Financials

• AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) is looking to raise up to AUD200m (US$133m) to fund the acquisition of Pacific Indemnity.
• The company has a good track record and the deal will be accretive to EPS.
• In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

• Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) shows us that worsening policies in force is far more important to earnings than staggering growth of new policies.
• Returns and profit growth are weak and this should matter more than a puritanical focus on new policies, embedded value.
• Non-Operational line items, likely hedging costs and reserve adjustments, are cancelling out most all positives in operations.

• Magyar Bancorp (MGYR) completed its second-step conversion in July 2021, making it eligible for acquisition by another bank in July 2024
• MGYR has seven branch locations in New Brunswick, New Jersey, with a small market share in Middlesex and Somerset counties
• The company’s strategic location and potential for growth may make it an attractive target for acquisition in the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Meme Coins Reflect Disillusionment: Emerging from distrust in traditional finance, meme coins leverage cultural relevance for adoption.
• Attention Drives Crypto Value: Memes and narratives shape crypto value, emphasizing the importance of attention.
• AI Disrupts Attention Economy: AI threatens traditional distribution channels, making crypto a potential solution.

• ETH ETF Approval Odds Soar: Bloomberg increases ETH spot ETF approval odds from 25% to 75%, shaking up the crypto market.
• BTC ETF Inflows Rebound: BTC ETF inflows revive, marking the first consecutive positive flow days in over a month, signaling bullish potential.
• Bullish BTC Momentum: BTC holds above $65K, showing bullish market structure with potential for retesting $71K-$72K amidst improving ETF flows.

• The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$1.2bn.
• We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – one change is high probability while one could change depending on price moves over the next week.
• The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation.

• It comes as no surprise that we have been bearish on the crypto market in recent weeks.
• However, the market seems indifferent to our stance.
• The softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report last Wednesday boosted risk-on assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, while the prospect of improved liquidity conditions in the economy is also set to benefit the crypto market.

Target Healthcare REIT’s Q324 update shows a fifth successive quarter of positive NAV total return, with indexed rent reviews driving increased earnings and property values. Tenant profitability continues to strengthen, reflected in a high level of rent cover and rent collection. Dividends are well covered by adjusted earnings and we expect further DPS growth.

Alpha Bank’s Q124 profit after tax reached a record €211m, up by 90% y-o-y, 75% q-o-q and 8% above consensus. The beat was driven by better trading gains and impairment losses, with net interest income (NII) and operating expenses largely in line. Adjusted return on tangible equity (RoTE) was 13.5%, ahead of the full-year target of 13%. Alpha also announced a change in proposed FY23 profit distribution. The previously indicated €0.05 dividend (€122m distribution) is now proposed to be split 50:50 into a €0.025 dividend and €61m buy-back, subject to regulatory approval. Any buy-back would be value enhancing as the shares trade at only 60% of tangible book value per share (TNAV).

• Thesis for pitching Uniti unsecured bonds based on hidden catalyst for potential deal with Windstream
• Late Friday night headline confirms talks of potential merger between Uniti and Windstream
• Windstream’s motivation to resolve lease issue before federal broadband subsidy program ramps up drives likelihood of deal, increasing confidence in trade recommendation

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• ACIC is a high-quality insurer with an attractive forward P/E of around 5.5x
• Specializes in providing windstorm insurance policies to garden-style condos in Florida
• frostybluebird’s research on ACIC has been praised for forming the foundation of subsequent analysis, positioning the company as a promising investment opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding.
• MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.
• In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

• We believe results of the 2024 shareholder vote indicate rising investor sentiment that change is needed within the company’s top management & compensation structure, which we also believe has important implications for the search for a new CEO to replace the company’s outgoing CEO who announced his intention to retire on 12/31/24.
• In our view, TRC now has an opportunity to strengthen its management team and improve its interaction with public shareholders, just as we believe it did with the 2023 appointment of new CFO Brett Brown.

