Event-Driven

I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) tilt for Azure Minerals (AZS AU); and another MBO for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).
Key updates took place for: Energy One Ltd (EOL AU), EOFflow (294090 KS) , and Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a “perfect storm”.
PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital’s straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency.

Lansen Pharma (503 HK): 27th November Scheme Vote

On the 17 September, specialty prescription drug manufacturer Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK), a perennial takeover target, finally announced an Offer.
Wu Zhen Tao, NED and Chairman of Lansen, made an Offer for shares not indirectly held, of HK$1.80/share, by way of a Scheme, a 26.76% premium to last close.
Composite Doc is now out. Court Meeting is the 27th November. Expected last day of trading is the 28 Nov. 28 December payment. IFA says fair and reasonable. Looks done.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KS200, KQ150, Yuanta Div+, LIT, HSCI, IDX, Japan Positioning

The coming week has a lot of review periods ending – KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE50, STAR50, ChiNext and SENSEX, among others.
The TOPIX rebalance will be implemented on Monday while the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT US) and IDX indices will rebalance at the close on Tuesday.
There were outflows from Emerging Market ETFs including iShares Emerging Markets (EEM), iShares Core Emerging Mar (IEMG), Schwab Emerging Markets Equi (SCHE) and IShares Edge Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV).

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Oct 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us
Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing
Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap
Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar

Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) gets a dramatic upweight in TOPIX on Monday 30 October. There is a LOT of stock to buy. Call it US$2.2bn.
Shares have to come from someplace. Basically it will all come from retail or from those who pre-positioned themselves in the stock (buying from retail). Some could come from short-sellers.
The stock WAS not cheap vs regional banks (what I see as their best set of comps) and the Q2 Unrealised Loss on Securities has ballooned. But care is needed.

Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing

L&F will likely be listed on the KOSPI in mid-December. The top reserved issue within the KOSDAQ 150 IT Sector will be added to the index via an ad-hoc change.
Selvas AI stands as the foremost candidate for the screened top reserved issue, with a mere two trading days remaining in the six-month screening period.
Given the relatively limited proactive position buildup due to more uncertainty regarding timing, the price impact leading up to the effective date might become even more significant.

Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap

Stellantis, a merger between France’s PSA with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAM BQ), is buying a 17% stake (14.53% fully diluted) in Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK).
Leapmotor will issue 194mn H shares at HK$43.8/share, a 19% premium to last close, in a HK$8.51bn transaction. Stellantis will also hold a 51% stake in newly formed JV.
Stellantis is paying a chunky 3.64x market cap-trailing-revenue; but ~2.25x forward revs, which compares to the average for key peers of 1.9x.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Golden Solar New Energy Technology Holdings (1121 HK).

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Oct 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected
Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure
Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play
Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares
Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank
What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday
Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY.
Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker).

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure

When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week “regarding a potential change of control transaction“, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present.
$3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won’t affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation.

Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play

The pivotal question now is the number of these companies that will effectively defer their year-end ex-dividend date to April next year.
The most reliable way to accurately confirm this would be to check how many of them will publicly announce the dividend reference date two weeks before the December year-end deadline.
This will serve as the most critical indicator in determining whether this year’s year-end flow trading event, the most significant in Korea, will recur.

Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares

On 26 October, it was announced that Ecopro Innovation is selling 160k shares of Ecopro BM shares (0.2% of outstanding shares), representing about 32 billion won.
Although the percentage of shares is small relative to its outstanding shares, this additional selling is likely to further negatively impact Ecopro BM’s shares in the near term.
Ecopro BM’s shares have seen a significant drop in price over the past few months, but its current P/E (87.3x in 2023) and EV/EBITDA (46.9x in 2023) multiples remain unattractive.

Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank

In this insight, we discuss the increasing probability of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) losing its controlling shareholding of KakaoBank (323410 KS).
The FSS Chairman Lee Bok-Hyun emphasized that the FSS may punish Kakao Corp for a potential stock manipulation of S.M.Entertainment amid the M&A tender offer process earlier this year.
At this point, the higher probability event appears to be a combination of fine and Kakao Corp selling at least 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank to another company.

What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer

Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share.
Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday

Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and Adaro Energy (ADRO) while buying Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO).
There will be passive trading to other stocks too, though the impact and flow is not material on most of the stocks.
Passive trackers will trade at the close on 31 October, so there are only 3 days to implementation of the changes.

