ether efter de senaste stora uppgraderingarna av Ethereums blockkedjenätverk.

• BTC fights to hold multi-month range lows amidst aggressive liquidations and market volatility.
• Altcoin market faces significant losses, with some sectors down 30%+ from yearly highs.
• Upcoming ETH spot ETF launch offers potential bullish catalyst despite current market weakness.

• SEBI introduced the SPECIAL CALL AUCTION framework for Listed Holding Companies to unlock the value.
• The first special call auction is set to take place in October.
• Some companies are trading at a discount of more than 50% or even 80%, post this framework, shares will be traded at fair value.

• There is a high likelihood of information leaking through the lead securities firm when the tender offer prospectus is provided to branches about three days before the disclosure.
• With the FSS’s stricter stance, tender offer candidates may act swiftly before new regulations, prompting attention to potential surges in tender offers.
• Our approach is clear: identify short-term tender offer candidates, monitor trading volumes for spikes, and use the three-day pre-disclosure surge to time our positions effectively.

• Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets.
• The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have managed to perform well.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Avanse Financial Services (1288481D IN) is looking to raise up to US$419m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners will be JPM, Nomura, Kotak, Avendus, Nuvama Wealth and SBI Capital.
• Avanse Financial Services (AFS) is an education focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) operating in India. 
• It offers full stack education products ranging from education loans for students to growth capital for education institutions through education infrastructure loans. 

• Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.
• The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. 
• I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution. 

• BTC faces headwinds as global liquidity contracts, impacting recent price action.
• Spot BTC ETFs initially fueled highs, but inflows and volumes are now declining.
• Crypto markets need a major catalyst to counteract waning liquidity support.

• LNC is poised for growth in the U.S. life insurance market due to improving fundamentals, positive earnings per share revisions, and an attractive valuation
• Despite past challenges with capital and credibility, management has successfully addressed issues and reshaped the business, leading to a clear roadmap for future growth
• With potential catalysts on the horizon, LNC has significant upside potential and the possibility of a shift in investor sentiment in the near future.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• It was only a matter of time. Today, Mt. Gox confirmed that it will begin distributing its Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash holdings to creditors, primarily former clients, starting in July.
• The announcement did not specify the exact date or the timeline for the repayments.
• The crypto market reacted poorly to this news, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 4% since the announcement this morning.

• The steady selloff in Swire Properties (1972 HK) could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.
• Swire Properties (1972 HK) trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.
• Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) owns 82% of Swire Properties (1972 HK) and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.

• The new pre-disclosure rule starting July 24th will reshape business practices. Local institutions are now preparing by launching dedicated block deal funds, targeting 40 to 80 deals annually.
• No rule bars short-sellers from block deals post-pre-disclosure. Local institutions are planning to exploit this, anticipating sellers favoring club deals under new July rules, potentially stabilizing prices for hedge strategies.
• Access to club deals will be crucial post-July in Korea’s block deal market. Effective short-selling instruments are also vital with the ban extended until March next year.

• Implied Volatilities (IVs) stabilized over the week after falling dramatically since the 04-June-2024 India General Election results.
• No tactical changes required while IVs are stable & “High & Down” Vol-state is maintained.
• Vol Curve continues to be in Contango. Lack of significant event risk should keep term structure locked in its current orientation. 

• Everest Group has sustainable and improving 15-20% ROEs
• Stock trades at a valuation of 1.2x book and 6x P/E
• Poised for future success with accelerating casualty pricing, stable property-cat rates, and potential for hitting 90 combined ratio target

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• During the period under consideration, i.e. April 3rd, 2024 to May 3rd, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
• In the beginning, it faced a slight increase, while from April 9th until April 18th the pair faced a sharp decrease.
• After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level but still below the price level of the start of April. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Greentown China

• At the AGM yesterday, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)‘s director Elizabeth Kan was re-appointed, but by a wafer-thin margin: 29.97% of shares out FOR, and 29.44% AGAINST.
• Stripping out Victor Chu’s stake (~2%?) and China Merchant’s (27.6%), or collectively ~29.6% of shares out, it’s fair to say the remainder of the shareholder register wants her out. 
• CMCDI is currently trading at a 55% discount to the latest NAV (as at 31st May 2024) of HK$30.42/share.  Argyle continues to add to its position. 

