Category

Event-Driven

Dec 19
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?
  • Link Admin (LNK AU): Mitsubishi UFJ’s Bittersweet Scheme
  • LG Display: Announces a Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.36 Trillion Won
  • Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer
  • Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Non-Binding A$3.20 Offer
  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) Frowns On Genesis’ Offer
  • Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates
  • EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Pullback: Where to Re-Enter LONG?
  • Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offering of 50% of Outstanding Shares

Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

By Travis Lundy

  • The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. 
  • It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is “good risk arb risk”
  • But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details here.

Link Admin (LNK AU): Mitsubishi UFJ’s Bittersweet Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Link Administration (LNK AU), the largest provider of services in Australia’s superannuation administration industry, has entered into a Scheme with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
  • MUFJ is offering long-suffering Link shareholders A$2.10/share (in cash) plus a A$0.16/share dividend (25% franked), or a 32.9% premium, all-in, to the undisturbed price. It has not been declared final. 
  • The Offer has the board’s backing. A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in May with possible completion in June 2024. 

LG Display: Announces a Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.36 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • LG Display announced today that it will conduct a rights offering capital raise worth 1.36 trillion won. 
  • The rights offering capital raise involves 142 million shares, which represent 39.7% of its existing outstanding shares. 
  • We believe this rights offering will have a negative impact on LG Display’s share price as it will significantly dilute existing shareholders. 

Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • Link Administration (LNK AU) has entered a SID with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) at A$2.26 (A$2.10 scheme consideration + A$0.16 dividend), a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose a challenge for the scheme to get up. 
  • MUFG’s offer could spark a rival offer, but Link’s long-suffering shareholders have endured a history of failed bids. At the last close, the risk/reward is unfavourable.

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Non-Binding A$3.20 Offer

By Arun George

  • Adbri (ABC AU) has disclosed a non-binding proposal from CRH (CRH LN) and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).
  • The offer is the best and final offer. The Board has granted an exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 28 February 2024. 
  • The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal. The offer requires FIRB approval (ACCC approval is not mentioned). The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges.  

Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) Frowns On Genesis’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), an operator of dental centers, has announced – and immediately rejected – a non-binding proposal from Genesis Capital Manager.
  • Genesis, holder of 18.75% of shares out, has offered A$1.40/share, by way of a Scheme. That’s a less-than-inspiring 17.1% premium to last close. 
  • PSQ calls the Offer “opportunistically timed”. That has merit, after the share price recently touched a multi-year low.  Separately, PSQ is seeking a new CEO after Mckenzie resigned in August.

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

By Sanghyun Park

  • The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures’ spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.
  • Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures’ calendar spread trading.
  • Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.

EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Pullback: Where to Re-Enter LONG?

By Nico Rosti

  • 7 weeks up in a row and very overbought, the NIFTY Index could pullback from its highs this week and/or the next.
  • A pullback to the 21008-20542 support area could be an occasion to enter LONG, profitable if the index rebounds from there and continues to rally into January.
  • The potential pullback appears to be a short-lived retracement down, based on MRM pattern readings.

Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offering of 50% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Last week, Taihan Electric Wire announced a rights offering of 50% of its outstanding shares.  The company is expected to raise 526 billion won. 
  • Taihan Electric Wire is expected to use the rights offering proceeds to mostly expand its submarine cable production.
  • With the share price falling 21% since the announcement of the rights offering last week, Taihan Electric Wire looks more attractive.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 18
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.
  • Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) – Regional Bank NEW SHARE Issue – Not What You Want To See, But Buy Anyway
  • Merger Arb Mondays (18 Dec) – Shinko Electric, Benefit One, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Costa, Volpara
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves
  • Hankook & Company (000240 KS): MBK Raises Partial Offer to KRW24,000
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15Dec23); CNOOC/Telecom/Mobile All Now To The Buy Side, Tencent NOT
  • Hankook & Co Tender: Clues to Gauge Cancellation Risk Obtained Through Local Channels So Far
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold
  • Adbri (ABC AU) Warms To CRH/Barro’s Offer
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. 
  • Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts. 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. 

Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) – Regional Bank NEW SHARE Issue – Not What You Want To See, But Buy Anyway

By Travis Lundy

  • On 5 December, Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) – a holding company for two regional banks based in Tokushima Prefecture and Kagawa Prefecture – announced (gasp!) a NEW SHARE OFFERING. 
  • It offered 28mm shares + 4.2mm greenshoe – a share count increase of 20%. At 0.27x book. This IS unusual. Especially when banks are being asked to produce better ROC. 
  • The deal priced at ¥366. We’re there now. Banks have been sold. It is worth looking at where we are and what could happen next. It’s cheap.

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Dec) – Shinko Electric, Benefit One, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Costa, Volpara

By Arun George

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves

By Brian Freitas

  • The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
  • Stocks with buy flows dropped 0.51% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows dropped 0.92%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -0.21% vs -0.75%.
  • Since the start of November, the adds have outperformed the deletes and the TWSE INDEX. There has been significant outperformance in just the last week.

Hankook & Company (000240 KS): MBK Raises Partial Offer to KRW24,000

By Arun George

  • MBK Partners has increased its Hankook & Company (000240 KS) partial tender offer to KRW24,000 per share, 20.0% and 51.4% above its previous offer and the last close, respectively.
  • While the offer is attractive, we estimate that the minimum acceptance condition of 19.3 million shares (20.35% of outstanding shares) requires an 84.3% minority acceptance rate. 
  • The minority acceptance rate is challenging unless MBK can secure a ruling preventing share purchases from Cho Yang-rai, who disclosed a 2.72% stake on 14 December and opposes the tender. 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15Dec23); CNOOC/Telecom/Mobile All Now To The Buy Side, Tencent NOT

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a fourth week. Hs rebound vs their As on the week – especially the liquid ones.
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$9.9bn of OUTflows on the week to 15 Dec, ALL of which was net sales of Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Tencent (700 HK). 
  • High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) seeing net buying as a percentage of volume. 

Hankook & Co Tender: Clues to Gauge Cancellation Risk Obtained Through Local Channels So Far

By Sanghyun Park

  • Critical now is estimating MBK’s achievable volume in the tender offer, a key indicator for assessing cancellation risk. Evidence suggests few allies for Cho Hyun-beom, prompting MBK’s strategic persistence.
  • MBK can secure 23.58%, but NPS’s involvement is pivotal. If neutral, MBK aims for 19.55%, below the minimum. MBK proceeds with a revised offering price, anticipating NPS participation.
  • Though the FSS investigation may favor MBK, a successful tender offer depends on achieving 87% participation. The higher-than-expected likelihood of success hints at a strong upward stock adjustment from Monday.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.
  • Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. 

Adbri (ABC AU) Warms To CRH/Barro’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Construction play Adbri (ABC AU) has entered into a process and exclusivity deed with CRH (CRH US) and 42.7%-shareholder Raymond Barro (Chairman) in order to progress to a firm transaction.
  • CRH/Barro’s non-binding indicative proposal of $3.20/share (in cash), by way of a Scheme, is a 41% premium to last close. The proposal is best & final. 
  • Subject to DD being carried out by CRH, this looks done. 

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co
  • Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) – Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

By Brian Freitas

  • It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
  • The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
  • There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co

By David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) – Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

By Arun George

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 16
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One
  • Investigating Float Rate Issues of Ecopro Materials & Doosan Robotics for Global Index Feb Review
  • Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at HK$23.50
  • MBK Partners Raises Tender Offer Price of Hankook and Co to 24,000 Won

StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One

By David Blennerhassett

Investigating Float Rate Issues of Ecopro Materials & Doosan Robotics for Global Index Feb Review

By Sanghyun Park

  • With recent surges in EcoPro Materials and Doosan Robotics, it’s crucial for their potential inclusion in the February Global Index review. No other names approach the threshold.
  • Depending on classification, Ecopro Materials may get a free-float rate from 15% to 20%, while Doosan Robotics may receive a rate from 20% to 30%.
  • With max free-float rates (20% and 30%), both meet Cutoffs. At minimum rates, Doosan Robotics needs over a 20% increase, while Ecopro Materials slightly exceeds Cutoffs.

Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at HK$23.50

By Arun George

  • Vinda International (3331 HK) has announced a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Sukanto Tanoto at HK$23.50 per scheme share, a 7.8% premium to the undisturbed price (26 April). 
  • The pre-condition relates to China SAMR and Japan Fair Trade Commission approval. The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights.
  • Irrevocables ensure the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition but also rule out a competing proposal. The timing of China SAMR approval is the key risk. 

MBK Partners Raises Tender Offer Price of Hankook and Co to 24,000 Won

By Douglas Kim

  • After market close on 15 December, MBK Partners raised the tender offer price of Hankook & Company by 20% to 24,000 won, which is now 51.4% higher than current price. 
  • With Cho Yang-Rae’s recent acquisition of shares, Cho Hyun-beom, Cho Yang-rae, and related parties now own about 45.6% of Hankook & Co, up from 42.9% previously. 
  • MBK Partners has requested an official investigation by the FSS, claiming that Cho Yang-rae and HY have violated the Capital Markets Act by recently purchasing shares of Hankook & Co.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 15
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover:  Initial Break/Gap Risk Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover:  Initial Break/Gap Risk Analysis
  • Whitebox Goes Activist on Samsung C&T
  • Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto’s Firm Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Mar 24: Four High-Impact Changes Likely; Some Interesting Trade Ideas
  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected
  • Volpara Health/Lunit: Bosom Buddies
  • Volpara Health (VHT AU): Lunit’s Binding A$1.15 Offer
  • EQD | ULTRAOVERBOUGHT APAC Markets, SHORT Targets

Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover:  Initial Break/Gap Risk Analysis

By Travis Lundy

  • The JIC Deal for Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) has been announced and is, as expected, trading wide. 
  • There is FUD. There are Flows. Just like JSR (4185). Some of that FUD can be explained by “gap risk” on deal break…. or can it? We look at risks.
  • There’s more positioning risk than fundamental risk at this point. And the FUD and Flows have specific timing in this case which makes thing different than JSR. Worth thinking about.

Whitebox Goes Activist on Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 December, it was reported that US based Whitebox Advisors has started an activist campaign on Samsung C&T (028260 KS).
  • Whitebox estimates that Samsung C&T’s stock price is about 68% undervalued compared to its NAV.
  • In addition to Whitebox, there are two other foreign investors including Palliser Capital and City of London Investment Management that have requested Samsung C&T to improve corporate governance.

Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto’s Firm Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27 April, personal hygiene play Vinda International (3331 HK) announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.
  • That spurred, allegedly, a variety of suitors including Brazil’s Suzano, the world’s largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, DCP Capital, and Indonesia’s Tanoto family.
  • And the Tanoto’s have now emerged with a HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer. The key risk is PRC regulatory approval . Elsewhere, this is a done deal. 

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Mar 24: Four High-Impact Changes Likely; Some Interesting Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • There could be up to four index changes. Some of these are high-conviction changes and some are low-conviction changes.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected

By Arun George

  • The Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board has opposed YFO’s potential tender offer price of JPY1,255 per share but has kept the door open for an improved offer. 
  • YFO is running out of options as a YFO candidate-heavy special committee opposed its proposal, and the share price is trading through terms. 
  • YFO has three options: a hostile offer at an unchanged price, an improved price, or exit its position. Each option has issues suggesting a lack of short-term share price support.  

Volpara Health/Lunit: Bosom Buddies

By David Blennerhassett

  • Volpara Health  (VHT AU), which makes software enabling the early detection of breast cancer, has announced it has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with South Korea’s Lunit (328130 KS).
  • Lunit is offering Volpara shareholders A$1.15/share, in cash, a 47.4% premium to last close. Cornerstone investors with 25.92% of shares out are supportive. As is Volpara’s board.
  • The Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 2Q24. The transaction requires NZ’s OIO approval.

