Event-Driven

• Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
• The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
• Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!

• ENN Energy (2688 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers containing inside information of the Company.” 
• ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), also in a trading halt, is likely seeking to privatise ENN through a Cayman scheme. A high AGM minority participation necessitates an attractive offer.
• I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$66.50-85.01, with an average of HK$76.04, a 28% premium to the last close.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
• Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• On 19 March, POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced that it is selling its stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) worth nearly 468 billion won (US$320 million).
• POSCO Holdings’ sale of nearly US$320 million worth of Nippon Steel would be about 1.3% of its market cap. 
• POSCO Holdings’ sale of its stake in Nippon Steel is a positive move for POSCO Holdings as the company is continuing to execute its strategy of selling off non-core assets.

• The Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) Board has proposed introducing countermeasures to nudge Nidec Corp (6594 JP) to delay the start of the tender to 9 May. 
• The countermeasure was likely needed to facilitate a competing offer rather than force Nidec to provide the required information and delay the start (Nidec is still evaluating the request).
• Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. The Board claims that there is a sufficient probability of a competing proposal.

• Quess Corp Ltd (QUESS IN) is strategically demerging into 3 distinct segments, enabling focused strategies and boosting growth potential for each, paving the way for greater success and innovation.
• Previously, the high-margin Global Technology Solutions segment contributed 12% of revenue, but its potential was overlooked within the larger company. Now, with demerging, it gains specialized focus and proper valuation.
• The demerger gives investors the flexibility to choose between cash-generating, high-margin, or moderate-margin businesses, with the added option of a platform for job hunting, all backed by focused, specialized management.

• After being outbid for Karora Resources (KRR CN) and rebuffed by Westgold Resources (WGX AU), Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)has inked a merger with Spartan Resources (SPR AU).
• The cash scrip merger – with Ramelius shareholders holding 60.5% of MergeCo – combines operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.
• Spartan shareholder will receive A$0.25/share in cash and 0.6957 new Ramelius, or an implied price of A$1.78/share at the time of the merger, and a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP. 

• Late on the 17th, Proto Corp (4298 JP) released a filing to the TSE saying activist-ish investor and objector to the current MBO, Kaname Capital, had filed an injunction.
• The injunction suit against two directors says procedures were unfair and the decision violated the duty of due care. They ask the Court to rule the directors halt support and…
• …that the MBO actor YOKOYAMA Hiroichi not terminate the offer on 21 March 2025. Injunction filings against directors for Tender Offers are rare for a reason.

• EcoNaviSta (5585 JP) has a couple of interesting product lines and platforms. That makes it attractive, and scalable. Synergies to a big buyer are reasonably obvious.
• Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) is that big buyer, having decided to be interested last summer. I could imagine others could be interested too. The tech has uses.
• For the moment, it is a high EV/Revenue bid on an interesting small company. The chairman, cross-holders, directors, and a couple of financial institutions own 66+%. But…

• After SAFE gave the green light on the 19th Feb, I estimated only a week was required to secure the (strangely) outstanding internal guarantees. It took a frustrating three-and-a-half weeks.
• Nevertheless, all pre-cons are now done. Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)‘s Scheme Document is expected to be dispatched or before the 25th April. 
• Assuming the Scheme gets up – and it will – expect payment around the 20th June. This is done.

• OneConnect received a non-binding acquisition proposal from Ping An Group at $7.98/ADS, requiring 75% shareholder approval.
• Ping An acquired OneConnect’s virtual banking division for $119m and terminated its cloud services contract in 2024.
• The buyout is financially attractive for Ping An, acquiring OCFT at net cash levels, with a US$100m consideration.

• Blackstone (BX US) is investing INR 1,800 crore to acquire a 66% stake in Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN), marking its first big move into India’s residential real estate market.
• This deal signals rising institutional interest in India’s housing sector and sets the stage for a potential residential REIT, similar to Blackstone’s office REIT playbook.
• The residential segment, long seen as fragmented and informal, may now see valuation re-ratings, increased M&A activity, and formalization driven by global capital.

• On 17 March, Spartan Resources (SPR AU) entered a binding scheme with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). Spartan shareholders will receive A$0.25 cash + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share. 
• The scheme vote is low risk as Ramelius has secured irrevocable commitments from Tembo Capital, 1832 Asset Management, and Fourth Sail Capital (18.89% of outstanding shares). 
• The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is targeted for mid-July. 

• Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.
• The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.
• Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion could take place in August 2026.

