Energy & Materials Sector

• De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Resources ETF (MVR AU) in December.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.4% and in a round-trip trade of A$63m.
• De Grey Mining will be acquired by Northern Star Resources in the first half of 2025. The passive buying could push De Grey Mining higher in the short-term.

• No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.

• The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.

• Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)’s IFA opines that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK)’s HK$0.85 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 January. 
• Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
• The Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers, which hold a blocking stake, should support the transaction. At the last close and for the 6 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/22.2%.

• Back on the 28th October, SOE Beijing Capital Group launched an Offer by way of a Scheme for Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) (BCG), a commercial property developer in China.
• The Cancellation Price of HK$0.85/Share (best & final) was a 46.55% premium to undisturbed. Irrevocables were secured from 8.13% of the 37.92% held by disinterested shareholders. This looked done. 
• The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting to be held on the 10th Jan. Expected payment on or before the 6th Feb. IFA says fair & reasonable.

• China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
• Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
• We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 

• My conversation with the FA earlier this week largely put to rest a number of concerns, specifically on regulatory approvals, surrounding the Offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK). 
• As announced on the 13th December, the last pre-condition, SAFE, has been satisfied. All pre-cons have been fulfilled.  The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or before the 20th December
• This could turn unconditional before year-end, depending on whether Zhang Wei promptly tenders. Expect the share price to trade tight (er) to terms Monday morning.

• The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, Sino Biopharmaceutical are the “main force” and their performance would be affected.
• WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.
• Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf’s Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.

• Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) while Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) will be deleted from the index.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of US$37m.
• The largest inflows will be in Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) and Tronox Holdings (TROX US). 

• Cheniere Energy reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting solid business performance and opportunities as well as challenges within the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.
• The company highlighted key accomplishments, including robust financial metrics, increased guidance for the year, and advancements in their long-term projects.
• Cheniere generated approximately $1.5 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, with distributable cash flow at around $820 million and net income at approximately $900 million for the third quarter.

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial performance demonstrates a strong positioning within the midstream sector, bolstered by strategic acquisitions and expanding operations.
• Adjusted EBITDA stood at approximately $1.019 billion, reflecting consistency with the previous year despite market headwinds.
• Additionally, the company’s adjusted cash flow from operations totaled $724 million, or $1.25 per share.

• ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has received SAFE approval. Therefore, the precondition is satisfied. 
• The offer and response document will be despatched by 20 December and 3 January 2025, respectively. The Board will recommend the offer. 
• The offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and late-January 2025 payment, the gross/annualized spread was 7.3%/88.0%.

• OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive time this year. It lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecast 11.5% and 5.8%, respectively.
• The EIA and IEA lowered their 2024 demand projections by 10.1% and 8.7%, respectively. However, they raised their 2025 projections by 5.7% and 11.1%, respectively.
• The EIA reduced 2024 and 2025 price forecasts for WTI and Brent, citing higher non-OPEC+ production and subdued demand, which are expected to drive global inventory builds after Q1 2025.

• For the week ending 06/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 1.4m barrels, beating expectations of a 1m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected again.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 190 Bcf for the week ending 06/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 175 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• Wells Fargo raised its 12-month PT for Chevron but lowered targets for Shell and Occidental. Exxon targets a CAGR of 10% in earnings and 8% in cash flow through 2030.

• 79% of ELTs consumed by end-use markets, up 10.5%
• Tire-derived fuel tops ELT use, followed by ground rubber
• Sumitomo Rubber USA announces closing of Buffalo plant

• OCI undergoing solvent liquidation process, sparking interest in updating story and economics
• Focus on latest updates on OCI and PF capital structure, equity thesis, credit thesis
• Multiple disposal transactions in past 10 months, including sale of businesses and retaining European nitrogen business

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In the US, initial jobless claims increased to a two-month-high of 242 k (220 k e / 225 k p), likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
• The PPI (final demand) came in at 3.0% y-o-y in November (2.6% e / 2.6% p), while core PPI (final demand) stood at 3.4% (3.2% e / 3.4% p).
• US Treasuries were sold off for the second consecutive day, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps across the curve.

• Ocean Power Technologies has secured a new partnership in Latin America with $3 million in purchase order commitments over three years.
• This new agreement adds to a previous $1.5 million order, bringing the total to $4.5 million.
• The partnership will involve the deployment of OPT’s WAM-V unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) for hydrographic applications and other diverse tasks.

