Category

Event-Driven

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look
  • MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included
  • KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, CSI500, XIN9I, DTAC/TRUE, Newcrest, Adani, Korea Spinoffs
  • JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.
  • Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana
  • Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) 2022H2 dividend went ex- on 6 February 2023, setting the Offer to be lowered. The Offer by Volare was lowered. Docs out Friday night.
  • The S$0.465 Offer, adjusted for dividends (to be paid 27 March (cash or DRP units)), is now S$0.4504 per unit. The first close is 10 March 2023. 
  • Sabana has underperformed a basket of slightly higher beta peers by 1+% since the day before the announcement. Watch pro-ration risk.

MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included

By Douglas Kim

  • MSCI announced its MSCI Korea index rebalance on 10 February. Kakao Pay (377300 KS) was the only company to be included in the MSCI Korea index.
  • There were also nine Korean companies included in MSCI Small Cap index including Osstem Implant, DearU, and ISC Co. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Ecopro Co Ltd (086520 KS) are higher probability potential candidates for inclusion in MSCI Korea Index rebalance in May. 

KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective

By Sanghyun Park

  • Amorepacific Group is more likely to remain in LargeCap due to its share price surge earlier this year. Instead, Hyundai Autoever will likely face a large→mid migration.
  • Of Small→Mid migrants. Sebang and Kum Yang deserve attention, as they will rank high in the Mid due to the rapid market cap growth over the past six months.
  • YTD performance seems to have a higher correlation with individual sector performance than causality with this event. So, there is still a circumstantial probability that justifies the trade.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, CSI500, XIN9I, DTAC/TRUE, Newcrest, Adani, Korea Spinoffs

By Brian Freitas

  • MSCI announced the changes to the GIMI on Friday as part of the February QCIR. MSCI also announced a review of the free float of the Adani Group companies.
  • FTSE will announce the changes to the All-World and All-Cap indices after the close of trading on Friday, 17 February. The same day is the S&P/ASX review cutoff for March.
  • Yet another weekly outflow for the IShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV US) taking the YTD outflow to over US$2.5bn.

JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.

By Travis Lundy

  • Engineering & Construction firm Jgc Corp (1963 JP) on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.
  • The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter. 
  • Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana

By Arun George


Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

By David Blennerhassett


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki

By David Blennerhassett


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Standard Chartered: Has FAB Gone Cold Or Just Cooling Off? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Standard Chartered: Has FAB Gone Cold Or Just Cooling Off?
  • Dai Nippon Printing – Activism On Easy Street
  • Big Link REIT (823 HK) Rights Offering
  • Sabana REIT (SSREIT SP): Volare’s Partial Offer Is Open

Standard Chartered: Has FAB Gone Cold Or Just Cooling Off?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 5 January, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB DH) said it had considered a bid for Standard Chartered (STAN LN/2888 HK),  but was no longer evaluating an Offer.
  • Such a statement kickstarts a six-month cooling-off period whereby FAB is restricted from reloading. This means all deal work must cease.  Unless another bidder emerges or STAN’s board approves. 
  • In a curious development, STAN’s shares popped ~11% yesterday, on no apparent news.

Dai Nippon Printing – Activism On Easy Street

By Mio Kato

  • Dai Nippon Printing’s announcement that it would double its RoE target in its next MTP was a pleasant surprise. 
  • Together with saucy hints that future buybacks could be the biggest in its history this has propelled the stock to a post-2007 high. 
  • We think Elliott has found an easy win here and consider this likely to end as a standout success for activism in Japan.

Big Link REIT (823 HK) Rights Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • After being halted this morning before the start of trade, post-close, Link REIT (823 HK) announced a fully-underwritten Rights Offering
  • The Rights Offering intends to raise HK$18.8bn issuing 1 Right for every 5 Shares held, at a subscription price of HK$44.20, a 26% discount to TERP. 
  • This will take an already under-levered REIT and add more capital to it. And there is going to be selling pressure at some point.