• Coromandel International (CRIN IN),a key Murugappa Group company, acquired a 53% controlling stake in NACL Industries for INR 820Crs on March 12, 2025 at INR 76.70 per share.
• NACL Industries is a Hyderabad-based agrochemical firm with manufacturing units, a diverse product portfolio, and technical export capabilities, including a presence in contract manufacturing.
• With this merger at decent valuation, Murugappa group(which is known for efficient capital allocation) certainly make it more efficient and value accretive for their business. 

• Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) has acquired Allianz’s 26% stake in both insurance JVs for INR 24,180 crore, gaining full control of Bajaj Allianz Life and General Insurance.
• This unlocks platform-wide integration across lending, wealth, and insurance, setting Bajaj up as a full-stack financial services powerhouse with total strategic control.
• With valuations set and consolidation likely, India’s insurance sector enters a new era- where scale, tech, and single ownership will drive future leadership.

• Checkpoint Therapeutics is being acquired by Sun Pharma for $4.1/share plus a non-transferable CVR worth up to $0.70/share.
• The CVR payout depends on EU approval of Unloxcyt, with four scenarios based on approval timing and dosing schedule.
• Shareholder approval is likely due to FBIO’s control and Armistice Capital’s support, with a 66% premium over pre-announcement levels.

• A new Sing Tao Daily article on HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) claims that China Mobile (941 HK)’s offer is a stalemate, and a potential I Squared offer faces regulatory challenges. 
• The article is being unduly alarmist. The concerns raised on the China Mobile offer remain premature, and there remains a medium-to-high probability of a competing offer from I Squared. 
• Last Friday, MBK converted its vendor loan notes (VLN) into shares, which could signal that an I Squared competing offer is imminent. 

• Jay Lee flipping the switch signals Samsung’s pivot—no more playing defense, no more legal jitters. Market’s reading this as full send on the next phase.
• Near-Term, Samsung’s pushing hard—NVIDIA’s HBM qual tests are in focus. With NVIDIA’s event this week, traders are watching for bullish signals after earlier cautious moves.
• The real juice? Samsung might drop a bold value-up play and a no-nonsense shareholder message. The prime launchpad: AGM day, this Wednesday, 19th, 9 AM.

• Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” PAG, the controlling shareholder, likely aims to privatise Fengxiang. 
• The offer will likely be structured as a privatisation by merger by absorption requiring approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
• The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates a reasonable offer. An offer of HK$1.80-2.00 (a 21%—33% premium to the last close) could win over these shareholders’ backing.

• Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) has satisfied the precondition related to its privatisation offer for Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK). 
• The offer remains attractive despite the re-rating of peers since announcing the deal. The vote risk is low as the two shareholders holding blocking stakes will be supportive. 
• This is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a mid-June payment is 3.8%/13.0%. 

• After the death of Dongjin Semichem’s founder Lee on 25 February, the company has yet to reveal the details of the succession plan.
• There is a potential for a family feud between the two sons of founder Lee if indeed there was no will directing the late chairman Lee’s ownership of Dongjin Holdings.
• A potential family feud for the control of Dongjin Semichem could lead to a grab for shares by both the family members as well as the general investors.

• DN Solutions (298440 KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,573bn (US$1.08bn), valuing the company at KRW 5.66 trillion (US$3.9bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
• The highest probability of DN Solutions being added to the KOSPI200 Index is at the June 2026 rebalance. The stock needs to move 60% higher to be added in December 2025.
• Inclusion in global indices could commence in August/November and will depend on institutional investor lock-up schedules. Flows are small unless the stock moves higher and is included in bigger indices.

• Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) posted a 11% drop in FY24 underlying profit; but has promptly gained 9% since.
• Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
• The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article. 
• In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding. 

• Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
• The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
• Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

• China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news. 
• In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
• Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

• Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
• For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
• The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.
• The flows here are still striking. >25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.
• A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included. 

• The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. 
• A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. 
• My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.

• AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
• To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
• Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU).
• Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Proto Corp (4298 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU). 

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) to list on 19 March.
• Event-Driven developments: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP).

• On the 27th Feb 2025, online trading player SelfWealth Ltd (SWF AU entered into Scheme with Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava.
• Svava tabled a A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme, trumping Bell Financial (BFG AU)‘s A$0.25/share earlier bid. Svava also has a 18.83% stake.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd April. Expected implementation on the 7th May. The IE (Grant Thorton) says fair & reasonable.