• Lee Bok-hyun hopes for short selling to resume by late June. Given his influence on the Value-up policy, it’s likely to happen.
• Lee expects key tax incentives for the value-up program to be included in the July tax reform bill, showing a market-friendly stance.
• Yesterday’s New York event had a very positive atmosphere with more attendees than expected, showing genuine investor interest, likely ensuring sustained interest in Korea’s Value-up program.

• The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND’s buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued their rise with liquid Hs outperforming their As by 3.8%. 
• There were some BIG moves the past two weeks and Average AH Premia are now the lowest in nearly four years vs near 5yr wides less than 12 weeks ago. 

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Modec Inc (6269 JP)‘s  US$535 million secondary offering.
• Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), L’Occitane (973 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK), I’Rom Group (2372 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP). 

• Curtail Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure as Vol-regime has switched to “High & Up” state.  
• Short-Dated IVs traded markedly lower, driven by recovering equities & the 20-May market holiday
• Nifty50 vol curve is exhibiting unusual kinked shape. Monthly IVs are commanding a large vol markup relative to rest of the curve. 

• The top line of HKEX (388 HK) is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.
• Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange.
• Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Hopson Development
• Vedanta Resources

• Tally 51 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
• Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), I’Rom Group (2372 JP) and S Line (9078 JP). ESR Group (1821 HK) also in the crosshairs. 
• Key updates took place on: Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK), Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) , Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) and L’Occitane (973 HK).

• Indian SMEs are new hot investment avenues selling stories to investors which might end to a case of pump and dump.
• SEBI in last few months have identified such cases in SMEs and microcaps.
• We delved into key guidelines on Indian Forensics to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks

• We turn positive on KakaoBank, for its increasingly secure competitive positioning in Korea, its attractive digital efficiency ratio, its low customer acquisition cost and for its high activity rate
• We switch our buy rating from PAN to Inter as the latter has improved operationally, it is sound on capital and attractive on valuations
• Nubank is executing well, but we remain cautious on Nubank shares as we continue to see potential capital constraints as a key risk, along with its stretched valuations

• Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks. 
• The company’s cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs.
• Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA.

• LICHF faced some teething issues with technology during past 1Y due to which growth and reported asset quality had been subdued. However, with strong Q4FY24, LICHF is back on track.
• LICHF reported strong growth in disbursements. Q4FY24 disbursements were INR 18200cr+, a growth of 20%+ QoQ. NIM came in higher than expected at 3.15%, despite spike in bond yields.
• Asset quality improved significantly with Stage 3 assets declining to 3.31% vs 4.26% QoQ and Stage 2 assets declining to 4.20% vs 4.54% QoQ.

• The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying a bit last week and closed the week up. A rebound from the previous downtrend is underway.
• A temporary bottom may have been established in May, it is not clear if the index is about to go lower or higher, but our pattern model readings suggests higher.
• If the index continues to rally, the first major resistance area will be around 40k.

• Payoneer Global, Inc. is a leader in profitability in the fintech industry
• The company’s experienced management team has a clear vision for future growth
• Payoneer offers a unique and essential service for SMBs in the global marketplace, positioning it well for continued success and value creation for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We believe results of the 2024 shareholder vote indicates rising investor sentiment that change is needed within the company’s top management & compensation structure, which we also believe has important implications for the search for a new CEO to replace the company’s outgoing CEO who announced his intention to retire on 12/31/24.
• In our view, TRC now has an opportunity now to strengthen its management team and improve its interaction with public shareholders, just as we believe it did with the 2023 appointment of new CFO Brett Brown.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
• We expect one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes during the regular rebalance event.
• For the ASX 200 index, there could be two intra-review changes in the month of June 2024 and one of those names could be a surprise.

• Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• This SOE-backed property management play recently announced its highest-ever earnings.
• Shares have gained ~32% in the past fortnight, touching a three-year high. IF an Offer were to unfold, expect an Offer Price ~10% above the last close. 