Sabana REIT (SSREIT SP): Volare’s Partial Offer Is Open

By Arun George

  • Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)’s partial offer from Volare to acquire a maximum of 109.6 million units at S$0.4504 per unit (S$0.465 in cash – S$0.0146 2H2022 distribution) is open.
  • The offer is conditional on 10% minimum acceptances. Minorities appear willing sellers as both Volare and Quarz increased their unitholding over the last 12 months.  
  • Quarz is supportive but its intentions are unclear. Based on a proration of 16.70% and at the last close of S$0.420 per unit, the breakeven price is S$0.415 per unit.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR: Mostly In-Line; Couple of Surprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR: Mostly In-Line; Couple of Surprises
  • Adani Group – MSCI Will Treat Very Adani Funds as a Very Special Case
  • Toshiba – The Nikkei Finally Speaks
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part
  • Haw Par Corp Is Still Trading Cheap
  • CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable
  • Korea Spin-Offs: Details and KOSPI200 Index Impact
  • Renesas – Good Results, Great Cashflow, Another Buyback, But Drift.
  • Kingston Financial (1031 HK) Scheme: That Is a Pass
  • HYBE to Acquire a 39.8% Stake in SM Entertainment

MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR: Mostly In-Line; Couple of Surprises

By Brian Freitas

  • MSCI has announced the changes for the February QCIR. For Asia Pacific, there are 20 adds and 14 deletes for the MSCI Standard Index with the most changes in China.
  • There are no surprises on the adds or deletes. However, there are a couple of stocks that are surprises on not being added to or deleted from the index.
  • The largest impact will be on Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ) – though there will be pre-positioning on the stock.

Adani Group – MSCI Will Treat Very Adani Funds as a Very Special Case

By Travis Lundy

  • Shortly after the Hindenburg Report came out, MSCI said it was seeking feedback from clients. They got it, and last night announced they would conduct a special review. 
  • They concluded some holders heretofore in the float might not be float. They announce results tonight. That can only be bad news for Adani Group companies. 
  • We don’t know numbers yet, but passive inclusion was one reason why stocks skyrocketed. Few of the companies will be unaffected. Some could be heavily affected.

Toshiba – The Nikkei Finally Speaks

By Mio Kato

  • The Nikkei was out this morning with its belated take on JIP securing financing. 
  • The article was nevertheless rather negative in its tone causing Toshiba to drop as much as 3.6% before recovering most of those losses. 
  • We aren’t entirely sure it should have but Toshiba Tec does pique our interest.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)’s Board.
  • Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).
  • The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.

Haw Par Corp Is Still Trading Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last November I highlighted Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)‘s multi-year trough levels on an implied stub valuation, and on an HPAR/UOB (UOB SP) ratio.
  • That trade has panned out well as the ratio steadily increased. But it remains below the 200 MDA.
  • A recovery in Tiger Balm sales is expected in Haw Par’s full-year results later this month.  UOB’s financials, and UOL (UOL SP)‘s, are also due out this month.

CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable

By Clarence Chu

  • CATL (A) (300750 CH) is looking to raise up to US$6bn in its upcoming Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC, China Securities, Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
  • The relatively large listing comes after the firm has been undertaking a series of capital raisings, since it’s A-share debut back in Jun 2018, to fund its expansion. 
  • In this note, we discuss GDR timelines, and the firm’s recent financial performance/valuations.

Korea Spin-Offs: Details and KOSPI200 Index Impact

By Brian Freitas


Renesas – Good Results, Great Cashflow, Another Buyback, But Drift.

By Travis Lundy

  • Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) today reported full-year 2022 earnings with revenues 0.032% higher than the high end of guidance, which was better than consensus. OP was not as good.
  • They have guided Q1 only, with revenues up 0.2-4.6%, and non-GAAP GPM -3.9% to 54.5%, and OPM -6.6% to 32.5%. But they also announced a Tender Offer Buyback. 
  • The buyback is smaller than I’d like, but the company has added cash despite last year’s tender offer and repaying bank borrowings. Lots to like here. 

