Energy &amp; Materials Sector

This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of >2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with >US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.

Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports

China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.
China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.
Apart from China, the world’s largest refining – not just the largest miner – who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?

Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!

The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes.
Safety remains a priority, yet the company faced three fatalities, underscoring ongoing safety challenges.
Leadership changes have impacted the structure, with board addition Anne Wade contributing her expertise to strategic committees.

MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported

By Rahul Jain

MOIL is India’s largest manganese ore producer, contributing over 50% of the country’s production. Its dominant position provides a competitive advantage in meeting domestic demand.
Planned a capex of Rs24 billion until FY30. This investment will support brownfield expansions, greenfield projects, and modernization efforts, including shaft-sinking projects at Balaghat and Gumgaon mines.
Valuations: Trades at a marginal premium to historic valuations. Debt-free balance sheet, 25yr+ mine life gives confidence over LT execution of expansion plans.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.
Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.
Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

By Joe Jasper

Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ.
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April

Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.
Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more muted as unusually extreme market volatility boosts incentive for buyers to keep inventories at lower levels.
Uncertainty about outlook and sharp fall in crude oil prices so far this month add to incentive to hold back.
Blenders could face lower-than-usual inventories at start of Q2 2025 because of tight supply and firm demand in Q1 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils demand could face more pressure from concern about growing disconnect between base oils prices and crude oil and feedstock prices.
Widening base oil premium to feedstock and diesel prices points to sudden improvement in demand and tightening supply.
Timing of surge in base oils premium suggests it is linked more to slump in crude oil prices than to marked change in supply-demand fundamentals.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year.
Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India.
US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.

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Apr 15

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Suzhou Kematek, Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia, Grasim Industries, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, John Wood, Steel Authority of India, Gold, Aptargroup Inc, Crude Oil, Natural Gas and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot
Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands
Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara
Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans
Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

By Brian Freitas

There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot

By Angus Mackintosh

Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) is Indonesia’s largest steel pipe manufacturer with over 2,000 customers and exposure across diverse sectors, including infrastructure, autos, and Oil & Gas.
The company looks set to book strong growth in revenues and profits over the next 3 years, driven by increased capacity and improving product mix towards higher value products.
SPINDO has been shifting towards longer duration funding and reducing interest costs. Valuations are attractive on a 3x FY2025E PER, with a forecast dividend yield of 5%.

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

By Pranav Bhavsar

We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN) and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands

By Vinod Nedumudy

VRG’s Lao division scripts US$14.85 million in profit in 2024
VRG’s rubber output in Laos touches 34,592 tons in 2024
Prime Minister asks VRG to start tire units in Laos

Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Sidara’s 35p offer provides a 40% premium with no dilution, offering certainty and urgently needed capital, making it the most favorable path for shareholders amid financial distress.
A standalone capital raise of £342m at 20p would dilute existing shareholders by over 71%, highlighting the severe downside if the Sidara deal collapses or fails regulatory approval.
Having rejected Apollo’s 240p offer in 2023, the Board is now recommending a 35p bid—an 85% discount—after destroying credibility, mismanaging cash, and losing shareholder trust.

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

By Rahul Jain

SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

By The Commodity Report

President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.
Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.
Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday – for a limited time period of 90 days – presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1

By Upslope Capital Management

Q1 was challenging. However, in the two weeks since Mar 31, the world has changed, owing to an intense realignment of global trade policies.
This has swiftly aligned markets more with Upslope’s portfolio and approach.
April-to-date performance1 has been strong (approx. +7%), leaving the Fund +2% YTD (vs. -12% for the S&P Midcap 400).