• Nikkei Business reported Friday 14 March that Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP) (“DHFG”) were in talks to integrate to create a Super-Regional Bank
• Gunma and Daishi-Hokuetsu are part of the same multiple-regional bank alliances, including the Gunma-Daishi Hokuetsu Alliance since 2021, in order to collaborate regionally, build scale, and lower service provision cost.
• As Gunma and Daishi Hokuetsu serve adjacent jurisdictions, and they are already exploring sharing branches, this makes sense. The World with Interest (rates above zero) may cause more integration talk.

• I tally 58 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Three news new deals discussed this week: Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Tenma Corp (7958 JP), and Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP).
• Key updates/news took place on: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Silk Logistics (SLH AU), ESR Group (1821 HK), Proto Corp (4298 JP), and Japfa Ltd (JAP SP).

• An independent appraisal repot supports Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) unifying its dual-listed structure. Shareholders will get their say on the 3rd April. 
• Proto Corp (4298 JP)‘s MBO is the wrong price. The solution here is a really bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.
• CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)gives back some of the recent gains as pro-Beijing media said CK Hutch “should think twice about which side it wants to stand with”.

• Tenma Corp (7958 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer at JPY3,580 per share, a 37.1% premium to the last close of JPY2,611.
• Despite implying a P/B multiple of 0.89x, the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples and represents an all-time high. 
• An irrevocable from Dalton, the largest shareholder, lowers the risk of activist agitation. Given that the offer is reasonable, the required minority acceptance rate of 28.5% is attainable. 

• Plastic household goods maker Tenma Corp (7958 JP) has been “undervalued” for decades. A variety of activish/activist holders have come and gone. Dalton went substantial in 2016, is 18% now.
• The family has always controlled the company, and in the last decade, the company has bought back shares, raising the family stake. Now they are buying out minorities. 
• The deal is at 4.1x Adjusted EV/EBITDA for March 2026 (adjusted for securities sales, etc) and 0.82x book for the non-cash/securities portion of the business. But Dalton has thrown in.

• BMW plans to repurchase 10% of its share capital over five years, likely replacing the previous buy-back program to optimize capital efficiency.
• The share buy-back is expected to boost EPS and support stock prices, with a stronger impact on preferred shares due to lower liquidity.
• The Quandt family’s ownership stake could increase to approximately 54.36%, further solidifying their control over BMW.

• On 12 March 2025, a minor Twitter account @nanahoshiuk started in January announced a website shiftnissantokyo.com where they point out the value proposition in Nissan Tokyo Sales (8291 JP). 
• The writeup is by a UK company led by a young man with an equity-investing career, some experience at an activist shop, who now runs a “Shareholder Activism Outsourcing Service.”
• The content sounds familiar to my piece in December, has a few unpolished edges, but clearly points out the value proposition. The stock deserves a re-visit. My comments are below.

• On 13 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)’s management held its first press conference in Japan since it disclosed its Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) offer.
• The Couche-Tard charm offensive was designed to pressure the Board to engage and facilitate a definite agreement. The press conference provided incremental new information.
• The Board’s next move will likely provide limited due diligence, partly to avoid a protest vote at the May AGM. However, the prospect of a Board-recommended binding proposal remains low.

• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. 
• Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
• A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board’s case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser’s case is strong on post-unification share price, M&A, and franking credits.

• To avoid a political landmine, on the 4th March CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)  announced a deal with Blackrock to offload its entire port ops, including the contentious Panama ports.
• It’s an astute deal selling to a buyer, ostensibly backed by the Trump administration, at the top of the market, knowing global trade could fall under a new tariff regime.
• The risk to the transaction is one of timing. US/Panama approvals are a shoo-in. But it’s a complex deal, which will take time to work through the system.

• After the market close on 13 March, it was reported that SOQRI Co will be doing a partial tender offer public offering of 171,429 common shares of Socar.
• The tender offer period is from 14 March to 2 April. The tender offer price is 17,500 won which is a 21% premium to current price.
• Socar’s founder Lee Jae-Woong is pushing for a tender offer to solidify the control of Socar from Lotte Rental which has recently been purchased by Affinity Equity Partners.

• The street suspects NPS is fast-tracking its reference portfolio in local equities, not just rebalancing to cover last year’s underweight in its Q1 2025 adjustment.
• The passive-to-active shift is on—starting with enhanced passive, then an early ramp into event-driven and high-conviction active plays.
• We traders should expect outsized swings in leaders and restructuring plays as NPS flows amplify moves.

