Event-Driven

As discussed here in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).
That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.
Though we don’t know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future.

New Phase in Korean Short Selling: Immediate Impact of MM and LP Short Selling Ban

There is a prevailing sentiment in the local market that short selling by market makers (MM) and liquidity providers (LP) will effectively be prohibited very shortly.
The widening of the futures basis extends the influence of futures on the spot market prices. This is precisely where trading opportunities that we should be keenly observing may arise.
It also leads to a significant widening of ETF tracking errors due to the direct sell-off of underlying shares. We must capitalize on extreme spreads in ETFs.

EOFlow Craters. Medtronic Stays Mum

Five weeks after shares were suspended, EOFlow (294090 KS) shares resumed trading this morning, the 16 November. Wording is sparse on the resumption.
One small consolation was that EOFlow may benefit from the temporary ban on short selling. Irrespective, shares have declined ~27% at the open, as I type.
Elsewhere, Medtronic Plc (MDT US) provides no guidance. The only other news of note are the various court filings in the District Court of Massachusetts.

Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Offering – Some Index Demand But Needs Lots of Active Long-Onlies

Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) today announced a collection of 10 shareholders (mostly financial institutions) would sell a total of 33.48mm shares (6.6% of shares out) in Asahi Group.
This will become more of a thing going forward. Cross-holders “want” to unwind. And in many cases, the cross-held want to buy back stock (reduce E, raise ROE).
This deal is “good” in that it clears out a lot of the bank cross-holders in one fell swoop. But there are more crossholders behind.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key

Nine shareholders are looking to sell 33.48m shares of Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP). That is US$1.28bn, 24x ADV and 6.6% of shares outstanding.
Given the recent run up in the stock, there could be downside over the next couple of weeks ahead of the pricing date.
There will be buying from global trackers but nothing from TOPIX trackers, so not a lot of stock will be mopped up. Passive buying before settlement could create a squeeze.

Key Points We Should Know Regarding the Current Status of EOFlow

It can be considered that the suspension of EOFlow’s trading and, furthermore, the risk of delisting have been completely eliminated at this point.
EOFlow emphasizes the possibility of circumventing sales of EOPatch by supplying EOPump to a JV in China. The key factors that initially sparked Medtronic’s interest in EOFlow are still valid.
If CEO Kim fails to repay a stock collateral loan of ₩20B or secure additional loans, approximately 4% of the total issued shares could be sold in the market.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): US$1.3bn Secondary Placement

Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) announced a pure secondary offering of 33.5 million or 6.61% of outstanding shares. At the last close, the placement was worth JPY194 billion (US$1.3 billion).
Notwithstanding Asahi’s explanation, the selling shareholders’ motivation for exiting their shareholding is likely to capitalise on the strong share price performance – Asahi shares are up 45% YTD.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 28 November and 1 December (likely 28 November).

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: The Race For Europe’s Multi-Billion Dollar Index Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
This annual index review usually results in some of the most significant index flow events in Europe every year typically amounting to billions of dollars.
In this insight, we take an early look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2024.

Hong Kong CEO/Director Dealings (17 Nov): ENN’s Controlling Shareholder Buying; Li Buys More PCCW

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are ENN Energy (2688 HK), PCCW Ltd (8 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).

DXN Holdings Lock-Up – PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak

By Clarence Chu

DXN Holdings (DXN MK) was listed on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange on 19th May 2023. Both promoters and Gano Global (KV Asia Capital), will come off lockup soon.
DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
Demand for the IPO was lukewarm and the shares had a turbulent debut. Aside from its weak momentum, liquidity on the stock is weak as well.

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Nov 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Trading Suspension Lifted and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Trading Suspension Lifted, Now for the Hard Part
FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out
StubWorld: Pasona’s Expanding Cash Pile
Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact
Eoflow: Outlook After Trading Resumes on 16 November
Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again
Haitong International (665 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied
US Fed. Rtir’mt Thrift Board Changes Intl Benchmark, Excludes HK, US$1.6bn HK to Sell, $20bn 1-Way
Danaher/Abcam: Balanced Risk/Return
Aercap Secondary Offer: Overhang No More and It Is Cheap, BUY

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Trading Suspension Lifted, Now for the Hard Part

The KRX has completed its review and excluded Eoflow (294090 KS) from the substantive review for listing eligibility. Therefore, trading will resume tomorrow, 16 November.
The shares should rise on trading resumption as Medtronic’s tender remains in play, KRX’s review supported Eoflow’s business continuity and the short-selling ban-driven market rally.
Deal break risks remain significant. Medtronic Plc (MDT US)’s long-dated closing date and lack of Eoflow integration job postings suggest it remains concerned about near-term unfavourable court rulings.

FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out

The FRTIB has decided to switch its benchmark for the International Stock Index Investment Fund from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index.
With around US$68bn invested in the I Fund, this will set off churn among the constituent stocks in 2024. One-way trade is around US$28bn with DM outflows and EM inflows.
The benchmark shift could be done over a 4 month period with higher trading during periods where liquidity opportunities arise.

StubWorld: Pasona’s Expanding Cash Pile

A double dose of StubWorld this week as Pasona Group (2168 JP) finally takes the hint to sell (if not exit altogether) its holding in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
Preceding my comments on Pasona/Benefit One are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact

DCM Holdings (3050 JP) and Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed capital and business tie-up agreements 30+yrs ago. Recently, DCM bought Keiyo.
Aeon got some money from this and has decided to put that money back into DCM shares.
That changes both the current dynamics and future shareholder structure. And that leads to interesting questions about the outcome.

Eoflow: Outlook After Trading Resumes on 16 November

On 15 November, the Korea Exchange announced that Eoflow (294090 KS) will start trading again on 16 November.
The fact that KRX has allowed Eoflow to trade again will be viewed positively by many investors. Plus, the recent temporary ban on short selling should also positively impact Eoflow.
We believe a higher probability event is for Medtronic to complete a tender offer of Eoflow sometime in 2Q 2024 at about 26,000 won.

Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again

Livent (LTHM US)‘s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector’s fundamental outlook remains strong.
And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds.
African-Focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder. Shares spiked 43% on the news.

Haitong International (665 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

The pre-condition relating to Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)’s privatisation offer from Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH) is satisfied. The offer is at HK$1.52 per share.
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and the headcount test. The high takeover premium facilitates approval.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for an estimated early February 2024 payment, the gross and annualised spread is 5.6% and 26.4%, respectively.

US Fed. Rtir’mt Thrift Board Changes Intl Benchmark, Excludes HK, US$1.6bn HK to Sell, $20bn 1-Way

The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board which manages the four major funds in the Thrift Savings Plan for US federal government employees will change benchmark for its International Fund
This was announced on 14 November. The transition will take place “in 2024.” It entails moving from MSCI EAFE to MSCI All Country World ex-USA ex-China ex-HongKong Investable Market Index.
The explanation: double the countries, lots more stocks, BUT CHINA! This means selling ~US$1.6bn of HK stocks but US$20bn of one-way flow in total (lots of Japan/UK/Europe to sell)

Danaher/Abcam: Balanced Risk/Return

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Shareholders of Cambridge (UK)-based Abcam (ABCM US) followed Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations and approved (>84%) the scheme resolutions at both the Court Meeting and the GM.
The $24/share cash offer represents 10x EV/Fwd Revenue, 25x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. Danaher Corp (DHR US) and Abcam have guided that the transaction is expected to close by mid-2024.
Spread is 3.21%/6.21% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 May). From the current levels, I see a balanced risk/reward.

Aercap Secondary Offer: Overhang No More and It Is Cheap, BUY

By Mohshin Aziz

General Electric intends to offload its entire shareholding via a secondary offer, a positive development as it removes the share overhang
Opportune time to own Aercap as aircraft is in high demand and supply chain disruptions mean limited supply over the medium-term, ensuring high lease rates and strong profits
BUY with target price of $81.45 (+21% UPSIDE) pegged to FY24 P/BV of 0.94x, Aercap is the best in the pack with superior net lease margin, finance cost, and ROE

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Nov 15

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics
I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie
Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea
Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer
CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Starting to Close the Gap
Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Albert Teo Family/Dymon Asia’s Unconditional S$0.60 Offer
KOSDAQ150 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals
Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer
Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics

Today after the close with Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) reporting earnings, M3 Inc (2413 JP) announced a Partial Tender Offer to buy 81.21-83.31mm shares of Benefit One at ¥1600/share.
That cleans out Pasona, which owns 81.21mm shares. Or does it… Shareholder structure dynamics and the problems they cause later bear some detailed examination.
This one is going to be a fun special sit.

I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie

Today, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) reported H1 earnings. Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) reported yesterday.
Mizuho raised full-year NP guidance by ~5%, passing the Street. SMFG raised its FY NP guidance 12.2%, also beating the Street. MUFG didn’t raise guidance but H1 saw 71% progress.
Today, SMFG raised its div, and both SMFG (¥150bn) and MUFG (¥400bn) announced buybacks. Cross-holding unwind progress is waaay lower than we’d like, but capital stronger as a result.

Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea

We can check this on KIND, KRX’s disclosure site. As an example, SK Inc. disclosed this information on July 26, two weeks before the dividend record date, August 10.
We can capture this information in English without the need for Korean. The disclosure title we must hunt is “Decision on Closure of Shareholder’s Registry (including Record Date) for Dividends.”
The critical aspect here is that we need to identify disclosures from companies that still use the year’s last trading day as the dividend base date.

Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer

Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) announced a partial tender offer from M3 Inc (2413 JP) at JPY1,600 per share, a 40.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The transaction facilitates Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s exit. The offer is for a minimum of 81.2 million shares (51.16% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 87.3 million shares (55.00%).
Irrevocables from Pasona represent a 51.16% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is light vs. historical multiples and share prices.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Starting to Close the Gap

With the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the index at the close on 8 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.66% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.36bn. There are 29 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
The potential deletes have outperformed the potential adds over the last 6 months though there has been a narrowing of the gap recently. Position for a further narrowing.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Albert Teo Family/Dymon Asia’s Unconditional S$0.60 Offer

Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from Dymon Asia and the Albert Teo Family at S$0.60 per share, a 30.4% premium to the last close price.
On 17 June, Amara received a written notification from Mr Albert Teo Hock Chuan (CEO) and Ms Susan Teo Geok Tin (Company Secretary) that they are mulling an offer.
The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and marginally below the ten-year high. Hitting the 90% compulsory acquisition threshold implies a minority acceptance rate of 79.3%.

KOSDAQ150 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals

This article discusses the potential inclusions and exclusions of KOSDAQ150 rebalance in December 2023 (especially those that are highlighted by the locals).
The potential inclusion candidates include Lunit, Shinsung Delta Tech, and JNTC. The eight potential inclusion candidates are up on average 122% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSDAQ in the same period.
Stocks that are expected to be excluded in the KOSDAQ150 index include Aju IB Investment, HFR, Danal, and Sangsangin.

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer

Back in mid-June, hotel and investment property play Amara Holdings (AMA SP) gained 38% over three consecutive days on news of a possible Offer from its controlling shareholders.
The Teo family controls ~51% of shares out. No price was mentioned. This development was discussed in Amara Holdings Gains On Possible Offer.
After shares were halted on the 10th November, Amara has now announced a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share, a chunky 53.8% to undisturbed and a lifetime high.

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023 but Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR) is not very far away from triggering a change.
Separately, I see two changes for the MDAX index and two changes for the SDAX index.

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Nov 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth
Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting
Shidax (4837) – Mgmt Lowers F’casts So Family Can MBO Minorities Cheap. Offensive Governance.
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December
Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders
StubWorld: Takara Trading “Rich” As Bio Cuts Forecast Earnings
KOSPI200 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals
KT&G: A New Shareholder Return Policy Worth 2.8 Trillion Won Over Next 3 Years
Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000

WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise up to HK$4.07bn (US$521m) in its IPO by selling 197.6m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$24.67bn (US$3.16bn).
WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and to Southbound Stock Connect in March.
Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion starting in September 2024.

Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth

This MBO by MBK is a strong premium because of a low recent price, but it pays a low P/FCF multiple for growth, and no synergies counted.
Yet another MBO where insiders and friends take advantage of structural inferiority of minority shareholders. Something Should Be Done.
What do Minority Shareholders in Japan Say When They Meet Death? “OK, Today it is then.” (with apologies to Game Of Thrones).

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting

Last week, Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) announced its rights offering on both its H-Shares and its A-Shares, previously mooted on 23 May, and the Circular on 26 June.
The company applied, got CSRC approval on 5 Nov, announced the issuance on 6 Nov, and shares went ex- on 10 November. It’s probably unneeded, but it’s there.
The stock is cheap. The company will boost its payout ratio. And it isn’t that “heavy” a deal. The Rights Trading Dynamics may be interesting.

Shidax (4837) – Mgmt Lowers F’casts So Family Can MBO Minorities Cheap. Offensive Governance.

