Event-Driven

I tally 45 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Two new deals were discussed this week: Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)‘s non-binding proposal for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).; and EQT’s Offer for PropertyGuru (PGRU US).
Key updates took place on APM Human Services (APM AU), TCM (570 HK), GaPack (468 HK), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), and Jeisys Medical (287410 KS).

ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces

A media outlet that Reports on Deals reported that the consortium will offer HK$14.50 per share, a 22.1% and 61.8% premium to the last close (HK$11.88) and undisturbed price (HK$8.96).
While not a knockout offer, the consortium’s impending binding proposal suggests confidence that the offer price and structure would gain the support of the substantial shareholders.
The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding. Its forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 30% discount to the median peers’ multiple.

Henlius (2696 HK): Share Alternative Facilitates the Vote

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) announced the Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) share alternative offer, subject to proration due to a cap of 8% of outstanding shares.
The share alternative offer was necessary to facilitate the vote as the HK$24.60 offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price.
The co-founders, HenLink and LVC, will likely tender some or all their shares for scrip. At the last close and for the December-end payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/17.9%.

Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?

JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and completion expected by late 2024, pending approvals.
The shares go ex-dividend on August 30, with payment on September 12. Adjusted for the dividend, shares trade at a -0.4% gross spread. My fair value estimated is $15.92/share.
Consensus sets a target price of $16/share. JT may consider raising its offer to this level (6.67%), especially if they see Vector as a strong long-term investment.

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance: Canara Bank IN; Bandhan Bank OUT

In line with our forecast, Canara Bank (CBK IN) will replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the close on 27 September.
Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) will be deleted from a global index at the close on 31 August, so real float will increase a lot over the next month.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in Canara Bank (CBK IN) and sell 1 day of ADV in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN).

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.25)- China TCM 24H1 Profit Warning, Financing Activities, Giant Biogene

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)‘s profit warning suggests weaker-than-expected 2024H1 results, but the interim report is needed for clarity. This is unlikely to negatively affect the company’s privatization plans.
In 24H1, healthcare investment and financing activities have slowed, and it will take time for investors’ confidence in the sector to recover.
Giant Biogene (2367 HK)‘s 24H1 results exceeded expectations, leading management to raise its 2024 guidance. However, the profit margin declined, and we remain cautious about long-term growth prospects.

Weekly Deals Digest (25 Aug) – Seven & I, Iriso, Fancl, Alps Logistics, China TCM, Henlius, GA Pack

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: WeRide (WRD US) delayed its Nasdaw IPO, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) launched a US$530 million IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Iriso Electronics (6908 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), GA Pack.

Trading Situation for Hyundai Motor’s 5% Stake in Korea Zinc, Set to Be Unlocked in October

The market is watching closely for when Hyundai Motor might sell its 5% stake in Korea Zinc, with the lockup ending on October 7th.
Hyundai might mediate to end the lawsuit and lift the injunction, potentially agreeing to sell the stake to a third party or on the market.
The uncertainty around Hyundai’s Korea Zinc stake sale makes trading challenging, but its actions in Q4 could significantly affect Korea Zinc’s stock price and create trading opportunities.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Trent, BEL to Replace Divi’s Lab, LTIMindtree

Trent (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) will replace LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) and Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the close on 27 September.
Passive trackers will need to trade at least 5 days of ADV and over 11 days of delivery volume in the stocks.
All the index changes are also changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and there will be opposing flows (though much smaller in size) for the stocks.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, Webjet, Hanwha Group, Swire Pac/Props, EOFlow

Alimentation Couche-Tard has returned to the well with a NBIO for 7&I (3382 JP). This’ll be anathema to politicians who view 7&i as a local champion AND a lifeline entity.
Global travel outfit Webjet Ltd (WEB AU) has announced the separation of its two key divisions. The sum of the part is greater than the whole? I’ll take that bet.
The Kim family turn their focus to Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS) in the latest Partial Offer within the Hanwha Group complex.