Volpara Health (VHT AU): Lunit’s Binding A$1.15 Offer

By Arun George

  • Volpara Health Technologies (VHT AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Lunit (328130 KS) at A$1.15 per share, a 48.4% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.775 (13 December).
  • The offer is subject to several conditions, such as shareholder and OIO approval. Irrevocables and directors represent 33.30% of outstanding shares. 
  • Barring a competing offer, this is a done deal, as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for the end of May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.0%/11.6%.

EQD | ULTRAOVERBOUGHT APAC Markets, SHORT Targets

By Nico Rosti

  • 3 main APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200 and ASX200) are very OVERBOUGHT.
  • A WEEKLY pullback (1 week down) is expected this coming week, or the next.
  • The pullback should be short-lived and last just 1 week, then the rally should resume.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: JIC Deal For Shinko Electric Is LIGHT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JIC Deal For Shinko Electric Is LIGHT, and There’s Room To Complain, But Will Trade Wide
  • NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade
  • Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback – It’s Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Merger Agreement Leaves the Door Ajar for a Higher Recco Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: 109 Flow Names; US$2.3bn One-Way
  • Toyota Cross-Shareholding – To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1bn+ Index Flows Possible
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Early Preview; US$863mn One-Way Index Flows

JIC Deal For Shinko Electric Is LIGHT, and There’s Room To Complain, But Will Trade Wide

By Travis Lundy

  • 29 minutes after I published a long, musing piece on the possibilities of structure and announcement later this week, JIC and Shinko Electric announced 5 minutes before midnight.
  • A warning for the future: The Nikkei and every other media outlet got the number wrong. It is NOT a total acquisition cost of “around ¥800bn”. It is under ¥700bn. 
  • It IS a split deal. And if JIC won with that price, it tells you something about the state of the market and future deals in the space.

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
  • Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
  • Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.

Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback – It’s Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple

By Travis Lundy

  • Last month, Reuters reported that activist-ish investor Value Act Capital Management had bought a stake in Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) and separately in Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)). 
  • It was “revealed” in a letter to its clients. And there were reasons stated why Value Act thought Recruit was worth a lot more than it was trading for. 
  • Today, Recruit announced an on-market buyback for ¥200bn. That’s nice. But it is not enormous, and it may signal other info, and it is worth understanding details and context.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Merger Agreement Leaves the Door Ajar for a Higher Recco Offer

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that the Recco consortium is considering “a significantly higher” Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) offer than Ascendent’s US$26.50 binding offer.
  • The Hollysys 6-K filling outlines the closing conditions – a simple majority YES vote, regulatory approvals, minimum net cash (waivable) and a 10% maximum dissent condition (waivable).  
  • Recco is a committed suitor and will not easily give up. The merger agreement clauses point to a Recco offer floor of US$27.03 and a ceiling of US$30.48.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: 109 Flow Names; US$2.3bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in June 2024.
  • At present, I see 10 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Toyota Cross-Shareholding – To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

By Sumeet Singh

  • With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
  • Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer

By Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1bn+ Index Flows Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • There could be five changes for the SSE 50 index and 18 changes for the SSE 180 index in June 2024.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Early Preview; US$863mn One-Way Index Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs in the June 2024 index rebal event.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 13
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Benefit One (2412): M3 Extends For a Full Month and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Benefit One (2412): M3 Extends For a Full Month
  • JIC Consortium Possibly In Line to Win Shinko At “¥800bn”, Which Makes You Go 🤔…
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY5,920
  • CPMC (906 HK): SASAC Usurper?
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Possible Scenarios as ORG Mulls a Competing Offer
  • Hollysys Gives Ascendent Capital The Nod. Agnostic Shareholders Will Approve
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)
  • Identifying KOSPI Size Migration Candidates & Assessing Proactive Setup Feasibility
  • MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes
  • The Week Ahead: US Inflation, Fed, Quarterly Rebalancing

Benefit One (2412): M3 Extends For a Full Month

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) amended its Tender Offer Target Opinion Statement to note that Dai Ichi Life had made a proposal to acquire 100%.
  • To allow the Board time to evaluate this proposal, the Company requested a Tender extension. Bidder M3 Inc (2413 JP) was obliged to extend 10 days. They extended 20 days.
  • This tells us a bunch of things. It is worth thinking about what happened to get here.