Shidax had a Good Governance Moment last year. The stock is up 40-odd% since last year’s GGM, but now the Board, so good last year, has tripped up.
The family and main shareholder – part of last year’s GGM – have decided to bully the Board into accepting an MBO at the wrong price.
Management lowers forecasts without telling anyone. Bidders say “Synergies LaLaLa!” Board says “Ohh la la!” Nobody counts the synergies. Bidder buys at low multiple of newly lowered forecasts. Minorities Lose.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December

With the review period for the December rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) complete, there could be 13 changes for the index.
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.94% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.98bn. There are a lot of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
Over the last 6 months, the potential adds and potential deletes have tracked each other and underperformed the index. Positioning has led to outperformance in the last week.

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Bloomberg reported Asia Pulp & Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring Essity (ESSITYB SS)’s controlling Vinda International (3331 HK) stake at more than HK$20 per share.
Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.
Vinda’s recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.

StubWorld: Takara Trading “Rich” As Bio Cuts Forecast Earnings

On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is at a decade-plus high to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).
Preceding my comments on Takara are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

KOSPI200 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals

This article discusses the potential inclusions and exclusions of KOSPI200 rebalance inDecember 2023 (especially those that are highlighted by the locals).
Stocks that are expected to be added to the KOSPI200 index include Posco DX, HD Hyundai Electric, Sam-A Aluminum, TCC Steel, and Dentium.
Stocks that are expected to be excluded in the KOSPI200 index Include Zinus, Handsome, Cuckoo Homesys, Taekwang Industrial, and Hyundai Home Shopping.

KT&G: A New Shareholder Return Policy Worth 2.8 Trillion Won Over Next 3 Years

KT&G announced a new shareholder return policy worth 2.8 trillion won (including dividend payout of 1.8 trillion won and treasury shares purchase/cancellation of 1.0 trillion won) over next three years.
In addition, the company plans to cancel about 7.5% of the company’s existing treasury shares which represents about 142 billion won (1.2% of outstanding shares).
Although this 2.8 trillion won in shareholder return policy is large, the company could have announced even larger shareholder return policy, including cancellation of its entire treasury shares.

Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000

Japan Best Rescue System Co (2453 JP)/JBR has recommended an MBK Partners-backed MBO tender offer of JPY1,000 per share, a 53.8% premium to the undisturbed price (13 November).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 53.62% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.1% minority acceptance rate, which is helped by the significant premium.

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Nov 13

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting*** Stocks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting*** Stocks
KOSPI 200 December Rebalancing: Rule Change Clarifications & Possible Delay in Price Impact
IJTT (7315 JP): SPARX Group’s Tender Offer at JPY812
Weekly Deals Digest (12 Nov) – Eoflow, Benesse, Shidax, PS Mitsubishi, IRC, Hollysys, WuXi XDC
IJTT (7315 JP) – A Truly Offensive Takeover Price and Process To Buy Out Minorities at 0.46x Book
Oizumi Mfg (6618) Gets Takeout from Parent Ferrotec (6890) – Probably Cheap, Disappointing Process
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Nov 23): Back To Net Sales (Ping An, Eoptolink, Innolight)
A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Nov): Bad Week for H | A Across the Board Despite SB/NB Going “Right Way”
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys
STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting*** Stocks

Persol Holdings, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings, Welcia Holdings, GMO Payment Gateway, CyberAgent Inc, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, NGK Insulators, Lixil Group, Kurita Water Industries and Keio Corp have underperformed the Nikkei 225 recently.
The underperformance could lead to selling from global passive trackers and liquidity events on some of the stocks at month-end.
There has been an increase in short interest on most stocks over the last week as positioning for the liquidity event ramps up.

KOSPI 200 December Rebalancing: Rule Change Clarifications & Possible Delay in Price Impact

Although not explicitly outlined, it appears practical to interpret that we should filter out stocks that have entered a trading suspension among those receiving a WARNING designation.
The dynamics of KOSPI 200 flow trading have become notably tumultuous due to the abrupt short selling ban and additional liquidity halts imposed on market makers in the futures market.
The manifestation of price impact due to passive flows may be significantly delayed. So, we should prepare for this week’s announcement day setup targeting the delayed impact of passive flows.

IJTT (7315 JP): SPARX Group’s Tender Offer at JPY812

IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s offer of JPY812 per share, an 18.5% and 16.0% premium to the undisturbed (9 November) and last close price, respectively.
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 23.48% ownership ratio.
Despite the modest premium, the offer represents a high five-year share price. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 41.3% minority acceptance rate.

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Nov) – Eoflow, Benesse, Shidax, PS Mitsubishi, IRC, Hollysys, WuXi XDC

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS), WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK), Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK) IPOs
Event-Driven developments – Eoflow (294090 KS), Benesse Holdings (9783 JP), Shidax Corp (4837 JP), Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Irc Ltd (1029 HK).

