Category

Event-Driven

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toshiba (6502) – Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured – Next Steps and Risks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured – Next Steps and Risks
  • DTAC/TRUE Merger: Index Flows & Potential SET50 Replacement
  • Carlyle 86% Premium ¥4460 TOB on Iwasaki Elec – Probably Light, and Interesting Shareholder Register
  • Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Very Early Look – US$4.3bn Prolonged Overhang or Lack Thereof
  • Toshiba – Good News?
  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO and the Board Trading Half-Truths
  • SM Entertainment: A Rights Offering & CB Issue to Kakao Corp
  • EQD | HSI Index: Buying the Dip Using Options

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured – Next Steps and Risks

By Travis Lundy

  • On 31 January, the expected “deadline” for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.
  • Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.
  • That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.

DTAC/TRUE Merger: Index Flows & Potential SET50 Replacement

By Brian Freitas


Carlyle 86% Premium ¥4460 TOB on Iwasaki Elec – Probably Light, and Interesting Shareholder Register

By Travis Lundy

  • Carlyle has agreed to do an MBO on Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP) where the existing CEO who is 65yrs old will take a 0.5% stake.
  • As a purveyor of specialist industrial lighting, including transition to LED lighting for public space use, the company’s place in the ecosystem is not undesirable. But it isn’t hugely profitable.
  • This smallcap takeout at an 86% premium is probably still too light. And the Shareholder Structure is interesting.

Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Very Early Look – US$4.3bn Prolonged Overhang or Lack Thereof

By Sumeet Singh

  • With Nissan (7201 JP) and Renault coming to a new arrangement regarding their working relationship, Renault will be left with a US$4.3bn Nissan stake that it will look to sell eventually.
  • The selldown will probably take a long while to materialize.
  • In this note, we talk about the announcement and take a very early look at the possible selldown.

Toshiba – Good News?

By Mio Kato

  • So JIP appears to have finally secured funding for its tortured Toshiba bid. 
  • The market is reacting positively and we think this is reasonable but the real question is whether Toshiba management will be amenable to the new terms of JIP’s deal. 
  • In our view, there are certain quirks regarding recent news flow which point to a potential answer to that question.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO and the Board Trading Half-Truths

By Arun George

  • YFO’s latest press release outlines the key objectives of a revamped Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board, should its recommended directors get elected at the June AGM.
  • YFO’s strategy is to revamp the Board, which should pave the way for its tender offer. YFO’s standstill agreement expires on 24 May and the tender offer starts in late-September.
  • The Board could allege that YFO has breached its NDA agreement and re-introduce a poison pill. The Board could look to garner enough support to block YFO’s nominations. 

SM Entertainment: A Rights Offering & CB Issue to Kakao Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 February, it was announced that SM Entertainment will conduct a third party rights offering and CB issue to Kakao Corp.
  • Post these deals, Kakao Corp will own a 9.05% stake in SM Entertainment.
  • The rights offering and the CB issue have all the hallmarks of an intermediate deal prior to an eventual takeover of SM Entertainment by the Kakao Group.

EQD | HSI Index: Buying the Dip Using Options

By Simon Harris

  • HSI Index has paused for breath this month underperforming most other global indices
  • The outlook for the region remains strong as reopening strength gains momentum and the Government continue to announce new supportive measures
  • We favour a buy the dip strategy and suggest using derivatives to play it

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold
  • Korea: Upcoming Changes to Dividend Rules & Implications
  • Korea NPS Reportedly Finalized Additional 50 KOSPI Stocks in Its BM for Direct Management
  • Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs
  • Renault & Nissan Deal Done: Still a Trading Nothing🍔 So Far, OK Framework but Need Shaq Fingerguns
  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer
  • Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP): Unconditional Offer at S$0.90 from Boustead Singapore
  • Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP): JPY4,460 MBO Tender Offer from Carlyle
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

By David Blennerhassett

  • Newmont Mining (NEM US), the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Australia’s largest listed gold company.  
  • The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.
  • The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.

Korea: Upcoming Changes to Dividend Rules & Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • On 31 January, Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Ministry of Justice announced plans to improve rules regarding dividends to bring them in line with international standards.
  • Companies will be able to decide the dividend amount prior to the record dates for quarterly dividends, while the ex-date of the final dividend will be post the AGM.
  • This was one of the issues highlighted by MSCI for Korea’s upgrade from EM to DM. There are also implications for the KOSPI200 futures basis and futures rolls.

