Energy & Materials Sector

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
• Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
• Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

• Pure-Play, Low-Cost Producer with Ambitious Growth: Sigma Lithium is a new, low-cost producer of high-purity, environmentally friendly lithium concentrate from its single asset, the Grota do Cirilo project in Brazil. The company is aggressively expanding, with plans to more than triple production capacity by the end of 2026, positioning it as a significant player in the EV battery supply chain.
• Leveraged to a Volatile but Recovering Lithium Market: The company’s profitability is highly sensitive to lithium prices, which have been volatile after collapsing from 2022 highs. While the market has been oversupplied, projections suggest a tightening supply-demand balance from 2025 onwards, driven by robust EV and energy storage growth, which could provide significant tailwinds.
• High-Risk, High-Reward Equity Profile: As a single-asset company in an emerging market with a short operational history, Sigma carries significant execution and geopolitical risks. However, its industry-leading cost structure, strong ESG credentials, and aggressive, funded expansion plan offer substantial upside potential for investors with a high-risk tolerance.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Spain’s Ministry of Economy has validated the CNMC’s conditional approval of Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid, removing all regulatory risk and shifting the focus entirely to CNMV processing, acceptance, and deal execution.
• Ercros’s deteriorating fundamentals and thin liquidity heighten shareholder-acceptance uncertainty; ~75% tender is required, while prior minority opposition and elevated trough-cycle multiples complicate the risk-reward despite regulatory de-risking.
• With shares at €3.30, the spread has compressed to ~6%, offering a short-dated carry trade with a 45–55% annualised IRR if settlement occurs by February 2026, versus a €2.56 break.

• Crude oil futures Friday were little changed although Brent tested weekly highs as doubts grow on the prospects for a Russia-Ukraine settlement.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at $63.33/b (1854 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.34/b, but off from the week’s high of $63.76/b.
• Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.21/b , after trade resumed following a technical glitch.

• Murphy Oil Corporation’s third quarter 2025 earnings report indicates a mix of robust operational results tempered by strategic caution amid market volatility.
• The company surpassed its production guidance for the second consecutive quarter, reaching a total production of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day.
• This was bolstered by a strong showing in oil production, averaging 94,000 barrels per day.

• Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far.  Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.
• Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings.  With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.
• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , Chery Automobile (9973 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) were the largest IPOs of the year while PegBio (2565 HK) has had the best return.

• Semiconductor segment drives structural margin expansion, now contributing over 100% of core profit with record Q3 performance.
• Legacy Chemicals and Graphite remain weak, but consolidated EBITDA outlook for FY2026–27 strengthens on improving mix.
• Forward valuation supports ¥8,000 target; Resonac trades at a discount to global semiconductor-materials peers despite rising semis exposure.

• The third quarter of 2025 earnings report for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LP) presents a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic advancements and ongoing challenges.
• On the positive side, LP’s Siding business showed resilience in a soft market, with a 5% increase in sales revenue driven primarily by pricing and a favorable mix.
• Notably, the ExpertFinish prefinished siding product, with a 17% increase in sales volume, has contributed significantly, buoyed by the successful launch of a new line of nature-inspired colors.

Highlights

• Malaysia’s NR output drops 14.8% MoM in September 2025

• Quarterly production rises 36.9% despite yearly contraction

• Market sentiment mixed amid EUDR delay reports and rate-cut hopes

Natural rubber production in September fell by 14.8% to 26,647 tons from 31,285 tons in August, marking a 16.3% year-on-year drop from September 2024’s 31,847 tons. The contraction came as a setback following a modest recovery in earlier months

• Daicel is notable for being Japan’s only manufacturer of acetic acid and for holding world-leading market positions in some cellulose-acetate products and in acetate tow for cigarette filters.
• At current prices, the dividend yield of the company is at a healthy 4.6%. Its dividend yield averaged 4.4% from FY2021 to FY2025.
• The company has enjoyed a solid sales growth of 10.5% CAGR from FY2021 to FY2025. Operating income nearly doubled from FY2021 to FY2025.

• Fenix Resources is a rapidly growing, fully integrated iron ore producer in Western Australia, leveraging its wholly-owned logistics and port infrastructure to unlock stranded assets and maintain high margins.
• The company’s recent acquisition of a 30-year mining right at the Weld Range project is transformational, securing a 290 million tonne resource base that significantly extends mine life and provides a clear pathway to scale production beyond 4 million tonnes per annum.
• While the company trades at attractive valuation multiples and is poised for significant cash flow growth, its earnings are highly sensitive to the volatile global iron ore price, which remains the principal risk to the investment thesis.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Albemarle Corporation’s Q3 2025 performance showcases several key dynamics that are influencing the company’s strategic and operational directions.
• The company reported a 7% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $226 million, despite facing challenges like lower lithium pricing.
• The net sales for the quarter were $1.3 billion, reflecting a decrease primarily due to the weakened lithium market, although partially offset by increased volumes in their Energy Storage and Ketjen segments.

• Kinetik’s third quarter 2025 results present a mixed scenario influenced by both strategic developments and challenges due to commodity market volatility.
• The company shows improvements on the operational front with the successful launch of the Kings Landing processing facility.
• This expansion in New Mexico bolsters Kinetik’s capacity and positions it to support increased production in the region.

• Permian Resources, a prominent player in the Delaware Basin, demonstrated strong operational performance in the third quarter of 2025.
• The company recorded its highest quarterly free cash flow per share despite a challenging commodity environment, showcasing robust execution across its operations.
• With production figures surpassing expectations—oil production rose 6% to 187,000 barrels per day and total production hit 410,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day—the company credits its success to effective deployment of its Texas development project.

• Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, delivering an adjusted EBITDA of $669 million.
• The company is continuing its strategic focus on becoming a leading North American pure-play crude midstream entity.
• A significant move in this direction is the pending sale of its Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) business, expected to conclude by the first quarter of 2026.

• Plains All American Pipeline’s recent earnings call sheds light on its strategic maneuvers and financial health as it aims to solidify its position as a premier crude midstream company.
• The company reported a solid third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $669 million, reinforcing the execution of its strategy focused on leveraging its asset base and maintaining disciplined capital management.
• The anticipated sale of Plains All American Pipeline’s Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) assets, scheduled to close early next year, marks a strategic shift to a more crude-focused portfolio.

• Revoil S.A. engages in the trading and marketing of petroleum products for use in cars, homes, and vessels in Greece.
• It offers gasoline, fuel oil, petrol, diesel and a range of lubricants for petrol engines, diesel engines, hydraulic systems, gear wheels, and outboard engines.
• The company also provides lamps, wind- screen wipers, car deodorants, and mobile accessories as well as car and moto wash, lubricant change, and other services. 

• Royal Gold’s third-quarter performance reflects a strategic expansion and strong financial results, highlighting both operational successes and potential challenges.
• The company reported record quarterly revenue of $252 million, driven by higher metal prices and increased production from key assets like Mount Milligan and Cortez.
• Gold continues to be the primary revenue driver, contributing 78% of total revenue.

• Iron ore futures hit a three-week high as shipments fell by 8.3% WoW, but blast furnace shutdowns signal weak demand and limit further upside.
• Managed money participants reduced net long exposure across all futures and options expiries, reflecting a more cautious market stance.
• The DCE-SGX spread has retreated from the upper Bollinger band and slipped below the 9-day MA, indicating softening momentum. 

• Daido Steel (5471 JP) produced FY25 (March year-end) 1H OP [IFRS basis] of ¥18,464mil (+1.1% YoY) on sales of ¥284,499mil (+0.4% YoY).
• Both sales and OP surpassed guidance which called for OP of ¥12,500mil (-31.5% YoY) on sales of ¥275,000mil (-3.0% YoY), thanks primarily to stronger than expected demand for ship engine valves in the open die forging business and despite having incurred about ¥2,300mil of costs related to the Superalloy Manufacturing Process Transformation Project, one of the firm’s ongoing strategic investments in the current MTP.
• The Mid-Term Plan [MTP], which ends in FY26, was revised down to reflect (1) a larger than expected decline in steel product sales volumes, (2) sluggish auto production and weaker than expected industrial machinery-related orders and (3) increasing lack of clarity in the business environment.

• Nicca Chemical is a leading Japanese specialty chemical manufacturer with a dual-pillar business model in Chemicals (surfactants for textiles, paper, etc.) and Cosmetics (professional hair care). The company holds a dominant market share in the domestic textile chemicals sector and is pursuing growth through high-value-added products and overseas expansion, primarily in Asia.
• The company presents an attractive valuation profile, trading at a significant discount to book value and a low P/E ratio. This is complemented by a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a robust dividend yield and a remarkable 3-year dividend per share CAGR of over 33%.
• Future growth is expected to be driven by the “INNOVATION25″strategic plan, which focuses on increasing the sales ratio of high-value-added products (Environment, Health, Digital), expanding the cosmetics business, and improving capital efficiency with a focus on raising its price-to-book ratio.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Nevada King Gold is a leading gold explorer, focused on the exploration and development of its flagship Atlanta Project in Nevada.
• The Atlanta Project hosts a 1.12Moz resource at an average grade of 1.11 g/t Au, of which 91% is in the Measured and Indicated category.
• Atlanta is aggressively exploring for new resources while progressing towards a PEA.

• 88 Energy Limited 1.08p £12.15m (88E.L) The Australian oil and gas Company advised that on 19 November, its wholly owned subsidiary, Captivate Energy Alaska, Inc., was declared the successful bidder for select acreage in the North Slope Areawide 2025W Oil and Gas Lease Sale.
• The successful bids expand 88 Energy’s operated acreage across two high-potential areas to the east and west of Project Leonis, consistent with the Company’s infrastructure-led and data-driven exploration approach.
• The bid included fourteen new leases secured covering approximately 34,560 acres across two focus areas—South Prudhoe and Kad River East.

• The Canadian focused development and exploration Company raised £656K earlier this month at 60p in a placing and WRAP offer.
• The priority for the use of funds is the Tailings Project at the historic Winston Mine which was operational between 1988 and 1998 in Ontario.
• There is plenty of evidence that there is a significant quantity of valuable minerals in the Tailings which is supported by sample assays showing high grades of gold, gallium, and silver as well as polymetallic zinc and copper.

• Arrow reported 3Q25 production of 4,214 boe/d, broadly in line with our ~4.4 mboe/d expectation.
• The company held US$6.5 mm in cash at end‑September (with no debt), rising to US$8.2 mm by 1 November.
• With only one rig currently in operation, recent drilling success at M‑5 and M‑6, and the imminent contribution from the M‑HZ7 horizontal well, we expect Arrow’s cash position to continue to strengthen.

• Average 3Q25 production was 27.5 mboe/d, comprising 15.4 mboe/d from Bruce, 7.7 mboe/d from Triton, and 4.4 mboe/d from other assets.
• This performance is in line with expectations, given issues at Triton, that are now solved, were previously flagged.
• Production at the Bruce hub is above 20 mboe/d, though output was temporarily curtailed to ~16 mboe/d in October.

• Crude oil futures were moving sideways Thursday as markets entered into a holding pattern amid ongoing talks on the Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $63.34/b (1930 GMT) versus Wednesday’s settle of $63.13/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $59.10/b against a previous close of $58.65/b.
• Analysts said that while both Moscow and Kyiv have accepted versions of the US-brokered plan, there are still several key sticking points, particularly regarding Russia’s territorial demands.

• Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil limits margin recovery, while reduced future investments highlight challenges; stronger trade-defense measures will be needed to restore competitiveness.
• North America remains Gerdau’s key earnings driver, supported by tariffs, healthy construction demand, and a resilient balance sheet that underpins credit strength.
• We maintain Neutral, seeing limited spread-compression potential; we find greater value in the 2044s for their yield pickup and see overall valuations close to fair value across the curve.

• BHP has abandoned a last minute bid for Anglo American, which will likely see the latter’s planned merger with Teck with proceed 
• We consider other potential targets for BHP, all copper, concluding that most seem unlikely for now, especially with the company stating a focus on organic growth
• BHP faces the risks of a decline in iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus) prices in our view, while it trades at premium to the sector and above our DCF 

• Factory visit to GUS Technology reveals Taiwan’s strategic position as a non-China battery supplier for defense and critical infrastructure applications.
• Proprietary pouch cell technology with patents in Taiwan and Japan addresses weight-sensitive applications including drones, underwater vehicles, and data center UPS systems.
• Dual product strategy (safety-focused Mettle Series and energy-dense Hyper Series) targets both commercial reliability and mission-critical performance markets.

Highlights

• MOFCOM imposes steep tariffs on Canadian, Japanese HIIR

• Domestic and Indian firms gain, but Indian gain may be short-lived

• Sinopec bets big on green high-end rubber materials

MOFCOM’s inquiry, launched in September 2024 at the request of domestic producers, found preliminary evidence that imported HIIR from the two nations had been sold in China at unfairly low prices, inflicting “substantial harm” on local manufacturers.

• New Zealand Energy, L&M Energy, and Genesis Energy have entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to advance the Tariki gas storage project.
• The MoU establishes an exclusive framework for collaboration across technical studies, commercial negotiations, and project development milestones, ultimately leading to a final gas storage services agreement.
• This agreement will underpin the path toward a final investment decision, project completion, and commercial operations.

• Refining margins surged as diesel shortages deepened, driven by outages, sanctions, and shrinking Western capacity. Diesel-led product strength lifted refining margins even as crude stayed weak.
• The U.S. crack spread hit its 2025 high in November. Despite a brief correction, Europe’s structural tightness will keep the demand for diesel high.
• Europe’s sanctions, limited capacity, and winter demand will boost U.S. exports, keeping gasoline and distillate inventories tight despite temporary price corrections.

• Jetstream #4 has penetrated the entire interpreted helium-bearing interval encountering pressurized gas during drilling.
• Bottom-hole pressure measured ~674 psi at 444 m depth, rising to 887 psi at 578 m.
• These measurements align with the pressure regime observed at Jetstream #3, located 600 m to the north, where bottom-hole pressure was estimated at ~960 psi at 661 m depth.

• The M-6 vertical well has encountered 30 ft of net oil pay in the Carbonera C9 formation (previously named Guadalupe).
• This compares favourably with the results of the M-5 well that encountered ~ 26 feet of net oil pay in the same formation.
• This result provides a strong foundation for the first horizontal well at Mateguafa (M-HZ7), already spudded and expected to come onstream in December.

• On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG & Co. (TKMS).

• TKMS stands out as Germany’s only full-systems provider for non-nuclear submarines, surface vessels and maritime electronics.

• The spin-off is part of a broader move by Thyssenkrupp to unlock shareholder value by simplifying its conglomerate structure.

• We maintain Overweight on the 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, meaningful spread pickup versus LatAm BB peers, and stronger downside protection at current discounted prices.
• We think credit metrics will remain stable, supported by strong liquidity covering maturities through 2027, easier-to-roll bank debt, and expected EBITDA improvement from recovering steel and resilient mining.
• We see potential spread compression from recovering steel prices, protectionist measures, asset-sale-driven deleveraging, and solid operating assets, reinforcing the bonds’ attractive relative value at current wide levels.

• Crude oil futures closed higher Wednesday amid volatile trade, with investors waiting for a response from Russia after Ukraine backed the revised US-brokered peace deal.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $63.05/b (1951 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $62.48/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $58.57/b against a previous close of $57.95/b.
• Benchmarks recovered after closing at the lowest levels in a month as investors priced in what was seen as significant progress towards a peace deal.

• POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) is looking to sell its remaining stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) to raise up to US$154m via a cleanup block trade.
• This deal represents 1.6 days of ADV and is around 1% of shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) this week has resumed its uptrend after a brief, shallow setback in mid-November.
• This insight will analyze our Gold Futures Dec 25 model to determine profit targets that could be reached in the next 3 weeks (in December 2025).
• Range: Gold could reach again previous highs, in December, while if it goes down it could reach the 3933 support zone.

• After the market close on 25 November, it was reported that POSCO Holdings is selling its remaining stake in Nippon Steel Corporation in a block deal sale.
• The block deal sale involves selling the remaining 39.2 million shares of Nippon Steel. The deal is valued at 24.2 billion yen (approximately 227 billion won). 
• Given the overall negative sentiment on POSCO’s potential acquisition of HMM, until this uncertainty is resolved, POSCO Holdings’ share price could continue to face stiff headwinds. 

• Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.
• FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.
• Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.

• SHK reported 12% revenue growth in H1 FY26, but the reported EBITDA margin was compressed due to significant, deliberate investments in new growth initiatives and higher insurance costs.
• The margin compression is temporary, a function of strategic, discretionary capex and opex, which are critical for achieving the management’s ambitious 18–20% EBITDA margin target by FY27–FY28.
• The market is discounting the value of this forward-looking investment phase; sustained execution on new capacity, coupled with global regulatory shifts favoring organized players, provides a strong catalyst path.

• Western Midstream Partners reported strong financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating resilience and growth in key operational areas.
• The company achieved a record adjusted EBITDA, driven by cost reductions and strategic initiatives, marking this as the second consecutive quarter of such financial success.
• Natural gas throughput reached unprecedented levels, supported by the company’s strategic presence in the Delaware and DJ Basins.

• Texas Pacific Land Corporation demonstrated a robust performance in the third quarter of 2025 amidst a challenging commodity price environment.
• The company achieved record-breaking metrics across key performance indicators despite prevailing low oil and gas prices.
• The underlying strength of Texas Pacific Land Corporation’s business model, rooted heavily in oil and gas royalties and a strong portfolio of water assets, has been reflected in their financial and operational outputs this quarter.

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has announced a production update for both the Boorara and Phillips Find JV mining operations.
• The update details progression on mining and processing at both projects as well as further detail on forward expectations which we think helps guide investors towards understanding ultimate outcomes.

• Quantum Data Energy (QDE, MAST.L) delivers flexible power solutions to the UK grid and AI datacentres worldwide.
• MAST.L is targeting 1GW of new generation by 2030.
• Our current value range GBp 51-54 is based only on 150MW and our expected dilution of 223m shares.

• Nutrien Ltd’s third-quarter earnings for 2025 demonstrate a mixed bag of achievements and challenges, offering considerable detail on the company’s operational dynamics and strategic moves.
• The company has evidenced strong structural earnings growth over the first nine months of the year, driven by record upstream fertilizer sales and improvements in the retail segment.
• Noteworthy is the raised sales volume guidance for potash and the maintenance of retail adjusted EBITDA guidance, signifying a steady operational environment.

• The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
• Today is the base date for the December 2025 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.
• We expect four changes for T50 and three additional changes for the T100 index for the December 2025 rebal.

• Gold prices have been steadily rising, with projections of reaching $10,000, possibly as soon as 2026.
• The recent surge in gold prices has attracted more institutional investors and retail buyers, especially in countries like Australia and China.
• The volatility in gold prices has also increased, with the potential for rapid gains as smaller percentage increases can lead to significant profits.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Strong gold demand in 3Q25, totaling almost 980 tons, leading to a surge in demand inflow
• Expectation of continued central bank buying and investor demand growth in 2026
• Bullish outlook for gold prices, with potential risks including rate sensitivity and potential tariff uncertainties for other precious metals

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Highlights

• Consumption outpaces domestic production growth

• Imports decline despite steady industrial demand

• Fresh probe into halobutyl rubber dumping

The first four months of the financial year illustrated an industry striving for balance — one still navigating between domestic self-sufficiency ambitions and dependence on imports for certain specialized grades. Demand from tire makers, which account for nearly two-thirds of synthetic rubber use in India, remained stable amid mixed trends in automotive production and exports. 

• Hornbeck operates one of the world’s largest high-spec offshore fleets, serving diversified markets including oilfield services, military support, and emerging offshore wind.
• Strong revenue growth and consistent profitability reflect resilient demand across deepwater energy, specialty services, and expanding non-oilfield markets.
• IPO prospects hinge on market timing and valuation, as energy-related offerings have produced mixed results in 2025.

• Crude oil futures tumbled on Friday as ceasefire speculation around the Russia/Ukraine war gained momentum after President Zelensky agreed to work with Washington on the US-drafted proposals.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.50/b (1933 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.38/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $57.99/b against a previous close of $59/b.
• President Zelensky said he is ready for “honest work” with the US after receiving a draft of the plan to end the war with Russia, although European officials have cautioned that the proposals are too one-sided in favour of Moscow.

• Ball Corporation’s third quarter 2025 performance indicates both strengths and challenges for the company, as per their recent earnings call.
• During this period, Ball Corporation reported a 4.2% growth in beverage can volumes and a 5.1% increase in comparable operating earnings.
• Comparable diluted earnings per share saw a 12.1% rise, while the company returned $1.35 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

• International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) presented its third-quarter results for 2025, showcasing a steady operational performance amidst challenging market conditions.
• The company maintained flat sales compared to the previous year, despite headwinds such as geopolitical challenges, macroeconomic uncertainty, and soft demand in certain sectors.
• Growth was observed in the Scent and Taste segments, counterbalancing weakness in Food Ingredients and Health & Biosciences, particularly in North America.

• The Mosaic Company’s third-quarter 2025 results showcase a complex financial landscape characterized by significant investments, strong regional performances, and strategic asset reallocations.
• The company reported a substantial increase in net income to $411 million compared to $122 million in the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $806 million from $448 million.
• This improvement was primarily driven by higher prices across all segments and particularly robust performance in Mosaic Fertilizantes.

Nabaltec’s numbers for the first nine months of 2025 (9M25) confirm resilient earnings in a weak demand environment. Group revenue declined 1.9% y-o-y to €155.1m, while EBIT fell 16.8% to €14.0m, with a nine-month EBIT margin of 9%. Guidance for 2025 is unchanged at up to a 2% revenue contraction and an EBIT margin of 7–9%. Although Q4 can be seasonally weak, given the nine-month results (with a Q3 EBIT margin of 10.3%) the full year guidance looks achievable in our view, and we see no reason to revisit our estimates or valuation. Nabaltec is controlling its costs as far as possible in a difficult demand environment, but it retains a conservative balance sheet and a number of growth options.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as Rio Tinto (RIO US) commenced shipments from its Simandou project. 
• Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years. 

• Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)‘s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. 
• Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. 
• We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.

• Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) raised around US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Copper inventory on the COMEX surpassed 400,000 tons on Friday, marking an increase of 330% from the beginning of the year, amidst speculation of a levy of tariffs.
• The Department of Commerce has issued a proclamation imposing a 15% tariff in 2027, with the rate increasing to 30% by 2028, implying a LME-Comex Spread of >3000 USD/ton.
• In addition to the sucking up of copper inventory into the US, we have supply shortages (see: Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton )

• The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
• Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
• At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.

• The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• FY2025 operating profit sharply upgraded; earnings base rebased higher across FY2026–28.
• Engineered Materials accelerating with VSP™ and FaradFlex® capacity expansions; ~25–30% OP CAGR implied.
• Metals more resilient than expected; ¥50 bn buyback supports valuation despite recent re-rating.

• Simandou’s planned 120 Mt annual output could supply about 6% of global seaborne ore by 2030, pressuring Australia and Brazil and shifting premium-grade pricing.
• Despite Guinea’s push to diversify buyers, roughly three-quarters of Simandou’s ownership ties back to China, making most tonnage effectively committed to Chinese mills.
• Weak Chinese steel margins and a 12% YoY drop in October output limit near-term uptake, but long-term decarbonisation trends support stronger demand for high-grade feedstock.

• Future Metals NL is an exploration-stage company focused on its 100% owned Panton PGM-Nickel Project in Western Australia, which is considered the highest-grade PGM deposit in Australia.
• The Panton project has a significant JORC Mineral Resource Estimate of 4.5 million ounces of PGM and 185,000 tonnes of nickel, positioning it as a globally significant PGM resource outside of the primary supply jurisdictions of Russia and South Africa.
• While the project shows robust economics in a December 2023 Scoping Study, the company is currently pre-revenue and faces the typical risks of an exploration company, including financing, development, and commodity price risks.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Kinross Gold Corporation’s latest financial performance shows a blend of optimism and caution for investors.
• The company reported a strong third quarter, indicating an efficient operational execution across its global mining assets.
• Production was in line with expectations at approximately 504,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $1,145 per ounce.

• Martin Marietta Materials reported an impressive third quarter for 2025, marked by record performance across both aggregates and specialties, emphasizing the enduring strength of its business model and strategic focus.
• Aggregates revenues increased by 17% ($1.5 billion), with gross margins improving to 36%.
• The Specialties business also set records, achieving a 60% revenue increase to $131 million.

• Ovintiv’s recent quarterly earnings call provides a robust overview of the company’s strategic initiatives, financial performance, and future outlook as it continues to solidify its position as a leading North American independent oil and gas exploration and production company.
• From the information available, several key themes emerge, showcasing both strengths and areas requiring caution.
• Firstly, Ovintiv’s acquisition of NuVista Energy presents a significant strategic move.

Pan American Silver’s Q325 results saw the initial 27-day contribution from the recently acquired 44% interest in the Juanicipio project, which boosted its attributable silver production by c 10% and lowered the silver segment all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to an impressive US$15.4/oz. EBITDA adjusted for equity investment in the project was up 51% y-o-y and 11% q-o-q. We have upgraded our estimates on higher commodity prices and Juanicipio, raising our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of PAAS from US$38.0/share to US$43.5/share. The company is also evaluating a two-stage development approach for Skarn to maximise the value of the combined deposit, which, in our view, is not yet full priced in by the market.

• Sailfish Royalty reported Q3 financial results, including revenue of $0.9M (vs. our estimate of $0.7M) and adjusted EBITDA of $0.4M (vs. our estimate of $0.2M).
• Spring Valley continues to progress with Wheaton Precious Metals entering into a $670M stream on the project.
• This places a premium valuation onto FISH’s Spring Valley royalties compared to our model.

• In today’s edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta merger • InPost | enters cross-border deal with Austrian Post for business customers • Unilever | said to be exploring the sale of three UK heritage brands • Corbion | targets adjusted EBITDA of approx. EUR 300m by 2028 • bpostgroup | renews contract with Amazon for 5 years

• PowerBank reported first-quarter results that exceeded our expectations on the top and bottom line.
• Quarterly revenues will remain uneven as the company transitions to become an independent power producer over the coming years.
• Near-term demand should remain strong in the US solar market ahead of the expiration of the solar investment tax credit, but the outlook is less certain beyond 2026.