IJTT (7315 JP) – A Truly Offensive Takeover Price and Process To Buy Out Minorities at 0.46x Book

A Fund named Mirai Creation Fund, investing in five “fields” “vital to the future” (“intelligent technologies”, robotics, hydrogen-economy, electrification, and “new materials”) will buy out casting/forging mainstay IJTT.
The look and feel of this fund screams “lead me to the future”, so of course, the buy-out is being done with 26% equity, 74% debt. Levered is good.
That’s to buy at 0.46x PBR. Equity check is 12% of net assets. The Board says “yes” because it will lead to “improvement of corporate value”. Unfortunately, not for shareholders.

Oizumi Mfg (6618) Gets Takeout from Parent Ferrotec (6890) – Probably Cheap, Disappointing Process

Ferrotec Corp (6890 JP) on Friday announced a takeover for subsidiary Ohizumi Mfg (6618 JP) on Friday. There will be synergies and growth and corporate value increase.
The takeover price is not overly high, and includes no measure of synergies – not even the DCF value of delisting the company (no listing/filing/IR/legal fees/costs).
I think this gets done. It is too closely held, there are few foreigners in it, and it’s not large enough for an activist to care.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Nov 23): Back To Net Sales (Ping An, Eoptolink, Innolight)

This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list – Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are still smaller.
Last week, NORTHBOUND returned to net OUTflow after the previous week saw the first net buy in 3mos. This week saw RMB 7.95bn of net NORTHBOUND selling.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Nov): Bad Week for H | A Across the Board Despite SB/NB Going “Right Way”

The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
HUGE underperformance of Hs vs As across the board. A horrible week and it is not clear why. I doubt it was the short-selling warning or increase in haircuts.
SOUTHBOUND was a net buy and NORTHBOUND a net sell and the largest net SB flows on H/A pairs were the high-div SOEs.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.
Tencent and three ETFs see the top net buys as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$18.4bn this past week. Energy and Telco net sales persist. And persist. And persist.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.
SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.

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Nov 12

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Benesse Holdings (9783 JP): EQT Backed Pre-Conditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY2 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Benesse Holdings (9783 JP): EQT Backed Pre-Conditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY2,600
Fujisoft Tender Offer for Listed Sub Cybernet (4312) – This Is Too Cheap
Vinx Corp (3784) TOB by Parent Fujisoft (9749) – A Bit Cheap, Impossible To Block
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral
Shidax Corporation (4837 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY800
Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea’s Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: CMIC, IRC, Allkem, Benesse, Southern Cross, EOFlow, Shidax
Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)
TIGER Battery Material ETF Rebal in December: Notable Changes in Constituent Screening
Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price

Benesse Holdings (9783 JP): EQT Backed Pre-Conditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY2,600

Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) has recommended an EQT-backed pre-conditional MBO offer of JPY2,600 per share, a 45.1% and 36.3% premium to the undisturbed price and last close, respectively.
The pre-conditions primarily relate to Japanese and Chinese approvals, which can be waived. Chinese SAMR approval should be forthcoming as education is not a geopolitical fraught sector.
The offer is long-dated and opens in early February 2024. While not a knockout bid, the offer is fair in the context of Benesse’s muted outlook.

Fujisoft Tender Offer for Listed Sub Cybernet (4312) – This Is Too Cheap

Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), as target of activist-ish investor 3D Investment Partners, launched a “Special Committee to Increase Corporate Value” in August 2022. They reported in Nov22 and Feb23.
They also reported in Aug23, mentioning the four listed subs and synergies. Last week, Fujisoft announced it was buying them all out.
Cybernet Systems Co (4312 JP) is one of the two larger ones. It is being done too cheaply. Waaay too cheaply. It would not be impossible to block.

Vinx Corp (3784) TOB by Parent Fujisoft (9749) – A Bit Cheap, Impossible To Block

Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), as target of activist-ish investor 3D Investment Partners, launched a “Special Committee to Increase Corporate Value” in August 2022. They reported in Nov22 and Feb23.
They also reported in Aug23, mentioning the four listed subs and synergies. Last week, Fujisoft announced it was buying them all out.
Vinx Corp (3784 JP) is one of the two larger ones. It is being done too cheaply, but it would be nigh impossible to block. A safe deal.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.
Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI post market close.
Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.