Korea NPS Reportedly Finalized Additional 50 KOSPI Stocks in Its BM for Direct Management

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS said it would add 50 KOSPI stocks to KOSPI 200 for direct management. However, the key was when this would be implemented and which ones would be included.
  • SBS, one of Korea’s major networks, exclusively reported that NPS finalized the constituent stocks of the NPS-KR250 and started rebalancing trading on the 50 additional KOSPI stocks from January.
  • Hence, tracing and identifying who these additional 50 KOSPI stocks are is becoming the hottest topic in Korea’s local market at this point.

Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&P ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be one change for ASX 20 and one change for ASX 100 while ASX 200 could see four ADDs/DELs.
  • For ASX 300, there could be 15 ADDs and 12 DELs in the March 2023 Rebalance including some high impact names based on days-to-trade.

Renault & Nissan Deal Done: Still a Trading Nothing🍔 So Far, OK Framework but Need Shaq Fingerguns

By Travis Lundy

  • As “disclosed” recently, we have a deal. Nissan Motor (7201 JP) will invest “up to 15%” in Ampere. Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) may join. They have many potential joint projects.
  • The key is the Governance Framework, which replaces RAMA. Renault SA (RNO FP) puts 28.4% of Nissan in an open-ended Trust. Renault and Nissan have 15% reciprocal voting rights.
  • The webcast is more optimistic than I am. Luca de Meo made special mention of the joint projects. This sounds good. It sounds like what has always been promised.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer

By Arun George

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) confirmed a non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.380 Newmont shares per Newcrest share. 
  • The offer values Newcrest at a discount to Tier 1 gold producer EV/Resource multiples. Also, the offer carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.
  • The offer underscores Newcrest’s value and helps the Board seek better terms. There is a possibility of a counterbid from other Tier 1 producers such as Barrick Gold (GOLD US).

Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP): Unconditional Offer at S$0.90 from Boustead Singapore

By Arun George

  • Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)/BPL has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from Boustead Singapore Limited (BOCS SP) at S$0.90 per share, a 7.8% premium to the undisturbed price (3 February).
  • The offer price is unattractive in comparison to peer multiples, historical trading ranges and precedent transactions. However, the offer price is not final.
  • As Boustead Singapore aims to privatise BPL there is a possibility of a bump. The offer document will be despatched and the offer opens by 27 February.

Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP): JPY4,460 MBO Tender Offer from Carlyle

By Arun George

  • Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer, sponsored by Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), of JPY4,460 per share, an 86.1% premium to the undisturbed price (6 February).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer is attractive and represents a ten-year share price high. This suggests a done deal. The tender offer period is from 7 February to 22 March.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform
  • Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)
  • Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition
  • Merger Arb Mondays (6 Feb) – Yashili, Kingston, Origin, Pushpay, Halcyon, O2Micro, Techno Associe
  • BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate
  • Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea
  • Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
  • There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.

Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

By Brian Freitas


Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.
  • Also like Q2, they announced a buyback – this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.
  • This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.


BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March 2023.
  • We believe Healthcare names could be given top priority when selecting additions for the upcoming rebalance.
  • The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-February 2023 and implemented in early-March 2023.

Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • ARIRANG K-Defense Industry Fn ETF (449450 KS) shows the fastest AUM/ADV growth among recently listed sector ETFs. It is virtually the only one enjoying the influx of local retail investors.
  • The increasing trend of ETF AUM, coupled with the growing interest of local retail investors in the defense sector, will likely lead to flow improvement in each constituent.
  • The passive impact of some stocks in the upcoming rebalancing is expected to expand to 0.4-0.5x ADTV. Notable names in this regard are Hanwha Corporation and SNT Motiv.

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro

By Arun George


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Hang Seng Future Index: An Overview

Index Rebalancing: Understanding the Basics

By | Event-Driven, Smartkarma 101s

Index rebalancing is a key aspect of portfolio management in the stock market. It involves adjusting the composition of a stock market index in order to maintain its desired level of market representation. The process of index rebalancing is important for ensuring the index remains representative of the market and accurately reflects market trends. As a result, it’s crucial to stay informed on the latest developments and insights in the field of index rebalancing.

That’s where independent investment research network, Smartkarma, comes in. On Smartkarma, top independent analysts like Travis Lundy, Brian Freitas, Sanghyun Park, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA, and Douglas Kim, publish their insights, data, and analysis on index rebalancing and other related content verticals.