• The Mopane-2A appraisal well (the 4th well to be drilled at Mopane) has been spud.
• The purpose of the well is to appraise the AVO-3 that had been discovered at Mopane-2X located ~8km to the northeast.
• This appraisal well has been prioritized following the Mopane-1A success.

• Paper manufacturer Oji Holdings (3861 JP) has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn’t exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.
• But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. 
• The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.

• Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported third quarter earnings per share of $1.87 with a refining utilization rate of 94%.
• The company continues to deliver solid performance in its refining and marketing (R&M) segment, boasting a 96% capture rate, a 2% improvement quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong commercial performance.
• The refining operating costs were at $5.30 per barrel, a slight increase primarily due to decreased throughputs and higher project expenses linked to intensified turnaround activity.

• International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) exhibited robust financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, showcasing a significant upward trend across its business units.
• IFF achieved a notable growth in revenue, surpassing $2.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase on a comparable, currency-neutral basis.
• This growth was driven by high single-digit to double-digit volume improvements across various segments, notably in the Nourish, Health & Biosciences, Scent, and Pharma Solutions units.

• The Williams Companies recently reported their third-quarter performance for 2024, showing a series of strategic moves and expansions that have strengthened their position within the natural gas sector.
• The company announced another record quarter of adjusted EBITDA, significantly fueled by expansions in natural gas transportation and acquisitions, particularly in the Gulf Coast region.
• This achievement came despite challenges from low natural gas prices and adverse weather, notably a harsh hurricane season.

• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
• We should not assign a high probability to the asset’s resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
• The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama’s optionality makes it attractive.

• Devon Energy’s third quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, with key operational achievements alongside areas needing attention.
• On the positive side, Devon recorded strong production numbers, achieving an all-time quarterly high of 728,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• This figure reflects a 12% year-over-year growth on a production-per-share basis, surpassing guidance for the current year and resulting in upward revisions to the company’s full-year production assumptions.

• Chevron Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial headwinds.
• The company reported earnings of $4.5 billion or $2.48 per share, with adjusted earnings similarly at $4.5 billion or $2.51 per share.
• Despite these substantial earnings, this marked a decrease from the prior year largely due to lower liquids realizations and increased depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A), particularly at the Tengizchevroil (TCO) project in Kazakhstan.

• Serica is acquiring the UK assets of the Parkmead Group for an initial consideration US$6.5 mm in cash.
• The transaction includes 50% WI in the Skerryvore prospect (Serica already owns 20%) and 50% in Fynn Beauly (heavy oil discovery).
• An additional deferred consideration of US$11.7 mm will be paid in stages over the next 3 years.

• Wheaton Precious Metals reported its third-quarter results for 2024, demonstrating notable operational and financial metrics.
• The highlights included record quarterly operating cash flows of $254 million and robust production levels from its portfolio, consisting of long-life, low-cost mining assets.
• The reported production for the year to date was approximately 450,000 gold equivalent ounces, with the company on track to meet its annual production guidance ranging between 550,000 and 620,000 gold equivalent ounces.

• What you need to know: • ADF reported Q3 financial results that were in line with our expectations on revenue and beat our expectations on EBITDA.
• • Revenue came in at $80.0M (-3% YoY) vs. our $80.4M and EBITDA came in at $24.0M (+35% YoY) vs. our $19.0M.
• • While the impact of the Trump victory and tariffs is still uncertain, management remains positive on its end markets and backlog.

• Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have announced new (undefined) stimulus measures aimed at simultaneously countering tariffs from the Trump administration in 2025 and bolstering the economy, regaining confidence as China battles structural issues.
• This naturally raises the question of how this will impact commodities.
• As the world’s largest importer of commodities by a significant margin, China’s injection of capital into its economy could provide a substantial boost.

• If ORG cannot obtain the SAFE approval by the end of December, this indicates something is wrong in the process. Then the success rate of this transaction is greatly reduced.
• Acquiring CPMC is in line with Baosteel’s strategic goals and CPMC is important to Baosteel.So, the possibility of state-owned capital to agree to withdraw completely from CPMC is not high.
• It’s unclear whether Zhang Wei will continue to side with ORG, or whether he still want to exit. This actually depends on the renegotiations between Baosteel/China Foods/COFCO and Zhang Wei.