Shidax Corporation (4837 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY800

Shidax Corp (4837 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY800 per share, a 10.3% premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
After the settlement of the tender offer, Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) will acquire a 66.0% stake in the offeror by way of third-party allotment at the tender offer price.
Despite the skinny premium, the offer is just shy of the ten-year share price high. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 12.5% minority acceptance rate.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea’s Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get >50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand.
Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: CMIC, IRC, Allkem, Benesse, Southern Cross, EOFlow, Shidax

I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Shidax (4837 JP)‘s and CMIC (2309 JP)‘s low-balled Offers; Benesse (9783 JP)‘s MBO/EQT Offer; and IRC (1029 HK)‘s MBO MGO.
Key updates took place for: Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), EOFlow (294090 KS), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)

Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

Last week, as Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) reported earnings, Taisei Corp (1801 JP) announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement & Taiheiyo Cement stakes.
Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.
Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below.

TIGER Battery Material ETF Rebal in December: Notable Changes in Constituent Screening

Based on the latest closing prices, the potential INs/OUTs are as follows. INs: Soulbrain & Enchem / OUTs: Chunbo & Solus Advanced Materials
While the overall market liquidity constraints due to the short-selling ban could exacerbate the price impact on the rebalancing day, it may reduce the flexibility of our Long-Short setup strategies.
While Chunbo carries single-stock futures, its liquidity may not be sufficient. So, a more creative Long-Short approach is required, taking into account these factors.

Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price

Just before the close Friday, the Nikkei reported Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) would be the subject of an MBO in order to restructure the flagging private shinken-zemi business. And grow.
It turns out it is EQT and the Fukutake family at ¥2600/share – a 2-year high. Wow. It is also a ridiculously cheap price given the assets and money flows.
I expect this may get some people upset as the valuation methodology is dodgy and the artful (hehehe) Balance Sheet has some easter eggs, and spotted pumpkins… or something.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote
Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low
Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ “merger of equals” with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world’s fifth largest lithium producer.
Allkem’s Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem’s board unanimously recommends the transaction.
This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following.

Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low

13mos ago I wrote about Shidax Corp (4837 JP) which an interesting restructuring past and a refreshing governance outlook going forward in Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters.
The stock was up 25% in that period to yesterday. Today, a Nikkei article mid-day suggests the Shida family will launch an MBO. Stock popped. Earnings out after the close.
The article suggests a take-private MBO with Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) again supporting the deal. 30 minutes ago Shidax responded saying an offer was put forth at ¥800/share.

Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist

Yesterday, Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced Q2 earnings which were trifle light, and announced a sharp downward revision to full-year OP despite higher revs on weaker yen.
OP takes a hit because of expenses related to the shutdown of Veran Medical device sales (announced 6 Sep, “causing” a 2.4% share price fall the next day).
They also announced an ¥80bn buyback. That should be worth 3.0-3.5% of shares out, but overhang exists. The label is the label. The details are inside. They matter.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Nov 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected
Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip
P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer
Spotlight on Trading Prospects Arising from ETFs as Short Selling Workarounds in Korea
Cybernet Systems (4312 JP): Fuji Soft’s Tender Offer at JPY1,095
IRC Limited (1029 HK): Mandatory Conditional Offer from the Chairman
IRC (1029 HK): MBO’s MGO. Look Away …
KKR/Telecom Italia: Uncertainty Endures

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected

INCJ is selling the last of its stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This will remove the overhang but could lead to selling in the short-term.
Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last couple of years but valuations are in-line with the peer group (or slightly cheaper).
The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering, but the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) float increase will take quite a while.-

Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) has been under pressure to improve capital allocation after Value Act bought in 2022. In February 2023, Trend announced a weak sauce capital return policy.
They promised a 100% payout ratio with 70% div payout ratio. But with huge piles of cash and securities, it wasn’t going to be enough, and shareholder structure ALWAYS matters.
Here it meant Trend Micro was vulnerable to further attack. Today, Trend announced a HUGE capital return with buyback, and a special div and this will excite Nikkei 225 arbs.

P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer

Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)/PSMIC announced a partial tender offer for Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,010 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The partial offer is for a minimum of 20.4 million shares (42.94% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 23.8 million shares (50.20% ownership ratio).
Irrevocables represent a 42.94% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is attractive and represents a ten-year high. The tender offer runs from 10 November to 11 December.

Spotlight on Trading Prospects Arising from ETFs as Short Selling Workarounds in Korea

During the previous period of short-selling restrictions, a pattern was observed in which ETFs were utilized as a workaround for short-selling.
We should anticipate more substantial price impacts this time. Of particular significance is the possibility of utilizing not only the MSCI Korea ETF but also sector ETFs for similar purposes.
This calls for our attention to the possibility that this short-selling workaround could generate a significantly wider range of trading opportunities in the spot market compared to three years ago.