In this article, we’ll answer some of the frequently asked questions about index rebalancing, including:

I. What is Index Rebalancing Strategy?

Index rebalancing strategy refers to the plan or approach used to adjust the composition of an index. This includes determining which securities to sell or buy, and when to do so, in order to maintain the desired level of market representation in the index.

II. Which Indexes Need Rebalancing?

Any stock market index can require rebalancing if its composition deviates significantly from its intended market representation. Some of the most commonly rebalanced indexes include the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the FTSE 100, the MSCI World Index, and the Nifty 50.

III. What Happens During Index Rebalance?

During an index rebalance, securities are bought or sold in order to bring the index back to its desired level of market representation. This may be done on a set schedule, such as annually or quarterly, or it may be triggered by significant changes in the market. The rebalancing process may involve buying underrepresented securities and selling overrepresented securities in order to maintain the index’s desired level of market representation.

IV. What are the Risks of Rebalancing?

Rebalancing carries some inherent risks, including the risk of selling securities that are still performing well, and the risk of buying securities that are underperforming. Additionally, rebalancing requires buying or selling securities at specific times, which can be difficult to predict and may result in unfavorable market conditions.

V. What is the Purpose of Rebalancing?

The purpose of rebalancing is to ensure that an index remains representative of the market it is designed to track. By selling overrepresented securities and buying underrepresented securities, the index is brought back to its desired level of market representation. This helps to ensure that the index accurately reflects market trends and provides a more reliable benchmark for investors.

VI. How does a typical Index Rebalance Work?

Index rebalancing is a process of periodically adjusting the weightings of the components in a stock market index to align it with the current market conditions. This strategy helps maintain the integrity of the index, ensuring it accurately reflects the underlying market or sector it represents.

There are several indexes that need rebalancing, including the MSCI, FTSE, Russell, Nifty 50, ASX 300, and S&P 500. The frequency of rebalancing varies, with some indexes rebalancing on a monthly or quarterly basis, while others may only rebalance once or twice a year.

During an index rebalance, changes may be made to the components of the index, including additions, deletions, and weight adjustments. The objective is to ensure the index accurately reflects the market or sector it represents, taking into account changes in market conditions, company performance, and other relevant factors.

One of the main risks associated with rebalancing is the potential for increased trading costs and market impact, particularly if large amounts of stocks need to be bought or sold in a short period of time. In some cases, the process of rebalancing can also result in increased market volatility, which can negatively impact investor portfolios.

The purpose of rebalancing is to maintain the integrity of the index, ensuring it accurately reflects the underlying market or sector it represents. By periodically adjusting the weightings of the components, rebalancing helps to reduce risk and improve returns over the long-term.

There is no one-size-fits-all answer to the question of the best rebalancing strategy, as the best approach will depend on individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions. Some popular rebalancing strategies include periodic rebalancing, threshold rebalancing, and minimum variance rebalancing.

The S&P 500 rebalance works by periodically adjusting the weightings of the components to ensure the index accurately reflects the underlying market. This typically involves adding and deleting components, as well as adjusting the weightings of existing components.

While there is no guarantee that rebalancing will outperform other investment strategies, it can help to reduce risk and improve returns over the long-term by ensuring the index remains aligned with current market conditions.

The importance of index rebalancing research cannot be overstated. By keeping up-to-date with the latest trends and market conditions, investors can make informed decisions about when and how to rebalance their portfolios. At Smartkarma, an independent investment research network, top independent analysts publish their insights, data and analysis on Index Rebalancing. Some of the top independent analysts who publish on Smartkarma include Travis Lundy, Brian Freitas, Sanghyun Park, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA, and Douglas Kim. With access to this wealth of information, investors can stay ahead of the curve and make informed investment decisions.

Top Indices with Index Rebalance Research on Smartkarma in the last 12 months: 

Hang Seng Future Index: An Overview

Hang Seng Future Index: An Overview

By | Event-Driven, Smartkarma 101s

The Hang Seng Future Index is a widely-followed stock market index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE). It provides investors with an overview of the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on large and mid-cap stocks. It is widely followed by financial market participants, including investors, traders, and analysts, as a benchmark for the overall health of the Hong Kong stock market.

What is Hang Seng Index Futures?

Hang Seng Index Futures are futures contracts that are based on the Hang Seng Future Index. These contracts allow investors to gain exposure to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, without having to physically own the underlying stocks.