• Edelweiss reported a strong Q4FY24 led by robust performance across businesses. The asset management business continues to be the lead performer. Insurance businesses are also growing at an industry-leading pace.
• Most notably, the credit business seems to be gaining momentum now, led by co-lending. MSME co-lending disbursements tripled while housing finance (HFC) co-lending disbursements doubled in FY24. 
• To unlock value and reduce debt at the corporate level, Edelweiss is planning a minority stake sale in the Alternative Asset Management business.

• Burford Capital is a leading provider of litigation finance with a market capitalization of $2.5bn and strong revenue and profit figures
• The company, led by innovative founders, has received positive assessments from customers, ex-employees, law firms, and peers
• Burford has a proven track record of competitive advantage in revenue, market share, innovation, customer service, and underwriting skill, with potential for improved returns on capital and vast growth opportunities.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Today’s edition of Crypto Moves builds on this week’s Crypto Crisp, where we advocated a bullish outlook on the crypto market.
• I have examined all of our charts to find every reason to maintain a long position in the current crypto market. Let us dive in.
• From this week onwards, we anticipate a significant increase in liquidity over the next few months. This liquidity forecast model has been highly accurate in recent months.

• On May 9, 2024, Migalo Holdings Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its full- year FY2024/3 earnings results.
• Sales rose 14.5% YoY to ¥42,672 mn, and operating profit fell 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn, largely in line with the Company’s full-year forecast calling for sales to rise 12.7% YoY to ¥42,000 mn and operating profit to drop 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn.
• The Company will pay a year-end dividend of ¥45 per share, including a commemorative dividend of ¥5 per share to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the founding of its predecessor, Property Agent, Inc.

• After 3 weeks up in a row the KOSPI 200 is ripe for a pullback.
• The reversal is probably going to begin this coming week.
• If the index goes higher, look at 391 resistance targets to initiate SHORT trades or to cover your LONGs.

On 12 June IP Group announced that Garrison Technology, one of its key deeptech holdings, is being acquired by US-based cybersecurity company Everfox (formerly Forcepoint Federal), which has been Garrison’s partner for several years. IP Group highlighted that it would receive a cash consideration upon deal completion for its 23.6% stake in Garrison and that the valuation of Garrison implied by the deal will not result in any meaningful uplift to last carrying value. Based on this, we understand that IP Group will sell its stake at a price, which is broadly in line with the £31.6m fair value as at end-December 2023 (or c 2.7% of its end-2023 NAV). This is an indication of IP Group’s prudent approach to valuing the business (it had been valued in line with its £15.5m funding round in 2023). Further exits in line with or above last carrying value should assist a narrowing of the current wide discount to NAV of c 61%.

• JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.
• Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, though the changes only start in October 2026. 
• The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. 

• Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN) raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.
• Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
• Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• While Elizabeth Kan barely survived the AGM vote, ASM has effectively mobilized minority shareholders.
• Lazard (owns 15% of CMCDI) probably voted alongside ASM (owns 9%). Other than China Merchants Group and Victor Chu, almost no “outside shareholders” voted in favor of Kan, .
• The next battleground is a vote in November when CMCDI needs to renew its investment management agreement. Intense behind-the-scene negotiations are expected, given the bargaining power ASM now demonstrated.

• The private equity consortium (CVC, Nordic Capital, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) has upped the possible offer to 1,140p/share in cash, including 30p final dividend, with a rollover equity alternative.
• The offer implied valuation of 17.2x NTM forward P/E and dividend yield of 4.25% are historically low for HL. An offer in line with peer’s multiples would imply 1,326p.
• The rollover equity alternative appears to be intended to give founders a means of sharing in HL’s future success. Gross spread is 0.5%.

• Buy long positions in OPI 4.5 2/1/25 bonds, currently trading at 83 with a 28% yield
• Company has 11 months to refinance bonds with Moelis assisting in debt restructuring
• With 5.3B in total assets and 1.74B already pledged as collateral, company has enough to secure upcoming 650M maturity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Road King Infrastructure