Cybernet Systems (4312 JP): Fuji Soft’s Tender Offer at JPY1,095

Cybernet Systems Co (4312 JP) has recommended Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,095 per share, a 31.8% premium to the undisturbed price (8 November).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 12.28% ownership ratio.
The offer price is attractive and marginally below the ten-year share price high. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 26.9% minority acceptance rate, which is doable.

IRC Limited (1029 HK): Mandatory Conditional Offer from the Chairman

Irc Ltd (1029 HK) has announced a mandatory conditional offer from Nikolai Levitskii (Chairman) at HK$0.118 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price (1 November).
The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights. The offeror currently represents 30.61% of outstanding shares.
The offer looks light vs long-term trading ranges. The minimum acceptance threshold implies a minority acceptance rate of 27.9% (36.8% if MIC Invest does not tender), which is not onerous.

IRC (1029 HK): MBO’s MGO. Look Away …

Nikolai Levitskii, Russian iron-ore play IRC Ltd (1029 HK)‘s chairman and largest shareholder, has acquired 4.72% of shares out, lifting his stake above 30%, triggering an MGO.
The Offer price of HK$0.118/share, a 32.58% to last close, is the same price paid for the stake increase.
The Offer is conditional on Levitskii holding more than 50% of shares out. His intention is to maintain IRC’s listing.

KKR/Telecom Italia: Uncertainty Endures

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

As a result of the deal with KKR, Telecom Italia SPA (TIT IM) projects a decrease in net debt of about €14 billion, bringing Net Debt/EBITDAaL from >4.5x to around 2.0x.
This should guarantee the survival of Telecom Italia, but Vivendi is ready to challenge the decision. Equity is volatile as net debt represents 3.7x the market cap. Debt looks more interesting.
TLIT 6.875 FEB-2028 with YTM 6.624, or TLIT 7.875 JUL-2028, with YTM 6.838, likely to profit from a rating upgrade. Savings shares are unlikely to receive a dividend until 2027.

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Nov 09

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?
Hollysys: Court Injunction Hearing Is Key
Alchip Technologies GDRs Early Look – Another Well Flagged GDR Issuance in the Pipeline
CMIC (2309 JP) – Huge Business Model Plan Appears to Hide Assets, Then an MBO. Ugh…
StubWorld: Digital Garage Looking “Cheap”. Melco’s Consensus-Missing Results
Southern Cross/ARN Media: Getting Cosy?
Momentum Trading Opportunities Among Top 50 Stocks in KOSDAQ With Highest Short Interest Ratios
ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.

Hollysys: Court Injunction Hearing Is Key

Talk about your never-ending story. I count at least seven non-binding Offers for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) since December 2020, three of which are still on the table.
The latest, at US$26/share, was pitched earlier this week from Ascendent Capital Partners; who along with Changli Wang, Hollysys’ founder, previously made an US$23/share Offer in August 2021.
However, all these Offers are largely moot until we get closure at the court injunction hearing. If that occurs. Separately, I had a solid discussion with Hollysys’ IR.

Alchip Technologies GDRs Early Look – Another Well Flagged GDR Issuance in the Pipeline

By Clarence Chu

Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) is looking to raise around US$375m in its upcoming global deposit receipts (GDRs) offering.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a very well flagged one, with a drawn out process of regulatory/approval loops the firm has to jump through up till issuance.
Based on its board’s approval to issue up to 4m new shares in its GDR offering, the deal is a relatively small one at just 5.4% of Alchip’s current mcap.

CMIC (2309 JP) – Huge Business Model Plan Appears to Hide Assets, Then an MBO. Ugh…

CMIC Holdings (2309 JP) decided to “change its business model” this past spring, transferring control of a consolidated JV and other subs to DNP.
The result changed the accounting, and the business model, capitalising future cashflow and net income in a “hidden” asset which may or may not be in the Financial Advisor’s valuation.
My read is this is being done too cheaply, and the price should be 30-60% higher. But, it would be tough to block this.

StubWorld: Digital Garage Looking “Cheap”. Melco’s Consensus-Missing Results

Digital Garage (4819 JP) is coming up “cheap” versus Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP); and Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading “rich” to Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US).
Preceding my comments on DG and Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Southern Cross/ARN Media: Getting Cosy?