• Lee Bok-hyun, FSS Chairman, unexpectedly reversed his stance and now opposes Choi’s veto on the amendment, pushing for shareholder protection and adjustments in subordinate regs instead.
• From a short-term trading angle, traders will focus on stocks with high volatility potential related to auditor appointments rather than the extension of directors’ fiduciary duties to shareholders.
• Large-Cap banks and non-bank stocks, with low controlling stakes and high foreign ownership, are likely to see significant short-term trading impact.

• In this insight, we discuss a new catalyst on the share price of LS Corp (006260 KS) which is the purchase of its shares by the Hoban Group. 
• Hoban Group has recently purchased shares of LS Corp. Although the exact percentage of shares has yet to be made public, it is estimated to be less than 3%. 
• LS Corp could improve shareholder returns. Plus, the ongoing litigation between Taihan Electric Wire and LS Cable may be the real reason why Hoban decided to invest in LS Corp. 

• Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) is set to acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics for $355 million, enhancing its onco-dermatology portfolio with UNLOXCYT™, an FDA-approved treatment.
• This strategic move provides Sun Pharma with immediate access to the U.S. market and the potential for global expansion, especially in the PD-1 inhibitor space.
• The acquisition promises revenue growth and synergistic opportunities, although regulatory approvals and successful integration are crucial for realizing its full potential.

• The UK’s CMA cleared the Keysight-Spirent deal without a Phase 2 investigation, removing a major regulatory hurdle for the acquisition’s completion.
• If the acquisition is not finalized by June 30, 2025, Spirent shareholders will receive an additional 1p per share, compensating for the delay.
• With a 7% gross spread and an 89% probability of completion, market confidence in the acquisition remains strong, supported by shareholder approval and regulatory progress.

• Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
• Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
• Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

• The MBO for Proto Corp (4298 JP) where the founder/chair is buying out from minorities is being done at the wrong price. His reasons are good, but not for minorities.
• One large foreign shareholder – the second largest shareholder of the firm – has offered substantial pushback in the form of a letter asking for discussions. That went nowhere.
• So now they have come out harder. The solution here is a really big bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.

• At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
• Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
• If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

• In a long-form merger for Cayman incorporated companies, dissenters can petition the Grand Court for determination of fair value. For short form merges, that avenue of dissent was not available. 
• But on the 28 January 2021, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a ‘short-form’ merger were entitled to dissent.
• Changyou.com (CYOU US) appealed this decision in the Court of Appeal, and was dismissed. Then appealed to the Privy Council. In a judgement handed down yesterday, this was also dismissed. 

• In this insight, we discuss how the Homeplus debacle is causing a major negative sentiment on MBK Partners from both the Korean government and the media.
• This negative sentiment has grown so much that it could have a legitimate negative impact in the upcoming proxy vote for the control of Korea Zinc. 
• The Korean government has targeted MBK for tax probe. Plus, a coalition of securities firms is expected to file a lawsuit against Homeplus and MBK. 

• ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
• On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
• Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%

• Back on the 11th November 2024, Silk Logistics (SLH AU) entered into an Offer by way of a Scheme with Dubai-based DP World, Australia’s biggest ports operator.
• DP World offered A$2.14/share (less any dividends), a 45.6% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Silk’s board, and co-founders (holding ~46% of the shares out).
• This looked all stitched up. Potentially a delay for ACCC/FIRB, but it felt like one that should get approved. But the ACCC has now detailed a comprehensive list of concerns.

• Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia. 
• On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
• This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

• Kakao Corp (035720 KS) has two near-term positive catalysts. First is treasury shares cancellation. Second is insiders buying of its shares.
• These moves suggest the management’s confidence in the company’s outlook ahead of the AGM on 26 March. 
• In our view, one of the major reasons why the insiders are buying could be due to Kakao’s collaboration with OpenAI. 

• WEX launched a $750m tender offer to repurchase ~12% of shares at $148-$170/share, prioritizing odd lots.
• Impactive Capital increased its stake in WEX from 5.6% to 6.7%, purchasing at $154.75/share average.
• WEX is highly leveraged with net debt at 5x EBITDA, despite slowing growth and weak guidance.

• On 10 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) issued a release “UPDATE ON PROPOSAL FOR A COMBINATION WITH SEVEN & i“.
• They felt obliged to be transparent in the wake of the 7&i Letter To Shareholders released yesterday. The content/nuance of the two letters differ significantly. 
• Two parties competing to get a truth which cannot be both could be problematic. We are still many months away from any kind of ACT/7-11 deal.