JIC Consortium Possibly In Line to Win Shinko At “¥800bn”, Which Makes You Go 🤔…

By Travis Lundy

  • A Nikkei article today suggested that Fujitsu had granted preferential negotiating rights to buy Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) to a JIC-led consortium (including DNP and Mitsui Chem) for ~¥800bn.
  • This happened late in the afternoon session. Shares spiked 5+%, then were halted. A gray market ensued. 
  • A Bloomberg article provided more info, and the same info nuanced slightly differently. The wording in yet other articles was interesting enough that it is worth discussing. 

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY5,920

By Arun George

  • After months of speculation, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) has recommended the JIC alliance’s preconditional tender offer of JPY5,920 per share, an 18.9% premium to the undisturbed price (31 May). 
  • The pre-condition relates to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, Korea, and possibly Vietnam. The offeror may waive the pre-condition. The offer is long-dated and expected to start in August 2024.
  • The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33.3% minority acceptance rate. Despite the low 7.1% premium to the last close, the offer resulted from a competing bidding process. 

CPMC (906 HK): SASAC Usurper?

By David Blennerhassett

  • In what I viewed as one of the cleaner deals, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from SASAC and the National Council for Social Security Fund of China.
  • A decent premium to undisturbed, a low tendering threshold, and a large shareholder giving an irrevocable – this looked done. 
  • Now ORG Development Limited/ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH), holding 24.4% of shares out, is mulling a competing conditional general cash Offer. One of these Offers will get up.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Possible Scenarios as ORG Mulls a Competing Offer

By Arun George

  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK) disclosed that ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH), the second-largest shareholder, is considering a competing voluntary conditional general cash offer.
  • It is rare to bid against an SOE bidder. ORG likely has implicit SOE support to launch a competing offer due to the need for Chinese regulatory approvals. 
  • The possible scenarios suggest Mr Zhang Wei is the winning bid’s kingmaker. Mr Wei sold down 260K shares at HK$6.35 on 8 December, indicating a willingness to exit.

Hollysys Gives Ascendent Capital The Nod. Agnostic Shareholders Will Approve

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)‘s board persistent stonewalling was effectively terminated after the its court injunction was dismissed last month. An SGM will now take place sometime next month.  
  • A firm merger agreement was expected this month, and Hollysys announced yesterday Ascendent Capital has emerged as the preferred suitor with a (revised) US$26.50/share Offer. 
  • This looks to be (finally) all stitched up. Trading wide-ish to terms. Get involved. 

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

By Brian Freitas

Identifying KOSPI Size Migration Candidates & Assessing Proactive Setup Feasibility

By Sanghyun Park

  • EcoPro Materials and Doosan Robotics, recent IPOs, join the Large category. Their inclusion signals at least two Large stocks, CS Wind Corp and BGF Retail, shifting to Mid.
  • There’s a chance three Mid-stocks will transition to Large: Ssangyong Cement, Hyundai Electric, and LOTTE Corp. Conversely, LS Corp, Hotel Shilla, and Kepco E&C will move from Large to Mid.
  • With ample time left in the screening period, cautious monitoring is essential. Still, Large→Mid candidates, with a notable gap from the ₩2.95T cutoff, warrant a focus on proactive setups.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 15 December.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
  • The largest passive inflows will be in Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN). 

The Week Ahead: US Inflation, Fed, Quarterly Rebalancing

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • JSE indices get rebalanced in the closing auction on Thursday.
  • No constituent changes will be made to the ALSI, Top 40, Top 40 SWIX, FINI, FINDI or INDI. HAR will enter the RESI and AMS will fall out.
  • Largest buys: BTI, MNP, BHG, APN.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 12
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Denso Corp Placement – Quick Update – In Better Shape Now and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Denso Corp Placement – Quick Update – In Better Shape Now, Size Concern Remains
  • A Review of Tender Offers of Korean Companies in 2023
  • Exploring the Possibility of an LG Energy Solution Block Deal
  • Softbank (9984 JP): Adding a Strengthening JPY to the Mix
  • SIG/CWG Merger: Back Door Entry to the ASX200; Other Index Implications
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Chemist Warehouse’s Reverse Takeover
  • Costa Group (CGC AU): Wide Spread Ahead of the 30 January Vote
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Questionable Process Results in Ascendent’s Winning US$26.50 Bid
  • Costa Group’s Shareholder Vote Set. Get Involved
  • KKR/Smart Metering Systems: Agreed Cheap Offer