What are HSI future opening hours?

The opening hours of Hang Seng Index Futures are from 9:15am to 4:00pm Hong Kong Time, Monday to Friday, excluding public holidays in Hong Kong.

How to trade Hang Seng Index futures?

Trading Hang Seng Index futures can be done through a futures broker. Before trading, it is important to understand the basics of futures trading and the associated risks.

What stocks make up the Hang Seng Index?

The Hang Seng Index is comprised of 50 large and mid-cap stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The constituents of the index are reviewed regularly and are selected based on a number of criteria, including market capitalization, liquidity, and sector representation.

What is minimum lot size in HKSE?

The minimum lot size for trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange varies depending on the stock. For Hang Seng Index Futures, the minimum contract size is usually one index point, which represents a value of HKD 50,000.

Can you trade with HKSE?

Yes, it is possible to trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) through a securities broker. This allows investors to buy and sell stocks listed on the HKSE, as well as trade other financial products, such as Hang Seng Index Futures.

How many stocks are in the HSI?

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is comprised of 50 stocks.

What are the futures market hours?

The futures market hours vary depending on the exchange and the specific futures contract. For Hang Seng Index Futures, the market hours are from 9:15am to 4:00pm Hong Kong Time, Monday to Friday, excluding public holidays in Hong Kong.

What is futures last trading day?

The last trading day for a futures contract is the final day on which the contract can be traded before its expiration date. This date is determined by the exchange on which the futures contract is traded. For Hang Seng Index Futures, the last trading day is typically one business day before the expiration date of the contract.

How to buy index futures?

To buy index futures, you will need to open an account with a futures broker. You will also need to complete the necessary documentation and deposit funds into your account. Once your account is set up, you can place an order to buy Hang Seng Index Futures through your broker.

How do index futures work?

Index futures work by allowing investors to speculate on the future performance of a stock market index, such as the Hang Seng Future Index. When an investor buys a Hang Seng Index Futures contract, they are essentially betting on the direction of the index – either up or down. If the index moves in the direction that the investor predicted, they can make a profit. However, if the index moves in the opposite direction, the investor may incur a loss.

What is an example of index futures?

An example of index futures is the Hang Seng Index Futures contract. This futures contract is based on the Hang Seng Future Index and allows investors to gain exposure to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market.

Whether you are a professional investor, trader, or simply an individual looking to stay informed about the Hang Seng Future Index, the independent research network, Smartkarma, is an excellent resource to turn to for up-to-date and actionable information on index events. With top independent analysts, including Brian Freitas, Travis Lundy, Joe Jasper, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA, and more, publishing their research and insights on the platform, you can stay ahead of the curve and make informed investment decisions.

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO
  • Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro
  • Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough
  • Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO

By Brian Freitas


Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price

By David Blennerhassett

  • As expected, all conditions to the Sinochem/China Hainan Rubber (601118 CH) SPA have now been satisfied, triggering a mandatory Offer for Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), conditional on a 50% tendering.
  • Hainan Rubber holds 36%.  Sinochem has provided an undertaking notto tender its remaining 29.2% stake. Hainan needs 14% out of 34.8% available – or ~40% to tender. 
  • The takeaway disappointment is the Offer Price of S$0.413/share, down from S$0.435 at the time of the initial announcement last November, due to SGD weakness. 

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro

By David Blennerhassett


Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough

By Victor Galliano

  • StoneCo has disposed of its remaining 4.2% stake in Inter &Co, slamming the door shut on plans for a leading Brazilian neobank-paytech partnership originally announced in May 2021
  • Stone acquired 5% of Inter for BRL2.5bn in June 2021; the extent of the fintech market malaise means that currently BRL2.5bn (c USD500m) would buy close to 50% of Inter
  • This StoneCo stake disposal at least removes the Inter shares’ overhang risk; yet despite this technical relief, we reiterate that Inter’s fundamental outlook remains a challenging one

Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Conditions Precedent Fulfilled and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Conditions Precedent Fulfilled, MGO at S$0.413
  • Pushpay Holdings: 3rd March Scheme Meeting. IA Says Fair
  • Pushpay (PPH NZ): Scheme Vote on 3 March but Deal Risks Are Emerging
  • Despature Family/​Somfy: Squeeze-Out, Delisting
  • EQD | SX7E(SX7E Index): Banking Sector Has Been on Fire but Can It Last?
  • Official Changes in Korea FSC’s Dividend Rules: Ramifications from a Trading Perspective

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Conditions Precedent Fulfilled, MGO at S$0.413

By Arun George

  • The conditions precedent for China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) to acquire 36.00% of Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s outstanding shares from Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) at US$0.315 is fulfilled. 
  • This will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413. On the assumption that the offer document is despatched by 17 February, the earliest close of the offer is 17 March.
  • The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities’ acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. 

Pushpay Holdings: 3rd March Scheme Meeting. IA Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28 October, church donor management play Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ/PPH AU) announced a Scheme with BGH/Sixth Street at NZ$1.34/share,  a 30.1% premium to undisturbed.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out. The shareholder meeting will take place on the 3 March. The independent advisor concluded the Offer price is within its valuation range. 
  • Assuming 11 April payment, this is trading at a gross/annualised spread of 3.0%/18.0%.

Pushpay (PPH NZ): Scheme Vote on 3 March but Deal Risks Are Emerging

By Arun George

  • Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)’s NZ$1.34 offer from Sixth Street/BGH is barely within the IE’s valuation range of NZ$1.33-1.53 per share. There is no “fair and reasonable” statement from the IE.
  • Astonishingly, Sixth Street/BGH wrote to the Takeovers Panel to raise concerns about the IE’s report. The Takeovers Panel concluded that the IE report is not misleading or deceptive. 
  • A relatively concentrated register poses a risk, particularly considering the IE’s valuation range and the re-rating of a key peer. While possible, the probability of a bump is low. 

Despature Family/​Somfy: Squeeze-Out, Delisting

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Shareholders caved in, the Despatures now hold 94.38% of SOMFY’s share capital and 96.31% of voting rights. They asked the AMF for the launch of a squeeze‐out procedure (9 February).
  • SOMFY will be delisted from Euronext Paris on 9 February. Following the squeeze-out, SOMFY intends to distribute an extraordinary dividend up to €620 million 
  • The total cost for the family is c. €1,285 million (plus investment banking and legal fees). Nearly half of that will be covered by a €620 million extraordinary dividend. Cool.

EQD | SX7E(SX7E Index): Banking Sector Has Been on Fire but Can It Last?

By Simon Harris

  • SX7E broke out of its range and has rallied 15% this year alone
  • ECB are close to the end of their hiking cycle and a lot of good news is already priced
  • Recessionary fears still remain in Europe and we see an opportunity to hedge recent gains whilst vols are low

Official Changes in Korea FSC’s Dividend Rules: Ramifications from a Trading Perspective

By Sanghyun Park

  • The new rules allow investors to decide whether to hold the stock until the dividend record date after knowing the dividend amount in advance.
  • The new rules will be applied starting with the annual dividends for this fiscal year. We will know this year’s yearend dividend amount before deciding whether to receive it.
  • From a trading perspective, the yearend dividend arb targeting ex-date mispricing will no longer be effective, which will likely change the swing trading strategy at the beginning of the year.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sumitomo Elec Buys Out Sub Techno Associé) At ¥1 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumitomo Elec Buys Out Sub Techno Associé) At ¥1,695/Share – Insulting Explanation. Deserves More.
  • Sumitomo Electric Buys Out Sub Nissin Electric (6641) At ¥1,700/Share – ATH But Still Too Low
  • Quiddity Primer: The Ongoing Evolution of the Hang Seng Index
  • Keisei Electric: Needs Activists to Push the Market
  • Nissin Electric (6641 JP): JPY1,700 Tender Offer from Sumitomo Electric
  • O2Micro Shareholders Approve Merger. Completion Remains Opaque
  • Bendigo Adelaide Bank & Bank of Queensland’s Rumoured Merger
  • Dentium: An Undervalued Corporate Activist Target + Likely Inclusion Candidate for KOSPI 200 in 2023
  • Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report
  • Pertamina Geothermal Energy IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Sumitomo Elec Buys Out Sub Techno Associé) At ¥1,695/Share – Insulting Explanation. Deserves More.

By Travis Lundy

  • Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) is taking over to subs through tender offers. Both are light. Both this one for Techno Associe (8249 JP) and the one for Nissin Electric.
  • Both deals are light -slightly offensive, but in different ways. The Board decisions are more offensive than the actual prices, but it’s Sumi Elec buying, so those are offensive too.
  • There’s a history here. Sumi Elec went to 51% at an offensively low price (EV/EBITDA below zero) in 2019. But this is probably a done deal anyway.

Sumitomo Electric Buys Out Sub Nissin Electric (6641) At ¥1,700/Share – ATH But Still Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) has announced a takeover of two of its subsidiaries today. The larger one is Nissin Electric (6641 JP)
  • This deal, done for governance purposes, hits an all-time high price. But, like others, it ignores synergies in pricing, has an inadequate premium, and process is just bad.
  • But given the shareholder structure, this is highly likely to sail through un-molested. 

Quiddity Primer: The Ongoing Evolution of the Hang Seng Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) is a blue-chip index that represents the performance of the large cap stocks listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • The index is undergoing some significant composition changes and the index provider currently uses a highly subjective constituent selection process which is quite challenging to decode.
  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s approach to solving this Hang Seng constituent selection puzzle and the historical performance of past rebalance events.

Keisei Electric: Needs Activists to Push the Market

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • We think there’s something fundamentally wrong with Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)’s current valuation.
  • Its core business with an estimated fair value of ¥720bn, currently has an implied valuation of negative ¥942bn (stub value).
  • If investors can convince the management to dispose its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), we think there’s more than a 200% upside to Keisei Electric’s valuation.

Nissin Electric (6641 JP): JPY1,700 Tender Offer from Sumitomo Electric

By Arun George

  • Nissin Electric (6641 JP) has recommended Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,700 per share, an 22.7% premium to the undisturbed price (2 February).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer is attractive in comparison to peer multiples and historical price ranges. Excluding the offeror, there are no substantial shareholders. This suggests a done deal. 

O2Micro Shareholders Approve Merger. Completion Remains Opaque

By David Blennerhassett

  • At the EGM held on January 31, O2Micro International (OIIM US)’s shareholders voted in favoor of the Merger Agreement.
  • The Offerors didn’t have the necessary two-thirds for the voter to be a foregone conclusion, therefore the outcome wasn’t assured. Although it was an okay offer. With proxy advisor support.
  • Yet even after the vote, this is still trading 7.1% below terms. The drawn-out completion of Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US) is evidently uppermost in investors’ minds. 

Bendigo Adelaide Bank & Bank of Queensland’s Rumoured Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Aussie local press is discussing renewed merger talks for Bendigo And Adelaide Bank (BEN AU) and Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU).
  • Talks of a merger are not new. And we have been here before when BOQ twice made overtures to Bendigo in 2007, but was rejected. 
  • The swift removal of BOQ’s CEO, a lifetime high ratio – BEN/BOQ – and ANZ (ANZ AU)‘s tilt for Suncorp Bank – suggests a merger makes a lot of sense.

Dentium: An Undervalued Corporate Activist Target + Likely Inclusion Candidate for KOSPI 200 in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We believe Dentium is an attractive stock to own right now. It has an excellent combination of strong growth in sales and profits and discounted valuations.
  • Driven by its strong share price appreciation in the past year, Dentium now has become a strong candidate for a potential inclusion in KOSPI 200 index in 2023.
  • There is a growing probability that Dentium could be targeted by corporate activists to pressure the company to cancel treasury shares and provide higher dividends. 

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; 
  • Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.
  • Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).

Pertamina Geothermal Energy IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) is offering 10.35bn shares in its IPO at a price range of IDR 820-945/share to raise between US$567-653m and valuing the company between US$2.27-2.61bn.
  • The stock will not get fast entry to the MSCI, FTSE or local Indonesia indices (IDX30 Index/ LQ45 Index/ IDX80 Index).
  • The stock should be added to MSCI Small Cap in May and to the FTSE All-Cap in September bringing in some passive flow.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate – What Is Float? What Is “The Tricky Twist”? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate – What Is Float? What Is “The Tricky Twist”?
  • Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M: STI Inclusion Possibility & Other Index Flow
  • TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2023
  • Greatview Aseptic (468 HK): Rival Purchases And Grandstanding
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand
  • O2Micro (OIIM US): US$5 Privatisation Approved, Spread Remains Wide

Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate – What Is Float? What Is “The Tricky Twist”?

By Travis Lundy

  • As discussed in Nikkei 225 March Review – Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023) (and earlier versions), Oriental Land (4661 JP) is a candidate to join the Nikkei 225 in March 2023.
  • As of early January, it was the top-ranked impact name with 11.8 days of ADV to buy, and if it underperformed the Nikkei from there, there’d be more to buy. 
  • With the data collection period now complete, it is top-ranked, still. And it is still ~10-12 days to buy. Understanding shareholder structure, however, is key. So I dive in.

Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M: STI Inclusion Possibility & Other Index Flow

By Brian Freitas


TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2023

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. 
  • For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. 
  • Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2023.

Greatview Aseptic (468 HK): Rival Purchases And Grandstanding

By David Blennerhassett


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for Esso Thailand (ESSO TB).
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

O2Micro (OIIM US): US$5 Privatisation Approved, Spread Remains Wide

By Arun George

  • O2Micro International (OIIM US)‘s US$5.00 per ADS privatisation offer from FNOF Precious Honour Limited was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders.
  • The key remaining condition precedent is obtaining the required regulatory approvals related to the listing rules of NASDAQ and the Cayman Islands. There are no Chinese regulatory approvals required.
  • The conditions precedent should be satisfied shortly. At the current price and for an end-March close, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 6.4% and 45.6%, respectively. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Mickey Upstages Keisei Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Mickey Upstages Keisei Electric
  • MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends
  • Toshiba (6502) – Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.
  • Sembcorp Marine-Keppel O&M Merger Circular Squeaks In Under The Wire – Next Steps
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Financing Deadline Slips Again as the 3Q Update Looms
  • Dufry/Autogrill: Deal Progress
  • ActivistTalk: Bed Bath & Beyond at Death’s Door

StubWorld: Mickey Upstages Keisei Electric

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is trading “cheap” as Oriental Land (4661 JP) enjoys a zero-Covid revival.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei/Oriental Land, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the February Quarterly Comprehensive Index Review (QCIR) of the MSCI indices ended yesterday. There will be a number of changes in the Asia Pacific region.
  • Most of the inclusions are in China and the country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index should increase leading to outflows from other markets.
  • On average, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few weeks. At a glance, pre-positioning appears to be lighter than in the past.

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.

By Travis Lundy

  • The original bid was supposed to be presented fully-funded by 30 September 2022. Then it was early November, then late November, then early December, late Dec, early Jan, end Jan. 
  • Today we find out that The Banks and The Preferred JIP Bidding Consortium will aim to reach agreement by 3 Feb. The Bloomberg article details are newish, and odd. 
  • Shares have deteriorated and vs Peers, they are at their lowest point in many months. And the details do not make me confident this deal is clean yet. 

Sembcorp Marine-Keppel O&M Merger Circular Squeaks In Under The Wire – Next Steps

By Travis Lundy

  • Last Friday, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) announced it had Approval-In-Principle for its Proposed Combination with Keppel Corp (KEP SP), contingent on the Circular being despatched by 31 January 2023.  
  • At 6:50pm local time on 31 January, Sembcorp Marine released its 679-page Circular (and EGM Announcement (16 Feb EGM)). Phew! 
  • Now we have a deal in sight, we have to think about next steps. SMM NEWCO needs a story vs flow. Orderbook is nice but may not cut it near-term.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Financing Deadline Slips Again as the 3Q Update Looms

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has again extended the deadline for securing bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion).
  • A new issue has pushed the deadline to 3 February. If JIP manages to secure financing for an offer of around JPY5,100, the next challenge is securing Board support.
  • The 3QFY2022 update on 14 February needs to avoid further downgrades to keep the deal alive. Toshiba’s multiples are unattractive to peers. Remain on the sidelines for now.

Dufry/Autogrill: Deal Progress

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The deal is done with the transfer of Edizione’s 50.3% stake in Autogrill under way, and with  all main hurdles cleared. Dufry must launch and offer to buy out minorities. 
  • Autogrill shares closed at €6.698 on 30 January, also the implied value of the 0.158 Autogrill/Dufry share swap is 5.8% above the €6.33/share “initial” cash offer. The market expects more.
  • The deal will not fall through but the price is still being negotiated, possibly around €6.8-6.9/share. The issue will now become what dilution/leverage will Dufry’s patient shareholders endure.

ActivistTalk: Bed Bath & Beyond at Death’s Door

By Robert Sassoon

  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) , the one-time iconic US homes good retailer, whose financial condition has continued to deteriorate rapidly, is barreling towards bankruptcy  sooner rather than later
  • A default notice on one of its primary credit facilities has been served and failure to make a bond interest payment on Feb 1 could well seal its fate
  • There may not be any money left for its equity holders to recover which means there  is a real prospect of the BBBY share price moving rapidly to zero

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