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) at A$3.52 per share, a 44.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
To avoid a repeat of the Albemarle Corp (ALB US)/Liontown Resources (LTR AU) situation, if the scheme fails or is terminated, SQM will launch an off-market takeover offer at A$3.50.
Gina Rinehart is rumoured to have built a 14.5% stake, suggesting the final offer is an off-market takeover. The offer is conditional on FIRB approval.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.
According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.

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Oct 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Cosmo Energy (5021) – Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Cosmo Energy (5021) – Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill
EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Closing Date Extended to 3 January 2024
Medtronic’s M&A of Eoflow Timeline Postponed
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Tuhu Car in the Driver’s Seat; Keep Inc in the Running
EOFlow Situation: Latest Disclosure, Market Speculations, & Key Short-Term Focus
Azure (AZS AU): SQM The Likely Suitor
Hollysys (HOLI US): MBO Proposal and Updates
EOFlow/Medtronic: Signs of Life
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF Rebalance Preview: In-The-Money; Turnover & Trade Remain High
SIA Placement Lockup – Time for Another Trim of Its US$7bn Stake

Cosmo Energy (5021) – Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

Japanese activist Murakami-san and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill.
Cosmo’s efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san’s efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the doc (Japanese).
At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Closing Date Extended to 3 January 2024

The closing date of the Eoflow (294090 KS)/Medtronic Plc (MDT US) transaction has been extended from 25 October 2023 to 3 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.
The bull view is that despite the preliminary injunction and share suspension, Medtronic’s move underscores its commitment to the transaction on current terms.
The bear view is that the extension was Medtronic’s best move as it retains option value should Insulet’s lawsuit start floundering in court and KRX reinstate trading in Eoflow shares.

Medtronic’s M&A of Eoflow Timeline Postponed

On 25 October, Eoflow announced that the M&A of Eoflow by Medtronic has been postponed.
The closing date for Eoflow’s stock transfer agreement with Medtronic has now been changed to 3 January 2024.
Although we believe Medtronic will continue to pursue Eoflow, the M&A tender offer price could be lowered to about 26,000 won, which would be nearly 20% higher than current price.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Tuhu Car in the Driver’s Seat; Keep Inc in the Running

There were only 14 new listing on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the third quarter. Half of the listings were in the last week of September.
Of those stocks, only Tuhu Car (9690 HK) and Keep (3650 HK) have a chance of being added to the HSCI in December and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
Keep Inc (3650 HK) could be added to Stock Connect in early December while Tuhu Car (9690 HK) will have to wait till April for inclusion to the link.

EOFlow Situation: Latest Disclosure, Market Speculations, & Key Short-Term Focus

We must acknowledge that the acquisition contract has not been withdrawn, signifying that we have averted the worst-case scenario.
During the shareholders’ meeting on November 15th, it is crucial for us to pay attention to whether personnel from Medtronic are included in the list of new board candidates.
If that’s the case, we can infer that Medtronic intends to go through with this deal, regardless of the litigation issues in the United States.

Azure (AZS AU): SQM The Likely Suitor

Lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) went into a trading halt Monday (23 October) “regarding a potential change of control transaction“. That halt has been extended to Friday morning.
The obvious suitor is Sociedad Quimica y Minera de C (SQM/B CI) with 19.9%, who approached Azure with a $2.31/share Offer in August but was rejected.
Mark Creasy, a major shareholder in Azure and also a direct stakeholder in Azure’s flagship mine, is the key. Should a firm Offer unfold, expect a chunky premium.

Hollysys (HOLI US): MBO Proposal and Updates

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) update notes a new MBO proposal at US$25 per share, a bidders shortlist in several weeks and an update on the special meeting.
The update suggests several potential bidders and enough shareholders with the required record date to convene the special meeting to appoint independent directors.
The MBO proposal, while potentially a delaying tactic, suggests that the Board are under pressure for a solution and is aiming for a friendly takeover.

EOFlow/Medtronic: Signs of Life

When EOFlow (294090 KS) was suspended on the 11th October, and ceased global sales, either the Medtronic (MDT US) deal was (largely) toast; or it was a tactical move.
I’m firmly in the latter camp. Insulet‘s lawsuit was expected. And completing the transaction enables the more financially and legally resource-rich MDT to become the party to the litigation.
The SPA between Jesse Kim and MDT was expected to complete on 25 October. That was not a hard date. It has now been pushed out to 3 January 2024.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF Rebalance Preview: In-The-Money; Turnover & Trade Remain High

Using data from the close on 25 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 19.5% and a one-way trade of US$1.39bn.
A long adds/ short deletes trade is up double digits over the last three weeks and there are a few trade adjustments based on the new rankings.