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Aug 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: More Partial Offers In The Hanwha Group Complex and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: More Partial Offers In The Hanwha Group Complex
Examining the Severity of Proration Risk in the Hanwha Galleria Tender Offer
EQD | HSI May Pull Back, Levels to BUY For Rally Continuation In September

StubWorld: More Partial Offers In The Hanwha Group Complex

After the Kim family-backed Hanwha Energy completed Hanwha Corporation‘s Partial Offer last month, Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS)‘s VP Kim Dong-seon has now launched a Partial Offer for 17.5% in Galleria.
Preceding my comments on Hanwha are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Examining the Severity of Proration Risk in the Hanwha Galleria Tender Offer

The Hanwha Galleria tender offer has no cancellation risk but carries proration risk, keeping the spread at around 7%.
For Hanwha Galleria, most floating shares are held by retail investors, and the smaller float size compared to Hansol Logistics further reduces proration risk.
Even though the actual trading volume might be a concern, it’s still worth thinking about going for an aggressive strategy to take advantage of the spread, which is around 7%.

EQD | HSI May Pull Back, Levels to BUY For Rally Continuation In September

By Nico Rosti

We have correctly forecasted a August rally for the Hang Seng Index in previous insights, here and then here – the rally is on, but a pullback is coming.
The pullback may come in this week or the next, but it’s probably behind the corner, the index can continue higher after the pullback.
In this insight we want to expose what are the levels to buy LONG to benefit from a highly probable continuation of the rally in September.

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Aug 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security
NPS Will Vote Against the Merger Between SK Innovation and SK E&S
Insulet Launches a Patent Lawsuit Against Eoflow in Europe
A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun
NPS Effectively Decides to Exercise Appraisal Rights Against SK Innovation: Trading Considerations
Korea’s New Retail Pool Borrow Fee Calculation & Disclosure Rules: Impacts on Flow Trading
Both Hanwha Aerospace Spinoffs Remain in KOSPI 200: Trading Value Gap Between Trading Suspension
Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep
Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security

The largest potential inbound cross-border M&A in years – for a national champion no less – gets a lot of press coverage.
This morning, a Nikkei article noted Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) was likely to need “prior approval” from Japanese regulatory authorities for its takeover “the Nikkei has learned.”
It wasn’t difficult for the Nikkei to learn that. METI publishes a FEFTA List. 7&i has been on it for years as Type II Designated Business, requiring prior approval.

NPS Will Vote Against the Merger Between SK Innovation and SK E&S

NPS will vote against the merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S, mainly due to significant concerns about destroying shareholder value (especially for SK Innovation shareholders).
Sustinvest also recommended that institutional investors vote against this merger, citing that the merger ratio between SK Innovation and SK E&S is disadvantageous to SK Innovation’s general shareholders.
If NPS exercises its appraisal rights, this could put a knife in the wheel of the M&A merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S.

Insulet Launches a Patent Lawsuit Against Eoflow in Europe

Eoflow announced Insulet had filed an injunction on 3 July against Eoflow and Menarini requesting a ban on the manufacture, sale, distribution, and use of EOPatch in 17 European countries.
Given that Eoflow should have reported this event earlier, this is likely to result in further loss of confidence on Eoflow by many investors in the near term.
If Eoflow is able to complete its rights offering (albeit lower amount than proposed), this could boost its chances to become a formidable competitor to Insulet on a global basis.

A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun

It was announced that a tender offer to purchase a 17.54% stake in Hanwha Galleria has been launched by Kim Dong-Sun (Vice President at Hanwha Galleria).
Tender offer price is 1,600 won per share, which is 22.8% higher than the closing price on 22 August. Tender offer amount is 54.4 billion won.
On 23 August, Hanwha Galleria’s share price is likely to rise close to the tender offer price as many investors believe the tender offer is likely to be successful.

