Event-Driven

The September 2023 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is tomorrow at the close. This will engender a lot of buying of three names, and a lot of selling of 3 names.
It will also engender a funding trade of nearly ¥460bn.
I am going to beat the dead horse and warn about certain issues with this rebalance.

Taiwan Cement GDRs Early Look – While Momentum Is Not the Greatest, the Deal Is Very Well Flagged

By Clarence Chu

Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering. Included is another planned raising of US$500m via convertible bonds.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with TC requiring multiple approvals, and thus providing ample time for investors to position for the raising.
As of last close, the amount of shares to be offered under the equity component is around 388m shares, or 19.5 days of three month ADV.

PCOMP Adhoc Index Rebalance: NIKL to Replace UBP in a BIG Move

In a surprise development, UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM) will be deleted from the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) and replaced with Nickel Asia (NIKL PM).
There will be a BIG impact on both stocks as a result of the change with passive trackers need to trade in excess of 30 days ADV.
Expect both stocks to move today and then continue that move for the next few days till the changes are implemented.

GS AM Consortium/Kahoot: Waiving of Minimum Acceptance, Spread

On 28 September, Kangaroo Bidco announced that it waives the Minimum Acceptance Condition (>90% acceptances) of its best and final NOK 35/share offer for Kahoot! ASA (KAHOOT NO).
Acceptances so far total 69.29%. The only remaining conditions are regulatory approvals from both China and United States.
As of early afternoon 28 September, spread is 0.63%/5.55% (gross/annualised). Although volumes are thin, I expect higher volumes in the last stretch of the offer period. Recommendation: long and tender.

Offer Results and Interim Dividend

The Offer has been accepted for 19.2% of the current share capital, which means that EQT will control 98.2% of the shares.
Those who tendered will receive a €3.2/share interim dividend (€2.72/share net) on 4 October, and €12.8/share on 6 October. EQT doesn’t intend to seek a squeeze-out.
Investors in SUSE who have not tendered will become soonish shareholders in an unlisted company. Buying now means an 18.8% yield (net), and hoping for a future purchase offer.

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Sep 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology
Haitong Int’l Securities (665 HK): Possible Offer From Parent
System Information Co (3677 JP) “MBO” By Bain an Exit Trade for Founder+CEO+Employees
SK Square: M&A of 11st – Alibaba Out and Qoo10 In?
Doosan Robotics (454910 KS): Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline
Details About KOSPI & KOSDAQ Lock-Up Release Stocks for October
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in October 2023
Updated TOPIX Selldown and Index Flows This Week – Initial TOPIX Selldown of Toshiba NEXT Month
NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry
System Information (3677 JP): Bain Backed MBO’s JPY930 Tender Offer

Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology

The official announcement from KRX regarding the KOSPI 200 rebalancing rule change is expected to be released shortly after the end of October.
The rule change will take effect beginning with this year’s December rebalancing. An official from KRX has communicated that we can confidently regard this as confirmed.
It is essential to be aware that during this December review, there exists a significant potential for generating substantial price fluctuations within a narrow timeframe.

Haitong Int’l Securities (665 HK): Possible Offer From Parent

Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK) (HITSEC) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong’s Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
The rumour doing the rounds is that Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH) (HSC) may take private its 73.4%-held Hong Kong-listed investment banking unit.
HITSEC’s share performance since 1Q18 has been tragic. Financials have been dire since 2H20. But expect a punchy premium if HTS does seek to take HITSEC private.

System Information Co (3677 JP) “MBO” By Bain an Exit Trade for Founder+CEO+Employees

The stock is down more than 50% from its high 3yrs ago. The founder is 79. The CEO is 75. Employees and former directors own another 10%.
This is an exit vs an MBO. And the Target Side negotiating the exit were rolled by Bain. This is NOT an expensive purchase. Bain’s equity check is 2.3x EBIT.
But it probably gets done anyway unless someone gets noisy. For that, they’d have to buy a 10-15% stake I expect.

SK Square: M&A of 11st – Alibaba Out and Qoo10 In?