Kingston Financial (1031 HK) Scheme: That Is a Pass

By Arun George

  • Kingston Financial (1031 HK)’s scheme resolution was approved at today’s scheme meeting – 99.89% of independent share votes cast FOR (0.09% of all independent shareholders AGAINST).
  • The scheme comfortably passed the headcount test with 44 FOR and 13 AGAINST the scheme (56 FOR and 20 AGAINST on a look-through basis).  
  • The last trading is on 10 February. At the last close and for the 3 March payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 3.4% and 69.3%, respectively. 

HYBE to Acquire a 39.8% Stake in SM Entertainment

By Douglas Kim

  • On 10 February (prior to market open), Seoul Economic Daily reported that HYBE will conduct a tender offer of SM Entertainment shares taking over the controlling ownership of the company.
  • HYBE agreed to acquire a 14.8% stake from SM Entertainment’s founder Lee Soo-Man at 120,000 won per share, which represents a 21.8% premium to the closing price on 9 February.
  • HYBE is also conducting a tender offer to minority shareholders and it plans to acquire up to 25% additional shares at 120,000 won per share, representing 717 billion won.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: MSCI Acts Quickly: Unmitigated Bad News for Adani Group Companies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Acts Quickly: Unmitigated Bad News for Adani Group Companies
  • Toshiba (6502) – Whoop! There It Is!
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2023)
  • KOSPI 200 Ad-Hoc Change: Hyundai Greenfood Out & Samyang Foods Fresh Buy-In on April 10
  • AGC (5201 JP) – A Big Buyback
  • Ihara Science (5999 JP) Sees the Chairman Launch an MBO. I Might Expect Excitement.
  • Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Finally Secures Due Diligence
  • Ihara Science (5999 JP): JPY2,980 MBO Tender Offer
  • Nitro Software: Potentia Still In The Mix As DD Granted

MSCI Acts Quickly: Unmitigated Bad News for Adani Group Companies

By Brian Freitas

  • In an unprecedent step, MSCI will reassess the float and likely lower the FIF of the Adani Group companies at the February QCIR. There will be BIG passive selling.
  • The affected securities will be further reviewed as part of the scheduled Full Country Float Review during the May QCIR. There could be some index deletions and BIGGER passive selling.
  • Expect active selling before the passive selling and the rally in the Adani Group stocks over the last couple of days should come to a grinding halt today.

Toshiba (6502) – Whoop! There It Is!

By Travis Lundy

  • As mentioned yesterday here and more clearly by Mio Kato in Toshiba – Good News?, the Nikkei was strangely silent over the fact that loan details were agreed. 
  • The Nikkei comes out with a surprise article this morning saying they hear the Commitment Letter has been handed over. It also says the “Final Bid” is “about ¥2trln.”
  • Toshiba shares quickly reacted badly quickly. The article deserves parsing and I try to clarify the arguments.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • This insight is a follow-up to TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2023) 
  • Our top pick from the last insight CELSYS (3663 JP) (previously known as Artspark) has gained ~14% in roughly a month.

KOSPI 200 Ad-Hoc Change: Hyundai Greenfood Out & Samyang Foods Fresh Buy-In on April 10

By Sanghyun Park

  • From a trading perspective, we should pay attention to the KOSPI 200 corporate actions in Hyundai Department Group’s demerger events, as both companies are KOSPI 200 constituents.
  • Hyundai Green Food’s surviving company won’t beat the cutoff, resulting in a KOSPI 200 constituent change on April 10. Samyang Foods will be a new addition.
  • Even the size of KOSPI 200 ETFs that will likely go into mechanical trading on April 10 will cause a significant price impact from a day trading perspective.