NPS Effectively Decides to Exercise Appraisal Rights Against SK Innovation: Trading Considerations

NPS’s opposition suggests a likely vote against the merger, but if they plan to exercise appraisal rights, they might abstain to preserve that option.
NPS typically exercises appraisal rights when the spread exceeds 5%, as seen in past mergers like Celltrion and Samsung. They didn’t act when the spread was below 5%.
The key question is whether SK Innovation can boost its stock price to avoid NPS exercising rights. Otherwise, the merger may pass, but the stock could drop significantly.

Korea’s New Retail Pool Borrow Fee Calculation & Disclosure Rules: Impacts on Flow Trading

The new rule mandates that retail pool fees be tied to the fees paid by institutional borrowers, and this information must be publicly disclosed.
This rule ensures faster, more accurate market release of stock-specific borrow fees, which are now tied to actual fees received, replacing the arbitrarily set rates by brokerages.
With short-selling resuming next April, this rule could drive new flow trading strategies and significantly influence target screening in the short-selling market.

Both Hanwha Aerospace Spinoffs Remain in KOSPI 200: Trading Value Gap Between Trading Suspension

KRX announced that both Hanwha Aerospace and the new Hanwha Industrial Solutions will be added to the KOSPI 200.
Since 2020, two K200 spinoffs had both companies remain: DL Holdings and DL E&C in January 2021, and SK Telecom and SK Square in November 2021, with notable value increases.
This trade isn’t risk-free and requires a sophisticated hedge setup, but the trading opportunities from this flow situation are worth close attention.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable.

Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private acquisition of Grifols SA (GRF SM).
Considering a €10.18/share possible offer price (institutionals are seeking €12), the A shares are trading at a 7.3% gross spread and are pricing a 62.5% possibility of deal completion.
The preferreds trading at 17.5% discount vs ordinary shares should be favored in case of takeover, with Long B shares/short A shares my preferred way to get involved.

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Aug 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement
China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands
Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger
Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]
Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple
LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index
Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes
TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie
Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes.
The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM’s profits or prospects.
If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote.

Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger

Back on the 22 May, global travel outfit Webjet (WEB AU) announced it was exploring the separation of its two divisions – Webjet and Webjet B2C – via a demerger.
If the demerger is implemented, shareholders will receive one Webjet B2C share for every Webjet share; plus retain their existing shares in Webjet (to be renamed WEB Travel Group).
A demerger booklet has been dispatched, with a 17th September vote on the in-specie distribution. If approved, WEB Travel (ex-entitlement) and Webjet B2C commence trading on the 23rd September.

Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]

After the market close on 21 August, Eoflow (294090 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 9.1 million new shares, representing share dilution of 23%.
Based on the expected rights offering issue price of 9,040 won, the company is expected to raise 82.2 billion won in this capital raise.
Eoflow has monthly cash burn rate of about 3.3 billion won. If the rights offering is successful, it would have adequate capital resources for about a couple of years.

Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple

The Logisteed/KKR entity received its approvals between the last week of July and this past week, and told Alps Logistics (9055 JP) it wanted to launch its tender 22 August.
It will do so. Approvals were reasonably quick (as expected) and the Special Committee and Board decided nothing material had changed. No reason to change their opinion.
This is still a HUGE price. And everyone will be out by mid-October if they want. This is an easy deal. And a GIGANTIC win for minorities.

LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index

LG Electronics aims for 7% growth, a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple, and a ₩1,000 DPS with a 25% payout ratio, likely disclosing details by late October or early November.
LG Electronics’ value-up disclosure highlights major non-financial companies’ participation before the value-up index launch, driven by regulatory pressure and concerns about index inclusion.
Samsung and Hyundai are likely to disclose value-up plans by early September, prompting an upward revision of flow size predictions for the value-up index launch.

Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek

From early June until yesterday, local pension funds have purchased nearly 4% of DB HiTek’s SO. This places DB HiTek in a dominant first position in their net buying list.
The timing of local pension funds beginning to buy DB HiTek coincidentally aligns with May 22, when DB Inc was requested by the KFTC to transition into a holding company.
Focus on potential price impact from DB Inc.’s buying and value-up index inflows. Considering a relative overweight in DB HiTek may be strategic despite some risk.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.

TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) flagged a 60-70% drop in its 1H24E net profit versus 1H23, due to reduced sales/profit of TCM concentrate, bad debt provisions, and remedial taxes.
MAC triggers? No – Sinopharm won’t exercise such right, even if one was ostensibly triggered. I’d be surprised if Sinopharm wasn’t fully aware of TCM’s underlying operations.
Get involved on any dips today. Trading wide at a 11.7%/38.7% gross/annualised spread, assuming Dec-end payment.

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2024. There are also several live M&A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.

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Aug 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications
Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I’s Pride on the Line
Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility
Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion
APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September
APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October
Galderma (GALD): Successful Injection in Swiss & Global Indices

Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications

This final guideline formalizes earlier drafts by the FSS. Though not strictly mandatory, its detailed requirements mean it functions as a de facto rule that must be followed closely.
The new, stringent requirements are likely to eliminate common stock borrowing practices in Korea, making timely transactions difficult.
New trading patterns and market flows may emerge when short selling resumes in April, with increased importance of borrow balance data and potential rise in counter-flow trading.

Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I’s Pride on the Line

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

It was reported yesterday that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) has put forward a bold proposal to acquire Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
The offer price remains undisclosed, but the market may be anticipating a significant premium based on the share price movement following the news.
However, we believe the offer price could fall short of market expectations, and it is likely that Seven & i will reject the proposal.

Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility

Increased exchange rate volatility affects the ADR premium, but past patterns show that exchange rate and ADR premium directions may not always align, requiring consideration of specific contextual factors.
If the won appreciates below the 1,300s range, overseas institutions may shift to asymmetric selling of underlying shares for foreign exchange profit, as shown by rising ADR premiums.
We should watch for peak conditions to capture significant ADR premiums. Trading options include borrowing underlying shares for ADR conversion, even under the current short-selling ban.

Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami’s entities, City Index Eleventh and Aya Nomura, reported a 5.06% position in Iriso Electronics (6908 JP). The purchases were from 25 July to 13 August.
Murakami’s average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,378.90 per share, a 7.8% discount to the last close price.
Murakami’s disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Iriso is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September

The APM Human Services (APM AU) IE considers Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)’s A$1.45 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$1.40 to A$1.74 valuation range.
The offer is conditional on FIRB, US HSR and shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as MDP is the second-largest shareholder.
While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At last close and for the 10 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.4%/10.1%.

APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer

Back on the 31st May, employment and disability services play APM Human Services (APM AU) and US PE-outfit Madison Dearborn Partners, entered a Scheme at A$1.45/share, in cash.
That’s a 74.7% premium to undisturbed. A scrip option was afforded, and Executive Chair, Megan Wynne and CEO, Michael Anghie will take up that option, if the Scheme is implemented.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th September. Expected implementation on the 10 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.
Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October

With the start of the review period around the corner, there could be two changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the October rebalance.
Wonik Ips (240810 KS) and Techwing Inc (089030 KS) are potential adds while ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS) and Dongjin Semichem (005290 KS) are potential deletes.
Passives will need to trade more than 2x ADV on two potential changes and more than 1x ADV on another potential change.

Galderma (GALD): Successful Injection in Swiss & Global Indices

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Galderma (GALD SW) is one of the largest Global and Swiss Index additions at the August and September 2024 reviews following its recent IPO valued at ~$17bn.
The company is forecasted to get added in the second Global Index at the September 2024 review. Estimated demand is ~$162m and ~5.0 ADV.
The IPO lock-up expiry is forecasted to generate an additional demand of ~$42m and ~1.3 ADV at the December 2024 review.