On 27 September, Maeil Business Daily reported that SK Square signed an MOU with Qoo10 to pursue a joint management of 11st.
It appears that Alibaba may have been reviewing this deal but it is no longer interested in pursuing 11st.
A deal between Qoo10 and 11st could occur, but this is not certain, which means some of the cash proceeds to FI would need to be burdened by SK Square.

Doosan Robotics (454910 KS): Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) is principally engaged in the manufacture and sale of industrial robots.
Doosan Robotics has raised KRW 421bn (US$311m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 1,685bn (US$1.245bn). Float at listing will vary from 6%-21% depending on index provider.
Inclusion in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) and other global indices will take place between Feb (possibly May) and June next year.

Details About KOSPI & KOSDAQ Lock-Up Release Stocks for October

In KOSPI, all eyes are on Ottogi Corporation, a constituent of the KOSPI 200 index. 8.38% of SO’s shares are about to be unleashed.
In KOSDAQ, the focus is on CanariaBio and Coocon Corp, both of which are constituents of the KOSDAQ 150. They are set to release shares on October 28th.
For Fadu, a two-month IPO lock-up is being released, accounting for 2.5% of SO.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in October 2023

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in October 2023, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 43 are in KOSDAQ.
These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in October and could underperform relative to the market.
Among these 45 stocks, top five market cap stocks include Fadu, Ottogi Corporation, CanariaBio, Top Material, and PhilEnergy.

Updated TOPIX Selldown and Index Flows This Week – Initial TOPIX Selldown of Toshiba NEXT Month

Last week on 20 Sep I published Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule and Sunday, The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour.
They were based on an expectation the TSE would announce the initial selldown for Sep-end as they normally would. Unbeknownst to me, on 22 Sep they announced end-Oct.
The initial TOPIX selldown is 30 Oct, not 28 Sep. This affects expected reverse funding today.

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50, NSE Nifty Bank, CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.
Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.
The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures & options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.

System Information (3677 JP): Bain Backed MBO’s JPY930 Tender Offer

System Information (3677 JP) has recommended Bain’s tender offer of JPY930 per share, a 21.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 September).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 50.69% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 19.69% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 37.0% minority acceptance rate. The tender offer is reasonable.

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Sep 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Rakuten Bank (5838) One Month Later and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Rakuten Bank (5838) One Month Later
EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion
Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO’s Potential Revised Offer at JPY1,255
Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North
Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 7 Changes Possible Including Two Intra-Review Changes
Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM’s New Stock Listing Date
Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: One MDAX Change and Three SDAX Changes Possible
EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD
Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell

Rakuten Bank (5838) One Month Later

On 31 August, I published Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks. It’s up 40.6% since the day after I wrote, reasons unclear.
TOPIX Banks Index is up 10.4% since then, with post-BOJ meeting price movements indicating a kind of momiai.
For Rakuten Bank, while growth means it may not be “expensive” it is no longer dirt cheap. And I cannot identify the culprit, so time to take profits.

EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion

EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) was founded in 2017 and specializes in manufacturing cathode material precursors, a core material for lithium secondary cells.
EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) could raise between US$387m-US$492m, valuing the company between US$1.9bn-US$2.42bn. Float will depend on voluntary lock-ups and allocation to strategic investors.
Inclusion in global indices is likely to take place between February to June, while the highest probability of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) inclusion is in December 2024.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO’s Potential Revised Offer at JPY1,255

YFO has returned with a potential tender offer price of JPY1,255 per share for Toyo Construction (1890 JP), 25.5% above its previous offer of JPY1,000 per share.
The offer is conditional on due diligence access to confirm the feasibility of the medium-term management plan and no material accounting, tax, or legal issues.
The due diligence will take a month, with the offer expected to commence in late December. Expect due diligence access as the revised offer represents a 10-year high.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Yantai North Andre Juice H (2218 HK).

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 7 Changes Possible Including Two Intra-Review Changes

In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the SE600 and EURSTX Indices for the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to seven index changes in the run up to the December 2023 rebalance.
This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC) takeover situations.

Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM’s New Stock Listing Date

Should the stock conversion decision be reached this week, the new shares will be listed on the 15th of the upcoming month. So, they will officially debut on October 16th.
On the day of the new share listing during the immediate previous case, the price dropped by 2.36%, and on the very next trading day, it declined by 3.72%.
Given the present dilution rate of 30%, there is a higher probability of even more pronounced price movements in the same direction.

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: One MDAX Change and Three SDAX Changes Possible

In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.
I currently do not see any index changes for DAX but Fresenius Medical Care & (FME GR) and Zalando (ZAL GR) are close to being an ADD and DELETE respectively.
I see one change for the MDAX index. Separately, there could be up to three SDAX change in the run up to the December 2023 review including one intra-review change.

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

By Nico Rosti

The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.
Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at <=324, the index will have a >75% probability to close the next week up.
Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach <300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.

Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell

By Sumeet Singh

Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Sep 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!
InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away
KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023
Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot
YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!

In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
The estimate for one-way capping flow in December 2023 is US$1.2bn.

InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair

On 9 August, PE outfit TPG and InvoCare (IVC AU), Australia’s leading funeral services provider, entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement at A$12.70/share, inclusive of a A$0.60/share fully franked dividend.
TPG’s had previously tabled A$12.65/share on the 7 March, which InvoCare summarily rejected.
The Scheme Booklet is now out. InvoCare shareholders vote on the transaction on the 31 October, with implementation on the 24 November. The IE says terms are “fair and reasonable“.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away

In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the December 2023 Rebalance.
At present, I do not expect any index changes for the T50 index but there could be one change for the T100 index.
More interestingly, out of the top 10 T100 Potential DELETEs, there are five TDIV members and it will be worth tracking their rankings over the next 2 months.

KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023

In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusion and exclusion candidates for the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023.
The 8 lowest market cap stocks in KOSDAQ 150 are among the main candidates to be excluded from the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023.
Potential inclusions for KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023 include Fadu, GigaVis, Jeio, PhilEnergy, and Manyo Factory.

Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot

By Sumeet Singh

Leapmotor (9863 HK) (LM) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. The stock was listed in Sep 2022, its lockup on pre-IPO investors will expire on 29th Sep 2023.
LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share

Last night Reuters teased a headline saying the Nintendo Family Office called YFO (and related entities) would raise its proposed takeover price for Toyo Construction to ¥1255/share.
Recently, the company had agreed to start an investigation and YFO had dropped its demands for an EGM. In Q1, the company reporetd Revenues +18.6%yoy, reasonably in-line with original guidance.
This new price comes at a 1% premium to previous close, and is meant to start discussions. The Board has indicated it will start deliberations tomorrow.

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst
Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare
Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23): Financials & Communications Dominate Flows
Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers
Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex

The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour

Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.
Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!

This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw HKD 14.5bn+ of net buying. That makes ten weeks of net inflows.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), JSR Corp (4185 JP), DDH1 (DDH AU), ENM Holdings (128 HK).
Lowest spreads – Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Healius (HLS AU), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Pacific Current (PAC AU).

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23): Financials & Communications Dominate Flows

The Brand-Spanking New (7 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it and brought it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
The last 6 weeks (since the start of the new Monitor and Portfolio 7 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex

This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw small net buying for the first week in seven.

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Sep 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI
KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process
Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals this week: Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)‘s Scheme.
Key updates took place for: Costa Group (CGC AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Healius (HLS AU), Symbio (SYM AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM).

KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process

Korea Exchange is planning to change the criteria for rebalancing stocks in the KOSPI 200 index.
The purpose of this change is to prevent stocks that surge ahead of the actual KOSPI 200 inclusion but fall significantly after the inclusion announcement.
We think there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

The Newmont (NEM US) CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.
Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus NV (PRX NA)‘s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to Tencent (700 HK), should continue unabated.
Activist shareholders and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.

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Sep 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks
Hedin and Lithia Struggle for Pendragon
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots
Symbio (SYM AU): Superloop’s Best and Final Offer

Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks

Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) led consortium at A$3.20 per share.
The key conditions are regulatory and shareholder approval. China SAMR regulatory approval poses a risk, primarily related to timing. Costa anticipates completion in 1Q24.
The headcount test related to the retail vote remains a risk. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the offer’s upside (3.6% at last close).