SIA Placement Lockup – Time for Another Trim of Its US$7bn Stake

By Sumeet Singh

Temasek raised around US$300m via its secondary selldown in Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) in Jun 2023. The lockup from that placement will expire soon.
Temasek still owns over 50% of SIA and hence, any selldown might not come before SIA reports its 1H23/24 results in mid-Nov 2023.
In this note, we talk about the placement lockup dynamics.

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Oct 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$980m Trade and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$980m Trade
KOSPI200/KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalances: KRX Increases Opacity on Stock Selection
StubWorld: YTL Is Coming Up Cheap; Li Buys More PCCW
Frasers Hospitality – Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas for CDFHC and Far Eastern New Century
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 23: U-Ming Potential TDIV Deletion Is the Main Talking Point
In Play and Likely Worth More
EQD | The NIFTY Could Find WEEKLY Support Soon and Bounce

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$980m Trade

Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 8 adds and 9 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.
Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 22% and will result in a one-way trade of US$490m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 1x ADV.
The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in stocks today and over the next few days – especially where there is multiple days ADV.

KOSPI200/KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalances: KRX Increases Opacity on Stock Selection

KRX has amended the stock selection methodology for the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDQ150 INDEX and added ‘Expert Judgement’ as a criteria.
The qualitative and quantitative criteria and the detailed filtering standards will be described in the manual but will NOT be publicly disclosed.
There is no change from using full market cap to free float market cap in stock selection, so the stocks that could be added/deleted will be broadly same as forecasts.

StubWorld: YTL Is Coming Up Cheap; Li Buys More PCCW

Malaysian conglomerate YTL Corp Bhd (YTL MK) is coming up “cheap” versus YTL Power International (YTLP MK). And Richard Li chips away at PCCW Ltd (8 HK).
Preceding my comments on YTL and PCCW are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Frasers Hospitality – Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.
FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.
Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas for CDFHC and Far Eastern New Century

In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
I currently see 6 ADDs and 5 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
The estimate for one-way flow in December 2023 is US$1.37bn.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 23: U-Ming Potential TDIV Deletion Is the Main Talking Point

In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the December 2023 Rebalance.
While there are no changes expected for the T50 index there could be one change for the T100 index.
U Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606 TT) has moved closer to a potential T100 deletion which could also result in a TDIV deletion which has very significant flow implications.

In Play and Likely Worth More

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The current offer from Apollo of 65p/share undervalues the company. RTN ex-Leisure can achieve huge upside merely by executing the business plan. The shares have consistently traded above 65p.
Activist investors are piling on the register and there is a strong possibility that shareholders push for an offer sweetening (c.75p). RTN is in play, another PE bidder could interlope.
The bid is below mid-2021 highs of around 140p. Although a 34% premium is optically good, a conservative SOTP valuation provides a fair value estimate of 78.7p/share (8.7x EV/24eEBITDA).

EQD | The NIFTY Could Find WEEKLY Support Soon and Bounce

The NIFTY Index last week closed down (CC=-1) and it’s moving towards the Q2/median support at 19154.
The Index is not as oversold WEEKLY and MONTHLY as some of its other peers in the APAC group and is expected to rebound this week or the next.
Suggested support prices to go LONG are found in the 19154 to 18682 price area, the rebound should unfold in November and could last the entire month.

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Oct 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price
Celltrion Merger Swap Event: Trading Dynamics Post-Merger Approval
Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²
Merger Arb Mondays (23 Oct) – Eoflow, Celltrion Healthcare, JSR, Origin, Lithium Power, Poly Culture
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Sell Off Among Potential Inclusions as Momentum Fades
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: The Tail End
Understanding Kakao Bank’s Overhang Risk from Legal Consequences for Kakao Corp
EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming
Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!
Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 2023): BYD/Changan IN But BIGLY Net Selling

Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) saw its shareholder meeting vote through the Scheme, then on teh 18th, the Special Div went ex-.
Since then, as gold has rebounded sharply, Newmont Mining (NEM US) has underperformed peers and juniors (VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)) since gold has spiked.
Thursday is the last day of trading and there is a LOT of NEM to trade.

Celltrion Merger Swap Event: Trading Dynamics Post-Merger Approval

Celltrion Chairman Seo made a public statement, affirming that they are prepared to bear the entire cost, even if it exceeds the ₩1T ceiling, and proceed with the merger.
The relatively substantial cost risk associated with Celltrion Inc. due to the involvement of NPS is causing the merger swap spread to widen once more in comparison to Celltrion Healthcare.
If the prices persist above the appraisal rights exercise prices, the relative cost risk for Celltrion Inc. could escalate, leading to a significant widening of the swap spread.

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

The Somewhat-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Oct) – Eoflow, Celltrion Healthcare, JSR, Origin, Lithium Power, Poly Culture

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK), Lithium Power International (LPI AU).
Lowest spreads – Healius (HLS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Kenedix Retail REIT (3453 JP), Chindata Group (CD US).

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Sell Off Among Potential Inclusions as Momentum Fades

With the review period nearly complete, we see 15 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
There could be index changes even before the December rebalance if there are prolonged trading suspensions and stocks migrate from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
The potential adds have sold off hard over the last six weeks, similar to the performance at the June rebalance.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: The Tail End

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 7 changes to the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December. Couple of changes are low probability though.
The Materials sector could be the biggest gainer at the rebalance while nearly all deletions could come from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.15-15 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 1.7-8.1 days of ADV.

Understanding Kakao Bank’s Overhang Risk from Legal Consequences for Kakao Corp

Financial regulators will likely mandate Kakao Corp to divest all but 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank. The deadline is six months from the date of the order.
If this issue is resolved through the forced sale of the stake, it is anticipated that this stake volume will eventually be released into the market through block deals.
Kakao may proactively divest its Kakao Bank stake to transfer the majority shareholder position to KIS, regardless of the judicial outcome.

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

The Nikkei 225 (NKY) INDEX closed last week down at 31259.36. It’s currently trading between the Q2 and Q3 WEEKLY support levels and down for 4 months, so it’s OVERSOLD.
The index could reverse this week, or fall more into the end of October, but if this week closes down, the odds are very good for a rally in November.
Consider going LONG between here and supports in the 30600-30400 price area, a MONTHLY reversal could last at least 2-4 weeks (a month).

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!

This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw HKD 3.9bn+ of net buying. That makes 13 weeks of net inflows.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 2023): BYD/Changan IN But BIGLY Net Selling

This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The performance/spread/flow data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and 4 weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected/charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw RMB 24bn+ of net selling. Back to Bigly Selling!

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Oct 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks
EQD | KOSPI 200 Falling, LONG Support
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks

CyberAgent, Lixil Group, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, Welcia Holdings, Persol Holdings, Kurita Water Industries, GMO Payment Gateway, Keio Corp and NGK Insulators have underperformed the Nikkei225 over the recent past.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has increased on some stocks and there could be more pre-positioning to come over the next few weeks.

EQD | KOSPI 200 Falling, LONG Support

The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is going towards the Q2/median support at 314. The index is also OVERSOLD MONTHLY (CC=-3)
One possible scenario is to see the index downtrending into early/mid-November, find a bottom, and then begin a counter-rally from there.
The index could go down more this week, but a LONG trade could begin at 314 support, and if that does not hold, the next support area is at 306.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.
The Origin Energy (ORG AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.

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Oct 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank
Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Lithium Power, Vinda, Origin Energy, Liontown, Kenedix REITs
EQD | S&P/ASX200 Directionless or Downtrending?

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Light & Wonder (LNW US)/ Light & Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.
Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

If Descente Ltd (8114 JP) earnings disappoints, buy the dip. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying for the long-term.
MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM’s FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.
If you had a J-REIT portfolio, Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Lithium Power, Vinda, Origin Energy, Liontown, Kenedix REITs

I tally 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week:Lithium Power International (LPI AU)‘s Scheme. Vinda International (3331 HK) and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) are in the cross hairs.
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ) and Kenedix REITs.

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Directionless or Downtrending?

The S&P/ASX 200 INDEX last week closed down (CC=-1, breached the Q2 support at 6918, entering OVERSOLD territory).
The index has been directionless since early August 2021, it is going down but it’s OVERSOLD MONTHLY (3 months down), so it could bounce in November.
The current MRM pattern is quite bullish from a CC perspective: here we analyze WEEKLY supports to see how far down the index can go, it could bounce soon.