• On 16 May, it was reported that the Korean financial regulators have approved DGB Daegu Bank to become the 7th commercial bank in Korea. 
• DGB Daegu Bank is the core entity of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) which currently has a market cap of 1.4 trillion won (US$1.0 billion).
• This change will allow the company to expand in the more lucrative metropolitan Seoul and other regions in Korea. We have a positive view of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS).

• Talks circulate that E-Mart may sell its 5% stake in Samsung Life Insurance, valued around ₩1T, due to fundraising needs linked to SSG.com investors’ put options.
• Initially, Starbucks Korea was a potential sale, but U.S. HQ approval makes it unfeasible. Shinsegae L&B and Food weren’t enough to raise funds, leading E-Mart to focus on Samsung Life.
• E-Mart’s block deal timing is uncertain due to potential legal disputes over unmet put option conditions, yet recent local market discussions suggest E-Mart may avoid legal battles.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Medco Energi

• Author discusses high-return opportunity in mortgage REIT preferreds, focusing on AGNC Investment Corp’s Series F preferred
• Systematic mispricing allows for 13-20% IRRs over 12-36 months with fairly safe investment
• Emphasis on safety and high yield of mREIT preferreds, highlighting potential for significant returns while minimizing borrower credit risk

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• President and CEO Andy Main focused on Bakkt’s three key priorities for 2024 as the company saw strong 1Q24 crypto trading activity with notional traded volume up 324% sequentially.
• The company is cutting costs, and it expects to have between $42 million and $57 million in cash at the end of 2024.
• Objectives for 2024 include broadening client networks, expanding products, and expense management.

• The key message from ICGT’s FY’24 results (to January) is the continued strength of the operating companies, which keep delivering mid-teen EBITDA growth.
• Despite challenging markets, margins have widened, which should help allay some concerns over the impact of the higher-rate environment.
• Target returns are “broadly unchanged”.

• Key 1Q24 takeaways include: 1) stepped up earnings power following recent deleveraging that cuts interest expense and unlocks higher-yielding AUM 2) sustainable demand for Valour’s ETPs despite near-term crypto volatility and 3) ongoing product development focused on innovative and differentiated offerings that facilitate access and exposure to digital assets via secure, liquid, and yield-bearing vehicles.
• We are raising our 2024 and 2025 EPS estimates from $0.08/$0.40 to $0.12/$0.51 reflecting higher trading/staking fees, as DEFTF’s revenue model continues to evolve, combined with lower interest expense.
• Stepping back, we believe DEFTF remains well positioned for accelerating growth driven by the firm’s diversified digital assets platform, rising demand for crypto ETPs more broadly, ongoing product development, durable regulatory competitive advantages, and an increasingly potent earnings profile.

• NLOP has continued to reduce the number of properties it owns through further dispositions during the first quarter and so far through the second quarter. 
• The pace of selling is likely to continue until NLOP has reduced its mezzanine and senior secured mortgage debt to zero. 
• AFFO was $20.0 million, in the first quarter, which was more than we were expecting.

• Nexus Select Trust (NST IN) raised around US$391m in its India IPO in May 2023.
• NST is a REIT with a portfolio of 17 Grade A urban consumption centers. Its portfolio covers retail malls, office assets, hospitality assets and a renewable power plant. 
• In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

• The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
• Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.

• Thousands of people from around the world gather in Omaha for Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting at Warren Buffet’s house.
• Questions arise about who will take over Berkshire Hathaway after Buffet’s reign and what will happen to the company.
• Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting features a variety of booths and shops representing the conglomerate’s diverse business holdings, attracting shareholders and fans alike.