Hedin and Lithia Struggle for Pendragon

My comparables derived valuation of Pendragon PLC (PDG LN) is 32p/share, above the value of Lithia’s “package” and spot-on Hedin’s unsolicited & preliminary revised offer (well above its initial lowball offer).
The market seems skeptical about the future prospects of Pinewood. Putting it on a 13.3x multiple, the value of the business would still be c. 11p/share, hardly a game-changer.
The revised Hedin’s offer is 17% above Lithia’s, with no execution risk (Hedin backing off again seems less likely), and probably enough to win Board’s recommendation. Gross spread, 5.6%. Long.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Symbio (SYM AU): Superloop’s Best and Final Offer

Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) disclosed a revised indicative “best and final” proposal from Superloop Ltd (SLC AU). The terms (A$1.425 cash and 2.14 SLC shares per SYM share) remain unchanged.
The two key changes are there is no due diligence condition and a mix-and-match option subject to scale back to achieve a maximum of 60% cash or 60% scrip.
The offer is conditional on entering a scheme implementation agreement by 29 September. The offer is palatable and the Board is likely to succumb and sign a binding agreement.

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Sep 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later
SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba
Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NAVF Selldown and Proration for NTT’s Partial Offer
A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal
KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening
Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).
The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.

SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba

In this insight, we provide an updated valuation analysis of SK Square (402340 KS) amid a potential sale of 11st to Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US).
Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 65,069 won, representing a 55% upside from current levels.
If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more share buybacks.

Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NAVF Selldown and Proration for NTT’s Partial Offer

Nippon Active Value Fund PLC (NAVF LN)’s jointly-held shareholding in Intage Holdings (4326 JP) has declined from 11.28% to 9.52% of outstanding shares (disclosed on 20 September).
NAVF wants to take as much money off the table as possible as NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)’s partial offer price represents an all-time high.
Our revised minimum proration is 53.31%. NAVF’s action suggests that the minimum acceptance condition, which requires a 20% minority acceptance rate, should be satisfied.

A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal

We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.
Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.
Monitoring Doosan Robotics’s market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.

KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening

In addition to full market cap and trading value, float-adjusted market cap will be added as a quantitative screening tool.
Regarding extreme price increases, KRX plans to utilize the deviation between the average daily market capitalizations for two, three, and six months leading up to the screening base date.
We should consider designing trading setups that target stocks with relatively low free-float rates and high price volatility in recent months.

Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid

On the 18 September, Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) announced A$3.20/share best and final Offer from Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) down from the A$3.50/share NBIO in July.
Costa’s shares wobbled – would they, won’t they be supportive? A break price beyond the undisturbed price loomed. Vanguard kicked out a chunk of shares below A$3.
This morning Costa and PSP entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed. The transaction is expected to close in 1Q24. Key conditions are Costa’s shareholder vote and FIRB/SAMR/EU approval.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be a couple of intra-review changes in the next 2-3 months but the intra-review replacement names could depend on the timing of these changes.
Separately, I see one regular ADD and DELETE for F250 in December 2023 but many names are close to the border and index change expectations could change if prices fluctuate.

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Sep 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule
Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows
PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Delisting Could See Bloomberry Added
Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
Descente a Key Part of Itochu’s Plans in Sports
StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap
Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)
HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing
Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp

Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule

The JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) closes today. I expect that we will see results announced as early as late tonight, but by law, by latest tomorrow.
There will be at least three major index downweights, and possibly deletions, most likely in the following five trading days.
This shows the approximate maximum share and dollar amounts to be sold, and approximate dates.

Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows

In August, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) launched a Tender offer on Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) to buy out minorities.
That tender offer ended last week, with Itochu and the acquirer vehicle owning 85+%.
Interestingly, there are near-term flow events as a result. Worth watching.

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Delisting Could See Bloomberry Added

Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) has announced that the public float of the stock will drop to 2.78% following the Tender Offer.
Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) shares are expected to be suspended from 26 September. That could see Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) added to the PCOMP INDEX on 25 September.
There will be large passive inflows to Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) as well as flows from active managers that track the PCOMP INDEX.