Denso Corp Placement – Quick Update – In Better Shape Now, Size Concern Remains

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around 9.4% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) in order to reduce its cross-shareholding.
  • The shares hadn’t corrected much till our last note on 7th Dec 2023, they have since corrected by 6% .
  • We have covered the deal background and deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the recent share price movement, as compared to prior deals.

A Review of Tender Offers of Korean Companies in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We review the major tender offers of Korean companies in 2023. Some of the major M&A tender offers that have closed this year include Osstem Implant and SM Entertainment.
  • Among the 15 companies targeted for tender offers, there are 5 companies including Osstem Implant, SM Entertainment, Lutronic Corp where the purpose of the tender offers is for M&A. 
  • There were a total of 18 companies that submitted tender offer results announcements in 2023 (as of 11 December), up 157% YoY.

Exploring the Possibility of an LG Energy Solution Block Deal

By Sanghyun Park

  • The prevailing sentiment in Yeouido signals a shift of companies, originally preparing for EB issuances, toward block deals. Local brokerages are competing to identify potential block deals involving major issuers.
  • The local market anticipates LG Chem opting for a short-term block deal, considering the potential reduction of the LG Energy stake below 80% to alleviate global minimum corporate tax burdens.
  • Timing is a challenge, but based on corrections before July’s EB issuance, we could proactively plan for January. Abundant liquidity in LG Energy’s futures eases trading instrument concerns.

Softbank (9984 JP): Adding a Strengthening JPY to the Mix

By Victor Galliano

  • In 1HFY23, a weak JPY – with it having depreciated from JPY132 to JPY149 to the USD – has actively supported the group’s valuation, contributing 12% to SoftBank group’s NAV
  • The BoJ is looking to tighten monetary policy, whilst all other major central banks are set to cut rates; under this scenario, it is likely for the JPY to strengthen
  • Softbank shares trade at a 51%+ stated NAV discount yet we believe that there is downside risk to at least Arm’s high valuations, which could tighten the discount significantly

SIG/CWG Merger: Back Door Entry to the ASX200; Other Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) has announced a potential merger with Chemist Warehouse Group (CWG) to create a leading healthcare wholesaler, distributor and retail pharmacy franchisor.
  • With a market cap of ~A$8.5bn and a free float market cap of ~A$4bn, the merged company will make the cut for inclusion in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
  • Inclusion in the S&P/ASX 100 Index looks just out of reach at the moment as does inclusion in some large global indices.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Chemist Warehouse’s Reverse Takeover

By David Blennerhassett

  • Privately-Held Chemist Warehouse’s (CWG) “transformational merger” with pharmaceutical wholesaler and franchisor Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) will result in CWG’s shareholders holding 85.75% of the merged company. 
  • CWG shareholders will receive A$700mn in cash plus new Sigma shares. Sigma will also undertake a $400mn equity raising to fund working capital needs.
  • Sigma has the backing of its largest shareholder HMC. The risk to completion pivots off ACCC approval. 

Costa Group (CGC AU): Wide Spread Ahead of the 30 January Vote

By Arun George

  • The Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) IE considers Paine Schwartz Partners’ A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its A$2.62-3.28 valuation range. 
  • The scheme requires China SAMR and European Commission approvals. SAMR approval poses a timing risk but the scheduling of the scheme meeting reflects PSP’s confidence in securing the approvals.
  • While not a knockout bid, the profit warning should help sway the retail vote in favour of the scheme. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.1%.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Questionable Process Results in Ascendent’s Winning US$26.50 Bid

By Arun George

  • Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) has agreed to be acquired by Ascendent Capital, the largest shareholder, for US$26.50, a 16.7% premium to the last close.   
  • The Board’s claims of realising the highest shareholder value are not credible. The Board fails to explain why Ascendent’s offer is superior to Recco’s, although both have the same value.
  • Deal fatigue (the process first started in December 2020) and the 42% premium to the undisturbed price suggests meeting the simple majority threshold for a statutory merger is achievable.

Costa Group’s Shareholder Vote Set. Get Involved

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 22 September, Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) backed Paine Schwartz Partners’ (PSP) revised (and reduced) A$3.20/share best and final Offer. 
  • Costa’s Scheme Meeting has now been tabled for the 30 December, with implementation expected on the 26 February. The IE is supportive and Costa’s board unanimously recommends the transaction.
  • This appears  done. Key conditions are Costa’s shareholder vote and SAMR approval. I can’t see SAMR getting into a bind over berries. 

KKR/Smart Metering Systems: Agreed Cheap Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • KKR takes advantage of a the depressed share price of Smart Metering Systems (SMS LN)  that operates a stable, cash generating and misunderstood defensive business with revenues linked to inflation.
  • KKR offers 955p (+8.31875p/share declared divi), a 40% premium 40%, 15x EV/24e EBITDA. 0.1% irrevocable undertakings is negligible (top ten shareholders own c.54%). A counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible.
  • Spread is 0.45%/1.52% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 29 March, including declared dividend). Turnover has been high since announcement. Risk/return seems attractive. Recommendation is long SMS LN.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)
  • MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes
  • MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell
  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Albermarle (ALB US) Finally Added
  • Merger Arb Mondays (11 Dec) – Benefit One, Outsourcing, Tokyo Rakutenchi, CPMC, Weiqiao Textile
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8Dec23); CNOOC & China Mobile Both Now To The Buy Side, Tencent Not
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, Again, Despite SOUTHBOUND Buying; Pharmas Weak
  • Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has recommended a Bain-backed preconditional MBO tender offer of JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December). 
  • The offer is light vs. peer and historical multiples and opportunistically takes advantage of the 20% price fall due to the disclosure of employment adjustment subsidies issues on 1 August. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 61.9% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance rate could prove challenging. The tender offer is to start by late January 2024. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names Visional (4194 JP) confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.
  • Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). 

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December, but there are float and capping changes for some stocks.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% and that leads to a one-way trade of US$122m.
  • There are 13 stocks with over US$5m to trade from passive trackers, though the impact is not very big on the stocks.

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

By Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Albermarle (ALB US) Finally Added

By Brian Freitas

  • Albemarle Corp (ALB US) will replace ioneer (INR AU) in the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 15 December.
  • Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover is 13.4% and in a one-way trade of US$50m.
  • The mainland China stocks in the index have been the biggest laggards and this rebalance will reduce their weight in the index significantly.

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Dec) – Benefit One, Outsourcing, Tokyo Rakutenchi, CPMC, Weiqiao Textile

By Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8Dec23); CNOOC & China Mobile Both Now To The Buy Side, Tencent Not

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a second or third week after weeks of momentum. 
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$11.2bn of INFLOWS on the week, a chunk of which was net buys on HK-listed ETFs, but Hs underperformed their A counterparts in the H/A pairs once again. 
  • High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)andChina Mobile (941 HK) seeing strong net buying as a percentage of volume. Tech was sold.  

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, Again, Despite SOUTHBOUND Buying; Pharmas Weak

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 70+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -66bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is down but it feels like liquidation.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were buys, and sells, respectively, but Hs have had two bad weeks in a row, and high premia A/H pairs have seen premia rise significantly.

Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.
  • It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. 
  • This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
  • Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
  • There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 10
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Perpetual, Weiqiao Textile,Tokyo Rakutenchi,Toyo, Chindata
  • Weekly Deals Digest (10 Dec) – CPMC, Weiqiao, Benefit One, Tokyo Rakutenchi, Eoflow, Rept Battero

Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
  • The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits. 
  • Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

By David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

By Brian Freitas

  • There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
  • There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
  • There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Perpetual, Weiqiao Textile,Tokyo Rakutenchi,Toyo, Chindata

By David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Dec) – CPMC, Weiqiao, Benefit One, Tokyo Rakutenchi, Eoflow, Rept Battero

By Arun George

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free