• When the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm offer on the 4th December, it was pre-conditional on a raft of regulatory approvals from no less than eight countries/jurisdictions. 
• We’re half way there, with four approvals now squared away, leaving Australia, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand still to give the go ahead. 
• Irrevocables comprising 34.26% of the register (and 57.01% of disinterested shares) are now in the bag. This is a done deal. It’s just a question of timing.

• In late November of 2024, Baudroie (4413 JP) announced it would try to move to TSE Prime and that day they announced a 2.76mm share secondary offering and a buyback.
• The buyback was a bit less than a quarter of the offering. Fast forward 3mos and in early March the company announced it would move to Prime. Yesterday it did.
• That puts the company in line for a TOPIX inclusion in end-April , and likely other index effects later. In the meantime, earnings and guidance are out ~10 April. 

• Local instos borrow from brokers or peers, KSD collects and cleans the data, then KOFIA reports stock borrow balances daily with a two-day lag.
• Offshore borrows via EquiLend or PB deals don’t show up—KSD reporting only covers local institution-to-institution stock loans.
• Assume 60% of reported borrow balance is real shortable ammo—adjusting for this helps filter out noise in short positioning.

• Oryx Global Partners teams up with former Kenmare Resources MD Michael Carville for takeover bid
• Kenmare Resources operates moma titanium mine in Mozambique, one of the world’s largest producers
• Weak mineral sands market and political upheaval in Mozambique impact company’s operations and valuation, leading to potential takeover bid

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
• The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

• Back on the 2nd Dec 2024, De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold projects, announced a merger with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
• Northern Star offered 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity upon a successful Scheme, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 16th April. Expected implementation on the 5th May. The IE (KPMG) says fair & reasonable.

• On Thursday 6 March we got a Nikkei article then a company announcement for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s proposed management measures and update on ACT Bid Process.  
• It involved Isaka-san stepping down, Stephen Dacus stepping up, selling York to Bain for ¥814.7bn, IPOing 7-Eleven US, a ¥2trln share buyback over 5yrs, and ACT process update. 
• It was OK. Good, bad, and ugly. But Artisan wrote a letter over the weekend and 7&i responded and suddenly, their concerns are mostly addressed and the outlook is different.

• The Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) Board has released a public letter to address Artisan Partners’ letter and provide more details on the Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) constructive engagement. 
• The letter effectively addresses most of Artisan’s concerns. The Board is engaging with Couche-Tard, particularly by agreeing on a strategy to find a solution to secure antitrust approvals. 
• However, the statement suggests that the Board retains deep scepticism that the Couche-Tard is viable and is manoeuvring to shift the blame on a failed bid on a flawed proposal. 

• Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) has disclosed that it has received initial letters of intent from multiple third parties, reportedly private equity funds, to launch a competing tender offer.
• My analysis suggests that a white knight bid could be as high as JPY13,284, 20.8% higher than Nidec’s JPY11,000 offer and 10.2% higher than the last close price of JPY12,050.
• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) will take a wait-and-see approach. However, regardless of whether a white knight bidder emerges, Nidec will eventually have to bump.

• On 10 March, Young Poong (000670 KS) announced that it plans to cancel all of its treasury shares and conduct a 10-to-1 stock split.
• Driven by the treasury shares cancellation and stock split, Young Poong’s share price rose 8.9% to 489,000 won today (10 March 2025). 
• Our updated NAV of Young Poong suggests NAV per share of 834,064 per share, representing a 71% upside from current levels.

• On 7 March, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.
• The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00. 
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.

• Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) (SPIL) announced the plan to acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics (CKPT US), a commercial stage immunotherapy and targeted oncology company, for ~$200M.
• In December, Checkpoint has received FDA approval for its maiden drug, Unloxcyt (cosibelimab), for the treatment of certain type of skin cancer. Unloxcyt has peak sales estimate of $1.6B.
• SPIL’s offer for Checkpoint seems compelling and provides superior risk-adjusted value. However, the acquisition will not be near-term value generator for SPIL, which doesn’t have good track record for acquisition.

• I’m closing out my Kenvue (KVUE) recommendation and will be selling my shares.

• Following the spin-off from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), KVUE shares performed poorly for a variety of reasons (lockluster growth, Tylenol related litigation, etc.) that I thought were overblown.

• At the time, Kenvue was trading at a sharp discount to its consumer health care peers. Today, Kenvue trades at a slight discount to peers (21 P/E vs. 23.3x for the group).