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

Back in February, Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold. Newmont bumped, there was due dili, then Newcrest Backs Newmont’s US$19bn Offer in May.
More recently, we have Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct, with a prescribed schedule. That makes things fun.
There will be considerable movement of shares, and that will mean opportunity. Both up and down. I see US$3bn to buy, then A$1.5bn or more to sell a bit later.

Descente a Key Part of Itochu’s Plans in Sports

By Michael Causton

Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.
While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.
The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers.
Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Early on Monday morning, Naspers and Prosus announced the immediate resignation of CEO Bob van Dijk. Management hosted an investor call shortly after. Key takeaways are included below.
Ervin Tu, Group Chief Investment Officer, will take over as Interim CEO. Tu is a strong candidate for the permanent position.
After an initial bounce at the open, both counters sold off, widening the discounts by more than 1 percentage point intra-day.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.
There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).

HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing

On 20 September, HLB Inc announced that it has hired Korea Investment & Securities as an advisor for a potential switch from KOSDAQ to KOSPI listing.
In our view, there is a 80-90%+ probability of HLB switching its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI sometime in the next 6-12 months.
If HLB finally decides to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI, it is likely that HLB will be included in KOSPI 200 index in 2024.

Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp

Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR) offered a (full) price of DKK 735/share for SimCorp A/S (SIM DC) to grow in data & analytics. I recommend long. Acceptances total roughly 93.65% of share capital.
All conditions and approvals, including minimum acceptance of 50%+1 share have been fulfilled. Final results should be announced on 22 September and settlement should take place on 29 September.
Deutsche Börse will as soon as possible seek to initiate and complete a compulsory acquisition. After a recent dip, the shares trade again at the offer price.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Sep 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Midea Group (000333 CH): H-Share Listing & Index Implications and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Midea Group (000333 CH): H-Share Listing & Index Implications
Korea NPS’s Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know
Prosus/Naspers: Business As Usual As CEO Steps Down
Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: Foreign Companies Eligible from December
Tata Motors (TTMT/A IN) – Index Inclusion & The DVR Arb
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘23 Report
CellSource (4880) TOPIX Inclusion Coming Up
SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Lock-Up – A US$1bn Lockup Release, Will Sell a Little at Some Point
EQD | NIFTY Index New WEEKLY Supports Analysis for LONG Trades

Midea Group (000333 CH): H-Share Listing & Index Implications

Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) could raise between HK$35-54bn (US$4.5-6.9bn) in its H-share listing depending on the H-shares discount and exercise of the overallotment option.
The H-shares could get Fast Entry to some global indices depending on the number of shares that are allotted to cornerstone and/or strategic investors.
The H-shares will be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the end of the price stabilisation period. Inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index will come later.

Korea NPS’s Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

The proposal to increase NPS’s annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.
It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.
Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.

Prosus/Naspers: Business As Usual As CEO Steps Down

Bob van Dijk, CEO of both Naspers (NPN SJ) and Prosus NV (PRX NA), has stepped down, effective 18 September.
Van Dijk was instrumental in the 2019 listing of Prosus and the creation (and subsequent unwinding) of the highly-criticised Prosus/Naspers cross-holding structure.
His departure should have minimal impact. Everything else basically stays the same. Continue to be long Prosus vs. NAV – that is, Prosus vs. Tencent (700 HK).

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: Foreign Companies Eligible from December

The move from 80 index constituents to 100 could take most of next year (and possibly even the year after that) to manage turnover and add profitable companies.
Foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the index from the December rebalance. That makes Samsonite (1910 HK) a high probability inclusion candidate.
We highlight 8 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.6-4.3 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.

Tata Motors (TTMT/A IN) – Index Inclusion & The DVR Arb

Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) now trades at a 32.9% discount to Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and there is another 4.4% in the trade following the scheme of arrangement.
Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) could be added to global indices in November and that will bring significant inflows to the stock.
The pre-positioning and passive buying could lead to the DVR discount narrowing further and provide trading opportunities for the next few weeks.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘23 Report

Since mid-August, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (probably the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.

CellSource (4880) TOPIX Inclusion Coming Up