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay

WTI futures fell 0.8% for the week ending 11/Apr, driven primarily by uncertainty around tariffs and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. rig count fell by seven to 583. The oil rig count dropped by nine to 480, while gas rigs grew by one to 97.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.80 on 11/Apr compared to 0.88 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 19.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 9.1%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts

For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8.1% on the back of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and warmer weather forecasts.
U.S. natural gas futures sharply fell on 08/April (Tue) and touched an eight-week low despite robust LNG exports.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 11/Apr compared to 0.97 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 6.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.8%.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Posco Future M, China Oilfield Services H, Anglo American Platinum , Copper, Iron Ore and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue
A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 Apr 2025): Sharp AH Premia Widening
Weekly Update (AMS, LION, Tariffs)
Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco
Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue

By Sanghyun Park

All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.
Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.
Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that’s our cue to act.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 Apr 2025): Sharp AH Premia Widening

AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion is mild given how much AH is widening again. Two weeks in a row we see a big net move.
For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. They are still widening despite really big net SOUTHBOUND buying.
I expected the right thing to do was hunker down and be flat H/A risk. Hs underperformed As by 3.7% over two weeks so it’s tough to be flat enough.

Weekly Update (AMS, LION, Tariffs)

By Richard Howe

This week the only thing that mattered was tariffs.
In my recommendation update section, I will provide some commentary on which recommendations are most impacted by tariffs.
On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of increased tariffs on most imported goods, maintaining a base tariff of 10% during this period.

Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

By Sameer Taneja

The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market’s promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.
Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.
The dollar’s depreciation, Trump’s flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.

Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.
With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices.
With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.

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Apr 13

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, James Hardie Industries Plc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)
Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
The TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.
Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

James Hardie (JHX AU)‘s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a “bad” deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
The Biden Administration’s USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.

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Apr 12

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CRH , James Hardie Industries Plc, Jindal Steel & Power, Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited, Rio2, Glencore , Arq and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible
James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance
The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan
Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project
Glencore: Initiation of Coverage
ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

[Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in June 2025. BUT… there are multiple live spin-off and M&A events likely to trigger intra-review index changes. Three are likely!

James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance

On the 24th March, building materials outfit James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU) announced a cash/scrip merger with decking manufacturer Azek (AZEK US).
JHX is offering 1.034 new JHX shares plus US$26.45/share in cash for each Azek share, or an implied $56.88 all-in price (at the time), a punchy 37.4% premium to undisturbed.
Apart from pushback on pricing for Azek, JHX shareholders have voiced opposition over the ASX granting a waiver, allowing the merger to proceed without a vote from JHX shareholders

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

By Sudarshan Bhandari

The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
It’s a pre-revenue tungsten mining company with the world’s largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of mineral resources of tungsten trioxide (WO3) in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
Mining operation is conducted by a local subsidiary while JIRI is responsible for the processing operation and sales of the product to its customers.

RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • We visited Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile on March 25th.
• The visit was valuable in better understanding the layout of the project, progress on construction, the scale of the asset, and team behind it.
• As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas.

Glencore: Initiation of Coverage

Glencore PLC’s 2024 financial results reflect a robust operational year, with the company reporting an adjusted EBITDA of $14.4 billion, indicating strong performance across its industrial and marketing segments.
The industrial segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 billion, primarily driven by a healthy metals business despite challenging conditions in the metallurgical market.
The recent integration of the EVR coal business contributed significantly, adding $1 billion to EBITDA in the latter half of the year.

ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

By Water Tower Research

Following ARQ’s 4Q24 results, we are fine-tuning our estimates and introducing quarterly forecasts.
ARQ is an environmental tech company producing activated carbon (AC) products that reduce or reverse environmental liabilities.
Among many applications, AC products remove “forever chemicals” from public drinking water, remediate contaminated soil and ground water, and remove impurities from renewable natural gas.

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Apr 11

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Posco Future M, De Grey Mining, Gold Road Resources, Copper, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Chord Energy , Noble Corp Plc, Valeura Energy Inc, Pbf Energy Inc Class A, Arrow Exploration Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations
Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates
The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)
Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume
Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!
Noble Corporation: An Insight Into Market Demand, Growth Prospects & Key Growth Drivers!
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Lower oil prices could generate acquisition opportunities
PBF Energy’s Renewable Diesel Expansion & Strategic Ventures Can Truly Catalyze Its Growth!
Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Stable Production, 10% Cash Increase

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations

The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. There will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
We expect one-way flows of US$81mm for June 2025 which translates to a turnover of 1.4%.

Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates

After rejecting Gold Fields (GFI SJ)‘s Offer last month, calling terms “low ball and opportunistic”, Gold Road (GOR AU) has done a bang-up job how NOT to underpin that position.
After correcting minor information (on the 4th April) to an Australian Roadshow Investor Presentation, GOR has now retracted details of the underground mining potential at the Gruyere mine.
But don’t expect any new developments in this transaction until after De Grey Mining (DEG AU)‘s Scheme vote on the 16th April.

The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

By Andreas Steno

Greetings from Copenhagen.
We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for all trade partners except China.
So that initial line—“risk sentiment was improving a tad this afternoon as markets likely see the worst headlines and data behind us”—can now be upgraded to markets partying like there’s no tomorrow.

Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume

By Vinod Nedumudy

Components crossing US–Mexico–Canada corridor face disruption
Reshoring production to US would involve multi-year lead times
USTMA expects U.S. tire shipments of 340.4 million units in 2025

Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!

Chord Energy reported a transformational year in 2024, significantly strengthened by its strategic combination with Enerplus.
This merger, completed in May 2024, positioned the company as a leading entity in the Williston Basin.
The integration was marked by operational and corporate synergies, enhancing Chord Energy’s scale and efficiency.

Noble Corporation: An Insight Into Market Demand, Growth Prospects & Key Growth Drivers!

Noble Corporation’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call provided a comprehensive overview of its operational and financial performance while highlighting key strategic initiatives and market outlook.
The company recently completed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore, enhancing its positioning in the deepwater drilling market.
This integration is progressing well, with $50 million of the targeted $100 million synergies already realized, reflecting operational efficiencies.

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Lower oil prices could generate acquisition opportunities

By Auctus Advisors

• 1Q25 production averaged 23.9 mboe/d, which is in line with previous indications.
This included a planned seven-day annual maintenance shutdown at the Nong Yao field near the end of the quarter.
Production resumed on 1 April.

PBF Energy’s Renewable Diesel Expansion & Strategic Ventures Can Truly Catalyze Its Growth!

PBF Energy’s most recent commentary on its financial performance and operational highlights underscores a mix of operational resilience and external challenges.
A notable incident was the fire at the Martinez refinery in early February, which has posed operational disruptions.
While the company is in the early stages of investigating and recovering from this event, it emphasized appreciation for the quick response from first responders and reiterated its commitment to maintaining a strong relationship with local and state authorities.

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Stable Production, 10% Cash Increase

By Auctus Advisors

Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels.
The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir.
The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing.

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Apr 10

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Jinhong Gas , SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Verallia, Amerigo Resources , Southern Energy Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June
EUDR May Be Subject To Revision
BWGI’s Tender Offer for Verallia
ARG: Slight Miss on Q1 Production; Copper Price Supports FCF
Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): First recompletion expected by the end of 2Q25

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

There could be 1 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the June rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 1.04bn (US$141m). Passives need to trade between 0.65-1.65x ADV in the potential changes.
Jinhong Gas (688106 CH) is also a potential delete from the STAR100 Index and that will lead to increased passive selling in the stock.

EUDR May Be Subject To Revision

By Farah Miller

Importers labeling rubber used as synthetic or compounded to avoid due diligence
Automated checks may miss incorrect documentation
Ongoing review for the list of products which need documentation before entering EU

BWGI’s Tender Offer for Verallia

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BWGI proposes a voluntary tender offer at €30 per share (cum dividend), aiming for majority control without delisting, supported by the Moreira Salles family’s substantial financial capacity and credibility.
BWGI’s offer, backed by a $26 billion family office, presents a credible liquidity event; however, valuation and DCF analysis suggest room for a higher bid or competing interest.
Market volatility may increase investor preference for deal certainty, potentially improving acceptance of BWGI’s offer despite its modest premium over Verallia’s recent trading levels and long-term valuation benchmarks.

ARG: Slight Miss on Q1 Production; Copper Price Supports FCF

By Atrium Research

Quarterly copper production was 13.2Mlbs, below our estimate of 14.9Mlbs due to the scheduled annual plant maintenance.
Cash costs came in at $2.22/lb, above our estimate of $1.88/lb.
Copper prices rose substantially in Q1, followed by a sharp drop in recent days due to U.S. tariffs, despite this, copper remains high at >$4.00/lb.

Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): First recompletion expected by the end of 2Q25

By Auctus Advisors

Southern has raised US$5 mm in new equity at a price of 3.8p per share (C$0.07 per share).
Investors participating in the transaction will also receive a full warrant for each new share, with an exercise price of 4.8p per share (C$0.09 per share).
US$3.1 mm of outstanding convertible debenture will be converted into equity on the same terms.

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Apr 09

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Active Energy Group, Base Oil and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/03/2025
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/03/2025

By Hybridan

The international biomass based renewable energy business, today announced that its European patent application has been allowed under a Patent Application for its innovative “Process for Beneficiating and Cleaning Biomass”.
This forthcoming Patent strengthens the intellectual property portfolio underpinning the Company’s CoalSwitch technology, a next-generation solution for producing sustainable biomass fuel.
The newly allowed patent application will grant protection in several EU countries reinforcing Active Energy’s innovation in the global biomass industry.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.
Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.
That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

US base oils prices rise versus crude oil/competing fuel prices.
Base oils margins rise because of slump in crude oil prices.
Base oils premium to VGO previously stayed in relatively narrow range even with round of plant maintenance work and at time of year when demand faces seasonal boost.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April

US base oils demand could weaken in face of widespread market volatility and slumping crude prices.
Any slowdown in demand would be at a time of year when consumption typically gets a seasonal boost.
More muted demand would cushion impact of round of base oils plant maintenance work.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.
US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.
Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

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Apr 08

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: De Grey Mining, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Crude Oil, Jindal Stainless, Iron Ore, Base Oil, Natural Gas, Reliance Industries, Medco Energi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy
Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare
Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook
Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market
Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/14] WTI Dropped to Four-Year Low on Trump’s Tariffs

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.

Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy

By Vinod Nedumudy

White House said on March 26 that the 25% tariff would be applied to imported passenger vehicles
Annexe II, which refers to tariff exclusions, mentions rubber
Stellantis halts its Canada, Mexico production

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

By The Commodity Report

*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).
The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.
“We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.

Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored

By Rahul Jain

Management has lowered its volume and margin guidance over the last few quarters even as they have gradually lowered their export share to less than 10%.
Despite a 40% drop from its high over the last few months JDSL trades at premium to its historic valuations. Significant investments in Indonesia to raise capacity is positive
A 20-25% increase in volumes (through Indonesia investments) over the next 2-3 years coupled with 20% ROIC and Debt <1X EBITDA implies that premium valuations could sustain.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

By Pranay Yadav

SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April

Asia’s base oils demand could fall in face of slumping crude oil prices and concern about slower-than-expected economic growth in the region.
Concern about weaker demand cuts fundamentals-related support that could cushion against impact of falling crude oil prices.
Concern about more muted demand and expected improvement in base oils supply in coming weeks would contrast with increasingly high base oils margins caused by lower crude oil prices.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook

For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.6% on the back of Trump’s tariffs and warmer weather forecasts.
U.S. natural gas futures continued to decline on 07/April (Mon), hovering around a seven-week low and extending last week’s 5.6% loss.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.97 on 04/Apr from 0.98 on 28/Mar. Call OI increased by 5.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.

Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Reliance Industries (RIL IN) has relaunched Campa Cola with a disruptive INR 10 price tag, targeting Bharat through regional branding, aggressive retail margins, and deep distribution.
Campa’s revival is shaking up India’s INR 50,000 crore soft drink market, challenging Pepsi and Coke with rapid share gains and frenzied rural demand.
This is not nostalgia, it’s Ambani’s Jio-style FMCG disruption. Expect more brand revivals, deeper pricing wars, and a new cola war driven from the grassroots.

Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Medco Energi’s performance remained robust in FY 2024, with the company reporting stable earnings but improved cash flows.
FCF was positive and net debt declined, supported by the disposal of Medco’s Vietnamese assets.
Consolidated Net Debt/EBITDA was healthy at 2.3x.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/14] WTI Dropped to Four-Year Low on Trump’s Tariffs