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• Author disputes Muddy Waters’ claims and endorses purchasing Fairfax Financial shares
• Fairfax’s true book value is believed to be higher than its current trading price, making it a promising investment
• Fairfax is a property and casualty insurer with a strong underwriting history, adding to its appeal as an investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Moody’s Corporation (Moody’s) began 2024 on a strong note with a sizeable 21% revenue growth ensured by a robust issuance environment and sustained demand for risk assessment solutions.
• By taking advantage of investments made in analytical talent and technology, Moody’s leveraged robust issuance periods, resulting in a 35% year-over-year increase in revenue.
• Despite uncertainties surrounding the year ahead due to factors like upcoming U.S. elections, tense Middle East situations, and potential fluctuations in U.S. inflation and central bank rates, Moody’s remains optimistic about potential growth.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Indofood CBP Sukses
• Pakuwon Jati
• Rakuten

• Block Inc., previously known as Square, provided updates on its business performance for the first quarter of 2024 in a recent earnings conference call.
• The company reported an impressive gross profit of $2.09 billion, an increase of 22% compared with the same period last year.
• This was mainly due to robust growth in the company’s Square and Cash App businesses, and discipline in managing expenses.

• Coinbase Global Inc., under the leadership of Co-Founder and CEO Brian Armstrong, reported a strong first quarter for 2024 in the latest earnings call.
• Significant progress has been made on the 2024 priorities shared on a previous call, and these include revenue expansion through the improvement of core trading, growth in stablecoins, dominance in the derivatives space both domestically and internationally, and growth through key market investments.
• Coinbase has developed a low-cost Layer 2 solution named Base and is striving to drive regulatory clarity through court disputes, policy collaborations globally, and procrypto candidate support.

• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported records in Q1 2024 with net revenue of $2.3 billion; a 5% increase compared to the prior year.
• There were also some highlights, such as $1.4 billion of record adjusted operating income representing an 8% year-over-year growth.
• ICE also saw record first quarter net revenues totaling a record $1.2 billion which is up 11% year-over-year.

• Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)‘s Offer terms from the onset. 
• OCBC did not declare its S$25.60 cash Offer final. And someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, presumably towards negotiating a bump in terms.
• But what happens if GE’s free float falls <10% at the close of the Offer and GE is suspended? And OCBC has no intention of restoring the float?

• Aadhar Housing Finance(AHF) raised around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
• AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
• We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• BAF reported a decent Q4FY24 led by strong AUM growth and robust customer acquisition. Adjusted for the impact of the regulatory ban, Q4FY24 results were in line with the expectation.  
• The biggest negative surprise in Q4FY24 was the 21bp NIM compression. NIM compressed led by AUM composition shifting incrementally to secured assets. 
• BAF is optimistic on growth across segments, except Rural B2C where risk metrics are somewhat elevated; however this should normalize, given Rural B2B is doing fine.

• Belstar Microfinance Ltd (3624918Z IN) is looking to raise US$156m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, HDFC Bank, SBI Capital Markets.
• Belstar Microfinance (Belstar) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India with a focus on furnishing micro-enterprise loans.
• As per the CRISIL report, the firm was the ninth largest NBFC – Micro Finance Institution (NBFC-MFI) in terms of assets under management (AUM) as of Dec 2023.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lippo Karawaci
• Softbank Group

JDC Group (JDC) reported strong Q124 results. Revenue growth accelerated to 21.6% from 10% in FY23, driven by its Advisortech division (+22.6%). In terms of profitability, the EBITDA margin increased to 7.6% from 7.3% in Q123. JDC reiterated its FY24 revenue guidance of €205–220m, 24% y-o-y growth at the midpoint, partly driven by the acquisition of Top Ten Financial Network, which management expects to contribute more than €18m in revenues this year. EBITDA is also expected to increase to a guided range of €14.5–16.0m (FY23: €11.7m). We make no changes to our estimates. Our DCF provides a valuation of €34.0/share.