• In this insight, we review the major rights offerings/capital raises that were announced in Korea in 2024.
• In general, the major rights offerings/capital raises tend to result in lower share prices one month, three months, and over a longer time frame. 
• There are some exceptions. Peptron and ABL Bio experienced higher share prices even after their capital raise announcements, especially after a longer time frame (3 months or more).

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) rebounded higher this week, after 2 weeks down, it is already getting  overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the remaining upside appears limited.
• If you are actively trading Gold, in this insight we will analyze the current Gold patterns and show you why it may be too late to enter the trade here.
• A better opportunity to enter LONG may come after another 1 or 2 weeks, when the market should pull back again.

• Squeezed supply owing to rains lifts prices in domestic market
• Exports down 23.4% MoM at US$79.5 million in Sept
• Michelin seeks proactive policies to up rubber production 

After the bell on 5 December, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had entered into a definitive Precious Metals Purchase Agreement (PMPA, or stream) with Allied Gold regarding the Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia. Under the terms of the stream, WPM will pay US$175m to acquire 6.7% (subject to conditions – see below) of the payable gold produced from Kurmuk at 15% of the spot price of gold until 220koz has been delivered, at which point, the percentage will drop to 4.8%.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green, Sunny Optical
• Wall Street has been expressing confusion over the Fed’s potential decision (according to minutes of the November meeting) to lower the rate on its overnight reverse repo facility (RRP) by 5 bps, possibly as early as next week.
• This adjustment comes alongside expectations of a quarter-point cut in the Fed’s main policy benchmark. 

• Global Atomic Corporation (GLO) operates in the uranium and zinc industries, with a focus on the Dasa uranium mine in Niger and a profitable zinc recycling business in Türkiye.
• GLO is well-positioned for growth due to the increasing demand for uranium driven by the expansion of nuclear energy, especially in emerging markets.
• Analysts suggest that GLO could potentially see a 5x increase in value at current uranium prices, with even greater potential if uranium prices continue to rise, making it a compelling investment opportunity in the commodities sector.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Comparing helium projects presents significant challenges due to variations in risk profiles, resource sizes, stages of maturity, operating environments, and potential for commercial viability.
• For example, it may be more advantageous to invest in a smaller resource base situated near established infrastructure and customers within a favorable operational setting, rather than a much larger exploration asset that carries a minimal chance of successful economic development, even if exploration yields positive results.
• The purpose of this note is to compare the potential commerciality of the projects held by various publicly listed helium juniors.

• The WTR Sustainable Index was down 2.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).
• Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was down 3.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 0.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 4.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.9%.
• Top 10 Performers: LEV, GRB, TGEN, HTOO, NGPHF, MVST, AZRE, EGT, MXL, HYSR

• Back on the 29th August 2024, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced  ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) had secured SAMR approval.  Mofcom and NDRC approvals subsequently followed. 
• The pre-condition long stop date is the 6th January. SAFE is the outstanding pre-condition. Separately, Zhang Wei’s 22.01% irrevocable expired on the 5th December – with no HKEx announcement.
• Quite a lot to pack in with 16 business days to the pre-con long stop. Sounding out people involved with the transaction would be ideal.  So that’s what I did. 

• Outlook for 2025 across commodities sectors discussed
• Bullish view on gold, base metals, and agricultural commodities
• Neutral to bearish outlook on oil prices for 2025 and 2026

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Export restrictions have impacted the trade between China and the US, with potential for increased support for mineral imports from Canada
• The incoming Biden administration may focus on boosting domestic mineral recovery and supply chain security
• The copper market is facing challenges with potential oversupply, while cobalt prices are set for the worst year in history due to stagnating demand and increasing output.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.
• Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.
• Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.

• The funding package between Iluka Resources and the government was finalized, leading to a 10% market decline
• Iluka Resources planned to build a Rare Earths refinery in Enneba with the assistance of a $1.05 billion non recourse loan from the Australian government
• Iluka also had plans to process their Wimmera deposit through the refinery, despite challenges with separation and impurities causing delays in development.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The US oil and gas rig count rose by 7 to 589 for the week ending on 06/Dec, rising for the first time in four weeks
• For the week ending 29/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.51m bpd from 13.49m bpd the week prior. US output edged past its record high of 13.5m bpd.
• The number of active US oil rigs rose by five to 482, while the US gas rig count rose by two to 102.