AGC (5201 JP) – A Big Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • AGC Inc (5201 JP) today announced Q4 earnings where revenues were great, OP was slightly disappointing, and Net Profits were awful because of significant impairments.
  • The company, however, announced a large buyback – its first in 5 years and equivalent to all the buybacks in the previous five years. 
  • The buyback should have impact on what is an interesting name with broad institutional ownership and not overwhelming liquidity.

Ihara Science (5999 JP) Sees the Chairman Launch an MBO. I Might Expect Excitement.

By Travis Lundy

  • Ihara Science (5999 JP) announced an MBO by the chairman. 
  • It’s at an all-time high, but it is not especially attractive. The register is also really interesting.
  • This is a smallcap but i would not be surprised to see a bumpitrage effort. In fact, I’d be surprised if we didn’t.

Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Finally Secures Due Diligence

By Arun George

  • Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has finally granted Potentia due diligence access until 22 February. Subject to satisfactory due diligence, Potentia could increase its offer from A$2.00 to A$2.20-2.30 per share.
  • Alludo’s A$2.15 off-market takeover offer is its best and final offer. Alludo’s offer is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (currently at 12.53%) and closes on 3 March.
  • Potentia’s dogged pursuit despite the Board’s stonewalling suggests a desire to get a deal done. At the last close, the gross spread to Potentia’s potential offer is 2.3% to 7.0%.

Ihara Science (5999 JP): JPY2,980 MBO Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Ihara Science (5999 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer (Chairman and Toku Corporation) of JPY2,980 per share, a 31.3% premium to the undisturbed price (7 February).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.25% ownership ratio.
  • While the tender price represents an all-time share price, it is light in comparison to peer and historical multiples. This suggests deal risk. The offer runs from 9 Feb-24 Mar.

Nitro Software: Potentia Still In The Mix As DD Granted

By David Blennerhassett

  • Adobe rival Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has granted Potentia Capital due diligence through to the 22 February on the possibility it sweetens its Offer to A$2.20-A$2.30/share. 
  • Alludo’s hands are tied to its A$2.15/share Offer price, which it has declared ‘best and final’ and will not be increased – even if a superior proposal emerges.
  • But Potentia pitching an Offer A$0.01/share above Alludo’s Offer won’t be sufficient for Alludo and other shareholders to tender. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toshiba (6502) – Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured – Next Steps and Risks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured – Next Steps and Risks
  • DTAC/TRUE Merger: Index Flows & Potential SET50 Replacement
  • Carlyle 86% Premium ¥4460 TOB on Iwasaki Elec – Probably Light, and Interesting Shareholder Register
  • Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Very Early Look – US$4.3bn Prolonged Overhang or Lack Thereof
  • Toshiba – Good News?
  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO and the Board Trading Half-Truths
  • SM Entertainment: A Rights Offering & CB Issue to Kakao Corp
  • EQD | HSI Index: Buying the Dip Using Options

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured – Next Steps and Risks

By Travis Lundy

  • On 31 January, the expected “deadline” for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.
  • Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.
  • That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.

DTAC/TRUE Merger: Index Flows & Potential SET50 Replacement

By Brian Freitas


Carlyle 86% Premium ¥4460 TOB on Iwasaki Elec – Probably Light, and Interesting Shareholder Register

By Travis Lundy

  • Carlyle has agreed to do an MBO on Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP) where the existing CEO who is 65yrs old will take a 0.5% stake.
  • As a purveyor of specialist industrial lighting, including transition to LED lighting for public space use, the company’s place in the ecosystem is not undesirable. But it isn’t hugely profitable.
  • This smallcap takeout at an 86% premium is probably still too light. And the Shareholder Structure is interesting.

Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Very Early Look – US$4.3bn Prolonged Overhang or Lack Thereof

By Sumeet Singh

  • With Nissan (7201 JP) and Renault coming to a new arrangement regarding their working relationship, Renault will be left with a US$4.3bn Nissan stake that it will look to sell eventually.
  • The selldown will probably take a long while to materialize.
  • In this note, we talk about the announcement and take a very early look at the possible selldown.