• Pioneer Credit Limited (ASX:PNC) is one of the leading acquirers and managers of impaired credit in Australia and has gained its status by maintaining positive customer engagement, an unblemished compliance record with ASIC, and strong relationships with Australia’s largest bank and non-bank lenders.
• PNC purchases debt from numerous Australian vendor partners (18 different vendors in the past 12 months) with long-term partnership purchasing arrangements in place with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA).
• Pioneer’s success in purchasing large debt portfolios at attractive IRRs since October highlights the strong position the company occupies in the marketplace, now enhanced by the recent purchases on attractive IRRs.

• Back in February this year, various media sources reported that the key shareholders of warehouse/fund management play ESR Group (1821 HK), were exploring options, including a privatisation.
• Long-Term holders Warburg Pincus and Canadian pension fund OMERS hold 14% and 10.7% respectively. ESR co-founders/directors Jeffrey Shen, Stuart Gibson, Charles de Portes, and Hwee Chiang collectively hold another ~23%.
• Shares in ESR were suspended this morning “pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers“.

• ESR Group (1821 HK) is on a trading halt. Press reports suggest a consortium featuring Starwood Capital Group and SSW Partners is considering a buyout.
• Starwood and SSW are approaching other shareholders to join the consortium. The other members are likely Warburg Pincus, OMERS, Jinchu Shen, and Hwee Chiang Lim.
• The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed. 

• Pre-Open on February 1 2024, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.
• Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.
• Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings – much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!

• Go Digit General Insurance is looking to raise around US$315m in its India IPO.
• Go Digit General Insurance is a digital full stack insurance company, offering motor insurance, health insurance, travel insurance, property insurance, marine insurance, liability insurance and other insurance products.
• We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about the refiling updates and valuations.

• The last week of SPACs was packed with activity, including deals, bankruptcies, and IPOs.
• Two new deals are announced including a SPAC taking a digital commerce platform connecting buyers and sellers public, and a blank-cheque firm merging with a company producing large format projection screens for the entertainment industry.
• Also, a used car retailer could declare bankruptcy three years after debuting through a SPAC, and an advanced nuclear fission company sees its shares plummet after completing a SPAC merger. 

• Chongho Bridge (2314866D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Chongho Bridge (CB) is an integrated services provider to China’s rural population. It offers rural inclusive credit services, agricultural production services, rural consumer goods and rural clean energy services.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
• GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
• The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

• We reviewed NBPE’s business model in our initiation, Co-investments generating superior performance.
• We noted the high-secular-growth and downside-resilient investee companies, the value added by GPs, the good co-investing cashflow and return profile and the value added by the NB. The 2023 results confirmed all these trends.
• The key numbers were i) NAV p/sh $28.07 (£22.02), ii) private portfolio +5.3% in 2023 on a constant currency basis, iii) EV/LTM EBITDA 14.9x, and iv) debt/EBITDA 5.3x.

• We have entered the week before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must decide on VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF application, with a decision due next Thursday, May 23.
• It is expected that the outcome for this application will set a precedent for all the other Ethereum ETF applications.
• This issue of Crypto Crisp focuses extensively on the Ethereum spot ETF.

• OCBC (OCBC SP) has announced a voluntary unconditional general offer for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) at S$25.60 per share, a 36.90% premium to the undisturbed price.
• OCBC aims to privatise Great Eastern by delisting resolutions or exercising compulsory acquisition rights. The offer has not been declared final.
• While the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid which would comfortably allow OCBC to privatise through either option. A bump is highly likely.   

• Election-Related volatility being reflected in options. India VIX has surged 70% over the past two weeks. Quarterly IVs have seen the largest rise as they capture election result date.
• BankNifty IVs are finally responding as the market plays catch up to the bank regulator’s new-found aggressiveness
• Elevated Vol-of-vol observed the past few weeks. Vol-regime Switching Model continues to point to “High & Down” state. Odds of switching to a “High & Up” state are increasing.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings
• Sunny Optical Technology Group
• Yuexiu Property