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Oct 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood
Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Delisting Offer

Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood

On the 27 April, Vinda (3331 HK) announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership. See Essity Mulls Holding In Vinda (3331 HK).
That shook a variety of suitors out of the woodwork (so to speak) including (reportedly) Brazil’s Suzano, the world’s largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, and DCP Capital.
The latest (alleged) interested party is the Tanoto family, currently holding a 7.03% stake, having first cleared 5% on the 26 September.

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Delisting Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The Delisting Agreement should end the Atlantic bidding for Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR) saga. Atlantic has been hoovering shares in the market since last 7 June.
Atlantic probably owns c.90.8%. Based on daily trading volumes, it would take many days to acquire shares and reach the 95% barrier required to implement a squeeze-out.
Spread is 0.3%/2.3% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 8 December), not too bad for a quick buck, but liquidity is razor thin.

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Oct 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Liontown Resources Placement – While Discount Is Wide and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Liontown Resources Placement – While Discount Is Wide, It Is at a Premium to Its Pre-Takeover Price
Another Hidden Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Is Captured in Korea: SOL Semicon ETF December Rebal
Golden Eagle Energy: Share Sale Done. MTO Price Bumped
ZJLD Lock-Up – KKR’s US$680m Stake to Be Unlocked, Although the PE Could Opt to Wait
Liontown Resources (LTR AU): State of Play
Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting
A Merger Share Swap Between Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo
Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others

Liontown Resources Placement – While Discount Is Wide, It Is at a Premium to Its Pre-Takeover Price

By Clarence Chu

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) is looking to raise A$365m (US$230m) for capital expenditure and to plug its funding gap for the Kathleen Valley Lithium (KVL) project.
Together, the combined A$1.14bn equity/debt raising comes after Albemarle abandoned its A$6.6bn (US$4.2bn) acquisition bid for Liontown Resources earlier in the week.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Another Hidden Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Is Captured in Korea: SOL Semicon ETF December Rebal

For the impending December rebalancing, the effective date is set for December 18th, while the ETF rebalancing trading will take place on December 15th.
Jusung Engineering and Eugene Technology are likely to be added, while Lake Materials and SFA Semicon are expected to exit the index.
Aside from constituent changes, Hansol Chemical is anticipated to significantly benefit from the passive impact as the primary beneficiary of the ceiling reversion.

Golden Eagle Energy: Share Sale Done. MTO Price Bumped

This transaction just keeps on giving. First, you received an additional dividend. Now the Offer price has been increased.
On the 26 July, Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) announced an intention to acquire a 58.65% stake in coal miner Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ) (GEE).
Geo shareholders approved the purchase on the October 13 and the acquisition was completed on the 18 October. This triggered an MTO, which has been revised upward to IDR 1,305.50.

ZJLD Lock-Up – KKR’s US$680m Stake to Be Unlocked, Although the PE Could Opt to Wait

By Clarence Chu

ZJLD Group (6979 HK) raised US$676m in its Hong Kong IPO in April 2023. Its six-month lockup will expire on 26th Oct 2023.
ZJLD is a Chinese liquor company producing baijiu. As per F&S, the firm ranked third among all baijiu companies with three or more aroma types in terms of FY21 sales.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): State of Play

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) resumes trading today after announcing a raise of up to A$1.18bn to fully fund the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project to first production and beyond.
The equity component is up to A$421m and the placement price of A$1.8/share is a 35.5% discount to the last close.
The placement price is higher than the stock price prior to the Albemarle Corp (ALB US) offer and during a period when its peers have performed poorly.

Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting

On 20th October, the ACCC cleared Brookfield to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU).
The transaction still needs shareholder approval and AustralianSuper with its too-big-to-ignore 13.68% stake reckons terms are below long-term value.
The Scheme Booklet is out with a 23 November Scheme Meeting. The IE backs out a fair value range of $8.45-$9.48/share, but as at June 30. A bump is imminent.

A Merger Share Swap Between Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo

On 19 October, Kolmar Korea announced that it will conduct a merger share swap with Yonwoo early next year to make it into a 100% wholly owned subsidiary.
We believe the merger share swap agreement between Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo is likely to have positive impact on both Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo.
After this share swap is completed, Yonwoo will be delisted. This merger is aimed at improving the inefficient governance structure caused by duplicate listings and improve management efficiency.

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others