Toshiba – Good News?

By Mio Kato

  • So JIP appears to have finally secured funding for its tortured Toshiba bid. 
  • The market is reacting positively and we think this is reasonable but the real question is whether Toshiba management will be amenable to the new terms of JIP’s deal. 
  • In our view, there are certain quirks regarding recent news flow which point to a potential answer to that question.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO and the Board Trading Half-Truths

By Arun George

  • YFO’s latest press release outlines the key objectives of a revamped Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board, should its recommended directors get elected at the June AGM.
  • YFO’s strategy is to revamp the Board, which should pave the way for its tender offer. YFO’s standstill agreement expires on 24 May and the tender offer starts in late-September.
  • The Board could allege that YFO has breached its NDA agreement and re-introduce a poison pill. The Board could look to garner enough support to block YFO’s nominations. 

SM Entertainment: A Rights Offering & CB Issue to Kakao Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 February, it was announced that SM Entertainment will conduct a third party rights offering and CB issue to Kakao Corp.
  • Post these deals, Kakao Corp will own a 9.05% stake in SM Entertainment.
  • The rights offering and the CB issue have all the hallmarks of an intermediate deal prior to an eventual takeover of SM Entertainment by the Kakao Group.

EQD | HSI Index: Buying the Dip Using Options

By Simon Harris

  • HSI Index has paused for breath this month underperforming most other global indices
  • The outlook for the region remains strong as reopening strength gains momentum and the Government continue to announce new supportive measures
  • We favour a buy the dip strategy and suggest using derivatives to play it

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold
  • Korea: Upcoming Changes to Dividend Rules & Implications
  • Korea NPS Reportedly Finalized Additional 50 KOSPI Stocks in Its BM for Direct Management
  • Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs
  • Renault & Nissan Deal Done: Still a Trading Nothing🍔 So Far, OK Framework but Need Shaq Fingerguns
  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer
  • Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP): Unconditional Offer at S$0.90 from Boustead Singapore
  • Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP): JPY4,460 MBO Tender Offer from Carlyle
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

By David Blennerhassett

  • Newmont Mining (NEM US), the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Australia’s largest listed gold company.  
  • The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.
  • The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.

Korea: Upcoming Changes to Dividend Rules & Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • On 31 January, Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Ministry of Justice announced plans to improve rules regarding dividends to bring them in line with international standards.
  • Companies will be able to decide the dividend amount prior to the record dates for quarterly dividends, while the ex-date of the final dividend will be post the AGM.
  • This was one of the issues highlighted by MSCI for Korea’s upgrade from EM to DM. There are also implications for the KOSPI200 futures basis and futures rolls.

Korea NPS Reportedly Finalized Additional 50 KOSPI Stocks in Its BM for Direct Management

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS said it would add 50 KOSPI stocks to KOSPI 200 for direct management. However, the key was when this would be implemented and which ones would be included.
  • SBS, one of Korea’s major networks, exclusively reported that NPS finalized the constituent stocks of the NPS-KR250 and started rebalancing trading on the 50 additional KOSPI stocks from January.
  • Hence, tracing and identifying who these additional 50 KOSPI stocks are is becoming the hottest topic in Korea’s local market at this point.

Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&P ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be one change for ASX 20 and one change for ASX 100 while ASX 200 could see four ADDs/DELs.
  • For ASX 300, there could be 15 ADDs and 12 DELs in the March 2023 Rebalance including some high impact names based on days-to-trade.

Renault & Nissan Deal Done: Still a Trading Nothing🍔 So Far, OK Framework but Need Shaq Fingerguns

By Travis Lundy

  • As “disclosed” recently, we have a deal. Nissan Motor (7201 JP) will invest “up to 15%” in Ampere. Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) may join. They have many potential joint projects.
  • The key is the Governance Framework, which replaces RAMA. Renault SA (RNO FP) puts 28.4% of Nissan in an open-ended Trust. Renault and Nissan have 15% reciprocal voting rights.
  • The webcast is more optimistic than I am. Luca de Meo made special mention of the joint projects. This sounds good. It sounds like what has always been promised.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer

By Arun George

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) confirmed a non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.380 Newmont shares per Newcrest share. 
  • The offer values Newcrest at a discount to Tier 1 gold producer EV/Resource multiples. Also, the offer carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.
  • The offer underscores Newcrest’s value and helps the Board seek better terms. There is a possibility of a counterbid from other Tier 1 producers such as Barrick Gold (GOLD US).

Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP): Unconditional Offer at S$0.90 from Boustead Singapore

By Arun George

  • Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)/BPL has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from Boustead Singapore Limited (BOCS SP) at S$0.90 per share, a 7.8% premium to the undisturbed price (3 February).
  • The offer price is unattractive in comparison to peer multiples, historical trading ranges and precedent transactions. However, the offer price is not final.
  • As Boustead Singapore aims to privatise BPL there is a possibility of a bump. The offer document will be despatched and the offer opens by 27 February.

Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP): JPY4,460 MBO Tender Offer from Carlyle

By Arun George

  • Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer, sponsored by Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), of JPY4,460 per share, an 86.1% premium to the undisturbed price (6 February).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer is attractive and represents a ten-year share price high. This suggests a done deal. The tender offer period is from 7 February to 22 March.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform
  • Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)
  • Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition
  • Merger Arb Mondays (6 Feb) – Yashili, Kingston, Origin, Pushpay, Halcyon, O2Micro, Techno Associe
  • BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate
  • Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea
  • Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
  • There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.

Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

By Brian Freitas


Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.
  • Also like Q2, they announced a buyback – this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.
  • This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.


BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March 2023.
  • We believe Healthcare names could be given top priority when selecting additions for the upcoming rebalance.
  • The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-February 2023 and implemented in early-March 2023.

Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • ARIRANG K-Defense Industry Fn ETF (449450 KS) shows the fastest AUM/ADV growth among recently listed sector ETFs. It is virtually the only one enjoying the influx of local retail investors.
  • The increasing trend of ETF AUM, coupled with the growing interest of local retail investors in the defense sector, will likely lead to flow improvement in each constituent.
  • The passive impact of some stocks in the upcoming rebalancing is expected to expand to 0.4-0.5x ADTV. Notable names in this regard are Hanwha Corporation and SNT Motiv.

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro

By Arun George


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Hang Seng Future Index: An Overview

Index Rebalancing: Understanding the Basics

By | Event-Driven, Smartkarma 101s

Index rebalancing is a key aspect of portfolio management in the stock market. It involves adjusting the composition of a stock market index in order to maintain its desired level of market representation. The process of index rebalancing is important for ensuring the index remains representative of the market and accurately reflects market trends. As a result, it’s crucial to stay informed on the latest developments and insights in the field of index rebalancing.

That’s where independent investment research network, Smartkarma, comes in. On Smartkarma, top independent analysts like Travis Lundy, Brian Freitas, Sanghyun Park, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA, and Douglas Kim, publish their insights, data, and analysis on index rebalancing and other related content verticals.

In this article, we’ll answer some of the frequently asked questions about index rebalancing, including:

I. What is Index Rebalancing Strategy?

Index rebalancing strategy refers to the plan or approach used to adjust the composition of an index. This includes determining which securities to sell or buy, and when to do so, in order to maintain the desired level of market representation in the index.

II. Which Indexes Need Rebalancing?

Any stock market index can require rebalancing if its composition deviates significantly from its intended market representation. Some of the most commonly rebalanced indexes include the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the FTSE 100, the MSCI World Index, and the Nifty 50.

III. What Happens During Index Rebalance?

During an index rebalance, securities are bought or sold in order to bring the index back to its desired level of market representation. This may be done on a set schedule, such as annually or quarterly, or it may be triggered by significant changes in the market. The rebalancing process may involve buying underrepresented securities and selling overrepresented securities in order to maintain the index’s desired level of market representation.

IV. What are the Risks of Rebalancing?

Rebalancing carries some inherent risks, including the risk of selling securities that are still performing well, and the risk of buying securities that are underperforming. Additionally, rebalancing requires buying or selling securities at specific times, which can be difficult to predict and may result in unfavorable market conditions.

V. What is the Purpose of Rebalancing?

The purpose of rebalancing is to ensure that an index remains representative of the market it is designed to track. By selling overrepresented securities and buying underrepresented securities, the index is brought back to its desired level of market representation. This helps to ensure that the index accurately reflects market trends and provides a more reliable benchmark for investors.

VI. How does a typical Index Rebalance Work?

Index rebalancing is a process of periodically adjusting the weightings of the components in a stock market index to align it with the current market conditions. This strategy helps maintain the integrity of the index, ensuring it accurately reflects the underlying market or sector it represents.

There are several indexes that need rebalancing, including the MSCI, FTSE, Russell, Nifty 50, ASX 300, and S&P 500. The frequency of rebalancing varies, with some indexes rebalancing on a monthly or quarterly basis, while others may only rebalance once or twice a year.

During an index rebalance, changes may be made to the components of the index, including additions, deletions, and weight adjustments. The objective is to ensure the index accurately reflects the market or sector it represents, taking into account changes in market conditions, company performance, and other relevant factors.

One of the main risks associated with rebalancing is the potential for increased trading costs and market impact, particularly if large amounts of stocks need to be bought or sold in a short period of time. In some cases, the process of rebalancing can also result in increased market volatility, which can negatively impact investor portfolios.

The purpose of rebalancing is to maintain the integrity of the index, ensuring it accurately reflects the underlying market or sector it represents. By periodically adjusting the weightings of the components, rebalancing helps to reduce risk and improve returns over the long-term.

There is no one-size-fits-all answer to the question of the best rebalancing strategy, as the best approach will depend on individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions. Some popular rebalancing strategies include periodic rebalancing, threshold rebalancing, and minimum variance rebalancing.

The S&P 500 rebalance works by periodically adjusting the weightings of the components to ensure the index accurately reflects the underlying market. This typically involves adding and deleting components, as well as adjusting the weightings of existing components.

While there is no guarantee that rebalancing will outperform other investment strategies, it can help to reduce risk and improve returns over the long-term by ensuring the index remains aligned with current market conditions.

The importance of index rebalancing research cannot be overstated. By keeping up-to-date with the latest trends and market conditions, investors can make informed decisions about when and how to rebalance their portfolios. At Smartkarma, an independent investment research network, top independent analysts publish their insights, data and analysis on Index Rebalancing. Some of the top independent analysts who publish on Smartkarma include Travis Lundy, Brian Freitas, Sanghyun Park, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA, and Douglas Kim. With access to this wealth of information, investors can stay ahead of the curve and make informed investment decisions.

Top Indices with Index Rebalance Research on Smartkarma in the last 12 months: 

Hang Seng Future Index: An Overview

Hang Seng Future Index: An Overview

By | Event-Driven, Smartkarma 101s

The Hang Seng Future Index is a widely-followed stock market index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE). It provides investors with an overview of the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on large and mid-cap stocks. It is widely followed by financial market participants, including investors, traders, and analysts, as a benchmark for the overall health of the Hong Kong stock market.

What is Hang Seng Index Futures?

Hang Seng Index Futures are futures contracts that are based on the Hang Seng Future Index. These contracts allow investors to gain exposure to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, without having to physically own the underlying stocks.

What are HSI future opening hours?

The opening hours of Hang Seng Index Futures are from 9:15am to 4:00pm Hong Kong Time, Monday to Friday, excluding public holidays in Hong Kong.

How to trade Hang Seng Index futures?

Trading Hang Seng Index futures can be done through a futures broker. Before trading, it is important to understand the basics of futures trading and the associated risks.

What stocks make up the Hang Seng Index?

The Hang Seng Index is comprised of 50 large and mid-cap stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The constituents of the index are reviewed regularly and are selected based on a number of criteria, including market capitalization, liquidity, and sector representation.

What is minimum lot size in HKSE?

The minimum lot size for trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange varies depending on the stock. For Hang Seng Index Futures, the minimum contract size is usually one index point, which represents a value of HKD 50,000.

Can you trade with HKSE?

Yes, it is possible to trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) through a securities broker. This allows investors to buy and sell stocks listed on the HKSE, as well as trade other financial products, such as Hang Seng Index Futures.

How many stocks are in the HSI?

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is comprised of 50 stocks.

What are the futures market hours?

The futures market hours vary depending on the exchange and the specific futures contract. For Hang Seng Index Futures, the market hours are from 9:15am to 4:00pm Hong Kong Time, Monday to Friday, excluding public holidays in Hong Kong.

What is futures last trading day?

The last trading day for a futures contract is the final day on which the contract can be traded before its expiration date. This date is determined by the exchange on which the futures contract is traded. For Hang Seng Index Futures, the last trading day is typically one business day before the expiration date of the contract.

How to buy index futures?

To buy index futures, you will need to open an account with a futures broker. You will also need to complete the necessary documentation and deposit funds into your account. Once your account is set up, you can place an order to buy Hang Seng Index Futures through your broker.

How do index futures work?

Index futures work by allowing investors to speculate on the future performance of a stock market index, such as the Hang Seng Future Index. When an investor buys a Hang Seng Index Futures contract, they are essentially betting on the direction of the index – either up or down. If the index moves in the direction that the investor predicted, they can make a profit. However, if the index moves in the opposite direction, the investor may incur a loss.

What is an example of index futures?

An example of index futures is the Hang Seng Index Futures contract. This futures contract is based on the Hang Seng Future Index and allows investors to gain exposure to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market.

Whether you are a professional investor, trader, or simply an individual looking to stay informed about the Hang Seng Future Index, the independent research network, Smartkarma, is an excellent resource to turn to for up-to-date and actionable information on index events. With top independent analysts, including Brian Freitas, Travis Lundy, Joe Jasper, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA, and more, publishing their research and insights on the platform, you can stay ahead of the curve and make informed investment decisions.

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO
  • Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro
  • Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough
  • Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO

By Brian Freitas


Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price

By David Blennerhassett

  • As expected, all conditions to the Sinochem/China Hainan Rubber (601118 CH) SPA have now been satisfied, triggering a mandatory Offer for Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), conditional on a 50% tendering.
  • Hainan Rubber holds 36%.  Sinochem has provided an undertaking notto tender its remaining 29.2% stake. Hainan needs 14% out of 34.8% available – or ~40% to tender. 
  • The takeaway disappointment is the Offer Price of S$0.413/share, down from S$0.435 at the time of the initial announcement last November, due to SGD weakness. 

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro

By David Blennerhassett


Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough

By Victor Galliano

  • StoneCo has disposed of its remaining 4.2% stake in Inter &Co, slamming the door shut on plans for a leading Brazilian neobank-paytech partnership originally announced in May 2021
  • Stone acquired 5% of Inter for BRL2.5bn in June 2021; the extent of the fintech market malaise means that currently BRL2.5bn (c USD500m) would buy close to 50% of Inter
  • This StoneCo stake disposal at least removes the Inter shares’ overhang risk; yet despite this technical relief, we reiterate that Inter’s fundamental outlook remains a challenging one

Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land

By David Blennerhassett


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