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Aug 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere
FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)
HK CEO & Director Dealings (19th Aug 2024): Merlin Selling Swire Pac/Props; Chans Buying Hang Lung
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘24 Report
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in Sep
Archimed Group Seeks Delisting of Jeisys Medical Through Stock Exchange
KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance Preview: Replacements for Jeisys Medical

MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)

Today, part-way through the day, the Nikkei ran an article saying that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had made a confidential non-binding proposal to buy Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
7&i shares obviously went up (limit up in a hurry, staying there, large size traded limit up at close).
Now things get complicated. 7&i has said they received a non-binding proposal for all the shares. There will be a Special Committee of all Independent Directors. All stakeholders will matter.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) shares rose 22.7% as it confirmed media reports that it had received a confidential, non-binding preliminary proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
The interest is unsurprising due to the weak share price performance. Since ValueAct’s open letter on 25 January 2022, the shares are up 5.2% vs. the Nikkei 225 up 38.0%.
Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging as it requires support from the founder’s family and the Japanese government. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low.

FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

With the review cutoff done, we expect just one change for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in September.
China Tower (788 HK) is a high probability inclusion while China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a high probability deletion.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume for both stocks in the last few months, but the pace has slowed noticeably in the recent past.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (19th Aug 2024): Merlin Selling Swire Pac/Props; Chans Buying Hang Lung

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Swire Pacific (19/87 HK)/Swire Properties (1972 HK) and Hang Lung (10 HK)/Hang Lung Properties (101 HK).

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘24 Report

Since mid-July, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 8 widened, 2 remained at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA (GRF SM) (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in Sep

With the review cutoff done, there should be two changes for the CSOP FTSE China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) / iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China (2823 HK) ETFs in September.
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow (600025 CH) and China National Nuclear Power (601985 CH) should replace China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH) and Yihai Kerry Arawana (300999 CH).
China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) will be deleted from a global index later this month and there could be some opportunities to trade the A/H arb.

Archimed Group Seeks Delisting of Jeisys Medical Through Stock Exchange

Jeisys Medical announced that it has decided to exchange shares with Syracus Subco, its largest shareholder. The stock exchange ratio between Syracus Subco and Jeisys Medical is 1 to 1.3575606.
The exchange date is 23 October. Through this stock exchange, Archimed Group (owner of Syracus Subco) seeks to delist Jeisys Medical (287410 KS).
Jeisys Medical also announced that it plans to cancel 1,075,838 common shares, representing 1.4% of its outstanding shares.

KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance Preview: Replacements for Jeisys Medical

Archimed, via its Korean entity Syracuse Subco, now holds 91.35% of Jeisys Medical (287410 KS) following the second tender offer. Jeisys shares will be delisted in the next couple months.
Jeisys Medical (287410 KS) is a KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) constituent and there will be a replacement for the stock in the index.
Recent ad hoc replacements to the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) have traded well and that warrants positioning for this event.

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Aug 19

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises
HSTECH Index Rebalance: ASMPT (522 HK) Replaces Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)
HSCEI Sep24 Rebal – Two ADDs, Two DELETEs, Two Surprises, Middling Flows
Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal – No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow – Total 0️⃣🍔
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)
Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation
Sep24 HSTECH Index Rebal – ASMPT (522 HK) ADDed as Expected, After Post-Earnings Fall
Merger Arb Mondays (19 Aug) – China TCM, Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, JTower, Fuji Soft PropertyGuru
Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: US$417mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: ASMPT (522 HK) Replaces Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)

As expected, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) will replace Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 6 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.5bn. Passives need to buy over 7x ADV in ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK).
Positioning appears light in both stocks. Expect ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) to move up and Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) to move lower near-term.

HSCEI Sep24 Rebal – Two ADDs, Two DELETEs, Two Surprises, Middling Flows

The HSCEI is famous but has less AUM tracking it passively than you’d think. Nevertheless it is well-known and well-watched.
J&T Global Express (1519 HK) and New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) were ADDs. JD Logistics (2618 HK) and SenseTime Group (20 HK) are DELETEs.
PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK) was NOT included. This was a surprise. We may see some disappointment this week from pre-positioning getting sold.

Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal – No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow – Total 0️⃣🍔

The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.
This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes.
Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)

In a surprise (maybe should not have been!), there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1% and estimated round-trip trade is HK$3.73bn (US$478m). There are no stocks with over +/-0.5x ADV to trade but flows could add to/offset other index flows.
We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 constituents appears to be a long drawn out torturous one. At this glacial pace, could be an eternity away.

Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) held over 5% of Apple (AAPL US). Nearly half of that was sold in the June quarter to take the holding to 2.63%.
Berkshire’s selling should result in an increase in Apple (AAPL US)‘s free float in the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and other related indices.
There will also be large buying in Apple (AAPL US) from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF if the proposals in the market consultation are implemented.

Sep24 HSTECH Index Rebal – ASMPT (522 HK) ADDed as Expected, After Post-Earnings Fall

HSTECH sees one ADD, one DELETE and several capping and re-capping actions. One of the re-caps is already an un-recap (i.e. a new capping), to be updated.
The ADD is ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK), as expected, with significant ADV impact to buy. The DELETE is Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK), also a big sell.
Across the three major indices, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) is the big dollar sell and HSTECH changes are the biggies in terms of ADV impact.

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Aug) – China TCM, Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, JTower, Fuji Soft PropertyGuru

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), JTower (4485 JP), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Capitol Health (CAJ AU).
Lowest spreads: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP), C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Alps Logistics (9055 JP).

Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Free float is forecasted to increase from ~94% to 100% in S&P 500 and other US and Global indices after Berkshire halved its stake in Apple (AAPL US) .
Forecasted demand from S&P 500 and S&P TMI is 164.2m shares, $37.1bn and 3.0 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024.
Materialization of the free float increase is uncertain due to debatable strategic shareholder classification. ETF ratios and current free float improve the confidence of the forecast.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: US$417mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations

The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
In this insight, we have presented our updated rankings for Potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in December 2024.

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Aug 18

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, BusinessOn Comm, Orora, Ramsay Health Care, Namoi Cotton, APM, CPMC
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 Aug 2024); Big Net Buying On “Tiny” Overall Volume, ETFs Big
PropertyGuru (PGRU US): EQT’s US$6.70 Offer Is A Done Deal
HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 16 Aug 2024): Banks Bought, Industry & Materials Sold
Thoughts on Capturing the 7% Doosan Swap Spread
Weekly Deals Digest (18 Aug) – JTower, Piolax, Fancl, China TCM, CPMC, PropertyGuru, Orora, WeRide
Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: SSE 50 Expected ADDs Vs DELs Trade Looks Interesting
Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche
Peptron: Rights Offering of 120 Billion Won

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, BusinessOn Comm, Orora, Ramsay Health Care, Namoi Cotton, APM, CPMC

I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Two new deals were discussed this week: JTower (4485 JP) and BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS)‘s Tender Offers. Orora (ORA AU) approached by Lone Star. Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) Offer also rumoured.
Key updates took place on China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU), APM Human Services (APM AU), and CPMC Holdings (906 HK).

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 Aug 2024); Big Net Buying On “Tiny” Overall Volume, ETFs Big

SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$16.6bn this week (now 28wks in a row of net buying), on VERY LOW two-way volumes.
Gross volumes were very low. Net volumes were decent. There were three ETFs in the top 5 SOUTHBOUND net buys this past week suggesting position unwinding.
Top net buys other than the ETFs were China Mobile and Tencent (now 14 out of 15 days seeing net SOUTHBOUND buying)

PropertyGuru (PGRU US): EQT’s US$6.70 Offer Is A Done Deal

PropertyGuru (PGRU US) entered into a definitive merger agreement with EQT (EQT SS) at US$6.70 per share, a 51.9% premium to the undisturbed price of US$4.41 (21 May).
The shareholder vote is done (two-thirds voting threshold) due to TPG Inc (TPG US)/KKR & Co (KKR US)’s support and drag-along rights relating to REA Group Ltd (REA AU)’s shares.
This is a clean deal as there is no dissenting condition or requirement for country antitrust approvals. At the last close and for end-of-year payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/6.4%.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises

J&T Global Express (1519 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) will replace JD Logistics (2618 HK) and SenseTime (20 HK) in the HSCEI at the close on 6 September.
The inclusion of J&T Global Express (1519 HK) is a big surprise and the stock could move higher over the next couple of weeks.
The non-inclusion of PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK) is another surprise since we had the stock highly ranked in the universe.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 16 Aug 2024): Banks Bought, Industry & Materials Sold

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.0bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND volumes were very, very low overall.
HK large caps again outperformed Mainland large caps generally. Tech (HSTECH vs Star50 and ChiNext) saw even better HK outperformance.

Thoughts on Capturing the 7% Doosan Swap Spread

Consider a two-phase strategy: go long on Bobcat spot and short futures until November 1. If Robotics’ price drops significantly, close the setup.
If things go well, close the Bobcat futures short before November 1 and hold an unhedged Bobcat long until the listing date on November 25.
Hold an unhedged long position during this trading suspension period because cancellation risk will be gone and Robotics may get stable inflows from MSCI inclusion.

Weekly Deals Digest (18 Aug) – JTower, Piolax, Fancl, China TCM, CPMC, PropertyGuru, Orora, WeRide

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: WeRide (WRD US) aims to raise up to US$119 million through a Nasdaq IPO and US$321 million through a concurrent private placement.
Event-Driven developments:China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), JTower (4485 JP), Piolax Inc (5988 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), PropertyGuru (PGRU US).

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: SSE 50 Expected ADDs Vs DELs Trade Looks Interesting

SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
Some of our index change expectations have changed since our last insight.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now? Unwind.
CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August.
The right trade is to buy JTower (4485 JP) below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you’re an arbitrageur, you know what to do.

Peptron: Rights Offering of 120 Billion Won

On 16 August, Peptron (087010 KS) announced that it decided to increase capital through a rights offering worth about 120 billion won, involving 2.64 million shares (12.8% of outstanding shares).
The expected rights offering price is 45,450 won, which is 22% lower than current price.
We are negative on Peptron’s rights offering mainly due to much lower expected rights offering price, concerns about additional rights offering next 2-3 years, and continued lack of profitability.

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Aug 17

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sun Corp (6736) – The Future Is Bright and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Sun Corp (6736) – The Future Is Bright
Value-Up Flow Trading Opportunities Arising from NPS’s 10% Ownership Ceiling on Banks
Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Pharm Is Cancelled
EQD | The ASX200 Can Rally Higher (If This Is A Rally…)
Ola Electric (OLAELEC): EV Maker Receives Turbo Boost from Lock-Up Expiries for Index Inclusion

Sun Corp (6736) – The Future Is Bright

The reason why Sun Corp (6736 JP) has traditionally traded at a large discount to its potential outcome is the possibility of inefficient or delayed value realisation.
Materially ALL of the value of the company is in its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). True Wind Capital, the SPAC sponsor of CLBT, just bought 19% of SunCorp.
They bought that for the CLBT, or the value realisation thereof. And now with the slightly surprising Tender Offer result, the chances of a better outcome are now higher.

Value-Up Flow Trading Opportunities Arising from NPS’s 10% Ownership Ceiling on Banks

NPS is concerned that aggressive value-up measures by bank holding companies and ongoing cancellations might quickly use up their room up to the 10% ownership limit.
With their stake already at mid-8%, they may not buy as much as the index suggests, creating new trading opportunities in the four major bank holding companies.
Woori Financial has more room for buying, so as the year ends, NPS’s skewed-buying could give it a better price impact than other bank holding companies.

Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Pharm Is Cancelled

Celltrion Inc announced that its proposed merger with Celltrion Pharm has been cancelled due to disapproval of this deal among an overwhelming percentage of Celltrion Inc shareholders.
This cancellation of a merger between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Pharm is likely to continue to have a positive impact on Celltrion Inc and negative impact on Celltrion Pharm.
The major reason is because Celltrion Pharm trades at high valuation multiples while Celltrion Inc trades at lower valuation multiples. Celltrion Pharm’s P/B valuation is more than 3x Celltrion Inc’s.

EQD | The ASX200 Can Rally Higher (If This Is A Rally…)

By Nico Rosti

The S&P/ASX 200 has been quietly rallying since its (modest) -11% correction in 2023, mostly unaffected by global turmoils, even the latest sell-off in US, Asia and Europe was “non-damaging”.
The index has already recovered a large part of the losses suffered for only 1 week, very brief if we consider that the SPX INDEX had corrected for 4 weeks.
Now that the S&P/ASX 200 has rallied strongly we want to analyze its pattern model, to identify the area where it could pull back again (or slow down).

Ola Electric (OLAELEC): EV Maker Receives Turbo Boost from Lock-Up Expiries for Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) is likely to get added at the March 2025 review following the lock-up expiry in November 2024 which increases the fcap way above the fcap threshold.
Current fcap for February 2025 review is ~$1.2bn following the lock-up expiry in November 2024. Inclusion is based on whether fcap passes the prevailing fcap threshold.
The lock-up expiry in February 2025, increases the probability of addition in May 2025 review if it fails inclusion in February.

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Aug 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls
Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series
TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …
Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size
Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Has This Stitched Up
Hankook Tire & Technology: M&A of Hanon System Falling Apart?
Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update reinforces the bull case. The gross spread has remained uncomfortably high since falling on no news on 26 June.
The monthly update will relieve the bulls, as the consortium has finally made the regulatory submissions. The update stresses that the filing delay is due to an unwieldy consortium.
Potential stumbling blocks remain, which should not be an issue. Nevertheless, the risk (17.7% downside to the undisturbed price)/reward (21.4% gross spread) remains attractive.

Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series

The September KOSPI Size Index rebalancing could bring back the typical price impacts seen over the past decade, unlike the March rebalancing.
The previous rebalancing had anomalies due to newly listed stocks in LARGE and a stronger downward trend in LARGE-to-MID transitions, disrupting the expected price impact.
For September’s rebalancing, fewer distortions are expected compared to March. The NPS Mid to Small Cap fund, a key influence, shows no significant changes in benchmark or AUM.

TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …

A 14.8% gain month-to-date, including this past Monday’s 6.5% pop – you just knew something positive was taking place behind closed doors. And leaking its way into the public.
So it was no real surprise to read in the latest monthly update announcement on the HKEx that various regulatory approvals are almost, but not quite, satisfied.
The wording in the announcement strikes a positive tone. Even remaining conservative on the timeline, this could be wrapped up before year-end.

Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size

Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) has got approval to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports are that the listing could be up to US$3bn.
That issue size is around half of the maximum that the company can issue. But it would still need cornerstone investors and a nice discount on the H-shares.
The stock will still get included in some indices even with the scaled down size, and inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect is a given.

Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Has This Stitched Up

Since Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) first announced a A$0.51/share Offer, by way of a Scheme, on the 28 November 2023, and Olam Agri countered, there have been significant developments.
Both suitors have now tabled off-market Offers (A$0.67/share from LDC, and A$0.70/share from Olam Agri). Both Offers are open for tendering. Both have extended their closing dates numerous times.
And both suitors have also faced ACCC scrutiny. As of today, only LDC, currently holding a 20.2% stake in Namoi, is in the clear.

Hankook Tire & Technology: M&A of Hanon System Falling Apart?

There are increasing signs that Hankook Tire & Technology’s M&A of Hanon Systems could be falling apart.
The deadline for signing the main M&A contract to purchase a 25% stake in Hanon Systems has been postponed indefinitely.
New contingent liabilities at Hanon Systems have been uncovered during the 10 week due diligence process of Hanon Systems by Hankook T&T.

Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV