Energy & Materials Sector

• Amid chaos in Korean politics (including impeachment of the Acting President Han Duck Soo), the FSC announced that the change in the procedure for quarterly dividends was passed into law.
• The main change that has been made is that the the investors will know in advance how much they will receive in quarterly dividends. 
• Amid market turmoil, numerous high dividend paying stocks such as Hankook & Company, HD Hyundai, and KT Corp have been outperforming the market this year. 

• ChampionX Corporation delivered a mixed set of results in the fourth quarter and full year 2023, revealing both strengths and challenges in its financial performance and market position.
• The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $944 million, which was slightly up sequentially but 4% lower year-over-year, reflecting the impacts of softer U.S. land drilling and completions activity.
• However, the company’s adjusted EBITDA remained flat from the previous quarter at $198 million, marking a 10% increase over the prior year, driven by higher volumes, productivity, and cost management.

• Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 earnings report reveals several notable strengths and challenges that potential investors should consider when evaluating the company’s investment profile.
• On the positive side, Magnolia achieved consistent financial and operational performance.
• The company generated total net income of $106 million and adjusted EBITDAX of $244 million, maintaining capital discipline by spending merely 42% of its adjusted EBITDAX on drilling and completing wells.

• Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAGP) provided insights into its financial and operational performance in the third quarter of 2024.
• The company reported a robust operational quarter, with expectations to hit the upper range of its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year, between $2.725 billion and $2.775 billion.
• This positive outlook is fueled by strong performance across several key areas.

• CPMC Holdings (906 HK)’s offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) is HK$7.21 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 10 January.  
• CCASS data shows that Mr Wei has tendered (22.01% of outstanding shares). Including acceptances, ORG’s shareholding was 46.63% of outstanding shares as of 24 December.
• The Board supports the offer, and it is close to being declared unconditional. At the last close and 25 January payment, the gross/annualized spread was 0.8%/10.9%.

• In FY08/24, revenue was JPY82.1bn (-3.0% YoY), operating profit was JPY1.5bn (+172.2% YoY), recurring profit was JPY1.0bn (+355.9% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY533mn (+212.8% YoY). The initial company forecast at the beginning of the fiscal year was revenue of JPY72.9bn, operating profit of JPY634mn, recurring profit of JPY454mn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY320mn. The initial assumptions were an exchange rate of JPY135/USD and an LME copper price of USD8,500/ton.
• The USD remained above JPY150 until end-Q3 and LME copper prices exceeded USD9,000/ton since April 2024. The company thus revised its performance forecast upward at its Q3 results briefing to revenue of JPY82.1bn, operating profit of JPY2.3bn, recurring profit of JPY1.9bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY1.1bn.
• However, due to a decline in LME copper prices in Q4, the actual results for FY08/24 fell below the revised forecast.

• Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) recently reported mixed results for its third quarter of 2024.
• The company’s performance recognized some bright spots but ultimately fell short of its financial guidance due to both external market dynamics and internal operational challenges.
• Starting with the positives, ATI’s segment-adjusted EBITDA margins met or exceeded expectations, with notable sequential improvement in its High-Performance Materials and Components (HPMC) segment margins, which edged closer to the mid-20s percent range.

• Chemours is a chemical producer with a diverse portfolio in three segments
• Stock value decline due to poor TiO2 trends and weak refrigerant performance
• Expected earnings improvement in the second half of the year driven by growth in refrigerants, duopoly in next generation refrigerants, and long-term growth potential in data center cooling technology

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• Gloves main exports of rubber-based products at RM1.5 billion
• A total of 7,652 paid employees recorded in Oct, down 23.6% YoY
• Malaysian Sustainable Natural Rubber (MSNR) initiative launched

• Vale Indonesia has released the first guidance for its new projects with nickel matte to shift from 100% of revenue to 49% by 2029E, with nickel ore rising to 48%
• S&P has upgraded the company’s credit rating to BB+ from BB, placing it ahead of Indonesia’s BB- country rating and below the BBB rating of parent company Vale   
• We expect a weak nickel price will weigh on the shares in early 2025, although there could be considerable long-term upside from new projects and multiples remain low 

• Insolation Energy (INA IN), originated from Jaipur, Rajasthan has been a beneficiary of the heavy solar tailwinds in the last two years and has been involved in major capex phase.  
• The company has received big contracts such as the MoU with government to the tune of INR 100 bn in spite of having net worth of only INR 1.1 bn.
• As far as forensics is concerned, we notice several irregularities such as low capitalisations, misclassification of OCF, EPS, naïve accounting of investments, forex movements, strange movements in margins, etc.

• WTI futures fell 2.6% for the week ending 20/Dec, pressured by weak economic data, a robust dollar, and the Fed’s hawkish outlook on rate cuts in 2025.  
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.95 from 1.15 (13/Dec) last week, as call volume dropped by 52.5% WoW while put volume decreased by 60.8%.   
• WTI OI PCR rose to 0.87 from 0.85 last week. Call OI fell by 18.5% WoW, while put OI declined by 16.3%. 

• 40-45% of production forest areas in Vietnam certified for sustainable  management 
• VRG sold over 800 tons EUDR rubber netting an additional US$250/ton
• Member firms abroad readying to sign contracts on EUDR rubber

• US natural gas prices surged by 14.3% for the week ending 20/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, favourable long-term weather forecasts, and stronger-than-expected declines in natural gas stockpiles.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell sharply to 0.60 from 1.10 (13/Dec) the previous week as call volumes surged by 228.8% WoW, while put volumes increased by 77.6%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR inched up to 0.84 from 0.83 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.0%.

• Q2FY25 performance was strong led by volume growth and margin improvement. Q2FY25 revenue grew 31% YoY and 12%+ QoQ. Volumes grew 24.6% YoY (9.5% QoQ) led by strong demand environment.
• Margins have now normalized as raw material prices have stabilized. EBITDA margin improved to 14.9% vs 14.7% QoQ and 13.5% YoY. PAT margin grew to 5.8% vs 3.2% YoY.
• RPPL’s value-added segments like barrier packaging and injection molding are growing rapidly. Exports are also steady at INR 10cr+ per quarter and have a strong order pipeline.

• Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025
• Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts
• Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.

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• On 20 December, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) satisfied the precondition for its Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.
• Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made. 
• Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.

• Operators high on quantum jump in exports to Malaysia
• VRA Secretary-General says Vietnam keen on fully meeting EUDR
• Major challenge variety of sources including imports and mixing

• Chairman Choi has proposed a cumulative voting system which is one of the agenda items to be discussed and voted upon at the EGM on 23 January. 
• There is likely to be continued uncertainty about proxy voting, including whether or not Korea Zinc could use cumulative voting system for Chairman Choi to retain control of the company. 
• On 23 December, Korea Zinc (010130 KS) announced that it will propose a 10 to 1 stock split on the next EGM scheduled for 23 January 2025.

• On Friday, the 20th December, GAPack (468 HK) announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions.
• The Offer Document has now been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for tendering. The First Close is the 21st January.
• This Doc is largely a nothing burger. The Response Document, which will include the IFA, is required to be dispatched on or before the 7 January 2025. 

• Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
• Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
• The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

• While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
• The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
• FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

• The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.
• For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.

• During the public hearing, Lee Jae-myung asked Simpac’s CFO about their 0.3x PBR, then remarked, “That’s prime territory for a hostile M&A.”
• With PBRs under 0.3x, these companies may roll out shareholder returns to manage political pressure—definitely worth tracking from a value-up trading perspective.
• Hanwha is interesting due to its room for shareholder returns and potential merger with Hanwha Energy. With the new Commercial Act, a public tender offer is likely. Worth watching closely.

• RaaS has published a flash comment on NT-focused gas explorer/producer Empire Energy Group (ASX:EEG) following the recently released findings of the Independent Expert Scientific Committee (IESC) on unconventional gas in the Beetaloo which has assessed the potential environmental impact and risk on water resources to be ‘minor’ if appropriate mitigation strategies are implemented.
• The article published on the NT News website, also references comments from the Federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (DCEEW) which concluded that exploration work (to date) did not meet the legal threshold of being a matter of national environmental significance to be assessed under national environmental law.
• In our view, these findings from both assessments are positive for operators with respect to current gas development plans and potential future phases of gas expansion.

• During the lunch break, Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)  announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions – the final approvals concerned outbound direct investments.
• The Offer Document, including the IFA opinion, is expected to be dispatched  in seven days – or 27th December, at which time, the Offer will be open to acceptances.
• Evidently the Jeff Bi/Gong Hong MGO isn’t materialising any time soon. Provided the IFA is supportive – and that should now be known – management should unanimously back XJF’s Offer.

• The First Huarui Offer Closing Date is Jan.10 2025. The latest time/date by which the Huarui Offer can become or be declared unconditional as to acceptances is 18 February 2025.
• China Foods once chose to side with Baosteel – They are both SOEs.Although regulatory agencies have given the green light, it’s still unclear if China Foods will accept Huarui Offer.
• The “key variable” is Zhang Wei’s attitude. Investors can choose bet on it.It would be wise for arbitrageurs to wait until Zhang Wei makes his move before making a decision.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green
• In the US, the third estimate for Q3/24 annualised GDP was revised upwards to 3.1% q-o-q (from 2.8% in the first and second estimates). Q3 personal consumption was raised to 3.7% (3.6% e / 3.5% p), and the core PCE price index to 2.2% (2.1% e / 2.1% p). Separately, November existing home sales grew at a quicker pace than expected at 4.8% m-o-m (3.2% e / 3.4% p) to 4.15 mn units, the most since March.
• Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% to 99.7 in November, nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October.

• Widespread caution around Chinese buying sentiment 
• Weakness in Yuan can pose significant challenge
• Trade data not very optimistic

• Continuum Green Energy Ltd (1580973D IN) is looking to raise about US$430m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, Ambit, Citi and JM Fin.
• Continuum Green Energy Limited is an independent power producer with over 14 years of experience in identifying, developing, constructing and operating renewable energy projects in India.
• It acquired its first 16.50 MW wind project in 2010 and has grown its portfolio to a total operational and under-construction capacity of 3.52 GWp, as of Dec 9, 2024.

• The TGT and CNV licenses in Vietnam have been extended by five years, to December 2031 and December 2032, respectively.
• In return, Pharos’ working interest in the licenses is reduced from 30.5% to 25.3% for TGT and from 25% to 20% for CNV.
• This extension is significant for Pharos as it unlocks approximately 5.7 mmboe of resources and immediately adds 0.8 mmboe of 2P reserves.

• At a 1.5% gross spread to terms, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) is trading with completion is mind after the last pre-condition – SAFE – was satisfied on the 13th December. 
• The Offer Doc is now out and the transaction is open for acceptances. The First Close is the 10th January. 
• I’d expect this deal to turn unconditional on or before the First Close, with payment around the 20th January.  

• KCP Ltd (KCPL IN) is available at a significant discount due to underperformance and margin deterioration.
• The sugar sector is performing well due to higher realization and higher sugar cultivation. 
• The company is poised for a high valuation if it demerges or sale its cement business, which is a big drag in the overall valuation. 

• For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.

• Gulf Marine Services provides support vessels to the oil & gas industry in the Middle East
• The company serves clients such as ADNOC and ARAMCO for platform operations and maintenance work
• Strong connections with ADNOC and cost-effective vessels offer potential for significant growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector.
• Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation.
• Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.

• Sealed Air is undervalued and poised for a turnaround, with a price target of $49 per share
• The Protective segment has been underperforming due to ties to the PC market and economic indicators
• Sum-of-parts valuation method used, with different multiples applied to Protective and Food segments, indicating significant upside potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
• Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
• Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

• Zephyr has now entered into binding documentation to fully-fund all expected drilling, completion and production test costs for the 5,500 ft extension and acidization of the State 36-2R well.
• The funding has increased to US$7.5 mm (US$7.0 mm previously).
• In return, the funding partner will earn a 50% WI in the well.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | three potential bidders for Akzo Nobel India • Unilever | agreement to sell Unox and Zwan to Zwanenberg Food Group • InPost | beats Polish peers with cut-off moment for Christmas Eve delivery

• Production in Uzbekistan in December to date has averaged 11,354 boe/d.
• Adjusting for one day of shutdown implies a production capacity of almost 12 mboe/d.
• The average production in December to date (11,354 boe/d) represents an increase of over 600 boe/d compared to the latest announcement (10,706 boe/d from 5 November to 11 November) and 1,344 boe/d compared to the 3Q24 average production.

• Kauntam Papers (KAUN IN) is implementing a significant capacity expansion project, estimated to increase production capacity by 50% within 18 months. Total Capex: 735Cr, including debt of Rs. 535 crore.
• Despite recent industry challenges, Kuantum Papers maintained a healthy EBITDA margin of approximately 22% Q2FY25. The company expects improved margins with anticipated demand increases and raw material price stabilization.
• Under Project NIRMAN, focused on Industry 4.0 integration, the company has successfully implemented online sensors and control logic in its wood bleach section, improving automation and efficiency.

• Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) recently had a decent move when it reported strong 3Q 2024 earnings in November. Despite that, it trades at a 12% dividend yield (65% payout).
• In our last insight, we flagged an increase in mine life to 19 years (vs 14 years), further clarifying high-margin cash flows for longer. 
• The company has 926 mn USD in net cash, ~50% of its market capitalization, and is trading at 5.5x PE (assuming 350 mn USD profits vs. 9MFY24 273 mn USD).

• • QatarEnergy has acquired 27.5% WI in PEL 90 from Chevron.
• While no details have been disclosed, it’s noteworthy that QatarEnergy is a partner of TotalEnergies on the adjacent PEL 56 license, where the Venus discovery is located.
• QatarEnergy is also a partner of Shell on PEL 39.

• The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).
• Energy Technology (13.4% of the index) was down 4.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.4% of the index) was down 1.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.2%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.6%.
• Top 10 Performers: DCFC, GWTI, AMMP, AVL, LOOP, INVZ, WAVE, REE, SPI, PNPN

Almost exactly half way through its financial year, Pan African has reiterated its production guidance for FY25 of 215,000oz – not least as a result of c 9,000oz gold produced at MTR in H125 following a seamless ramp-up process that has proceeded ahead of schedule since commissioning in early October. As a consequence, we have revised our production expectations for FY25 up by 3,130oz (1.5%), although we have revised our normalised headline EPS (HEPS) expectations down by a modest 4.2% to reflect lower margin initial start-up production supplanting established, steady-state production from Evander and Barberton and the recent 3.0% strengthening of the rand against the US dollar. Note that production in H225 is expected to be 44.6%, or 38,590oz, higher than in H125. Guidance for FY26 was exactly in line with our prior expectations.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal
• In the US, November advance retail sales came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.5% revised p), bolstered by a jump in car purchases and solid online shopping during Black Friday.
• That said, retail sales excluding auto slowed to 0.2% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.2% revised p). Separately, November industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / -0.4% p), the third straight month of decline, owing to weaker utilities and mining output.

• Today, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.
• Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.
• Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.

• Rio doubles down on lithium investment in Rincon, with a US $2.5 billion expansion plan
• BHP and Rio have historically had differing views on commodities, with examples in Potash, aluminium, and mineral sands
• Rincon project aims to expand production to 60,000 tonnes per annum, with heavy reliance on DLE technology for extraction and processing

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.

• The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well has encountered four main hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs with a total true vertical depth of 121 feet, including the C7, Gacheta, Guadalupe, and Ubaque formations.
• The main pre-drill targets were the C7 and the Ubaque formations.
• The Gacheta and Guadalupe formations carried a higher risk, and encountering these two formations is a positive.

• PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (BUMA) is a holding company with an operational entity, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, which is one of the largest coal-mining contractors in Indonesia by production volume.
• Its two other subsidiaries, PT Banyubiru Sakti and PT Pulau Mutiara Persada, are non-active entities which held coal exploration permits.
• Formerly a textile business, BUMA was transformed into a real estate company in 2008 following the sale of the erstwhile business. 

• Crude Oil (CL1) has been steadily downtrending since June 2022. More recently (from the start of October) a flat bottom started to form, with attempts to rise higher.
• The front-month future (Feb25) is range bound at the moment, between 71 (top) and 66 (bottom).
• Our models see a strong barrier at 73, and a decent support at 67 for the next 2 weeks, check the insight to get all the details.

• What you need to know: • Trigon provided an update on the previously proposed acquisition of the Kombat Mine by Horizon Corporation.
• • Subject to final negotiation and approvals, the acquisition will consist of $30M plus between $10-20M in additional payments based on specific operational milestones.
• • TM also announced it has signed a binding loan agreement with Horizon for up to $5M to allow for the project to continue to advance.

• The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.
• Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.
• Asian Paints’ current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.

• The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged at 589 for the week ending on 13/Dec, after rising by seven the previous week.
• For the week ending 06/Dec, US oil production rose to a new high of 13.63m bpd from 13.50m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active US oil rigs was steady at 482, while the US gas rig count rose by one to 103.

• In a recent special call arranged by the management, Exxon Mobil has unveiled an ambitious strategy that could reshape its future and redefine its standing in the energy sector.
• Despite concerns about falling oil prices and industry-wide cautious spending, Exxon is doubling down on capital-intensive projects while expanding into emerging markets like carbon capture, hydrogen production, and advanced battery materials.
• The company’s bold moves include acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion, ramping up investments in the Permian Basin, and launching data-center-specific natural gas projects equipped with carbon capture technology.

• Algoma Central Corporation operates in three main segments: Inland Shipping, Ocean Shipping, and Product Tankers
• Inland Shipping serves customers in industries such as steel, cement, agriculture, and construction
• Algoma’s diversified operations in shipping make it an attractive investment opportunity for smaller accounts looking for undervalued stocks with growth potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• WTI futures rose 6.1% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by China’s policy easing plans and supply concerns from sanctions on Russia and Iran.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell 1.15 from 1.24 (06/Dec) last week, as call volume rose by 21.7% WoW while put volume increased by 12.6%.  
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.85 from 0.88 last week. Call OI rose by 7.0% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

• Petrobras ADR (PBR) is a long-term investment opportunity for patient income-driven investors
• Petrobras is one of the world’s largest oil companies with a market capitalization of $89 billion and total hydrocarbon production of 2.8MMbpd
• Despite facing challenges over the past 20 years, including the Car Wash scandal, Petrobras has implemented changes and reforms, making it a potentially attractive investment for the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
• For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
• Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and >30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 

• January-October 2024 exports yield US$2.54 billion, up 17% YoY
• 405% rise in value YoY in exports to Malaysia during Jan-Oct 2024
• Michelin plans to source rice husks from Vietnam for tire-making

• SOC lacks the necessary permits to begin production by the end of 2024 after the California Coastal Commission held its final meeting of the year.  
• SOC has been guiding for Q4 2024 as the start date of its operations. We do not believe this possibility exists with approximately two weeks left in the year. 
• SOC has experienced meaningful setbacks that are likely to lead to a long process of nothing occurring.

• Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. 
• Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.
• Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.