• WTI futures dropped 1.8% for the week ending 06/Dec, as concerns of oversupply in 2025 offset the impact of OPEC extending cuts and rising geopolitical tensions.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.24 from 0.82 (29/Nov) last week, as call volume rose by 19.8% WoW while put volume surged by 81%.  
• WTI OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.88 from last week. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.6%.

• US natural gas prices dropped 8.5% for the week ending 06/Dec, driven by volatile weather forecasts, which predicted a warmer-than-expected winter.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.06 from 1.47 (29/Nov) the previous week as put volumes fell by 20.6% WoW, while call volumes increased by 10.2%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.84 from 0.83 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.7%.

• In this edition: • Philips/Unilever/AkzoNobel/Heineken/Signify | Chinese leaders have changed their stance on monetary policy • Aalberts | commits to FY26 objectives and launches FY30 objectives • Havas | Vivendi shareholders support demerger plan • Dutch banking sector | Volksbank to take charge of EUR 360m this year

• We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to the iron ore price. We try to answer what’s priced in at 100 USD/ton.
• We provide sensitivity tables for both stocks based on a range of 90-130 USD/ton. At 100 USD/ton, Vale (VALE US)/Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  trade at 7.4/6.4% dividend yields.
• Bullish iron ore participants subscribing to the 130 USD/ton forecast can see yields of 16.3%/11.4%. This forecast will be achievable if the China stimulus provides the expected impetus.

• ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has one remaining precondition: SAFE approval.
• Mr Wei’s irrevocable was terminated. Nevertheless, as a seller, he will accept the offer, as the shares trade below the offer price, and there is no competing offer. 
• The precondition long stop date is 6 January, sufficient time to satisfy the precondition. It would be highly unusual to secure MOFCOM and NDRC approval but not SAFE approval.

• China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, is offering to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
• CNBM’s parent – the CNBM Parent Concert Group – will not participate in the tender, therefore elevating its stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently. 
• That % increase necessitates a whitewash waiver so as to not make a mandatory general Offer. 

• NR prices stage a comeback but then undergo correction
• Rubber Board convenes series of producer meets to tackle challenges
• Rubber Board proposes a fee to issue NOC to import NR

Quadrise has made a significant step towards commercialisation, through which its innovative emulsion fuel technology will contribute to the decarbonisation of the marine sector. The company announced that it has signed a Collaboration and Operational Trial Agreement (the project agreement) with MSC Shipmanagement and Cargill, paving the way for the highly anticipated vessel trials on board the MSC Leandra. The market recognised the significance of this agreement, with Quadrise’s stock price rallying by approximately 50% on the day of the announcement.

• The +118.3% YoY growth in FY24 Q1~Q3 operating profit [OP] of ¥3,649mil on sales of ¥13,682mil (+37.1% YoY)] was due to easy comps, rather than a full recovery, especially in demand associated with PCs and servers used in general data centre.
• One of the growth drivers in FY24 is package demand associated with generative AI, to which MEC’s core products, CZ-8101 and CZ-8401 chemicals are used.
• MEC has maintained its FY24 guidance for a consolidated annual dividend payment of ¥45/share.

• • Condor has completed a C$19.4 mm equity financing priced at C$1.90 per share.
• This represents a C$2 mm increase compared the latest announcement.
• • The proceeds of the raise will allow the company to bring to Uzbekistan a third service rig in 1Q25 and a drilling rig in 2Q25 (4Q25 previously).

After a couple of transitional years, Pan American Silver (PAAS) is in a much better position to deliver more consistent operational and cost performance as the Yamana assets are integrated, La Colorada ventilation issues are resolved and the asset portfolio is largely streamlined. We are upgrading our estimates on higher commodity price assumptions and raising our valuation to US$26.0/share. The stock has been derated on improving earnings momentum and is now trading at below average historical multiples. The recent M&A provides additional valuation support.

• China National Building Material (3323 HK) has launched a conditional share buyback to acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares (18.47% of H Shares) at HK$4.03.
• The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
• The buyback is unattractive and will leave minorities short-changed, weakening a stretched balance sheet. Nevertheless, while potentially tricky, the votes should pass. 

• We view China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s proposal to buy back 9.98% of H-shares as a good opportunity for the shareholders to cash out in their position.
• Without further significant government stimulus, CNBM will find it difficult to return to the HK$4.03 offer price. Potential weak FY24 results also mean downside risks.
• Other companies with high gearing and low P/B may follow CNBM’s move. We single out the infrastructure construction companies as the likely candidates.

• The latest financial report from Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) offers a range of insights into both the achievements and challenges experienced by the company during the third quarter of 2024.
• The company, a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging, has shown resilience in a volatile market environment but also faces certain headwinds.
• In terms of performance, Graphic Packaging reported third-quarter sales of $2.2 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $433 million, reflecting a solid EBITDA margin of 19.5%.

• This is a follow-up to our initiation, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside. The flagship mine added another 5 years to the existing 3-year mine life. 
• At a 60 AUD/ton operating margin for 1.4 million tons/Yr (assuming 100 USD/ton iron ore price), this is an additional 60-65 mn AUD of cash profit for 5 years.  
• The company has commenced production in the Shine iron ore mine (1.2 mtpa) and will shortly begin production in the Beebyn-W11 mine (1.5 mtpa) in early 2025 after obtaining permits.

• In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the iron ore market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
• Stocks like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) continue to trade at double-digit dividend yields (9-10%), assuming 100 USD/ton.
• With China’s PMI improving, despite high inventories, there is an expectation of a restock for iron ore in the short term. We remain skeptical and continue to see range-bound activity.

• Valaris Ltd.’s third-quarter results reflect a focused and disciplined approach to navigating the volatile offshore drilling market.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter was $643 million, up from $610 million in the previous quarter.
• This led to an improvement in adjusted EBITDA, which rose to $150 million from $139 million.

• In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
• The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. 
• We prefer Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper. 

• Crown Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter 2024 results demonstrating a mixed performance across its operations.
• The company managed a flat net sales figure of $3.1 billion year-over-year, showing strength in specific sectors but also facing challenges in others.
• The firm observed increases in global beverage can and North American food can volumes, while other business segments saw declines.

• After resumption of production at the Triton FPSO last week, an issue with one of the compressor seals has been discovered which has resulted in production being suspended.
• These repairs are expected to take 2-4 weeks.
• We are now cautiously assuming that Triton will be offline until YE24.

• Rio Tinto sold 30% of its Winu project to Sumitomo for $400 million, surprising many with the valuation
• Expecting a PFS in 2025 for a 10 million tonne per annum scenario for the Winu project
• The partnership with Sumitomo signifies the rise of Japan and South Korea in the mining industry and may benefit Rio Tinto in terms of capital allocation and project development.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Korea Zinc’s free float is dropping from 52% to 31%, a 21%p cut.
• Despite rising volume, retail still dominates. With this trend continuing, the 80,000-share sell volume is unlikely to get buried without triggering noticeable price moves.
• Ahead of big one-day flow events, shorts are loaded, causing a dip. On rebalance day, traders buy back, triggering a bounce. This event is likely to follow the same pattern.

• In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers

• FAQ and guidance documents bring clarity
• Synthetic rubber out of the purview of EUDR
• Allows for rubber suppliers in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia to catch up

• OPEC+ extends crude oil supply cuts to the end of 2026, a year longer than planned. It also pushed its planned output hikes by three months to April 2025.
• OPEC+ revised its output hike plan, reducing monthly increases to 138k bpd over 18 months, down from 180k bpd over 12 months.
• OPEC+ approved a 300k bpd output increase for the UAE, starting in April 2025 through September 2026, delayed from the original January 2025 start.

• • Three intervals in the Reifling formation (1324 m – 1340 m, 1346 m – 1351 m and 1358 m -1382 m MD) were perforated but only limited inflow was determined.
• No fluid could reach the surface after the well was shut in.
• • Sampling of the well indicated only completion brine (not reservoir fluid) and fine solid particles of unknown origin.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Delta Dunia Makmur, Gajah Tunggal
• In the US, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 73.8 bn in October (USD 75.0 bn e / USD 83.8 bn revised). Imports fell 4% to USD 339.6 bn, while exports declined 1.6% to USD 265.7 bn.
• Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended November 30th rose to 224 k (215 k e / 215 k revised p). The focus today is on the November nonfarm payrolls report.

• Management estimates that HighPeak’s D,C,E,&F costs are ~$2 million lower for a well that recovers a similar volume of oil than the average central Midland Basin well.
• The combination highlights the return proposition for HighPeak’s acreage, as recovering similar oil volumes for less than 75% of the D,C,E,&F cost equates to a capital-efficient asset base.
• New wells drilled during 2024 in the northern and northeastern extension areas have expanded Flat Top’s development core, adding new inventory.