Back on the 18 October, media play Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) announced a non-binding indicative proposal from ARN Media (A1N AU) and Anchorage.
SXL shareholders are being offered, by way of a Scheme, 0.83 ARN shares and A$0.296/share in cash. SXL considers the terms to be “complex, and highly conditional”.
Reportedly SXL has now signed a confidentiality agreement to gather more info on ARN, possibly leading to a firm deal.

Momentum Trading Opportunities Among Top 50 Stocks in KOSDAQ With Highest Short Interest Ratios

In this insight, we discuss near-term momentum trading opportunities among the top 50 stocks in KOSDAQ with highest short interest ratios.
We have identified 10 companies in KOSDAQ that have high short interest ratios, among the worst performing stocks YTD, but with strongest share price performance in the past three days.
These 10 stocks are up on average 10% in the past three trading days, outperforming KOSDAQ which is up 3.7% in the same period.

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

With the review period complete, we forecast 9 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
Some of the potential adds will also have passive flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index trackers at the same time as the ChiNext Index rebalance.
The potential adds have slipped a lot versus the potential deletes over the last few months as the National Team has tried to stabilise the market via ETF creations.

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Nov 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea’s Short-Selling Ban and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea’s Short-Selling Ban
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2023)
Sankyo (6417) – Second Go-Round for a BIG Buyback
Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well
Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Capital Joins the Fray
Momentum Trading Opportunities Among Top 50 Stocks in KOSPI With Highest Short Interest Ratios
CMIC Holdings (2309 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY2,650
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes; Hygon Stands Out
Telefonica/Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG: Offer for Minorities
EQD | The Hang Seng Index May Go Higher

Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea’s Short-Selling Ban

Given Korea’s blanket ban on short-selling, we should concentrate on the likelihood of these ADRs being significantly discounted compared to their underlying shares.
It should persist for an extended period, highlighting the importance of continuously monitoring ADR spreads over the next 2-3 months to seize the opportune entry timing.
Since all these carry single-stock futures, a flexible setup targeting this spread can be designed, ideally incorporating currency hedges.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Our main pre-event candidate CELSYS (3663 JP) has outperformed TOPIX by ~12.6% since 1 Sep (when it was highlighted) and 6 Nov 2023.
There are three TOPIX Inclusion events confirmed for the end of November and two other interesting pre-event names we are closely monitoring.

Sankyo (6417) – Second Go-Round for a BIG Buyback

Back in late September, Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced a 10mm share buyback along with a new dividend policy. Only 4.22mm shares showed up to sell.
The largest holder – Exec Chair Busujima-san – sold 2.22mm shares under his own name and his company’s name. Hikari Tsushin, which had been selling in the market, didn’t participate.
Now Sankyo has launched another 10mm share ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow (8 Nov) AM at ¥6,099/share. They may not complete. But they may continue buying later. They have oodles of cash.

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

I wrote Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down – Opportunity Abounds, Still last week mentioning the trends in guidance revisions.
Since then, five have reported H1. +20%, +53%, +23% vs guidance; +25.6%, and +28.2% vs Last Year. Eight more have added new guidance, weighted average H1 up 48%.
Four more report tomorrow, eight on Thurs, 43 on Friday. The Top 5 are all next Mon/Tues. Watch for comments about portfolio restructuring efforts in H2 as market yields rise.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Capital Joins the Fray

Ascendent Capital has made a non-binding proposal for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) at US$26.00 per share, a 4.0% premium to the MBO and Recco proposal of US$25.00 per share.
Ascendent has also become the largest shareholder by securing 13.69% of outstanding shares at an average price of A$20.84 per share. Ascendant is supportive of the special meeting request.
The Board has tried several delaying tactics, but the emergence of Ascendant ramps up the pressure on the Board to conduct a transparent sale process and address shareholder concerns.

Momentum Trading Opportunities Among Top 50 Stocks in KOSPI With Highest Short Interest Ratios

In this insight, we discuss near-term momentum trading opportunities among the top 50 stocks in KOSPI with highest short interest ratios.
Given the recent temporary ban on stock short selling in Korea, there is likely to be increased volatility in the stock market.
We have identified 10 companies in particular that have high short interest ratios, among the worst performing stocks YTD, but with strongest share price performance in the past two days.

CMIC Holdings (2309 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY2,650

CMIC Holdings (2309 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY2,650 per share, a 55.9% premium to the undisturbed price (7 November).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 41.29% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables to accept represent a 23.29% ownership ratio. While the offer is light vs. peer multiples, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 35.1% minority acceptance rate, which is doable.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes; Hygon Stands Out